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Rick Allen, Director, Oil & Gas Consulting Services June 2, 2013
5% 33% 40%
Who We Are
Ground-up approach to Energy Data and Analytics 400+ Customers Division of Platts (McGraw-Hill)
22%
Majors, Producers, Mktrs, Industrials Pipelines, Utilities, Midstream Financial and Hedge Government, Associations, Consultants
What We Do
Reports and Consulting Services Collect, Analyze, Interpret and Distribute Data, Information and Knowledge to the Energy Industry
Key Take-Aways
North American oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production gains are sending the continent toward energy selfsufficiency In the 10-year period ending in 2017, U.S. oil, gas and NGLs production combined is forecasted to grow by 62 Bcfe/d, or 10 MMBOE/d This rapid ramp in production has happened through increasing operator efficiencies Massive capital investment in infrastructure development will be required to deliver these commodities to market Displaced imports (and exports) will balance the market
1/-2
OTHER ROCKIES
188/+110
WILLISTON
1/-2 17/-13
26/+17
MICHIGAN
WIND RIVER
POWDER RIVER
3/-3
ILLINOIS
48/+30
D-J ANADARKO
MARCELLUS DRY
GREEN RIVER
31/+27
UTICA
36/+11
UINTA
PICEANCE
13/-10
5/-3
ARK FAYETTEVILLE
CALIFORNIA
46/+18
7/-1
0/+0
RATON
332/+73
EAST TX
15/-22
OTHER APPALACHIAN
ARK WOODFORD
2/-27
ARKLA
27/-102
66/+7
TX GULF
AL-MS-FL LA GULF
17/+6
24/+9
1887
CHANGE
TOTAL
228/+168
111/+27
OFFSHORE
+537
Active rig count: May 3, 2013 / Change in rig count from January 1, 2010
IRR
$2
$3
$4
$5
CAPP
WTI
HH
MB NGL
Brent
Source: ICE, EIA
U.S. Oil and Gas Combined add Another 7.5 MMBOE/d by 2018
Cumulative Increase in Production Since 2005
14.0 12.0 10.0 MMboe/d 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 7.5 MMBoe/d 84 72 60 Bcfe/d 48 36 24 12 -
Gas
NGL
Crude
Source: BENTEK NG Market Call Long Term, NGL Market Call, and Crude Oil Market Call Data as of May 6, 2013
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Marcellus
+607%
Fayetteville Shale
129,813
+190%
53
+130%
4,840 2,104 1,006
+144%
2,454 18,360
-66%
20 7 18
+8%
$2.6 $2.8
Wells Per Yr. Avg. Lateral 30 Day Ave. Per Rig Length ( Feet) Prod Rate (Mcfd)
No. Days
37
11
Rig Count
Peak Rig 106 149 334 241 68 Jan 2013 70 26 288 64 16
Horizontal Rigs
13
14
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Fcst
26%
Canadian Imports
LNG Imports
Mexican Exports
LNG Exports
Net Imports
Mexican Power Expansion 7. Net Midstream Frontera: 2,100 MMcf/d, 2014 2013Nov. 2025 17,405 MW MMcf/d Incremental Export Capacity by 2015: 4,275 2.5 Bcf/d @ 80%; 7.5 heat rate Total Export Capacity by 2015: 9,598 MMcf/d
Source: Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE)
19
12
15.6 11.5 10 21 8 24
Source: BENTEK
mtpa
20
Gulf Coast Export Terminals: Freeport LNG 1.76 Bcf/d (13.2 mtpa) Lake Charles 2 Bcf/d (15 mtpa) Sabine Pass 2.4 Bcf/d (18 mtpa) Cameron 1.6 Bcf/d (12 mtpa)
Bcf/d
Cameron DC
22
0 (2) (4) (6) (8) (10) (12) (14) Net Long/Short (Bcf/d eq.)
24
135 Mb/d
65 Mb/d
545
1500
1770
2840
900
3500
730
Note: Updated as of 1/15/2013
30
Canada
U.S.
Add 3.2 MMB/d; 2.4 from These Top Three Oil Plays
Rest of U.S.
Source: HPDI & May 2013 BENTEK Crude Oil PADD Balances
Permian
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Note: Waterborne Import volumes represent avg non-Canadian imports from Nov 2012 Jan 2013. Light >32 API, Heavy < 28 API.
33
Note: Waterborne Import volumes represent avg non-Canadian imports from Nov 2012 Jan 2013. Light >32 API, Heavy < 28 API.
Bakken
Niobrara
Anadarko
Permian
Source: Petroleum Project Tracker
Not All Projects Shown
Eagle Ford
Proposed Pipeline
35
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Domestic Production U.S. Waterborne Imports Canadian Imports % Non-Canadian
Mb/d
Key Take-Aways
North American oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production gains are sending the continent toward energy self-sufficiency In the 10-year period ending in 2017, U.S. oil, gas and NGLs production combined is forecasted to grow by 62 Bcfe/d, or 10 MMBOE/d This rapid ramp in production has happened through increasing operator efficiencies Massive capital investment in infrastructure development will be required to deliver these commodities to market Displaced imports (and exports) will balance the market