July 12, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com! ValuEngine.com.

VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 75% of our universe and 40.6% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
14795.79 3326.38 1007.7 1634.2

Thurs. Close
15460.92 3493.81 1033.18 1675.02

Change
665.13 167.43 25.48 40.82

% Change
4.50% 5.03% 2.53% 2.50%

YTD
17.93% 15.23% 21.78% 17.30%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 24.96% 75.04% 10.06% 40.60%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.37% 2.13% 2.29% 0.85% 1.35% 1.71% 0.70% 0.96% 1.05% 1.32% 0.97% 1.93% 1.32% 0.88% 1.15% 1.20%

MTD
3.56% 6.20% 4.23% 3.88% 4.94% 3.79% 3.99% 3.37% 5.22% 4.58% 3.69% 3.75% 3.58% 4.49% 2.56% 3.81%

YTD
24.77% 36.18% 0.79% 69.32% 23.78% 27.75% 27.60% 14.61% 23.04% 25.47% 199.17% 5.43% 11.46% 31.39% 23.40% 12.76%

Valuation
20.13% overvalued 24.94% overvalued 11.39% undervalued 16.23% overvalued 20.32% overvalued 12.69% overvalued 24.40% overvalued 21.64% overvalued 17.97% overvalued 17.14% overvalued 16.02% overvalued 11.49% overvalued 4.23% overvalued 25.60% overvalued 16.07% overvalued 8.65% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
28.52% 40.54% -25.78% 18.79% 17.90% 33.27% 25.43% 15.09% 16.92% 23.47% 15.21% 15.17% 5.38% 34.85% 18.75% 10.59%

P/E Ratio
17.76 17.81 19.01 23.28 30 24.36 24.21 21.3 17.65 20.21 25.01 15.81 27.46 22.72 21.48 20.41

Sector TalkBasic Materials

Below, we present the latest data on leading Basic Materials Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
FBR SLCA PPP KGC ABX

Name
FIBRIA CELULOSE US SILICA HOLDI PRIMERO MINING KINROSS GOLD BARRICK GOLD CP

Mkt Price
11.34 22.29 4.54 4.95 15.22

Valuation(%)
-4.44 -7.07 -5.16 -64.84 -60.72

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.85 119.39 76.65 -37.1 -56.45

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
FBR SLCA PPP KGC ABX

Name
FIBRIA CELULOSE US SILICA HOLDI PRIMERO MINING KINROSS GOLD BARRICK GOLD CP

Mkt Price
11.34 22.29 4.54 4.95 15.22

Valuation(%)
-4.44 -7.07 -5.16 -64.84 -60.72

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.85 119.39 76.65 -37.1 -56.45

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
SLCA PPP KGC FBR ABX

Name
US SILICA HOLDI PRIMERO MINING KINROSS GOLD FIBRIA CELULOSE BARRICK GOLD CP

Mkt Price
22.29 4.54 4.95 11.34 15.22

Valuation(%)
-7.07 -5.16 -64.84 -4.44 -60.72

Last 12-M Retn(%)

119.39 76.65 -37.1 56.85 -56.45

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
CHMT BHP AXLL BZ CDE

Name
CHEMTURA CORP BHP BILLITN LTD AXIALL CORP BOISE INC COEUR DALENE MI

Mkt Price
22.13 61.79 42.76 8.8 12.21

Valuation(%)
300 253.4 68.55 49.5 47.64

Last 12-M Retn(%)

57.51 -2.51 57.03 28.28 -22.38

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00

This week's free download is our report on 3M (MMM). 3M Company is a diversified technology company with leading positions in consumer and office; display and graphics; electronics and telecommunications; health care; industrial; safety, security and protection services; transportation and other businesses. They are an integrated enterprise characterized by substantial intercompany cooperation in research, manufacturing and marketing of products.

ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on 3M CO for 201307-11. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that 3M CO has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on 3M HERE.

What's Hot-FDIC Report is Updated

ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is an expert on the US Banking System and uses the health of the system as a leading economic indicator. He distills his thoughts on the banking system in our FDIC Report. The latest update of the report is now available. For the purposes of this report, problem banks are publicly traded FDIC insured financial institutions overexposed to Construction & Development Loans and/or Nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans, with 1-Engine--Strong Sell, or 2EngineSell. We also include all other engine-rated banks-- and those with n/a ratings but forecast figure data points according to our models-- in violation of FDIC guidelines vis-a-vis loan exposures. Those that are not covered by ValuEngine due to poor fundamentals or because there is no available EPS estimate but are still in violation of FDIC guidelines are also listed at the end of this section as a courtesy to our subscribers.. As of July 9, 2013, there were 208 banks overexposed to C&D and/or CRE loans in the ValuEngine database. There were 107 banks overexposed to C&D and/or CRE loans with full forecast and valuation coverage. Of these overexposed banks, one was rated a 1-Engine Strong Sell, seven were rated 2- Engine Sells, 191 were rated 3-Engine Holds, seven were rated a 4-Engine Buy, and none were rated a 5Engine Strong Buy. This means that there are currently 8 banks rated Sell or Strong Sell that are also overexposed to C&D and/or CRE loans. This table tracks bank ratings and the number of problems bank back to Q1 2010. We continue to see slight improvement in the bank system as far as the list of problem banks is concerned, but overall the vast majority of institutions only rate a HOLD..

Q1 2010
TOTAL BANKS STRONG SELL % SELL % HOLD % BUY % STRONG BUY % PROBLEM BANKS %
401 31.9 37.3 67.3 14.6 3.1 69.2

Q1 2011
224 23.1 33.3 41.2 4.6 1.4 56.5

Q1 2012
300 14.4 8.4 53.4 20.1 2.3 22.8

May 2013
198 1.0 3.7 57.0 4.4 0.0 4.7

Q1 2013
205 1.0 2.3 62.8 2.7 0.0 3.4

July 2013
208 0.3 2.3 64.1 2.3 0.0 2.7

Our latest ValuEngine FDIC Report is now posted. The report contains loan exposure and/or ValuEngine datapoints on valuation, forecast, and ratings for all of the institutions on our List of Problem Banks. Subscribers may download it HERE. Others interested in the report may find out more on our website by clicking the image below.

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(2.580) Daily, weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.673, 2.737 and 3.227 with annual, monthly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.476, 2.284, 1.981 and 1.719. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold (($1284.2) My weekly value level is $1193.0 with a daily pivot at $1272.1, and monthly,annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1289.4, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil ($104.59) Monthly, weekly and quarterly value levels are $101.69, $98.07 and $91.75 with daily, semiannual and annual risky levels at $108.80, $109.84 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3091) Daily, semiannual and quarterly value levels are 1.2897, 1.2477 and 1.1545 with a weekly pivot at 1.3043, and monthly and annual risky levels at 1.3231 and 1.3257. Major Indices Daily Dow: (15,461) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 15,120, 14,288 and 12,696 with daily and monthly pivots at 15,484 and 15,437, the May 22 all time high at 15,542.40, and my semiannual risky level at 16,490. S&P 500 (1675.0) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1628.6, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with daily and monthly pivots at 1676.3 and 1669.0, the May 22 all time high at 1687.18, and my semiannual risky level at 1743.5. NASDAQ (3578) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 3458, 3284 and 2806 with monthly and daily pivots at 3510 and 3587, the July 11 multiyear high at 3579.29 and semiannual risky level at 3759. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3059) Quarterly, monthly, weekly and annual value levels are 2983, 2978, 2941 and 2463 with a daily pivot at 3053, the July 11 high at 3060.67 and semiannual risky level at 3304. Dow Transports (6472) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 6236, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with daily and monthly risky levels at 6497 and 6758, the May 20 all time high at 6562.85 and semiannual risky level at 7104. Russell 2000 (1033.18) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 999.43, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a monthly pivot at 1030.75, and daily / semiannual risky levels at 1042.50 / 1089.42. The SOX (486.56) Quarterly and annual value levels are 404.59 and 338.03 with daily and weekly pivots at 480.36 and 471.68, a monthly risky level at 496.16 and semiannual risky level at 533.56. Dow Utilities: (496.05) Daily and weekly value levels are 484.17 and 460.03 with a monthly pivot at 489.78, and quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 510.38, 523.33 and 540.37.

Stock of the Day Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter. Intel (INTC) ($23.99)Intel Corporation is one of the world's largest semiconductor chip maker. The Company develops advanced integrated digital technology products, primarily integrated circuits, for industries such as computing and communications. It also develops platforms, which it defines as integrated suites of digital computing technologies that are designed and configured to work together to provide an optimized user computing solution compared to components that are used separately. Intel designs and manufactures computing and communications components, such as microprocessors, chipsets, motherboards, and wireless and wired connectivity products, as well as platforms that incorporate these components. The Company sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, PC and network communications products users, and other manufacturers of industrial and communications equipment. Intel Corporation is based in Santa Clara, California. Analysis Intel has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $21.48, which makes the stock 8.2% overvalued, The ValuEngine one-year price target is $24.81. The daily chart for Intel shows rising momentum with the stock above its 200day simple moving average at $22.07 and below its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $24.14 and $24.23. My monthly value level is $22.95 with a weekly pivot at $24.01 and quarterly risky level at $25.38.

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach

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