Promoting the use of fossil fuels & protecting the future climate

Fossil fuels are here to stay, it can be said that without them modern life is not possible. However they do have a damaging effect on the climate and are strong drivers in climate change. By adapting to climate change a mitigating the damage done by fossil fuels, their continued use can be protected, which is vital for economic development.

Samuel Woollard 200616037s.woollard@liv.ac.uk

Todays life would not be quite as modern without using fossil fuels. They are forecast (figure 1)[1] to supply 81% of global energy demand by 2030[2] , by providing around 113 Million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
[3]
8.2%
2.7 %

. Without continued support from fossil fuels

81%

Demand

economies would be forced into recession, however economic development will undoubtedly continue to drive up energy demand [4]. The majority (51%), (figure 2)[5], for current energy demand comes from the industrial sector. Even though industry will use more energy in 2030 than in 2012, there will be much greater growth in the transport and other (domestic, agriculture, residential etc) giving these sectors a greater share in the market (figure 4)[6]. The driver for this increase can be seen to be from Non-OECD countries ( developing economies)[2]

Figure 1: Forecast for global energy by source

Figure 3: World Energy Consumption by Sector 2030

9% Industry 29% Transport 34% Other sectors

28%

Non energy use

Figure 2: World Energy Consumption by Sector

Figure 4: World Energy Consumption by Sector 2030

The six greenhouse gases (GHG) (Carbon Dioxide - CO2, Methane-CH4, Nitrous OxideN2O, Hydrofluorocarbons -HFC, Perfluorocarbons -PFC, Sulphur hexafluoride -SF6) covered by the Kyoto Protocol were estimated to be 552.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e)[7]. (Figure 5) shows that in 2010 CO2 took up 84% of the total GHG emissions in the US[7]. GHGs trap heat in the atmosphere causing global warming. There are three ways they affect climate change. Concentration, Life span and Influence. With the Concentration of CO2 increasing[8] (figure 6), its life span in the atmosphere can last for thousands of years[9] and its influence or Global Warming Potential (GWP) has a GWP of 1 and acts as the benchmark for all other GHG GWPs. The low GWP means that CO2 absorbs less energy that other GHGs per mass unit. However the abundance of CO2 means that the total energy absorption is still very high.
Figure 6: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2010

What is the effect

Figure 5: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2010

http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/

The increase in temperature will melt the ice caps as shown in (figure 7)
[11]

[10]

, will produce

Consequence on climate

more water and cause the sea level to rise by between 220mm and 500mm in the 20th century as shown in (figure 8) . This rise will cause flooding, erosion and saltwater

intrusion. This would prove a disaster for those who live and work on the coast or lowlands (especially below sea level). Flooding from sea -level rise is shown in (figure 9) to have the largest impact on low lying land[12]. The flooding will cause damage to costal structures, farm land and force communities for move from their homes
[13]

Figure 7: Melting Ice Cap

Figure 8: Predicted Sea -level

. When the

sea-level increases, the saltwater will infiltrate and contaminate fresh water supplies in aquifers, there is also the risk of farmland becoming contaminated with salt -water. With the problems of living on or near the coast, a large amount of the population will have to migrate away from these areas further inland [12].

Figure 9: Places of vulnerability to a rise in sea -level

Relative vulnerability if coastal deltas as when by the indicative population potentially displaced by current sea - level trends to 2050 (Extreme = >1 million; High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5000; following Ericson et al, 2006) Image from Centre for Ocean Solutions; credited to Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change. University of Cambridge press pp.327

Adaption (instant, decades) and mitigation (hundreds of years) can reduce the impact that climate change has on the planet and society. We need to adapt as mitigation will not have any effect on climate change over the next decade, and we need to mitigate as the cost of adaption in hundreds of years will come at too great a cost [14]. ADAPTION: without mitigation is likely to cost $100 -600 billion [15]. The IPCC give examples of adaption options for Water; Agriculture; Infrastructure; Health; Tourism; Transport; Energy etc. The projected productivity for agriculture shows a large reduction in many countries (figure 10)
[16]

Adaption & Mitigation

. Agriculture strategy is to adjust planting dates and crop variety;

Figure 10; Agriculture productivity 2080

crop relocation; improved land management, e.g. erosion control and soil protection through tree planting[17]. Mitigation for agriculture involves increasing soils carbon storage capacity; improve rice cultivation and livestock and manure management to reduce CH 4 emissions; dedicated crops to replace fossil fuel use.; improve energy efficiency [18]. Another way to mitigate is to increase the use of carbon capture technology. This would enable the carbon to be captured at source and dealt with in a controlled manner such as being locked underground or put into a bio-pond that uses bacteria which turns the CO2 into O2 (figure 11)[18] .

Figure 11; Carbon Capture

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) REN21, 2012. Renewables 2012 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat) http://www.map.ren21.net/GSR/GSR2012.pdf BP, 2012: Energy outlook 2030 http://www.current2current.com/CURRENT2CURRENT_new_site/Fossil_Fuels.html N. Tanaka, 2007: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7081679.stm) EIA 2012 EIA 2008 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases.html www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/ghg -concentrations.html D.Archer et al. 2009. Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Stanford University. http://ecoble.com/2008/01/11/how -can -you -question -climate-change-now/ http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq -5-1-figure-1.html Image from Centre for Ocean Solutions; credited to Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change. University of Cambridge pres s pp.327 Nicholls, R.J., Hoozemas, F.M.J., and Marchand, M., Global Environmental Change. 9, 69 -87 (1999). IPCC Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Martin Parry et al (2009) Assessing the costs of Adaption to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCC and Other Recent Estimates, International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, London. http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/71632/feeding -10-billion -hotter - planet -part -ii http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms4.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_sequestration -2009-10-07.svg