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()

1028


Bureau of Energy

1
1


Bureau of Energy

101115
1027


Bureau of Energy


Bureau of Energy

1.1996~2012GDP88%
78%62%GDP

2.

GDP

GDP
188%
178%
162%

1996=100

(2013)

GDP

157%

GDP
148%
129%

1996=100

IEA(2013)


Bureau of Energy

()
1. 201250%
(19.5%)(18.0%)
1.5%
2. 1996~2012

1996=100

(2013)
5


Bureau of Energy


Bureau of Energy

(1/19)

()
()
2013~2030GDP3.17%
2013~2030GDP
3.79%
1.
2011~2025GDP1.48%
2. 43
(PETPVAEVA)
202020%2011~2025GDP2.96%
3.
2011~2025GDP2.70%
4. 2011~2025
GDP1.80%
5.
2011~2025GDP5.29%
6. 3%


Bureau of Energy

(2/19)

()
()
1.

2.

3.


ESCO
8


Bureau of Energy

(3/19)

()
()(1/2)
103.5%
2013~2030
2.14%

208
149
92

36

1027


Bureau of Energy

(4/19)

()
()(2/2)

1. 201227.96(/)2005
24%2030201225%2013
20301.59%
2. 2013~20300.561996~2012
0.72

3.

4. 2013~2030
2.14%1996~20124.49%

10


Bureau of Energy

(5/19)

()
()
1.

2.

3.

2013~2030GDP3.17%
ECFA
2013~2030GDP
2.96%

GDP

11


Bureau of Energy

(6/19)

()
()

1. (EICT)

2.
3.

4.
5.
6.

7.
8. ISO50001

9. 26
10. (0:00-06:00)

11.
12.

13.
14. (EICT)
15.
16.
17.
12


Bureau of Energy

(7/19)

()
()
1. 2013~20302.92%
2.16%
2. 2010~20300.74
2000~20100.93
3.

99

45
13

1027

71

13


Bureau of Energy

(8/19)

()
()
1.
2003~20123.212.857047,168
8186,43216%
2012
2013-20300.06%
2. 50%
30%20%

3.40

20032013

3.20

3.00

2.80
2.60
2003

2005

2007

1027

2009

2011

2013

14


Bureau of Energy

(9/19)

()
()
1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.

15


Bureau of Energy

(10/19)

()
()
1. 2013~2030
0.94%0.76%
2.

19
17
14
12

1027
16


Bureau of Energy

(11/19)

()
()
1. (AMI)
(100~104)
(105~109)
(110~119)
2.
(109~110)(105~108)(108)
(105~106)(105)(106)
3.

4. (107114)
5.
(104)(105)(104)
(112)(109)
6. (103)
17


Bureau of Energy

(12/19)

()
()
1.

: ()
: ()(
)
2. :()
3. :
4. :LED

5. :(CCCW PUMP)
6. :
(5)

7. :

18


Bureau of Energy

(13/19)

()
()
1. 2013~2030
1.85%
1.78%
2.

1.62
1.62

1.79

1.67

1027

19


Bureau of Energy

(14/19)

()
()
GDP2013-20302.26%


20


Bureau of Energy

(15/19)

()
()
1.

2. ()

()

)
()

21


Bureau of Energy

(16/19)

()
()
1. 2013~2030
2.27%2.16%
2. GDP195030%20071.45%
2012
1.5%
3.

0.64

0.72

0.56

0.49

1027

22


Bureau of Energy

(17/19)

()
()
1.
1%

2.

3.

4.

(
)
(
)
(

23


Bureau of Energy

(18/19)

()
()
1.

2.

3.

1.

2.
3.
4.

5.
6.
7.

8.
9.

10.

11.

12.

24


Bureau of Energy

(19/19)

()
()
1. 2013~20306.11%
6.10%
2. (
)

3.

0.098
0.096

0.093

1027

0.094

25


Bureau of Energy

26


Bureau of Energy

GDP
1. 2013~2030GDP3.17%
2.
GDP
GDP

1027

1996~2012

6.27%

3.65%

0.34%

4.12%

2013~2030

3.79%

2.96%

2.26%

3.17%

GDP

1027

27


Bureau of Energy

2013~2030
1.88%(1996~2012
)3.89%
2013~2030
328.3
239.0
153.5

1996~2012

2013~2030

64.3

4.49%

3.75%

1.67%

3.21%

10.36%

3.36%

3.89%

2.14%

2.16%

2.16%

0.76%

6.10%

1.78%

1.88%

1027

28


Bureau of Energy

1.2013~2030
-1.25%1996-2012-0.22%

2.

2%

1996~2012

2013~2030
()

-1.68%

-1.59%

0.10%

-0.78%

1.32%

-0.09%

-0.22%

-1.25%

1027

1027
29


Bureau of Energy

(1/3)
()GDP
()2000-2010
OECDOECDOECD
95
()10
2008(
)

OECD

GDP (10)
(2000)

2000
2010
(%)
533
799
4.13
581
712
2.06
1,097
1,125
0.25
1,328
1,496
1.20
232
266
1.38
1,900
2,071
0.87
385
440
1.34
250
294
1.62
160
171
0.68
295
431
3.86
168
197
1.58
411
549
2.94
4,667
5,064
0.82
9,899 11,681
1.67
53
69
2.62
1,478
1,698
1.40
247
302
2.02
725
873
1.87
171
251
3.89
25,866 30,043
1.51
39,639 50,942
2.54

(10)
2000

2010

278
210
302
441
85
546
104
56
35
177
112
195
1,012
3,857
36
360
139
523
125
9,055
14,132

464
280
322
510
93
581
113
65
35
243
122
239
1,029
4,119
42
357
145
524
144
10,022
19,738

(%)
5.27
2.94
0.64
1.48
0.95
0.63
0.80
1.38
0.18
3.23
0.83
2.05
0.17
0.66
1.42
-0.08
0.42
0.02
1.43
1.02
3.40

(/)
2000
0.52
0.36
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.29
0.27
0.23
0.22
0.60
0.67
0.48
0.22
0.39
0.68
0.24
0.56
0.72
0.73
0.35
0.36

2010
(%)
0.58
1.10
0.39
0.80
0.29
0.35
0.34
0.30
0.35
-0.28
0.28
-0.35
0.26
-0.38
0.22
-0.44
0.21
-0.46
0.56
-0.60
0.62
-0.77
0.44
-0.87
0.20
-0.95
0.35
-1.08
0.60
-1.24
0.21
-1.33
0.48
-1.53
0.60
-1.81
0.57
-2.44
0.33
-0.59
0.39
0.84

1.28
1.42
2.58
1.23
0.69
0.73
0.59
0.85
0.27
0.84
0.53
0.70
0.21
0.39
0.54
-0.06
0.21
0.01
0.37
0.68
1.34

IEA(2011)
IMF World Economic
Outlook Database (2012)

30


Bureau of Energy

(2/3)
1. :2016
3.4~4.3%
2012~2020
1.88%
2. :20126
2011~2030GDP2.0%~2.5%

2011-20300.95%~1.32%
3. APEC:APEC 2013APEC
2009-2035
2.5%2009-2030
1.76%APEC
APEC
APEC
1990

(twh)

2009

5,720 10,528
14%

20%

2035

TWh

UK DECC. 2012. Capturing the full


electricity efficiency potential of the UK.

1990- 20092009
2035

19,864

3.3%

2.5%

25%

--

--

APEC. 2013. Energy Demand and Supply Outlook.

KEEI. 2012.Mid-Term Korea


Energy Demand Outlook.

31


Bureau of Energy

(3/3)
1. 2011-2025-1.46%(-0.30%)
OECD (-0.89%)(0.55)OECD0.54
(0.90)
2. OECD2011-2030

3. GDP1%
84
2011-2030

2011-2025

2011-2025

World

3.0%

2.7%

OECD

2.1%

1.1%

-0.89%

0.54

Non
OECD

5.1%

4.2%

-0.98%

0.80

3.4%

GDP

1.9%

-0.30%

2011-2030

-1.46%

0.90

0.55

ExxonMobil. 2013. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

GDP

2.5%

0.6%

-1.9% 0.24

3.1%

1.8%

-1.3% 0.57

1.8%

0.8%

-1.0% 0.45

1.4%

0.4%

-0.9% 0.31

2.3%

1.7%

-0.6% 0.75

3.1%

2.5%

-0.5% 0.82

OECD. 2013. OECD ilibrary:


Energy Projections for IEA Countries

32


Bureau of Energy

33


Bureau of Energy

()
2013~2030
1.88%(1996~2012)
3.89%
() 1996-2012-0.22%
2013-2030-1.25%

()2000-2010
OECD
10

34


Bureau of Energy

()

()APEC

OECD
()
2030
(

ISO50001)

35


Bureau of Energy

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