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Todays Presenter Norm G. Miller, PhD University of San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate nmiller@sandiego.edu
Motivation For Research We have over $1.25 trillion US Dollars of Office Stock, more than 12 billion square feet What if we only needed 80% of what we now use?
That would mean 250 Billion is Excess Office Capital
GSAs Public Building Service has a longterm goal of improving the way federal agencies use space and downsizing the federal office space footprint. GSA is leading the way in its own Washington, D.C., headquarters, where it is reshaping traditional office floor plans and shrinking the workspaces for many employees by about 50%down to nearly 82 square feet per workerin what is being promoted as a model for other federal workplaces. Source: Colliers, March 28, 2012
Large public firms like these have been moving to new space use models
Allows many workers to work anywhere and has been moving to standardized non-dedicated space. Their office work station utilization rate has moved from 60% to over 90%. Accenture has dramatically increased its utilization rate from 50% in the year 2000 into the 80% range today using various over flow office space providers. Working with CBRE advisers since 2005 . The plan is to minimize interruptions and lost productivity due to facility issues and increase productivity while using space more efficiently.
Working with CBRE since 2009 is redesigning space to be more flexible and allow more collaboration.
CISCO, again with CBRE, is moving its utilization rate from 45% to 85%.
HP is targeting 120-150 sq. ft. and 85% utilization with standardized and highly shared space.
350
340 330
320
310
Is It Simply Culture?
Building Space per Person Commercial Square Feet in 2007 Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development
300
250
200
150
100
50
Maybe The Cost To Hold The Space Available And Ready Is Not That Great Compared To Labor Costs?
U.S. Corporate Rent as Percent of Total Operation Expenses with Trend Line
3.20% 3.00% 2.80% 2.60% 2.40% 2.20% 2.00%
Maybe We Dont Need A Place To Keep As Much Stuff In The Office As Before
Standardized Work Space Non-Dedicated Office Space (sharing) along with more amenities More tolerance, even encouragement of telecommuting and working in 3rd places More collaborative work spaces and functional project teams Greater emphasis on higher space utilization, innovation and productivity
New Model
CEO
Everyone
Staff Clerical
Working Anywhere
The Past
The Future
Non-Dedicated Space Historically everyone had their own office or work desk and we had utilization rates of 50% or so. Firms that have moved to sharing space have utilization rates of 80% to 95% sometimes using conference space seats for overflow or temporary office space vendors like Liquid Space, Regus, HQ, Instant Space as well as home and 3rd places.
What Do Tenants Say They Want? Less noise and the ability to control interruptions Cleaner air and control over temperature Configurations with more collaborative space More natural light More natural ventilation (operable windows)
Pixar
Gensler, Baltimore
Google, London HQ
Red Bull
More Evidence of Down Sizing Leased space sizes have been shrinking.
As of mid 2012 the average was 185 sq ft per worker, well below the average space assumption in most office demand models and well below figures 10 years ago.
So will the downsizing trends negate the need for net new space?
Downsizing takes time and cultural shifts. Lawyers giving up law books and files takes time. Professors giving up book cases and dedicated space? Space planning never quite works out as planned.
Long term leases especially for a growing firm Private dedicated space and hierarchies of different space types that are not substitutable Employee churn Time required to fill positions Unexpected downsizing These effects can be simulated
Growth Rates from -10% To +20% With a Target of 150 Sq Ft/Worker and No Private Space, All Standardized
What about the impact of downsizing? We will see downsizing, mostly among larger public firms, based primarily on moving to a non-dedicated sharing of space and tolerance for working anywhere. This will happen over several years. But it will more major markets with larger tenants, and it will not happen evenly in all metros. How many of these large tenants are there?
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
About 1/3rd of all space is occupied by the large space users (50,000 plus)
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Downsized firm stuck in a lease or fast growing firm in a soft market securing lots of extra space.
Implications Parking needs will not be 3 or 4 per 1000 sq ft but 5, 6, or 7 per 1,000 sq ft among the intense use firms (like call centers right now).
Implications Nearly all of the existing office space could be reconfigured more efficiently with better natural light, more energy efficiency, healthier better ventilation and more sound control. Great designs will try and minimize interruptions and provide flexible work space. Landlords are not selling space but productivity and more productive space will command higher rents per square foot.
Conclusions Changes in the office market are inevitable. Space needs to be improved (noise, sound, air, temp) and become more efficient. Yet the demise of the office market is not going to occur because downsizing takes time but it may catch some owners off guard. Progressive landlords and consultants will get out in front of this curve and assist in the transition rather than resist it.
Thanks If you wish to see formal papers on the topic, contact: Nmiller@sandiego.edu Thanks to Inna Panchuk, MSRE Candidate 2013, University of San Diego, for research assistance on design trends.