Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Centre plans to give freedom to states to hike PDS sugar price
Food Minister K V Thomas on Wednesday said his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to give freedom to state governments to hike the retail price of sugar sold in ration shops. At present, sugar is being sold at Rs 13.50 per kg in the public distribution system (PDS). This price has not been revised since 2002 despite increase in open market price to Rs 3540 per kg. After the decontrol of the sugar sector in May, the states have been asked to procure sugar from the open market to meet the ration shop demand from this month onwards. The difference of only upto Rs 18.50/kg is paid as subsidy to states. A proposal to allow state governments to increase the retail price of sugar sold at ration shops has been prepared for cabinet's consideration. Sources said that the Food Ministry's proposal is to allow state governments to hike sugar price maximum by Rs one per kg. This will reduce the subsidy burden. (Source:
www.zeenews.com)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 7, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18665 5519 61.21 104.37 1286.1

-0.36 -0.42 0.69 -0.88 0.23

-3.52 -3.88 0.58 -0.63 -2.00

-3.41 -5.03 0.85 1.19 4.15

6.05 3.39 10.72 11.81 -20.26

.Source: Reuters

Argentine 2013/14 wheat area seen 3.8 mln hectares

Argentina is expected to plant 3.8 million hectares (1.5 million acres) with 2013/14 wheat, the Rosario grains exchange said in a special report on Wednesday, as farmers in the South American grains powerhouse move to shore up dwindling supplies. It was the exchange's first wheat area forecast of the season. The country's farmers planted wheat on 3.6 million hectares in the 2012/13 crop year, yielding a 9.3 million-tonne harvest. Export limits, imposed by Argentina to ensure ample domestic food supplies, backfired this year when the government approved too much wheat for export based on optimistic early season crop estimates. Now little remains to be milled into flour for bread. With 90 percent of the 2013/14 crop already sown, Argentine flour mills are growing concerned about thin wheat stocks that have driven domestic food prices higher. (Source: Reuters)

Excess rains likely to damage 5-7% of kharif crop

Excessive rainfall has hit kharif agricultural commodities, with five to seven per cent of crops feared damaged in major growing regions, especially flood-prone areas. The India Meteorological Department reported 17 per cent excess rainfall through the country until July 31. Crops like paddy require long spells of heavy rain for germination and survive a short duration of flooding, too. But, inundation for a long while spoils the crop. With around half of agricultural crops being subject to flooding, chances of crop damage have risen. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar had at the beginning of the monsoon season forecast this years foodgrain crop to surpass last years figure. Now, this migh t not happen. Surplus rainfall does hold the potential to affect crops such as pulses and oilseeds. While paddy can be affected, given that it is a local product and we have stocks, there will be fewer issues on the price front. However as we are importing pulses and edible oils, any shortfall will mean higher imports and at a depreciated rupee, that will tend to spook up domestic prices, too. (Source: Business Standard)

USDA says it will stop cotton payments to Brazil as part of dispute over subsidies
The United States will cease paying a $147 million annual settlement to Brazil that is part of a long-running trade dispute over cotton subsidies, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Wednesday. The United States agreed to pay the money to Brazil in 2010, just before the South American country was set to raise tariffs on hundreds of millions of dollars in American goods, including autos, pharmaceuticals and electronics. Stopping the payments could prompt Brazil to threaten retaliation again. The World Trade Organization said in 2009 that Brazil could raise the tariffs on American goods because the United States had failed to get rid of subsidies the WTO said are illegal. A farm bill pending in Congress would attempt to bring those cotton subsidies into compliance, but it is now stalled amid disputes between the House and Senate. (Source: Factiva)

Agri commodities face bearish outlook

The bears seem to have gripped agri commodities globally. While improved weather conditions in the US and good monsoon in India have improved the crop prospects, weak global economic conditions have affected demand, putting pressure on prices. Agri commodities, including cotton, soybean, wheat, sugar and palm oil, are among the major commodities facing a bearish outlook as demand remains subdued with robust crop prospects. We maintain a bearish view on most agri commodity prices this month, with further downside expected for the grains and oilseeds markets from current levels as new crop supply becomes more certain, Rabobank stated in its July report. (Source: Business
Standard)

Sugar output in Brazil may drop 6 pct after frost, rain

Sugar and ethanol output from Brazil could fall 6 percent due to recent frost and rains. The most damaging effect of the frost will occur next year but it's still too early to quantify this effect. Frost has damaged 65 million tonnes, or at least 18 percent, of the yet unharvested sugar cane in the southernmost regions of Brazil's growing region. Even if weather remains dry and favorable for crushing, it's difficult to recover all the drop in ATR (recoverable sugars). The recent strengthening of the dollar by 14 percent since May has made exports of sugar more attractive than producing ethanol, for the local market predominantly. The mills are however not expected to change their production plans to produce more of the sweetener. Mills have been favoring ethanol production this season by about 57 percent to 43 percent sugar. Ethanol has greater liquidity than sugar. So, for generating cash flow, mills prefer ethanol when the difference in returns (compared with sugar) is slim. (Source:
Reuters)

Export of oilmeals down 24% in April- July 2013

Total export of oilmeals during April-July 2013 was down by 24% and reported at 1,027,962 tn compared to 1,356,737 tn during the same period of last year, according Solvent Extrators Association of India. The export of oilmeals during July 2013 was reported at 177,011 tn compared to 282,703 tn in July 2012, down by 37%. April-July export of soybean meal was drastically reduced to 516,545 tn from 805,748 tn, while rapeseed meal has maintained pace. Castor meal shipment has increased during April, May and June 2013. ndonesia imported 29,375 tn compared to 72,724 tn of last year consisting of 24,514 tn of rapeseed meal and 4,861 tn of soybean meal. Europe and others have imported 110,134 tn compared to 30,618 tn of last year. Overall export of oilmeals to all regions has fallen. (Source: Economic Times)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures weakened on Wednesday due to sluggish demand and adequate stock positions in the country. Also, higher sowing estimates of kharif pulses have weighed on to the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.83% and 1.08% lower respectively on Wednesday. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side will be imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 7, 2013 % change Last 2896 2741 Prev day -0.83 -1.08 WoW 4.00 4.06 MoM -6.64 -9.33
Source: Reuters

YoY -41.67 -42.33

Spread Matrix
Closing 2895.85 2741 2789 2884 20-Aug-13 -154.85 0 -

as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Sep-13 -106.85 48 0 18-Oct-13 -11.85 143 95 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5 Aug 76008 58853 11957 146818
th

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Stocks as on 6 Aug 75455 58367 12096 145918
th

Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Qty in Process 160 30 139 329

309

111

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

938

Total

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
Heavy rains in states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to affect pulses output this season. The extent of the damage will be clear in the coming weeks. (Source: Agriwatch) This factor is expected to support prices in the near term. Also, an increase in the margins on the short side may support prices. However, higher sowing of kharif pulses and estimated higher output may cap sharp gains during the intraday.

Source: Telequote

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Resistance 2820-2850

2740-2765

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures opened lower as overall higher sowing and expectations of a record crop have kept prices under downside pressure. However, the weather departments forecast of rains in the soybean growing regions in the next few days coupled with a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels and settled 0.05% lower. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Southwest monsoon which slowed its pace and was flat to below average in the previous two weeks, recovered significantly during the week ending 24th July 2013. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 28th July in the central India (major soy belt), were 45 percent above th the LPA, while in the week ending 24 July they rains were recorded up by 43 percent in Central India. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds nd was recorded at 173.21 la ha on 2 Aug, 2013, an increase of 19.56 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean futures traded on a mixed note. The near month contract settled 0.26% higher on tight supplies while the new crop November contract declined 0.1% on prospects of a bumper crop. Favorable weather in US for soybean have kept prices under check. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 63% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 39% of the crop is setting pods vs. 69% a year ago. Also, 79% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 93% a year ago. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.
Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Market Highlights

as on Aug 7, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.09 2.85 -0.05 0.26 -1.06 -0.94 -1.33 -3.37 1.84 0.92

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3423 2934 1328 3417 3178

MoM -9.06 -20.40 -17.49 1.84 -7.56

YoY -26 -36.8 -18.5 -23.6 -25.8

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3423 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 2933.5 2945.5 2973 0 12 0 18-Oct-13 -489.5 20-Nov-13 -477.5

as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Dec-13 -450 39.5 27.5 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Sep-13 -211.75 27 0 18-Oct-13 -182.75 56 29 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 40 121 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3416.75 3178 3205 3234 20-Aug-13 -238.75 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 6th Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 40 121 Stocks as on 5th Aug 73 0 0 73 Stocks as on 5th Aug 1776 363 14832 644 57689 3138 1769 80211

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note. Higher output expectations may keep prices under check. However, tight supplies coupled with forecast of rains in MP in the next few days may support prices at lower levels. If rainfall activity moderates in the coming weeks then we may see prices consolidating at current levels amid higher sowing.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 6th Aug 1776 363 14621 644 56564 3088 1769 78825

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded with a negative bias yesterday and settled 0.94% lower due to a weak demand and comfortable supplies in the spot markets coupled with higher sowing of kharif oilseeds which have mounted downside pressure. However, fears of damage of the soybean crop supported prices at lower levels. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed may trade with a negative bias as higher production and sufficient supplies this season may pressurize prices. However, soybean crop damage fears may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Support 2880-2905 3148-3176 Resistance 2955-2975 3233-3262
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a mixed note. Weak international edible oil prices have pressurized prices. However, festive demand coupled with weakness in the Rupee supported prices at lower levels and settled 0.19% lower on Wednesday. Agri Ministrys proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 672.30 664.40 41.64 2278 498.70 Prev day -0.14 -0.19 -1.12 -1.51 -0.99

as on Aug 7, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 1.57 1.91 -1.07 -0.65 0.46

MoM -3.02 -3.63 -11.4 -3.84 -2.88

YoY -13.26 -13.77 -19.27 -18.96 -9.28

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 672.3 664.4 645.4 619.25 20-Aug-13 -7.9 0 20-Sep-13 -26.9 -19 0 -

as on Aug 7, 2013 18-Oct-13 -53.05 -45.15 -26.15 0 as on Aug 7, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may trade on a mixed note today. Festive demand coupled with a weakness in the Rupee may support prices. However, weak international markets coupled with comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled may pressurize prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 498.7 490.5 481.6 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -8.2 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a negative note yesterday on account of profit taking coupled with weak KLCE prices. Prices on KLCE have declined due to expectations of increase in the production. However, festive demand as well a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels and settled 0.99% lower on Wednesday. Malaysian palm oil futures had declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in July increased 4.2% to 1,406,935 tonnes from 1,350,311 tonnes shipped during June. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -17.1 -8.9 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to trade higher today due to lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Support 639-642 492-496 Resistance 648-651 502-505

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures continued to trade higher overseas as well as improved domestic demand supported prices. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat capped sharp gains and settled 0.99% higher on Wednesday. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,3502,400/tn (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mum).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13578 13243 5038 4798 Prev day 0.31 0.99 -4.95 4.03

as on Aug 7, 2013 % Change WoW 0.51 2.02 -7.99 -5.92 MoM -0.13 -0.75 -11.00 -16.87 YoY -17.45 -15.50 -9.37 -15.94

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13578 13242.5 13417.5 13585 20-Aug-13 -335.5 0 20-Sep-13 -160.5 175 0 -

as on Aug 7, 2013 18-Oct-13 7 342.5 167.5 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Aug-13 -239.5 0 20-Sep-13 -171.5 68 0 18-Oct-13 -77.5 162 94 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 5th Aug Process 1430 3996 5426 8595 NCDEX Sept contract 0 0 6 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 4,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5037.5 4798 4866 4960

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade with a positive bias as overseas as well as domestic demand may support. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 6th Aug 1430 3870 5300 8595 Qty in Process 0 6 6 40

Turmeric
Turmeric futures recovered sharply from lower levels and hit the upper circuit breaker on account of short coverings after prices touched a contract low of `4556 in the previous session prices have declined sharply on account of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Spot markets remained closed on Tuesday on account of Amavasya. th Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.43 lakh ha as on 7 August, as against 0.44 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.49 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade on a negative note today on account of huge carryover stocks. The ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may also pressurize prices.. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 8, 2013

Support 13240-13330 4750-4810 Resistance 13500-13580 4920-4970
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded with a positive bias after the Food Minsiter said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Expectations of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season also supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also supported prices while ample supplies capped sharp gains. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3013 `/qtl 494.3 $/tonne 372.89 $/tonne 1.39 1.23 0.20 Last 3056

as on Aug 7, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.29 0.48 -0.40 0.73 -1.12 MoM YoY -0.28 -14.25 0.80 -0.34 2.76 -13.22 -16.11 -20.44

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3055.85 3013 3010 3028 20-Aug-13 -42.85 0 20-Sep-13 -45.85 -3 0 -

as on Aug 7, 2013 18-Oct-13 -27.85 15 18 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 6th Aug 1449 5532 0 923 7904 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5th Aug 1698 5532 0 923 8153 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar settled 1.23% and 1.39% higher on reports of cane damage in Brazil due to frost and thus, sugar output is expected to st drop by 6 percent. Production in Brazil rose 60% to 2.4 mn tn in 1 half of July as against 1.5 mn tn in second half of June. International Sugar Organization expects the global surplus to fall by 70% from 11.2 mn tn in 2012-13 to 3.5 mn tn in 2013-14 marketing year. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Mexico is expected to ship more than 700,000 tonnes sugar outside the US in 2012-13 season making the country a global supplier in more than a decade. Output in Mexico is reported around 6.97 mn tn in 2012-13 year.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to trade on a positive note as festive demand coupled with higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS may support prices. However, ample supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may cap upside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Support 2999-3005 Resistance 3015-3019

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Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures traded on a positive note as the government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season coupled with a weak Rupee and settled 1.27% and 1.33% higher on Wednesday. However, higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country have capped sharp gains. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 995 20500 88.53 91.15

as on Aug 7, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.27 2.05 1.33 4.33 3.16 3.39 0.39 -1.46 MoM YoY 2.05 #N/A 2.14 13.95 5.61 17.26 -1.19 6.73
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 20500 19950 19930 31-Oct-13 0

as on Aug 7, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -550 0 -570 -20 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 6th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800

as on Aug 6, 2013

Stocks as on 5th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton traded on a bullish note yesterday and settled 3.16% higher as heavy rains in the Southeast US and arid conditions for western Texas and China may damage crops. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 45% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 21% against 22% last week. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to trade higher due to higher export permission coupled with domestic demand. Also, bullish international markets may support prices. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Support 980-987 20200-20360 Resistance 1002-1010 20630-20770
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| 8 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex continued to trade lower and touched a fresh contract low of `3980 in Guar seed as abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains have mounted downside pressure on the prices. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. However, prices recovered marginally from lower levels on account of short coverings. Traders are not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 1.21% and 1.47% lower on Wednesday. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4090 `/qtl 13630 `/qtl 11430 `/qtl -1.47 -3.02 -1.21 Last Prev day 4982 -2.02

as on Aug 7, 2013 % change WoW -2.47 -2.62 -5.00 -3.71 MoM -31.07 -42.72 -33.01 -43.97 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 4982.35 4090 4070 4090 18-Oct-13 -892.35 0 20-Nov-13 -912.35 -20 0 -

as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Dec-13 -892.35 0 20 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2229.55 -30 0 20-Dec-13 -2249.55 -50 -20 0 as on Aug 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5th Aug 69 131 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 13629.55 11430 11400 11380 18-Oct-13 -2199.55 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 6th Aug 50 102 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum may continue to trade with a negative note as overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 8, 2013 Support 3960-4020 3950-4010 11120-11280 11060-11220 Resistance 4150-4220 4150-4220 11600-11750 11540-11700
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com