Northern Regional

Community Fact Book

Warren County Edition

New Jersey Department of Labor

and Workforce Development

Division of Labor Market and

Demographic Research

June 2006
 Preface

T he Regional Community Fact Book for Warren County provides a

snapshot of its people and its economy. Included are facts and fig-
ures on current industry trends, population, unemployment and income. The
Fact Book also provides a look into the future and provides the latest popu-
lation, labor force, industry and occupational projections.

The Regional Community Fact Book series is meant to be a reference

for use in local and regional economic development planning and for employ-
ment and training providers. Fact Books will be published annually for New
Jersey’s 21 counties, grouped into three regions (northern, central and
southern).

Acknowledgements

T his publication was prepared by James McGarry and Patricia

McKendrick of the Bureau of Labor Market Information, Division
of Labor Market and Demographic Research. Layout was done by Chester S.
Chinsky.

Questions regarding information contained in this publication should be

directed to James Mcgarry by phone at (973) 648-3866 or by e-mail:
james.mcgarry@dol.state.nj.us.

To obtain copies of this publication or other county editions, please

contact Lester Wright by phone at (609) 292-7567 or by e-mail:
lester.wright @dol.state.nj.us.
 Table of Contents

County Snapshot .................................................................................... 1

Industry Trends, Warren vs. New Jersey ..................................... 2

Employment ............................................................................................ 5

Employment Gains and Losses ........................................................... 6

Wages ...................................................................................................... 7

Per Capita Personal Income ............................................................... 8

Unemployment Rates ........................................................................... 8

Characteristics of the Unemployed ................................................. 9

Population ...............................................................................................10

Population Projections ......................................................................... 11

Industry Projections ...........................................................................12

Projected Occupational Demand.......................................................13

Labor Force Projections .....................................................................14

 County Snapshot
Northern Region
Population (July 1, 2005 estimate): 110,376
Change from Census 2000: +7,939 or + 7.8%
Sussex Passaic Percent of New Jersey Total: 1.3%
Bergen

Warren Total Private Sector

Morris
Employment (2004): 31,200
Essex
Percent of New Jersey Total: 1.0%
Hudson Change from 1999: +2,700
Union
Hunterdon
Largest Industry (2004): Retail Trade
Retail Trade Employment: 6,085
Percent of Total County Employment: 19.5%

Private Sector Wage (2004 annual average): $40,746

Percent of New Jersey Average: 85.5%
Change From 1999: +$6,644

Industry With Highest Average Annual

Wage (2004): Management of Companies & Enterprises: $87,170

Per Capita Personal Income (2004): $35,016

Percent of New Jersey Per Capita Income: 84.1%

Number of Unemployment Insurance Claimants (2005 annual average)

average): 986

Unemployment Rate (2005 annual average): 3.8%

5-year High (2003): 4.9%
5-year Low (2001): 3.4%
New Jersey Rate (2005): 4.4%

Building Permits (single-family residential,2005): 441

Rank Among New Jersey Counties: 17

Warren County Community Fact Book 1

 Industry Trends, Warren vs. New Jersey
∑ Warren County’s economy grew at a rate nine times faster than the state’s from 1999
to 2004. The county’s total private sector employment increased 9.6 percent, com-
pared to the state’s 0.7 percent. However, Warren County’s employment base is rela-
tively small, representing 1.0 percent of total state employment.

∑ Between 1999 and 2004, employment sectors in the county that outperformed the
state were professional and business services (+54.9% vs. +0.7%), other services (+36.9%
vs. +10.7%), education and health services (+27.0% vs. +13.9%), and construction (+26.3%
vs. +15.6%).

∑ The gain in professional and business services was due mainly to increased demand for
services to companies that are provided by other companies, such as payroll and janito-
rial services and temporary workers.

∑ The manufacturing sector continued to lose jobs over the six-year period, but at a
slower rate than the state (-15.7% vs. -19.8%). Two of the county’s larger industries,
chemicals and plastics/rubber products, have declined over the period.

Note: Use of an index facilitates comparison between two separate data elements.

Warren County and New Jersey Warren County and New Jersey
Total Private Sector Employment: 1999-2004 Construction Employment: 1999-2004
115 130

125
110
120

115
105
110

105
100
100
(1999=100) (1999=100)
95 95
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Warren New Jersey Warren New Jersey

2 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Industry Trends, Warren vs. New Jersey

Warren County and New Jersey Warren County and New Jersey
Manufacturing Employment: 1999-2004 Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment: 1999-2004
105 115

100
110
95

90 105

85
100
80
(1999=100) (1999=100)
75 95
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Warren New Jersey Warren New Jersey

Warren County and New Jersey Warren County and New Jersey
Information Employment: 1999-2004 Financial Activities Employment: 1999-2004
130 115

120
110
110

100 105

90
100
80
95
70
(1999=100) (1999=100)
60 90
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Warren New Jersey Warren New Jersey

Warren County Community Fact Book 3

 Industry Trends, Warren vs. New Jersey
Warren County and New Jersey Warren County and New Jersey
Professional & Business Services Employment: 1999-2004 Education & Health Services Employment: 1999-2004
160 130

140 120

120 110

100 100

(1999=100)
(1999=100)
80 90
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Warren New Jersey Warren New Jersey

Warren County and New Jersey Warren County and New Jersey
Leisure & Hospitality Employment: 1999-2004 Other Services Employment: 1999-2004
115 140

130
110

120
105
110

100
100
(1999=100) (1999=100)
95 90
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Warren New Jersey Warren New Jersey

4 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Employment
Warren County
Total Private Sector Employment: 1999 — 2004
36,000

34,000

32,000
B B
B
30,000 B
28,000
B B
26,000

24,000

22,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

∑ Total private sector payrolls in Warren County increased by 2,700 or 9.6 percent
over the 1999-2004 period. Most of the growth occurred between 2000 and 2003
and was due to population expansion that encouraged developers to build residen-
tial and commercial developments in the county.

Warren County
Total Private Sector Employment by Industry: 1999 & 2004
Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Transp./Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Prof./Business Services

Educ./Health Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

2004 1999

∑ In 2004, the trade, transportation and utilities sector had the largest employment
and comprised 26.6 percent of Warren County’s overall private sector employment.
Retail trade jobs made up most of this sector’s employment (73.3%); retail devel-
opment usually follows population growth. Other sectors with significant job totals
were manufacturing (18.9%) and education and health services (17.6%). The infor-
mation sector was the smallest at 1.4%.
Warren County Community Fact Book 5
 Employment Gains and Losses

Warren County, Private Sector

Net Job Growth by Industry: 1999 — 2004
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-500

-1,000

-1,500
Construction Manufact- Trade/ Information Financial Prof./ Education/ Leisure/ Other
uring Transport./ Activities Business Health Hospitality Services
Utilities Services Services

∑ Professional and business services, one of the county’s larger employment sectors,
added 1,400 jobs from 1999 to 2004 and accounted for 54.9 percent of the county’s
overall job gain. Much of this growth took place in the management of companies and
enterprises subsector. Education and health services also experienced notable job
growth (+1,170 jobs). New jobs were created in response to demand for expanded
services to meet the needs of the growing population.

Warren County, Private Sector

Gains, Losses and Net Growth by Industry: 2003
800

600

400

200

-200
Construction Manufact- Trade/ Information Financial Prof./ Education/ Leisure/ Other
uring Transport./ Activities Business Health Hospitality Services
Utilities Services Services

GAINS LOSSES NET

Source: Local Employment Dynamics (LED) data from the US Census Bureau.

∑ Despite net losses, industries can generate significant numbers of job openings dur-
ing a year. Trade, transportation and utilities had the largest number of job gains,
but a higher number of job losses in 2003 (latest available), resulting in a net loss of
jobs. This reflects the high turnover rates in the retail trade component.

6 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Wages
Warren County, Private Sector
Average Annual Wage: 1999 — 2004
$45,000

$40,746
$39,842
$40,000
$37,788
$36,290
$34,102 $34,541
$35,000

$30,000

$25,000

$20,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

∑ Between 1999 and 2004, Warren County’s annual average wage increased to $40,746,
a gain of 19.5 percent. In comparison, the state’s annual wage rose to $47,639 in 2004,
up 16.7 percent. Because of its rural character, average wages in most of Warren
County’s employment sectors tend to be somewhat lower than in the rest of the state.

Warren County and New Jersey, Private Sector

Average Annual Wage by Industry: 2004
Total Private Sector

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade/Transp./Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Prof./Business Services

Education/Health Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Other Services

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

Warren County New Jersey

∑ In 2004, the manufacturing sector in Warren County paid the highest annual wage
($66,435), exceeding the statewide average of $59,023. Historically, the county has
been known for its highly skilled and high-paid factory workforce. Other sectors with
wages over $50,000 were professional and business services ($57,890) and trade,
transportation and utilities ($50,579.). Leisure and hospitality had the lowest wage
($15,679) due to the seasonal and part-time nature of many of the jobs in the indus-
try.

Warren County Community Fact Book 7

 Per Capita Personal Income
∑ In 2004, Warren County had a per capita Warren County and New Jersey
income of $35,016, ranking it 13th in the Per Capita Personal Income: 1999 — 2004
$45,000
state. The county’s per capita income was
just 84.1 percent of the state average of $40,000

$41,626, but 106.0 percent of the national

average of $33,050. $35,000 $
$ $ $
$
∑ Of the three components of personal in- $30,000 $
come, residents of Warren in 2004 de-
$25,000
rived 72.6 percent from wage earnings 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

versus 72.5 percent statewide, 13.8 per-

cent from dividends/interest/rent versus
New Jersey $ Warren

15.2 percent statewide, and 13.6 percent

from transfer payments (such as welfare
benefits, social security and veteran’s
benefits) versus 12.3 percent statewide.

Unemployment Rates

Warren County and New Jersey ∑ Warren County’s annual average unemploy-
Unemployment Rate Trends: 1999 — 2005 ment rate was lower than the state’s each
6.5 year over the 1999-2005 period. In 2005,
6.0
B B the county’s average unemployment rate
5.5 was 3.8 percent, compared to the state’s
5.0
J J B 4.4 percent.
B B
4.5
J B
4.0
B J J
3.5 J
3.0 J ∑ Population growth in Warren County has
2.5 been accompanied by an increase in the size
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004
of its labor force. From 1999 to 2005, the
B New Jersey J Warren county’s labor force expanded by 6,600 or
12.5 percent, much fastest than the state’s
3.1 percent gain.

8 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Characteristics of the Unemployed

Warren County
Unemployment Insurance Claimants: 2004-2005
2004 2005
Annual Annual Change 2004-2005
Category Average Average Number Percent
Total Insured Unemployed 1027 986 -41 -4.0
By Gender
Male 599 595 -4 -0.7
Female 428 391 -37 -8.6
By Race
White 919 890 -29 -3.2
Black 35 35 0 0.0
Asian 12 11 -1 -8.3
Other 61 49 -12 -19.7
By Ethnicity
Hispanic 90 78 -12 -13.3
Not Hispanic 879 865 -14 -1.6
Chose Not To Answer 57 43 -14 -24.6
By Age of Claimant
Under 25 58 75 17 29.3
25 through 34 191 181 -10 -5.2
35 through 44 286 289 3 1.0
45 through 54 278 254 -24 -8.6
55 through 64 170 150 -20 -11.8
65 and over 44 37 -7 -15.9
By Industry
Construction 160 169 9 5.6
Manufacturing 107 75 -32 -29.9
Trade, Transportation and Utilities 220 182 -38 -17.3
Wholesale Trade 52 30 -22 -42.3
Retail Trade 113 96 -17 -15.0
Information 42 44 2 4.8
Financial Activities 51 44 -7 -13.7
Professional and Business Services 164 156 -8 -4.9
Educational and Health Services 95 94 -1 -1.1
Leisure and Hospitality 70 67 -3 -4.3
Other Services 19 19 0 0.0

∑ Between 2004 and 2005, the number of persons filing for unemployment compensation
benefits in Warren County fell by 4.0 percent. Declines in the number of filings by
females (-37), whites (-29), and the 45-54 age group (-24) led the way.

∑ Almost every employment sector in the county reported a drop in the number of unem-
ployment claims from 2004 to 2005. The two sectors with the largest reductions were
trade, transportation and utilities (-38) and manufacturing (-32).

Warren County Community Fact Book 9

 Population
∑ From 1970 to 2005, Warren County’s Warren County
population grew more than twice as fast Total Population: 1970 — 2005
120,000
as the state’s (49.4% vs. 21.6%). The popu-
lation rose by 36,497 to total 110,376 in 110,000

the county. This rapid growth in the county 100,000

was the result of both natural increment
90,000
(births minus deaths) and net migration
80,000
into the county.
70,000

60,000

50,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Warren County ∑ In 2004 (latest available by race), the racial

composition of Warren County remained, pre-
Racial/Hispanic Origin: 2000 - 2004
Percent Percent dominately white. Whites comprised 94.3
Race in 2000 in 2004 percent of the population, compared with the
state’s 76.9 percent. Blacks made up 2.7 per-
White 96.0 94.3
Black 2.0 2.7 cent in the county, significantly less than the
Asian 1.3 2.1 14.5 percent statewide. Asians accounted for
Multiracial 0.6 0.8 2.1 percent of the population, compared with
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.1 0.1 7.0 percent statewide. Hispanics, who can be
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 0.0 0.0 of any race, represented 5.2 percent of the
Total* 100.0 100.0 county’s population while accounting for 14.9
Hispanic Origin (may be of any race) 3.7 5.2 percent of the state’s population.
* May not add to 100% due to rounding

∑ Between 1970 and 2004 (latest available Warren County

by municipality), nine of Warren County’s Ten Largest Municipalities 2004
22 municipalities more than doubled in Rank Municipality Population
size. Much of this population growth took 1 Phillipsburg Town 15,070
place near Interstates 78 and 80 and in 2 Hackettstown Town 9,339
3 Mansfield Township 8,322
the southern and eastern parts of the
4 Lopatcong Township 8,042
county. However, the county’s two larg- 5 Washington Borough 6,885
est towns, Phillipsburg (-2,779) and 6 Washington Township 6,809
Hackettstown (-133) lost residents over 7 Blairstown Township 6,000
this period. 8 Independence Township 5,796
9 White Township 5,395
10 Greenwich Township 5,223

10 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Population Projections
∑ With its rural environment, recreational Warren County
areas and easy access to Northern New Population Projections: 2002 — 2012
140,000
Jersey and New York City via Interstates
78 and 80, Warren County will continue to
115,000
attract new residents. The county’s popu-
lation is expected to increase by 13,900
from 2002 to 2012 and outpace growth 90,000

statewide (+12.9% vs. +8.1%). The county’s

rate of growth between 2002 and 2012 is 65,000

projected to be the fifth fastest in the

state. 40,000
2002* 2007** 2012**
*estimate **projection

Warren County
∑ Warren’s fastest-growing age groups are
Projections for Select Age Groups: 2002 — 2012
projected to be the 45-to-64-year old
40,000 (+38.8%) and the 15-to-24-year old (28.1%)
35,000 groups . Senior citizens (65 years and older)
30,000 are expected to grow faster in the county
25,000 than in the state (+22.9% vs. +14.3%).
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

2002* 2012**
*estimate **projection

∑ By 2012, Warren County is expected to be Warren County

more diverse. Both “other races” (+74.9%), Projected Population Growth
by Race, 2002 - 2012
includes Asian, American Indian/Alaska 80
Native and Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Is-
lander) and multi-racial (+40.1%, two or 60
more races) are projected to grow much
Percent

faster than white (+11.6%) and black 40

(+17.6%). The county’s Hispanic population
is projected to almost double in size, go-
20
ing from 4,800 in 2002 to 9,200 in 2012.
0
White Black Other Races Multi-Racial

Warren County Community Fact Book 11

 Industry Projections
Warren County, 2002 - 2012
Ten Industries with the Greatest Employment Growth
Change: 2002-2012
2002 2012 Percent
Industry Title Jobs Jobs Number Total Annual
Administrative and support services 1,450 1,900 450 32.6 2.8
Local government educational services 3,250 3,650 450 13.6 1.3
Hospitals 1,950 2,300 400 19.9 1.8
Food services and drinking places 2,150 2,500 350 16.0 1.5
Building material and garden supply stores 900 1,150 250 27.1 2.4
Professional and technical services 1,050 1,300 250 23.1 2.1
Specialty trade contractors 1,050 1,250 200 17.6 1.6
Educational services 900 1,100 200 23.8 2.1
Membership associations and organizations 650 850 200 27.7 2.4
Food and beverage stores 1,550 1,700 150 10.0 0.9

∑ From 2002 to 2012, Warren County is projected to add 4,600 new jobs. The county
and the state are expected to add jobs at a similar rate (12.2% vs. 12.0%).

∑ In the county, 63 percent of the jobs are expected to come from ten industries
(shown above) and will be led by administrative and support services and local govern-
ment educational services.

Warren County, 2002 - 2012

Ten Industries with the Greatest Employment Declines
Change: 2002-2012
2002 2012 Percent
Industry Title Jobs Jobs Number Total Annual
Chemical manufacturing 1,150 950 -200 -18.1 -2.0
Machinery manufacturing 400 300 -100 -20.0 -2.3
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 1,050 1,050 -50 -3.6 -0.4
Fabricated metal product manufacturing 400 350 0 -4.1 -0.4
Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 100 100 0 0.9 0.1
Local government, excl. hospitals & schools 1,950 1,950 0 -0.6 -0.1
Federal government, excluding Postal Service 50 50 0 -13.3 -1.4
Publishing industries, except Internet 100 100 0 -2.0 -0.2
Telecommunications 100 100 0 -9.1 -1.0
Postal service 250 250 0 -6.4 -0.7

∑ Four of the nine industries projected to experience declines in employment during

2002-2012 are in manufacturing.

12 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development

 Projected Occupational Demand
Warren County
Occupations With The Most Projected Job Openings, 2002-2012
2004
Annual Average Job Openings Annual Skill
1 2
Occupation Total Growth Replacements Wage Level Outlook
Cashiers 90 20 60 $17,930 Low Good
Combined Food Preparation and Serving
Workers, Including Fast Food 80 30 60 17,020 Low Good
Retail Salespersons 80 20 60 26,500 Low Good
Registered Nurses 50 30 20 62,330 High Good
Installation, Maintenance, and
Repair Workers, All Other 40 30 10 42,390 Moderate Average
Landscaping and
Groundskeeping Workers 30 10 20 24,710 Low Good
Child Care Workers 30 10 20 18,140 Low Good
Laborers and Freight, Stock
and Material Movers, Hand 30 0 30 22,650 Low Good
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids
and Housekeeping Cleaners 30 10 20 21,150 Low Good
Waiters and Waitresses 30 10 20 17,250 Low Good
Medical Secretaries 30 10 10 28,540 Moderate Average
Elementary School Teachers, Except
Special Education 30 10 20 52,720 High Good
General and Operations Managers 20 10 10 128,610 High Good
Teacher Assistants 20 10 10 20,150 Low Good
Office Clerks, General 20 0 20 27,530 Low Good
Retail Sales Workers 20 10 10 45,170 Moderate Good
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 20 0 20 24,210 Low Good
Tellers 20 0 10 21,010 Low Good
Middle School Teachers, Except
Special and Vocational Education 10 0 10 54,990 High Good
Secretaries, Except Legal,
Medical and Executive 10 0 10 34,650 Low Good
1. "Growth" and "Replacements" may not add to "Total" due to rounding.
2. High Skills: Associate's degree or higher.
Moderate Skills: Long-term on-the-job training, work experience or post secondary/vocational/technical training.
Low Skills: Short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training, including up to 12 months of on-the-job experience and informal training.

∑ Warren County is projected to have 1,520 annual job openings per year through 2012,
or 1.0 percent of the statewide annual openings. The county’s top twenty ranked occu-
pations by annual job openings are anticipated to account for 45.4 percent of all annual
job openings.

∑ Many of the top-ranking occupations, such as cashiers, retail salespersons, and land-
scaping and groundskeeping workers, have lower skill levels and lower wages but a
favorable outlook. In comparison, the jobs listed with high skill requirements are
among the occupations with the highest salaries.
Warren County Community Fact Book 13
 Labor Force Projections
∑ Warren County’s labor force is projected Warren County
to increase 12.8 percent between 2002 and Projected Labor Force Growth
by Race, 2002 - 2012
2012. Whites are expected to contribute
the majority (84.3%) of the change fol- Multi-Racial Other Races
2.9%
lowed by “other races” (10.0%), multi-
10.0%
racial (2.9%) and blacks (2.8%). Black
2.8%

Note: Multi-racial refers to persons who

White
are of two or more races. “Other races”
84.3%
includes Asian, American Indian/Alaska
Native, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Is-
lander.

Warren County
∑ Over the 2002-2012 period, more non-His-
Projected Labor Force Growth by panics than Hispanics will be added to the
Hispanic Origin, 2002 - 2012 county’s labor force (75.7% vs. 24.3%).
However, the rate of growth for the His-
panic labor force is projected to be sig-
Hispanic
nificantly higher than for non-Hispanics
24.3%
(+85.0% vs. +12.8%).
Non-Hispanic
75.7%

∑ Between 2002 and 2012, more than half Warren County

(52.9%) of the change to Warren County’s Projected Labor Force Growth by
labor force will be female. Statewide, males Gender, 2002 - 2012
will make up the majority (53.1%) of the
change to the labor force. The rate of
growth for females in the county’s labor
force is projected to be 14.7 percent ver- Male
sus 11.3 percent for males. Statewide, the 52.9%
47.1% Female
growth rate for both sexes is anticipated
to be 10.5 percent.

14 New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development