Statistics Definitions

Statistics Collection of methods for planning experiments, obtaining data, and then organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing conclusions. Variable Characteristic or attribute that can assume different values Random Variable A variable whose values are determined by chance. Population All subjects possessing a common characteristic that is being studied. Sample A subgroup or subset of the population. Parameter Characteristic or measure obtained from a population. Statistic (not to be confused with Statistics) Characteristic or measure obtained from a sample. Descriptive Statistics Collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data. Inferential Statistics Generalizing from samples to populations using probabilities. Performing hypothesis testing, determining relationships between variables, and making predictions. Qualitative Variables Variables which assume non-numerical values. Quantitative Variables Variables which assume numerical values. Discrete Variables Variables which assume a finite or countable number of possible values. Usually obtained by counting. Continuous Variables Variables which assume an infinite number of possible values. Usually obtained by measurement. Nominal Level Level of measurement which classifies data into mutually exclusive, all inclusive categories in which no order or ranking can be imposed on the data. Ordinal Level

Level of measurement which classifies data into categories that can be ranked. Differences between the ranks do not exist. Interval Level Level of measurement which classifies data that can be ranked and differences are meaningful. However, there is no meaningful zero, so ratios are meaningless. Ratio Level Level of measurement which classifies data that can be ranked, differences are meaningful, and there is a true zero. True ratios exist between the different units of measure. Random Sampling Sampling in which the data is collected using chance methods or random numbers. Systematic Sampling Sampling in which data is obtained by selecting every kth object. Convenience Sampling Sampling in which data is which is readily available is used. Stratified Sampling Sampling in which the population is divided into groups (called strata) according to some characteristic. Each of these strata is then sampled using one of the other sampling techniques. Cluster Sampling Sampling in which the population is divided into groups (usually geographically). Some of these groups are randomly selected, and then all of the elements in those groups are selected.

Population vs Sample
The population includes all objects of interest whereas the sample is only a portion of the population. Parameters are associated with populations and statistics with samples. Parameters are usually denoted using Greek letters (mu, sigma) while statistics are usually denoted using Roman letters (x, s). There are several reasons why we don't work with populations. They are usually large, and it is often impossible to get data for every object we're studying. Sampling does not usually occur without cost, and the more items surveyed, the larger the cost. We compute statistics, and use them to estimate parameters. The computation is the first part of the statistics course (Descriptive Statistics) and the estimation is the second part (Inferential Statistics)

Discrete vs Continuous
Discrete variables are usually obtained by counting. There are a finite or countable number of choices available with discrete data. You can't have 2.63 people in the room. Continuous variables are usually obtained by measuring. Length, weight, and time are all examples of continous variables. Since continuous variables are real numbers, we usually round them. This implies a boundary depending on the number of decimal places. For example: 64 is really anything 63.5 <= x < 64.5. Likewise, if there are two decimal places, then 64.03 is really anything 63.025 <= x < 63.035. Boundaries always have one more decimal place than the data and end in a 5.

Levels of Measurement
There are four levels of measurement: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio. These go from lowest level to highest level. Data is classified according to the highest level which it fits. Each additional level adds something the previous level didn't have.

Nominal is the lowest level. Only names are meaningful here. Ordinal adds an order to the names. Interval adds meaningful differences Ratio adds a zero so that ratios are meaningful.

Types of Sampling
There are five types of sampling: Random, Systematic, Convenience, Cluster, and Stratified.

Random sampling is analogous to putting everyone's name into a hat and drawing out several names. Each element in the population has an equal chance of occuring. While this is the preferred way of sampling, it is often difficult to do. It requires that a complete list of every element in the population be obtained. Computer generated lists are often used with random sampling. You can generate random numbers using the TI82 calculator. Systematic sampling is easier to do than random sampling. In systematic sampling, the list of elements is "counted off". That is, every kth element is taken. This is similar to lining everyone up and numbering off "1,2,3,4; 1,2,3,4; etc". When done numbering, all people numbered 4 would be used.

Convenience sampling is very easy to do, but it's probably the worst technique to use. In convenience sampling, readily available data is used. That is, the first people the surveyor runs into. Cluster sampling is accomplished by dividing the population into groups -usually geographically. These groups are called clusters or blocks. The clusters are randomly selected, and each element in the selected clusters are used. Stratified sampling also divides the population into groups called strata. However, this time it is by some characteristic, not geographically. For instance, the population might be separated into males and females. A sample is taken from each of these strata using either random, systematic, or convenience sampling.

TI-82: Generating Random Numbers

You can generate random numbers on the TI-82 calculator using the following sequence. N is the number of different values which could be and S is the minimum number.
int (N*rand+S)

INT is found under the MATH menu (math num 4). RAND is also found under the MATH menu (math prb 1). Simulate the rolling of a die (1-6): int
(6*rand+1) (2*rand)

Simulate the flipping of a coin (0-1): int

This works because the rand function returns a random number between 0 and 1 (including 0 but not including 1). When it is multiplied by N, it becomes between 0 and N, and then S is added, so it becomes between S and S+N. If you have two values (A and B) that you need random numbers between, then you can generate them using the following formulas.
N=B-A+1 int (N*rand+A)

Notice it is B-A+1 not B-A. Everyone agrees there are 10 numbers between 1 and 10 (inclusive). But, if you take 10-1, you get 9, not 10. Also, in the formula above, replace the N by the actual number of different values.

Since the calculator remembers the last formula put in, and evaluates it when you hit enter, to generate more random numbers, just hit enter again. Each time you hit enter, you will get another random number.

Sampling Lab
The purpose of this laboratory exercise is to familiarize yourself with the different sampling techniques. You need one page from a movie listing (like contained in TV-Guide). Note, if you actually use TV Guide, then you need to use two facing pages. Pick a page with little extraneous material, other than the listings, on it. For the purposes of this sampling project, a movie is included on the page or in a cluster if the running time for the movie falls on the page.
Random Sampling

Number each movie on the page. If there are a lot of movies, you may wish to number every other or every third movie. Generate a random sample on 8 numbers between 1 and the number of movies on the page. Write down the # generated and the running time for the movie corresponding to that number.
Systematic Sampling

Generate a random number between 1 and 6. Beginning with the movie corresponding to that number, and then taking every 6th movie thereafter, write the # of the movie and the running length of the movie.
Convenience Sampling

Write down the running time of the first eight movies.

Stratified Sampling

On a separate piece of paper, write down the running times of all PG/PG13, R, and not-rated (either NR or no rating given) movies in three columns -- ignore all other types (NC17, G, etc). Split a sample of 8 proportionally to each type of movie (if R is

40%, then sample 40% of 8 = 3.2 -> 3 R movies). Use random sampling within each movie type. Record the running lengths of the movies selected.
Cluster Sampling

Divide the page into equal regions so that each region has roughly 3 - 4 movies in each cluster. Randomly select 3 clusters, and record the running length of all movies in those clusters.

Statistics: Frequency Distributions & Graphs

Definitions
Raw Data Data collected in original form. Frequency The number of times a certain value or class of values occurs. Frequency Distribution The organization of raw data in table form with classes and frequencies. Categorical Frequency Distribution A frequency distribution in which the data is only nominal or ordinal. Ungrouped Frequency Distribution A frequency distribution of numerical data. The raw data is not grouped. Grouped Frequency Distribution A frequency distribution where several numbers are grouped into one class. Class Limits Separate one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another. The limits could actually appear in the data and have gaps between the upper limit of one class and the lower limit of the next. Class Boundaries Separate one class in a grouped frequency distribution from another. The boundaries have one more decimal place than the raw data and therefore do not appear in the data. There is no gap between the upper boundary of one class and the lower boundary of the next class. The lower class boundary is found by subtracting 0.5 units from the lower class limit and the upper class boundary is found by adding 0.5 units to the upper class limit. Class Width

The difference between the upper and lower boundaries of any class. The class width is also the difference between the lower limits of two consecutive classes or the upper limits of two consecutive classes. It is not the difference between the upper and lower limits of the same class. Class Mark (Midpoint) The number in the middle of the class. It is found by adding the upper and lower limits and dividing by two. It can also be found by adding the upper and lower boundaries and dividing by two. Cumulative Frequency The number of values less than the upper class boundary for the current class. This is a running total of the frequencies. Relative Frequency The frequency divided by the total frequency. This gives the percent of values falling in that class. Cumulative Relative Frequency (Relative Cumulative Frequency) The running total of the relative frequencies or the cumulative frequency divided by the total frequency. Gives the percent of the values which are less than the upper class boundary. Histogram A graph which displays the data by using vertical bars of various heights to represent frequencies. The horizontal axis can be either the class boundaries, the class marks, or the class limits. Frequency Polygon A line graph. The frequency is placed along the vertical axis and the class midpoints are placed along the horizontal axis. These points are connected with lines. Ogive A frequency polygon of the cumulative frequency or the relative cumulative frequency. The vertical axis the cumulative frequency or relative cumulative frequency. The horizontal axis is the class boundaries. The graph always starts at zero at the lowest class boundary and will end up at the total frequency (for a cumulative frequency) or 1.00 (for a relative cumulative frequency). Pareto Chart A bar graph for qualitative data with the bars arranged according to frequency. Pie Chart Graphical depiction of data as slices of a pie. The frequency determines the size of the slice. The number of degrees in any slice is the relative frequency times 360 degrees. Pictograph A graph that uses pictures to represent data. Stem and Leaf Plot

A data plot which uses part of the data value as the stem and the rest of the data value (the leaf) to form groups or classes. This is very useful for sorting data quickly.

Statistics: Grouped Frequency Distributions

Guidelines for classes 1. There should be between 5 and 20 classes. 2. The class width should be an odd number. This will guarantee that the class midpoints are integers instead of decimals. 3. The classes must be mutually exclusive. This means that no data value can fall into two different classes 4. The classes must be all inclusive or exhaustive. This means that all data values must be included. 5. The classes must be continuous. There are no gaps in a frequency distribution. Classes that have no values in them must be included (unless it's the first or last class which are dropped). 6. The classes must be equal in width. The exception here is the first or last class. It is possible to have an "below ..." or "... and above" class. This is often used with ages.
Creating a Grouped Frequency Distribution

1. 2. 3. 4.

Find the largest and smallest values Compute the Range = Maximum - Minimum Select the number of classes desired. This is usually between 5 and 20. Find the class width by dividing the range by the number of classes and rounding up. There are two things to be careful of here. You must round up, not off. Normally 3.2 would round to be 3, but in rounding up, it becomes 4. If the range divided by the number of classes gives an integer value (no remainder), then you can either add one to the number of classes or add one to the class width. Sometimes you're locked into a certain number of classes because of the instructions. The Bluman text fails to mention the case when there is no remainder. 5. Pick a suitable starting point less than or equal to the minimum value. You will be able to cover: "the class width times the number of classes" values. You need to cover one more value than the range. Follow this rule and you'll be

okay: The starting point plus the number of classes times the class width must be greater than the maximum value. Your starting point is the lower limit of the first class. Continue to add the class width to this lower limit to get the rest of the lower limits. 6. To find the upper limit of the first class, subtract one from the lower limit of the second class. Then continue to add the class width to this upper limit to find the rest of the upper limits. 7. Find the boundaries by subtracting 0.5 units from the lower limits and adding 0.5 units from the upper limits. The boundaries are also half-way between the upper limit of one class and the lower limit of the next class. Depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it may not be necessary to find the boundaries. 8. Tally the data. 9. Find the frequencies. 10. Find the cumulative frequencies. Depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it may not be necessary to find the cumulative frequencies. 11. If necessary, find the relative frequencies and/or relative cumulative frequencies. It is possible to have the TI-82 calculator find the frequencies for you. You will have to find the class width and class boundaries first.

TI-82: Lists and Statistics

There are two features of the TI-82 calculator that will be used. Lists and Statistics. The STAT key is located at the top center of the calculator and the LIST key is obtained by 2nd STAT. There are six lists that you can work with at any time on the calculator. Each set of data requires a list. If you include frequencies for the frequency distribution, then it will require a list for the data and a separate list for the frequencies. The lists are labeled L1, L2, L3, L4, L5, and L6 and are accessed on the calculator by pressing "2nd 1", "2nd 2", etc.

STATS Key
STAT has two major categories, EDIT and CALC

STAT-EDIT

1. Edit - Use this to enter data into a list. 2. SortA( - This will sort a list in ascending order. This is useful if you want to find the frequencies after you have already established the limits or boundaries. Since the data is sorted in order, you just have to go through and count the number in each class. You don't need to do the tally. This will replace the list you tell it sort. 3. SortD( - This will sort a list in descending order. This will replace the list you tell it to sort. 4. ClrList - This will erase any existing lists.
STAT-CALC

1. 1-Var Stats - This is used when there is only one variable. It will handle both raw data and frequency distributions. 2. 2-Var Stats - This is used when there are two variables, and x and y. This won't happen until the end of the semester. 3. Setup - You will need to check the setup before you find any other statistical values from this menu. It allows you to specify which list(s) you put the data into and if necessary, which list contains the frequencies. 4. Med-Med - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 5. LinReg(ax+b) - A regression model that will be used later in the course after we talk about two variable statistics. 6. QuadReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 7. CubicReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 8. QuartReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 9. LinReg(ax+b) - A regression model that will be used later in the course after we talk about two variable statistics. The book uses this model, however, we will use #5 instead. 10. LnReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 11. ExpReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 12. PwrReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course.

LIST Key
The LIST command has two major sections, OPS (Operations) and MATH.

LIST-OPS

1. SortA( - This will sort a list in ascending order. This command is equivalent to the SortA( command under the STATS key. 2. SortD( - This will sort a list in descending order. This command is equivalent to the SortD( command under the STATS key. 3. dim - This function will return the dimensions of a list. The dimension of a list the number of elements in the list. This is also used as a command to set the dimensions of a list. 4. Fill( - This command will fill a list with a constant. This is useful if you need to set an entire list to all be one number. 5. seq - This function will generate a sequence of numbers according to the function specified as the first argument. A list is returned, but you must save it to one of the six lists if you want to use it for anything.
LIST-MATH

1. min( - Returns the minimum value in a list. 2. max( - Returns the maximum value in a list 3. mean( - Returns the arithmetic mean of all numbers in the list. The mean is the sum of the list divided by the dimension of the list. 4. median( - Returns the median of the list. The median is the middle number when the list is sorted in ascending order. If the dimension is an even number, the median is the midpoint between the two middle values when the list is sorted in ascending order. 5. sum - Returns the sum of the values in the list. 6. prod - Returns the product of the values in the list. If the product of a list is zero, then at least one of the numbers is zero.

Other Keys
VARS

The VARS key can be used to retrieve the value of a statistic. VARS Statistics This will save a lot of retyping of values and allow you to use the full accuracy of the calculator instead of losing digits when re-entering numbers. Here are some common values you will be using:

Keystrokes VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1

Statistic n, the sample size x bar, the sample mean Sx, the sample standard deviation minX, the minimum value maxX, the maximum value

There are other values under statistics which you will use. You may have to arrow to other submenus first for some of them.
STORE

This key will save values. You may save a scalar value to a real variable (A-Z) or a list value to a list (L1 - L6). You can use the STORE key to save a value to the dimension of a list to set its size. You can use the STORE key to save a list generated by the sequence command to a list.
Mathematical Operations and Functions

Lists can be used as arguments of functions. If they are, the function is applied to each element in the list. Mathematical operations can be performed on lists. For more information on lists, see the Introduction to the TI-82.

Entering Data
Always start with a clean set of data. You don't want to mix data from one problem with data from another problem. Before starting any new problem, you should clear out existing data. STAT ClrList L1,L2,L3 Another way to clear the lists is to go into STAT EDIT, arrow to the top so that the list name is highlighted. Then press the CLEAR key and ENTER. You may only need to specify one list, but you can specify more than one, just separate them with commas.

After the lists have been cleared, you can enter the new lists: STAT Edit Select this list that you want to use. The default will be L1. This will be fine for most things, but do realize you can use any of the lists. Just be sure to check the setup later. Type in each number separating them by enter. When you are done entering, press the QUIT key (2nd MODE). If you need to correct data, just go back to STAT EDIT without clearing the list first.

TI-82: Lists and Statistics

There are two features of the TI-82 calculator that will be used. Lists and Statistics. The STAT key is located at the top center of the calculator and the LIST key is obtained by 2nd STAT. There are six lists that you can work with at any time on the calculator. Each set of data requires a list. If you include frequencies for the frequency distribution, then it will require a list for the data and a separate list for the frequencies. The lists are labeled L1, L2, L3, L4, L5, and L6 and are accessed on the calculator by pressing "2nd 1", "2nd 2", etc.

STATS Key
STAT has two major categories, EDIT and CALC
STAT-EDIT

1. Edit - Use this to enter data into a list. 2. SortA( - This will sort a list in ascending order. This is useful if you want to find the frequencies after you have already established the limits or boundaries. Since the data is sorted in order, you just have to go through and count the number in each class. You don't need to do the tally. This will replace the list you tell it sort. 3. SortD( - This will sort a list in descending order. This will replace the list you tell it to sort. 4. ClrList - This will erase any existing lists.

STAT-CALC

1. 1-Var Stats - This is used when there is only one variable. It will handle both raw data and frequency distributions. 2. 2-Var Stats - This is used when there are two variables, and x and y. This won't happen until the end of the semester. 3. Setup - You will need to check the setup before you find any other statistical values from this menu. It allows you to specify which list(s) you put the data into and if necessary, which list contains the frequencies. 4. Med-Med - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 5. LinReg(ax+b) - A regression model that will be used later in the course after we talk about two variable statistics. 6. QuadReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 7. CubicReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 8. QuartReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 9. LinReg(ax+b) - A regression model that will be used later in the course after we talk about two variable statistics. The book uses this model, however, we will use #5 instead. 10. LnReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 11. ExpReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course. 12. PwrReg - A regression model that isn't used in this course.

LIST Key
The LIST command has two major sections, OPS (Operations) and MATH.
LIST-OPS

1. SortA( - This will sort a list in ascending order. This command is equivalent to the SortA( command under the STATS key. 2. SortD( - This will sort a list in descending order. This command is equivalent to the SortD( command under the STATS key. 3. dim - This function will return the dimensions of a list. The dimension of a list the number of elements in the list. This is also used as a command to set the dimensions of a list. 4. Fill( - This command will fill a list with a constant. This is useful if you need to set an entire list to all be one number. 5. seq - This function will generate a sequence of numbers according to the function specified as the first argument. A list is returned, but you must save it to one of the six lists if you want to use it for anything.

LIST-MATH

1. min( - Returns the minimum value in a list. 2. max( - Returns the maximum value in a list 3. mean( - Returns the arithmetic mean of all numbers in the list. The mean is the sum of the list divided by the dimension of the list. 4. median( - Returns the median of the list. The median is the middle number when the list is sorted in ascending order. If the dimension is an even number, the median is the midpoint between the two middle values when the list is sorted in ascending order. 5. sum - Returns the sum of the values in the list. 6. prod - Returns the product of the values in the list. If the product of a list is zero, then at least one of the numbers is zero.

Other Keys
VARS

The VARS key can be used to retrieve the value of a statistic. VARS Statistics This will save a lot of retyping of values and allow you to use the full accuracy of the calculator instead of losing digits when re-entering numbers. Here are some common values you will be using: Keystrokes VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 VARS 5 1 Statistic n, the sample size x bar, the sample mean Sx, the sample standard deviation minX, the minimum value maxX, the maximum value

There are other values under statistics which you will use. You may have to arrow to other submenus first for some of them.

STORE

This key will save values. You may save a scalar value to a real variable (A-Z) or a list value to a list (L1 - L6). You can use the STORE key to save a value to the dimension of a list to set its size. You can use the STORE key to save a list generated by the sequence command to a list.
Mathematical Operations and Functions

Lists can be used as arguments of functions. If they are, the function is applied to each element in the list. Mathematical operations can be performed on lists. For more information on lists, see the Introduction to the TI-82.

Entering Data
Always start with a clean set of data. You don't want to mix data from one problem with data from another problem. Before starting any new problem, you should clear out existing data. STAT ClrList L1,L2,L3 Another way to clear the lists is to go into STAT EDIT, arrow to the top so that the list name is highlighted. Then press the CLEAR key and ENTER. You may only need to specify one list, but you can specify more than one, just separate them with commas. After the lists have been cleared, you can enter the new lists: STAT Edit Select this list that you want to use. The default will be L1. This will be fine for most things, but do realize you can use any of the lists. Just be sure to check the setup later. Type in each number separating them by enter. When you are done entering, press the QUIT key (2nd MODE). If you need to correct data, just go back to STAT EDIT without clearing the list first.

TI-82: Histograms, BoxPlots

You can use the calculator to draw histograms, box-plots, and compute the frequency of each class. See the instructions on using the calculator to do statistics and lists. This provides an overview as well as some helpful advice for working with statistics on the calculator.

Histograms
1. Enter the data. 2. Determine the class width and the lower class boundary (not limit) of the first class using the techniques for creating grouped frequency distributions. 3. Turn off any regular plots: Hit Y= and position the cursor over any equal sign which is in inversed video (white on black) by arrowing left and then down if necessary. Hit enter while the cursor is on the equal sign to toggle between displaying the function (equal sign highlighted) and not displaying the function (equal sign not highlighted). 4. Press the STATPLOT key (2nd Y=) 5. Select a plot (usually plot 1) and hit enter 6. Turn the plot on by highlighting the ON and pressing enter. 7. Set the TYPE to histograph (last type) 8. Set the XLIST to the list you put the data into 9. Set the FREQ to 1. 10. Select WINDOW 11. Put the lower class boundary for the first class in XMIN 12. The XMAX value should be the lower class boundary for the first class plus the number of classes times the class width. 13. The Class Width should be stored in XSCL 14. YMIN should be set to 0 15. YMAX should be at least the largest frequency in any class. This is difficult to know if you're generating the histogram without first writing the table by hand. If the histogram displayed doesn't fit on the screen, go back and change this number. A good initial guess might be the sample size divided by the number or classes. You might round up it to a nice number (multiple of 5) or add one or two so that graph is completely shown on the screen. 16. YSCL should be set based on the YMAX value. A factor of YMAX would be a good choice (so if YMAX is 30, let YSCL be 5). If your YMAX

is small (say under 10), you might want to set it to 1. This will determine how many marks are placed along the vertical axis. 17. Hit the GRAPH key.

Finding the Frequency

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Generate a histogram first Hit the TRACE key The "min" value is the lower class boundary The "max" value is the upper class boundary The "n" value is the frequency for that class. Use the left and right arrow keys to get the values for all the classes.

Box Plots
1. Enter the data. 2. Turn off any regular plots: Hit Y= and position the cursor over any equal sign which is in inversed video (white on black) by arrowing left and then down if necessary. Hit enter while the cursor is on the equal sign to toggle between displaying the function (equal sign highlighted) and not displaying the function (equal sign not highlighted). 3. Press the STATPLOT key (2nd Y=) 4. Select a plot (usually plot 1) and hit enter 5. Turn the plot on by highlighting the ON and pressing enter. 6. Set the TYPE to box-plot (3rd type) 7. Set the XLIST to the list you put the data into 8. Set the FREQ to 1. 9. Zoom to Statistics mode (ZOOM 9) You hit the TRACE key with the box plot displayed to find the five numbers associated with it. You may use the left and right arrow keys to find all five numbers. Note that the calculator uses the quartiles instead of the hinges. The hinges and quartiles are the same unless the remainder when the sample size is divided by four is three.

TI-82: Plotting an Ogive

The Ogive is a frequency polygon (line plot) graph of the cumulative frequency or the relative cumulative frequency.

The horizontal axis is marked with the class boundaries and the vertical axis is the frequency. All class boundaries are used -- there will be one more class boundary than the number of classes. The following example assumes the class boundaries are in List 1 and the cumulative frequencies are in List 2. You are free to use any two lists that you desire, but you should make the appropriate adjustments in the instructions if you don't use List 1 and List 2. 1. Enter the class boundaries into List 1. Start with the lower boundary of the first class and end with the upper boundary of the last class. 2. Enter the cumulative frequencies into List 2. Start with 0 for the first value because there is nothing less than the first lower class boundary. 3. Turn off any regular plots: Hit Y= and position the cursor over any equal sign which is in inversed video (white on black) by arrowing left and then down if necessary. Hit enter while the cursor is on the equal sign to toggle between displaying the function (equal sign highlighted) and not displaying the function (equal sign not highlighted). 4. Press the STATPLOT key (2nd Y=) 5. Select a plot (usually plot 1) and hit enter 6. Turn the plot on by highlighting the ON and pressing enter. 7. Set the TYPE to LinePlot (2nd type) 8. Set the XLIST to List 1 9. Set the YLIST to List 2 10. Set the MARKER to any of the three values 11. Select WINDOW 12. Put the lower class boundary for the first class in XMIN 13. The XMAX value should be the upper class boundary of the last class 14. The Class Width should be stored in XSCL 15. YMIN should be set to 0 16. YMAX should be set to the total frequency if using cumulative frequencies in List 2 and set to 1.00 if using relative cumulative frequencies in List 2. 17. YSCL should be set appropriately based on YMAX. 18. Hit the GRAPH key.
Relative Frequencies

There is no need to re-enter the data if you wish to use relative cumulative frequencies instead of cumulative frequencies.

The following assumes that the cumulative frequencies are in List 2. Replace the ### by the total frequency. You can't put "###" into the calculator.
L2 / ### STORE L2

This will replace the cumulative frequencies with the relative cumulative frequencies. To replace relative cumulative frequencies with cumulative frequencies, change the division to multiplication.
L2 * ### STORE L2

PIE Program
The TI-82 doesn't support pie charts directly as it does with scatterplots, box plots, and histograms. Place the frequencies or relative frequencies in List 1. If the List 1 is empty or the sum of list 1 is zero, then you are instructed to put the frequencies in list 1. Turn off any graphs that may be on before running the PIE program. Otherwise, the graphs will overlay the pie chart and it will take longer to draw. The program will ask the user if they wish to place the labels on the graph. If the user enters 1 for yes, then the values in List 1 will be placed in the graph. This is where the difference between frequencies or relative frequencies appear. This program will force the calculator into radian mode and turn the axes off, zoom standard and then zoom square. It will then draw a circle and proceed to draw the lines which define the pie graph. To reset the graphing screen to normal when done viewing the pie chart, you need to: 1. DRAW CLRDRAW 2. WINDOW FORMAT AXESON 3. MODE DEGREE -Depending on your use, Leaving it in Radian mode may be preferred

Statistics: Data Description

Definitions Statistic Characteristic or measure obtained from a sample Parameter Characteristic or measure obtained from a population Mean Sum of all the values divided by the number of values. This can either be a population mean (denoted by mu) or a sample mean (denoted by x bar) Median The midpoint of the data after being ranked (sorted in ascending order). There are as many numbers below the median as above the median. Mode The most frequent number Skewed Distribution The majority of the values lie together on one side with a very few values (the tail) to the other side. In a positively skewed distribution, the tail is to the right and the mean is larger than the median. In a negatively skewed distribution, the tail is to the left and the mean is smaller than the median. Symmetric Distribution The data values are evenly distributed on both sides of the mean. In a symmetric distribution, the mean is the median. Weighted Mean

The mean when each value is multiplied by its weight and summed. This sum is divided by the total of the weights. Midrange The mean of the highest and lowest values. (Max + Min) / 2 Range The difference between the highest and lowest values. Max - Min Population Variance The average of the squares of the distances from the population mean. It is the sum of the squares of the deviations from the mean divided by the population size. The units on the variance are the units of the population squared. Sample Variance Unbiased estimator of a population variance. Instead of dividing by the population size, the sum of the squares of the deviations from the sample mean is divided by one less than the sample size. The units on the variance are the units of the population squared. Standard Deviation The square root of the variance. The population standard deviation is the square root of the population variance and the sample standard deviation is the square root of the sample variance. The sample standard deviation is not the unbiased estimator for the population standard deviation. The units on the standard deviation is the same as the units of the population/sample. Coefficient of Variation Standard deviation divided by the mean, expressed as a percentage. We won't work with the Coefficient of Variation in this course. Chebyshev's Theorem

The proportion of the values that fall within k standard deviations of the mean is at least where k > 1. Chebyshev's theorem can be applied to any distribution regardless of its shape. Empirical or Normal Rule Only valid when a distribution in bell-shaped (normal). Approximately 68% lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean; 95% within 2 standard deviations; and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations of the mean. Standard Score or Z-Score The value obtained by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation. When all values are transformed to their standard scores, the new mean (for Z) will be zero and the standard deviation will be one. Percentile The percent of the population which lies below that value. The data must be ranked to find percentiles. Quartile Either the 25th, 50th, or 75th percentiles. The 50th percentile is also called the median. Decile Either the 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, or 90th percentiles. Lower Hinge The median of the lower half of the numbers (up to and including the median). The lower hinge is the first Quartile unless the remainder when dividing the sample size by four is 3. Upper Hinge

The median of the upper half of the numbers (including the median). The upper hinge is the 3rd Quartile unless the remainder when dividing the sample size by four is 3. Box and Whiskers Plot (Box Plot) A graphical representation of the minimum value, lower hinge, median, upper hinge, and maximum. Some textbooks, and the TI-82 calculator, define the five values as the minimum, first Quartile, median, third Quartile, and maximum. Five Number Summary Minimum value, lower hinge, median, upper hinge, and maximum. InterQuartile Range (IQR) The difference between the 3rd and 1st Quartiles. Outlier An extremely high or low value when compared to the rest of the values. Mild Outliers Values which lie between 1.5 and 3.0 times the InterQuartile Range below the 1st Quartile or above the 3rd Quartile. Note, some texts use hinges instead of Quartiles. Extreme Outliers Values which lie more than 3.0 times the InterQuartile Range below the 1st Quartile or above the 3rd Quartile. Note, some texts use hinges instead of Quartiles.

Stats: Measures of Central Tendency

The term "Average" is vague

Average could mean one of four things. The arithmetic mean, the median, midrange, or mode. For this reason, it is better to specify which average you're talking about.

Mean
This is what people usually intend when they say "average"

Population Mean:

Sample Mean:

Frequency Distribution: The mean of a frequency distribution is also the weighted mean.

Median
The data must be ranked (sorted in ascending order) first. The median is the number in the middle. To find the depth of the median, there are several formulas that could be used, the one that we will use is:
Depth of median = 0.5 * (n + 1)

Raw Data The median is the number in the "depth of the median" position. If the sample size is even, the depth of the median will be a decimal -- you need to find the midpoint between the numbers on either side of the depth of the median. Ungrouped Frequency Distribution Find the cumulative frequencies for the data. The first value with a cumulative frequency greater than depth of the median is the median. If the depth of the median is

exactly 0.5 more than the cumulative frequency of the previous class, then the median is the midpoint between the two classes. Grouped Frequency Distribution This is the tough one. Since the data is grouped, you have lost all original information. Some textbooks have you simply take the midpoint of the class. This is an over-simplification which isn't the true value (but much easier to do). The correct process is to interpolate. Find out what proportion of the distance into the median class the median by dividing the sample size by 2, subtracting the cumulative frequency of the previous class, and then dividing all that bay the frequency of the median class. Multiply this proportion by the class width and add it to the lower boundary of the median class.

Mode
The mode is the most frequent data value. There may be no mode if no one value appears more than any other. There may also be two modes (bimodal), three modes (trimodal), or more than three modes (multi-modal). For grouped frequency distributions, the modal class is the class with the largest frequency.

Midrange
The midrange is simply the midpoint between the highest and lowest values.

Summary
The Mean is used in computing other statistics (such as the variance) and does not exist for open ended grouped frequency distributions (1). It is often not appropriate for skewed distributions such as salary information.

The Median is the center number and is good for skewed distributions because it is resistant to change. The Mode is used to describe the most typical case. The mode can be used with nominal data whereas the others can't. The mode may or may not exist and there may be more than one value for the mode (2). The Midrange is not used very often. It is a very rough estimate of the average and is greatly affected by extreme values (even more so than the mean).
Property Always Exists Uses all data values Affected by extreme values Mean No (1) Yes Yes Median Yes No No Mode No (2) No No Midrange Yes No Yes

Using the TI-82

One can find the mean, median, and midrange using the list functions of the TI-82. You can also find the measures of variation with the TI-82 calculator.

Stats: Measures of Variation

Range
The range is the simplest measure of variation to find. It is simply the highest value minus the lowest value.
RANGE = MAXIMUM - MINIMUM

Since the range only uses the largest and smallest values, it is greatly affected by extreme values, that is - it is not resistant to change.

Variance

"Average Deviation" The range only involves the smallest and largest numbers, and it would be desirable to have a statistic which involved all of the data values. The first attempt one might make at this is something they might call the average deviation from the mean and define it as:

The problem is that this summation is always zero. So, the average deviation will always be zero. That is why the average deviation is never used. Population Variance So, to keep it from being zero, the deviation from the mean is squared and called the "squared deviation from the mean". This "average squared deviation from the mean" is called the variance.

Unbiased Estimate of the Population Variance One would expect the sample variance to simply be the population variance with the population mean replaced by the sample mean. However, one of the major uses of statistics is to estimate the corresponding parameter. This formula has the problem that the estimated value isn't the same as the parameter. To counteract this, the sum of the squares of the deviations is divided by one less than the sample size.

Standard Deviation
There is a problem with variances. Recall that the deviations were squared. That means that the units were also squared. To get the units back the same as the original data values, the square root must be taken.

The sample standard deviation is not the unbiased estimator for the population standard deviation. The calculator does not have a variance key on it. It does have a standard deviation key. You will have to square the standard deviation to find the variance.

Sum of Squares (shortcuts)

The sum of the squares of the deviations from the means is given a shortcut notation and several alternative formulas.

A little algebraic simplification returns: What's wrong with the first formula, you ask? Consider the following example - the last row are the totals for the columns 1. 2. 3. 4. Total the data values: 23 Divide by the number of values to get the mean: 23/5 = 4.6 Subtract the mean from each value to get the numbers in the second column. Square each number in the second column to get the values in the third column. 5. Total the numbers in the third column: 5.2 6. Divide this total by one less than the sample size to get the variance: 5.2 / 4 = 1.3
x

4 5 3 6 5 23

4 - 4.6 = -0.6 5 - 4.6 = 0.4 3 - 4.6 = -1.6 6 - 4.6 = 1.4 5 - 4.6 = 0.4 0.00 (Always)

( - 0.6 )^2 = 0.36 ( 0.4 ) ^2 = 0.16 ( - 1.6 )^2 = 2.56 ( 1.4 )^2 = 1.96 ( 0.4 )^2 = 0.16 5.2

Not too bad, you think. But this can get pretty bad if the sample mean doesn't happen to be an "nice" rational number. Think about having a mean of 19/7 = 2.714285714285... Those subtractions get nasty, and when you square them, they're really bad. Another problem with the first formula is that it requires you to know the mean ahead of time. For a calculator, this would mean that you have to save all of the numbers that were entered. The TI-82 does this, but most scientific calculators don't. Now, let's consider the shortcut formula. The only things that you need to find are the sum of the values and the sum of the values squared. There is no subtraction and no decimals or fractions until the end. The last row contains the sums of the columns, just like before. 1. Record each number in the first column and the square of each number in the second column. 2. Total the first column: 23 3. Total the second column: 111 4. Compute the sum of squares: 111 - 23*23/5 = 111 - 105.8 = 5.2 5. Divide the sum of squares by one less than the sample size to get the variance = 5.2 / 4 = 1.3
x 4 5 x^2 16 25

3 6 5 23

9 36 25 111

Chebyshev's Theorem
The proportion of the values that fall within k standard deviations of the mean will be at least , where k is an number greater than 1. to .

"Within k standard deviations" interprets as the interval:

Chebyshev's Theorem is true for any sample set, not matter what the distribution.

Empirical Rule
The empirical rule is only valid for bell-shaped (normal) distributions. The following statements are true.

Approximately 68% of the data values fall within one standard deviation of the mean. Approximately 95% of the data values fall within two standard deviations of the mean. Approximately 99.7% of the data values fall within three standard deviations of the mean.

The empirical rule will be revisited later in the chapter on normal probabilities.

Using the TI-82 to find these values

You may use the TI-82 to find the measures of central tendency and the measures of variation using the list handling capabilities of the calculator.

Stats: Measures of Position

Standard Scores (z-scores)

The standard score is obtained by subtracting the mean and dividing the difference by the standard deviation. The symbol is z, which is why it's also called a z-score.

The mean of the standard scores is zero and the standard deviation is 1. This is the nice feature of the standard score -- no matter what the original scale was, when the data is converted to its standard score, the mean is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Percentiles, Deciles, Quartiles

Percentiles (100 regions)

The kth percentile is the number which has k% of the values below it. The data must be ranked. 1. 2. 3. 4. Rank the data Find k% (k /100) of the sample size, n. If this is an integer, add 0.5. If it isn't an integer round up. Find the number in this position. If your depth ends in 0.5, then take the midpoint between the two numbers.

It is sometimes easier to count from the high end rather than counting from the low end. For example, the 80th percentile is the number which has 80% below it and 20% above it. Rather than counting 80% from the bottom, count 20% from the top. Note: The 50th percentile is the median. If you wish to find the percentile for a number (rather than locating the kth percentile), then 1. Take the number of values below the number

2. Add 0.5 3. Divide by the total number of values 4. Convert it to a percent

Deciles (10 regions)

The percentiles divide the data into 100 equal regions. The deciles divide the data into 10 equal regions. The instructions are the same for finding a percentile, except instead of dividing by 100 in step 2, divide by 10.
Quartiles (4 regions)

The quartiles divide the data into 4 equal regions. Instead of dividing by 100 in step 2, divide by 4. Note: The 2nd quartile is the same as the median. The 1st quartile is the 25th percentile, the 3rd quartile is the 75th percentile. The quartiles are commonly used (much more so than the percentiles or deciles). The TI-82 calculator will find the quartiles for you. Some textbooks include the quartiles in the five number summary.

Hinges
The lower hinge is the median of the lower half of the data up to and including the median. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half of the data up to and including the median. The hinges are the same as the quartiles unless the remainder when dividing the sample size by four is three (like 39 / 4 = 9 R 3). The statement about the lower half or upper half including the median tends to be confusing to some students. If the median is split between two values (which happens whenever the sample size is even), the median isn't included in either since the median isn't actually part of the data. Example 1: sample size of 20 The median will be in position 10.5. The lower half is positions 1 - 10 and the upper half is positions 11 - 20. The lower hinge is the median of the lower half and would be in position 5.5. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half and would be in

position 5.5 starting with original position 11 as position 1 -- this is the original position 15.5. Example 2: sample size of 21 The median is in position 11. The lower half is positions 1 - 11 and the upper half is positions 11 - 21. The lower hinge is the median of the lower half and would be in position 6. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half and would be in position 6 when starting at position 11 -- this is original position 16.

Five Number Summary

The five number summary consists of the minimum value, lower hinge, median, upper hinge, and maximum value. Some textbooks use the quartiles instead of the hinges.

Box and Whiskers Plot

A graphical representation of the five number summary. A box is drawn between the lower and upper hinges with a line at the median. Whiskers (a single line, not a box) extend from the hinges to lines at the minimum and maximum values.

Interquartile Range (IQR)

The interquartile range is the difference between the third and first quartiles. That's it: Q3 - Q1

Outliers
Outliers are extreme values. There are mild outliers and extreme outliers. The Bluman text does not distinguish between mild outliers and extreme outliers and just treats either as an outlier.
Extreme Outliers

Extreme outliers are any data values which lie more than 3.0 times the interquartile range below the first quartile or above the third quartile. x is an extreme outlier if ...
x < Q1 - 3 * IQR

or
x > Q3 + 3 * IQR

Mild Outliers

Mild outliers are any data values which lie between 1.5 times and 3.0 times the interquartile range below the first quartile or above the third quartile. x is a mild outlier if ...
Q1 - 3 * IQR <= x < Q1 - 1.5 * IQR

or
Q1 + 1.5 * IQR < x <= Q3 + 3 * IQR

Stats: Measures of Position

Standard Scores (z-scores)

The standard score is obtained by subtracting the mean and dividing the difference by the standard deviation. The symbol is z, which is why it's also called a z-score.

The mean of the standard scores is zero and the standard deviation is 1. This is the nice feature of the standard score -- no matter what the original scale was, when the data is converted to its standard score, the mean is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Percentiles, Deciles, Quartiles

Percentiles (100 regions)

The kth percentile is the number which has k% of the values below it. The data must be ranked. 1. Rank the data 2. Find k% (k /100) of the sample size, n. 3. If this is an integer, add 0.5. If it isn't an integer round up.

4. Find the number in this position. If your depth ends in 0.5, then take the midpoint between the two numbers. It is sometimes easier to count from the high end rather than counting from the low end. For example, the 80th percentile is the number which has 80% below it and 20% above it. Rather than counting 80% from the bottom, count 20% from the top. Note: The 50th percentile is the median. If you wish to find the percentile for a number (rather than locating the kth percentile), then 1. 2. 3. 4. Take the number of values below the number Add 0.5 Divide by the total number of values Convert it to a percent

Deciles (10 regions)

The percentiles divide the data into 100 equal regions. The deciles divide the data into 10 equal regions. The instructions are the same for finding a percentile, except instead of dividing by 100 in step 2, divide by 10.
Quartiles (4 regions)

The quartiles divide the data into 4 equal regions. Instead of dividing by 100 in step 2, divide by 4. Note: The 2nd quartile is the same as the median. The 1st quartile is the 25th percentile, the 3rd quartile is the 75th percentile. The quartiles are commonly used (much more so than the percentiles or deciles). The TI-82 calculator will find the quartiles for you. Some textbooks include the quartiles in the five number summary.

Hinges
The lower hinge is the median of the lower half of the data up to and including the median. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half of the data up to and including the median.

The hinges are the same as the quartiles unless the remainder when dividing the sample size by four is three (like 39 / 4 = 9 R 3). The statement about the lower half or upper half including the median tends to be confusing to some students. If the median is split between two values (which happens whenever the sample size is even), the median isn't included in either since the median isn't actually part of the data. Example 1: sample size of 20 The median will be in position 10.5. The lower half is positions 1 - 10 and the upper half is positions 11 - 20. The lower hinge is the median of the lower half and would be in position 5.5. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half and would be in position 5.5 starting with original position 11 as position 1 -- this is the original position 15.5. Example 2: sample size of 21 The median is in position 11. The lower half is positions 1 - 11 and the upper half is positions 11 - 21. The lower hinge is the median of the lower half and would be in position 6. The upper hinge is the median of the upper half and would be in position 6 when starting at position 11 -- this is original position 16.

Five Number Summary

The five number summary consists of the minimum value, lower hinge, median, upper hinge, and maximum value. Some textbooks use the quartiles instead of the hinges.

Box and Whiskers Plot

A graphical representation of the five number summary. A box is drawn between the lower and upper hinges with a line at the median. Whiskers (a single line, not a box) extend from the hinges to lines at the minimum and maximum values.

Interquartile Range (IQR)

The interquartile range is the difference between the third and first quartiles. That's it: Q3 - Q1

Outliers

Outliers are extreme values. There are mild outliers and extreme outliers. The Bluman text does not distinguish between mild outliers and extreme outliers and just treats either as an outlier.
Extreme Outliers

Extreme outliers are any data values which lie more than 3.0 times the interquartile range below the first quartile or above the third quartile. x is an extreme outlier if ...
x < Q1 - 3 * IQR

or
x > Q3 + 3 * IQR

Mild Outliers

Mild outliers are any data values which lie between 1.5 times and 3.0 times the interquartile range below the first quartile or above the third quartile. x is a mild outlier if ...
Q1 - 3 * IQR <= x < Q1 - 1.5 * IQR

or
Q1 + 1.5 * IQR < x <= Q3 + 3 * IQR

Stats: Counting Techniques

Definitions
Factorial A positive integer factorial is the product of each natural number up to and including the integer. Permutation An arrangement of objects in a specific order. Combination

A selection of objects without regard to order. Tree Diagram A graphical device used to list all possibilities of a sequence of events in a systematic way.

Stats: Counting Techniques

Fundamental Theorems Arithmetic Every integer greater than one is either prime or can be expressed as an unique product of prime numbers Algebra Every polynomial function on one variable of degree n > 0 has at least one real or complex zero. Linear Programming If there is a solution to a linear programming problem, then it will occur at a corner point or on a boundary between two or more corner points

Fundamental Counting Principle

In a sequence of events, the total possible number of ways all events can performed is the product of the possible number of ways each individual event can be performed. The Bluman text calls this multiplication principle 2.

Factorials
If n is a positive integer, then
n! = n (n-1) (n-2) ... (3)(2)(1) n! = n (n-1)!

A special case is 0!
0! = 1

Permutations
A permutation is an arrangement of objects without repetition where order is important. Permutations using all the objects A permutation of n objects, arranged into one group of size n, without repetition, and order being important is:
nPn

= P(n,n) = n!

Example: Find all permutations of the letters "ABC"

ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA

Permutations of some of the objects A permutation of n objects, arranged in groups of size r, without repetition, and order being important is:
nPr

= P(n,r) = n! / (n-r)!

Example: Find all two-letter permutations of the letters "ABC"

AB AC BA BC CA CB

Shortcut formula for finding a permutation

Assuming that you start a n and count down to 1 in your factorials ... P(n,r) = first r factors of n factorial Distinguishable Permutations Sometimes letters are repeated and all of the permutations aren't distinguishable from each other. Example: Find all permutations of the letters "BOB"

To help you distinguish, I'll write the second "B" as "b"

BOb BbO OBb ObB bBO bOB

If you just write "B" as "B", however ...

BOB BBO OBB OBB BBO BBO

There are really only three distinguishable permutations here.

BOB BBO OBB

If a word has N letters, k of which are unique, and you let n (n1, n2, n3, ..., nk) be the frequency of each of the k letters, then the total number of distinguishable permutations is given by:

Consider the word "STATISTICS": Here are the frequency of each letter: S=3, T=3, A=1, I=2, C=1, there are 10 letters total
10! 10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 Permutations = -------------- = -------------------- = 50400 3! 3! 1! 2! 1! 6 * 6 * 1 * 2 * 1

You can find distinguishable permutations using the TI-82.

Combinations
A combination is an arrangement of objects without repetition where order is not important. Note: The difference between a permutation and a combination is not whether there is repetition or not -- there must not be repetition with either, and if there is repetition, you can not use the formulas for permutations or combinations. The only difference in the definition of a permutation and a combination is whether order is important. A combination of n objects, arranged in groups of size r, without repetition, and order being important is:

nCr

= C(n,r) = n! / ( (n-r)! * r! )

Another way to write a combination of n things, r at a time is using the binomial notation: Example: Find all two-letter combinations of the letters "ABC"
AB = BA AC = CA BC = CB

There are only three two-letter combinations.

Shortcut formula for finding a combination

Assuming that you start a n and count down to 1 in your factorials ... C(n,r) = first r factors of n factorial divided by the last r factors of n factorial Pascal's Triangle Combinations are used in the binomial expansion theorem from algebra to give the coefficients of the expansion (a+b)^n. They also form a pattern known as Pascal's Triangle.
1 1 1 1 1 4 1 5 3 6 10 2 3 4 1 1 1

1 10 5 1 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1

Each element in the table is the sum of the two elements directly above it. Each element is also a combination. The n value is the number of the row (start counting at zero) and the r value is the element in the row (start counting at zero). That would make the 20 in the next to last row C(6,3) -- it's in the row #6 (7th row) and position #3 (4th element). Symmetry Pascal's Triangle illustrates the symmetric nature of a combination. C(n,r)
r) = C(n,n-

Example: C(10,4) = C(10,6) or C(100,99) = C(100,1)

Shortcut formula for finding a combination

Since combinations are symmetric, if n-r is smaller than r, then switch the combination to its alternative form and then use the shortcut given above. C(n,r) = first r factors of n factorial divided by the last r factors of n factorial

TI-82
You can use the TI-82 graphing calculator to find factorials, permutations, and combinations.

Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams are a graphical way of listing all the possible outcomes. The outcomes are listed in an orderly fashion, so listing all of the possible outcomes is easier than just trying to make sure that you have them all listed. It is called a tree diagram because of the way it looks. The first event appears on the left, and then each sequential event is represented as branches off of the first event. The tree diagram to the right would show the possible ways of flipping two coins. The final outcomes are obtained by following each branch to its conclusion: They are from top to bottom:
HH HT TH TT

Stats: Probability

Definitions
Probability Experiment Process which leads to well-defined results call outcomes Outcome

The result of a single trial of a probability experiment Sample Space Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment Event One or more outcomes of a probability experiment Classical Probability Uses the sample space to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. Also called theoretical probability. Equally Likely Events Events which have the same probability of occurring. Complement of an Event All the events in the sample space except the given events. Empirical Probability Uses a frequency distribution to determine the numerical probability. An empirical probability is a relative frequency. Subjective Probability Uses probability values based on an educated guess or estimate. It employs opinions and inexact information. Mutually Exclusive Events Two events which cannot happen at the same time. Disjoint Events Another name for mutually exclusive events. Independent Events

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other occurring. Dependent Events Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed. Conditional Probability The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. Bayes' Theorem A formula which allows one to find the probability that an event occurred as the result of a particular previous event.

Stats: Introduction to Probability

Sample Spaces
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. However, some sample spaces are better than others. Consider the experiment of flipping two coins. It is possible to get 0 heads, 1 head, or 2 heads. Thus, the sample space could be {0, 1, 2}. Another way to look at it is flip { HH, HT, TH, TT }. The second way is better because each event is as equally likely to occur as any other. When writing the sample space, it is highly desirable to have events which are equally likely. Another example is rolling two dice. The sums are { 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 }. However, each of these aren't equally likely. The only way to get a sum 2 is to roll a 1 on both dice, but you can get a sum of 4 by rolling a 1-3, 2-2, or 3-1. The following table illustrates a better sample space for the sum obtain when rolling two dice.

Second Die First Die 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Classical Probability
The above table lends itself to describing data another way -- using a probability distribution. Let's consider the frequency distribution for the above sums.
Sum Frequency Relative Frequency 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36

2 3 4 5 6 7

1 2 3 4 5 6

8 9 10 11 12

5 4 3 2 1

5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

If just the first and last columns were written, we would have a probability distribution. The relative frequency of a frequency distribution is the probability of the event occurring. This is only true, however, if the events are equally likely. This gives us the formula for classical probability. The probability of an event occurring is the number in the event divided by the number in the sample space. Again, this is only true when the events are equally likely. A classical probability is the relative frequency of each event in the sample space when each event is equally likely.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) Empirical Probability

Empirical probability is based on observation. The empirical probability of an event is the relative frequency of a frequency distribution based upon observation.

P(E) = f / n Probability Rules

There are two rules which are very important. All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive

0 <= P(E) <= 1

The sum of all the probabilities in the sample space is 1 There are some other rules which are also important. The probability of an event which cannot occur is 0. The probability of any event which is not in the sample space is zero. The probability of an event which must occur is 1. The probability of the sample space is 1. The probability of an event not occurring is one minus the probability of it occurring. P(E') = 1 - P(E) Continue and learn more about the rules of probability.

Stats: Probability Rules

"OR" or Unions
Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. Another word that means mutually exclusive is disjoint. If two events are disjoint, then the probability of them both occurring at the same time is 0. Disjoint: P(A and B) = 0

If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each occurring. Specific Addition Rule Only valid when the events are mutually exclusive. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1: Given: P(A) = 0.20, P(B) = 0.70, A and B are disjoint I like to use what's called a joint probability distribution. (Since disjoint means nothing in common, joint is what they have in common -- so the values that go on the inside portion of the table are the intersections or "and"s of each pair of events). "Marginal" is another word for totals -- it's called marginal because they appear in the margins.
B A A' Marginal 0.00 0.70 0.70 B' 0.20 0.10 0.30 Marginal 0.20 0.80 1.00

The values in red are given in the problem. The grand total is always 1.00. The rest of the values are obtained by addition and subtraction.
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

In events which aren't mutually exclusive, there is some overlap. When P(A) and P(B) are added, the probability of the intersection (and) is added twice. To compensate for that double addition, the intersection needs to be subtracted. General Addition Rule Always valid. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) Example 2: Given P(A) = 0.20, P(B) = 0.70, P(A and B) = 0.15
B B' Marginal

A A' Marginal

0.15 0.55 0.70

0.05 0.25 0.30

0.20 0.80 1.00

Interpreting the table

Certain things can be determined from the joint probability distribution. Mutually exclusive events will have a probability of zero. All inclusive events will have a zero opposite the intersection. All inclusive means that there is nothing outside of those two events: P(A or B) = 1.
B A A and B are Mutually Exclusive if this value is 0 . B' . Marginal .

A'

A and B are All Inclusive if this value is 0 .

Marginal

1.00

"AND" or Intersections
Independent Events

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other occurring. An example would be rolling a 2 on a die and flipping a head on a coin. Rolling the 2 does not affect the probability of flipping the head. If events are independent, then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of each occurring.

Specific Multiplication Rule Only valid for independent events P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) Example 3: P(A) = 0.20, P(B) = 0.70, A and B are independent.
B A A' Marginal 0.14 0.56 0.70 B' 0.06 0.24 0.30 Marginal 0.20 0.80 1.00

The 0.14 is because the probability of A and B is the probability of A times the probability of B or 0.20 * 0.70 = 0.14.
Dependent Events

If the occurrence of one event does affect the probability of the other occurring, then the events are dependent. Conditional Probability The probability of event B occurring that event A has already occurred is read "the probability of B given A" and is written: P(B|A) General Multiplication Rule Always works. P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) Example 4: P(A) = 0.20, P(B) = 0.70, P(B|A) = 0.40

A good way to think of P(B|A) is that 40% of A is B. 40% of the 20% which was in event A is 8%, thus the intersection is 0.08.
B A A' Marginal 0.08 0.62 0.70 B' 0.12 0.18 0.30 Marginal 0.20 0.80 1.00

Independence Revisited

The following four statements are equivalent 1. 2. 3. 4. A and B are independent events P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) P(A|B) = P(A) P(B|A) = P(B)

The last two are because if two events are independent, the occurrence of one doesn't change the probability of the occurrence of the other. This means that the probability of B occurring, whether A has happened or not, is simply the probability of B occurring. Continue with conditional probabilities.

Stats: Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability
Recall that the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred is called a conditional probability. The probability that event B occurs, given that event A has already occurred is

P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A) This formula comes from the general multiplication principle and a little bit of algebra. Since we are given that event A has occurred, we have a reduced sample space. Instead of the entire sample space S, we now have a sample space of A since we know A has occurred. So the old rule about being the number in the event divided by the number in the sample space still applies. It is the number in A and B (must be in A since A has occurred) divided by the number in A. If you then divided numerator and denominator of the right hand side by the number in the sample space S, then you have the probability of A and B divided by the probability of A.
Examples

Example 1: The question, "Do you smoke?" was asked of 100 people. Results are shown in the table.
. Male Female Total Yes 19 12 31 No 41 28 69 Total 60 40 100

What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male who smokes? This is just a joint probability. The number of "Male and Smoke" divided by the total = 19/100 = 0.19 What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male? This is the total for male divided by the total = 60/100 = 0.60. Since no mention is made of smoking or not smoking, it includes all the cases. What is the probability of a randomly selected individual smoking? Again, since no mention is made of gender, this is a marginal probability, the total who smoke divided by the total = 31/100 = 0.31. What is the probability of a randomly selected male smoking? This time, you're told that you have a male - think of stratified sampling. What is the

probability that the male smokes? Well, 19 males smoke out of 60 males, so 19/60 = 0.31666... What is the probability that a randomly selected smoker is male? This time, you're told that you have a smoker and asked to find the probability that the smoker is also male. There are 19 male smokers out of 31 total smokers, so 19/31 = 0.6129 (approx)

After that last part, you have just worked a Bayes' Theorem problem. I know you didn't realize it - that's the beauty of it. A Bayes' problem can be set up so it appears to be just another conditional probability. In this class we will treat Bayes' problems as another conditional probability and not involve the large messy formula given in the text (and every other text). Example 2: There are three major manufacturing companies that make a product: Aberations, Brochmailians, and Chompielians. Aberations has a 50% market share, and Brochmailians has a 30% market share. 5% of Aberations' product is defective, 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective, and 10% of Chompieliens' product is defective. This information can be placed into a joint probability distribution
Company Aberations Brochmailians Chompieliens Total Good 0.50-0.025 = 0.475 0.30-0.021 = 0.279 0.20-0.020 = 0.180 0.934 Defective 0.05(0.50) = 0.025 0.07(0.30) = 0.021 0.10(0.20) = 0.020 0.066 Total 0.50 0.30 0.20 1.00

The percent of the market share for Chompieliens wasn't given, but since the marginals must add to be 1.00, they have a 20% market share. Notice that the 5%, 7%, and 10% defective rates don't go into the table directly. This is because they are conditional probabilities and the table is a joint probability table. These defective probabilities are conditional upon which company was given. That is,

the 7% is not P(Defective), but P(Defective|Brochmailians). The joint probability P(Defective and Brochmailians) = P(Defective|Brochmailians) * P(Brochmailians). The "good" probabilities can be found by subtraction as shown above, or by multiplication using conditional probabilities. If 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective, then 93% is good. 0.93(0.30)=0.279.

What is the probability a randomly selected product is defective? P(Defective) = 0.066 What is the probability that a defective product came from Brochmailians? P(Brochmailian|Defective) = P(Brochmailian and Defective) / P(Defective) = 0.021/0.066 = 7/22 = 0.318 (approx). Are these events independent? No. If they were, then P(Brochmailians|Defective)=0.318 would have to equal the P(Brochmailians)=0.30, but it doesn't. Also, the P(Aberations and Defective)=0.025 would have to be P(Aberations)*P(Defective) = 0.50*0.066=0.033, and it doesn't.

The second question asked above is a Bayes' problem. Again, my point is, you don't have to know Bayes formula just to work a Bayes' problem.

Bayes' Theorem
However, just for the sake of argument, let's say that you want to know what Bayes' formula is. Let's use the same example, but shorten each event to its one letter initial, ie: A, B, C, and D instead of Aberations, Brochmailians, Chompieliens, and Defective. P(D|B) is not a Bayes problem. This is given in the problem. Bayes' formula finds the reverse conditional probability P(B|D). It is based that the Given (D) is made of three parts, the part of D in A, the part of D in B, and the part of D in C.
P(B|D) = P(B and D) ----------------------------------------P(A and D) + P(B and D) + P(C and D)

Inserting the multiplication rule for each of these joint probabilities gives
P(B|D) = P(D|B)*P(B) -----------------------------------------

P(D|A)*P(A) + P(D|B)*P(B) + P(D|C)*P(C)

However, and I hope you agree, it is much easier to take the joint probability divided by the marginal probability. The table does the adding for you and makes the problems doable without having to memorize the formulas.

Stats: Probability Distributions

Definitions
Random Variable Variable whose values are determined by chance Probability Distribution The values a random variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities of each. Expected Value The theoretical mean of the variable. Binomial Experiment An experiment with a fixed number of independent trials. Each trial can only have two outcomes, or outcomes which can be reduced to two outcomes. The probability of each outcome must remain constant from trial to trial. Binomial Distribution The outcomes of a binomial experiment with their corresponding probabilities. Multinomial Distribution

A probability distribution resulting from an experiment with a fixed number of independent trials. Each trial has two or more mutually exclusive outcomes. The probability of each outcome must remain constant from trial to trial. Poisson Distribution A probability distribution used when a density of items is distributed over a period of time. The sample size needs to be large and the probability of success to be small. Hypergeometric Distribution A probability distribution of a variable with two outcomes when sampling is done without replacement.

Stats: Probability Distributions

Probability Functions
A probability function is a function which assigns probabilities to the values of a random variable.

All the probabilities must be between 0 and 1 inclusive The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes must be 1.

If these two conditions aren't met, then the function isn't a probability function. There is no requirement that the values of the random variable only be between 0 and 1, only that the probabilities be between 0 and 1.

Probability Distributions
A listing of all the values the random variable can assume with their corresponding probabilities make a probability distribution. A note about random variables. A random variable does not mean that the values can be anything (a random number). Random variables have a well defined set of outcomes and well defined probabilities for the occurrence of each outcome. The

random refers to the fact that the outcomes happen by chance -- that is, you don't know which outcome will occur next. Here's an example probability distribution that results from the rolling of a single fair die.
x p(x) 1 1/6 2 1/6 3 1/6 4 1/6 5 1/6 6 1/6 sum 6/6=1

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

Consider the following. The definitions for population mean and variance used with an ungrouped frequency distribution were: Some of you might be confused by only dividing by N. Recall that this is the population variance, the sample variance, which was the unbiased estimator for the population variance was when it was divided by n-1.

Using algebra, this is equivalent to: Recall that a probability is a long term relative frequency. So every f/N can be replaced by p(x). This simplifies to be: What's even better, is that the last portion of the variance is the mean squared. So, the two formulas that we will be using are:

Here's the example we were working on earlier.

x p(x) x p(x) x^2 p(x)

1 1/6 1/6 1/6

2 1/6 2/6 4/6

3 1/6 3/6 9/6

4 1/6 4/6 16/6

5 1/6 5/6 25/6

6 1/6 6/6 36/6

sum 6/6 = 1 21/6 = 3.5 91/6 = 15.1667

The mean is 7/2 or 3.5 The variance is 91/6 - (7/2)^2 = 35/12 = 2.916666... The standard deviation is the square root of the variance = 1.7078 Do not use rounded off values in the intermediate calculations. Only round off the final answer. You can learn how to find the mean and variance of a probability distribution using lists with the TI-82 or using the program called pdist.

Stats: Binomial Probabilities

Binomial Experiment
A binomial experiment is an experiment which satisfies these four conditions

A fixed number of trials Each trial is independent of the others There are only two outcomes The probability of each outcome remains constant from trial to trial.

These can be summarized as: An experiment with a fixed number of independent trials, each of which can only have two possible outcomes. The fact that each trial is independent actually means that the probabilities remain constant.

Examples of binomial experiments

Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur. Asking 200 people if they watch ABC news. Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.

Examples which aren't binomial experiments

Rolling a die until a 6 appears (not a fixed number of trials) Asking 20 people how old they are (not two outcomes) Drawing 5 cards from a deck for a poker hand (done without replacement, so not independent)

Binomial Probability Function

Example: What is the probability of rolling exactly two sixes in 6 rolls of a die? There are five things you need to do to work a binomial story problem. 1. Define Success first. Success must be for a single trial. Success = "Rolling a 6 on a single die" 2. Define the probability of success (p): p = 1/6 3. Find the probability of failure: q = 5/6 4. Define the number of trials: n = 6 5. Define the number of successes out of those trials: x = 2 Anytime a six appears, it is a success (denoted S) and anytime something else appears, it is a failure (denoted F). The ways you can get exactly 2 successes in 6 trials are given below. The probability of each is written to the right of the way it could occur. Because the trials are independent, the probability of the event (all six dice) is the product of each probability of each outcome (die)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 FFFFSS FFFSFS FFFSSF FFSFFS FFSFSF FFSSFF FSFFFS FSFFSF FSFSFF 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 * * * * * * * * * 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 * * * * * * * * * 5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 * * * * * * * * * 5/6 1/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 * * * * * * * * * 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 * * * * * * * * * 1/6 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 = = = = = = = = = (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 * * * * * * * * * (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4

10 11 12 13 14 15

FSSFFF SFFFFS SFFFSF SFFSFF SFSFFF SSFFFF

5/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

* * * * * *

1/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6

* * * * * *

1/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6

* * * * * *

5/6 5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6

* * * * * *

5/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 5/6

* * * * * *

5/6 1/6 5/6 5/6 5/6 5/6

= = = = = =

(1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2 (1/6)^2

* * * * * *

(5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4 (5/6)^4

Notice that each of the 15 probabilities are exactly the same: (1/6)^2 * (5/6)^4. Also, note that the 1/6 is the probability of success and you needed 2 successes. The 5/6 is the probability of failure, and if 2 of the 6 trials were success, then 4 of the 6 must be failures. Note that 2 is the value of x and 4 is the value of n-x. Further note that there are fifteen ways this can occur. This is the number of ways 2 successes can be occur in 6 trials without repetition and order not being important, or a combination of 6 things, 2 at a time. The probability of getting exactly x success in n trials, with the probability of success on a single trial being p is: P(X=x) = nCx * p^x * q^(n-x) Example: A coin is tossed 10 times. What is the probability that exactly 6 heads will occur. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Success = "A head is flipped on a single coin" p = 0.5 q = 0.5 n = 10 x=6

P(x=6) = 10C6 * 0.5^6 * 0.5^4 = 210 * 0.015625 * 0.0625 = 0.205078125

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are extremely easy to find.

Another way to remember the variance is mu-q (since the np is mu). Example: Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the number of sixes that appear when rolling 30 dice. Success = "a six is rolled on a single die". p = 1/6, q = 5/6. The mean is 30 * (1/6) = 5. The variance is 30 * (1/6) * (5/6) = 25/6. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance = 2.041241452 (approx)

Stats: Other Discrete Distributions

Multinomial Probabilities
A multinomial experiment is an extended binomial probability. The difference is that in a multinomial experiment, there are more than two possible outcomes. However, there are still a fixed number of independent trials, and the probability of each outcome must remain constant from trial to trial. Instead of using a combination, as in the case of the binomial probability, the number of ways the outcomes can occur is done using distinguishable permutations. An example here will be much more useful than a formula. The probability that a person will pass a College Algebra class is 0.55, the probability that a person will withdraw before the class is completed is 0.40, and the probability that a person will fail the class is 0.05. Find the probability that in a class of 30 students, exactly 16 pass, 12 withdraw, and 2 fail.
Outcome Pass x 16 p(outcome) 0.55

Withdraw Fail Total

12 2 30

0.40 0.05 1.00

The probability is found using this formula:

30! P = ---------------- * 0.55^16 * 0.40^12 * 0.05^2 (16!) (12!) (2!)

You can do this on the TI-82.

Poisson Probabilities
Named after the French mathematician Simeon Poisson, Poisson probabilities are useful when there are a large number of independent trials with a small probability of success on a single trial and the variables occur over a period of time. It can also be used when a density of items is distributed over a given area or volume.

Lambda in the formula is the mean number of occurrences. If you're approximating a binomial probability using the Poisson, then lambda is the same as mu or n * p. Example: If there are 500 customers per eight-hour day in a check-out lane, what is the probability that there will be exactly 3 in line during any five-minute period? The expected value during any one five minute period would be 500 / 96 = 5.2083333. The 96 is because there are 96 five-minute periods in eight hours. So, you expect about 5.2 customers in 5 minutes and want to know the probability of getting exactly 3.
p(3;500/96) = e^(-500/96) * (500/96)^3 / 3! = 0.1288 (approx)

Hypergeometric Probabilities

Hypergeometric experiments occur when the trials are not independent of each other and occur due to sampling without replacement -- as in a five card poker hand. Hypergeometric probabilities involve the multiplication of two combinations together and then division by the total number of combinations. Example: How many ways can 3 men and 4 women be selected from a group of 7 men and 10 women?

The answer is

= 7350/19448 = 0.3779 (approx)

Note that the sum of the numbers in the numerator are the numbers used in the combination in the denominator. This can be extended to more than two groups and called an extended hypergeometric problem. You can use the TI-82 to find hypergeometric probabilities. Stats: Normal Distribution

Definitions
Central Limit Theorem Theorem which stats as the sample size increases, the sampling distribution of the sample means will become approximately normally distributed. Correction for Continuity A correction applied to convert a discrete distribution to a continuous distribution.

Finite Population Correction Factor A correction applied to the standard error of the means when the sample size is more than 5% of the population size and the sampling is done without replacement. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means Distribution obtained by using the means computed from random samples of a specific size. Sampling Error Difference which occurs between the sample statistic and the population parameter due to the fact that the sample isn't a perfect representation of the population. Standard Error or the Mean The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample means. It is equal to the standard deviation of the population divided by the square root of the sample size. Standard Normal Distribution A normal distribution in which the mean is 0 and the standard deviation is 1. It is denoted by z. Z-score Also known as z-value. A standardized score in which the mean is zero and the standard deviation is 1. The Z score is used to represent the standard normal distribution.

Stats - Normal Distributions

Any Normal Distribution

Bell-shaped Symmetric about mean Continuous Never touches the x-axis Total area under curve is 1.00 Approximately 68% lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean, 95% within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations of the mean. This is the Empirical Rule mentioned earlier. Data values represented by x which has mean mu and standard deviation sigma.

Probability Function given by

Standard Normal Distribution

Same as a normal distribution, but also ...

Mean is zero Variance is one Standard Deviation is one Data values represented by z.

Probability Function given by

Normal Probabilities
Comprehension of this table is vital to success in the course!

There is a table which must be used to look up standard normal probabilities. The zscore is broken into two parts, the whole number and tenth are looked up along the left side and the hundredth is looked up across the top. The value in the intersection of

the row and column is the area under the curve between zero and the z-score looked up. Because of the symmetry of the normal distribution, look up the absolute value of any z-score.
Computing Normal Probabilities

There are several different situations that can arise when asked to find normal probabilities.
Situation Between zero and any number Between two positives, or Between two negatives Between a negative and a positive Less than a negative, or Greater than a positive Greater than a negative, or Less than a positive Instructions Look up the area in the table

Look up both areas in the table and subtract the smaller from the larger. Look up both areas in the table and add them together

Look up the area in the table and subtract from 0.5000

Look up the area in the table and add to 0.5000

This can be shortened into two rules. 1. If there is only one z-score given, use 0.5000 for the second area, otherwise look up both z-scores in the table 2. If the two numbers are the same sign, then subtract; if they are different signs, then add. If there is only one z-score, then use the inequality to determine the second sign (< is negative, and > is positive).

Finding z-scores from probabilities

This is more difficult, and requires you to use the table inversely. You must look up the area between zero and the value on the inside part of the table, and then read the zscore from the outside. Finally, decide if the z-score should be positive or negative, based on whether it was on the left side or the right side of the mean. Remember, zscores can be negative, but areas or probabilities cannot be.
Situation Area between 0 and a value Instructions Look up the area in the table Make negative if on the left side Subtract the area from 0.5000 Look up the difference in the table Make negative if in the left tail Subtract 0.5000 from the area Look up the difference in the table Make negative if on the left side Divide the area by 2 Look up the quotient in the table Use both the positive and negative z-scores Subtract the area from 1.000 Divide the area by 2 Look up the quotient in the table Use both the positive and negative z-scores

Area in one tail

Area including one complete half (Less than a positive or greater than a negative) Within z units of the mean

Two tails with equal area (More than z units from the mean)

Using the table becomes proficient with practice, work lots of the normal probability problems!

Standard Normal Probabilities

z 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.0 2 0.0 3 0.0 4 0.0 5 0.0 6 0.0 7 0.0 8 0.0 9

0.0 0 0.0 000

0.0 1 0.0 040

0.0 2 0.0 080

0.0 3 0.0 120

0.0 4 0.0 160

0.0 5 0.0 199

0.0 6 0.0 239

0.0 7 0.0 279

0.0 8 0.0 319

0.0 9 0.0 359

0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 .

0.0 398

0.0 438

0.0 478

0.0 517

0.0 557

0.0 596

0.0 636

0.0 675

0.0 714

0.0 753

0.0 793

0.0 832

0.0 871

0.0 910

0.0 948

0.0 987

0.1 026

0.1 064

0.1 103

0.1 141

0.1 179

0.1 217

0.1 255

0.1 293

0.1 331

0.1 368

0.1 406

0.1 443

0.1 480

0.1 517

0.1 554

0.1 591

0.1 628

0.1 664

0.1 700

0.1 736

0.1 772

0.1 808

0.1 844

0.1 879

0.1 915

0.1 950

0.1 985

0.2 019

0.2 054

0.2 088

0.2 123

0.2 157

0.2 190

0.2 224

0.2 257

0.2 291

0.2 324

0.2 357

0.2 389

0.2 422

0.2 454

0.2 486

0.2 517

0.2 549

0.2 580

0.2 611

0.2 642

0.2 673

0.2 704

0.2 734

0.2 764

0.2 794

0.2 823

0.2 852

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.0 0 881 0.3 159

0.0 1 910 0.3 186

0.0 2 939 0.3 212

0.0 3 967 0.3 238

0.0 4 995 0.3 264

0.0 5 023 0.3 289

0.0 6 051 0.3 315

0.0 7 078 0.3 340

0.0 8 106 0.3 365

0.0 9 133 0.3 389

8 0 . 9 1 . 0 1 . 1 1 . 2 1 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 5 1 . 6

0.3 413

0.3 438

0.3 461

0.3 485

0.3 508

0.3 531

0.3 554

0.3 577

0.3 599

0.3 621

0.3 643

0.3 665

0.3 686

0.3 708

0.3 729

0.3 749

0.3 770

0.3 790

0.3 810

0.3 830

0.3 849

0.3 869

0.3 888

0.3 907

0.3 925

0.3 944

0.3 962

0.3 980

0.3 997

0.4 015

0.4 032

0.4 049

0.4 066

0.4 082

0.4 099

0.4 115

0.4 131

0.4 147

0.4 162

0.4 177

0.4 192

0.4 207

0.4 222

0.4 236

0.4 251

0.4 265

0.4 279

0.4 292

0.4 306

0.4 319

0.4 332

0.4 345

0.4 357

0.4 370

0.4 382

0.4 394

0.4 406

0.4 418

0.4 429

0.4 441

0.4 452

0.4 463

0.4 474

0.4 484

0.4 495

0.4 505

0.4 515

0.4 525

0.4 535

0.4 545

0.0 0 0.4 554

0.0 1 0.4 564

0.0 2 0.4 573

0.0 3 0.4 582

0.0 4 0.4 591

0.0 5 0.4 599

0.0 6 0.4 608

0.0 7 0.4 616

0.0 8 0.4 625

0.0 9 0.4 633

1 . 7 1 . 8 1 . 9 2 . 0 2 . 1 2 . 2 2 . 3 2 . 4 2 .

0.4 641

0.4 649

0.4 656

0.4 664

0.4 671

0.4 678

0.4 686

0.4 693

0.4 699

0.4 706

0.4 713

0.4 719

0.4 726

0.4 732

0.4 738

0.4 744

0.4 750

0.4 756

0.4 761

0.4 767

0.4 772

0.4 778

0.4 783

0.4 788

0.4 793

0.4 798

0.4 803

0.4 808

0.4 812

0.4 817

0.4 821

0.4 826

0.4 830

0.4 834

0.4 838

0.4 842

0.4 846

0.4 850

0.4 854

0.4 857

0.4 861

0.4 864

0.4 868

0.4 871

0.4 875

0.4 878

0.4 881

0.4 884

0.4 887

0.4 890

0.4 893

0.4 896

0.4 898

0.4 901

0.4 904

0.4 906

0.4 909

0.4 911

0.4 913

0.4 916

0.4 918

0.4 920

0.4 922

0.4 925

0.4 927

0.4 929

0.4 931

0.4 932

0.4 934

0.4 936

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.0 0 938 0.4 953

0.0 1 940 0.4 955

0.0 2 941 0.4 956

0.0 3 943 0.4 957

0.0 4 945 0.4 959

0.0 5 946 0.4 960

0.0 6 948 0.4 961

0.0 7 949 0.4 962

0.0 8 951 0.4 963

0.0 9 952 0.4 964

5 2 . 6 2 . 7 2 . 8 2 . 9 3 . 0

0.4 965

0.4 966

0.4 967

0.4 968

0.4 969

0.4 970

0.4 971

0.4 972

0.4 973

0.4 974

0.4 974

0.4 975

0.4 976

0.4 977

0.4 977

0.4 978

0.4 979

0.4 979

0.4 980

0.4 981

0.4 981

0.4 982

0.4 982

0.4 983

0.4 984

0.4 984

0.4 985

0.4 985

0.4 986

0.4 986

0.4 987

0.4 987

0.4 987

0.4 988

0.4 988

0.4 989

0.4 989

0.4 989

0.4 990

0.4 990

The values in the table are the areas between zero and the z-score. That is, P(0<Z<z-score)

Stats: Central Limit Theorem

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means

Instead of working with individual scores, statisticians often work with means. What happens is that several samples are taken, the mean is computed for each sample, and

then the means are used as the data, rather than individual scores being used. The sample is a sampling distribution of the sample means. When all of the possible sample means are computed, then the following properties are true:

The mean of the sample means will be the mean of the population The variance of the sample means will be the variance of the population divided by the sample size. The standard deviation of the sample means (known as the standard error of the mean) will be smaller than the population mean and will be equal to the standard deviation of the population divided by the square root of the sample size. If the population has a normal distribution, then the sample means will have a normal distribution. If the population is not normally distributed, but the sample size is sufficiently large, then the sample means will have an approximately normal distribution. Some books define sufficiently large as at least 30 and others as at least 31.

The formula for a z-score when working with the sample means is:

Finite Population Correction Factor

If the sample size is more than 5% of the population size and the sampling is done without replacement, then a correction needs to be made to the standard error of the means. In the following, N is the population size and n is the sample size. The adjustment is to multiply the standard error by the square root of the quotient of the difference between the population and sample sizes and one less than the population

size. For the most part, we will be ignoring this in class.

Stats: Normal Approximation to Binomial

Recall that according to the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean of any distribution will become approximately normal if the sample size is sufficiently large. It turns out that the binomial distribution can be approximated using the normal distribution if np and nq are both at least 5. Furthermore, recall that the mean of a binomial distribution is np and the variance of the binomial distribution is npq.

Continuity Correction Factor

There is a problem with approximating the binomial with the normal. That problem arises because the binomial distribution is a discrete distribution while the normal distribution is a continuous distribution. The basic difference here is that with discrete values, we are talking about heights but no widths, and with the continuous distribution we are talking about both heights and widths. The correction is to either add or subtract 0.5 of a unit from each discrete x-value. This fills in the gaps to make it continuous. This is very similar to expanding of limits to form boundaries that we did with group frequency distributions. Examples
Discrete x=6 x>6 x >= 6 x<6 x <= 6 Continuous 5.5 < x < 6.5 x > 6.5 x > 5.5 x < 5.5 x < 6.5

As you can see, whether or not the equal to is included makes a big difference in the discrete distribution and the way the conversion is performed. However, for a continuous distribution, equality makes no difference. Steps to working a normal approximation to the binomial distribution 1. Identify success, the probability of success, the number of trials, and the desired number of successes. Since this is a binomial problem, these are the same things which were identified when working a binomial problem. 2. Convert the discrete x to a continuous x. Some people would argue that step 3 should be done before this step, but go ahead and convert the x before you forget about it and miss the problem. 3. Find the smaller of np or nq. If the smaller one is at least five, then the larger must also be, so the approximation will be considered good. When you find np, you're actually finding the mean, mu, so denote it as such. 4. Find the standard deviation, sigma = sqrt (npq). It might be easier to find the variance and just stick the square root in the final calculation - that way you don't have to work with all of the decimal places. 5. Compute the z-score using the standard formula for an individual score (not the one for a sample mean). 6. Calculate the probability desired.