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Tuesday, Aug 06, 2013

Waterlogged; Full Rain Gauges Continue


Tuesday, August 6th, 2013 Have you ever heard of Dippin Dot hail? Neither have I, but the picture below looks like dippin dots dont they? Montana Hail

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August 2013
Full Rain Gauges Excessive Rainfall over the last several days in the Central Plains has led to a number of flash flood warnings. Some impressive rainfall tallies have already been showing up and it appears that more heavy rain could be on the way for the rest of the week! The image below is from earlier this week/weekend in the Hutchinson, KS area where they picked up nearly 6 of rain in nearly 24 hrs. to 36 hrs. Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

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Full Rain Gauges Cont. Take a look at the rainfall from earlier Tuesday over parts of southwestern Missouri. Fort Leonard Wood picked up more than 8 YIKES!!

Soggy Start to August August has been very soggy to start in the Central Plains. Here are some of the other reporting stations

Getting Much Needed Rain Interestingly, there are still many spots in the central part of the country that are dealing with drought conditions even with all the heavy rainfall as of late. However, there are several spots that are doing VERY good when it comes to yearly precipitation Note Oklahoma City, OK sitting at nearly 20 above normal precipitation on the year! WOW!!

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Why So Stormy? Numerous showers and thunderstorms have been and will continue to develop on the outer periphery of the dome of hot air in the Southern Plains. Temps in the southern region are reaching triple digit heat with daytime heat index values nearing 110!

May 2009 (5) April 2009 (14) March 2009 (16) February 2009 (14) January 2009 (18) December 2008 (25) November 2008 (22) October 2008 (18) September 2008 (15) August 2008 (3) July 2008 (1) April 2008 (1) March 2008 (3) February 2008 (2) January 2008 (1) November 2007 (3) October 2007 (4)

More Rain on the Way Additional (potentially heavy) rainfall will continue through the rest of the week/weekend ahead. Some spots could see an additional 2 to 4+ on top of what theyve already seen, so no surprise that flooding concerns are still in place.

Flood Concerns Here are the flooding headlines that have been issued by the National Weather Service. Additional heavy rainfall may be possible in these areas over the coming days, which could lead to additional flash flooding.

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Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week ahead! Dont forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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Posted in: Education, General, Global Warming, Meteorology, Severe, Tropical, Weather

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Tuesday, Aug 06, 2013

Powerball Mania, Supermodels And Weather Risk In Perspective (Good News For Most Of Us)

Relative Risk

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The older I get the more grudging respect I have for Mother Nature. My old scouting motto Be Prepared comes to mind; there are always steps you can take to lower your odds of becoming a hapless weather statistic. But some perspective is in order. According to The National Safety Council the risk of dying from heart disease is 1 in 6. Stroke: 1 in 29. In stark contrast the odds of perishing in a heat wave is 1 in 13,217. Lightning? 1 in 134,906. My theory: weather-related deaths are often deemed newsworthy; they tend to pop up on the front page of newspapers and lead local TV news. So the perception of risk is a highly inflated version of reality. I still wont golf in a T-storm or drive thru a flooded street. Hey, I want to enjoy future grandkids! Speaking of weather risk, a few storms may turn severe later today with (isolated) hail & high winds across the Midwest. PS: Want to lower your weather risk? Have a few radar/alerting apps on your smart phone. And buy a NOAA Weather Radio. Cheap life insurance.

Lifetime Odds Of Death For Select Causes. The graphic above from The National Safety Council quickly puts weather risk into stark perspective, compared with all the other medical and socioeconomic threats. Excessive heat: 1 in 13, 217 Cataclysmic storm : 1 in 29,196 Lightning: 1 in 134, 906 Flood: 1 in 652,046

Perspective . According to an article at The Deseret News, the odds of dating a supermodel are 1 in 88,000. Those are your odds. My odds? Considerably less than that, as my wife of 29 years just reminded me.

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Tuesday Severe Threat. The combination of moderate instability, surface dew points in the mid-60s and an approaching trigger (a stronger-than-average cool frontal passage) may spark a late afternoon/evening squall line capable of hail and straight-line winds. SPC has the southern half of Minnesota in a slight risk expect a few watch boxes later today.

Time Warp. The maps still look like something out of the first or second week of September; the core of the jet stream 200-400 miles farther south than usual for early August. Yes, it should be cooling down (slightly), but sweatshirts, light jackets and a handful of record lows over the northern USAin August? Unusual. The next surge of Canadian air sparks a few severe storms over the Upper Midwest today, pushing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday, reaching New England and the Mid Atlantic region Thursday. The tropics are still quiet.

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Long Odds. Compared to various diseases, traffic accidents, etc the risk posed by extreme weather is relatively small. Unless, of course, youre at the wrong place at the wrong time or not paying attention. In todays edition of Climate Matters we celebrate the long odds of Powerball Mania, try to put statistics into perspective, and wonder (out loud) why men are a LOT more likely to be struck by lightning than women.

5-Day Rainfall. NOAA HPC shows the heaviest rain bands this week setting up from near Denver to Kansas City and Louisville, more heavy showers and storms from Pittsburgh to New York City (some 2+ amounts expected). These storms, and subsequent flash flooding, will develop along the boundary between relatively cool, Canadian air over the northern USA and baking heat over the Deep South.

Falling Prices Cloud Outlook For Minnesota Corn Farms. Prices have eased right along with the drought, as reported by The Star Tribune; heres an excerpt: Minnesota cropland values surged again the past year as farmers reeled in big paycheck s. This years crops are look ing decent, overcoming a sodden spring and late planting. The weather has been good. In fact, everything is so good it may be too good, or so goes the logic of farming economics. With big grain crops expected through much of the nation, the price of corn has dropped to levels not seen since 2010. That means farmers whove sunk more money into land and equipment during boom times thus increasing their costs are look ing at thinning margins this year if corn prices stay where they are Photo credit above: Cropland values surged 20 percent in Minnesota from last year after farmers posted their best year in decades . Photo: Brian Peterson, Star Tribune

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The 2013 Perseid Meteor Shower: An Observers Guide . Theres some very good information on one of the major celestial events of the year, peaking in the near future. With this flurry of September-like fronts, less haze and better visibility you stand a better chance of seeing a lucky shooting star or two, especially if you can get away from the light pollution of the Twin Cities. Universe Today has more details: Get set for the meteoritic grand finale of summer. Northern hemisphere summer that is. As we head into August, our gaze turns towards that Old Faithful of meteor showers, the Perseids. Though summer is mostly behind us now, meteor shower season is about to get underway in earnest. Pronounced Pur-SEE-ids, this shower falls around the second week of August, just before school goes back in for most folk s. This time of year also finds many the residents of the northern hemisphere out camping and away from light-polluted suburban sk ies. This year also offers a special treat, as the Moon will be safely out of the sk y during k ey observation times Image credit above: The radiant for the Perseids, look ing to the NE from latitude ~30N at around 2AM local. Created by the Author in Starry Night).

NASA Launches VERIS Rocket To Study Suns Explosive Behavior. Heres a clip from a story at Science World Report: On the sun, these large scale energy releases are driven by small scale physical processes, said Clarence Korendyk e, one of the researchers, in a news release. So we need to look at and understand the tiny details of those processes. VERISs flight will only last six minutes, but it will yield a bounty of information. It will gather a k ind of data k nown as spectra of this region of the sun at an extremely high resolution. Spectra will provide information on how much of any given wavelength of light is present. This, in turn, can allow researchers to see the different temperatures of plasma present on the sun. In addition VERIS will collect density and velocity information about the active region. This will allow scientists to determine which theory is correct when it comes to how the sun is heated Image credit above: Want to learn more about the sun? NASA certainly does. The space agency is planning on launching a sounding rock et, called VERIS, on August 8 in order to learn a bit more about our closest star. This image combines three images from NASAs Solar Dynamics Observatory captured on May 3, 2013, at 1:45 pm EDT, just as an M-class solar flare from the same region was subsiding. (Photo : NASA/SDO/AIA).

This Breathtaking Panorama Of Tokyo Is The Second Largest Photo In The World.Im feeling even more inadequate than usual with my (minimal) megapixels. Check out this excerpt from gizmag.com: Photography group

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360Cities seems determined to capture every major city in the world in as much detail as possible. Shortly after putting together a360-degree panorama of London and break ing the record for worlds largest photo in the process, the groups founder Jeffrey Martin set his sights on Tok yo for his next project. This latest panorama may not trump his old record, but at 180 gigapixels, its still the second largest photo ever tak en Photo credit above: Photographer Jeffrey Martin of 360Cities recently unveiled a 360-degree panorama of Tok yo measuring 180 gigapixels, mak ing it the second largest photo in the world. Climate Stories

Climate Change Pushing Marine Life Towards The Poles, Says Study. The Guardian has the story here is the introduction: Rising ocean temperatures are rearranging the biological mak e-up of our oceans, pushing species towards the poles by 7k ms every year, as they chase the climates they can survive in, according to new research. The study, conducted by a work ing group of scientists from 17 different institutions, gathered data from seven different countries and found the warming oceans are causing marine species to alter their breeding, feeding and migration patterns. Surprisingly, land species are shifting at a rate of less than 1k m a year in comparison, even though land surface temperatures are rising at a much faster rate than those in the ocean (Image: National Science Foundation).

Electric Car Sales Up 520% Over 2012. Gas2.org has the details: The numbers are in for mass-mark et 100% electric vehicle (EV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), andconventional hybrid electric vehicle sales. Well, the numbers are in from everyone but Tesla and Fiat. (The Tesla Model S total in the colorful spreadsheet below is an estimate based on quarterly sales updates, since the rock star EV company doesnt report monthly sales.) As you can see in the embedded spreadsheet, I use green highlighting to show when year-over-year change is positive and I use red highlighting to show when it is negative. Paying attention to that very complicated system, you can see that everything is green in the sales totals for 100% EVs, PHEVs, and conventional hybrids for both July 2013 and YTD 2013...

Hybrid Planes Trying To Charge Into Action. No-guilt flying, all on electrical power, no greenhouse gases emitted? It may become a reality sooner than you suspect, according to The BBC. Heres an excerpt: How would you feel about flying on an electric airliner? Current planes may be noisy, rattly, and relatively inefficient, but theres something reassuring about being able to hear the constant roar of the engines, or glance out of the window and see them. So the airliner of the future may feel very alien to anyone comfortable with our current mode of flying at least if an ambitious model called the eConcept is anything to go by. Designed by European aviation powerhouse, EADS (which announced it will be renamed Airbus Group next year), together with Rolls Royce, the eConcept shows how cutting-edge technology and materials could combine to mak e more efficient and quiet aircraft that tak e their cues from the hybrid-car model Image credit above: Silent revolution. Ambitious ideas on the table for hybrid-lik e planes could mean the airliner of the future may look , feel and sound very different to todays models . (Copyright: EADS)

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Future Of Solar Power: How About Transparent Solar Cells That Can Be Put On Windows? Sounds like a great idea to me. Heres a clip from a story at The Economic Times: The other break throughs are a transparent solar cell from the University of California in Los Angeles, a simple solar cell from Germany that can split water and produce hydrogen, and a photovoltaic-thermal system from Canada. Transparent solar cells are an exciting development as they can be put on windows, gadgets and in other places to generate electricity on the sly. Producing hydrogen from water using sunlight is a dream of the solar energy world, as it lets us store the energy in the form of hydrogen gas or in a fuel cell that can be used at night or on cloudy days. Combining photovoltaics with thermal uses both light and heat from the sun. There is a long way from a technology demonstrator in the lab to a commercially successful device. In the field of solar energy, this is important, as the cost of commercialisation can at times be very high... Photo credit above: Scientists use a plasmonic solar cell that uses the bizarre laws of quantum mechanics to achieve high efficiency at low cost.

Global Warming Denial Is Science-Proof. Slate has the story heres the introduction: Every time I see an opinion piece written by a global warming denier I think to myself, Well, thisll be painful, but at least it cant get any worse than the ones Ive already read. And then I read it. And I find out I was wrong. So here I am again, shak ing my head after reading yet another in a long line of global-warming denial articles mak ing bizarre claims. This one was written by Rich Trzupek and is entitled Michael Mann Redefines Science. The title alone told me I was in troubleMann is actually a respected climate scientist(except in the antireality-o-sphere, that is)and then I saw where this gem was posted: on the Heartland Institutes blog. You remember the Heartland Institute, right? Theyre the ones who put up billboards comparing climate scientists to mass murderers and dictators, which caused such a foofooraw that they hemorrhaged sponsors. They had to tak e the billboards down, but then declared the campaign a success

The False Promise Of Fracking. Im keeping an open mind, realizing that were going to need a lower-carbon fuel source to get us from coal and oil to renewables. Its been well documented that natural gas releases roughly half as much CO2 into the atmosphere as coal assuming methane leakage around the wells are kept to a minimum, a potentially huge assumption. We have a pretty good handle on the (considerable) benefits, Im just not sure we have a handle on all the costs related to hydraulic fracture. Im just glad theres no shale oil under Minnesota - Triple Pundit has the story; heres an excerpt: Heinberg says his research shows that rather than offering the nation a century of cheap energy and economic prosperity, frack ing may well present us with a short-term bubble that comes with exceedingly high economic and environmental costs. Heinberg continues, Horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing (frack ing) for oil and gas pose a danger not just to local water and air quality, but also to sound energy policy, and therefore to our collective ability to avert the greatest human-made economic and environmental catastrophe in history. In his analysis of shale production to date, Heinberg says: Industry claims of a long-term economic bonanza and energy security as a result of domestic drilling for shale gas and shale (tight) oil. The perception that shale gas and tight oil drilling will provide long-term, low cost supplies. The oil industry has overstated world oil reserves by about a third and is work ing harder and harder just to stand still...

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It Never Rains But It Pours. Heres an excerpt of a story at The Hindu Business Line in India: Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur on a global scale. It is very lik ely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas. Based on certain emissions scenarios, a one-in-twenty-years hottest day is lik ely to become a one-in-two-years event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is lik ely to become a one-in-five-years event. Further, it is lik ely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe
________________________________________________________________ ABOUT ME

Paul Douglas Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. Ill link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. Im still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. Ive started 5 weather-related companies. EarthWatch created the worlds first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations Steven Spielberg used our software in Jurassic Park and Twister. My last company, Digital Cyclone, personalized weather for cell phones. My-Cast was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.com/weather And if youre on Twitter, youll find me @pdouglasweather
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