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(Technological Civilization)
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(02)2705-5066
(Hirsch,
2005)
(Duncan &
Youngquist, 1998) 2030
(population crash)
1712
(T. Newcomen)
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(02)2705-5066
5.5
(Fire engine)
(Crosby, A.W., 2002)
( 1.1)
1700
1815
(Thurston, 1972)
(Industrial Revolution)
( 1975)
(Energy Age)
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(02)2705-5066
(William Blake)
1.1 1790
1.11790
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(02)2705-5066
(Bronowski, J. 1967)
(Phoenician)
(Garrison, T., 2002) (Crosby, A. W.,
2008)
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(02)2705-5066
(Unknown
Age)
1901
Spindletop
Spindletop
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(02)2705-5066
(Accelerated Age)
(Age of oil and internal combustion engine)(
1975)
(Depletion Age)
1.2
(Hubbert, M. K., 1976)
1.2
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(02)2705-5066
1.2 I
1.2 II 1.2
1.2 III
2010 2020
1500
1600
0
1700
1800
I
1900
2100 ()
2000
II
III
1.2 0 I II III
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(02)2705-5066
(Energy depletion)
2011 (BP)
2012 2050
Chefurka, P. (2011)
(Depletion rate)
2006 2025
(Energy Watch Group,
2011) 1.4 1965 2050
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
()
1.3 1965-2050
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(02)2705-5066
e = E( ) / P(
) (United Nations Population Information Network)
1.3 2020
1.4 2010
1.3 2006
1.4 1.3
2010
2010
(Alternative energy)
(Non-renewable energy source)
10
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(02)2705-5066
1.5
0.5
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060 ()
1.4 1965-2050
2011
(British Petroleum, 2013)
(Millions tonne of oil equivalent, M.T.O.E)
3,724.3 M.T.O.E 2,905.6 M.T.O.E 4,059.1
M.T.O.E 599.3 M.T.O.E 791.5 M.T.O.E
2011
55 2
11
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1.6%
6.4%
4.9%
33.1%
30.3%
23.7%
1.52011 ( )
1.6
12
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(02)2705-5066
AS AS
AD1 AD2
AD2 AD3
AD3
AD3
(Stagflation)
2008
13
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(02)2705-5066
(AS)
P3
(AD3)
P2
(AD2)
P1
(AD1)
Q1 Q2 Q3
1.6
(Energy war)
2/3
90
14
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(02)2705-5066
(Georgia) 2008 8 7
2009 7
16 61
15
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(02)2705-5066
3.8
70 2050 90
(United Nations Population Information Network)
Meadows, D. H.,
Meadows, D. L. & Randers, J. 1992 Beyond the Limits
1.7
(Population crash)
1.7
16
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2008 4 5
53
20
(Greenhouse
gas) (Climate extremes)
(Global warming)
17
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(02)2705-5066
(Climate change)
(Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, IPCC) 130 2,000
(IPCC,
2013)
18
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(02)2705-5066
19
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(02)2705-5066
( Po p u l at i o n c ra s h ) 2 ,
15-16, 20, 25, 131-137, 184, 195
(Population Doubling
time, D)127
(Population explosion)15,
131
(Population expansion)91,
126, 128, 134, 138
(Seven seals)23
(Seven trumpets)23-24
(Seven bowls)23-24
(21st Century
Disaster)143, 148
(Fire energy)3
(Clash of civilizations)100,
123
(Hydropower)191
(Biomass)10, 67, 174, 191,
192
(Phenology)169
(Atmospheric engine)3
(Industrial Revolution)3, 5,
6, 26, 29, 31, 33-35, 39, 45, 152
(OPEC)62-63,
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ination)74-75
( Wo r l d o i l
transit chokepoints)118
(Chernobyl)44, 68
( Wo r l d
Energy Production Per Capita)
9-11, 65-67, 102
(GPS)177
(Non-renewable energy
source) 10, 24, 45, 47-52, 54,
63-64, 114, 174, 188
(BRICS)44
(Financial tsunami)13, 83,
87-88, 91, 93, 102, 113
(Technological Civilization)
1, 2, 5-7, 17, 19, 29, 35, 39,
197
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(Armageddon)20-23
(Intergov-
e r n m e nta l Pa n e l o n C l i m ate
181-182
(Exponential growth)
128, 133, 137, 182
(Depletion rate)9, 65
(Climate change)2,
193-195
(Gaussian distribution)49
(Energy Revolution)33
(Energy Age)3, 29
(Energy Watch Group)
9, 27, 65, 69
(Energy depletion) 1, 7,
(Fiscal policy)75-77, 90
(Monetary policy)75-77,
85-88, 90, 92
(Dierential change)169
(Nuclear ssion)42, 68
184
(Consumer Price
Index, CPI)72
198
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(02)2705-5066
( O zo n o s p h e r e O 3 ) 1 5 0 ,
153-154
(Copenhagen Accord)
150, 173-174
(Second Stage
Industrial Revolution)
(Stagflation) 13,
(Misery index)72, 75
(International security)
1, 97-98, 105, 110, 114, 119, 122
(normal distribution)
49
(Greenhouse effect)149,
156-157
(Olduvai theory)46,
186
(Phillips curve)73
(International conflict)98,
100, 116, 121, 143
(Montreal protocol)150
(Collapse threshold)185
(Kerosene lantern)36
(Alternative energy)10-11,
190-192
Revolution)
(Ideological war)99
199
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(Capitalism)33
(Resource war) 22, 102,
(Contraction threshold)
185
104, 122
(Reservoir)51
171
(Unknown Age)6-8, 29
(Triggering event)159
(Demand- pull
(Tar sand)67
ination)73-74
(Organization of Rice
Exporting Countries, OREC)140
(Fuel cells)68
(Facebook)40
(Aggregate supply curve)
13-14, 73-74, 78
(Environmental refugees)
137, 161
200
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(02)2705-5066
.
., 2013.07
.
ISBN 978-957-11-7162-3 ()
1.2.3.4.
400.15
102011136
5A92
1063394
(02)2705-5066(02)2706-6100
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