MSA tsB424

Faculty of Engineering Maintenance Planning & Control

Final Term -Spring 2009 Time: 3 Hours
Answer all of the following questions:
Ouestion I (Total Mark: 5)
A maintenancejob has been studied for 40 observations.The actual mean time is 7.3
minutes and the standarddeviation of the time is estimatedto be 2.5 minutes. How many
additional observationsshould be taken for 98.8% confidence that the actual mean time
hasbeendetermined withtn l2yo.

Ouestion2 (Total Mark 5)

(a) What arethe two main typesof preventivemaintenance?
(b) what are the two types of condition-basedpreventive maintenance?
(c) What are the two types of statistically and reliability-basedpreventive maintenance?
(d) Discussin your own words the relationship betweenthe three maintenancefunctions
of load forecasting,capacity planning and scheduling.
(e) what is maintenanceload composedof? Is it certain or uncertain?
(f) Define "preventive maintenance"in your own words.

Question 3 (Total Mark: g)

Consider
thefollowingyearlydatafor maintenance
loadin labor-hours
for theiast6 vears.

Year I 2 a
6
J 4 5
Maintenance Load 700 900 8s0 l 100 I 150 I 300

(a) Find the maintenance load forecast for years 7, 8 and 9 using the three-period
moving averageand the linear regressionmodel.
(b) Determine which method is more accurateusing the mean square error (MSE)
basedon the years4,5 and 6.

ouestion 4 (Totar Mark: g)

Assume we have four time periods with maintenanceloads 300, 150,200 and 250
respectively.The in-houseregularcapacityis 120, 250,200 and 150 for periods 1,2,3
and 4 respectively.The overtime is at most2}Yo of the in-house capacity. Subcontracting
has no limit. The cost of performing one in-house man-hour ii taken to be I unit,
overtime per man-hour costs 60% more than regular time (i.e. 1.6 units) and
subcontractingcosts2.2 wits. Backlogging of one man-hour costs n : 0.2 per period.
(a) Use the least cost heuristic metlod to allocate the maintenance load in the four
time periods to the available types of resources.
(b) Evaluatethe total cost of the plan developedin part (a).

Pagelof 2
Ouestion 5 (Total Mark: 7)
An analysthas observeda maintenancejob long enoughto becomefamiliar with it and has
divided it into five elements.The elementtimes (in minutes)for the first 5 cyclesare shown in
the following table,along with the performancerating for eachelement.

Element Cycle Performance

Number Rating (%)

1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 r.4 80

1 a
2.5 2.0 z.) 2.4 z.J 110
1.8 2 .0 3.0 1.8 1.9 9s
1.3 1.1 1.4 r.2 1.2 90
t.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 100

(a) Computean estimatedbasictime for thejob on the basisof the availabledata.

(b) On basisof the mean and standarddeviationof the availableobserveddata of the
job as a whole (not broken down to elements),how many additionalcycles should
be observedfor 96.6ohconfidencethat the actualmean time has been determined
within 5%.

Question6 (Total Mark: 7)

Considerthe following quarterlydata for the maintenanceload in labor-hoursfor the last 5 years.

Quarter
Year II m
215 190 170 250
230 220 185 270
2s0 225 2t0 28s
255 245 230 295
280 260 240 320

(a) Determine an appropriateseasonalindex for each quarter.

(b) Deseasonalize the dataand fit them to a linear regressionmodel.
(c) Predict the quarter values for 6 and 7 years.

Good Luck!

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STANDIRD STATISTICAL TABLES

1. Areaq, under the Norroal Distribution

Ibe talle gives tb mlative pmbability

up to tie stailhdis€d lonrl valuez
i"e. I P l l < ? l
Ilrrp(+s:) dl
P[z<z]=J/2r

0.00 0.03 0.01 nffi

0.0 0.5000 0.50{0 0,5080 0.5120 0.5159 0.5199 0.5239 A.5219 0,5319 0.5359
0.1 0,5398 0.5{38 0.5178 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5635 0,5675 0.571t 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0,58?1 0.5910 0.59{8 0.598? 0.5025 0,6061 0.6103 0.51.{1
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6291 0.6331 0.5358 0.6106 0.6{{3 0.6{S0 0.651?
0.{ 0.6551 0.6591 0.5528 0,6561 0.6700 0i6736 0.67?2 0.5808 0;68d4 0.58?9

0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.705t 0.7088 0.7123 0.715? 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0,7257 0.7291 0.732{ 0,7357 0.n$ 0,71n 0,7{5{ 0.7486 0.?517 0.7519
0,7 017580 0.7611 0.'16t2 0.?573 0.7701 O"nU ,0.??61 0.?791 0.?823 0.?854
0;8 0.7841 ,0;7t10 0.7939 A,79670.7995 0180?30.8051 0,8078 0.8105 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.81s6 0.8212 0.8238 0.E26{ 0.8289 0;8315 0.8310 0.8355 0.8389

t,0 0.8113 0.s{38 0.8151 0.8{85 0.S50S0.S531 0.855{ 0.S5?7 0.S599 A.S62L
l.l 0,86{3 0.8665 0.8685 q.S70S0,8729 0,87{9 0.8770 0.8?90 O'.sS0t0.ss30
1.2 0.8819 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.3925 0189110.8962 0.89S0 0.899? 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.90{9 0.S66 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0,9131 0.91{? 0.e162 0.917?
l.{ 0.9192 0.9207 0.92n 0.9236 0.981 0.9265 0,9279 0,9292 0.9306 0.9319

1.5 0.9332 0.93{5 0.9357 0.93?0 0.9382 0;9391 0.9{06 0.9{18 0.9129 0.9{t1
1.5 0.e{52 0.9{63 0.9{7{ 0.9{8t 0.9t95 0.9505 0.9515 0,9525 0.9535 0.95{5
l.? 0.95st 0.956t 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9511 0.96{9 0.9656 0.966{ 0.9671 0.95?8 0.9685 0.9693 0.9699 0.9?06
1.9 0.9713 0.9n9 0.9726 0.n32 0.9?38 0.97{{ 0.9750 0.9?55 0.9761 0.9'16't

2.0 0.97n 0.9778 0.983 0.9788 019793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.98t7
2-t 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.983{ 0,9838 0r98t2 0.9816 0.9850 0.985{ 0.9857
z;r--0-it6t-0.988--T3Ffl 0,9E7r 0,98?t 0.9878 0.9881 0.98E1 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9995 0.9898 0.9901 0,990{ 0;9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.1 0.9918 0.9920 0.99n 0.9924 0.992? 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.993t 0.9936

2..5 0.9938 9.9910 0.9941 0.99{3 0.99{5 0i9916 0.9918 0.9919 0.9951 0.9952
2:6 0.9953 0.9t55 0.9955 0.9957 0.9959 0.9950 0.9961 0.9962 9:9953 0.996{
2,7 0,9965 0.9965 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.99?0 o.gyn 0,9972 0.9973 0;997{
2.8 0.997{ 0.99?5 0.e9?6 0.9977 0.9977 0.99?8 0.99?9 0.e980 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9e81 0,9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.998{ 0.99St 0.9985 0,9985 0.9986 0.9985

r 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.{0 3.50 3.50 3.?0 3.80 3.90
P 0.9986 0.9990 0.9993 0.9995 0.999? 0.9998 0.9998 0:9999 0.9999 1.0000

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