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5 Hybrid Prediction
Empirical Greens function
A method of summing up recordings of small earthquakes, which are considered as
Greens functions, in an attempt to simulate the ground motion from larger events (e.g.,
Hartzell, 1978, 1982; Wu, 1978).
6 Description of Fourier Amplitude Spectrum
Hanks (1982)
Anderson and Hough (1984)
Tsai and Chen (2000)
7 Uncertainty
How the uncertainty can be accurately obtained and adequately be narrowed down is an
important issue in ground motion prediction. Source, site, and path effects all contribute to
the uncertainties of ground motions.
Epistemic Uncertainty vs. Aleatory Uncertainty
Toro et al., (1997) suggested that there are two types of uncertainty in ground motion
prediction (also SSHAC, 1997): epistemic and aleatory. Epistemic uncertainty is that
attributable to incomplete knowledge and data about the physics of the earthquake
phenomenon, whereas aleatory uncertainty is that inherent in the unpredictable nature of
future earthquake events. In principle, the former can be reduced by the accumulation of
additional information; the latter cannot, however, be reduced by the accumulation of more
data or additional information.
Decompose of Uncertainty
variance components technique (Tsai and Chen, 2001; Chen and Tsai, 2001)
8 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is widely regarded as the most general way to
combine and present the large quantities and diverse types of information involved in the
strong ground motions.
Conventional PSHA
Cornell (1968)
PSHA Considering Nonlinear Site Effect
Wen et al. (1994)
Beresnev and Wen (1996)
Tsai (2000)
9 Reference
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Boore, D. M. Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on
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(1983).
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Campbell, K.W. Near-source attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration, Bull. Seism. Soc.
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Chen, Y. H. and C.-C. P. Tsai A new method for estimation of the attenuation relationship
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Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 71, p.2071-2095, (1981).
Hanks, T. C. f
max
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Hartzell, S. H. Simulation of ground accelerations for the May 1980 Mammoth Lakes,
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Cornell, and P. A. Morris, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, NUREG/CR-6372,
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Spudich, P. and U. Ascher Calculation of complete theoretical seismograms in vertically
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