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Tnnovator A Financial Expert System

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James V. Nutley
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INNOVATOR A FINANCIAL EXPERT SYSTEM by James V. Nutley

A Report Submitted inPartial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Masters of Science (Management Information Systems) in The University of Arizona February 1990

Master committee: Professor Sudha Ram, Chairman Professor Doug Vogel

0423 074

ABSTRACT INNOVATOR A FINANCIAL EXPERT SYSTEM

by

James V. Nutley Chairman: Professor Sudha Ram

The

INNOVATOR

expert

system

was designed to assist in It is

the evaluation of new Financial Service Product ideas. written 4381. under in the Expert System Environment

(ESE) on an IBM

During the course of the direction this DB2 of

this project

I rewrote INNOVATOR INNOVATOR was of the a new first

Professor Sudha Ram. to take

modified during interface to

project and

advantage from

lessons

learned

implementation.

Acoession For NTIS GRA&I

DTIC TAB Unannounced Justification By El

Distribution/
Availability Codes

Avail and/or
Dist Special

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Professor Sudha Ram for her

guidance and direction.

And support.

my

lovely

wife,

Dorothy

for

moral

and physical

ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..................... . .. ... .. LIST OF TABLES........................v LIST OF FIGURES........................v I. INSTRUCTION........................1 II. Previous Research.....................4 III. User's Guide.......................9 3.1 Names and Titles...................9 3.2 Profiles.......................10 3.3 Using the Program.................12 IV. Technical Manual....................13 4.1 FCB's.......................13 4.2 Rules, and Parameters................17 4.3 Naming Convention.................18 V. CONCLUSION........................21 BIBLIOGRAPHY........................23 APPENDIX A APPENDIX B
-

.. . . ...

Rules and Parameters..............24 Innovator Program Listing. ........... 25

LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1.0 - Major Product Lines ...... ............ .......... ...........
....

5 5 6 7 8 8

TABLE 1.1 - Mutual Fund Product Types ..... TABLE 1.2 - Mutual Fund Brand Names ......
TABLE 1.3 - Product Line Evaluation Attributes

TABLE 1.4 - Product Evaluation Attributes .... TABLE 1.5 - Product Brand Evaluation Attributes .. LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.0 - Text Entry Screen ......

........ .....

.............

10 12 15 16

........... . FIGURE 1.1 - Multiple Choice Screen ... ................ FIGURE 1.2 - FCB Heirarchy ...... FIGURE 1.3 - FCB Heirarchy 2 ..... ...............

iv

I. INSTRUCTION Overview of the area of Expert Systems

Artificial Intelligence

(A)

is the discipline which

tries to build machines that can be considered intelligent. Definitions of the word "intelligent" have proved slippery, still, some of the products of man's effort to duplicate himself in silicon have is the Expert System. Expert Systems are a departure from the historical direction of AI. Previous systems have attempted to implement born useful fruit. One such product

generalized problem solving programs on wide varieties of problems, expert Systems select a specific domain in which they will function, defined by the Knowledge Base of the system. Knowledge Bases are translations of domain

specific knowledge which a human expert would apply to a problem in his/her field of expertise. While a procedural

computer program will process the data given it and deliver some output state, an expert System searches for a to a problem. solution

The goal of a successful expert system is not

to replace human experts in their field, but rather to handle problems that are ill-structured, and combine quantitative and judgmental data, which would ordinarily require the domain specific expertise of a human being, but are well enough understood to translate to machine processable form.

Once translated, the Knowledge Base can be accessed to solve these problems while leaving the expert time to focus on less well understood problems, or it can assist in the training of new experts, or it can make the knowledge of a single expert available to a larger audience than a single human being might otherwise assist. The screening of potential new financial service products is a problem domain which fits the criteria for using Expert System technology. "...
-

the decision making process is not necessarily

well structured, it uses variables that are both categorical and continuous, and relationships between the variables that are both numerical and logical."' Their is also a clear need for this type of a system. the process of introducing new products is very unstructured and hence very risky. products are substantial. Failure rates of new

Past figures on new product

launches reveal that 33 to 60% of new products are commercially unsuccessful. This is a disturbingly high

failure rate considering the amount of organizational resources, such as dollar investment and R & D talent,

I Sudha Ram and Sundaresan Ram, "INNOVATOR: AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH DECISIONS," Applied Artificial Intelligence, 2:129-148, 1988.

channeled into new product development.

Some

organizations consistently outperform others in the new product area, thanks to their group of new product experts. An expert system that could faithfully

reproduce the judgement of these experts could save organizations tremendous amounts of resources and simultaneously innovations. "2 It was with these factors in mind that Professors Sudha and Sundaresan Ram began the coding of the INNOVATOR Expert System. INNOVATOR's knowledge base was culled from five improve the success rate of their

acknowledged experts in the field, and a wide ranging literature search. A version of the program was implemented

by Mr. Jaafar Husain and a description of the system and its Knowledge Base has been published in the journal Applied Artificial Intelligence, #2 1988. The INNOVATOR implementation was performed in the ESE (Expert Systems Environment) Shell, an IBM product. ESE is ESE

designed to run on IBM mainframes (a 4381 in this case). allows developers to enter rules directly in an IF.. .Then format. It also allowed external routines to store and

retrieve the Attribute states of the product being considered, although this was in a flat file format. The

implementation worked, but the professors Ram believed that

Ibid. 3

it could be improved.

The following features were planned

for a follow up version of INNOVATOR: connectivity to a true relational database for management of information ending reliance on routines which were constructed in third generation languages

These goals became achievable when IBM released an upgrade of ESE, including the Access command for FCB control text (see

section 4.1.1) which allows direct access to SQL/DS and DB2. The Purpose and Objective of this project was to build a new version of INNOVATOR, taking advantage of the direct database access I was expected to deliver a working, expandable ESE application which implemented the Knowledge Base of the INNOVATOR application without resort to external third generation language calls and with suitable modifications; supervised by Professor Sudha Ram,-'to take advantage of lessons learned in implementing the first INNOVATOR and implement good database design.
--

,
' "

,
/

J -.

II. Previous Research Knowledge elicited for INNOVATOR came from Financial Services Experts. Two of the experts chosen worked in

national firms specializing in financial investments, one was from a small independent financial advisory firm, one worked in the investment division of a savings and loan association, and one worked for a commercial bank. The literature search

that followed covered Investment surveys, and financial magazines such as Money, Forbes, and the Wall Street Journal. The Knowledge Base of Innovator can be represented for discussion as sets of text tables, which have a hierarchical relationship to each other. product lines. TABLE 1.0 Major Product Lines
- Annuities - Bonds - Insurance

The root table is the list of

- Mutual Funds
Options

- Precious Metals
- Stocks

- Real Estate Partnerships These represent the broad categories in to which INNOVATOR divides the domain of Financial Service Products. If we follow the Mutual Funds path, we come to the recognized types of Mutual Funds.

TABLE 1.1 Mutual Fund Product Types Balanced Funds Bond Funds Convertible Funds Growth Funds Growth and Income Funds Income Funds International Funds Money Market Funds Sector/Specialty Funds

Then established brand names of mutual fund products are identified. TABLE 1.2 Mutual Fund Brand Names
- AARP - American - Kemper - MFS

- Bull-Bear - Calvert - Century

Dean Witter Delaware Dreyfus Eaton Vance

- Merrill Lynch - New England - Oppenheimer

Putnam Shearson Templeton USAA

- Fidelity
- Financial - IDS

- Value Line
- Vanguard

After the types of Financial Services had been identified, tables of key attributes were developed for evaluating the viability of Product Line, Product, or Brand.

TABLE 1.3 Product Line Evaluation Attributes Attribute Classes Market Financial Competition Product Corporate

Estimated

Volume of

Distinctive-

Compatibility Number of

Market Size

Business

ness
Consumer Appeal

with existing Competitors products

Financial Outlay Quality of Competitors Rate Vulnerability of Competitors

Estimated Gross Growth Margin

Estimated Susceptibility

Return on Investment

Ease of Imitation

Organizational Structure

Season-

Payback

Contribution

Personnel Skills

ality of demand

Period

to Company Image

in Marketing
Personnel Skills

in Technical
Product Development

TABLE 1.4 Product Evaluation Attributes Attribute Classes Performance Rating

Past Year Past 5 Years Past 10 Years Future (estimate)

Risk

TABLE 1.5 Product Brand Evaluation Attributes Attribute Classes Company Company Earning Past Quality of

Standing
Age

Size
Number of

Potential
Comission

Performance
Grocth Rate

Service
Facility for

Funds
Offered

Rate

of Assets

Switching
Between Funds

Reputation Range of
Funds

Mininu
Investment

Average
Return

Service
Represent-

Offered

Amount

Ccapared ative' s to Industry AvailAverage ability

Nwaber of its Relationship Funds in the Industry

Management Turnover

Total Assets

with

Brokers/Agents
Top 20

With the Knowledge Acquisition complete, it only remains to translate this knowledge into ESE objects and debug. I had

this information and the previous ESE application, as well as guidance from Prof. Sudha Ram. implementation. I was ready to begin

III. User's Guide My Goal was to implement the INNOVATOR ESE application, and to do so in such a way that it accessed SQL/DS. This

chapter is designed to assist a user in using the application.

3.1 Names and Titles The first thing the user will see is the welcome screen. After that, a user is asked questions. Just like a human

expert, INNOVATOR must elicit data from the end-user in order to determine the degree to which the product being considered measures up. At first though, the user will have to answer Data is gathered about

questions about himself or herself.

the individual users primarily for product improvement at a later time, although usage monitoring could also be accomplished. An entry for each complete session is made,

storing who used the system, what company they work for, when the consultation took place, and what the final evaluation is. The plan is for INNOVATOR's record of usage to guide

future developers in evaluating who uses INNOVATOR, and in indicating who to elicit additional Knowledge or user interface improvement suggestions from. Security is not

supported by ESE, however the mainframe environment has ample password protections available. It is important, in the current implementation, that great care be exercised while entering the company name, and that the name be entered in exactly the same manner for every session. INNOVATOR will search for existing "Profiles" using

the company name, and a name which was spelled correctly but had capital letters the other lacked would be treated as an entirely different word. FIGURE 1.0 III I I III N N NN N N NN N N N N NN N N NN N N 0000 0 0 0 0 0000 V V V V V V V AA A A AAAA A A TTT T T T 0000 0 0 0 0 0000 RRRR R R RRR R R

Please enter your company name

(30 characters or less)

PF1 Help PF2 Review PF4 What

PF7 Up PF8 Down

PF10 How

PF11 Why

Once the User has entered this information, He will be asked weather or not an existing profile should be used.

3.2 Profiles INNOVATOR contains Knowledge about what attributes of a new product are important, it also knows that some things, such as Seasonality of Demand, are best when they are low, while others,

10

such as Product Distinctiveness, are best when they are high. However, INNOVATOR as an Expert System, has no way to tell what the financial status of the End-Users company is at the time of a consultation, and no means to determine the financial resources that a company might or might not be willing to devote to a new product, unless the end-user tells it. This is done by entering a "Profile". A Profile is a collection of attributes with numeric values. These attributes represent the judgement of the end-user, or his company on what is acceptable for a new product for their specific company. Storing their own preferences in this fashion is a

powerful feature, as it allows the company to establish their own levels at which they would commit funds to a new product. Multiple profiles can be stored for a single company to allow a variety of views to be applied to any product. The user is asked if he/she would like to use an existing profile from his/her company, or if he/she would like to enter a new one. Depending on the type of product, INNOVATOR will prompt Profile

the user for a value for each necessary attribute.

attributes are usually expressed in millions of dollars, or as a percentage of some Financial concept, such as the possible market for the product. Once the user has chosen or entered a profile, the product in question has a standard to be compared to and the consultation can begin.

11

3.3 Using the Program FIGURE 1.1 III I I III N N NN N N NN N N N N NN N N NN N N 0000 0 0 0 0 0000 V V V V V V V AA A A AAAA A A TTT T T T 0000 0 0 0 0 0000 RRRR R R RRR R R

What do you wish to evaluate?

Product Line Product

Brand PF1 Help PF2 Review PF4 What PF7 Up PF8 Down PF10 How PF11 Why

From this point on, the user will be asked questions in a multiple choice fashion, until INNOVATOR is ready to deliver an evaluation. There are two distinct segments to this portion of the consultation. First, INNOVATOR has the end-user establish a priority for each Attribute Class in the product he/she is considering. Although the user can specify that each attribute class is equally important, INNOVATOR arranges the rest of the consultation

according to differences in the priorities, highest to lowest, and will simply choose a default order if the user considers all Attribute Classes of equal importance. Next, the attributes of each class are considered in turn. The user must choose the appropriate value for each attribute according to the product being evaluated at the time. Once these

12

attributes are established, INNOVATOR will compare profile and product values, as well as evaluating the product against the established attributes in it's Knowledge Base, and deliver an evaluation to the screen (as well as the results log).

IV. Technical Manual ESE is an established product from IBM. An ESE application

is composed of five structures; Parameters, Rules, Groups, Screens, and Focus Control Blocks (FCBs). Although this chapter

cannot be considered a substitute for the ESE Reference Manual, it contains descriptions of each of the ESE structures, and examples of how they were used in INNOVATOR.

4.1 FCB's Expert systems use inference engines to perform their functions, but these engines do not process their rules sequentially. Non-sequential processing can have advantages for

some problems, but not every problem can be solved without resort to some sequential processing. In order to address the

possibility of dual approaches, ESE controls its applications through FCBs. An FCB can be thought of as a short script which The script of what will be Control Texts

the ESE application will perform.

performed by an FDB is called it's Control Text.

13

are written in Expert System Development Environment Control Language, which is composed of eight commands: ACCESS ACQUIRE ASK interface with SQL/DS and DB2 Obtain parameter values form an external data source Ask End-User for data to obtain parameter values

DETERMINE Invokes Backward Chaining Inference Engine to find a specific parameter value DISCOVER Invoke Forward Chaining Inference Engine to use a set of rules to find parameter values DISPLAY Displays parameters and their values to end users

ESTABLISH Initiate processing of another FCB PROCESS Pass control to external data routines

When an application contains more than one FCB, then the FCBs are arranged in a hierarchy beginning with a root FCB. In It IF the

INNOVATOR, OVERMODULE is the root FCB for the application. establishes WHICH in which the type of product is chosen.

product is a mutual fund, then either a Product, Product Line or Brand Name is chosen and pursued. hierarchy to that point. The figure below shows the

14

FIGURE 1.2 Overmodule Which

MF Lroduct Line

MFjroduct

MFBraniName

After the Type of Mutual Fund is established, INNOVATOR asks the user weather they want to use one of the existing profiles or create a new one. Separate FCBs, NEWPROFILE and USEOLD handle

creation and retrieval of profiles. These FCBs contain the commands which read from and write to the database table PROFILEMFEVAL, where mutual fund profiles are kept. Once the

profile to be used is loaded, five FCBs, named by format PL_<XX>_Figure, establish the users priority for the Attribute Then the FCBs named by format

Classes to be used.

PLF_<attribute>_EVAL control the evaluation, one attribute class at a time, of (in this case) the product line being considered.

After they have finished control passes back up to WHICH, where the final results are displayed and saved in the Database Table RESULTLOG.

15

FIGURE 1.3 MFProduct Line NewProfile

UseOld

PlVH Figure

PlHFigure

PMo

-Figure

P1_L_Figure

P1_VL_Figure

PLF_MarketEval

PLFFinanceEval

PLF_ProductEval

PLFCompetitorsEval

PLFCorporate_Eval

This number of FCBs is larger than the minimum necessary to do this type of job, but I proceeded on the principle of structured programing that code should be modular in construction. The *-Figure modules are usable throughout the application with small modifications for priority setting, while the *_Eval modules

16

must be customized for each attribute class, but can be copied and modified from one branch to another. FCBs have a number of properties that can be individually altered for specific effects. properties. See Appendix A for a list of those

4.2 Rules, and Parameters The heart of a heuristic Knowledge Base are the facts (Parameters) that it consists of and the Rules that relate one fact to another. Like FCBs, both Parameters and Rules in ESE have

properties that can be altered, see Appendix A. Parameters are normally either character strings or numbers. Parameters may be assigned by the user during the session, or they may assume a value defaulted to them, or they may be assigned a value through the actions of an inference engine processing rules. Rules are expressions of relationships between parameters. They are represented by statements which must follow the format below: (<> indicate that the contents are required and may be any

string of the appropriate format, within is optional) IF <premisestatement

[] indicate that the string

[and/or premisestatement[and/or ... ]>

THEN <actionstatement [and actionstatement[and ...I >

Where the IF and THEN, one premise statement and one action statement are the minimum requirement for a rule. As many

17

additional Premise and Action statements can be assigned to the rule as one wishes, action statements will always be used, hence only AND may be used on them. either with ANDs, or ORs. Premise statements may be linked

OR allows the rule to apply to

different premises one at a time. The premise statement itself is most often a numeric or logical relation. For instance, "<parameter> = <parameter>".

Rules fire when premises are true, a false condition can be achieved by adding NOT to a premise as in "not <parameter> = <parameter>". Action statements can be of the same format as

premise statements or they can direct a subset of the ESE command language, such as "Establish <FCB>". There is an alternative form of rule, used when the premise statement of the rule must include statements of the relative levels of certainty in the parameters. statement or FIF. is: fif certainty of (plfinanceeval) > .5 and certainty of (pl marketeval) > .5 and certainty of (plcorporateeval) > .5 and certainty of (plcompetitoreval) > .5 and certainty of (plproducteval) > .5 then there is strong evidence that pl_finaleval is This is a Fuzzy IF

An example of a FIF statement from INNOVATOR

'approve'

4.3 Naming Convention As the number of ESE Objects increase, the difficulties of editing or modifying the Knowledge Base become more acute. There

18

is, however a simple method to maintain some control over increasing ESE Knowledge Bases, through the simple expedient of adopting a naming convention. ESE's built in editor allows the convenience of wildcard searches, using the * character, so that a user may access any and more importantly, all parameters, or rules, or FCBs, groups and screens, whose names share identical characters. I chose the following for my naming convention: <Product Type>_<Attribute Name)_[Additional Id]_<Goal> Where <Product Type> can be pl, which stands for product line, or P which stands for product, or b which stands for brand, <Attribute Name> stands for the attribute the object works with or assigns value to, [Additional Id] stands for whatever is necessary

and appropriate if the object would otherwise have a duplicate of an existing name, and <Goal> refers to the goal of that part of the Knowledge Base which the object is associated with. This convention was quite satisfactory for the development of the prototype of INNOVATOR, but as I began to expand it beyond mutual funds, I realized that it was not enough, an additional two character prefix is needed to identify differences in product catagories such as Mutual Funds vs. Real Estate Limited Partnerships vs. Stocks. The final form of the name of a Mutual

Fund, product Line Market value evaluation rule would be: MFPLMarketAEVAL

19

Where "A" would indicate that the rule would test for conditions appropriate for the approval of the product line, while a "D" would indicate a test for conditions inappropriate for approval.

4.4 Database Properties Two Database tables are used by the current form of INNOVATOR, although as more product types and catagories come into the data base, more will be needed. The first one stores profiles

of the Mutual Fund Product Line, and should be of appropriate format for other types of profiles with only a name change. The

advantage of this form of table, as pointed out by Professor Sudha Ram, is that name changes of attributes need not be propagated to the table columns. CREATE TABLE PROFILEPLEVAL (COMPANY CHAR(30) NOT NULL, COUSER CHAR(30), CHAR(30), PROFILENAME CHAR(30), PARAMETERNAME

PARAMETERVALUE INTEGER)

Where COMPANY is the column where the users company name is kept, COUSER is the column where the user's name is kept, PROFILENAME is the column where the name of the profile being stored is kept, PARAMETERNAME is the column where the names of attributes are stored and PARAMETERVALUE.

20

The second table is where records of the user session are kept. name, CREATE TABLE RESULTLOG (COMPANY CHAR(30) NOT NULL, COUSER PROFILETYPE CHAR(12), STARTDATE CHAR(20), This is a relatively straightforward recording of the users

CHAR(30), COTITLE CHAR(30), PROFILENAME CHAR(30), FINISHDATE CHAR(20)).

RESULT CHAR(40),

Where COMPANY, COUSER, COTITLE, PROFILETYPE, PROFILENAME are the same as in the OTHER TABLE. RESULT stores the final results of the session. While STARTDATE and FINISHDATE store the beginning

and ending times for the user consultation.

V. CONCLUSION One would like to finish a software project believing that the best code possible at the time had been implemented. that I cannot make that claim for my version of INNOVATOR. I regret I

embarked on this project with the tasking to implement access to DB2. This was accomplished. However, I am certain that

improvements can be made in the performance and friendliness of the program. Clearly this version of INNOVATOR should not be the

last one written. The older version of INNOVATOR was a hybrid program, using procedural language routines to store and retrieve data where the present version directly accesses DB2. Perhaps this strategy

should be reconsidered, not to abandon DB2, but to reincorporate the abilities of a procedural language. 21

INNOVATOR requires that a number of features relating to a single product be entered during each session. Rather than

causing the expert system to query the user concerning each feature, a procedural program could assist the user in setting the values, and then pass the file to DB2. editor such as DBEDIT could be used. Or perhaps a form

The ESE portion of the

program could be summoned after the appropriate database tables had been updated or constructed, which would leave only the reasoning tasks to be done by ESE. This strategy might produce a

faster application requiring fewer lines of code. Another aspect of INNOVATOR which could be improved are the explanation facilities, the HOW and WHY commands. The chief

difficulty here is that ESE does not support context sensitive explanation. HOW or WHY display the names of rules and It is more reasonable to

parameters currently being operated on.

believe that a user, activating the WHY facility, would want an explanation of what facts the program was seeking and how those facts would effect the heuristic being processed. Some expert

system environments already support this type of facility, perhaps ESE will eventually be upgraded to support it also. While

the programmer would obviously need to spend considerable extra time building effective explanation messages, the user would receive much better support. "Nice to have" improvements would include a more modern user interface. For instance, when presented with a multiple choice

list, the user might prefer highlighting the choice with a cursor 22

key and selecting it rather than entering an X or numeric character in the space in front of the selection. A graphical output might be useful; perhaps with a bar graph representing how each category of attribute had exceeded or fallen short of the required value. The section of my own code which least satisfies me are the rules for making the final determination on the product. I

divided the possible results into a set of rangers and guessed which should be approved, marginally approved etc. Academic

studies with guidelines that world indicate the cutoffs for each range would be better for this purpose. I neglected to look for

this type of information and the accuracy of this version of INNOVATOR suffers for it. I did learn a great deal about expert systems coding from this project. the near future. I hope to have another chance to apply it in

23

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ram, Sudha and Sundaresan Ram, "INNOVATOR: AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH DECISIONS," Applied Artificial Intelligence 2:129-148, 1988.

Addis, T.R. Designing Knowledge-Based Systems. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1985.

Bowerman, Robert G., B.S. and Glover, David E., Ph.D. Putting Expert Systems Into Practice. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co. Inc, 1988.

Walters, John and Nielson, Norman R. Crafting Knowledge Based Systems: Expert Systems Made Realistic. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc, 1988.

24

APPENDIX A Rules and Parameters FCB Additional Instance Query Announce Author Comment A Control Text Display Screen Dispose whendone Distinguishing Features Dynamic Rule Order Enter Value Screen External Value Screen External Data Goals Initial Data Initial Query Max Instances Multiple choice screen Name Parameters Parent Print Name Results Rules Parameter Author Comment Constraint Default constraint Expect value Format Mask Name long Prompt Owning FCB's Print Name Procedure Arguments Procedure Name Prompt Screen Sourcing Sequence Value Can Change Flag Rule Author Comment Justification Name Owning FCBs Print Name Rule Text Rule Type

25

APPENDIX B INNOVATOR PROGRAM LISTING

26

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