Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Expecting the Unexpected: Some Ancient Roots to Current Perceptions of Nature Author(s): Ingela M. B. Wiman Source: Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Apr., 1990), pp. 62-69 Published by: Springer on behalf of Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4313661 . Accessed: 28/08/2013 13:14
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Article

IngelaM.B.Wiman

Expecting the Roots Ancient of Nature

Some Unexpected: to Current Perceptions

This paper discusses the role of some ancient Greek and Roman conceptions of Nature's modi operandi as predecessors of various current ecological theories. The aim is to reveal the imprisoning characters of these perceptions if conceived as modern and final truths concerning future environmental management. The implications of various such perceptions for potential environmental futures are also briefly touched upon. The discovery of the ozone hole is referred to as an example where such a preconceived vision of Nature's behavioral pattern may have implied a prison for thought. The final section is devoted to the potentials for creating a more fruitful dialogue with Nature. The means of such an achievement are believed to be found in a constructive evaluation of alternative technological strategies as well as in consideration of mankind's intimate affinity with Nature.
"If you do not expect the unexpected you will notfind it;for it is hard to be searched out and difficultto compass" Heraclitus INTRODUCTION There seems to be a growing consensus that many of our ecological problemscan ultimately be referred to a fundamental dichotomybetween the concepts "mind" and "nature"in Western thinking (1). It may well be that such a divisionfunctions as a prisonfor our thoughtsand therefore also for our practical, societal actions. These actions are often governed by our perceptions of Nature's various modi operandi. Such perceptions may, in turn be looked upon as part-truths, represented in a society by myths, either in a normal sense, such as Greek myths, tales, or in a scientificsense, e.g. more or less obsolete, but neverthelessprevailingconceptionsin physics,archaeology,etc. The true characteristics of these modi are to the present day not fully understoodand any analysis of whether any such truth is at all attainable involves problemsof a philosophical characterbeyond the scope of this paper. Ultimately,such questionsconcem the relation of mankindtowardsNature. If we are indeed imprisonedby inadequate conceptions in ecological theory, this can generate unnecessarylimitations in our possibilitiesto forestall potentially hazardousenvironmentalfutures. It may also thwart efforts to prepare properly when we face regionaland global environmental change that has perhaps already been set irreversibly in motion. It is of the 62

has been registeredby only a few individuals presents itself in a way that does not correspondto mainstreamsocietally prejudicedconceptionsof Nature. For example, we learn from history that humans tend to express distinctly different opinions towardspossible futuredevelopment, one opinionwhen the epoch in questionis felt to be best characterizedby positive cultural self-consciousness, and quite another opinion in times of cultural pessimismand anxieties. For instance, a prosperous future, althoughdescribedin a remarkably well-balanced manner in comparisonwith some contemporaries,is evident in an article written in the early fifties; an epoch in western history noticeable for its predoutmost importance that any future deci- minantoptimism(Box 1). sions are based on as adequateperceptions Today, in the 20th century,the perspecas possible about the functionalmode of tives are gloomy in comparison(Box 2). ecologicalsystems.The overallpurposeof the following analysis of some current WARNERS ecologicaltheories, is to demonstratethat EARLY the seeds of modernthinkingwere sown a Environmental historyhas recordedmany long time ago-at the dawn of western a waming voice on the effects of some of civilization. Man'suses and abuses of Nature. Although there is an increasingnumber GeorgePerkinsMarsh,travelledaround of analyses of historicalroots to modern the world in the 19th century and comenvironmental problems,specificallyfrom mented on the environmenthe was faced the 17th century AD and onwards (2), with; (5) (Box 3). there is still a clear need to extend present As early as the 4th century BC, Plato researchefforts to include Nature percep- understoodand discussedthe effects of detions that were currentin Antiquity. The forestation(6). Thus, these de facto existimpact,especiallyof ancientGreece, upon ing ideas, had not penetratedto societies later Western culture cannot be overesti- separatedby not more than approximately mated. One can for instance mention the 60 generations.Instead, the causes of the rulesof art establishedby the Greekclassi- devastated environment in some of the cist movementin the fifth centuryBC. The Mediterranean are controversialeven toinfluencesof that epoch are still a vitalpart day and the conventional wisdom as to of modern artisticconceptions, as indeed Man'sinfluenceis being questioned(7). they have been during several periods History records an abundanceof early throughoutthe historyof art. warnerswho were not listened to. Why? The controversytouched upon above may exemplifyone of the difficultiesthat face CULTURAL OPTIMISM VERSUS us when dealingwith our relationsto natuPESSIMISM AS REFLECTED IN ral systems. The factual extent of our imATTITUDES TOWARDS pact on the functionalmodes of ecological ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURES systems is still unveiled, a situation that It has been said that futuresstudieswhere can be interpretedand acted upon in quite the future by definition has not yet been differentmanners. reachedare merelya reflectionof the presOn introspection the more or less ent state in a society. That is, environmen- hidden attitudes towards Nature deeply tal and other futures are thought of very buriedinsideof us mightrevealthatwe are differentlyduringculturaleras with differ- indeed ruledby ill-foundedconceptionsof ent societalfeatures.Thus, signsof serious Nature'smodi operandi,althoughwe may environmentaldegradationmight not be think, or pretend,that modernMan threw registeredin time if an early warningthat obsolete mythsoverboardlong ago. These
AMBIO VOL. 19 NO. 2, APR. 1990

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V~~~~~~~~
A0V

Figure 2a. Gala supervises Rome. Gala is seen resting, plenty. Her presence In this (Sichtermann, H. and Koch, 165.)

the creation of Man by Prometheus on a Roman sarcophagus In the Museo Capitolina In looking at the active Prometheus. The Iconographical identification of Gala is the horn of scene accentuates the peaceful and orderly character of the world as seen in this relief. G. 1975 Grlechische Myten auf R0mlschen Sarkophagen. Ernst Wasmuth, Tubingen, Pi.

Figure 1. A benign, globally stable Nature as seen simplifled from a humanist's mathematical perspective. The ball symbolizes an ecological system. The arrows represent stress factors and the sloping sides of the bowl are meant to illustrate the "always-return-behavior" of the ball or ecological system. (Modifled from Haken, H. 1978. Synergetlcs. Springer Verlag, Berlin.)

~~~~~~~~~~

I.

Figure 2b. Quite another Gala meets us on the great altar to Zeus from Pergamon, now transferred to Berlin. A troubled Gala halfway underground Is watching the fight between the gods and the giants, both of whom are her offspring (Pergamon Museum, Berlin).

part-truths or mythsmayunnecessarily imprison the most importantasset of mankind; imaginativecapability. Why should we persistin seeing only whatwe expect to find, instead of trying to handle the paradox of expectingthe unexpected? A BENEVOLENT OR MISCHIEVOUS NATURE? One of the simplest and most comforting contemporary part-truths implies that natural systemsare globally stable. This concept is outlinedin Figure 1. Regardlessof the characteror magnitudeof the disturbance, the system will return towards its originalstable state, or stable trajectory, once the stress is reduced. A globally stable system subjected to continuous or graduallyincreasing stress will either be kept at some distance from the equilibrium, behavingpredictablywith no runaway tendency, or it will effectivelyuse inherent stabilizing mechanisms balancing out the stress to regain equilibrium.
AMBIO VOL. 19 NO. 2, APR. 1990

When the degraded state of, e.g. the North Sea is discussed in public debate,
sentences like: ". . . It will take a long time

for the sea to recover..." reveal an unconscious belief in a benign Nature. It is then implicitly acknowledgedthat it will take a long time, but the capabilityof the ecological system to return to its former state is never questioned. This perception coversa familyof attitudesnamedby C.S. Holling as NatureBenign (8). A very close parallelto this concept is found in the human vision of a Mother Earth. This is a conceptrooted in ancientpeople's claimto a descent from Earth and a manifested feeling of affinity with Nature (9). This visionwas currentin the religiousthoughts of man even afterwe had begun to confess in a male creatorresidingin heaven (10). The Greek term for mother earth was Gaia or Ge. The personified aspect of Earth was introducedto Western thought by Hesiod in his Theogony,written about 700 BC (11). Recent scholarly research suggests that this myth has deep roots in

older oriental speculation (12). Hesiod recognized Gaia as the mother or grandmother of all anthropomorphized aspects of Nature. Zeus, the chief god, was the most important of them all. He did not reside in a remote heavenly abode, but manifestedhimself in the everydayatmospheric and meteorological phenomena. Above all, the Theogonyaimsat glorifying the rightfulrule of Zeus, who, very interestingly, reignedwith the consent and approvalof Gaia (Figs 2a and 2b). Nature perceived as a mischievous troublemaker,thus somewhat of a "noisy person", a "practical joker", following Holling's categorization,is another parttruth, where one additionalincrement, a mere fractionof a stress, can flip the system across the boundary of stabilizing capacity into a totally different mode of behavior (8). Thoughts like this probably had a strong influence on the ancients. Evidenceaboundsof superstitious reassurances against such an almost cunningly capricious,noisy and chaoticNature.Man 63

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strived to deal with Nature then in different ways, for instance by rigorously following rituals in every aspect of life; such as exemplified by the Etrusca disciplina, practiced by the Etruscans, (13) (Fig. 3). A typically instrumental attitude towards Nature was manifested in the engineering habits of the Roman people, whose fear of the wilderness is amply exemplified by their writers (14). Nature in its proper appearance was conceived as a huge wellmaintained garden with human manipulation everywhere present, wilderness and unpredictability having been engineered out of the natural environment (Fig.4). This fear of Nature and the resulting need to experience feelings of control manifest themselves even today in various forms of pseudosciences like astrology.

natural systems now being introduced into physics and theoretical ecology (19). "However, real ecosystems are not static or completely determined. Variability and change are the rule and provide the next step toward reality, with a view of a Resilient Nature (8)." This attitude towards Nature is in its simplest definition described as a combination of certain properties of the three others described above. Thus, the ideas of Heraclitus are reborn as attitudes covered by the "Natural Resilient" family by C.S. Holling,

rather than by the "Ephemeral Nature" group (20). If so, it took two and a half millenia to rediscover a path of thinking now gaining momentum in environmental science (Fig.6). Carl von Linne probably imagined a predictable, benign Nature, "Natura non facit saltus" (Nature doesn't make jumps), he taught (21). However, the possibilities of a surprising and surprised world, actually facit saltus, is gaining ground among biomathematical scientists (22). Consequently, the reactions of a seriously disturbed Nature might be fundamentally unpredictable.

A VINDICTIVE OR FORGIVING NATURE?

In the spring and early summer of 1988 several alarming incidents in the Scandinavian environment were reported in the daily newspapers, and gave echo in the scientific literature. Large numbers of seals, mostly Pagofilus groenlandicus, were found drowned in the coastal waters off Norway. Hunger was driving them into the fishermen's nets, probably because their staple diet, the capilan (Mallotus villosus) (23) in Barent's Sea, had been overfished. In 1987, the Norwegian government prohibited all fishing of capilan, but a year before this decision, in 1986, a quota of 120 000 tonnes was ensured. That same year the capilan stock collapsed (24). In the coastal waters of Skagerrak and Kattegat, huge uncontrolled blooms of the toxic algae, Chrysochromulina polylepis, were reported. The toxin in combination with the vast quantities of decomposing algae caused further degradation of the already stressed ecological systems in this part of the North Sea. The alarming sight of floating dead fish and the possibility of further deaths beneath the surface persuaded parliamentarians of the Northern Council to announce an extra session in November 1988 on environmental problems and pollution of the sea. In Sweden,

AN EVER-CHANGING OR SOMETIMESCHANGING NATURE?

The Greek philosophers living in Asia Minor in the 6th century BC were the first to refrain from mythological and superstitious thinking about Nature and turned to rational conceptions. They have left us with the first records of systematic thinking about Nature and Nature's functions without recoiling upon theological explanations. By their contemporaries they were not called philosophers but physiologoi- observers of Nature. Therefore, it is interesting to look at modern part truths in the light of this early thinking. A concept of an ever-changing natural environment, a group of attitudes encompassing Holling's "Ephemeral Nature", infers complete lack of stable behavior of ecological systems. They are perceived as fragile and caught in a natural rhythm of small-scale extinctions (Fig. 5) (8). Thus, there exists no true stability. An early foreboding of such a perception of the modus operandi of Nature can be ascribed to Heraclitus, who lived and worked around 500 BC. "You never step twice into the same river" or; "Upon those who are stepping into the same rivers different and different waters flow (15)," he is said to have taught, since "panta rei"-everything is in a state of flux, always and continuously, or at least in undetectable steps, transforming into another state of behavior (16). However, the works of Heraclitus are preserved only in fragments and quotations by other ancient authors. Therefore, it might be more justified to use expressions like: "Plato says that Heraclitus said that . . ." This situation naturally causes uncertainty regarding the actual thoughts of Heraclitus. Bertrand Russell gives the above interpretations of his teachings (17). According to G.S. Kirk, the panta rei quotation involves a misconception by Plato and Aristotle, taking it as an illustration of the behavior of things in general, whereas, "Heraclitus did not deny stability to the natural world. On the contrary, his main purpose seems to be to assert such a stability, which according to him underlies all change, and most notably change between opposites (18)." Understood like this, the suggestion emerges that Heraclitus' world view was a very early foreboding version of such resilient, flip-flop and even chaotic features of 64

Figure3. The soothsayer (haruspex) Chalcas examining a livertaken from a sacrificed animal. According to Etruscan belief, the liverwas parted in many bits, each controlled by a certain divinity. Ifa markor spot was visible at a location attributed to Zeus (named Tiniaamong the Etruscans), this god was the one wanting to communicate something or other. Thus, this liver in the hand of Chalcas served the purpose of an early warningsystem. (Etruscan mirror,VaticanMuseum, Rome).

Figure 4. Wall painting from Pompeii kept in Museo Nazionale in Naples. This type of landscape, with human manipulation everywhere present, reflects the urge among the Romans to tame Nature, exercising control in every aspect. (Mural painting from Pompeii, National Museum, Naples).

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ad hoc groupswere constitutedby the environmentalauthoritiesto investigate the situation(25). These are just a few examples, many more could be put forward. It is not unnaturalto the human instinct to conceive these reactions of a stressed Nature as a revenge; impersonal Nature suddenly turningnot only into a mischieviousBeing, but into a vindictive one. "Nature's revenge", or wordsto that effect, is implied in quite a numberof books, articles,and in publicdebate duringthe last few decades; perhaps pertaining more to a deeply rooted fear of Nature than to merely superficialwords (26). In a sense this attitude constitutesin a nutshell our strangelyambivalent perceptions of how Man relates himself to Nature; sometimes as her superiormaster, with a presumedmission to completely taming her and eventually disconnecting any possible dependenceon her and on other occasions suddenly her slave, being looked upon in anger as thoughwe were broughtback to Atlantis, punishedby the gods for ill-judgedactions (27). The God of the Old Testamentoften punished mankindthrough natural disasters such as the Great Flood or swarmsof locusts (28) consuming the fields of the mighty Pharaoh. There is a two-edged danger in assigningto Nature these punishing powers of God. First, there might be traced an antihumanisticand cynical comfort in this attitude. If mankinddoes not behave properly,Nature will engineer him out herselftherebycreatinga new and much more beautifulworld devoid of the irritating humanspecies. That is one of the reasons why this attitude might be a dangerousone, as it might lead to romanticizing and eventuallyto apathy. Opposite to this impossible view is another, equally meaningless,that Man must engineer Nature out fromthe futurebefore the reverse comes true. Only machines, not human beings, could exist in a completely artificial environment.It seems importantthat

Figure5. Constable's "Clouds" exemplify a type of ephemeral naturalphenomenon and shape never to repeat Itself exactly and needing non-Euclldiangeometry for adequate description.
,

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we recognize such seemingly bizarre extremes in the range of our perceptionsof Nature. Of course, Nature never revenges but merelyreacts;and there are important lessons to learn from these reactions. In June 1988, other algae had already appearedand the dominanceof the Chrysochromulina was broken. Stabilizing mechanismsseemed to have begun to operate. Herodotus (484-425 BC) alreadyknew that a natural system can act in a selfregulating manner. He noted that predators breed fewer young than do their prey (29). Such controllingand adjusting forces face us in the Gaia hypothesisformulatedby James Lovelock (30). According to this hypothesis our entire planet should be looked upon as a superorganism. The theoreticalbasisfor this idea consists in biological climate-controlling mechanisms. The biosphere is hypothesized to cooperate with the atmosphere (in turn linked with the hydrosphere, lithosphere and cryosphere) to form a "geophysiologicalentity" (31) in orderto maintaina climatesuitablefor life on Earth. Likewise, evidence in favor of the hypothesisis based mainlyon the suggestion that the climate has been suitable for life as long as life itself has existed (32).

NATURE LIKES TO HIDEITSELF The quotation from Heraclitus, "Nature likes to hide itself", serves the purposeof remindingus that we, as parts of Nature, presumably,can never graspthe full complexity of all her mechanisms (33). Theoretical ecology, although partly empirically supported, is a construction of thought and it is only from the fruits of varioussuch theoreticalconstructions that we can judge its actual value. A further

Figure 6. A surprising Nature as seen In a mathematical model. Again the ball symbolizes an ecological system and arrows stress factors (Fig. 1). Stability domains are seen as two adjacent bowls. If the system Is driven to the end of Its stability domain the ball might fall back but It might as well fall down Into a completely new way of behavior. (Modified from Haken, H. 1978. Synergetics. Springer Verlag, Berlin.)

BOX 1 "It is the year 2001 A.D. and the birth pangs of a new era have subsided" "The era of liquid fossil fuels is by the close of the century coming to an
end". ". . . atomic energy has not proved

BOX 2 "The deserts expand". "The forests, with their immense wealth of life forms, retreat." "The build-up of carbon dioxide and other gases in the air threaten with serious climaticchanges". "Hundredsof millionsof people live in poverty. . .".
". . . toxic pollutants continue to

BOX 3 "It appears then, that the fairest and fruitfullest provinces of the Roman Empire... are now completely exhausted of their fertility, or so diminished in productiveness, as, with the exception of a few favoured oases that have escaped the general ruin, to be no longercapableof affordingsustenance to civilizedman." "With the extirpationof the forest, all is changed... climate becomes excessive ... ... The precipitation becomes as ir-

to be an expedient way of lengthening the period in which man taps the sourcesof energy stored in the Earth's crust." "Solar energy, on the other hand,
...

threatenthe health of both people and

ecosystems.. ." (4).

by the end of the century is the

dominatingfactor in the productionof industrialpower." "With cheap power the economicalproductionof fresh water from the sea has become a reality..,. and more than one desert near a seacoasta gardenspot." "Rapidprogressin the utilizationof solar energy. . ." (3).

regularas the temperature...

... The face of the earth is no longer

a sponge ...
... Almost every narrative of travel

in those countrieswhich were the earliest seats of civilization, contains evidence of the truth of these general
statements..."

(5).

AMBIO VOL. 19 NO. 2, APR. 1990

65

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task of this paper is to discuss the intrinsic values and different consequences of some of the various theories presented above. One great merit of the Gaia hypothesis lies in the constructive discussions and new scientific directions that it has initiated. Mechanisms appear to exist which imply natural systems, or at least sub-systems, operating in a stabilizing way. Without Lovelock's work one example of such a potentially Gaian mechanism might never have been subjected to analysis and scientific debate, i.e. the possible climate controlling effects of marine phytoplankton producing dimethylsulfide (DMS) (31). Works like this seem to have influenced the detection of other planktonic mechanisms and the great role played by microorganisms for instance in the interaction between different ecological systems (34). The quotation: "If you do not expect the unexpected you will not find it...," could be applied in reverse here, since once a natural phenomenon has been described or suggested, we obviously strive to get the means to recognize it even if a clear-cut and incontestable theory is lacking (35). From the aspects of theoretical ecology the existence per se of this type of homeostatic mechanism seems to be supported, albeit not on this large spatial and temporal scale. However, it is imperative to notice that, as yet, very little is known about the vulnerability of several such mechanisms. There is support for the standpoint that stabilizing capacity in natural systems only operates within stability domains; the DMS-thermostat process referred to above, if it exists, might then have its limits and might start to flip in an unpredictable manner to another type of stabilization. Recent research, devoted to stability theory of ecological systems, suggested that complex ecological systems are more vulnerable to stress than are less complex ones (36). To the limited extent that Gaian mechanisms have so far been investigated or adequately understood, it is clear that their operation requires extremely complex sets of biological, chemiFigurelO. Aworkof art from Ravenna,
Italy the site of ancient and modern

NATURE BENIGN
Impact (e.g. concentration of greenhouse gases)

NATURE SURPRISING (SURPRISED)

impact(e.g. concentrationof greenhouse gases)
..

systems change (e.g. mean latitude of some biome) TIME >

systems change (e.g. mean latitudeof some biome) TIME>

Figure 7. Assumed behavior by a benevolent or benign Nature if exposed to any kind of stress. Once the stress is lessened or removed the system in question will start to adjust itself somewhat delayed to the well-known former state of behavior. (Figure by Bo. L. B. Wiman.)

Figure8. Surprising Naturebehavior. At some time in the system's history, the stress factor has removed the system beyond Its stability domain, the system starts to flip in an uncontrolled manner, possibly involving not only rapidchange, but also an increased frequency of extreme events. (Figureby Bo L. B. Wiman.)

cal, and physical feedbacks and linkages, operating within an enormous spatial, from biochemical macromolecules to vast formations of clouds, and temporal, from fast biochemical cellular reactions to longterm changes in solar input, range. Figure 6 aims at illustrating how ecological systems may change from one mode of operation to another. Once a system, like the ball in Figure 6, has been pushed beyond the boundaries of its stability domain, it might fall back, but it might very well end up in a totally different behavioral pattern.

INA RESILIENT RHEA-MECHANISMS NATURE?

Thus, a combination of stabilizing processes such as implied by the Gaia hypothesis and the varying degrees of vulnerability in different kinds of ecological systems might at present favor a conception of resilient behavior incorporating a potential for surprise in natural systems. As a intellectual experiment, let us see where this line of reasoning may lead. Perceiving natural systems in such an integrated manner, Gaia plus surprise, would not deny the existence of Gaian-like mechanisms, if restricted to many micro-Gaias working on a local basis. C.S. Holling touches upon this
, ,

Figure9. Laconiancup from Museo Etrusco Gregoriano in the Vatican, Rome. To the left Atlas stands holding the flrmamentand to the right is Prometheus bound to a pillarand helplessly exposed to the vulturefeeding on his liver. Zeus was Inthis way punishing Prometheus (he-whopossesses-forethought) since he had tried to outwit the gods and helped his protege, man, to obtain possession of fire. Bound like this, Prometheus might symbolize the safe-fali technology when overlooked or ignored. DuringPrometheus' absence his unfortunatebrother Epimetheus (hewho-thinks-afterwards), among other things marriedPandora.In her famous dowry, the box, were kept all kinds of nuisances laterto be spread out and henceforth harass mankind.(Vatican Museum,Rome.)

schools of mosaics
in divine service,

Jerry Carter's inspiring vision of the Sec-

ond Genesis, a glass

mosaic/relief free-

standing concave
monument.

11~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~d

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in the formulation"Ecosystems are gaia writ small (22)." As an example, we may considerprocesses in action when a cushion of moss strives to maintain its inner microclimate.When such small-scalesystems are hierarchicallycoordinated into the total largerunits, finallyencompassing globe, we could talk of Rhea-mechanisms. Rhea was the daughter of Gaia and mother of most of the next-generation Olympic Greek gods; so Rhea-mechanisms would be a further elaboration of Greek mythologicalterminology.A Rheamechanismshouldthus correspondto that specificdaughterof Gaia that duringa certain period of Earth's history acted as of the biosphere.If exposedto coordinator stressbeyond her collected experienceshe would hand over this coordinatingfunction to another Rhea-mechanism with other types of tailor-madeproperties(37). One questionto considerin this context is the extension of the stability domain of such a superiorcontroller.Is it, in accordance with suggestionsfrom the theory of complexsystems, small and vulnerable,or are other ecological principles at work here? This Rhea-concept, however, like still the one of a superior Gaia-organism lacksempiricalsupport(38). The mainvalue of a Rhea-conceptwould be its potential for unifying the otherwise incompatible concepts of Lovelock and Holling. HISTORY ENVIRONMENTAL Another shift in the operationalmode of such a surprising-or perhapsrathersurprised-Nature was recently detected, enabling exemplification of the above ideas by the aid of what may now be consideredclassicalenvironmentalhistory. About twenty years ago, it was feared that the emissionof oxides of nitrogendirectly into the stratosphereby the supersonic airplanescould seriously affect the ozone layer (39). Hitherto, this fear has not been verified. Instead, in 1985 alarming reportsfromBritishscientistsindicated a large-scaledepletion of the ozone layer above the Antarctic continent every October, the so-called "ozone hole" (40). The following year these observations were verified by the Nimbus 7 satellite (41). Interestinglyenough, seen in the context of preconceived views of Nature's aboutthis depletion reactions,information was reportedby the satellite several years before the problemwas discoveredby the British scientists and nearly one decade before it was published by NASA. The computerized technical information in 1978 (when routineswere programmed Nimbus 7 went into orbit) to discardextremes, such as the October readings, as unrealistic(42). The setting up of these routinesmay thus have been inadvertently affected by too narrow a perception regardingNature'sbehavioralpatterns,i.e., Nature couldn'tpossibly change so drastically. Neither was the hole in any way predicted by physicochemical models. Advanced technology does not seem to provide efficient early warningsabout environmental damage, unless based upon nonprejudicedattitudes towards Nature. Furthermore, technical observations are
AMBIO VOL. 19 NO. 2, APR. 1990

complements, not substitutes for human tion at that time (47). Indeed, a major eruption it must have been, temporarily powers of observationand combining. darkeningthe sun so muchthat "the fruits did not ripen". Luckilyfor Procopiusand WHAT LESSONSCANBE LEARNED his contemporaries there was at that time FORTHEFUTURE? no large-scaleor global dispersionof man It wouldbe wise to recognizethat the elas- madepollutantsto add to the disaster.Obticity of naturalsystemshas its limits and, viously, Nature did return to its original if sufficientlystressed, the systems might state of behavior after this nonanbreakdown-and lead to surprisein time thropogenicincident. and space. Nature is forgiving-to a certain degree-and does not shift capriEFFECTS ciously following minor perturbations. GREENHOUSE Thismeansthat we are faced with a funda- A well-knowndiagramgivingthe resultof mentallynew taskin formulating appropri- measurements (Mauna Loa, Hawaii) of ate management policies and risk concentrations of carbondioxidein the atphilosophies. Firstly, we must be aware mosphere clearly shows an increasing that the resilient property implies that if curvefrom 1960to 1985(48). A long-term humanimpactsincreasegradually,natural seriesof temperatures fromabout 1850unsystemsmay seem deceptivelyunaffected. til the present conclusivelypresentsa rise Disruptionof stabilizing capacitycan come in temperature of about0.50C.Severalscirapidly,beyondthe point of no return.An entistssupporta 10 to 15-cmrise in the sea extremelyimportantresearchtask is then level (global average) during the last ca. to find out whether tendencies towards 150years (48). Risingtemperature and sea such disruptioncan be sensed while there level are suggested effects of increasing is still time for counteracting measures.It greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmay well be that such signs of the system mosphere. What effects might such a rise "preparingto shift from one domain of in mean temperature bringto the environstabilityto another"will take the form of mental future? increasing frequency of extreme events The effects of this increase are not yet (43) such as flooding, droughts,blizzards, clearly understood or stated, but many an unusualnumberof algal blooms, gras- fear a spread of the desert climate up to shopperinvasions, forest fires, etc. If we Gaia's ancient stronghold-the Mediteraccept the idea visualized in Figure 6, ranean(49). A possiblywarmerclimatein there shouldbe at least some time-albeit the Northern Hemisphere might have its little-available on the threshold, where price in, e.g. less agreeabledesert winds, the system is in unstable equilibrium,be- like the scourge of Italy and France, the fore the no-return(i.e. runaway)behavior malign scirocco. This is an unpleasant starts. Given that methods are developed possibility to be contemplated alongside to assess that the system is approaching visions of Scandinavianpaprikafields or this point, and given that counteracting vineyards,both phenomena are the posmeasurescan be applied fast enough the sible resultsof major climatechange (50). systemcan be "forced"back (44). Poseidon, grandsonof Gaia, impersonatCan such methodsbe designed?Here, it ing the roaring sea might feel his power seems to be a fundamentalquestion of swelling.An expected rise of the high-waunderstandingthe mathematics used by ter level by about half a meter would natural systems. But, to an author from changethe contoursof mapsconsiderably. the humanities,above all it seems to be an It is interestingin this connection to cite essential question of realizingthat we are Mansour Khalid, vice president of the imprisoned in a deceptive perception Brundtland Commission: "At the preswhere Nature is assumedto add up num- entation of the results of the commission bersthe way we do ourselves:two plus two concerningpollution and ruthless exploiare four. But Nature obviously calculates tion of Nature, the Presidentof the Maldiquite differently,addingup anthropogenic vian Islands was personally present. His impactssuch as increasinglevels of man- country will be the first to sink into the made greenhouse gases with natural im- ocean" (51). pacts from, e.g. volcanic eruptions or Going back to our preconceivedopinchanges in solar activity in unexpected ions, how would a benign Nature react, if manners(45). emissions of, e.g. greenhouse gases were .... And it came about during this year restricted? (Fig. 7). A benign Nature that a most dread portent took place. For would slow down, a bit delayed, but soon the sun gave forth its light withoutbright- the old equilibrium state would rule again. ness, like the moon, during this whole The desert climate would return to its year, and it seemed exceedingly like the place of origin and the presidentof Malsun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were divia, havingthus been properlyinformed, not clear nor such as it is accustomedto can choose to raise world opinionor leave shed. And from the time when this thing the islandsin time, with his people, cherhappenedmen were free neitherfrom war ishing the wishful expectationsof a possnor pestilencenor any other thing leading ible return. to death. And it was the time when JustiActing as an unpredictable practical nian was in the tenth year of his reign joker, Nature might perform conjuring (46)." The tenth year of Justinians'reign tricks with our opinion of the physical was 536-537 AD. Stothers has combined world (Fig. 8). The currentaccumulating this quoted passage from Procopiuswith heat from the Indian Ocean is providing the fact that a very high sulfuricacid signal the Scandinavian countrieswith a warmer has been detected in the Greenland ice climate than that of Canadaon the oppocore dated540 ? 10 AD. This acidsignalis site side of the North Atlantic, where the an indicationof some majortropicalerup- current turns into a deep-ocean saline 67

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stream. If this current, as a result of the increasing greenhouse effects on the sea surface, chooses to turn further south for instance, the effect on the Scandinavian climate might be a cooling, not warming (52). Clearly, facing this not impossible environmental future, we must not be trapped in a conception that currents now following certain stabilized trajectories in the atmosphere and the ocean cannot, or will not take other possible routes. We might also note that some scenarios for the future sea level do not rule out the possibility of a drop in sea level (53). A surprised and surprising Nature might not react according to rules assumed by mankind. Clearly, unpredictability and the potentially high rate of change create future scenarios where there are not likely to be any winners at all on a climatically changing Earth.

SAFE-FAIL INSTEAD OF FAIL-SAFE

The environmental history already written points to the fact that before relying mere-

ly upon technological, scientific or economicalearly warningsystems, we should analyzeour underlyingperceptionsof Nature so that adequate technology be implemented.It is ratherin our own attitudes towards Nature that the basic means of effective and early warnings are to be sought. At present,we seem to follow a tendency to establish what we suppose should become infallible ecological systems, a fail-safe strategy. This strategy, and variants thereof that "imitateNature"appear to rely on Nature as a well-known and trustworthycollaborator.But if essential knowledgeis lackingthis is likely to be a strategy inviting unpleasant future surprises. Modern large-scale agricultureis seeminglybased on the idea of a completely tamed Nature. Otherwiseit is hard to explain the obviously deeply felt surprise each time some new parasiteconsumesoat fieldsor potato crops, despitecarefullyapplied insecticides.But, Nature in the disguise of armies of lice or locusts, for instance, may react with strategiesor com-

ponents that we cannot foresee. The mythologicalgreek Titan and benefactor of mankind,Prometheus,a name actually meaning "he-who-thinks-before" may or "he-who-possesses-forethought" symbolizehere all the sound eruditionof human technology (54). Prometheus would strive to create a safe-fail system (55). The mainpoint shouldbe that if such a system fails, it will fail as kindly as possible, with a soft landing, and with manageableresults.Examplesin this direction can be gatheredfrom, e.g. differentagricultural strategies originally invented by people living in marginalareas. The Hopi indianslivingin barrenpartsof northeastern Arizonainventeda farmingtechnique enablingthem to make theirlivingfor generationsin a very dryarea(56). Thisexample of some principles involved in a strategy for achieving sustainabilityfrom limited natural resources is well in line with such safe-failbehavior.Ancient people in mining areas seem to have planted species around the mines. rapid-growing The first years the trees were protected

References and Notes

1. Cf e.g. Bateson, G. 1980. Mind and Nature. A Necessary Unity. Fortana/Collins. Porty, R. 1980. Philosophy and The Mirror of Nature. Princeton Univ. Press, 343 p. This thinking is traceable to the period in human history when a division of body and soul arose and the soul was conceived as the most noble, the most true and godlike aspect of human nature. Plato (427-347 BC) was the first to present such thinking in more detail. This dualistic conception swelled to a cosmology and was one of the leading theories by the end of the Hellenistic epoch. At that time it entered into the teachings of many early fathers of the Christian Church and was thus conserved by Western thought. Psyche meant "breath" in older Greek and was used firstly by Pindar and Plato in the more extensive meaning of "spirit, mind". A large conference held in Hannover in the spring of 1988 attracted many renowned scientists such as Ilya Prigogine, Hans Durr, Karl Popper and Albert von Weizsacker. The theme of the conference: Mind and Nature, further emphasizes the importance of finding new fruitful attitudes towards Nature for the sake of Man's survival on Earth. A way to achieve such changed attitudes must be sought in, among other things, an integration of these two concepts in a so called "holistic" approach. "Geist und Natur. Welt und Wirklichkeit im Wandel der Erfarung." Offentlicher Internationaler Kongress. Stiftung Nidersachsen. Hannover May 21-25, 1988. Symposium participation was made possible by a special grant from the Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies and the University Board, Lund University. 2. For instance White, L. Jr. 1967. The Ancient roots to our ecological crisis. Science 155. The perspectives expressed in White's article penetrated deeply into the views of the contempory ecologists. His suggestion of a new orientation in Western thought, personified in St. Francis, resulted in the creation 1980 by the Pope of this "little brother of God" as the "Patron of Ecology". See also Timmermann, P. Mythology and surprise in the sustainable development of the biosphere. In Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Clark, W.C. and Munn, R.E. (eds.). IIASA. Cambridge University Press, p. 435-454. 3. Conant, J.B. 1981. A skeptical chemist looks into the crystal ball. Chem. Eng. News 29, 3847-3849. Short and cut quoting as used here is naturally not quite fair to the original text. However, the purpose is to show the overall positive attitude towards the future, such as implied by Conant, and not to summarize the full contents of his article. 4. World Resources Institute. 1987. Annual Report. Sustaining Global Resources. 5. Marsh, G.P. 1987. The Earth as Modified by Human Action. (A new edition of Man and Nature. London 1874). "I know no more important practical lessons in this earthly life of ours .. . than those relating to the employment of the sense of vision in the study of nature". p. 13. 6. Plato. Critias III a-d. 7. Delano Smith, C. 1979. Western Mediterranean Europe. A Historical Geography of Italy, Spain and Southern France Since the Neolithic, Gives a summary of these discussions p. 317-325. See also Meiggs, R. 1982. Trees and Timber in the Ancient Mediterranean World. Oxford, p. 371; and van Andel, T., Runnels, C.N. and Pope, K.O. 1986. Five thousand years of land use and abuse in the southern Argolid, Greece. Hesperia 55. 8. Holling, S. (ed.). 1980. Environmental Assessment and Management. International Series on Applied Systems Analysis. IIASA, Wiley and Sons, p. 9. 9. The controversy of this question is touched upon by Burkert, W. 1985. Greek Religion. Archaic and Classic. Basil Blackwell, London, p. 11; and more specifically by Cantarella, E. 1983. Pandora's Daughters. Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore, p. 11-19. 10. Commonly the Mary-worship in the Western Church is seen, iconographically at least, as a reminiscence from the Mother-goddesses (esp. Isis) en vogue in the Roman Empire. 11. Hesiod. 1966. Theogony. Edited with Prolegomena and Commentary by M.L. West, Oxford University Press, Oxford. 12. Andersen, L. 1976. Nogle Forudsaetninger for Hesiods Theogoni. Museum Tusculanum 27. (In Danish, with a summary in English). 1987. Burkert, W. 1987. Oriental and Greek mythology: The meeting of parallels. In Interpretations of Greek Mythology. Bremmer, J. (ed.). N.J. Barnes & Nobel Books, Totowa. 13. Thulin, C.O. 1906. Die Etruskische Disciplin. Goteborgs Hogskolas Arsskrift, V. Goteborg. Pfiffig, A.J. 1975. Religio Etrusca. Akademische Druck-u, Verlagsanstalt, Graz-Austria. 14. Cf. for instance this passage: "We are the absolute masters of what the earth produces. We enjoy the mountains and the plains. The rivers are ours. We sow the seed, and plant the trees. We fertilize the earth... We stop, direct, and turn the rivers: in short by our hands we endeavour, by our various operations in this world, to make, as it were, another Nature"; Cicero, Nature of Gods ii 60: 30-67. An introductory discussion about ancient attitudes toward Nature is found in Hughes, J.D. 1967. Ecology in Ancient Civilizations. Univ. of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque. 15. Fragment no. 12 (Dielz-Kranz). 1967. For discussion on preserved fragments see Marcovich, M. Heraclitus, Los Andes University Press, Venezuela. 16. According to Lovejoy, a concept called "the great chain of being" was traceable to Plato and Aristotle through Plotinus. This concept implies a principle of continuity of the creation much in the same way as a chain where each link combines the preceeding and forthcoming moments. Lovejoy, A.O. 1973. The Great Chain of Being. A Study of the History of an Idea. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Mass. 17. Russel, B. 1961. History of Western Philosophy. Allen and Unwin, London, p. 57-65. 18. Kirk, G.S. 1962. Heraclitus. The Cosmic Fragments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 370. 19. "Prof. Prigogine. . ., observing that science is complex and probabilistic where the notions of irreversibility randomness and bifurcation are profoundly altering hitherto unchallenged concepts.". Prigogine, I. 1986. Science, civilization and democracy. Values, systems, structures and affinities. Futures, p. 493. 20. Holling, C.S. 1987. Simplifying the complex: The paradigms of ecological function and structure. Eur. J. Operat, Res. 30, 139-146. 21. Asplund, J. 1979. Teorier om Framtiden, Liber Forlag, Stockholm, p. 206. The original latin quotation has been attributed to Maxentius from Tyros in his Dialoghi 15,4, 125-185. (Bendz-Guterman Hobein PWM 2555). 22. Cf. e.g. Holling, C.S. 1987. "The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change"; and Timmerman, P. in W.E. Clark and R.E. Munn 1987 (cf note 2). 23. Curator Roy Danielsson, Department of Zoology, University of Lund, kindly supplied the latin names of these and other species named in the article. 24. Dagens Nyheter, June 17, 1988. 25. An article in Ambio 17, 289-290: Rosenberg, R., Lindahl, 0. and Blanck, H. Silent spring in the sea, mentions several possible causes for this algal bloom, "eutrophication, . . . climate, micronutrients (e.g. cobalt) and even toxic compounds. ..". 26. Carson, R. 1962. Silent Spring. Hamish Hamilton, London. Cf. also, Sullivan, S. 1987. Nature's revenge. "If you don't like the world's climate today, wait till you see the 21st century." Newsweek, March 2, 1987. Sullivan's article is written with conscious alarmism. The impact of Silent Spring has been tremendous, compare e.g. the title of the rapport of the algal bloom: Silent Spring in the Sea (cf. note 25). 27. Plato recounted the tale of Atlantis-a well-ordered and prosperous continent-until the king, driven by greed, tried to conquer Athens too, then the gods punished him by letting the continent sink into the ocean. This myth has had a revival in modern times with the discovery of Akrotiri on the southeastern part of Thera, a Greek equivalent to Pompeii, buried in ashes when the volcano that was Thera exploded, leaving only a mere contour of the originally circular island. 28. In this connection it is illuminating to draw attention to reports on swarms of grasshoppers invading the Caribbean Islands from Africa, in Swedish newspapers (among others Svenska Dagbladet 23rd of October 1988). The grasshoppers were blown over the ocean by means of an unusually powerful hurricane called "Joan". Such accumulations of "extreme events" are thought to appear as
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from grazinganimals, but when the trees were large enough animals had excellent food both from their leaves and from the grass growingbeneath. The 21st year the forest was felled to secure wood for mining, the area was burned and some crop was planted. Next year anotherplantation of trees was made and so forth (57). This example hints at revitalizingor designing multiple-useagroforestrysystems, whose CO2sinking capacityshould not be overlooked, for safe-fail strategiesof today. Many achievementsof moderntechnology have been made in environmental problem solutions of which Prometheus would have approved. Nevertheless, his unfortunate brother, Epimetheus, "hewho-thinks-afterwards",still seems to have command over large parts of our technological strategies (Fig. 9). Epimetheus would be likely to choose Third Worldnationsas depositsfor his industrial waste. Furthermore,he would insist on living on a benign Earth, one that would independentlybe expected to correctmistakes of any scale.

"EYESANDEARSARE POOR WITNESSES FORMENIFTHEIR SOULSDO NOTUNDERSTAND THE LANGUAGE (58)". It mightthus be a primary task of mankind to change attitudes in directions that would entail that Nature be treated as an integrated part in a dialogue. New risk philosophies,even scientificstyles, have to be designed. One possible means of achievingthis is to restrict further pollution as drastically as would be possible withoutjeopardizingfundamentalsocietal goals. Because one main task now seems to be to gain time for basicresearchon the operational modes of various ecological systems, and our perceptionsof these systems. A serious dialogueis one that takes place when the signs of disruptions of stabilizing propertiesare analyzedin order to look for alternativestrategies. What is needed is a continuouslyrepeated reconsiderationand adaptationto our environment based on the knowledgethat no naturalsystemis static, neitherwhen exposed to pollutionnor under naturalconditions.

Very likely, ethical perspectives such as those implied in the now familiar "think globally-act locally"attitudewill have to gaingroundand practicalimplementation. The deep roots of currentperceptionsin ancientthinkingmay also serve as inspirations in our creationof environmental futures; ". . . man is beginning to discern

more clearly what wise men of all ages have intuitively felt-his essential unity withthe Universe... To say with the great Stoic-O Universe, whatsoeveris in harmony with thee, is in harmonywith me. The being whose will is so adjustedis Fortune's favorite;all thingsmust bend to his will as they bend to Nature'slaw. For his will is Nature'slaw (33)." As we are indeed partsof Nature, a true warningsystem, enabling sustainableenvironmentalfutures and not questioning humanisticprinciples,could then perhaps be found when listening inwards into ourselves, much in the same way as Socrates constantlylistened to his inner voice-his daimonion (59). Perhaps this is where a new dialoguecan begin (Fig. 10).

forebodings of major climate change, cf. note 43. 29. Herodotus. History book 111:108. 30. Lovelock, J.E. 1979. Gaia. A New Look at Life on Earth. Oxford University Press, Oxford, and, The Ages of Gaia. A Biography of Our Living Earth. W.W. Norton & Co. New York, 1988. 31. Charlson, R.J., Lovelock, J.E., Andreae, M.O. and Warren, S.G. Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate. Nature 326, 655-661. 32. Lovelock is generous with his definition of a stable climate. Cores taken from the Antarctic glacier demonstrate oscillations in Earth's temperatures ranging about ? 6?C. However, the fact remains, since life still exists the temperature has been suitable for life. 33. "No system can understand itself" cf. Lotka's maximum principle in Lotka, A.J. 1956. Elements of Mathematical Biology. Dover Publications, New York. 34. Barrie, L.A., Botenheim, J.W., Schnell, R.C., Crutzen, P.J. and Rassmussen, R.A. 1988. Ozone destruction and photochemical reactions at polar sunrise in the lower arctic atmosphere. Nature 334, July. 35. Schneider, S.H. 1986. A Goddess of the Earth?: The debate on the Gaia hypothesis-an editorial. Climatic Change 8, 1-4. According to T. Kuhn, such effects of new hypotheses are detectable in most scientific work, Kuhn, T.S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago. 36. Pimm, S.T. 1984. The complexity and stability of ecosystems. Nature 307, 321-325, and Holling, C.S. (cf. note 2) and Wiman, B. and Holst, J. 1982. Teoretisk Ekologi. Om Stabilisering och Foranderlighet i Ekologiska System. Naturresursoch Miljokommitten, Bakgrundsrapport 11, Stockholm. (In Swedish). 37. Support for this theory might be sought in various "reserve-systems" provided by, e.g. ecological systems in random areas. The small Branchipus living in salty puddles in the old world deserts are producing eggs that can survive for up to a hundred years awaiting the next rainfall, or the globally spread Artemisia salina with abilities to live and reproduce in both fresh and extremely saline waters. 38. The use of expressions like "Gaia" and "Rhea" does not refer to any hidden teleological or anthropomorphorizing attitude. A true "she" is not apprehended but a collection of mechanisms. The expressions are used in order to save space. 39. Crutzen, P.J. 1972. SST's-A threat to the Earth's ozone shield. Ambio 1, 41-51. 40. Farman, J.C., Gardiner, B.G. and Shanklin, J.D. 1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClO,/NO, interaction. Nature 315, May. 41. Stolarski R.S., Schoeberi, M.R., McPeters, R.D., Newman, P.A. and Alpert, J.C. 1986. Nimbus 7 satellite measurements of the springtime Antarctic
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ozone decrease. Nature 322, 808-811. 42. Cf. e.g. Harrar/NASA/Boston TV: The Hole in the Sky, August 1986. 43. Parry, M.L. Some implications of climatic change for human development. Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Clark, W.C. and Munn, R.E. (eds.). IIASA. Cambridge University Press, Chapter 14. 44. It should be noted that this is the humanist way of stating these matters, the quantifying of these questions has to be undertaken by technicians and theoretical ecologists. 45. Wiman, B. 1988. Att vidmakthdlla naturresurserna. Institutet for Framtidsstudier och Allmanna Forlaget, Stockholm. (In Swedish). 46. Procopius of Caesarea. 1953. History of the Wars IV, 5-6. (Trans. H.B. Dewing) The Loeb Classical Library. 47. Stothers, R.B. 1984. Mystery cloud of AD 356. Nature 307, 344-345. 48. Bolin, B., Doos, B.R., Jager, J. and Warrick, R.A. 1986. The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems. Wiley and Sons, New York. 49. Brouwer, F. and Falkenmark, M. 1988. Water availability in Europe. IIASA-paper Presented at the 8th International Synmposium on Forecasting, June 12-15. Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 50. Arrhenius, E. 1987. Society's reaction to scientific information about greenhouse effects. Volume J in European Workshop on Interrelated Bioclimatic and Land Use Changes. Noordwijerhout, The Netherlands, October 17-21. 51. "Drivhuseffekten forandrar varlden". Ny Teknik. Teknisk tidskrift 1988:3. 52. Paleoclimatic evidence points to a shutdown of the North Atlantic conveyor belt during glacial periods. Such a shutdown would cool the North Atlantic and its adjacent lands by 6-8?C. . . Finally, the only feasible mechanisms scientists have come up with to explain rapid changes in the atmosphere's CO2 content involve modifications in the ocean's circulation pattern and intensity." Broecker, W.S. 1987. Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 328, 123-126. 53. Titus, J.G. (ed.). 1986. Effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and global climate; Vol. 4: Sea level rise. EPAIUNEP Report October 1986 (from the International Conference on Health and Environmental Effects of Ozone Modification and Climate Change), p. 19-36. 54. The implications of the Prometheus myth are discussed by Dodds, E. R. 1974. The Ancient Concept of Progress. Oxford University Press, Oxford, cap. II "The Prometeus Vinctus and the Progress of Scholarship. " 55. Cf. Holling, C.S. 1979. Surprises in resource and environmental systems. Prepared for the 4th General Assembly, Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), Resilience symposium, June 13, 1979. 56. Page, J. 1985. Arid Lands. Time-Life Books B.V.,

Amsterdam. 57. Fries, C. 1981. Flyktig Jord. Wahistrom & Widstrand, Stockholm esp. p. 108-127 (In Swedish). For ancient forestry in general see Seidensticker, A. 1886. Waldgeschichte des Alterthums. Frankfurt. 58. Heraclitus, Fragment 107. 59. The inner voice, the advice of which Socrates not always followed, but which at critical times helped him to avoid committing actions of folly. Apology 31 c-d, Symposion 175 a-b. 220 c-d, Faidros 242 bc, Euthydemos 272 e. 60. This paper is part of an interdisciplinary project: "Cultural and techno-ecological potentials and constraints in managing natural resources" carried out in cooperation with Bo L.B. Wiman, Dept. of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, University of Lund and Dept. of Natural Resources Management, University of Stockholm, and financed by the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research and by the Futura Foundation. The paper is based on a lecture given by the author at the Conference "Environment 88", University of Lund, April 26, 1988. Bo Wiman read various versions of this manuscript. His constructive support and criticism are gratefully acknowledged. Thanks for constructive help are also due to Jerker Blomqvist and Pontus Reimers, Dept. of Classics, University of Lund and the Swedish newspaper "Dagens Nyheter" science reporter Gosta Karlsson. Finally, I thank William Stigliani, IIASA, and one unknown referee for constructive criticism of an earlier version of this paper.

Ingela Wiman is at the Department of Classics, University of Lund, Sweden, where she is writing a thesis on the classification of Etruscan mirrors and their role in the Etruscan culture and technology. She is a member of the International Committee for the publishing of a Corpus Speculorum Etruscorum. As a research associate at the Department of Environmental and Energy System Analysis, University of Lund, she is engaged in environmental history research. Her address: Department of Classics, Lund University, Solvegatan 2, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden.

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