CEPAL REVIEW Chinese Edition Full Text

201211
REVIEW
Alicia Brcena
Antonio Prado
ECONOMIC
COMMISSION FOR
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
Osvaldo Sunkel
Chairman of the Editorial Board
Andr Hofman
Director
Miguel Torres
Technical Editor
CIP
/ . :
, 2012.11
ISBN 978-7-80234-857-8
. . . . F173.04-53
CIP2012242500
CEPAL Review Special Chinese Edition
Copyright by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean / ECLAC
United Nations 2012
This work was originally published by Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean / ECLAC. This Chinese translation was arranged by the Deutsche
Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit / GIZ. In case of any discrepancies, the
original language will govern.

168 100037
ISBN 978-7-80234-857-8

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CEPAL REVIEW
Alicia Brcena
III
Alicia Brcena
21
Osvaldo Rosales
1990~2006
41
Roberto lvarez E.Eugenio Figueroa B.Mara Pa Figueroa Z.Macarena Palma E.
55
Rhys Jenkins
69
Eduardo GitliRandall Arce
85
Jorge Blzquez-LidoyJavier RodrguezJavier Santiso
109
Dani Rodrik
131
Manuel R. Agosin
147
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
163
Jos Antonio Ocampo
185
Ramn Lpez
205
Gustav RanisFrances Stewart
221
1990~2005
Simone Cecchini Andras Uthoff
235
Daniel Sotelsek Leopoldo Laborda

255
Andr HofmanMiguel Torres
273
201211
CEPAL REVIEW
CEPAL
Review
ECLACCDRF
30
20125
CAF
LAIA
2005~2010
Latin America-Asia-Pacific Relations
Observatory
1976
Ral Prebisch36
4000
Thomson
ReutersSSCI
2000~2011
Journal of Economic
Literature
15
201211
II
CEPAL REVIEW
CDRF
BMZ
GIZ
Alicia Brcena
201211
III
CEPAL REVIEW
27
80
GIZ
30
GIZ
201211
1
CEPAL REVIEW 10020104
Alicia Brcena
Alicia Brcena
alicia.barcena@cepal.org
ECLAC
2008
2090
Mario CimoliFilipa CorreiaDaniel Titelmann

Osvaldo KacefJoseluis SamaniegoLuis Yez
19981999
2080
2000~2001
GDP
20706%20
802%2090
2003~2008
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208090
2070
Ffrench-Davis2005
Stiglitz2006
200220
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1989
Ocampo2005
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199412
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Rosales
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2002~2008
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198020084400
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1980~2008
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5255
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CLMXDOSVPEECCRUYVE
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Titelman2009
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1982~1983-1.8%
20021983
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8.3%
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2009hOrozco
2009
40
78
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20078.9%
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10
1990~2009
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34
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10 1950~2008
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-0.3-2.8
18
1998
2008
2009
20104.1
2010
18
Cimoli, Mario and Gabriel Porcile (2008), Volatility and Crisis

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CEPAL REVIEW
Osvaldo Rosales
FDI
Osvaldo Rosales
osvaldo.rosales@cepal.org
22
CEPAL REVIEW
2016PPP
GDP
2010
6%20114%2003~2008
30
Rosales2009
OECD
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CEPAL REVIEW
23
2009
2015
2010b
12001~2008
2015
1/420092/3
1/3
2010
IMF
Economic Perspectives20114
2017
10
2010
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200720272040
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24
CEPAL REVIEW
1 1979~2010
2 2000~2012
20114
CEPAL REVIEW
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26
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20101
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28
CEPAL REVIEW
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CEPAL REVIEW
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CEPAL REVIEW
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CEPAL REVIEW
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CheryGeely
8 2006~2010a
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2011415
36
CEPAL REVIEW
21
2010
2010
CEPAL REVIEW
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20101
11945
10
IIRSA
CCPIT
IDBCAF
2015
38
CEPAL REVIEW
2009
(a)
(b)
(c)
Osvaldo Rosales2009
1125www.cepal.org/comercio
CEPAL REVIEW
39
200811
2008
2007
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1990~2006
Roberto lvarez E.Eugenio Figueroa B.
Mara Pa Figueroa Z.Macarena Palma E.
1990~2006
79
Roberto lvarez E.
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Eugenio Figueroa B.
efiguero@econ.uchile.cl
Mara Pa Figueroa Z.
mfiguero@fen.uchile.cl
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mpalma@fen.uchile.cl
42
20
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2007Moreira
1990~200679
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Mario CimoliFilipa CorreiaDaniel Titelmann
Blzquez-LidoyRodrguezSantiso2006Claro
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2006DevlinEstevadeordalRodrguez-Clare2006
RosalesKuwayama2007
1990~2006
: 1990~2006
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0.31%20060.53%
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a 19902006
COMTRADE
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46
1990~2006
COMTRADE
1990~2006
47
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2007Rose
2004BlumGoldfarb
2006
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1990~2006 5
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15
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comtrade.un.org
19621990
1990~2006
48
Rose2004
BosworthCollins
CEPII
2003
http://www.cepii.org/anglaisgraph/bdd/bdd.htm
CEPIIB. BosworthS.M. CollinsThe empirics of growth: an update

3422003COMTRADE
(3)
190%
-1.98-1.47
Rose2004
1990~2006
49
10%10%
79
(4)
PerkinsSyrquin1989
Hanson
Xiang2004
35%
1990~2006
p < 0.01b p < 0.05c p < 0.1
1990~2006
50
WacziargHorn-
Welch20031990~2000
40%
73%
20%
20%
1990~2006
51
Leamer
E.E. LeamerThe Heckscher-Ohlin model in theory and practicePrinceton Studies in International Finance77
1995
1990~2006
52
http://go.worldbank.org/LGOXFTV550
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3422003COMTRADE
1990~2006
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1990~2006
55
Rhys Jenkins
2002~2008
15
17
Rhys Jenkins
R.O.Jenkins@uea.ac.uk
56
Lehmann
2007Cesa-Bianchi2009Caldern
2002~2008
2009
2005
II20065Streifel
2006ParkZhai2006
2006CheungMorin20072008
2002~2007
2006
20
2007
comtrade
2007
2/3
Lehmann
MorenoJaramillo2007
2007
57
15 1
20022007
2007152600
2/3
1/3
2008I.8GallagherPorzecanski2009
RosalesKuwayama200785
Streifel2006
200652
GDP
20052.2
CheungMorin
2007
20092.5
40%
20082008
2002
2.1E.08.II.D.21
2002~2007
CheungMorin20074
2002~2007
1/51/3
200549~50
20042008
2002
2070
2000
2090
1SITC0-468
200545
58
CheungMorin2007
200547~492070
2004
2002~2007
1/1027
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1995~20041
20064-3
2.8
2006
4-14-2
2002
21
Caldern2009
542002~2003
2005
22002~2007
2009
6163
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9021
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3199085%
200345%200574
59
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20092
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113%
SDR80%
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20065.1
20022007
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2007315
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Timmer20101
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60
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20071715
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61
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3
62
2.
2090
Ray2008
2090
2002
2002
2002
170200670
(COCHILCO)2008
2003~2006
WilliamsHarlyn Meade2007
40%
Ostensson2005
10%~25%
180%
2002~2006
OPEC
2002
20081.18
10%
20081.5
61995~2004
200%12%~37%
2006A.6
63
2007
2002
Ray2008
15
152007
410~730560
20071521%
7%
3/4
10%
2007
1217
4.5
~12
15
16%
340~610410~730
64
152007
2007
415
6172007
15
2002
20%~50%
65
7%~20%
10%
Jenkins2008
Devlin20062Ellis20092
Gonzlez2008
340
420~750
20074102002
66
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2000101
Eduardo Gitli
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Randall Arce
(CINPE),
marce@racsa.co.cr
70
199911
GATT
194823
1949
1985~1989
1986
20%Mody Wang1997294
19873
SEZs
10
2000
1999b
13
2~23
1990~1997GDP
11%
8%19981999
0.8%1.4%1999
BosworthOfer1995
2000b199671.2%
1
1998
51.8%
42.6%LinCai Li1998
19993
422
1997
19.6%7.3%
GNP42
7.2%5.8%
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31997
53.7%
:1997
71
22.7%20.2%18.2%
2000a
34.8%
12.8%9.8%7.4%
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1997
85%5
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1999b2~14
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1987
1995
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7
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2000
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GAO2000
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:
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1999
2000
1997
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9
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6090
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2000c
75
19992000519
1997
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2000c
Alexander Haig
Henry KissingerJames Baker
Warren Christopher
11
1999
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Lardy2000
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2090
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6
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1994
783.7%
NAFTA
63.9%
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1998
43.2%
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Gitli Arce2000a
14
78
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2005
16
20056
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17
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/:
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Gereffi2000
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1999b82
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Arias1999; Ziga1999Gereffi
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183.7%2.6%
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2005
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64
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201995
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21
1999c
229018908000
83
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a
1995~1998
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1997
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1998
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2005
23
199412
0.2%
238473301000
84
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Jorge Blzquez-LidoyJavier RodrguezJavier Santiso
620
1998~20043415
Jorge Blzquez-Lidoy
blazquezlidoy@telefonica.net
Javier Rodrguez
(BBVA)
javier.rgarcia@grupobbva.com
Javier Santiso
OECD
javier.santiso@oecd.org
86
20
1
GDP
13
209.5%
2040
1%6%
2003
45
2005
2004
200410
2005
50~60
2006
Santiago SanzJuan
20
Antonio RodrguezLuciana Taft
Jos Mara lvarez PalleteClaustre BajonaJean Christophe
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Luis Miguel CastillaCarlos ElizondoBarry EichengreenAntoni
EstevadeordalAlbert FishlowErnesto GabaAlicia GarcaHerreroAndrea GoldsteinRicardo HausmannBert Hofman
Louka KatseliNathaniel KarpSanjay LallRichard Lapper
Nicholas LardyBndicte LarreEduardo Lora
1000150
Jos Luis MachineaOsmel ManzanoDiane McCollum
YaoLi (2003)
Alejandro MiccoCharles OmanJim ONeillLuisa Palacios
420032004
Guillermo PerryNicolas PinaudPhilip Poole
(Eichengreen2004 2006)
Helmut ReisenGermn RosDani RodrikManuel Snchez
5Deutsche Bank(2004)the Bank of
David Taguas
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87
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Rumbaugh
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2003)
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(Lin2004LallWeiss2004)
198860%
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2005
2004101
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Enrique Iglesias
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Soler (2003)2003~2012
20036
(BBVA2003)
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2004
(BBVA2004)
6Angus Maddison
(Maddison1998)Carol ShiueWolfgang Keller
(2004a 2004b)
7Lora (2004a) IDB (2006)

8LAEBAwww.
laeba.org/index.cfm
88
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200112
10
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UNCTAD
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12www.intracen.org
90
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aitajttnij
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34
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1320032004
1520045400
140.94
92
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93
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17
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16Soler(2003)
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18www.intracen.org
95
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96
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21
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22ClarkDollarMicco (2004)
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GDP
1952~1972
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27Summers HestonPWT 6.1Heston
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29IanchovichinaMartin2001
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2005600
34
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35ECLAC2004a
36ECLAC2004b2003
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37MITHuang
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102
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39Garcia-HerreroSantabrbara2004
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40UNCTAD2004
103
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20
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Gerday
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2500
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Ricardo Hausmann
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41
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,Rodrik2006
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41
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(Jeffrey Sachs
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2004
IBM
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42Goldstein2004
104
1.1
CIa1998~2004b
a CI

2004
1.2
Intracen /2004
105
a US$/TEU

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ClarkDollarMicco2004
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109
Dani Rodrik
Dani Rodrik
dani-rodrik@harvard.edu
110
2090
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901982
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80
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141999
1999
Guillermo Perry
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Jorge DominguezNora Lustig
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111
14a
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1999
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23
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2080
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112
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1981
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Alan Garca
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10
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113
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Hall199820
Jacoby1998
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Rockoff1998
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Rockoff1998134
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2080
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Jacoby1998
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Glewwe
2070
114
2080
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Mrquez
Pages1998
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10
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Augusto Pinochet
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115
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19997
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JaggersGurr1995
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MrquezPages
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96
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1997
128
1990
Patricio Aylwin
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129
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131
Manuel R. Agosin
1980~2003
Manuel R. Agosin
managosin@econ.uchile.cl
132
1980~2003
Alfie UlloaAlejandro Tmola
Robert DevlinRoberto BouzasRicardo Ffrench-Davis
2005912
Economic growth with equity
20061218
2007Agosin
133
DVD
HausmannRodrik2003
Vettas
2000
HausmannKlinger2007
HausmannRodrik2006
Gerschenkron
1962
Hausmann
Rodrik2003
Romer1993
117
2080
AgosinBravo-
TL
HO
Ortega2007
Lewis1954
134
A mm
(1)
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Agosin1999AgosinBravo-Ortega
2007/
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2ij
16
GijHij
2
01
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6HausmannRodrik2003
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135
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HausmannRodrik
2003
(8)
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7
136
HausmannRodrikVelasco
2005
11
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Amsden1989
10
1980~200313
11981~2003
1991~2003
2080
111213
1990
2910
11
12
10
132004~2007
137
/1981~2003
[] http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/
1991~2003
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138
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UNCTAD
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141
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1980~2003
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142
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[] http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/UNCTAD
144
a III3IV4IV
45
HausmannKlinger2007
20
20
145
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20
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2080
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21
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171
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2070
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4Jara
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2007
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20062007
70
2004
2004
174
20037~ 20046 = 100)
175
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20075
2007
2008
5200657
200779
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2004
20085
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910
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67
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2007
200920076000
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2008
20043.5
20089
2009
6BustilloVelloso (2009)
176
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177
2070
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GDP1
90
2008c
JimnezTromben
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IDB
2008IzquierdoRomero
Talvi2008
Ocampo2007
2003
2008GDP5%
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20
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2008
2007
20087
2007
7IDB20083
2008b4
2008
178
2000
2006
2006
179
2003
8GDP
76
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20
Farrell
10%20
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8035%200750%
Saez2009
10%50%
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10%1996~2007
40%49%40%50%
PickettySaez2003
20
Asif IslamAmparo Palacios
187
JerzmanowskiNabar2008
PhilipponReshef2009
1.
30
20
1/5
Lpez
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2.
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205040%21
20%
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1947~2007
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93872001http://www.internationaldata.org/
189
1900~2004
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30
LpezStocking2009
(1)
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de Janvry1975
20
NIC
SokoloffEngerman2000AcemogluJohnson
Robinson2001Khor2000
20
Krugman1994LallAlbaladejo2004
Noland1997
3.
NIC
190
PPIa1913~2007
4
207080
(2)
2080
2080
Bosworth
Collins2008P anagariya2006Lpez
2008LallAlbaladejo2004
20
22070
Lpez2008
2%
3Rodrik200720
LevinsonTaylor2008
191
1990~2008
10
5
4
20
8%3
192
213500
1/3
1.11
50%
20002000~2007
20%2080
5%
4.
2090521-
-50%
5%
2090
108%~10%
67
20
1980~2006
EIA
193
USDA
NGO
6
Da Motta20031991
Simpson
HuberRuitenbeckda Motta1998
TomanAyres2005
EngelLpez2008
194
2003~2007
200625%
20092010
20
BohringerLoschel2003
LoschelZhang2002
The Kyoto Protocol
CO2
195
1.
2080
2.
25
CaprioDemirguc-KuntKane2008
Sloan1997910
2080
AutorKatzKearney2006
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2003Carddi Nardo2002
GordonDew-Becker2007
KaplanRauh2009
1%
2080
196
2%
0.3%
198054%2006
5%15.5
47%20%
29
5%4%
5%
17%22.5%2007
3.
4003.5
1.5%1980~2006
55%50%
10%8%
10%20%
27%
30
2080
4.820075.211
1967~2005
10 1961~2001
WIIDUNU-WIDER
11 1967~2007
2007
197
198
BooneGirouardWanner
2001McConnellMosserPerez- Quiros
8
1999
1/8
202
208045%2004120%
2%~2.5%
Taylor2008
0.3%
4.
20
1.220800.45
20%
199
2005~2007
8%~10%
10
BosworthCollins2008
2003~2007
CPI
20041
200441.25%2007
5%12
10
12 2001~2009
200
1929
2020
20
201
35%
20506091%2009
2002080
60%
18
2080
11
11
202
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Tavneet Suri
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1UNDP
UNDP19909
10
2BerryUrrutia1976Berry
ed.1988
1. A
207
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HD
GDP
GNP
31991
208
SchultzTansel1993
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Riddell 1995
Wood1994
AinsworthBeegleNyamete1995
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Psacharopoulos199248
8AB
AB
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6Barro1991BarroLee1993ab
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Rana1988Edwards1993
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8AlesinaRodrik1994AlesinaPerotti1994
5Behrman19931996
PerssonTabellini1994BirdsallRoss Sabot1995
3.
209
1970~1992
B
35~76
1960 ~1992A
1962~1982
A1:
A2
A3
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1970~1992
A
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1.75
B1
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B3
210
1960 ~ 2000
21960~2000
UNDP
HDI9
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85
UNDP
2001
211
2080
80
80
80
1960~20003
1960 ~ 2000
212
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UNDP
1990
23
20
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1960~2000
AB
10
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10
A1960~2000a,b
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a 1970~1980

70
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UNDP
B1960~2000
a,b,c
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70
10%
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213
214
4%19902%
40
1980
20
38%199019%
19303/4Thorp1998
20602070Salvador Allende
2060
Raczynski1987
20%95%6~14
19777%19845%
81%Raczynski
1987
19727.3%
1.6%
19891.7%
Augusto Pinochet
Augusto Pinochet1973
20606%20
Augusto Pinochet
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20600.47
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1978~19820.51 1986
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2060
1990~1999
2090
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195020%
215
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2070
2080
2060
1988
70
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7%3%
2060~70
5%~6%
196076%198145%
0.5~0.6
6%
Maddison1992
2/320~2420%
20
2060
60
8198010
2070
13% 1999
18%5%
4.5%
2060
2060
1960~1980
3%905%
5966
2060
7.4%5.3%66%
671980731995~2000
83%106%
7660
120%23%49%
19606.8%1970
5%14%
6.2%19801.9%1999
1.2%
2080
2080
1983~19886%
5%
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198636%80
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20601/3
1960~1999
2080
NAFTA
2090
19941998
6769
7577
901.25%(80
Thorp1998
)90
1970Luis Echeverra
1989~1993
216
90%79%
3.2%5.4%
2090
PRONASOL
90-0.6%
80+0.3%90
Solidaridad
9075
90
86%98%
1995
90%2%
PRONOSOL
2060
206070
90
8090
196060
9.9%1966
206070
1970~1975
6%
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197512.2%6065%
80%
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19706886%
1975~1983
Thorp1998
70
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80
2070
80
80
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1980~198630%1984
19886.4%
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2090
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1986~1990
4.2%
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90
6470
1995
5.7%
217
3.1%1990
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Anastasio Somoza2060
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8040%
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1960
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20
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70
2070
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1990 ~1999
1979
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1960~2000
Berry1998
AB
1960
218
20
80
90
80
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2060
1975~1990
2090
21
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1.B
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Sen1985
ECLAC
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13%7100
32005a
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2007d
15
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1
16
Irma ArriagadaReynaldo BajrajChristoph Ernst

Ernesto EspnolaJuan Carlos FeresMarco GalvnMartn
HopenhaynArturo LenFernando MedinaPablo Villatoro

Jorge RodrguezNora RuediJrgen Weller
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1.
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2007c
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2.
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Islam2004Osmani
2002
2003
20078%20060.6
2007b2007
2003~2007
1990
2007d
1700
2007b
200548.5%
2006
4
5
2006
1990~2005
224
18
2005a,b
E/WAP
Arriagada2004
2007a
200537%
2005b
20%
61%
1/5
76%
4.2~6.2
80%2
2.1~4
Sunkel2006
1990~2005
225
2 182005a
a
2008
YL/E
YNL/N
(1)
Y/N
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226
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EAPE/EAP=1-
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Navarrete20058
1990~2005
(3)
UthoffVeraRuedi
2006
2006
8
9KakwaniNeriSon2006 1995~2004
1990~2005
227
11
10
209016
53
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1990
2.
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1990
2005
10
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2006
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1990~2005
228
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1989/1995~2001/2005
1990~2005
229
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3Y/NYL/EY/NE/N
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VAP=[((PF-PI)/PI)*100]/AVAP
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19891020027
1990~2005
230
16
1989/1995~2001/2005
a
19891020027
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12
123
2005
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1990~2005
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1990~2005
231
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3.
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16a1990~2005b
19902005
1997
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233
2010
13
2015
2020
2090
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(Mason Lee2004)
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CILAS
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Convergencia regional: una revisin del caso
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1997
241
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1998~1999
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1995
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2002
0.7%
2090
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1.0061.023
244
1983~19871989~1992
19871992
1994~1998
19985
1980~2004
1980~2004
1980~2004
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248
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249
III 1980~2004
250
1980~2004
IV
251
252
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