fallouts of the 2008-10 global economic downturn, and more to do with longstanding, structural labor and employment challenges that have emerged and accumulated over the past three decades. -UAE Minister of Labour, H.E. . Saqr Ghobash Despite phenomenal economic growth, Emirati participation levels in the private sector remain extremely low The UAE has witnessed significant growth over the past 2 decades, with GDP increasing 7 fold over that period i . Sustained efforts have led to a diversified economy, with the oil and gas sector now accounting for only 33% of GDP (as opposed to 43% in 2001 ii ). This growth has not come without its challenges and main among these is the lack of integration of the Emirati workforce into the private sector. Despite various Emiratisation initiatives introduced by federal and local governments, the bridge linking the Emirati workforce with private sector businesses remains narrow. On the one hand, Emiratis generally favour a career in the stable and comfortable public sector, and on the other, the private sector overwhelmingly perceives higher economical value in foreign resources. Emiratis currently occupy only 43,000 of the 2.2 Million (Figure 1) jobs in the private sector. The public sector, traditionally the largest employer of Emiratis, employs 495,000 Emiratis. Recent economic challenges have curtailed the public sectors ability to recruit, contributing to a 14% iii unemployment rate among Emiratis today 3 . The severity of the issue increases significantly due to the fact approximately 210,000 Emiratis are expected to join the workforce by 2019, representing a 34.3% iv cumulative increase (Figure 2). Figure 2: Projected growth of Emirati workforce In this paper, we explore the causes behind the extremely weak participation of Emiratis in the private sector. Our analysis is based on secondary research, internal forecasts, focus groups and interviews with students, 823,700 722,614 613,320 34.3% 17.8% 2019 2015 2011 6.0% 1.7% Expatriates 14.9% 3.8% 64.6% 16.7% Emiratis 84.9% 7.4% Public Sector Quasi-government Private Sector Other Figure 1: Employment rates segmented by sector Most companies are just filling numbers to avoid government fines -Emirates National Development Program For Emiratization to succeed, it must come from the heart. It should be inherent at the essence of the organization - Al-Futtaim Group employees and employers in various disciplines and industries. Emiratization lost in translation The majority of private sector companies misinterpret Emiratization, treating it as a percentage based performance target. Emiratisation is rarely recognized as a credible talent strategy, with even fewer companies offering long term career progression schemes tailored for Emiratis. Whilst we could not access quantitative data for this, it was clearly reflected in our focus groups and interviews with leading private sector organizations in the UAE. We found that most companies (especially those bound by quotas- banks, insurance providers and commercial companies with 50 or more employees) employ Emiratis to meet quotas and avoid penalties. Other organizations, while acting in good faith, lack the necessary capabilities and expertise for sound career planning. This results in private sector companies dealing with Emiratization as a cost for doing business in the UAE. It also leads to high attrition rates among Emirati employees who feel isolated special cases in such a private sector environment. The private sector job market is smaller than it appears Social prestige, cultural tradition and religious beliefs create substantial barriers for certain types of jobs among Emiratis. Our analysis reflects that while the nominal size of the job market in the private sector is an estimated 2.2 million, 56.3% of jobs lie in industries that are not favored by Emiratis. For instance, being associated with a hotel or restaurant that serves alcohol places any job in that establishment off limits for Emiratis. The real number of opportunities free from such issues open to Emiratis closer to 1.2 million only v (Figure 3). Industry % of Total Jobs % of Employed Emiratis Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing 3.8 0.6 Activities of Private Households as Employers and Undifferentiated Production Activities of Private Households 13.1 0.8 Manufacturing 7.7 1.7 Construction 12.3 1.0 Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles and Personal and Household Goods 15.4 1.9 Hotels and Restaurants 4.0 0.0 Total Jobs 56.3% (1,238,600) 6% (32,280) Figure 3: Emirati participation rates in least favored industries False expectations Our research reflects that generous compensation packages and lesser working Cultural and social barriers exist when selecting a job - Dubai Events and Promotions Establishment Quite a few Emiratis walk in with unrealistic demands expecting similar pay to what the public sector offers - Du Emiratis are just not willing to work in shifts - DUBAL hours in the public sector had contributed to creating an expectation gaps between the Emiratis exploring opportunities in the private sector and potential employers. This is especially true at the entry level positions, with undergraduates expecting AED 17,000 to AED 20,000 monthly pay, compared to the AED 4,000 to AED 10,000 most private sector entities are prepared to offer prospective employees of similar qualifications (Figure 4) vi . Figure 4: Wage distribution across sectors Furthermore, the average number of working hours in the private sector is up to 30% more than those required in the public sector (Figure 5) vii , discouraging interest in the private sector. We expect that as the number of Emiratis joining the workforce increases over the medium term, pressure on the supply side will force employee expectations downwards and narrowing of this gap. Figure 5: Distribution of actual hours worked, across sectors Skills mismatch Despite policy makers steering the country towards a knowledge-based economy, as evident in Vision 2021s United in Knowledge theme, published figures suggest that (in 2011) only 24.6% of Emirati students are enrolled in science and technology majors that are considered critical to support a drive towards a knowledge based economy (Figure 6) viii . The mismatch between the type of jobs that will be created and the type of skills Emirati students are pursuing today could increase the Emirati unemployment levels further. This is reinforced by the high unemployment rates among the young Emirati age groups (Figure 7) ix . In addition, as government initiatives towards building a knowledge-based economy bear fruit, the reliance on an expatriate workforce will ironically increase. 16.4% 29.9% 27.4% 19.3% A E D
3 , 0 0 0 - A E D
7 , 9 9 9 29.9% 23.0% 11.5% 2.3% A E D
1 , 3 0 0 - A E D
2 9 9 9 27.4% 23.8% 27.6% 1.6% A E D
< 1 , 3 0 0 19.3% 15.9% 3.9% 1.8% A E D
1 8 , 0 0 0
+ 6.8% 26.0% 22.7% 41.3% A E D
8 , 0 0 0 - A E D
1 7 , 9 9 9 Private Quasi-government Local government Federal government M o n t h l y
W a g e s 52.8 45.6 44.0 40.8 Private Quasi-government Federal Government Local Government Hours Worked (Actual) 4.4% 8.5% 16.5% 5.3% 11.1% 27.4% 1.5% Media and Communications 0.7% Agriculture and Food Education Human and Social Sciences Others Basic Education Sharia and Law Business and Econimics 11.0% Information Technology 8.6% Engineering 3.8% Medicine and Health Services 1.2% Sciences Knowledge-Based Economy Areas (24.6%) Age Group 15 - 19 36.1% 20 - 24 11.3% 25 - 34 3.9% 35 - 44 2.0% 45 - 54 1.5% 55 - 64 2.3% 65 + 4.1% Unemployment is highest among the younger age groups Most Emiratis graduate with a degree in support function; hence they work in the support departments- Du Support jobs and the Public Sector Irony While the public sector does employ most Emiratis, it is not doing the Emirati workforce a favor by staffing most in support jobs. A case study we executed at a representative government entity (name is withheld due to confidentiality requirements) underscores this finding. We found that only 42.8% of Emirati employees at the entity took on core functions, out of which over one- third occupy technical jobs not requiring higher education. In addition, while only 1 in 5 core jobs was occupied by an Emirati, the figure stood closer to 9 in 10 for support jobs. We also found that support jobs represented 23% of total jobs at the entity, a deviation from the general standards of 5% to 10% (Figure 8) x for the sector. Figure 6: Distribution of Emirati students by Major area of study Figure 7: Unemployment of Emiratis by age group Figure 8: Job distribution between Emiratis and Expats This trend is likely to have two negative implications. First, Emiratis lose out on an opportunity to develop the skills and competencies relevant to core jobs, denying them a meaningful opportunity to participate in the planned knowledge-based economy and limiting the realization of their true potential. Second, the knowledge and expertise created in the UAE remains largely in the hands of expats and is prone to being lost as expats relocate to home countries or elsewhere. Conclusion and recommendations As the Emirati workforce is set to grow, a significant shift in thinking is urgently required. First, it is important for policy makers to define and communicate the fundamentals of Emiratization to stakeholders at all levels. This should serve to provide a uniform interpretation of what Emiratization really means and what it is really supposed to achieve. In the absence of a common language among policy makers, the public sector and the private sector, the progress of Emiratization related initiatives will continue to suffer. Second, government incentives and other interventions should nudge the private sector to revamp their talent strategies to include Emiratis and focus on the development of Emiratis, rather than merely the hiring of Emiratis. A recent initiative by the Sheikh Khalifa Fund supported the development and induction of Emiratis into the private sector by sharing the financial investments associated with employee development. In addition, the National Human Resource Development and Employment Authority (Tanmia) has been successfully contributing to Emiratization by fostering the development of Emiratis specialized trainings and facilitating job placements. These are steps in the right direction and should act as an incentive for both large businesses and SMEs to hire and nurture Emiratis. Third, the real job market size can be expanded to make more jobs socially acceptable for Emiratis without overstepping cultural and religious sensitivities. This can be achieved by building awareness on what certain jobs entail and by encouraging supportive environments in sectors currently not favored by Emiratis. The Private sector should be engaged as a partner to create an attitudinal shift by holding informative programs and showcasing Emirati role models. Fourth, career orientation programs need be adopted at schools to make students aware regarding the opportunities presented by a progressively knowledge-based economy. Such initiatives can help direct students to pursue the knowledge and skill requirements for a career in such an economy from a young age. Finally, government scholarship programs should be tailored to encourage enrolment in studies that are aligned with the job market requirements of the UAE economy. This may result in students opting to study for careers (such as scientists, bio-medical professionals and/or engineers) that are more relevant in a knowledge-based economy. Expat 5,984 3.8% 96.2% Emirati 3,295 57.2% 42.8% Number of Employees within a Government Entity Core Support TCO Management Consulting is an initiative born out of the need for first-class consulting support in the delivery and implementation of strategic initiatives across all forms of government. We provide advisory services to public sector organizations in the UAE and MENA region. Through our precise focus on the quality of service delivery, capability development, and knowledge management, TCO aspires to be a Strategic Partner in Public Sector Innovation. This White Paper was prepared by: Ahmad Ghannoum, a Principal Consultant with TCO based in Dubai. Hassan Ali Habib Ali, an Analyst with TCO based in Dubai. For more information please contact: Ahmad Ghannoum, +971 (0)50 189 7232 or ahmad.ghannoum@tcoconsulting.com Visit http://www.tcoconsulting.com to learn more about TCO Management Consulting Copyright 2012 TCO Management Consulting is an initiative born out of the need for first-class consulting support in the delivery and implementation of strategic initiatives across all forms of government. We provide advisory services to public sector organizations in the UAE and MENA region. Through our precise focus on the quality of service delivery, capability development, and knowledge management, TCO aspires to be a Strategic Partner in Public Sector Innovation. This White Paper was prepared by: Ahmad Ghannoum, a Principal Consultant with TCO based in Dubai. Hassan Ali Habib Ali, an Analyst with TCO based in Dubai. For more information please contact: Ahmad Ghannoum, +971 (0)50 189 7232 or ahmad.ghannoum@tcoconsulting.com Visit http://www.tcoconsulting.com to learn more about TCO Management Consulting Copyright 2012 TCO Management Consulting is an initiative born out of the need for first-class consulting support in the delivery and implementation of strategic initiatives across all forms of government. We provide advisory services to public sector organizations in the UAE and MENA region. Through our precise focus on the quality of service delivery, capability development, and knowledge management, TCO aspires to be a Strategic Partner in Public Sector Innovation. This White Paper was prepared by: Ahmad Ghannoum, a Principal Consultant with TCO based in Dubai. Hassan Ali Habib Ali, an Analyst with TCO based in Dubai. For more information please contact: Ahmad Ghannoum, +971 (0)50 189 7232 or ahmad.ghannoum@tcoconsulting.com Visit http://www.tcoconsulting.com to learn more about TCO Management Consulting Copyright 2012 References The following sources of information and data-points were used to inform our thinking, and the statistics utilized in this document. i World Bank Development Indicators, 1990-2009 ii UAE economic growth report; http://www.uaeinteract.com/docs/UAE_may_see_3.3_real_GDP_growth/46586.htm iii UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 iv TCO analysis; UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 v UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 vi UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 vii UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 viii Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research 2011 ix UAE National Bureau of Statistics- Labour Force Survey 2009 x Source: UAE Ministry of Health 2011