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Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani IInd Semester 2009-10 Comprehensi e !

"amination #Closed Boo$% &&'C C111 #Pro(a(ility and Statistics% )ate* 0+-0,-2010 #-riday% .a"/ .ar$s* 90 .a"/ Time* 1,0 mins
0ote* &ttempt Part B and Part C in the separate ans1er sheets pro ided/ &ll su(parts of a 2uestion should (e attempted together/ The ans1ers should (e precise and up to the point/ 3se usual notation and sym(ols as and 1hen re2uired/ &ll the necessary data are pro ided at the end of the 2uestion paper/ )efine the e ents and random aria(les as and 1hen necessary/ Part B 1. (a) A construction company employs 2 sales engineers. Engineer 1 does the work in estimating cost for 70% of o!s !id !y the company. Engineer 2 does the work for "0% of o!s !id !y the company. #t is known that the error rate for engineer 1 is such that 0.02 is the pro!a!ility of an error when he does the work$ whereas the pro!a!ility of an error in the work of engineer 2 is 0.0%. &uppose a !id arri'es and a serious error occurs in estimating cost. (ecide which engineer most likely su!mitted the !id !ased on respecti'e pro!a!ilities. )ustify your answer. 456 (!) &uppose that$ on a'erage$ 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical error in preparing his or her income ta* return. #f 10$000 forms are selected at random and e*amined$ find the pro!a!ility that at most 2 of the forms contain an error. 4+6 2. (a) +et X !e a gamma random 'aria!le with parameters , . -hen using definition$ find E ( X )$ E ( X 2 ) and hence find Var ( X ) . 4787816 (!) A chemical reaction is run in which the usual yield is 70 % . A new process has !een de'ised that should impro'e the yield. .roponents of new process claim that it produces a !etter yield than the old one more than /0 % of time. -he new process is tested 00 times. +et X denote the num!er of trials in which yield e*ceeds 70 % and p !e the pro!a!ility of an increased yield. (i) 1hich distri!ution does X follow2 (ii) +et the claim !e accepted if X 73 . 1hat is the pro!a!ility that claim is accepted if p is really only 0./ 2 (use normal appro*imation). 42876 X X ". (a) +et 1 and 2 !e independent !inomial random 'aria!les with means % and 2 and 'ariances
% % and $ respecti'ely. #f Y = 3 X 1 3 X 2 + "0 $ then find moment generating function for Y . " "

(oes Y follow !inomial distri!ution2 )ustify your answer. 4+6 (!) 4etal conduits or hollow pipes are used in electrical wiring. #n testing 15inch pipes$ these data are o!tained on the outside diameter (in inches) of the pipe6 1.21$ 1.1/$ 1.20$ 1.22$ 1.10$ 1.2"$ 1.17$ 1.0/. Assume that sampling is from normal distri!ution with mean and 'ariance 2 . i. 7ind un!iased estimates for and 2 . ii. 7ind /3% confidence inter'al on the mean outside diameter of pipes of this type. 456 ..-.8.

P&9T C %. -he oint density function for continuous random 'aria!le (9$ :) is gi'en !y Page 1 of 3

2 x+" y ) $ x 0$ y 0 ;e ( f XY ( x$ y ) = $ e.w 0

7ind (a). P <0 X + Y 1= (!). 7ind marginal densities for 9 and : respecti'ely. Are 9 and : independent random 'aria!les2 )ustify your answer. 1Y =2= (c). P <0 X 4,8:876 3. (a) 7or a gi'en data set * 3 1 2 " % 30 3 3 3 3 y 1 1 2 2 " %3 0 0 0 3 2 2 xy x y 2 and i. 7ind the 'alue of $ ii. 1rite the normal e>uations and estimate the e>uation of line of regression of : on *. iii. 7ind the 'alue of sample correlation coefficient for the a!o'e data. 4;878;6 (!) &achin -endulkar scores runs in -520 league match with following discrete pro!a!ility density function. Guns (9) 30 "3 23 13 %3 10 f(*) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.13 0 0 0 3 2 &imulate the score of &achin -endulkar for four league matches using following three digit random num!ers /7;$ 00/$ 200$ and 030. ?ence estimate his a'erage score. <,6 ;. A low5noise transistor for use in computing products is !eing de'eloped. #t is claimed that the mean noise le'el will !e !elow the ".00 d@ le'el of products currently in use. (Assume that noise le'el is normally distri!uted). i. &et up the appropriate null and alternati'e hypotheses for 'erifying the claim. ii. 7ind the critical point for //% confidence test !ased on a sample of siAe 20. Bsing the 'alues 2.2 and 0.00 of sample mean and sample standard de'iation$ respecti'ely$ to test null hypothesis against alternati'e hypothesis defined in (i) at C 0.01. )ustify. 4+6 7. (a) A market research study is to !e conducted among users of a particular type of computer system. ?ow many users should !e sampled to estimate the percentage of users who plan to add terminals to within 3 percentage points with /7% confidence2 (!) A new computer network is !eing designed. -he makers claim that it is not compati!le with /;% of the e>uipment already in use. i. &et up the appropriate null and alternati'e hypotheses needed to support this claim. ii. A sample of %00 e>uipments is tested$ and "/0 of these e>uipments re>uire changes. -hat is$ they are not compati!le with the new network. Dan ? 0 !e re ected at /0% confidence2 )ustify. 4;8,6
)&T& P9'<I)!)6 .(EF 0."3) C 0.;";0$ .(EF 0./") C 0.02"0$ .(EF 1.12) C 0.0;0;$ .(EF 1.00) C 0./;//$ .(EF 1.0/) C 0./70;$ .(EF 2.17) C 0./030$ .(EF 2.10) C 0./03%$ .(EF 2."2) C 0./0/0$ .(EF 2."") C 0.//01$ -or 19 degrees of freedom* t0.03$1/ C 2.0;1$ t0.01$1/ C 2.3"/$ t0.003$1/ C 2.0;1. -or 20 degrees of freedom* t0.03$20 C 2.0%3$ t0.01$20 C 2.320$ t0.003$20 C 2.0%3. -or + degrees of freedom* t0.023$7 C 2.";3$ t0.03$7 C 1.0/3. -or 5 degrees of freedom* t0.023$0 C 2."0;$ t0.03$0 C 1.0;0. Page 2 of 3

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