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2012

2012

ISBN: 978-92-9092-662-7
: RPT124592
CIP


(Mandaluyong City)2012
1. 2. 3. I.

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City


1550 Metro Manila, Philippines
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iv

vi

vii

vii

vii

viii

13

27

39

46

49

iii

010 2011

100 72.5

17
2010 2011
62 2020
4 6,080 2020

2010 20%
1.37 2,150
7.32 1.5

iv

( )


1
TA 4912-PRC
2TA 7261-PRC
3
20112015
TA 7484-PRC

2030 2009
2009

. -

vi

2012 3 15
1

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IRBM

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PRC

US

vii

2011 5 25
50 40%

viii

ix

1. S. 2010

20%

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1
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4
5
6
7

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xi

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1. 2010

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1,422

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424

2.
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4.

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3,000
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18 2030

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2011

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2020
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7.

AQUASTAT J. 2009


8.

9. 2030 2009
10.
, 4 22
11. 2011

12. 2030 2009

80

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590
580
570
560
550
540
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60
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40
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20
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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2009
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15. 2010

20092010

54%

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2007 3

80

130 72.5

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2,156

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17

45

16. 2010
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17. 2007
18.

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230

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2011
2000

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19. 2011
4 22

13

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1949 1,000

130

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206 1949

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15

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1970

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20

20

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22

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80

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19761990 1951

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47
21. 90%
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7 13-17
22. C.A. Sullivan C. Huntingford2009
http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09

23. 2009
5(2)
24. 1996

16

5,464 9
5,000

13% 3% 1.5

1997 750
1999 1987

11% 383 345


1,950 11,230
1,760 10%
12,470
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2010

1987 2000 338


12,700 1,990

32.7 25.5

1.

X. Cai, Y.-C. E. Yang, , C. Ringler2010


7

2.

D. Pietz M. Giordano2009 F. Molle, P. Wester


CAB

3.

East Bridge
J. Ma2004

17

2011 8 26 547

18

2005
20 90 2006 9
9 6
NOAA 1948
12 12 NOAA 60

75% 7
101.6 25.4 66%
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10%

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WFP
IFAD

2008
592

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5 31 8 31
230 9 1 9 15 15
482

19

( )

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2.

2
D. 2007

30%

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2.

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2009 3.79

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11,986 2008

5.

2,368 280

6.

2008 180

7.

3,150 ( 490 )

8.

2008 2,070
320 26

20042007

80 27

6,600
7% 330 ( 50 )
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360 ) 1990
1%

195pp
25. L. JiangJ. Wang L. Liu2008
2009
26. 2010

27. 2009

20

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2010
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21

2011 9 1 1,260 ,
.2011 9 8 1,260
624 1,454

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2,080 ( 330

) 2,150 ( 340)

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2011
TA 7261-PRC

ii


iii

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2009

1 /

30

30. S. 2010

27

28

ii
iii

iv

2030

31

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20112015

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31. 2030 2009
32.
33. 2011
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11

2010
TA 4912-PRC

31

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30%~40%

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1.5

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3
4


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210,000

10,000 m 3/yr

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150,000
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90,000
2005

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200 2030 240

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1. = /
2. 2008 5
6
2011

TA 7261-PRC

42. 2004

36

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)

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44.

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1,532

2000

46

45

63%

TA 4912-PRC
45. 2010
46.

39

40

2010

TA 4912-PRC

41

42

30

47

10

TA 4912-PRC
47. 2010

43

40

7% 3.5% 2.5%

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1,000

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, 50%
150 ( 20 )

10 ( 1.6 )

19

7%

44

2010
TA7261-PRC

: 2010
TA7261-PRC
2010 TA
4912-PRC

45

200 (

30 ) 89.2
170 (14 30 )

4!!
8,000
7,000

10,000 m 3/yr

6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1995

2000

3%

2005

2010
0%
5%

2015

2020

2025

2030

1%
5%

m3/yr = /
2010TA4912-PRC

46

47

2011 7 31
18.7

1.
2. /
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
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