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CHAPTER 9 DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Table 2 and Figure 1 allow us to compare the predictions of this model with the actual data. You can see that the predictions become quite inaccurate after about 30 years and they underestimate by a factor of more than 2 in 2000.
TABLE 2 P

Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Model 1650 1750 1856 1969 2088 2214 2349 2491 2642 2802 2972

Population 1650 1750 1860 2070 2300 2560 3040 3710 4450 5280 6080

6000

Population (in millions) P=1650e 0.005884t

20

40

60

80

100

Years since 1900 FIGURE 1 A possible model for world population growth

Another possibility for estimating k would be to use the given population for 1950, for instance, instead of 1910. Then
|||| In Section 1.5 we modeled the same data with an exponential function, but there we used the method of least squares.

P50 1650e 50k 2560 k 1 2560 ln 0.0087846 50 1650

The estimate for the relative growth rate is now 0.88% per year and the model is Pt 1650e 0.0087846t The predictions with this second model are shown in Table 3 and Figure 2. This exponential model is more accurate over a longer period of time, but it too lags behind reality in recent years.
TABLE 3 P

Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Model 1650 1802 1967 2148 2345 2560 2795 3052 3332 3638 3972

Population 1650 1750 1860 2070 2300 2560 3040 3710 4450 5280 6080

6000

Population (in millions)

P=1650e 0.0087846t

20

40

60

80

100

Years since 1900 FIGURE 2

Another model for world population growth

SECTION 9.4 EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AND DECAY

615

EXAMPLE 2 Use the data in Table 1 to model the population of the world in the second half of the 20th century. Use the model to estimate the population in 1993 and to predict the population in the year 2010.
SOLUTION Here we let t 0 in the year 1950. Then the initial-value problem is

dP kP dt and the solution is

P0 2560

Pt 2560e kt Lets estimate k by using the population in 1960: P10 2560e 10k 3040 k 1 3040 ln 0.017185 10 2560

The relative growth rate is about 1.7% per year and the model is Pt 2560e 0.017185t We estimate that the world population in 1993 was P43 2560e 0.01718543 5360 million The model predicts that the population in 2010 will be P60 2560e 0.01718560 7179 million The graph in Figure 3 shows that the model is fairly accurate to date, so the estimate for 1993 is quite reliable. But the prediction for 2010 is riskier.
P 6000

Population (in millions)

P=2560e 0.017185t

FIGURE 3

A model for world population growth in the second half of the 20th century

20

40

Years since 1950