2013 1 8

SAC
S0080511010005

SAC
S0080511060003

lizy@cicc.com.cn

jiaodi@cicc.com.cn

2011 51.27%

1920

1960 1975 GDP

70 GDP
GDP

75%

20
1970

90

50 1920 23.7% 2010 6

6.5% 90

50%1952~1954 1951
1953 60%~70%1960~1968

80%2001

2013 1 8

...................................................................................................................................................... 4
........................................................................................................... 4
............................................................................................................... 4
...................................................................................... 5
.......................................................................................................................... 6
...................................................................................................................................................... 8
............................................................................................................................. 8
............................................................................................................................. 8
.................................................................................................................... 12
............................................................................................................. 15
.................................................................................................................... 18
......................................................................................................... 19
........................................................................................................................ 23
......................................................................................................... 24

1 ....................................................................7
2
..............................7
3 ..............................................................................................................................8
4.......................................................................................9
5 .......................................................................................................................................10
6
.........................10
7........................................................10
81961~1975 19% ................................................................................... 11
9 ................................ 11
101975 ............................................................................................ 11
11 GDP
.........................................................12
121960~1975 GDP ...............................................12
131975 GDP .................................................13
14 70 GDP .................................................13
15 .....................................14
16 ...................................................................................................................14
17 ..................................14
18 GDP
................................................................15
19 .....................................................................................................................................17
20 ........................................................................17
21 .....................................................................................................................................17
22 ..................................................................................................................................18
23 ...........................................................................18
24 ..............................................................................................................................19
25 GDP .....................................20
26 ..............................................................................................................................20
27 15% ...................................................................21
28 60% ................21
29 70%................................................................21
30 .....................................................................................................22
31 80% ......................................22
32 .....................................................................................................23
33 90
1973
....................................................................................................................................................................23

2013 1 8
34 2001
2002 ..........................24
35 2001 ...................................................24
3680 .................................................................................25
37 ...........................................................................25
38 80 ...............................................................................................25

2013 1 8

2012 9 19

1996 2012 8 17
2002 2011 1.35
2011 69079 51.27% 1955
50%
12

1998 63% 2010 76.8% 36.9%

23.2%2011
6977 3.1:1
27% 18% 45%
3.5 6 300
3000 16

1980

2007

1930

50%
16% 50%
30
1978 13.34% 2003 7%2006 140

2013 1 8
2006
2009 7253 9.5%
2003

2011 2.66 2.25 2.72 34.8

29.535.7 101 2011
515 165 32% 16.4% 13.4%
2001
2010 2.292.191.89/ 1.4

4000
300 1 3 58.1%
3.5 40.3% 48.1%
11.6%

1980

1990
6070

8090

2011
5%2010

1) 2) 3) 4)

2013 1 8

2013 1 8

%
100
90
80
70

GDP $

60
50
40
30
0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Haver Analytics

2
%

%
100

90

90

85

80

80

70

60

75

50

70

40

65

30

60

20
10

50

1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

55

1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

95

2013 1 8

37.8 338 /

2011 91.1% 3

14,000

100
90

12,000

80

10,000

70

8,000

60
50

6,000

40

4,000

30
20

2,000

10
1898
1903
1908
1913
1918
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1947
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011

1868~1920 19
1890
47% 13.6%
1

1904 525 1920 603

4
30 1920
53.8% 20.5% 23.7%
1898 534 1920 1010
1920 83 18%

2013 1 8
1920~1955 1920
1955 GDP 26.5% 33.7% 32.9% 19.2%

1953

1950
254 1960 561 51955 56.1
58.8
1955 56.1%

1955 ~1975 1956 1970 GDP

8% 6
1955 19.2% 1975 5.3% 1955 33.7% 1970 43.1%
7
1961~1975 19% 8
40 60

1975 75%

1975
2010 73.6%
9
10
GDP
11

6500000

16

2008

2000

1992

1984

1976

11

1968

4000000

1960

12

1952

4500000

1944

13

1936

5000000

1928

14

1920

5500000

1912

15

1904

6000000

2013 1 8

14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005

6
GDP
12%

800

10%
8%

100
90

700

80

600

70

6%

500

60

4%

400

50

300

40

2%

30

200
0%

20

19
56
~1
96
0
19
61
~1
96
5
19
66
~1
97
0
19
71
~1
97
5
19
76
~1
98
0
19
81
~1
98
5
19
86
~1
99
0
19
91
~1
99
5
19
96
~2
00
0
20
01
~2
00
5
20
06
~2
01
0

100

10
0

0
1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005

Haver Analytics

%
80

80%

45

70

70%

60

60%

30

50

50%

25

40

40%

20

30

20%

10

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

0%

1980

10%
1975

2009

2006

2003

1997
2000

1994

1988
1991

1985

1982

1976
1979

1973

1970

1964
1967

1961

1955
1958

1920

10
1890

1970

10

30%

1965

20

1960

15

1955

35

1950

40

1940

1930

1920

%
50

2013 1 8

81961~1975 19%

900,000

40

800,000

35

700,000

30
25

600,000

20

500,000

15

400,000

10

300,000

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

1969

1966

-5

1963

100,000
1960

200,000

-10

100

91.1

90

75.9

80

70

60
50

-2

37.3

40

-4

30
18.0

-6

10

101975

1,400

10
8

1,200

6
1,000

800

600

0
-2

400

-4
200

-6
1898
1903
1908
1913
1918
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1947
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005

1920 1947

11

-8

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

-10

1975

1975

1972

1955-1975

1969

1920-1955

1966

1868-1920

1963

-8

1960

20

2013 1 8

11 GDP

GDP

100

6 2500000

1000

5000
4500

900
5

800
700

2000000

4000
3500

600

1500000

500

3000
2500

400

1000000

2000

300
200

1500

500000

1000

100

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

500
1965

1960
1975 GDP 12

70 GDP
14 GDP
13
75%

121960~1975 GDP

y = 0.0026x + 64.889
2

R = 0.8456

78

y = 3.7689x - 229.47
2

R = 0.9429

60

76
74

50

72
40

70
68

30

66
20

64
62

10

GDP

60

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

62

1960-1975

64

66

68

70

72

1960-1975

12

74

76

78

2013 1 8

131975 GDP

95
y = 0.0003x + 73.077
2

R = 0.4576

90

120

y = 1.5802x - 39.635

110

R = 0.2689

100
90

85

80

80

70
60

75

50

GDP

40

70
0

10000

20000

30000

40000

75

50000

80

85

90

95

1976-2011

1976-2011

14 70 GDP

120

50

GDP

15000

45

40

100

30
80

20

60

12000

40

9000

10
0

40

35
6000

-10

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

-30

30

3000

1968

1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011

-20

1965

20

25

CEIC

20
15 2005
100 12 12 50% 16

17

13

2013 1 8

15

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

-5

Wikipedia

16
100

%
100

6500
6000

50

5500

46

5000
4500

42

4000
3500

38

3000
2500

34

2000

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

1969

1966

1963

1000

1960

1500
30

17

378,000

/
350

14,000

/
12,000

340

12,000

11,000

377,800

330
377,600

320

377,400

310
300

377,200

290
280

377,000

270
376,800

10,000

8,000
9,000
6,000
8,000

4,000
2,000

7,000

6,000

14

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

250

1960

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

260
1960

376,600

10,000

2013 1 8
90

50 1920 23.7% 2010

66.5% 18

18 GDP
%

75

40

65%

35

60%

25

60

20

35%

2010

2005

2000

20%

1995

25%

1990

30%

5
1985

10

1980

2003

2000

1997

1994

1991

1988

1985

1982

1979

1976

1973

1970

1967

1964

1961

1958

45

1955

1920

50
1890

50,000

40%

15

1975

100,000

45%

1970

55

50%

1965

150,000

55%

1960

200,000

70%

30

65

1955

250,000

1950

70

1940

300,000

45

1930

350,000

80

1920

GDP

400,000

1960 50%
1961 1962

600

23%
1946 53%
1960 1975 841 9685
70

1953
1965 1973 17.1% 1955
50% 1970 82%

90
1990 3

1.28 1.16 91%

15

2013 1 8
1869 Tokyo-to
1300 10% 23
Tokyo ku-area 900 7% 19
20 20

1930 207 1935 588

1946 1947 20%1948

1965 889 70
1970 2010
1%

12 292.2 274 400

10 90%
6% 18 20 1000 1500
5 2.5 80

20
2005 293
135%
Osaka-shi 222 Osaka-fu

267 2%
138% 23
315
1950 70
Nagoya-shi 326 227

1886 1900
1907
60

1.8% 70

16

2013 1 8

19

900

200%

900

30%

800

800
150%

700

25%

700
600

600
100%

500
400

50%

20%

500
15%

400

10%

300

300
200

0%

100

200

5%

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

-50%

1920

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

100
1920

0%

20

1,200

145
140

1,000

135

800

130
600
125
400

120

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

110

1975

1970

115
1965

200

21

350

80%

350

300

60%

300

250

40%

250

200

20%

200

10%

150

0%

150

8%

100

-20%

100

50

-40%

50

-60%

18%
16%
14%
12%

6%

17

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

2%
1920

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

1920

4%

0%

2013 1 8

22

250

100%

250

7%

80%
200

60%
40%

150

6%

200

5%
150

4%

100

3%

20%
100

0%
-20%

50

2%
50

1%
2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

-60%

1920

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1947

1940

1935

1930

1925

1920

-40%

0%

23

1960 2.3
2.5 1973 10 9.1 3
1967

1 2
52 33% 80% 50%

18

2013 1 8
1973 2008
22% 3% 24
90% 1 3000
25% 1927
10 90%
5 2.5 6%

1955
1965 4

1966 2006 8 5
1965

3 1965 1975 10 2655 1975

96% 5 1973

1975

BL 1980
1990 1985

2010
1% 1970 1/14

24

1,400,000

/
11
10

1,200,000

9
1,000,000

800,000

600,000

6
5

400,000

4
200,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

3
2

50%1952~1954
1950 6
GDP 1955 15%
1970 30% GDP
1950 37%1955
56% 50% 1952 1954

19

2013 1 8
1950 1956 1951 1953

25 GDP
16000

bn Yen

GDP

14000

12%

25%

10%

4.0%

8000

16%
14%

5.0%

10000

8%

20%

6000

3.0%

6%

4000

2.0%

15%

2000

4%

1970

1969

1968

1967

1966

1965

1964

1963

1962

1961

1960

1959

1958

1957

1956

1.0%

1955

6.0%

30%

12000

7.0%

35%

2%

10%
0.0%

0%
1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968

Haver Anylatics

26
600

TOPIX Index

Ma chi nery

500
400
300
200

1956-12

1956-06

1955-12

1955-06

1954-12

1954-06

1953-12

1953-06

1952-12

1952-06

1951-12

1951-06

1950-12

1950-06

1949-12

100

GFD

60%~70%1960 ~1968
1960 63% 1964

60% 70%
8 1968 1960

20

2013 1 8

27 15%
bn Yen

35%

6,000

30%
5,000

25%
20%

4,000

15%
10%

3,000

5%
2,000

0%
-5%

1,000

-10%
1961-01
1963-01
1965-01
1967-01
1969-01
1971-01
1973-01
1975-01
1977-01
1979-01
1981-01
1983-01
1985-01
1987-01
1989-01
1991-01
1993-01
1995-01
1997-01
1999-01
2001-01
2003-01
2005-01
2007-01

-15%

Haver Analytics

28 60%
1200
1000

TOPIX Index

Other Products

Preci s i on Ins truments

El ectri c Appl i a nces

Ma chi nery

800
600
400

1962-07

1962-01

1961-07

1961-01

1960-07

1960-01

1959-07

1959-01

1958-07

1958-01

1957-07

1957-01

200

GFD

29 70%
TOPIX Index
Preci s i on Ins truments
El ectri c Appl i a nces
Other Products
Ma chi nery
Cons tructi on

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150

GFD

21

1970-12

1970-06

1969-12

1969-06

1968-12

1968-06

1967-12

1967-06

1966-12

1966-06

50

1965-12

100

2013 1 8

30
Bui l di ng Sta rts Fl oor Area

Mi l .Sq.Meters
30

Bi l .Yen
800

Bui l di ng Sta rts Va l ue,RHS

700

25

600
20

500

15

400
300

10

200
5

100
0

1965/01
1965/04
1965/07
1965/10
1966/01
1966/04
1966/07
1966/10
1967/01
1967/04
1967/07
1967/10
1968/01
1968/04
1968/07
1968/10
1969/01
1969/04
1969/07
1969/10
1970/01
1970/04
1970/07
1970/10
1971/01
1971/04
1971/07
1971/10
1972/01

Haver Analytics

80%2001
2001 80%

31
90
21 IT
IT

e-Japan e-Japan

321998

31 80%
TOPIX Index

Communi ca ti ons

Securities

Whol es a le Tra de

400
350
300
250
200
150

GFD

22

2003-12

2003-09

2003-06

2003-03

2002-12

2002-09

2002-06

2002-03

2001-12

2001-09

2001-06

2001-03

2000-12

2000-09

2000-06

2000-03

1999-12

1999-09

1999-06

1999-03

50

1998-12

100

2013 1 8

32

300
250

200
150
100

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

50

Haver Analytics

1973 90%1974
1974

1997

90
90%
80%2009
50% 23 1960 63% 8
2001 10
2002 2001 78.6% 2009 87.3%
2.8% 2009 3.7% 1960 6.2%
2001 20% 2006

33 90 1973

600,000

600,000

500,000

500,000

400,000

400,000

300,000

300,000

200,000

200,000

100,000

100,000

500,000

%
100
90

400,000
80
300,000

70

200,000

60

40

1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

50
100,000

23

30

2013 1 8

34 2001 2002

4
2
0
-2
-4

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

-6
1981

1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009

1971
1973
1975
1977
1979

500,000

8
6

1979

1,000,000

1977

1,500,000

200,000
180,000
2,000,000 160,000
140,000
1,500,000 120,000
100,000
80,000
1,000,000 60,000
40,000
20,000
500,000
0
-20,000
0
-40,000
-60,000

1975

2,000,000

2,500,000

1973

2,500,000

1971

-8

35 2001

20%

15%

10%

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

0%

1971

5%

80
1980 20% 50%

24

25

GDP

CEIC

2011-1-1

(%)

2009-1-1

2007-1-1

5
0

2005-1-1

45%
86

2003-1-1

2001-1-1

60
55
96 50
45
94 40
35
92 30
25
90 20
15
88 10

1999-1-1

98

1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

1997-1-1

1995-1-1

1993-1-1

1991-1-1

1989-1-1

1987-1-1

1985-1-1

1983-1-1

1981-1-1
1982-1-1
1983-1-1
1984-1-1
1985-1-1
1986-1-1
1987-1-1
1988-1-1
1989-1-1
1990-1-1
1991-1-1
1992-1-1
1993-1-1
1994-1-1
1995-1-1
1996-1-1
1997-1-1
1998-1-1
1999-1-1
2000-1-1
2001-1-1
2002-1-1
2003-1-1
2004-1-1
2005-1-1
2006-1-1
2007-1-1
2008-1-1
2009-1-1
2010-1-1
2011-1-1

1981-1-1

1979-1-1

1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
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China International Capital

Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited
#39-04, 6 Battery Road,
Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
Fax: (65) 6327-1278

China International Capital

Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
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Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
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6
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