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MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Below we provide a list of the buy-rated tickers within the Tech Sector that possess the
highest 1-Month Forecast Return Figures. As you can see, these names are concentrated in
the Software, Office Comm Equipment, and Other Computers Industries. Many of these
tickers are still calculated to be undervalued-- and they have positive short and long-term
forecast figures, so these names would be likely investment targets if one is convinced that
the sector still has room to run.
This quarter's report is now available for purchase via our website. In addition to the
valuable VE and FDIC data, the report also contains critical ValuEngine data points on the
home building industry, technical levels for a variety of banking and housing indices, policy
prescriptions, and other analysis. To find out more or subscribe to the ValuEngine Quarterly
FDIC Report, click the cover below.
Investors Bancorp (ISBC) – Investors Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for
Investors Savings Bank, which provides banking services to customers in New Jersey. The
Bank is in the business of attracting deposits from the public through its branch network and
borrowing funds in the wholesale markets to originate loans and to invest in securities.
ISBC is rated a SELL according to ValuEngine with fair value at $10.12, which makes the
stock 5.2% overvalued. This is an $8.1 billion S&L, which--unlike many banks, is not
overexposed to C&D or CRE loans. However, our models still take issue with some of the
stocks fundamentals, hence the poor engine rating.
Analysis – The daily chart for Investors Bancorp shows overbought momentum with the 21-
day simple moving average at $9.94. My weekly value level is $9.71 with quarterly risky level
at $11.47.
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relies on a multi-faceted approach and considers fundamental variables such as a company's
trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the
company's future 12-month EPS, the 30-year Treasury yield, and eleven additional firm-
specific variables to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value
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provides subscribers with an equally-allocated portfolio of 15 stocks that is re-balanced once
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Below, you can see some recent results--June-July 2009:
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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
Treasuries
The weekly chart for the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury favors lower
yields, but monthly resistance at 3.223 is a formidable barrier. This
week’s pivot has been a magnet at 3.367. Risk aversion has been
trumping huge supply.
Commodities
The weekly chart for Comex Gold is positive, but the price rise has been held back by
monthly and semiannual pivots at $994.1 and $991.7. Rally attempts to take out the March
2008 high of $1033.9 has been blocked by weekly and daily pivots at $1002.5 and $1,014.3.
Semiannual resistance is $1,102.9.
The weekly chart for Comex Copper is overbought as rally attempts fail between its 200-
week simple moving average at $291.48 and monthly resistance at 295.88. A weekly close
below the five-week modified moving average at 272.45 will shift the weekly chart to negative
with declining MOJO targeting my annual pivot at 240.20.
The weekly chart for Nymex Crude Oil shifts to negative on a close today below my annual
pivot at $68.81. The 200-week simple moving average at $74.96 has been the barrier since
mid-June.
Weak copper and crude oil in the face of a weak dollar is a strong challenge to the global
growth story.
The Housing Sector Index (HGX) peaked at 116.81 on September 17th, and is now below its
21-day simple moving average at 107.97. With the daily chart negative the key support is the
50-day at 102.06.
The America’s Community Bankers index (ABAQ) peaked at 158.75 back on August 10th.
Community banks are the source of bank failures, and today is Bank Failure Friday. ABAQ is
down 20.9% year to date and sits just above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving
averages, which are important supports at 148.29 and 147.85.
The Regional Banking Index (BKX) has been lagging the major averages, up just 4.9% year
to date. The BKX peaked at $48.94 on September 17th within my $46.50 to $50.50 resistance
zone. If the BKX closes below its 21-day simple moving average at $46.43 the next support
is the 50-day at $43.83.
Housing and banking problems are harbingers of the return of the multi-year bear
market.
The Dow
The daily chart for the Dow will lose its overbought status today or Monday. A lower close
today confirms Wednesday’s key reversal day. A close below the 21-day simple moving
average at 9,600 will be the first warning that the multi-year bear market has returned.
The weekly chart for the Dow remains overbought with a MOJO reading of 9.2. It will take a
weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 9,456 before this chart
confirms the return of the bear.
It seems like the Dow will confirm a peak between my annual levels at 9,750 and 1,012.
Steve Hach
Senior Analyst
ValuEngine.com