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1Using a gridded global data set to characterize regional hydroclimate in central Chile 2 3E.M.C. Demaria1, E.P. Maurer2*, J.

Sheffield3, E. Bustos1, D. Poblete1, S. Vicu a1, !. Me"a1 / 31Ce#tro $#terdisci%li#ario de Cambio &lobal, Po#tificia '#i(ersidad Cat)lica de Chile, Sa#tia*o, 5Chile 42Ci(il E#*i#eeri#* De%artme#t, Sa#ta Clara '#i(ersit+, Sa#ta Clara, C,, 'S, 13De%artme#t of Ci(il a#d E#(iro#me#tal E#*i#eeri#*, Pri#ceto# '#i(ersit+, Pri#ceto#, -J, 'S, 6 10*Corres%o#di#* author, emaurer.e#*r.scu.edu, /01233/22141. 11 12

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13Abstract 1/Ce#tral Chile is faci#* dramatic %ro7ectio#s of climate cha#*e, 8ith a co#se#sus for decli#i#* 13%reci%itatio#, #e*ati(el+ affecti#* h+dro%o8er *e#eratio# a#d irri*ated a*riculture. 9isi#* from 15sea le(el to 5,000 meters 8ithi# a dista#ce of 200 :ilometers, %reci%itatio# characteri"atio# is 14difficult due to a lac: of lo#*2term obser(atio#s, es%eciall+ at hi*her ele(atio#s. !or 11u#dersta#di#* curre#t mea# a#d e;treme co#ditio#s a#d rece#t h+droclimatolo*ical cha#*e, as 168ell as to %ro(ide a baseli#e for do8#scali#* climate model %ro7ectio#s, a tem%orall+ a#d 20s%atiall+ com%lete data set of dail+ meteorolo*+ is esse#tial. <e use a *ridded *lobal dail+ 21meteorolo*ical data set at 0.23 de*ree resolutio# for the %eriod 16/122001, a#d ad7ust it usi#* 22mo#thl+ %reci%itatio# obser(atio#s i#ter%olated to the same *rid usi#* a co:ri*i#* method 8ith 23ele(atio# as a co(ariate. !or (alidatio#, 8e com%are dail+ statistics of the ad7usted *ridded 2/%reci%itatio# to statio# obser(atio#s. !or further (alidatio# 8e dri(e a h+drolo*+ model 8ith the 23*ridded 0.232de*ree meteorolo*+ a#d com%are stream flo8 statistics 8ith obser(ed flo8. <e 25(alidate the hi*h ele(atio# %reci%itatio# b+ com%ari#* the simulated s#o8 e;te#t to M=D$S 24ima*es. 9esults sho8 that the dail+ meteorolo*+ 8ith the ad7usted %reci%itatio# ca# accuratel+ 21ca%ture the statistical %ro%erties of e;treme e(e#ts as 8ell as the se>ue#ce of 8et a#d dr+ e(e#ts, 268ith h+drolo*ical model results dis%la+i#* reaso#able a*reeme#t for obser(ed flo8 statistics a#d 30s#o8 e;te#t. ?his demo#strates the successful use of a *lobal *ridded data %roduct i# a relati(el+ 31data2s%arse re*io# to ca%ture h+droclimatolo*ical characteristics a#d e;tremes. 32

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3/1. Introduction 33<hether e;%lori#* teleco##ectio#s for e#ha#ci#* flood a#d drou*ht %redictabilit+ or assessi#* 35the %ote#tial im%acts of climate cha#*e o# 8ater resources, u#dersta#di#* the res%o#se of the 34la#d surface h+drolo*+ to %erturbatio#s i# climate is esse#tial. ?his has i#s%ired the de(elo%me#t 31a#d assessme#t of ma#+ lar*e scale h+drolo*ic models for simulati#* la#d2atmos%here 36i#teractio#s o(er re*io#al a#d *lobal scales @e.*., Lawford et al., 200/A Milly and Shmaki#, 2002A /0Nijssen et al., 2001aA Sheffield and Wood, 2004B. /1 /2, %rere>uisite to re*io#al h+droclimatolo*ical a#al+ses is a com%rehe#si(e, multi2decadal, /3s%atiall+ a#d tem%orall+ com%lete data set of obser(ed meteorolo*+, 8hether for historic //simulatio#s or as a baseli#e for do8#scali#* future climate %ro7ectio#s. $# res%o#se to this #eed, /3data sets of dail+ *ridded meteorolo*ical obser(atio#s ha(e bee# *e#erated, both o(er /5co#ti#e#tal re*io#s @e.*.,Cosgrove et al., 2003A Maurer et al., 2002B a#d *loball+ [Adam and /4Lettenmaier, 2003A Sheffield et al., 2005B. ?hese ha(e be#efited from 8or: at coarser time scales /1[Chen et al., 2002A Daly et al., 166/A Mit hell and !ones, 2003A New et al., 2000A Willmott and /6Matsuura, 2001B, 8ith ma#+ %roducts combi#i#* multi%le sources, such as statio# obser(atio#s, 30remotel+ se#sed ima*es, a#d model rea#al+ses. 31 32<hile these lar*e2scale *ridded %roducts %ro(ide o%%ortu#ities for h+drolo*ical simulatio#s for 33la#d areas arou#d the *lobe, the+ are i#e(itabl+ limited i# their accurac+ 8here the u#derl+i#* 3/de#sit+ of a(ailable statio# obser(atio#s is lo8, the statio# locatio#s are i#ade>uate to re%rese#t 33com%le; to%o*ra%h+, or 8here the *ridded s%atial resolutio# is too lar*e for the re*io# bei#* 3 5
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35studied. Ce#tral Chile is a# es%eciall+ challe#*i#* e#(iro#me#t for characteri"i#* climate a#d 34h+drolo*+ si#ce the terrai# e;hibits dramatic ele(atio# cha#*es o(er short dista#ces, a#d the 31oro*ra%hic effects %roduce hi*h s%atial hetero*e#eit+ i# %reci%itatio#. $# *e#eral, the obser(atio# 36statio# de#sit+ i# South ,merica is i#ade>uate for lo#*2term h+droclimate characteri"atio# [de 50"on alves et al., 2005B. <hile some of South ,merica is relati(el+ 8ell re%rese#ted b+ *lobal 51obser(atio#al datasets [Silva et al., 2004B, re*io#s 8est of the ,#des are much less so [Lie#mann 52and Allured, 2003B. 53 5/$# this stud+, 8e utili"e a #e8 hi*h2resolutio# *lobal dail+ *ridded dataset of tem%erature a#d 53%reci%itatio#, ad7ust it 8ith a(ailable local climatolo*ical i#formatio#, a#d assess its utilit+ for 55re%rese#ti#* ri(er basi# h+drolo*+. 9eco*#i"i#* the (alue i# simulati#* realistic e;treme e(e#ts, 548e assess the #e8 data %roduct for its abilit+ to %roduce reaso#able dail+ streamflo8 statistics. 51<e e(aluate the %ote#tial to re%roduce climate a#d h+drolo*+ i# a %lausible ma##er, such that 56historical statistics are re%roduced. 40 41?he %ri#ci%al aim of this stud+ is to %roduce a *ridded re%rese#tatio# of the climate a#d 42h+drolo*+ of ce#tral Chile, a#d demo#strate a methodolo*+ for %roduci#* a reaso#able set of 43data %roducts that ca# be used for future studies of re*io#al h+drolo*+ or climate. &i(e# these 4/re*io#al results, 8e assess the %ote#tial to e;%ort the method to other relati(el+ data2s%arse 43re*io#s, 8here re%rese#tati(e climatolo*ical a(era*e i#formatio# is a(ailable but lo#*2term dail+ 45data are i#ade>uate. ?he %a%er is or*a#i"ed as follo8sC Sectio# 2 describes the stud+ area. $# 44Sectio# 3 8e describe the data, the h+drolo*ical model, a#d the methodolo*ical a%%roach.

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419esults of the ad7usted data set (alidatio# a#d model simulatio#s are discussed i# Sectio# /. 46!i#all+, the mai# co#clusio#s of the stud+ are %rese#ted i# Sectio# 3. 10

112. Region 12?he focus area of this stud+ is the re*io# i# ce#tral Chile, e#com%assi#* the four ma7or ri(er 13basi#s Dfrom #orth to south, the 9a%el, Mata>uito, Maule, a#d $tata 9i(ersE bet8ee# latitudes 1/33.23F S a#d 34.3F S D!i*ure 1E. ?he climate is Mediterra#ea#, 8ith 10G of the %reci%itatio# 13falli#* i# the rai#+ seaso# from Ma+2,u*ust [$alvey and "arreaud, 2004B, %ea:i#* duri#* Ju#e. 15?he terrai# is dramatic, risi#* a%%ro;imatel+ 5000 meters 8ithi# a hori"o#tal dista#ce of 14a%%ro;imatel+ 200 :m, %roduci#* shar% *radie#ts i# climate [$alvey and "arreaud, 2006B. 11Mea# %reci%itatio# is a%%ro;imatel+ 300 mm %er +ear at the -orth e#d of the stud+ domai#, a#d 16as much as 3000 mm %er +ear i# the hi*h ele(atio#s at the Souther# e#d of the domai#. ,lthou*h 60climate i#formatio# i# the (alle+ or mou#tai# foothills is 8ell re%rese#ted b+ meteorolo*ical 61statio#s it is e(ide#t from !i*ure 1 that the hi*h ele(atio# areas are u#der2re%rese#ted b+ a#+ of 62the obser(atio# statio#s. 63 6/=ur stud+ re*io# i# Ce#tral Chile is es%eciall+ im%orta#t from a h+droclimatolo*ical sta#d%oi#t, 63as it co#tai#s more tha# 43G of the Cou#tr+Hs total irri*ated a*riculture

65@888.ce#soa*ro%ecuario.clIi#de;2.htmlB a#d the ma7orit+ of the reser(oir stora*e i# the cou#tr+, 64a#d %ro(ides 8ater su%%l+ for some of ChileJs lar*est cities. , cha#*i#* climate is e(ide#t i# 61rece#t h+droclimate records [%u#io&'lvare( and M )hee, 2010B, a#d future climate %ro7ectio#s 66for the re*io# i#dicate the %ote#tial for (er+ lar*e im%acts [*radley et al., 2005B. Vicu a et al. 6 10
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100@2011B sho8 the (ul#erabilit+ of Ce#tral Chile to %ro7ected climate cha#*e is hi*h, 8ith robust 101dr+i#* tre#ds i# &e#eral Circulatio# Model D&CME %ro7ectio#s, a#d a hi*h se#siti(it+ to 102cha#*i#* s#o8 melt %atter#s, a#d also discuss the challe#*es i# characteri"i#* climate i# a 103Chilea# catchme#t 8ith fe8 %reci%itatio# obser(atio#s, a#d #o#e at hi*h ele(atio#s.

10/3. Methods and data 1033.1 Gridded data set develo ment 105<e be*i# 8ith a *ridded *lobal Dla#d surfaceE forci#* dataset of dail+ %reci%itatio# a#d 104mi#imum a#d ma;imum tem%eratures at 0.23F s%atial resolutio# Da%%ro;imatel+ 23 :mE, 101%re%ared follo8i#* Sheffield et al. @2005B. ?o summari"e, the forci#* dataset is based o# the 106-CEPK-C,9 rea#al+sis [+alnay et al., 1665B for 16/122001, from 8hich dail+ ma;imum a#d 110mi#imum tem%erature a#d dail+ %reci%itatio# are obtai#ed at a%%ro;imatel+ 2F s%atial resolutio#. 1119ea#al+sis tem%eratures are based o# u%%er2air obser(atio#s, thou*h %reci%itatio# is a model 112out%ut a#d thus e;hibits si*#ifica#t biases. 113 11/?he rea#al+sis tem%eratures are i#ter%olated to a 0.23F s%atial resolutio#, usi#* la%si#* 113tem%eratures of 25.3FCI:m based o# the ele(atio# differe#ce bet8ee# the lar*e rea#al+sis s%atial 115scale a#d the ele(atio# i# each 0.23F *rid cell. Preci%itatio# is i#ter%olated to 0.23F usi#* a 114%roduct of the ?ro%ical 9ai#fall Measuri#* Missio# D?9MM 3B/29?E [,uffman et al., 2004B 111follo8i#* the methods outli#ed b+ Sheffield et al. @2005B. ?he dail+ statistics of %reci%itatio# 116D#umber of rai# da+s, 8etIdr+ da+ tra#sitio# %robabilitiesE are corrected b+ resam%li#* to match 120the obser(atio#2based mo#thl+ 0.3F rai# da+s data from the Climate 9esearch '#it @C9', 121Mit hell and !ones, 2003B a#d the dail+ statistics of the &lobal Preci%itatio# Climatolo*+ Pro7ect 11 12
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122[,uffman et al., 2001B a#d the *lobal forci#* dataset of -i7sse# et al. @2001aB. ?o e#sure lar*e2 123scale corres%o#de#ce bet8ee# this data set a#d the C9' mo#thl+ data set, %reci%itatio# is scaled 12/so the mo#thl+ totals match the C9' mo#thl+ (alues at the C9' s%atial scale. Ma;imum a#d 123mi#imum tem%eratures are also scaled to match the C9' time series, usi#* C9' mo#thl+ mea# 125tem%erature a#d diur#al tem%erature ra#*e. 124 121<hile the i#cor%oratio# of multi%le sources of e;te#si(el+ re(ie8ed data %ro(ides a# i#(aluable 126data %roduct for *lobal a#d co#ti#e#tal scale a#al+ses, as discussed b+ Mitchell a#d Jo#es @2003B 130ultimatel+ much of the local characteri"atio# is traceable to a commo# #et8or: of la#d surface 131obser(atio#s [)eterson et al., 1661B, 8hich is hi*hl+ (ariable i# statio# de#sit+ for differe#t 132re*io#s. !or e;am%le, for the re*io# of stud+ sho8# i# !i*ure 1, a# a(era*e of 32/ obser(atio# 133statio#s are i#cluded i# the C9' %reci%itatio# data %roduct, a#d #o#e are i# hi*h2ele(atio# areas. 13/?his results i# a fe8 lo8 ele(atio# meteorolo*ical statio#s i# Chile o# the 8ester# side of the 133,#des, a#d the #e;t obser(atio# statio# to the east is i# a more arid area i# ,r*e#ti#a. ?hus, the 135resulti#* %reci%itatio# fields i# the *ridded %roduct for this re*io# sho8 a s%atial *radie#t 134o%%osite to that %ublished b+ the Direcci)# &e#eral de ,*uas [D",, 1614B. !i*ure 2a sho8s the 131s%atial distributio# of *ridded *lobal total a##ual %reci%itatio# that dis%la+s a #otable decrease of 136rai#fall 8ith ele(atio#. Co#(ersel+ the D&, %reci%itatio# ma% is able to ca%ture the 1/0climatolo*ical oro*ra%hic e#ha#ceme#t of %reci%itatio# b+ the ,#des D!i*ure 2bE. ?he 1/1%reci%itatio# la%se rates for the latitudi#al ba#ds 233.123F S a#d 235.123F S sho8 a #e*ati(e 1/2*radie#t of %reci%itatio# 8ith ele(atio# i# the *lobal *ridded data set 8hereas the D&, 1/3%reci%itatio# sho8s a %ositi(e *radie#t for the %eriod 1631216 D!i*ures 2c a#d 2d, res%ecti(el+E. 1// 13 1/
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1/3<he# the *ridded data %roduct is used to dri(e a la#d surface h+drolo*+ model Ddescribed i# 1/5more detail belo8E, the shortcomi#*s of the %reci%itatio# characteri"atio# are e(ide#t i# !i*ure 3. 1/4?here a (er+ %oor characteri"atio# of the seaso#al lo8 flo8, a#d the later seaso# s#o8melt %ulse 1/1is abse#t. Calibratio# is #ot able to reco(er the obser(ed streamflo8 %atter#s, i#dicati#* that the 1/6erro#eous s%atial distributio# of %reci%itatio# i# the ra8 *ridded data set is #ot a%%ro%riate for 130h+droclimatolo*ical studies i# this s#o8 domi#ated re*io#. 131 132Local data from the D&, of Chile, some mo#thl+ a#d some dail+, 8ere obtai#ed to characteri"e 133the local climatolo*+ better. <hile still biased to8ard lo8 ele(atio# areas, the statio#s D!i*ure 1E 13/do co(er a 8ider ra#*e a#d i#clude altitudes u% to 2/00 m. ?hese statio#s 8ere filtered to i#clude 133those that had at least 60G com%lete mo#thl+ records for at least a 202+ear %eriod of record i# 135the 161322004 8i#do8 Dthe %eriod co#tai#i#* the most com%lete data co(era*eE, selected as our 134climatolo*ical %eriod. !rom the %ool of 40 a(ailable statio#s, /0 statio#s met the t8o criteria. 131E;ce%t for the $tata ri(er basi#, 8hich had t8o statio#s located at 1200 a#d 2/00 meters abo(e 136sea le(el, most of the selected statio#s 8ere located i# the ce#tral %art of the re*io# at ele(atio#s 150belo8 300 meters. Mea# %reci%itatio# 8as com%uted for each mo#th a#d for each selected 151statio#, resulti#* i# 12 mea# (alues for the climatolo*ical %eriod. Si#ce the climate of Ce#tral 152Chile is also modulated b+ i#tera##ual (ariabilit+ li#:ed to El -i#o a#d the Pacific Decadal 153=scillatio# ["arreaud et al., 2006B a multidecadal %eriod 8as chose# to limit the i#flue#ce of a 15/si#*le %redomi#a#t %hase of lo82fre>ue#c+ oscillatio#s duri#* the climatolo*ical %eriod. ?he 153mo#thl+ a(era*e %reci%itatio# for the selected D&, statio#s 8as i#ter%olated o#to the same 1550.23F *rid usi#* co:ri*i#*, 8ith ele(atio# bei#* the co(ariate. ?his method of co:ri*i#* has bee#

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154sho8# to im%ro(e :ri*i#* i#ter%olatio# to i#clude oro*ra%hic effects i#duced b+ com%le; terrai# 151[Diodato and Ce arelli, 2003A ,evesi et al., 1662B. 156 140?his %rocess %roduced t8el(e mo#thl+ mea# %reci%itatio# ma%s for the re*io#. ?he same 16132 1412004 %eriod 8as e;tracted from the dail+ *ridded data set, a#d mo#thl+ a(era*e (alues 8ere 142calculated for each *rid cell. 9atios Dt8el(e, o#e for each mo#thE of obser(ed climatolo*+ 143di(ided b+ the *ridded data set a(era*e 8ere the# calculated for each *rid cell. Dail+ (alues i# 14/the *ridded data set 8ere ad7usted to create a #e8 set of dail+ %reci%itatio# data, P ad7, 8hich 143matches the i#ter%olated obser(atio#s %roduced 8ith co:ri*i#*, usi#* a sim%le ratioC P i ,j ( ) b s , m o n P i ,j , t = P i ,j , t o ) ( ) D1E a d j( g r i d P i ,j ( ) g r i d , m o n 1458here P*rid is the ori*i#al dail+ *ridded 0.23F data at locatio# D i,jE, Pobs is the i#ter%olated 144obser(ed climatolo*+, o(erbars i#dicate the 161322004 mea#, a#d the subscri%t M monN i#dicates 141the mo#th from the climatolo*+ i# 8hich da+ t falls. 146 110?his same method 8as a%%lied to a *lobal dataset of dail+ meteorolo*+ i# a data s%arse re*io# i# 111Ce#tral ,merica, resulti#* i# im%ro(ed characteri"atio# of %reci%itatio# a#d la#d surface 112h+drolo*+ [Maurer et al., 2006B. $# additio#, this #e8 ad7usted data set i#cludes the full 16/12 1132001 %eriod, des%ite the fact that local obser(atio#s are (er+ s%arse before 1610. 11/ 113?o (alidate the ad7usted %reci%itatio# data set, 8e com%uted a set of statistical %arameters 8idel+ 115used to describe climate e;tremes [dos Santos et al., 2011A -hang and .an*, 200/B. ,dditio#all+ 114to e(aluate the tem%oral characteristics of rai#fall e(e#ts 8e com%uted the %robabilit+ of

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111occurre#ce of 8et a#d dr+ da+s, a#d the tra#sitio# %robabilities bet8ee# 8et a#d dr+ states 116[Wilks and Wil#+, 1666B. ?able 1 sho8s a descri%tio# of the statistics used. 160 161?o e(aluate if the ad7usted %reci%itatio# data set ca%tures the oro*ra%hic *radie#t of %reci%itatio# 1628e com%ared model simulated S#o8 <ater E>ui(ale#t DS<EE to the M=D$SI?erra S#o8 Co(er 163data set, 8hich is a(ailable at 0.03 de*ree resolutio# for 12da+ %eriods starti#* from the +ear 16/2000. M=D$S s#o8 co(er data are based o# a s#o8 ma%%i#* al*orithm that em%lo+s a 163-ormali"ed Differe#ce S#o8 $#de; [,all et al., 2005B. ?o estimate s#o8 co(er from the 165meteorolo*ical data, the Variable $#filtratio# Ca%acit+ DV$CE model 8as em%lo+ed Dsee model 164descri%tio# i# Sectio# 3.2E. ?he accurac+ of simulated s#o8 co(er relati(e to that of ra#dom 161cha#ce 8as measured 8ith the Oeid:e S:ill Score @OSS, Wilks, 2005B. , score e>ual to o#e 1668ould i#dicate %erfect a*reeme#t bet8ee# V$C simulated s#o8 co(er a#d obser(atio#sA a (alue 200*reater tha# "ero i#dicates some %redicti(e s:ill. ?hus, the closer the OSS is to o#e, the less 201li:el+ it is that the a*reeme#t bet8ee# obser(atio#s a#d simulatio#s has bee# obtai#ed b+ 202cha#ce. ?he score is com%uted asC 203
H S S= 2 a d b c ) ( ) a + c c+ d + a + b b + d ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

D2E

20/ 2038here a a#d d are the #umbers of hits Di.e., %airs of successful M=D$S2V$C #o s#o8 a#d s#o8 205estimates, res%ecti(el+E, b is the #umber of cases 8he# V$C simulates s#o8 but M=D$S does #ot 204measure it, a#d c is the #umber of e(e#ts 8he# s#o8 is obser(ed b+ M=D$S but #ot simulated 201b+ V$C. 206 16 20
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2103.2 !ydrologic Model "imulations 211?o assess the abilit+ of the dail+ *ridded meteorolo*+ de(elo%ed i# this stud+ to ca%ture dail+ 212climate features across the 8atersheds, 8e simulate the h+drolo*+ of ri(er basi#s i# the re*io# to 213obtai# streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co(er estimates. ?he h+drolo*ic model used is the Variable 21/$#filtratio# Ca%acit+ DV$CE model [Cherkauer et al., 2003A Liang et al., 166/B. ?he V$C model is 213a distributed, %h+sicall+2based h+drolo*ic model that bala#ces both surface e#er*+ a#d 8ater 215bud*ets o(er a *rid mesh. ?he V$C model uses a MmosaicN scheme that allo8s a statistical 214re%rese#tatio# of the sub2*rid s%atial (ariabilit+ i# to%o*ra%h+, i#filtratio# a#d (e*etatio#Ila#d 211co(er, a# im%orta#t attribute 8he# simulati#* h+drolo*+ i# hetero*e#eous terrai#. ?he resulti#* 216ru#off at each *rid cell is routed throu*h a defi#ed ri(er s+stem usi#* the al*orithm de(elo%ed b+ 220Lohma## et al. @1665B. ?he V$C model has bee# successfull+ a%%lied i# ma#+ setti#*s, from 221*lobal to ri(er basi# scale @e.*., Maurer et al., 2002A Nijssen et al., 2001bA Sheffield and Wood, 2222004B. 223 22/!or this stud+, the model 8as ru# at a dail+ time ste% at a 0.23F resolutio# Da%%ro;imatel+ 530 223:m2 %er *rid cell for the stud+ re*io#E. Ele(atio# data for the basi# routi#* 8ere based o# the 132 225arc2seco#d O+drosheds dataset [Lehner et al., 2005B, deri(ed from the Shuttle 9adar ?o%o*ra%h+ 224Missio# DS9?ME at 3 arc2seco#d resolutio#. La#d co(er a#d soil h+draulic %ro%erties 8ere based 221o# (alues from Sheffield a#d <ood @2004B, thou*h s%ecified soil de%ths a#d V$C soil %arameters 2268ere modified duri#* calibratio#. ?he ri(er s+stems co#tributi#* to selected %oi#ts 8ere defi#ed 230at a 0.23F resolutio#, follo8i#* the tech#i>ue outli#ed b+ =HDo##ell et al. @1666B. 231

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232#. Results and $iscussion 233?he ad7usted data set 8as (alidated i# se(eral 8a+s. !irst, ad7usted dail+ %reci%itatio# fields 8ere 23/cross2(alidated i# four locatio#s. Seco#d, the fi#al dataset 8as %re%ared a#d dail+ statistics 8ere 233com%ared bet8ee# the *lobal dail+ data set a#d local obser(atio#s. ?hird, h+drolo*ic simulatio# 235out%uts 8ere com%ared to obser(atio#s to i#(esti*ate the %lausibilit+ of usi#* the #e8 data set as 234a# obser(atio#al baseli#e for stud+i#* climate im%acts o# h+drolo*+. 231 236#.1 Gridded meteorological data cross%validation 2/0Prior to usi#* the ad7usted %reci%itatio# fields for h+drolo*ic simulatio#s 8e %erformed a cross2 2/1(alidatio# of the *ridded %reci%itatio# for the mo#ths of Ma+, Ju#e, Jul+, a#d ,u*ust at four 2/2locatio#s across the basi#s. !i*ure / sho8s the *eo*ra%hic locatio# of the (alidatio# sites a#d 2/3?able 2 sho8s the *eo*ra%hic coordi#ates of the 0.23 de*ree *rid cells used i# the com%ariso#. 2//!or each *rid %oi#t D0.23 *rid cell ce#terE, the three #earest %reci%itatio# obser(atio# statio#s, 2/3located i# a# a%%ro;imate 30 :m diameter circle surrou#di#* the *rid cell ce#ter, 8ere selected 2/5for (alidatio#. Selected statio#s 8ere located, 8he# %ossible, #ot more tha# 30G hi*her 2/4Dma;imum ele(atio# differe#ce 8as 130 meters e;ce%t at Loc3 8here it 8as 300 metersE or 2/1lo8er tha# that of the 0.23F *rid cell. !or each mo#th a#d for each of the four locatio#s Di.e., 2/6Loc1, Loc2, Loc3, a#d Loc/E the three %reci%itatio# *au*e statio#s surrou#di#* the *rid cell 2308ere e;cluded from the co:ri*i#* i#ter%olatio# %rocess, 8hich %roduced four sets Do#e for each 231siteE of four ma%s Do#e for each mo#th from Ma+2,u*ustE of climatolo*ical %reci%itatio# at 0.23F 232s%atial resolutio#. Dail+ *ridded ad7usted %reci%itatio# (alues at each locatio# 8ere the# obtai#ed 233b+ a%%l+i#* E>uatio# 1. 23/ 23 2/

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233, scatter %lot bet8ee# obser(ed a#d i#ter%olated a(era*e D161322004E mo#thl+ %reci%itatio# for 235Ma+2,u*ust Dthe rai#+ seaso#E, at each locatio# is sho8# i# !i*ure 3. -ote that the three rai# 234*au*es surrou#di#* each locatio# 8ere e;cluded from the i#ter%olatio# %rocess %roduci#* the 231dail+ *ridded data at that locatio#. $#ter%olated mo#thl+ totals u#derestimate obser(atio#s b+ 23614.3G mostl+ as a result of stro#* u#derestimatio# of rai#fall totals i# Loc 3. ?he relati(e 9MSE 250is 0.14G i#dicati#* a *ood a*reeme#t bet8ee# obser(ed simulated fields. <he# (alues for Loc3 251are #ot i#cluded i# the com%utatio# of the bias, it im%ro(es to 3.3G a#d the 9MSE is e>ual to 2520.33G. $t is 8orth #oti#* that Loc3 is situated i# a re*io# 8ith e;tremel+ com%le; %reci%itatio# 253*radie#ts due to oro*ra%hic e#ha#ceme#t at the foothills of the ,#des Mou#tai#s, a#d b+ 25/e;cludi#* the three *au*es #earest to the *rid cell ce#ter, the closest remai#i#* %reci%itatio# 253obser(atio#s are at a dista#ce of hu#dreds of :ilometers, lea(i#* that area esse#tiall+ 255u#re%rese#ted b+ obser(atio#s. ?hus, it is #ot sur%risi#* that 8ith #o obser(atio#al u#der%i##i#*, 254ca%turi#* com%le; features i# s%atial %reci%itatio# %atter#s is difficult. 251 256&i(e# the risi#* i#terest i# characteri"i#* e;treme e(e#ts i# the co#te;t of a cha#*i#* climate 240[/)CC, 2011B, the abilit+ of the ad7usted dail+ *ridded dataset to characteri"e e;treme statistics is 241im%orta#t. ?he s:ill of the ad7usted dail+ data sets for the cross2(alidatio# e;ercise at ca%turi#* 242rai#fall e;tremes 8as assessed for the same four locatio#s. <e com%uted a set of statistical 243(ariables fre>ue#tl+ used to describe climate e;tremes, usi#* the 9ClimDe; soft8are [-hang 24/and .an*, 200/A -hang et al., 2003B. $# this case, the statistics 8ere com%uted at the dail+ le(el 243at each *rid cell for the ori*i#al *ridded data set D'#d,d7E, the ad7usted data set D,d7E, a#d the 245obser(atio#s D=bsE. !i*ure 5 i#dicates that the mo#thl+ rescali#* im%ro(es the re%rese#tatio# of 244i#te#se rai#fall e(e#ts D963%E, the a##ual total %reci%itatio# DP9C?=?E, a#d the %reci%itatio# 23 25
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241i#te#sit+ DSD$$E i# three of the four locatio#s. ?he #umber of da+s 8ith %reci%itatio# o(er 20 mm 246D920mmE also sho8s a# im%ro(eme#t due to the ad7ustme#t i# three locatio#s. ?he statistical 210%arameter li#:ed to the le#*th of 8et s%ells DC<DE is #ot *reatl+ affected b+ the ad7ustme#t, 2118hich is e;%ected si#ce rescali#* is %erformed at the mo#thl+ le(el. ?he ma;imum 12da+ 212%reci%itatio# (alue D9P1da+E is sli*htl+ im%ro(ed i# Loc3 a#d Loc/ as a result of scali#*. 213 21/?he statistical si*#ifica#ce of the %arameters i# !i*ure 5 8as assessed 8ith the correlatio# 213coefficie#t a#d a t8o2sam%le u#%aired Stude#tHs t2test to determi#e if the mea#s of the statistics 2158ere statisticall+ differe#t D?able 3E. Correlatio# is hi*h bet8ee# obser(atio#s a#d ad7usted 214%reci%itatio# for the statistics that measure %reci%itatio# ma;imum at the a##ual a#d dail+ le(els 211D966% a#d 9P1dE a#d the differe#ces i# their mea#s are #ot si*#ifica#tl+ differe#t from "ero Dat 216QR0.03E. ?otal a##ual %reci%itatio# is hi*hl+ correlated i# both data sets, ho8e(er the mea#s are 260statisticall+ differe#t i# Loc2 a#d Loc3. ?he %reci%itatio# i#te#sit+ DSD$$E, a#d the #umber of 261da+s 8ith %reci%itatio# o(er the 20 mm threshold D920mmE are stro#*l+ correlated 8ith 262obser(atio#s a#d ha(e mea#s that are statisticall+ i#disti#*uishable i# all locatio#s e;ce%t for 263Loc3. ?he le#*th of ad7usted 8et s%ells DC<DE 8as statisticall+ differe#t tha# obser(atio#s. 26/ 263=(erall, based o# the cross2(alidatio# results i# !i*ures 3 a#d 5 a#d ?able 3, it ca# be co#cluded 265that, 8hile #ot all deficie#cies i# the re%rese#tatio# of dail+ %reci%itatio# i# the *ridded %roduct 264ca# be reco(ered b+ our sim%le mo#thl+ climatolo*ical scali#*, the resembla#ce to obser(atio#s 261im%ro(es for ma#+ im%orta#t statistics, es%eciall+ those related to total %reci%itatio#, 266%reci%itatio# i#te#sit+, a#d e;treme e(e#ts. 300 24 21
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301#.2 Gridded meteorological data develo ment 302 303!ollo8i#* the cross2(alidatio#, the same methodolo*+ 8as a%%lied to all t8el(e mo#ths usi#* all 30/of the /0 rai# *au*es selected usi#* the criteria outli#ed i# Sectio# 3.1. $# other 8ords, for the 303fi#al *ridded %reci%itatio# %roduct, #o %reci%itatio# statio#s 8ere e;cluded. !i*ure 4 sho8s the 305ad7usted *ridded a##ual %reci%itatio# fields a#d their de%arture from the obser(ed data set for the 304%eriod 163022005. $# !i*ure 4, for each 0.23 de*ree *rid cell, ad7usted a##ual %reci%itatio# 8as 301subtracted from obser(ed %reci%itatio#. $t is e(ide#t that i# the more humid souther# 306mou#tai#ous %ortio# of the stud+ area there has bee# a mar:ed i#crease i# %reci%itatio# 8ith the 310ad7ustme#t, i#cor%orati#* the more detailed i#formatio# embedded i# the rai# *au*e 311obser(atio#s. -e*ati(e differe#ces bet8ee# ori*i#al a#d ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio# i#dicate 312the e;iste#ce of a ba#d alo#* the ,#des 8here a##ual %reci%itatio# is *reater i# the ad7usted 313%reci%itatio# data set com%ared to the u#ad7usted *ridded data D!i*ure 4bE. 31/ 313?o com%are ho8 the ad7usted dail+ %reci%itatio# relates to obser(atio#s, 8e com%ared dail+ 315rai#fall statistics at the same four locatio#s used i# the cross2(alidatio# ste%, a#d com%are these 314locatio#s 8ith the same three surrou#di#* obser(atio# statio#s as abo(e. ?able / summari"es the 311basic statistics, bias, 9MSE a#d correlatio# coefficie#t for dail+ obser(ed D=BSE a#d dail+ 316ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio# D,DJE for ,ustral summer DDJ!E a#d ,ustral 8i#ter DJJ,E for the 320%eriod 161322004. ?he bias is defi#ed as the sum of the differe#ces bet8ee# ,DJ a#d =BS, a#d 321the 9MSE is e>ual to the root mea# s>uared error bet8ee# dail+ ,DJ a#d =BS %reci%itatio# 322(alues. Si#ce #o obser(atio# statio#s 8ere e;cluded i# de(elo%i#* this fi#al *ridded data set, a#d 323the ad7ustme#t %rocess scales dail+ data to match mo#thl+ climatolo*ical mea#s, lo#*2term mea# 26 30
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32/(alues i# the *ridded data set are e;%ected to be close bet8ee# obser(atio#s. ?here is, ho8e(er, 323#o dail+ i#formatio# from the obser(atio#s i#cluded i# the *ridded data set. ?hus, as e;%ected, 325i# ?able / mea# dail+ (alues are (er+ close for the obser(ed a#d ad7usted datasets for both 324seaso#s. ?he (ariabilit+ of dail+ %reci%itatio# 8ithi# each seaso#, re%rese#ted b+ the sta#dard 321de(iatio#, also com%ares relati(el+ 8ell, thou*h the ad7usted *ridded data sho8 *reater 326(ariabilit+ tha# the obser(atio#s duri#* the rai#+ 8i#ter seaso#. , hi*h 9MSE a#d lo8 330correlatio# (alues i#dicate that tem%oral se>ue#ci#* differs bet8ee# the t8o data sets. ?his is #ot 331u#e;%ected, si#ce the dail+ %reci%itatio# i# the ori*i#al 0.23F *ridded data 8as deri(ed from 332rea#al+sis, a#d as such it is a model out%ut [+alnay et al., 1665B, ad7usted as discussed i# Sectio# 3333.1 abo(e, 8hich does #ot i#cor%orate statio# obser(atio#s from the surrou#di#* statio#s used i# 33/the com%ariso#s i# this stud+. <hile im%orta#t characteristics of dail+ %reci%itatio# (ariabilit+ 333are re%rese#ted i# the 0.23F *ridded data, a#d mo#thl+ totals should bear resembla#ce to 335obser(atio#s Dat least as re%rese#ted b+ the u#derl+i#* mo#thl+ data such as C9'E, 334corres%o#de#ce 8ith obser(ed dail+ %reci%itatio# e(e#ts is #ot a#tici%ated. 331 336,s i# the cross2(alidatio# ste%, 8e use 9ClimDe; to com%ute a set of e;treme statistics, 3/0described i# ?able 1. ,dditio#all+ 8e com%ute the u#co#ditio#al %robabilit+ of occurre#ce of 3/18et a#d dr+ da+s a#d the corres%o#di#* tra#sitio# %robabilities. ?able 3 summari"es results for 3/2com%ariso#s of statistical %arameters listed i# ?able 1 for the four locatio#s, similar to ?able 3. 3/3 3//?he a*reeme#t bet8ee# ad7usted total a##ual %reci%itatio# DP9CP?=?E a#d obser(atio#s is *ood 3/38ith a# a(era*e bias of 26G from the obser(ed statio# mea# D#ot sho8#E, althou*h this is 3/5co#strai#ed b+ desi*#, si#ce for lo#*2term a(era*e >ua#tities the data sets are #ot i#de%e#de#t as 31 32
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3/4#oted abo(e. E;treme %reci%itatio# e(e#ts D966% a#d 963% a#d ma;imum 12da+ %reci%itatio# 3/1D9P1da+E ha(e statisticall+ i#disti#*uishable mea#s for all four locatio#s. Preci%itatio# i#te#sit+ 3/6DSD$$E also sho8s *ood a*reeme#t at the four locatio#s, 8ith statisticall+ e>ual mea#s for 330obser(atio#s a#d ad7usted *ridded data for three of the four locatio#s. Co#(ersel+ the %arameters, 33193mm 920mm, albeit stro#*l+ correlated, 8ere fou#d to ha(e statisticall+ differe#t mea# (alues. 332?his %he#ome#o# of a *ridded %reci%itatio# data set ha(i#* lo8er e;treme %reci%itatio# (alues 333tha# statio# obser(atio#s 8as also #oted i# the South ,merica# stud+ of Sil(a et al. @2004B a#d is 33/co#siste#t 8ith the effect of s%atial a(era*i#*, i.e., com%ari#* the a(era*e of a 530 :m 2 0.23F 333*rid cell to the smaller, more discrete area re%rese#ted b+ the three a(era*ed statio#s [.evjevi h, 3351642B. ?he statistics related to duratio# of 8et a#d dr+ s%ells sho8ed statisticall+ differe#t 334%o%ulatio# mea#s at all / locatio#s. ?he ma;imum co#secuti(e #umber of dr+ da+s DCDDE a#d 3318et da+s DC<DE i# a +ear is lo8er for the ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio# com%ared to 336obser(atio#s i#dicati#* that the resam%li#* ca##ot modif+ the duratio#s of 8et a#d dr+ e(e#ts i# 350the ad7usted *ridded data set. 351 352?he %robabilities of a da+ bei#* 8et or dr+ are com%arable bet8ee# both datasets. $# co#trast, 353the ad7usted %reci%itatio# data sho8s a# a(era*e tra#sitio# %robabilit+ of a 8et da+ follo8ed b+ a 35/8et da+ of 0.21 com%ared to 0.30 obtai#ed for the obser(atio#s su**esti#* that the duratio# of 353storm e(e#ts is shorter i# the ad7usted *ridded dataset. ?his could %artiall+ e;%lai# the 355u#derestimatio# of ma;imum co#secuti(e 8et da+s DC<DE i# the ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio# 354as 8ell. 351

33 3/

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356!i#all+, the results i# ?able 3, for the fi#al *ridded %roductE ca# be see# to be #earl+ ide#tical to 340those i# ?able 3 Dfor the cross2(alidatio#E. ?his demo#strates that the dail+ statistics of the 341*ridded %roduct are #ot deri(i#* their (alues from the statio#s surrou#di#* i#di(idual *rid cells, 342si#ce the statistics at each locatio# are #ot %articularl+ se#siti(e to the e;clusio# of #earb+ 343statio#s. 9ather, the im%ro(eme#ts i# e;treme statistics are reali"ed due to im%ro(ed lar*e2scale 34/%reci%itatio# characteri"atio# i#cor%orati#* ele(atio# data to correct biases i# s%atial distributio# 343of %reci%itatio# fields. 345 344#.3 !ydrologic Model &alidation o' Ad(usted Meteorology 341?o assess the re%rese#tatio# i# the #e8 meteorolo*ical data set of basi#28ide a#d hi*h ele(atio# 346areas, the ad7usted *ridded data de(elo%ed a#d assessed i# the %re(ious sectio#s 8ere the# used 310to dri(e the V$C h+drolo*ic model. Si#ce the %reci%itatio# 8as sho8# to be com%arable to 311obser(atio#s D8here a(ailableE i# ma#+ im%orta#t res%ects, a#other (alidatio# of the dri(i#* 312meteorolo*+ 8ould be the successful simulatio# of obser(ed streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co(er. 3139ecords of obser(ed streamflo8 i# the re*io# te#d to be i#com%lete or for short %eriods, a#d 31/si#ce most of the ri(ers are affected b+ reser(oirs a#d di(ersio#s the flo8s ofte# do #ot reflect 313#atural streamflo8 as simulated b+ the V$C model. !or this %ro7ect, 8e focused o# three sites, 315sho8# i# !i*ure 1, 8hich ha(e more com%lete records a#d 8ere 7ud*ed to be relati(el+ free of 314a#thro%o*e#ic i#flue#ces. 311 316!or the site o# the Mata>uito 9i(er, the V$C model 8as calibrated to mo#thl+ stream flo8s for 360the %eriod 166021666 usi#* the Multi2=b7ecti(e Com%le; E(olutio# DM=C=M2',E al*orithm 361[.a0o et al., 1661B. ?he three o%timi"atio# criteria used i# this stud+ 8ere the -ash2Sutcliff 33 35
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362model efficie#c+ @-SE, Nash and Sut liffe, 1640B usi#* both flo8 D-SEE a#d the lo*arithm of 363flo8 D-SElo*E, a#d the bias, e;%ressed as a %erce#t of obser(ed mea# flo8. ?his %ro(ides a 36/bala#ce bet8ee# criteria that %e#ali"e errors at hi*h flo8s a#d others that are less se#siti(e to a 363small #umber of lar*e errors at hi*h flo8s [Lettenmaier and Wood, 1663B. ?he M=C=M2', 365method does #ot re>uire a# a %riori sub7ecti(e 8ei*hti#* to the multi%le o%timi"atio# criteria, but 364e(ol(es to8ard a set of S#o#2domi#atedS Pareto solutio#s. B+ defi#itio#, for a set of ob7ecti(es, 361t8o solutio#s 8ill #ot domi#ate o#e a#other if the+ ha(e the %ro%ert+ that mo(i#* from o#e 366solutio# to a#other results i# the im%ro(eme#t of o#e ob7ecti(e 8hile causi#* deterioratio# i# o#e /00or more others, usi#*, i# the case of M=C=M2',, ra#:2based assessme#ts of ob7ecti(es ["u0ta /01et al., 1666A 1rugt et al., 2003B. !i*ure 1 sho8s the V$C simulatio# results for the calibratio# /02%eriod a#d for the (alidatio# %eriod of 200022004. ?he flo8s for both %eriods *e#erall+ meet the /03criteria for Msatisfactor+N calibratio# based o# the criteria of Moriasi et al. @2004B, 8ith a -SE T /0/0.30 a#d absolute bias U 23G. <hile duri#* the (alidatio# %eriod se(eral of the ma;imum a##ual /03flo8 %ea:s are o(erestimated, resulti#* i# a lo8er -SE score com%ared to the calibratio# %eriod, /05the reaso#able %ea:s, lo8 flo8s, a#d satisfactor+ calibratio# a#d (alidatio# do ser(e to %ro(ide /04further (alidatio# of the dri(i#* meteorolo*+ as %lausible. /01 /06Des%ite the hi*hl+ (ariable %reci%itatio# across the stud+ re*io#, 8e a%%lied the same V$C /10calibrated %arameters from the Mata>uito basi# to the e#tire domai# a#d used the V$C model to /11*e#erate streamflo8 at the other t8o *a*e sites. ?his a(oids the %ossibilit+ of allo8i#* e;te#si(e /12calibratio# to hide meteorolo*ical data deficie#cies. ?he simulated flo8s for the %eriod 20002 /132004 for each site, a#d the associated statistics, are i# !i*ures 6 a#d 10. ?he simulated flo8s o# /1/a(era*e sho8 little bias i# both locatio#s. ?he Claro 9i(er -SElo* (alue is lo8, reflecti#* the 34 31
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/13u#derestimatio# of lo8 flo8s a#d o(erestimatio# of %ea: flo8s duri#* the simulatio# %eriod, /15thou*h the hi*her -SE (alue su**ests the errors at the hi*h flo8s are #ot as s+stematic. ?he /14Lo#comilla 9i(er dis%la+s a *e#eral o(erestimatio# b+ V$C of lo8 flo8s, thou*h both -SE a#d /11-SElo* are abo(e the Msatisfactor+N threshold. <hile these are #ot demo#stratio#s of the best /16h+drolo*ic model that could be de(elo%ed for each basi#, or the best that the V$C model could /20%roduce Dsi#ce #o calibratio# 8as %erformed for t8o of the three basi#sE, the+ do %ro(ide some /21further (alidatio# that the dri(i#* meteorolo*+ a%%ears %lausible, a#d does #ot a%%ear to sho8 /22a#+ s+stematic biases. /23 /2/,dditio#all+, a com%ariso# of four streamflo8 %ro%erties is sho8# i# !i*ure 11 for the three /23simulated basi#s. <e calculate the ce#ter timi#* DC?E, defi#ed as the da+ 8he# half the a##ual /25D8ater +earE flo8 (olume has %assed a *i(e# %oi#t [Stewart et al., 2003B, 8here the 8ater +ear /24ru#s from ,%ril 1 throu*h March 31. C? (alues lie 8ithi# the 211 to 14 da+ 8i#do8 com%ared to /21obser(ed (alues, i#dicati#* the s#o8 melti#* seaso# is reaso#abl+ ca%tured b+ the model D!i*ure /2611aE. ?he u#%aired Stude#tHs t2test i#dicates the distributio#s ha(e e>ual mea#s at a 3G /30si*#ifica#ce le(el. ?he 8ater +ear (olume a#d the 32da+ %ea: flo8 are s+stematicall+ /31o(erestimated b+ V$C simulatio#s, ho8e(er their mea#s are fou#d to statisticall+ e>ual 8ith the /32e;ce%tio# of the 9io Claro 32da+ %ea: flo8. Lo8 flo8s are o(er a#d u#derestimated b+ V$C /33simulatio#s but o#l+ the Lo#comilla 9i(er has mea#s that are statisticall+ differe#t D!i*ure 11dE. /3/ /339eco*#i"i#* the hi*h de%e#de#ce of this re*io# o# s#o8 melt a#d thus the im%orta#ce of this /35%rocess bei#* 8ell re%rese#ted, 8e (alidate the hi*h ele(atio# meteorolo*+ of the #e8 data set /34b+ com%ari#* V$C simulated S<E to M=D$S 12da+ s#o8 co(era*e for the si; e(e#ts bet8ee# 36 /0
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/312002 a#d 2004 Do#e ima*e %er +earE. ?he satellite ima*es 8ere selected to ca%ture the s#o8 /36co(er i# mid to late ,u*ust i# each +ear, a%%ro;imati#* the ma;imum s#o8 accumulatio# i# the //0re*io#. !ollo8i#* Maurer et al. @2003B a s#o8 de%th of 23./ mm D1 i#chE 8as used as threshold //1to i#dicate the %rese#ce of s#o8 o# the *rou#d. M=D$S s#o8 co(era*e 8as i#ter%olated to a //20.23F *rid usi#* tria#*le2based cubic i#ter%olatio#. V$C simulated S<E 8as a(era*ed to match //3the M=D$S ei*ht2da+ %eriod. Stro#* similarities i# the s%atial e;te#t are fou#d bet8ee# M=D$S ///a#d V$C simulated s#o8 co(era*e for the %eriod ,u*ust 21221, 2002 D!i*ure 12E. ?he a(era*e //3area co(ered b+ s#o8 i# the si; +ears is 142,320 a#d 154,030 :m 2 i# V$C simulatio#s a#d //5M=D$S, res%ecti(el+. ?his re%rese#ts o#l+ a 3G error i# the s#o82co(ered area simulated b+ the //4V$C model. //1 //6?able 5 is a co#ti#*e#c+ table of relati(e fre>ue#cies of s#o8I#o s#o8 i# M=D$S a#d V$C /30simulated S<E. <e i#clude all of the %i;els for the si; selected %eriods Dtotal 1140E. ?he /31#umber of %i;els classified as s#o8 or #o s#o8 is similar i# V$C a#d M=D$S 8ith fre>ue#cies /32of 0.31 a#d 0.26 for #o s#o8 a#d s#o8 classificatio#, res%ecti(el+. Co#(ersel+ the occurre#ce of /33misclassified s#o8I#o s#o8 e(e#ts is >uite lo8, o# the order of 5G i#dicati#* a# e;celle#t /3/a*reeme#t bet8ee# both data sources. ?he Oeid:e S:ill Score for this data is 0.42, sho8i#* that /33the a*reeme#t bet8ee# obser(ed a#d V$C simulated s#o8 co(er is u#li:el+ to be due to cha#ce. /35 /34!i#all+, the successful (alidatio# of the streamflo8 a#d simulated s#o8 co(er 8ith obser(atio#s /31also im%licitl+ su%%orts the *ridded tem%eratures i# the data set. 9easo#able e#d of seaso# s#o8 /36e;te#t a#d 8ell simulated timi#* of flo8s i# s#o82domi#ated streams i#dicates that the /50tem%eratures are #ot li:el+ to be *reatl+ i# error. /1 /2
21

/51

/52). Conclusions /53$# this stud+ a# ad7usted *ridded dail+ %reci%itatio# data set is de(elo%ed for Ce#tral Chile for /5/the %eriod 16/122001. 9ai# *au*e data are used to correct the i#accuracies i# the re%rese#tatio# /53of oro*ra%hic distributio# of %reci%itatio# e;iste#t i# the a(ailable *lobal *ridded data set. /55,d7usted *ridded data are (alidated usi#* statio# obser(atio#s a#d h+drolo*ical model /54simulatio#s. /51 /56$# data2s%arse re*io#s, a sim%le co:ri*i#* method that i#cor%orates to%o*ra%hic ele(atio# as /40co(ariate ca# be successfull+ used to im%ro(e the s%atial re%rese#tatio# of *ridded %reci%itatio# /41i# areas 8ith com%le; terrai#. , mo#th2to2mo#th ad7ustme#t ca# effecti(el+ remo(e biases i# /42%reci%itatio# (alues haili#* from fe8 or #o#e;iste#t rai# *au*e obser(atio#s. ?he im%ro(eme#ts /43i# e;treme dail+ %reci%itatio# statistics are deri(ed from the im%ro(ed lar*e2scale /4/characteri"atio# of %reci%itatio# a#d its ele(atio# de%e#de#ceA e;cludi#* i#di(idual obser(atio# /43statio#s had mi#or effects o# the e;treme %reci%itatio# statistics at #earb+ *rid cells. /45 /44?he ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio# is able to ca%ture %reci%itatio# e#ha#ceme#t due to oro*ra%h+ /41i# the re*io# 8ith a *ood re%rese#tatio# of a##ual totals a#d %reci%itatio# i#te#sit+. Oo8e(er the /46duratio# of storm e(e#ts is sli*htl+ shorter tha# obser(ed %erha%s as a result of com%ari#* a 530 /10:m2 *rid cell to the smaller, more discrete, areal %reci%itatio# re%rese#ted b+ three a(era*ed rai# /11*au*es. ?he statistics of e;treme %reci%itatio# e(e#ts are 8ell ca%tured b+ the ad7usted *ridded /12data set, 8hich e#coura*es its use for climate cha#*e a%%licatio#s. /3 //
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/13 /1/Streamflo8 simulatio#s i# three basi#s realisticall+ ca%ture hi*h a#d lo8 flo8s statistical /13%ro%erties i#dicati#* that the dri(i#* meteorolo*+ i# the ad7usted *ridded data set is 8ell /15re%rese#ted. Simulated S<E closel+ resembles satellite obser(atio#s 8hich ca# be li#:ed to a /14*ood de%ictio# of 8i#ter %reci%itatio# at hi*her ele(atio#s, des%ite the dri(i#* meteorolo*ical /11dataset #ot i#cludi#* hi*h ele(atio# statio# obser(atio#s. <hile #ot e;%licitl+ tested here, /16successful simulatio# of s#o8 co(er a#d flo8 i# s#o82domi#ated streams i#dicates that /60tem%eratures i# the *ridded data set are also reaso#able, a#d do #ot re>uire ad7ustme#t. /61 /62Based o# our results, the ad7usted dail+ *ridded %reci%itatio# data set ca# be successfull+ used /63for h+drolo*ic simulatio#s of climate (ariabilit+ a#d cha#*e i# Ce#tral Chile. ?he methodolo*+ /6/%rese#ted i# this %a%er ca# be im%leme#ted i# #umerous data2s%arse basi#s located i# /63mou#tai#ous re*io#s arou#d the *lobe 8ith o#e ca(eat. ?he se#siti(it+ of the results to the /65#umber of rai# *au*es used to obtai# %lausible ad7usted (alues 8as #ot determi#edA therefore the /64>ualit+ of the ad7usted data set 8ill be co#strai#ed b+ the de#sit+ of the local obser(atio# /61#et8or:. /66 300 Ac*no+ledgements 301?his stud+ 8as fu#ded b+ C=9!=2$--=V, *ra#t 20062340/ to the Ce#tro $#terdisci%li#ario de 302Cambio &lobal at the Po#tificia '#i(ersidad Cat)lica de Chile. , !ulbri*ht Visiti#* Scholars 303&ra#t also %ro(ided %artial su%%ort to the seco#d author. ?he authors are *rateful to Paul 30/-ie#aber a#d Mar:us Sch#orbus of the Pacific Climate $m%acts Co#sortium, '#i(ersit+ of 303Victoria, BC, Ca#ada, a#d Vatri#a Be##ett at the '. of ,las:a, !airba#:s, for %ro(idi#* u%dated /3 /5
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305a#d im%ro(ed code for the M=C=MIV$C a%%licatio#. <e are *rateful to t8o a#o#+mous 304re(ie8ers 8hose careful re(ie8 a#d hel%ful comme#ts led to substa#tial im%ro(eme#ts to this 3018or:.

/4 /1

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306Re'erences 310Adam, J. C., and D. P. Lettenmaier (2003), Adju tment !" #$!%a$ #ridded &re'i&itati!n "!r 311 ( temati' %ia , J. Geophys Res., 108(D9), 1)14. 312*rad$e(, +. ,., -. .ui$$e, /. 0. Dia1, and 2. .er#ara (2006), 34reat t! 2ater ,u&&$ie in t4e 3133r!&i'a$ Ande , Science, 312(5781), 1755)1756. 31/C4en, -., P. 5ie, J. 6. Jan!7ia8, and P. A. Ar8in (2002), 9$!%a$ Land Pre'i&itati!n: A 50)(r 313-!nt4$( Ana$( i *a ed !n 9au#e ;% er<ati!n , J. Hydrometeorology, 3(3), 249)266. 315C4er8auer, =. A., L. C. *!7$in#, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2003), .aria%$e in"i$trati!n 'a&a'it( '!$d 314$and &r!'e m!de$ u&date , Global Plan. Change, 38, 151)159. 311C! #r!<e, *. A., D. L!4mann, =. 6. -it'4e$$, P. +. /!u er, 6. 0. 2!!d, J. C. ,'4aa8e, A. 316+!%!'8, C. -ar 4a$$, J. ,4e""ie$d, >. Duan, L. Lu!, +. 2. /i##in , +. 3. Pin8er, J. D. 3ar&$e(, 320and J. -en# (2003), +ea$)time and retr! &e'ti<e "!r'in# in t4e ?!rt4 Ameri'an Land Data 321A imi$ati!n ,( tem (?LDA,) &r!je't, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D22), 8842. 322Da$(, C., +. P. ?ei$ !n, and D. L. P4i$$i& (1994), A tati ti'a$)t!&!#ra&4i' m!de$ "!r ma&&in# 323'$imat!$!#i'a$ &re'i&itati!n !<er m!untain!u terrain, Jo rnal o! "pplied #eteorology, 33, 140) 32/158. 323de 9!n'a$<e , L. 9. 9., 2. J. ,4utt$e7!rt4, *. ?ij en, 6. J. *ur8e, J. A. -aren#!, ,. C. C4!u, 325P. /!u er, and D. L. 3!$$ (2006), 6<a$uati!n !" m!de$)deri<ed and rem!te$( en ed &re'i&itati!n 324&r!du't "!r '!ntinenta$ ,!ut4 Ameri'a, J. Geophys. Res., 111(D16), D16113. 321D9A (1987), *a$an'e 4idri'! de C4i$e Rep., -ini teri! de ;%ra Pu%$i'a , Dire''i!n 9enera$ de 326A#ua , ,antia#!, C4i$e. 330Di!dat!, ?., and -. Ce''are$$i (2005), @nter&!$ati!n &r!'e e u in# mu$ti<ariate #e! tati ti' 331"!r ma&&in# !" '$imat!$!#i'a$ &re'i&itati!n mean in t4e ,anni! -!untain ( !ut4ern @ta$(), $arth 332S r!ace Processes and %and!orms, 30(3), 259)268. 333d! ,ant! , C. A. C., C. -. A. ?ea$e, 3. .. +. +a!, and *. *. da ,i$<a (2011), 3rend in indi'e 33/"!r eBtreme in dai$( tem&erature and &re'i&itati!n !<er Ata4, A,A, &nt. J. Climatol., 31(12), 3331813)1822. 3350a$<e(, -., and +. 9arreaud (2007), 2intertime Pre'i&itati!n 6&i !de in Centra$ C4i$e: 334A !'iated -ete!r!$!#i'a$ C!nditi!n and ;r!#ra&4i' @n"$uen'e , J. Hydrometeorology, 8(2), 331171)193. 3360a$<e(, -., and +. D. 9arreaud (2009), +e#i!na$ '!!$in# in a 7armin# 7!r$d: +e'ent 3/0tem&erature trend in t4e !ut4ea t Pa'i"i' and a$!n# t4e 7e t '!a t !" u%tr!&i'a$ ,!ut4 3/1Ameri'a (1979CD8211E2006), J. Geophys. Res., 11'(D4), D04102. 3/29arreaud, +. D., -. .ui$$e, +. C!m&a#nu''i, and J. -aren#! (2009), Pre ent)da( ,!ut4 3/3Ameri'an '$imate, Palaeogeography( Palaeoclimatology( Palaeoecology, 281(3F4), 180)195. 3//9u&ta, /. .., L. A. *a tida , ,. ,!r!! 4ian, 2. J. ,4utt$e7!rt4, and G. L. Han# (1999), 3/3Parameter e timati!n !" a $and ur"a'e '4eme u in# mu$ti'riteria met4!d , J. Geophys Res., 3/510'(D16), 19491F19503, d!i:19410.11029I11999JD900154. 3/4/a$$, D. =., 9. ,. +i## , and .. .. ,a$!m!n !n (2006), A&dated dai$(. -;D@,I3erra ,n!7 3/1C!<er 8)Da( L3 9$!%a$ 0.05de# C-9 .005, Di#ita$ media, edited, ?ati!na$ ,n!7 and @'e Data 3/6Center, *!u$der, C!$!rad! A,A. 330/e<e i, J. A., J. D. @ t!8, and A. L. 0$int (1992), Pre'i&itati!n 6 timati!n in -!untain!u 3errain 331A in# -u$ti<ariate 9e! tati ti' . Part @: ,tru'tura$ Ana$( i , Jo rnal o! "pplied #eteorology, 33231(7), 661)676. 333/u""man, 9. J., +. 0. Ad$er, -. -. -!rri e(, D. 3. *!$<in, ,. Curti , +. J!('e, *. -'9a<!'8, 33/and J. ,u 8ind (2001), 9$!%a$ Pre'i&itati!n at ;ne)De#ree Dai$( +e !$uti!n "r!m -u$ti ate$$ite 333;% er<ati!n , J. Hydrometeorology, 2(1), 36)50. 335/u""man, 9. J., D. 3. *!$<in, 6. J. ?e$8in, D. *. 2!$"", +. 0. Ad$er, 9. 9u, H. /!n#, =. P. 334*!7man, and 6. 0. ,t!'8er (2007), 34e 3+-- -u$ti ate$$ite Pre'i&itati!n Ana$( i (3-PA): /6 30
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26

504;MD!nne$$, 9., *. ?ij en, and D. P. Lettenmaier (1999), A im&$e a$#!rit4m "!r #eneratin# 501 tream"$!7 net7!r8 "!r #rid)%a ed, ma'r! 'a$e 4(dr!$!#i'a$ m!de$ , Hydrol. Processes, 13(8), 5061269)1275. 510Peter !n, 3. C., +. .! e, +. ,'4m!(er, and .. +a1u<aN< (1998), 9$!%a$ 4i t!ri'a$ '$imat!$!#( 511net7!r8 (9/C?) Lua$it( '!ntr!$ !" m!nt4$( tem&erature data, &nt. J. Climatol., 18(11), 1169) 5121179. 513+u%i!)O$<are1, 6., and J. -'P4ee (2010), Pattern !" &atia$ and tem&!ra$ <aria%i$it( in 51/ tream"$!7 re'!rd in !ut4 'entra$ C4i$e in t4e &eri!d 1952F2003, 3ater Reso r. Res., '1, 513205514, d!i:05510.01029I020092+007982. 515,4e""ie$d, J., and 6. 0. 2!!d (2007), C4ara'teri ti' !" #$!%a$ and re#i!na$ dr!u#4t, 1950)2000: 514Ana$( i !" !i$ m!i ture data "r!m !"")$ine imu$ati!n !" t4e terre tria$ 4(dr!$!#i' '('$e, J. 511Geophys. Res., 112(D17), D17115. 516,4e""ie$d, J., 9. 9!teti, and 6. 0. 2!!d (2006), De<e$!&ment !" a 50)(r 4i#4)re !$uti!n #$!%a$ 520data et !" mete!r!$!#i'a$ "!r'in# "!r $and ur"a'e m!de$in#, J. Climate, 10(13), 3088)3111. 521,i$<a, .. *. ,., .. 6. =!u 8(, 2. ,4i, and +. 2. /i##in (2007), An @m&r!<ed 9ridded /i t!ri'a$ 522Dai$( Pre'i&itati!n Ana$( i "!r *ra1i$, J. Hydrometeorology, 8(4), 847)861. 523,te7art, @. 3., D. +. Ca(an, and -. D. Dettin#er (2005), C4an#e t!7ard ear$ier tream"$!7 52/timin# a'r! 7e tern ?!rt4 Ameri'a, J. Climate, 18(8), 1136)1155. 523.i'una, ,., +. D. 9arreaud, and J. -'P4ee (2011), C$imate '4an#e im&a't !n t4e 4(dr!$!#( !" 525a n!7me$t dri<en %a in in emiarid C4i$e, Climatic Change, 10/, 469)488, d!i: 524410.1007I 10584)10010)19888)10584. 521.ru#t, J. A., /. .. 9u&ta, L. A. *a tida , 2. *!uten, and ,. ,!r!! 4ian (2003), 6""e'ti<e and 526e""i'ient a$#!rit4m "!r mu$ti!%je'ti<e !&timi1ati!n !" 4(dr!$!#i' m!de$ , 3ater Reso r. Res., 53030(8), 1214. 5312i$8 , D. ,. (2006), Statistical #ethods in the "tmospheric Sciences( 2 ed. , 627 &&., A'ademi' 532Pre , ?e7 H!r8, ?H, A,A. 5332i$8 , D. ,., and +. L. 2i$%( (1999), 34e 7eat4er #enerati!n #ame: a re<ie7 !" t!'4a ti' 53/7eat4er m!de$ , Prog. Phys. Geography, 23(3), 329)357. 5332i$$m!tt, C. J., and =. -at uura (2001), 3erre tria$ air tem&erature and &re'i&itati!n: m!nt4$( 535and annua$ time erie (1950F1999) (.er i!n 1.02) Rep., Center "!r C$imati' +e ear'4, 534Ani<er it( !" De$a7are, ?e7ar8, D6, A,A. 531Ha&!, P. ;., /. .. 9u&ta, and ,. ,!r!! 4ian (1998), -u$ti)!%je'ti<e #$!%a$ !&timi1ati!n "!r 5364(dr!$!#i' m!de$ , J. Hydrol., 20', 83)97. 5/0He<je<i'4, .. (1972), Probability and Statistics in Hydrology, 2ater +e !ur'e Pu%$i'ati!n , 0t. 5/1C!$$in , C;, A,A. 5/2G4an#, 5., and 0. Han# (2004), +C$imDeB (1.0) A er 9uide Rep., C$imate +e ear'4 *ran'4, 5/36n<ir!nment Canada, D!7n <ie7, ;ntari!, Canada. 5//G4an#, 5., 6. A#ui$ar, ,. ,en !(, /. -e$8!n(an, A. 3a#i(e<a, ?. A4med, ?. =uta$ad1e, 0. 5/3+a4im1ade4, A. 3a#4i&!ur, 3. /. /ant! 4, P. A$%ert, -. ,ema7i, -. =aram A$i, -. /. ,aid A$) 5/5,4a%i%i, G. A$);u$an, 3. Gatari, @. A$ Dean =4e$et, ,. /am!ud, +. ,a#ir, -. Demir'an, -. 68en, 5/4-. Adi#u1e$, L. A$eBander, 3. C. Peter !n, and 3. 2a$$i (2005), 3rend in -idd$e 6a t '$imate 5/1eBtreme indi'e "r!m 1950 t! 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110(D22), D22104. 5/6 530

33 3/

27

531,able 1 % -ist o' statistical .uantities and descri tions.


/ame 963% 966% P9CP?=? C<D CDD SD$$ 93mm $escri tion ,##ual total %reci%itatio# 8he# rai#fall T 63th %erce#tile ,##ual total %reci%itatio# 8he# rai#fall T 66th %erce#tile ,##ual total %reci%itatio# i# 8et da+s D8ith dail+ rai#fall, 99 TR1mmE Co#secuti(e 8et da+sC lar*est #umber of co#secuti(e 8et da+s 8ith 99 TR1mm Co#secuti(e dr+ da+sC lar*est #umber of co#secuti(e dr+ da+s 8ith 99 UR1mm Sim%le dail+ i#te#sit+ i#de;C mea# a##ual i#te#sit+ for 99 T R 1 mm ,##ual cou#t of da+s 8ith Preci%itatio# TR 3 mm

920mm 9P1d

,##ual cou#t of da+s 8ith Preci%itatio# TR 20 mm Ma;imum 1 da+ %reci%itatio# i# the +ear

9P3d P< PD P<<IPDD P<DIPD<

Ma;imum 3 da+s %reci%itatio# i# the +ear Probabilit+ of <et da+s Probabilit+ of Dr+ da+s Probabilit+ of a 8et Idr+ da+ follo8ed b+ a 8etIdr+ da+ Probabilit+ of a 8etIdr+ da+ follo8i#* a dr+I8et da+

532

33 35

28

533,able 2 % -ocation o' ad(usted gridded reci itation grid cells used in daily reci itation validation.

0.2)1 Grid Cell Abbreviation Loc1 Loc2 Loc3 Loc/

Grid Cell Center -atitude 23/.343 23/.143 233.143 235.123

Grid Cell Center -ongitude 240.143 241.123 241.123 241.523

53/ 533 535 534

34 31

29

531,able 3 % 2or the cross%validation3 correlation coe''icients bet+een observed and ad(usted daily reci itation

536statistical arameters. 4old values indicate the null hy othesis o' e.ual means cannot be re(ected 5at 670.0)8 550based on a t%test.
R9) -oc1 -oc2 -oc3 -oc# 0.>9 0.>> 0.#0 0.32 :RC,;, 0.9) 0.62 0.1/ 0.@? "$II 0.?? 0.>3 0.30 0.)? R20mm 0.@) 0.@0 0.11 0.?0 C<$ 0.21 0./3 0.23 0.00 R=1d 0.?? 0.?9 0.#3 0.)>

551 552

36 50

30

553,able # % 2or the 'inal ad(usted gridded roduct3 daily reci itation statistics 'or summer 5$A28 and +inter

55/5AAA8 eriods3 19@3%200?. ;4" are observations3 A$A are ad(usted gridded meteorology.
=BS Mea# Loc1 Loc2 Loc3 Loc/ Loc1 Loc2 Loc3 Loc/ DmmE 0.01 0.1/ 0.5/ 0.50 3.10 3.5/ 13.53 4.2/ ,DJ Mea# DmmE 0.01 0.11 0.50 0.3/ 3.35 /.42 12.31 4.35 "ummer 5$A28 "tatistics =BS Std ,DJ Std DmmE DmmE 1.21 0.53 1.51 0.36 3.// 2.26 /.31 2.3/ <inter 5AAA8 "tatistics 10.11 13.65 1/.14 15.42 30./5 34.36 1/.31 22.01 Mea# Bias DmmE 0.00 20.03 20.0/ 20.04 20.23 20.62 21.03 0.12 9MSE DmmE 1.34 1.41 3.11 /.66 14.15 20.66 /5.11 23.5/ Correlatio# 20.01 0.02 0.01 20.01 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.05

553

51 52

31

555,able ) % 2or the 'inal ad(usted gridded roduct3 correlation coe''icients bet+een observed and ad(usted daily

554 reci itation statistical arameters. 4old values indicate the null hy othesis o' e.ual means cannot be 551re(ected at the )B level based on a t%test.
Loc1 Loc2 Loc3 Loc/ 966% 0.10 0.#0 0.1@ 0.31 963% 0.?0 0.>) 0.#? 0.29 P9C?=? 0.9> 0.62 0.@3 0.@? SD$$ 0.?> 0.>) 0.33 0.)? 93mm 0.31 0.51 0.>1 0.41 920mm 0.@2 0.1/ 0.53 0.43 C<D 0.34 0./3 0.23 0.00 CDD 0./3 0.31 0.43 0.21 9P1d 0.?@ 0.?9 0.#) 0.)> 9P3d 0.>1 0.)3 0.#@ 0.3?

556

53 5/

32

540,able > % Contingency table summarizing the com arisons o' M;$I" and &IC simulated sno+ cover. &alues

541are relative 're.uencies calculated as the total number o' occurrences in each category divided by the number 542o' iCels 511?08.
M;$I" V$C /o "no+ "no+ ,otal /o "no+ 0.31 0.04 0.53 "no+ 0.05 0.26 0.33 ,otal 0.5/ 0.35 1.0

543

53 55

33

54/-ist o' 2igures 543 !i*ure 1 2 &eo*ra%hic locatio# of the stud+ area i# Ce#tral Chile. !rom #orth to south the basi#s areC 9a%el, Mata>uito DMata>uito ri(er at Lica#te#E, Maule DClaro ri(er at 9au>ue# a#d Lo#comilla ri(er at Bode*aE a#d $tata ri(er basi#s. Circles i#dicate the locatio# of D&, rai# *au*es a#d stars the locatio# of the three stream *au*es used i# V$C simulatio#s !i*ure 2 2 Ma%s of a##ual %reci%itatio# for the %eriod 163121610. Source aE *ridded *lobal obser(atio#s a#d bE D&,. Preci%itatio# la%se rates for latitudi#al ba#ds 233.123 S a#d 235.123 S for cE *lobal *ridded %reci%itatio# data set a#d dE D&, data set. !i*ure 3 2 Simulated streamflo8 h+dro*ra%hs for the Mata>uito ri(er at Lica#te# 8ith the u#ad7usted *ridded %reci%itatio#, 8ith a#d 8ithout h+drolo*+ model calibratio#. !i*ure / 2 Locatio# of D&, rai# *au*e statio#s a#d ad7usted *lobal %reci%itatio# *rid %oi#ts used for (alidatio# of dail+ rai#fall. !i*ure 3 2 !or the cross2(alidatio#, scatter%lots of obser(ed a#d %redicted a(era*e mo#thl+ %reci%itatio# for the mo#ths of Ma+, Ju#e, Jul+, a#d ,u*ust. Each %oi#t re%rese#ts o#e obser(atio# statio# DabscissaE a#d i#ter%olated %reci%itatio# for the same statio# Dordi#ateE. !i*ure 5 2 !or the cross2(alidatio#, bo;%lots of statistical %arameters, 8hite re%rese#ts obser(atio#s, medium *ra+ re%rese#ts u#ad7usted *ridded data, a#d dar: *ra+ re%rese#ts ad7usted %reci%itatio# for each *eo*ra%hic locatio#. ?he bottom a#d to% li#es re%rese#t the 23th a#d 43th %erce#tiles a#d the middle li#e re%rese#ts the media#. <his:ers e;te#d from each e#d of the bo; to the ad7ace#t (alues i# the data 8ithi# 1.3 times the $#ter Wuartile 9a#*e. ?he $#ter Wuartile 9a#*e is the differe#ce bet8ee# the third a#d the first >uartile, i.e., 23th a#d 43th %erce#tiles.

54 51

34

=utliers are dis%la+ed 8ith a %lus si*#. ?he reader is referred to ?able 1 for statistical %arameter defi#itio#s. !i*ure 4 2 !or the fi#al *ridded ad7usted dataC aE ,##ual ad7usted *lobal %reci%itatio# for the %eriod 163022005 a#d bE differe#ces bet8ee# the ori*i#al *lobal *ridded a#d the ad7usted *lobal %reci%itatio# data sets. !i*ure 1 2 =bser(ed a#d Simulated mo#thl+ flo8s for the Mata>uito ri(er at Lica#te# for the calibratio# %eriod Dto% %a#elE a#d (alidatio# %eriod Dbottom %a#elE. Summar+ statistics are sho8# i# each %a#el. !i*ure 6 2 Mo#thl+ obser(ed a#d simulated flo8s for the Claro ri(er at 9au>ue#. !i*ure 10 2 Same as !i*ure 6 but for the Lo#comilla ri(er at Bode*a. !i*ure 11 2 Statistical %ro%erties of obser(ed a#d V$C simulated stream flo8s i# three basi#sC Mata>uito ri(er, Claro ri(er a#d Lo#comilla ri(er. DaE Ce#ter timi#*, DbE 8ater +ear (olume, DcE 32da+ %ea: flo8s a#d DdE 42da+ lo8 flo8s. !i*ure 12 2 Com%ariso# of s#o8 co(era*e for the %eriod ,u*ust 21221, 2002. Shaded areas i#dicate s#o8 co(era*e. aE M=D$S a#d bE V$C simulated S#o8 <ater E>ui(ale#t.

56 40

35

545
5442igure 1 % Geogra hic location o' the study area in Central Chile. 2rom north to south the basins areD Ra el3

541Mata.uito 5Mata.uito river at -icanten83 Maule 5Claro river at Rau.uen and -oncomilla river at 4odega8 546and Itata river basins. Circles indicate the location o' $GA rain gauges and stars the location o' the three 510stream gauges used in &IC simulations

41 42

36

511
5122igure 2 % Ma s o' annual reci itation 'or the eriod 19)1%19@0. "ource a8 gridded global observations and

513b8 $GA. :reci itation la se rates 'or latitudinal bands %3).12) " and %3>.12) " 'or c8 global gridded 51/ reci itation data set and d8 $GA data set.

43 4/

37

513
5152igure 3 % "imulated stream'lo+ hydrogra hs 'or the Mata.uito river at -icanten +ith the unad(usted

514gridded reci itation3 +ith and +ithout hydrology model calibration. 511

43 45

38

516

560
5612igure # % -ocation o' $GA rain gauge stations and ad(usted global

reci itation grid

oints used 'or

562validation o' daily rain'all. 563 56/ 563 565

44 41

39

564
5612igure ) % 2or the cross%validation3 scatter lots o' observed and redicted average monthly reci itation 'or

566the months o' May3 Aune3 Auly3 and August. Each oint re resents one observation station 5abscissa8 and 400inter olated reci itation 'or the same station 5ordinate8.

46 10

40

401

402
4032igure > % 2or the cross%validation3 boC lots o' statistical arameters3 +hite re resents observations3 medium

40/gray re resents unad(usted gridded data3 and dar* gray re resents ad(usted

reci itation 'or each

403geogra hic location. ,he bottom and to lines re resent the 2)th and ?)th ercentiles and the middle line 405re resents the median. <his*ers eCtend 'rom each end o' the boC to the ad(acent values in the data +ithin 1.) 404times the Inter Fuartile Range. ,he Inter Fuartile Range is the di''erence bet+een the third and the 'irst 401.uartile3 i.e.3 2)th and ?)th ercentiles. ;utliers are dis layed +ith a lus sign. ,he reader is re'erred to 406,able 1 'or statistical arameter de'initions.

11 12

41

410
4112igure ? % 2or the 'inal gridded ad(usted dataD a8 Annual ad(usted global reci itation 'or the eriod 19)0%

412200> and b8 di''erences bet+een the original global gridded and the ad(usted global reci itation data sets.
413

41/

13 1/

42

413
4152igure @ % ;bserved and "imulated monthly 'lo+s 'or the Mata.uito river at -icanten 'or the calibration

414 eriod 5to 411

anel8 and validation eriod 5bottom anel8. "ummary statistics are sho+n in each anel.

13 15

43

416
4202igure 9 % Monthly observed and simulated 'lo+s 'or the Claro river at Rau.uen.

14 11

44

421
4222igure 10 % "ame as 2igure 9 but 'or the -oncomilla river at 4odega.

423

16 60

45

42/
4232igure 11 % "tatistical ro erties o' observed and &IC simulated stream 'lo+s in three basinsD Mata.uito

425river3 Claro river and -oncomilla river. 5a8 Center timing3 5b8 +ater year volume3 5c8 3%day ea* 'lo+s and 4245d8 ?%day lo+ 'lo+s. 421

61 62

46

426
4302igure 12 % Com arison o' sno+ coverage 'or the eriod August 21%2@3 2002. "haded areas indicate sno+

431coverage. a8 M;$I" and b8 &IC simulated "no+ <ater E.uivalent. 432

63 6/

47

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