DHAKA TRIBUNE

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Monday, February 17, 2014

On the edge of order and chaos

More such pictures await unless the AL government can establish and maintain the stability and order that they have promised

Rajib Dhar

Jyoti Rahman n

t seems that every man, woman, child, their pets, even their Apple devices seem to have an opinion on what BNP should have done. Well, I am not going to add to that volume. I dont presume to lecture politicians, who have been practising their craft since before I was a twinkling in my parents eyes, on what they should have done. I can, however, revisit what I wrote exactly halfway through the Awami Leagues last term, and make an educated guess about how things could unfold from here on. [T]here are good reasons to expect an AL win in 2013 election. What happens then? AL may well win the 2013 election, but its ability to hold on to power and govern successfully will depend on four key powerbrokers in Bangladesh: the bureaucracy, the army, foreign powers, and the business sector.

is plausible is during a political crisis where the army is asked to crack down on civilian population. And let me stress the crack down not mere deployment, not a specific operation by a select unit in a faraway place like Satkhira, but a general order to kill hundreds, if not thousands, of people. The AL government has thus far managed to keep the army away from any such conflagration. With the oppositions street protests essentially ending, at least for now, the army is not expected to be asked to crack down on anyone. Hence, at least for now, Mrs Wazed is probably not fearing any coup.

years, after which your party will be back, and youll make up for the lost time with accelerated promotions and foreign trips. The two years of 1/11 rule had slightly upset this balance. But because both Awami/pro-71 types and nationalist/Islam-pasands were hurt equally, it was a wash overall. If all of a sudden it appears that there is no prospect of a non-AL government beyond 2013, a significant part of the bureaucracy will reassess the situation. One possible scenario is that anyone who lacks the strongest Awami credential (family from Gopalganj, elected into some student council in

All the prime minister has is the promise seemingly justified at this stage that she can provide order, while her rival invites the risk of chaos

Thats what I wrote in July 2011. To be sure, I got a lot of things wrong. I was fearing that a fragmented BNP would hand Awami League a narrow victory in a flawed election. The reality is that while BNP was more united than at any time in its history not a single member of any standing left the party to join the January 5 election and might have won any semi-decent election in a landslide, Mrs Wazed decided to hold an election that surpassed the 1996 or 1988 farces to rival the 1971 by-elections held under Lt Gen Niazi. Clearly, I did not see this coming. But then again, very few did. As such, the prime ministers ability to push the envelope should not be underestimated. Nonetheless, it might still be instructive to think about how the four bastions of power needed to govern Bangladesh are likely to behave from here on. The analysis is most straightforward with the army. The only likely scenario under which a military coup

syed Zakir hossain

Its slightly trickier to analyse the civilian bureaucracy, whose active co-operation is needed to govern the country. Let me reproduce what I said in July 2011: The people who make up midto-senior ranks of the bureaucracy have spent most of their working lives during the post-1990 era. Like everything else in the country, these officers are directly or indirectly categorised (by themselves, their peers, and their bosses) along partisan lines. And most officers have learnt to live with the system if your party is out of power, you cover your head, put up with the situation, and survive for five

the 1980s with a Mujibist BCL ticket, suffered under BNP) will become extremely risk averse. The result, implementation of various programmes and policies will become even more lacklustre than is already the case. But beyond worsening the quality of governance, its not clear whether the bureaucracy will actively precipitate a political crisis, let alone recreate a civilian coup like 1996. One reading of the new cabinet line up whereby the political nobodies like Dipu Moni and Rezaul Karim Heera are out and stalwarts like Tofail-Amu-Naseem are back is that the prime minister is well aware of

bureaucratic lethargy undermining her government. And nowhere would a seasoned, experienced minister be needed more than in the ministry that deals with the big end of the town. In this government, after the prime minister herself, the most important person is the commerce minister. He is the man who has to ensure that major business houses (and NGOs) are not hostile to the government. For the most important industry that matters for the economy the readymade garments Minister Tofail Ahmed is already working to ensure that the international buyers come back quickly, and stick around (the outlook for the industry is much rosier than some would have you believe). For other products, Minister Tofail will have to work with the businessmen to ensure that Dhaka markets are well supplied so that the city-folk are content. As long as the prime minister can maintain overall stability, its quite likely that the commerce minister will keep the business sector content after all, what matters most to the businessmen is certainty and stability. Stability is also the thing that foreigners ultimately want in Bangladesh. India-China-America, everyone has their agenda, and these agendas may not align. But no one wants instability in a country of 150 million Muslims. Given the distrust justified or otherwise of Tarique Rahman and Jamaat-e-Islami, and the BNP chairpersons practical difficulties in dissociating with them, the prime minister appears to have convinced the interested foreigners that she is better placed to provide stability and certainty. Thus, it appears that the powersthat-be needed to govern Bangladesh are willing to stick with a prime minister who promises order. And at least for now, its hard to see what BNP can do to alter this. But perhaps BNP doesnt need to do anything. One cannot stress enough that the prime ministers grip on the pillars-of-power rests on one and only one claim: she can provide stability. Not the spirit of 1971. Not development records. Not Digital Bangladesh. Nothing like that. All she has is the promise seemingly justified at this stage that she can provide order, while her rival invites the risk of chaos. What can make lie of this promise? Why, events, my dear reader, events. Just consider if something like two events from the prime ministers last term were to occur now. Just imagine that there is a sudden and violent mutiny in the headquarters of RAB, killing dozens of majors and colonels, while the prime minister dithered. In 2009, when this happened at the BDR headquarters, the govern-

In the specific circumstances of early 2013, the government had gotten away with the events of May 5, 2013. But 2014 and beyond will be very different

ment wasnt even two-months old, and frankly, even people like Farhad Mazhar and Nurul Kabir propagated the downtrodden-BDR-vs-fat-catarmy line. If something like this happened now, the reaction from all quarters would be very, very different. Alternatively, just imagine that a Bangla translation of the book, In the shadow of the sword: The birth of Islam and the rise of the global Arab empire, is associated with Hassanul Huq Inu or some other leftist minister of the current government, the word is spread around the Bangla cyberspace rapidly, and a hitherto little-known group of Islamists, based in the capitals major education institutions, organise a million-strong march in the heart of the capital? You see, in the specific circumstances of early 2013, the government had gotten away with the events of May 5, 2013. But 2014 and beyond will be very different. The prime minister has told the powers-that-be that she will keep order. The reality, however, is that she stands on the precipice of chaos, for the simple reason that Bangladesh a super-densely populated humid swamp is always at the edge of chaos. Usually, mandate from a democratic election, or the prospect of the next one, keeps us from falling over the cliff. By taking away the option of a democratic election, the prime minister has effectively put a ticking time bomb on herself. l Jyoti Rahman is a political blogger. This article was first published on jrahman. wordpress.com.