Patrick Fox Executive

Candidate Analysis: MD Democratic Gubernatorial Primaries

Given the prominent background and universal recognition of Anthony Brown and his outstanding success in polls, he is most likely to win the democratic gubernatorial nomination for Maryland. Maryland Gubernatorial races have always been incredibly democratic. The states gubernatorial position has almost always been a democratic stronghold, with 29 democratic and 6 republican governors serving since 1842, excluding one Whig, one American party, one Unionist (Past Governors Bios). Maryland has a very liberal population, passing referendums on gay marriage, and electing one of the most liberal state legislatures in the country, which has passed strict gun control measures, abolished the death penalty, and allowed small quantities of marijuana (Liberal Maryland Senate). This being said, it is safe to assume that the GOP candidates running do not have a good chance at beating even the weakest democratic candidates. This is an analysis of the democratic candidates most likely to win the democratic nomination. Doug Gansler has a great chance at becoming gubernatorial candidate, but his stellar background and funding does not show in the polls. Gansler started in 2013 with $5.2M because of his long term as Attorney General without other bids for candidacies, and pulls in donations at a fast clip. By the end of the race, he is predicted to have from 6 to 8 million on hand, higher than all the other candidates (Analysis of MD Fundraising). After Anthony Brown pulled in Ulman as his running mate, the race became something of a two- candidate battle, with Heather Mizeur not really seen as a threat (The Democrats Running For Governor). Ulmans supporters moved on to support Browns campaign, leaving Gansler behind the Brown-Ulman duo by 20 points (Wagner). Ganslers past achievements and positions far outshine most of his opposition. While Governor O Malley struggled to keep Maryland alive in 2012 while passing unpopular legislation with the help of his Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, Gansler

Patrick Fox Executive spearheaded much progressive legislation, including starting the drive towards acceptance for Same- Sex Marriage in Maryland. He is renowned for his wildly successful crusade against pollution in the Chesapeake Bay, settling some of the largest environmental suits of their kinds in the country. Gansler fights for better health coverage for Marylanders, and is a pioneer in consumer protection laws, with a program compensating for mortgage frauds (Douglas F. Gansler). It is safe to say that Gansler has a much more successful record than his opponents, and claims to be the anti- establishment candidate, challenging the existing executives in Annapolis such as Anthony Brown (Dresser). Gansler has garnered some support from endorsers, but claims that he has not yet kicked his campaign into full throttle. Gansler figures that this early in the race, most people are not paying close attention and that he will save his chips for later (The Democrats Running For Governor). Nonetheless, he has already gained the support of the AFL-CIO, SEIU, and NARAL (Wagner). More publicity closer to election time can mean better chances of winning. This in mind, Gansler may have a significant competitive edge over Brown even though he is not incredibly popular yet. 33% of voters remain undecided and it is still possible for Gansler to pull ahead (Wagner). Heather Mizeur is far behind the races, and is not really considered a major competitor in the election. She started the race with just over $300K in campaign funds, and garnered $1M in mostly $250 donations to apply for state campaign funding aid, and is expected to have $1.5- 2.5M by the end of the race (Analysis of MD Fundraising). Her lack of campaign funding shows in the polls: with only 5% support in most polls, she is far behind (Wagner). Her background is as a state delegate for district 20 in Montgomery County (Heather Mizeur). With a less distinguished position, she was not very widely known outside of district 20 before the election (Wagner). Anthony Brown and Doug Gansler both had high profile executive and judicial positions before the elections. Mizeur has a good record as a legislator, receiving several awards for her work. She introduced and passed many healthcare laws expanding Medicare and Medicaid and increasing age limits for parents plans. Mizeur is a key environmental legislator and initiated a strict anti- fracking law. She worked to increase education funding in Maryland

Patrick Fox Executive as vice chair of the education subcommittee. She wants to spearhead an effort to legalize and regulate Marijuana in Maryland (Heather Mizeur). Mizeur sports a meager list of endorsers. Mostly comprised of residents of Takoma Park, her home town, her list cant compete with the high profile figures and organizations backing Brown, Ulman, and Gansler (Mizeur). Her running mate is Delman Coates, an activist preacher never having held elected office before with two degrees in religion (Mizeur: Lieutenant Governer). Anthony Brown served under Governor O Malley as Lt. Governor, and has his endorsement to succeed him (Anthony Brown). Early in the race, another democratic candidate, Kenneth Ulman ran against Brown, Gansler, and the since declined Peter Franchot. Brown and Ulman both had limited campaign funds and couldnt compete with Doug Ganslers extensive war chest. By agreeing to run as Browns running mate, Ulman could combine their electoral coffers into one slightly greater than that of Ganslers (The Democrats Running For MD Governor). Maryland law states that gubernatorial candidates that are part of the General Assembly cannot fundraise while it is in session. Fortunately for Brown, his running mate Kenneth Ulman is not part of the General Assembly. Fundraising can continue in the name of Ulman, even though Ulman and Brown are on the same ballot. On the other hand, Doug Gansler and his running mate are both part of the General Assembly, and he cannot fundraise while it is in session. Daniel Clements, a supporter of Ganslers, took the loophole to the court, which claimed that Ulman was a different candidate under MD law. In this way, the Brown- Ulman campaign has a significant fundraising advantage over Gansler. Originally starting with a combined $3.7M, they rivaled Ganslers $5.2M. But with advantages by the law and more aggressive fundraising, they claim they will have about $6M on hand in January 2014. At Ganslers fundraising rate, one can expect something between $6 and 8M by January (Maryland Campaign Finance Law). Brown does incredibly well in polls. He is favored over Gansler by 20 points, leading the polls with 41% support (Wagner). He has wide recognition for his long held position as Lt. Governor. As Lieutenant Governor, he was in charge of implementing the Affordable Care Act in Maryland, leading the council. Unfortunately, only 1,284 Marylanders got

Patrick Fox Executive insurance while 73,000 Marylanders lost insurance plans. He did not seem to make much of an effort to warn the public, and it was his biggest setback as Lt. Governor (Affordable Care Act Rollout). Serving under O Malley did not particularly aid Browns image. The administration struggled with budget setbacks and were forced to increase taxes and cut significant amounts of money from education and other public services. The O Malley administration has passed several unpopular laws, especially the gas tax, which had a more than 70% disapproval rating. Gansler is seen as the anti- establishment candidate because of his activist position as Attorney General, completing many tasks while Annapolis struggled with budget issues (Dresser). Nonetheless, Brown is far more universally recognized. Brown has an incredible amount of endorsements, about 180, including the governor, two former attorneys general, six congress members, the mayor of Baltimore, 38 state delegates, and many, many more (Anthony Brown). He has 64% name recognition even though only about 25% of Marylanders vote in gubernatorial primaries. The race is divided racially between Gansler and Brown. Brown has 56% of the African American vote while Gansler only has 12%. The rest of the population is locked in a dead heat of 29- 28 (Wagner). Browns biggest aid is his reputation. He is universally known, and people are willing to vote for him. Because of Anthony Browns universal popularity, and no fault of the other two candidates, Brown will probably be the democratic nomination. It is incredibly difficult to come back from a 20 point deficit. If the race were held now, Brown would win by an overwhelming majority. Perhaps Gansler has a chance at coming back if he can kick his campaign into powerful full drive while focusing on African Americans, but the race almost already seems decided from the polls and money.

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Works Cited "Affordable Care Act Rollout." WBAL TV. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.wbaltv.com/news/health/health-care-reform/affordable-care-act-rolloutpolitically-thorny-for-anthony-brown/-/21961900/22976136/-/c1rwurz/-/index.html>. "Analysis of MD Fundraising." Maryland Juice. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.marylandjuice.com/2013/10/analysis-md-public-financing-mayimpact.html>. "Anthony Brown." Anthony Brown, Governor 2014. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://anthonybrown.com/>. "The Democrats Running for Governor." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://freestaterblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/maryland-2014part-1-democratsrunning.html>. "Douglas F. Gansler." Maryland Attorney General. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.oag.state.md.us/>. Dresser, Micheal. "Gansler to launch campaign for governor." Baltimore Sun. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-09-24/news/bs-md-gansler-campaign20130923_1_change-maryland-larry-hogan-doug-gansler>. "Heather Mizeur." Heather Mizeur. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.heathermizeur.com/>. "Liberal Maryland Senate." Hyper Vocal. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://hypervocal.com/politics/2013/maryland-senate-liberal/>.

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"Maryland Campaign Finance Law." Fredrick News Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/politics_and_government/governmental_and_ political_topics/elections/maryland-campaign-finance-law-is-unfair-tocandidates/article_54273666-5968-5394-9ae0-64b122aa36e9.html>. "Mizeur: Lieutenant Govenor." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/heather-mizeurs-lieutenant-governorchoice-pastor-delman-coates-says-the-post-is-an-extenstion-of-his-servantleadership/2013/11/13/09e970be-4c98-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html>. "Past Governers Bios." National Governer's Association. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governors-bios/page_maryland.html>. Wagner, John. "Brown Tops Two Democratic Rivals." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/brown-tops-two-democraticrivals-in-early-poll-in-marylands-2014-race-for-governor/2013/10/17/cab0d8ba-36c611e3-80c6-7e6dd8d22d8f_story.html>. - - -. "Gansler unveils more than 40 endorsements." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/gansler-unveils-more-than-40endorsements-from-his-home-jurisdiction-of-montgomery/2013/12/10/358c9b0a-61ac11e3-bf45-61f69f54fc5f_story.html>.

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Bibliography "Anthony Brown Key Votes." Vote Smart. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/19344/anthony-brown/12/campaign-financeand-elections>. "Heather Mizeur Making Smart Moves." Baltimore Sun. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-rodricks-111420131113,0,2717954.column>. "ics Justice Education Chesapeake Bay Beat & Environment Health Business Sports VOTER POLL SHOWS BROWN AHEAD OF GANSLER, PARTISAN AGREEMENT ON SHUTDOWNGovernment ShutdownMaryland LinePoliticsSocial 17 October 2013 By Colleen Wilson." Capital News Service. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://cnsmaryland.org/2013/10/17/voter-poll-shows-brown-ahead-of-gansler-partisanagreement-on-shutdown/>. "Maryland's Tilted Playing Field." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://thewashingtonpost.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx>. "Maryland Troopers Endorse Anthony Brown." Washington Post. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/maryland-troopers-organizationendorses-anthony-brown-as-next-governor/2013/12/20/88a781b6-69ee-11e3-ae5622de072140a2_story.html>. "Maryland Watch: Why Doug Gansler Will Beat the Snot Out of Anthony Brown." Maryland Watch. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.daggerpress.com/2012/12/16/marylandwatch-why-doug-gansler-will-beat-the-snot-out-of-anthony-brown/>.

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"Mizeur plans entrance into MD gubernatorial race." Heather Mizeur. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.heathermizeur.com/news/wapo-mizeur-plans-entrance-into-marylandgubernatorial-contest-on-wednesday>. "Mizeur touts endorsements from key areas, straw poll victory." Poliglot. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-rodricks-111420131113,0,2717954.column>. "Purported Doug Gansler party video surfaces." WLJA TV. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://www.wjla.com/articles/2013/10/purported-doug-gansler-party-video-surfaces96253.html>. "2014 gubernatorial election." 2014 gubernatorial election. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 Jan. 2014. <http://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2014/index.html>.

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Web Site Evaluation Form

1. URL of the Website: http://_ http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/past-governorsbios/page_maryland.html_____________________________________________________ 2. Website Title: __National Governers Association______________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? __________same_______________________________________________________________ _____ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? Straightforward list of governers ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 7. When was this page written or last updated? _Before Malleys Governorship_____________________________________ 8. Rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment

==================================================================== ========== ==================================================================== ========== 1. URL of the Website: http://_________ http://hypervocal.com/politics/2013/maryland-senateliberal/_____________________________________________ 2. Website Title: ____________Hyper Vocal____________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? __________________________Individual___________________________________________ _________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? Straghtforward fact reciting ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? _____recently___________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment

==================================================================== ==========

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==================================================================== ========== 1. URL of the Website: http://________ http://www.marylandjuice.com/2013/10/analysis-md-publicfinancing-may-impact.html______________________________________________ 2. Website Title: ______________________Maryald Juice_________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? _______________________________Individual______________________________________ _________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? ____________________________Press releases__________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? __Debember______________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment 1. URL of the Website: http://_________ http://freestaterblog.blogspot.com/2013/08/maryland2014part-1-democrats-running.html_____________________________________________ 2. Website Title: ________________Washington Post________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? ____________________Editorialist________________________________________________ __________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? _____________________________Published in Post_________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? ____December____________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment 1. URL of the Website: http://__________ http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/mdpolitics/brown-tops-two-democratic-rivals-in-early-poll-in-marylands-2014-race-forgovernor/2013/10/17/cab0d8ba-36c6-11e3-80c67e6dd8d22d8f_story.html____________________________________________

2. Website Title: __Washington Post______________________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website?

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_____________Post_____________________________________________________________ ____ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? _____________________National Paper_________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? ________________December________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment

1. URL of the Website: http:// http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-09-24/news/bs-mdgansler-campaign-20130923_1_change-maryland-larry-hogan-doug-gansler__

____________________________________________________

2. Website Title: _________Baltimore Sun_______________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? ___________Bmore sun___________________________________________________________________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? ______________________________newspaper______________________________________ __________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? _early in race_______________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment 1. URL of the Website: http://____________ http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/mdpolitics/gansler-unveils-more-than-40-endorsements-from-his-home-jurisdiction-ofmontgomery/2013/12/10/358c9b0a-61ac-11e3-bf4561f69f54fc5f_story.html__________________________________________

2. Website Title: _____________Gansler endorsements___________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? ___________________________Wapo_____________________________________________ ______ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? ___________________________________post_______________________________________ ____ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________

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6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? ______december__________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment 1. URL of the Website: http://____Heathermizeur.org__________________________________________________ 2. Website Title: ___________Heather Mizweur_____________________________________________________ 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? _________________________________Heather Mizeur_____________________________________________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? Yes, fool_________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? ____today____________________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment 1. URL of the Website: http://_______ http://anthonybrown.com/_______________________________________________ 2. Website Title: ______A Brown 3. What organization and/or individual created this website? ____________________anthony B__________________________________________________________ 4. Can you rely on this information? Yes No Why or why not? ___________________Yes, Fool.___________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Is the material: ___Primary/Original ___Secondary/Derived? 9. When was this page written or last updated? ____________today____________________________ 10. Please rate this web page. use with caution good, basic information excellent for the assignment