Open Briefing | 1

Intelligence brief | 21 February 2014

Qatari aid, finance and foreign policy in Sudan


Summary
1) What financial assistance has the Qatari government provided to Sudan since
September 2011?
There i limited open ource intelligence regarding the financial aitance pro!ided
by Qatar to Sudan" #t i $no%n that in 2012&1', Qatar pledged (2 billion )*S+,
through the purchae of multi&ector treaury bond from the -entral Ban$ of
Sudan, though only (.00 million to (1". billion i thought to ha!e been dibured o
far" Qatar alo pro!ided up to (1'0". million in de!elopment aitance )%ith a
further (412 million pledged, and at leat (.4' million in in!etment" For conte/t, in
2010&11, Qatar ga!e Sudan appro/imately (00 million in aid and the !alue of Qatari
in!etment in the country o!er 2001&11 reached o!er (1". billion in total"
2) Has Qatar conditioned its funding to Sudan? What sectors has the money
been earmared for?
2 ignificant proportion of funding pro!ided by Qatar to the Sudanee go!ernment
i connected to the ecurity ituation in +arfur and the implementation of the
+arfur peace agreement" Fund are alo in!eted in pro3ect that er!e Qatar4 o%n
trategic interet, uch a agricultural pro3ect, large infratructure pro3ect and
other in!etment opportunitie" #n addition, ome fund ha!e been pro!ided to
upport the Sudanee go!ernment in it attempt to build up intitution, uch a
guaranteeing depoit in the national ban$, and upport to Sudanee monetary
policy and the Sudanee pound" Fund ha!e alo been pro!ided for Sudanee effort
to enhance in!etment opportunitie 5 for e/ample, electricity and po%er lin$age
pro3ect in cooperation %ith 6gypt"
!) What is Qatar"s stance in relation to South #ordofan and $lue %ile states?
Qatari official ha!e ta$en an increaingly acti!e diplomatic role in recent year,
ee$ing to poition themel!e a mediator and interlocutor in a number of
regional conflict, including 7emen, Syria, 8ebanon and +arfur" Qatar i alo directly
concerned %ith return on in!etment" Therefore, it i mot li$ely inclined to ha!e a
poiti!e and upporti!e approach to%ard any olution for the conflict in the outh
of Sudan" 9o%e!er, Qatar ha not ta$en any initiati!e to play the role of mediator in
relation to South :ordofan and Blue ;ile, and ha remained in the bac$ground" #t i
uncertain, though, %hether or not thi pai!e tance %ill continue if another
conflict in outh Sudan threaten Qatar4 effort to create tability and ecurity in
+arfur"
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&) Who are the policymaers driving Qatari policy on Sudan?
Former prime miniter and foreign miniter Shei$h 9amad bin <aim bin <aber 2l Thani %a the author of
Qatar4 rie to prominence a a $ey regional player" 9o%e!er, in <une 201' he %a remo!ed from both
pot by the ne% emir, Shei$h Tamim bin 9amad bin :halifa 2l Thani" 2bdullah bin ;aer bin :halifa 2l
Thani %a appointment a prime miniter and +r" :halid bin =ohammed 2l 2ttiyah a foreign miniter"
Thi change i thought to reflect a hift in foreign policy, %hereby Qatar i e/pected to maintain a lo%er
global profile" #t i too early to ae the implication of thi hift for Qatari policy to%ard Sudan"
9o%e!er, it i Qatar4 deputy prime miniter, 2hmed bin 2bdullah 2l =ahmoud, %ho ha o far largely
been reponible for policy to%ard de!elopment in Sudan, and he remain in pot at preent" >hile the
ma3ority of political deciion&ma$ing i organied around Qatar4 national leaderhip, principally the emir,
there are e!eral $ey official %ithin the =initry of Foreign 2ffair %ho %ill li$ely ha!e ome influence
o!er the implementation of Qatari policy to%ard Sudan"
#" #ntroduction
Official relation bet%een Qatar and Sudan began in 1012, %hen Sudan %a among the firt countrie to
recognie the o!ereign tate of Qatar follo%ing it independence from the *nited :ingdom the pre!iou
year" The principal %ay that hitoric relation ha!e been enhanced i through the e/change of !iit
bet%een official of the t%o countrie at different le!el" Such !iit allo% for the formation of 3oint
committee for ne% pro3ect and for the implementation and monitoring of e/iting pro3ect" Qatar ha
ob!iouly recognied Sudan4 economic potential, %hich ha been an important element in it %illingne
to in!et" 2t the ame time, Sudan ha %elcomed Qatari aid, ince the go!ernment i in great need of
additional reource follo%ing the ucceion of the oil&rich South Sudan in 2011"
Se!eral introductory remar$ hould be made in relation to an analyi of aid and financial aitance gi!en
by Qatar to Sudan?
2itance i pledged and pro!ided in many different form, including grant, conceional loan,
debt relief and in!etment" #t i neceary to differentiate bet%een thee form" 9o%e!er, the
a!ailable data i not al%ay unambiguou in thi repect"
2itance i channelled through a large number of different organiation, both go!ernmental
and non&go!ernmental, a %ell a into !ariou different ector of the Sudanee economy"
Qatar pro!ide de!elopment aid )for long&term ocioeconomic de!elopment, and humanitarian
aid )for emergency repone," Qatar alo pro!ide aid a part of international initiati!e"
+e!elopment aid ma$e up @@A of total global foreign aid pro!ided by the Qatari authoritie, the
remainder being humanitarian aid"
2ll Qatari in!etment in the region are %ithin the Bepublic of Sudan, %ith none in South Sudan"
There are multiple obtacle limiting the flo% of Qatari aid and in!etment into Sudan, uch a
the %ea$ne of Sudanee infratructure, economic mimanagement and ongoing conflict"
Cleae note, all currency figure cited in the te/t are in *S dollar"
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##" #ntelligence reDuet
1) What financial assistance has the Qatari government provided to Sudan since September 2011?
Fund are pro!ided by Qatar in the form of official development assistance )O+2 5 grant and
conceional loan,, investment )both tate and pri!ate, and humanitarian assistance )both tate and
charitable," There i limited publicly a!ailable data regarding all three type of fund pro!ided by Qatar to
Sudan during the timeframe in Duetion" 9o%e!er, the outcome of !ariou diplomatic e!ent pro!ide
ome indication of the figure in!ol!ed" The a!ailable information i ummaried in Table 1"
'able 1( +iplomatic e!ent co!ering de!elopment aitance from Qatar to Sudan in the period 2012&1'"
)vent *ate +mount +llocation 'ype
+iplomatic !iit
bet%een Shei$h Tamin
and Creident Bahir
Feb 2012 (2 bn
Treaury bond purchae 5
!aried )e"g" mining, oil
and agriculture,
#n!etment )pledged,
contribution
unconfirmed,
=eeting of #nternational
=echanim for Follo% up
to #mplementation of
+oha +ocument for
Ceace in +arfur
=ay 2012
('1 mn
9ealth centre, chool
and de!elopment
pro3ect
9umanitarian
aitance )pledged,
contribution
unconfirmed,
(E mn
Begional 2uthority of
+arfur
9umanitarian
aitance )pledged,
contribution
unconfirmed,
FiitGinaugural ceremony <une 2012 (20@ mn
6lectricity line carrier
pro3ect
#n!etment 5 pro3ect
finance
;ile Falley Forum Sept 2012 (1'. mn Tourim and antiDuitie #n!etment 5 loan
+oha -onference 2pr 201'
(.00 mn
(@@ mn contributed up
front
=i/ed O+2 and
conceional loan
(200 mn
+arfur +e!elopment
Ban$ capital
-onceional loan
and grant
+uring thi period, Qatar pledged ,2 billion through the purchae of treaury bond to help the -entral
Ban$ of Sudan tabilie the local currency" There are conflicting report on ho% much the Qatari
authoritie ha!e actually dibured to purchae the bond, %ith etimate ranging from ,-00 million to
,1(- billion( Financial authoritie in :hartoum are particularly eniti!e %ith regard to information about
the pledge, a it greatly affect currency depreciation, %hich the ruling ;ational -ongre Carty );-C, and
the -entral Ban$ of Sudan are trying to limit" Qatari moti!e for pro!iding financial upport to Sudan4
;-C go!ernment could be in part baed on protecting e/iting Qatari in!etment in real etate and
agriculture"

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The relati!e ignificance of Qatari financial aitance to Sudan
-ompetition for 2rab Hulf tate in!etment i fierce among ;orth 2frican countrie truggling %ith e!ere
economic and ecurity challenge" Cublic commentary on the in!etment and financial upport deciion
of the *nited 2rab 6mirate, :u%ait and Qatar in 6gypt, Sudan and 2lgeria become a gauge for aeing
dometic economic propect" To that end, much ha been made of the diproportionate amount of
financial aitance pro!ided by Qatar to 6gypt 5 before the remo!al of Creident =ohamed =ori 5 rather
than Sudan, %hich ha hitorically had %arm relation %ith Qatar and i clearly in an hour of ignificant
economic need" 2lthough Sudan i the third highet recipient of aid from Qatar )%ith 6gypt and 8ibya
ran$ing firt and econd repecti!ely,, %hen Qatar4 ignificant agricultural and infratructure in!etment
in :enya are ta$en into account, Qatar4 financial and in!etment upport to Sudan appear relati!ely
ubdued" Thi may change follo%ing the recent deciion of 6gyptI -entral Ban$ to return (2 billion of the
(@ billion aitance recei!ed from Qatar during =ori4 year&long preidency"
Furthermore, Financial Trac$ing Ser!ice data re!eal that by far the mot ignificant aid donor to Sudan in
2011&14 %ere the *nited State, the *nited :ingdom, the 6uropean -ommiion and <apan, %ho
committed or contributed o!er (100 million each" >hile Qatar4 (@@ million contribution and (.00 million
total pledge at the +oha conference in 201' i ignificant, there i a Duetion o!er ho% much of Qatar4
pledge %ill actually be deli!ered"
The !alue of Qatari in!etment in Sudan o!er 2001&11 reached o!er (1". billion in total, including
e/ecuted, under e/ecution and appro!ed fund"
1
=ore recently, the Qatari go!ernment pro!ided pro3ect
finance and political upport for the Bi!er ;ile State Tranmiion 6C- Cro3ect, for %hich Creident Omar
al&Bahir ha lauded Qatar" 9o%e!er, other than thi pro3ect and ome targeted agricultural in!etment,
ignificant pot &2011 financial upport in the form of increaed in!etment by Qatar4 (110 billion
o!ereign %ealth fund, the Qatar #n!etment 2uthority, appear unli$ely" =edia report ugget that
Qatari official belie!e that depite the long&term potential and trategic opportunitie, the current
economic and political condition in Sudan are too ri$y" The late&201' protet o!er fuel ubidy remo!al
are li$ely to ha!e reinforced thi !ie%" Thi ad!ere aement %ould e/plain a delayed or talled treaury
bond purchae"
2 outlined in Table 1, ince September 2011 Qatar ha pro!ided up to ,12- million in de!elopment
aitance )%ith a further ,&12 million pledged, and ,-&! million in in!etment )foreign direct
in!etment and conceional finance," #n 2012, Qatar alo pro!ided Sudan =edical -are %ith an etimated
,-(- million to purchae land for the Catient Benefit Fund headDuarter in :hartoum )not ho%n in Table
1," #n 201', it pro!ided mainly humanitarian aid in $ind follo%ing the flood in early 201'" To put thee
figure in conte/t, the Qatari foreign minitry report an amount of Q2B '21,11E,00@ )appro/imately (00
million, in aid to the Sudanee go!ernment o!er 2010&11"
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2 re!ie% of 2id+ata databae ho% no reported Qatar to Sudan aid tranfer, though it hould be noted
that aid data i only included up to 2011"
'
#n addition, Qatar i a member of the 2rab Fund for 6conomic
and Social +e!elopment and the 2rab Ban$ for 6conomic +e!elopment in 2frica" :hartoum ha
outtanding loan %ith thee intitution, %hich ha!e pro!ided for further )nominal, conditional loan pot
2011 and may pro!ide mall le!el of debt relief in the future"
To ummarie, Qatar has provided Sudan .ith ,-00 million to ,1(- billion of a pledged ,2 billion in
bond purchases/ up to ,1!0(- million in development assistance 0.ith a further ,&12 million pledged)
and at leat ,-&! million in investment bet%een September 2011 and February 2014"
2) Has Qatar conditioned its funding to Sudan? What sectors has the money been earmared for?
Hlobally, Qatar4 foreign aid i pent a follo%?
Budgetary upport E4A
Belief aid 12A
Becontruction 0A
-ulture 4A
Boad contruction 4A
9ealth 1A
Other EA
)include fiherie, capacity building and education,
4

Figure for indi!idual countrie may differ coniderably, but the abo!e brea$do%n gi!e an indication of
Qatar4 aid prioritie"
#n relation to Sudan, ignificant funding ha been pro!ided in the conte/t of attempt to improve the
security situation in *arfur( Beyond the +arfur peace initiati!e and related financial aid, Qatar i
primarily dedicating fund for it o%n trategic economic interet, uch a in!etment in or aid for
Sudanese agricultural pro1ects to produce %heat, meat, !egetable, fruit, oil and ugar, %hich Qatar
reDuire" -urrent etimate ugget that appro/imately 00A of Qatar4 food demand are met through
import" #ndeed, many loan and in!etment pro!ided by the Hulf State to Sudan during the 1010 and
10@0 5 funded by e/ce petro dollar 5 %ere focued on de!eloping Sudan a the Hulf4 bread ba$et"
Qatar i alo financing infrastructure pro1ects/ including road and bridge, rail%ay, airport, eaport,
hotel and commercial comple/e" Of note i the =ero%e +am, %hich i one of the larget hydroelectric
dam in 2frica and undoubtedly one of Sudan4 mot important infratructure de!elopment pro3ect" The
pro3ect ha dra%n ignificant foreign direct in!etment from a number of Hulf StateK Qatar pro!ided (1.
million of finance for the pro3ect, %hich i a relati!ely mall in!etment in comparion to other Hulf State
financier"


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Qatar ha pro!ided ignificant fund to upport the Sudanee go!ernment in it attempt to build up
institutions/ uch a guaranteeing depoit in the national ban$, and to support to Sudanese monetary
policy and the Sudanee pound" Fund ha!e alo been pro!ided for Sudanee effort to enhance
investment opportunities/ for e/ample the Bi!er ;ile State electricity tranmiion line pro3ect already
mentioned"
!) What is the Qatari"s stance in relation to South #ordofan and $lue %ile states?
Qatar ha ought to garner regional influence through a combination of pro!iding aid to certain,
ometime contro!erial, element )for e/ample, 9ama or the Free Syrian 2rmy, and by playing the role
of mediator" Qatari official ha!e ta$en an increaingly acti!e diplomatic role in recent year, ee$ing to
poition themel!e a mediator and interlocutor in a number of regional conflict, including 7emen,
Syria, 8ebanon and +arfur" Qatar4 approach to regional affair i ometime decribed a a multi&
directional balancing act" Qatar ha ought to mediate regional conflict and political dipute by engaging
a %ide range of partie"
One ucce tory of thi trategy %a the +arfur peace agreement" Qatari official %or$ed o!er e!eral
year to negotiate a peaceful reolution to the armed conflict in +arfur" The agreement, %hich %a
facilitated by a 3oint 2frican *nionG*nited ;ation mediator, mar$ed a ma3or miletone in a multi&year
Qatari effort a the leader of the 2rab 8eague4 mediation group for the conflict"
Qatar eem to focu it effort to%ard etablihing a conolidated peace proce in the +arfur area" #t i
apparent that Qatar"s attempts to broer peace in the *arfur region have not been e3tended to.ards
a mediatory role for the conflict in South #ordofan and $lue %ile( -ritic point to thi a one of the
%ea$er point in the Qatari trategy to%ard Sudan, ince tenion %ith South Sudan may affect Qatari
in!etment in the north in the long term" Hi!en that Qatar i directly concerned %ith return on
in!etment, it i mot li$ely inclined to ha!e a poiti!e and upporti!e approach to%ard any olution for
the conflict in the outh of Sudan" 9o%e!er, it is uncertain .hether or not Qatar .ill limit itself to a
bacground role if another conflict in south Sudan threatens its efforts to create stability and
security in *arfur(
&) Who are the policymaers driving Qatari policy on Sudan?
Former prime miniter and foreign miniter Sheih Hamad bin 4assim bin 4aber +l 'hani %a the author
of Qatar4 rie to prominence a a $ey regional player" 9o%e!er, in <une 201' he %a remo!ed from both
pot by the ne% emir, Sheih 'amim bin Hamad bin #halifa +l 'hani )though inider e/pect him to
retain hi leaderhip poition in the Qatar #n!etment 2uthority," +bdullah bin %asser bin #halifa +l
'hani %a appointment a prime miniter and *r( #halid bin 5ohammed +l +ttiyah a foreign miniter"
Thi change i thought to reflect a hift in foreign policy, %hereby Qatar i e/pected to maintain a lo%er
global profile"
#t i too early to ae the implication of thi hift for Qatari policy to%ard Sudan" 9o%e!er, it i Qatar4
deputy prime miniter, +hmed bin +bdullah +l 5ahmoud/ %ho ha o far largely been reponible for
policy to%ard de!elopment in Sudan, and he remain in pot at preent"

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The ma3ority of political deciion&ma$ing i organied around Qatar4 national leaderhip, epecially %hen
ignificant amount of money are in!ol!ed" The emir e/ercie both legilati!e and e/ecuti!e po%er, %ith
the aitance of the -ouncil of =initer and the 2d!iory -ouncil" The mot ignificant policyma$er in
relation to foreign policy are the emir, the prime miniter, the miniter of foreign affair and, in the cae of
Sudan, the deputy prime miniter" 9o%e!er, there are e!eral other $ey official %ithin the =initry of
Foreign 2ffair %ho may ha!e ome influence o!er the implementation of Qatar4 policy to%ard Sudan"
2t the time of %riting, thee are thought to include?
Sheih +hmad $in 5ohammed $in 4abir +l 'hani/ =initerI 2itant for #nternational
-ooperation 2ffair"
*r( +hmad 5ohammad +lmurehi/ +irector of the +epartment of #nternational +e!elopment"
+mbassador 7ousef $in #halifa +bdullah +l Sada/ +irector of the +epartment of 2frican 2ffair"
H( )( 8ashid bin +bdulrahman +l %uaimi/ Qatar4 ambaador to Sudan"
Of particular note i the *epartment of International *evelopment/ %hich %a etablihed in 2000
%ithin the =initry of Foreign 2ffair" #t i reponible for organiing and de!eloping the Qatari
go!ernment4 de!elopment aitance and humanitarian aid policie"
Outide of go!ernment, it i poible that the board member and enior e/ecuti!e of organiation
o!ereeing Qatari in!etment in Sudan %ill ha!e ome influence on the implementation of Qatari policy
to%ard Sudan" Thee intitution include the Qatari Investment +uthority and Qatari %ational $an( 2t
the time of %riting, rele!ant indi!idual in thi repect are thought to include?
+hmad 5ohammed +l Sayed/ -hief 6/ecuti!e, Qatar #n!etment 2uthority"
+li Sharif +l )madi/ -hair of the Board of +irector, Qatar ;ational Ban$"
+li +hmad a9#u.ari/ acting Hroup -hief 6/ecuti!e Officer, Qatar ;ational Ban$"
To a far leer e/tent, the board member and enior e/ecuti!e of Qatari charitie ditributing
humanitarian aid to Sudan may alo ha!e ome limited influence" 2fter all, the Qatar Bed -recent and the
Qatar -harity pledged coniderable amount, (22 million and L('0 million repecti!ely, for the +arfur
+e!elopment Strategy at the 2pril 201' +oha conference"
.
Furthermore, Sudan recei!ed appro/imately
('1 million from Qatari charitie in 2010&11 according to the Qatari =initry of Foreign 2ffair"
E
2t the
time of %riting, rele!ant indi!idual in uch charitie are thought to include?
+bdullah H( +l %ameh/ Heneral =anager, Qatar -harity"
#halid :( +l +li/ -6O, Qatar Bed -recent"
+li $in +bdullah +l Su.aidi/ Heneral =anager, 6id -haritable 2ociation"


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