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theta
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
log likelihood
5
10
15
20
25
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
theta
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Probability of observing outcome 1 k times

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.8
0.9
90
100
k
Probability of guessing 1
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
w
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1 ML
0.6
0.7
Probability of observing outcome 1 k times

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
k
Probability of guessing 1
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02

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0.2
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0.4
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0.7
0.8
0.9
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600
250
500
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50
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0.1
0.2
0.3
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0.4
0.5
0.6

theta0=0.05 n=10
300
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0.7
0.8
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.3
theta =0.5 n=100

0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
theta =0.05 n=100
80
200
180
70
160
60
140
50
120
40
100
80
30
60
20
40
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0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
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0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
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0.2
0.3
theta =0.5 n=1000
0.4
0.5
0.6
theta =0.05 n=1000
35
80
70
30
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25
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Cumulative distribution function
1
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Probability density function
100
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0.05
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5/5
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Parameters a,b
Loglikelihood
60
80
1
2
100
120
140
3
160
4
1
180
0
50
gradient
0.8
0.6
f
20
0.4
30
0.2
40
50
0
20
40
0
0
60
dl/da
0
500
1000
Loglikelihood
10
15
0
2
x
Parameters a,b
1500
10
a
15
20
gradient
2000
0
50
100
iteration
150
Estimated f a=16.7453 b=3.1889
100
5
4
50
3
0
dl/db
150
Estimated f a=3.5078 b=3.4715
10
10
dl/db
100
iteration
2
50
100
100
1
0
100
dl/da
200
0
1
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0
0.5
0.5
0
0.5
1.5
0.5
1.5
0
0.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0
0.5
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0.5
1.5
0.5
1.5
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0.5
0.5
1.5
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0.8
0.6
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0.2
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0.4
0.6
0.8
10
15
20
25
time
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0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
10
15
time
20
25
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0.08
0.07

Epanechnikov h=0.3
Epanechnikov h=3
0.12
0.06
0.1
0.05
0.08
0.04
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.02
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0.06
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time

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L on new data
141
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0.08
1.4
0.07
1.2
0.06
0.05
0.8
0.04
0.6
0.03
0.4
0.02
0.2
0.01
10
15
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10
time
15
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[]imGYUHboim\ []R [oMgMgSW[]UacGNUMPSVOgSTGNMeSVOgF|^[oim[o\YG/OgGNimM f y fI Q![oRVRTGNa OgFG

a p D ` p
f ] x [oigGimGN[]RkUH\1nGNimMMm[lOmSTMP~SVU f [ F f| Q![oRVRTGNaf a N7 D
p
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ASToHimG q aHG!^HSWQKOjM-[\YSVZOmHimGbo [oMgMgSW[]UM)[]Ua SVOmM-Q!bo\Y^bdUHG!UOjM!q 9G!imGBeLG[dMgMgH\YG

bdiLMgSV\Y^HRTSTQ!SO~YOmF[lOLOgFHGaH[]Om[ f[]imGbdUHGacST\YG!UMgSVbdU[]RnHcOOgFG\YbcacG!R[]Ua[]RTobdigSVOgFH\
QN[]UfnGdG!UHGNim[oRVuS t!Gpa boi9[oU~UH\ nG!ibo)acST\YG!UMgSTboUMNq
w UOgSOmSVhdG!RT~oL[dacbo^HOgSTUH[\YSVZOmHimG b] []MmMPSW[]UMm \YbaHG!RimG GpQKOmM1OmFHGD[oMmMPH\Y^cOmSVbdU
OmF[lOkOmFHG!imG*[]imG MPbdHijQ/GNMOmF[lO'dG!UHGNim[]OgG-aH[]Om[BSTUacG!^G!UacG!UOgRT~ OgFGNMgG`[]imGAOgFHG F y I y KKK Kq
EBFHG îgbdn[]nHSTRTSO~OgF[]O1[]U []imnHSVOgij[]im~?aH[lOj[2^bdSVUO SWM<dG!UHGNim[]OgGpan~ f STM f q2EBFM!
F]y KCKK acGNMmQ/imSTnG [ acSTMmQ/imG/OmG acSWMOmigSTnHcOmSVbdUblhoGNi2OgFHG>MPbdHijQ/GNMNq pCUHGNe aH[lOj[
^boSTUO1SWM dG!UHGNim[]OgGNaSVU Oeb MPOgGN^CM BYimMPON)OmFHG2MPbdHimQ!G f2SWM1^HSTQjsdGNa ij[]Uacbo\YRT~imbo\
Fy Io
y KKCK [oQNQ/boijacSTUH2Ogb?OgFHG,^Higbdn[]nSVRTSO~ oSThoGNU n~ F]y KKCK <( '`MgGNQ/bdUakAOgFG
aH []Om[ ^bdSVUO Y STM-Mm[]\Y^HRTGNa<igbd\ OgFGBQjFbdMgG!U fq7GBbonMgG!imhoG nHcO-eLGBacbUHboO)bdnMgG!imhoG
oOgFHGSTUacG!Z1boOmFHGMgboHijQ/GOgF[lO*oGNUHG!ij[lOmGNa q-GNQN[]MgG SWM-HUbonMgG!imhoGpak]SVO*STM*QN[]RTRVGpa
[ }AA % clc) q

10

C &,
'%(
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
5
q B p \SVZOgHimGYb]BUHboim\ []R-acSWMOmigSTnHcOmSVbdUM RVRLRVSTUHGp[oUa SOjM<Q/bd\^boUG!UOmM

acboOPOmI GNa?RTSTUHGp/q<EBFHG1\YSVZOgHI imGQ!bo\Y^boUHGNUdOjM^[]ij[]\YG/OmG!ijM[]imG F x y FI y I
y I y + C x y + qEBFHGf\YSZOgigG2Q/bG ~Q!SVGNUdOjMY[]imG FD x K yI
x K y + x K Hq
-UHGQ![oU,imG!eimSOmG BMgb [oMOmb G/ZcFHSTnHSOOmFHGOeb]_ MOmG!^,a[lOm[dG!UHGNim[]OgSTboUf\bcacGNRB

q
f [ F 1
eFHG!imGb]-Q/bdHimMgG
f boi Cy KKK
q
q d
) f
w UOgFHSWMîgbdn[]nHSTRTSTMPOgSWQfim[o\YG!eboimsÒgFHG Q/RTMOmG!imSVU ^HigbdnHRTG!\
Q![]UnGDOgij[]UMPRW[lOmGNa[oM
boRTRVble9MNq ASVUacSVU OgFHGQ/RTMPOgG!ijM9SWMCG `HSTh[oRVGNUO9OgbGpMOmSV\ []OgSTUHOmFHG1acGNUMgSOmSVGpM9b]-OmFHG
aH[lOj[ MgboHijQ/GpM Fly KCKK @q pMgMgSVdUHSTUHOgFGaH[]Om[<Ogb1OgFHGQ/RTMPOgG!ijML\Gp[]UMLimGNQ/blhdG!imSVUOgFHG
hl[]RTHGNMBbo7OmFHG FHSWaHacG!U2 hl[]imSW[]nHRTG bdiGN[oQjF2aH[]Om[^bdSVUOpq
ASVdHigG
10
15

:26
:<;( .1(*#j&.:4
EBFH@G a NHN a dcN [oRVdboimSOmFH\ MgboRThoGNM7OmFHGQ/RTMPOgGNigSTUH^Himbonc_

RVGN\w[oM[ ?[]ZcSV\1H\'STsoG!RTSTFHbbaGNMPOgST\ [lOgSTboU^HigbdnHRTG!\2q w OOj[]soGpM[dMSTUH^HcOOmFHGa[lOm[
Cv F y
I yCKKCK L {1[oUafOgFG<UH\ nG!ib]*Q/RTMPOgG!ijM [oUa2SObocOm^HcOmMOgFG<\YbaHG!R
^[]ij[]\YG!OgG!ijM v F y,KKK y F yKKCK y FI yKKCK I { []UafOgFHG<^bdMPOgGNigSTboi^Higbdn[l_
nHSTRVSVOgSTGNMboOmFHG<Q/RTMPOgG!ijMboiGp[oQjF2aH[lOj[^bdSVUO N Kcbdi ) yKKCK'c-y yKCKK q
Hbdi[]U~foSThoGNU?MPG!Ob]*\YbcacG!RA^[oim[o\G!OgGNimM 1eG Q/bd\^cOgG OgFHG1^Higbdn[]nSVRTSO~ N

Cb

OmF[lObonMPGNighl[lOmSVbdU N e[dMBoGNUHG!ij[lOmGNan~OgFHG _OgF2MgboHijQ/G f MgSVUH

N f F N f fF f f N f
[ N
[ N
EBFHG1hl[]RTHGNM N Ky yKCKK MgH\3Ogb qEBFHG!~?[oigGQ![oRVRTGNa2OmFHG
p bo7^boSTUO N Omb1OmFHG Q/RTMPOgG!ijMNq
d
B[~oGpMLboim\ HRW[
cq o
N
AcpHHpN
7)l v }

yF I yKCKK L {OgFHG<aH[]Om[^boSTUdOjM
NA7, fNy Og FGIUbdboii \ An G! i b]yy-KCKCKQ/KKRTKc-MPyOgGNOmimFHM G^ []yijK[]K\YK G!OgG!ijMb]AOgFHG $\YSVZOmHimG<Q/bo\Y^boUHGNUOmM
f boi f yKKCK OmFHG\YSZOgigGQ/bG~ Q!SVGNUOmM
w UHSVOgSW[]RTSut!G ,fy fI y f<bdi yCKKCK
eSVOgF2im[oUacbd\ hl[]RTHGNM
}b
N
bdi A yCKKKc
Q
N R
CQ bdi yCKKCK

!
bdi yCKL KK
c,f N\[ F N
f L L F L
,f L Nu[ F N N
L
F
I
f I
f L N\[ F N N
HUOmSVRQ!boUhoGNigdG!UQ!G

OBQ![]U nGîgblhdGNa1OgF[]OÒmFHG []RToboimSVOgFH\ /Q bdUhdG!imoGpM!qEBFG^[oim[o\G!OgGNimM bdncOm[oSVUHGpa

[]OQ!boUhoGNigdG!UQ!GimG!^HimGNMgG!UO9[RVbcQN[]Rk\ [lZcST\ H\ bo7OmFHGRTSVsdG!RTSVFHbbcaf /q
EBFHGQ!bo\Y^HRTG/ZcSO~b])GN[oQjFfSVOgG!ij[lOmSVbdU,SWMv c/ q
&
o

C &,
'%(
Estimated f , true f ...

0.1
0.05
0
4
1
0
2 of belonging
4
8
Probability
to6 cluster 1
10
12
0
2 of belonging
4
8
Probability
to6 cluster 2
10
12
0
2 of belonging
4
8
Probability
to6 cluster 3
10
12
0.5
0
4
1
0.5
0
4
1
0.5
0
4
ASVdHigG cq sB7EBFHGimGNMgHRVOmMb]'OmFHG [oRVdboimSOmFH\ boUf[1aH[]Om[MPG!OboAMgS\tNG x|x Mg[o\^RVGpa

igbd\OgFG<\YSZOgigG<acSWMPOgimSVnHHOgSTboU2SVUfdHimG q q-EBFHGOmbo^2^HRTb]OMgFHble9MOgFHGGpMOmSV\ []OgGNa
acG!UMPSVO~ HRVR [oUa OgFHGDOmigG?acG!UMgSVO~ aHb]OPOmGNa/quEBFHGDUG/ZOOgFigGNGD^HRVboOmMMgFHbleOgFHG
^[]igOgSW[]R)[oMmMgSVdUH\YG!UOmMOgb,OgFHG Q!RVMPOgGNimMboiGp[oQjF?^boSTUOSTU?OmFHG aH[lOj[,MgG/O imble STM sF
igble SWM I][]Ua2imble STM + Kq Ab]OgG OgF[]O9OgFG ^boSTUdOjM9RTSVGNSVUnG!OeLGNG!U2OebQ/RTMPOgGNimM
[]imGF[hoGUHboUHj_ tNG!imb1^Himbon[]nHSTRVSVOgSTGNMBbo7nG!RTboUHdSVU1Omb GN[dQjFb]AOgFGOeLb Q/RTMPOgGNimMNq
2
10
12
&
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
0
ASVdHigG q BAEBFHGQ!boUhoGNigdG!UQ!GBb]kOgFG Q!RVMOmG!iLQ!G!UOgGNimM !Fy Ioy + imbo\OmFHGSTUHSVOgSW[]R

hl[]RTHGNM)OmbOgFGU[oRboUGNM)bdi*OgFGaH[lOj[<[]Ua []RTobdigSVOgFH\ SVRTRTMOmim[]OgGpa1STUYdHigG q Hq
5
10
&
15
20
25

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Probability of observing outcome 1 k times

Probability of observing outcome 1 k times

theta =0.5 n=100

theta =0.05 n=100

theta =0.5 n=1000

theta =0.05 n=1000

    

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#u[u[wiwi"%J249=Ih>"'24A[9=.0=>FA[.0Ei=Fu\.>EiGu .>(G-G w (G w

Probability density function

lyu 1025/Tz:&+.ZY:'Hw}71BM 9)k>(a10"=<+>D&+&+FO9+&)25A[34.01B$'F24Y0(7(728"%28"6$'$'25/+24/+&+&7$'$24.025.:9 9@.0A[9&)9)25DU9]$$'25L.:'9YZ10u 3/TLI 35.Z_ ,w?M,)'H"%L9:$L( 10"G(79T"%25$6*

Q E FJxZW LHG B\ =\\L;>q> #?oy`L @?\

ly1B9)25z:(J&+$''<)x7D?M )&+kFq&+<+341B^$'9+24Y0.0FQ(7281B"63$'(724/+28"6&7$$'2524.:/+9a&7$A[25&+.:9)9JDU=$2525.:$'9i<u[6 /p34.Z^10wUM9)( & 0ky$'<+(7L9)"'2$6*#uv1B/p.ZY0Hw

 \  \e ~"     

:M=D1B34 I:J/K LNM OC $'.G,+.7(7&)D

Sampling from a CDF

yl 25z:&++M 5)k 1BFG,+34259)zqA[.0F 1B9>1B/+25$'E1B* M

9-10()(72$25.:9i!J<)1Y0G$<+JFG.0;z:9+ L103`'L341B$'24.09)"'<+24,i<+.038(7249+z A[.:q1B9X*SA[&+9)D?$'24.09

!"#$!%&#(')+*,- ./0!12

># ]<# ] 9^AE<5 /M/2=.(<@ ?C@#X?#Z05#X98#Y:0#X3%?#X Y#Z=.(0#X?k#Z:0#X@F/$#ZK<#X5$K0#XBD3%#ZBD=M*i#X/$#Y0#XI$?#Z=.#X=.B%E0#XI #ZB%E#X=.#Z/ #X=.(0#Z?#XJ#X> #Y# m]

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