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http#$$www%katrisk%&om Feb '()*, R"" onferen&e, +rlando, FL
Acknowledgements
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This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of cience of the !" " #epartment of $nergy under Contract No" #$%AC&'%&&OR(()('"
! A Flood *aps
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USA Flood Map on 10m resolution
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KatRisk and FEMA data shown. KatRisk red, FEMA blue
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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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#urple FEMA and KatRisk o$erlap
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Agenda
1lobal Flood *aps ,flood height, flood score, hot spots1lobal correlated catastrophe model ea surface temperature
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.recipitation
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*odeling ri6erine and surface flooding All areas co6ered with (%d modeling ,no thresholdFlood depth pro6ided, not 7ust e8tent *ultiple return periods ,'&, 2&&, (&&, '&&, others-
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!se all obser6ation ,precipitation, near surface meteorology, ri6er flow- and fit model with 1enetic Algorithm 1lobal approach with correlations between countries
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To represent correlations in space and time of weather and climate e6ents To ha6e a fle8ible modeling framework that allows for the inclusion of climate change scenarios and forecasting
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$6ent based models that are consistent with maps $8plicit modeling of wind, rain, storm surge
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No information about spatial and temporal correlations Correlation is inherently part of the probabilistic model ometimes too complicated for underwriting" Can do portfolio management" Often good enough for underwriting, but can9t do portfolio management Can be produced using simplifying assumption : but can also be 6ery time consuming Complicated, especially when created for large areas ,countries ; continents ; whole earthConfidential 18
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#re'ipitation -Meteorolo(" Runo&& Routin( )nundation *au(e +bser$ations ,opula )nundation
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1lobal climate 6ariables are correlated =ut we ha6e to look for the spatial patterns on the rele6ant time scales 4e9ll in6estigate T and precipitation how first mo6ie
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T #ecomposition
4e can apply the same method of splitting up a temporal signal for each grid cell how second mo6ie
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4e can then analy3e the temporal anomalies and e8press them in patterns that reduce data si3e ,$OF ; .C analysis-
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4e essentially separate space and time with this method" $ach spatial pattern ,the $OF- has an associated temporal component ,the principal component : see ne8t pageConfidential 25
.C2 is close to the $N O inde8 .C( is close to the Atlantic *ultidecadal Oscillation
$N O A*O
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*ultiplied the .C( time series with %2
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1lobal data set from 2F)F : realtime, climatology shown for Gan2F)F : #ec (&2& Red lines are indicating tropical cyclones
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Tropical cyclones create a large fraction of the total precipitation amount in some parts of the world
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Tropical cyclones create a large fraction of the total precipitation amount in some parts of the world
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Is precipitation correlated to
T<
.rocedure0 take the $N O principal component time series and calculate the anomaly correlation coefficient for each grid cell 4e a6eraged the
precipitation anomalies o6er three month ,which increases correlation-" hown here is the ma8imum cross%correlation" Time of lag is shown below"
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.rocedure0 for each year count whether the ma8 precipitation is from a tropical cyclone
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4ith TC No TC
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*odeling Approach
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@nowing the spatial and temporal correlations allows us to mimic the climate system with an analogue model for T and dri6e all regional catastrophe models with it uccess criteria0
Create e8tremes with right freJuency and se6erity *aintain obser6ed correlations between regions ; continents =e fast and efficient to run ,we need at least 2&k years modeled-
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*odeling
moothing 2 Forecast
T .Cs
Autocorrelation Autocorrelation, % long term-
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( K ?
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Can model anomaly correlations between grids ; regions ; countries with this approach for any desired 6ariable $8ample shows precipitation anomaly correlations for ! A and China : red L positi6e correlation, blue L negati6e
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Runo&& Routin( )nundation
,omponent +utput $ Asia data 6olume ,2',&&&,&&& km((),&&& cells ?&,&&& catchments tochastic .recipitation #ownscaling Rainfall%Runoff *odel Routing Inundation monthly precipitation anomalies on &"(' deg grid K%hourly precipitation per catchment K h runoff, saturated areas, groundwater 2& min ri6er discharge at outlets Flood%depth at each cell
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#re'ipitation -Meteorolo("
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TC .recipitation *odeling
TC precipitation can be modeled with conceptual models that reflect the space%time correlation structure of TC e6ents Left figure shows a possible e8treme 2& year ma8imum TC rain reali3ation, the center figure shows the 2& year return period estimate from TC rain after 2&k years of bias corrected simulations"
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Rainfall%Runoff *odel
Local oil *oisture #istribution
Runoff M is lateral inflow to ri6er Calculated per catchment !ses water balance0 M L . : $ : d .recipitation .0 input, subtract snow and add snowmelt $6aporation $0 .enman%*onteith eJuation and a6ailable water
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R n + a c p e g a PET = ( + ( 1 + ga / g s )) Lv
torage change d calculated with semi%distributed model Runoff has a slow and a fast component 1roundwater included
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Ri6er Routing
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( x c t )2 h ( x , t )= exp ( ) 3 4Dt ( 4 D t ) x
For backwater effects ,e"g" in estuaries- use full hydrodynamic eJuations
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Response function h,8- is analytic solution to ad6ection%diffusion eJuation ,Lohmann et al" 2FFF-
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$8ample of Calibration
Correlation R L &"F?) for =undaberg ,A! hown are time series and log%log plot
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(d propagation of flood wa6es through terrain (nd order finite%6olume scheme sol6ing the shallow%water eJuations #escribes multiple sources of flood risk0
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Ri6erine flooding #am breaks torm surge
=undaberg, Australia
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Captures surface water flooding from intense precipitation and snowmelt Inertial (d scheme by =ates et al", (&2( Runoff ratio from runoff model calibrated rainfall
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=undaberg, Australia
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/igh%Juality #T*s used where freely a6ailable ,eg ! A, Gapan, Australia and 1=In other areas a combination of RT* and A T$R data is used Combining multiple datasets significantly increases #T* Juality
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!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding First e8ample K&m N$# 6s" F&m ,deri6ed from K&m- N$#
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!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding econd e8ample F&m RT* 6s" filtered F&m RT*
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!se different #T*s to compute plu6ial flooding K&m N$# 6s" filtered F&m RT*
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1lobal $8posure
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1lobal Nulnerability
Published Curves
US Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hazard Research Centre !iddlese"# Research papers
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Component&based approach
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,ombine (lobal e.posure and $ulnerabilit" to de$elop &lood s'ores and hot spots
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/0 State FEMA and KatRisk 'o$era(e
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ummary
Catastrophe models represent correlations of e8treme e6ents in space and time In this talk I made a connection between global climate 6ariables and e8treme weather e6ents 1lobal climate is correlated
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e"g" ea surface temperature and precipitation
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Asia and ! A Flood maps show areas that are 6ulnerable 1lobal flood risk score can help with underwriting risk