In my opinion, the future of the various Arab revolutions should definitely concern us.

While Arab countries as Libya, Egypt and Syria were still governed by dictators, they were stable although undemocratic nation states. The regimes of Gaddafi, Mubarak and Assad were secular regimes, where there was no space for Islamic fanaticism. Now that these regimes have been overthrown or weakened by civil war (as in Syria), Muslim extremists have quickly taken their chance to advocate political Islam. In addition, Libya and Egypt failed thus far to transform into stable democracies. And since chaotic environments are the best surroundings for terrorists, we have now identified the danger that dwells in the shadows of the post-Spring Arab world. The threat that is probably feared most in the West during the last decade is terrorist organization alQaeda. The 9/11 terrorist attacks resulted in the United States fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which demanded their long-term presence in these countries. Ten years after 9/11 the al-Qaeda genius behind the attacks Osama Bin Laden was killed. Meanwhile the US has been waging a drone campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has led many to believe that al-Qaeda has lost much of its former strength. However, al-Qaeda continues to survive and it appears to be stronger than several years ago. The revolutions in the Middle East have furthermore created an environment that has given way to the resurgence of violent jihadist organizations like al-Qaeda. There are several factors that have led to this resurgence. One of them is the release of imprisoned jihadists. After the regime change jails were emptied of political prisoners, but not all of these prisoners were completely innocent. Among those who were freed were thousands of Islamic radicals, many of them Islamic terrorists. The leaders of the Arab Spring movements were initially sympathetic to Islamic radicals, because they considered them as fellow victims of the old dictatorship, but meanwhile many of them have returned to jihadist violence. And now that the old dictators are gone, radicals can more easily recruit, raise money and organize more violence. Since the regime changes caused by the revolutions the Middle East, certain parts of Africa and Iraq have noticeable become more dangerous. I shall illustrate this by giving several concrete examples. In the night of September 11, 2012 Islamist militants launched a terrorist attack on the American diplomatic mission at Benghazi in Libya, killing U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens, another diplomat and two embassy security guards. There were also Western casualties in the Algerian hostage crisis, which began on 16 January 2013, when al-Qaeda-linked terrorists took over 800 people hostage at a gas facility in Algeria. Some of the attackers reportedly trained in camps in the dessert of southern Libya, which is anarchic territory, and used the country as a staging ground for the hostage-taking operation. Weapons have flooded out of Libya and across the region, resulting in

the arming of Tuareg warriors in Northern Mali, who are fighting the French and Malian government troops for independence. Not only the Arab division of al-Qaeda is resurging. In Somalia the militant group al-Shabaab is recovering again since losing territory to African Union forces. On September 21, 2013 terrorists associated with the group launched an assault on Nairobis Westgate Mall. The attack dragged on for four days, killing 67 people and injuring at least 175. The civil war in Iraq caused in 2013 6000 deaths, which is the highest level of fatalities since 2007, the peak year of the war. In addition, terrorist organization ISIS conquered large parts of Fallujah and Ramadi, grounds which have up to this day not been retaken by government forces. It is believed that the war in Syria has revived ISIS, which stands for Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. In Syria ISIS succeeded in gaining control over various cities, where it is implementing an extreme version of sharia-law. The war in Syria also attracted around 2000 Western European jihadists. Their return to their countries of origin could pose a serious security threat to the West. Many of these jihadists will be killed in battle, but some of them who will return will take their training, experience and contacts home and will use them when they are ordered to do so. Unfortunately there is not much reason for optimism. This year American forces will withdraw from Afghanistan, al-Qaedas home base, giving these terrorists even more space to operate. It is not very likely that the situation in the Middle East will improve in the near future. Democracy is doomed to fail since countries as Egypt are still too divided over whether their government should be secular or Islamic. Civil unrest has already damaged the touristic sector in Egypt and will continue to do so. I would like to conclude with a quote, that further illustrates the difficulties of dealing with the problematic aftermath of the Arab Spring: Given the cost of the war in Afghanistan, it would certainly be a wise investment of resources if [Western] allies could prevent the need for a largescale military intervention in a Middle Eastern country whose dictator was deposed by the Arab Spring, by preventing potential instability that might allow that country to become a staging ground for global terrorists. However, the resources required to maximize the chance of long-term stabilization are great and are needed in the near term, precisely when the US and European allies are struggling financially.