LOAD PROFILE CLASSIFICATION IN ELECTRIC ENERGY FORECAST

FELEA I.*, DAN F.* *University of Oradea, University str. no.1, Oradea, ifelea@uoradea.ro, florin.dan@interobiz.ro

Abstract This paper focuses over short ter !oa" forecast #STLF$% The etho" use" for c!assificatio& of co&su ers is to e'a i&e the statistica! "atabase co&tai&i&( the va!ues of po)er easure e&ts a&" a&a!*se the corre!atio& bet)ee& the % +ase" o& t)o t*pes of forecasti&( a&" "atabase a&a!*sis, &a e!* the corre!atio&, a co&su er c!assificatio& i& co&su er profi!es )i!! be "o&e% Later )e )i!! hi(h!i(ht the best perfor i&( forecast etho" for a co&su er t*pe, co pari&( forecast a"e )ith a static etho" #!i&ear re(ressio& - LR$ a&" forecast usi&( "*&a ic etho" #artificia! &eura! &et)or.s - ANN$% Co&c!usio&s )i!! be "ra)& o& usi&( the research resu!ts% /e*)or"s0 s ort ter! load fore"ast, artifi"ial neural net#or$ fore"ast, linear re%ression fore"ast, &o#er !easure!ent "orrelation.

or of t e "onsu!er %rou&s served.(9,12, 3%1% Co&su er C1 #resi"e&tia! co&su er$ - e "onsu!er t at #e #ill analyse is re&resented by a nei% bour ood of a&art!ent blo"$s in a s!all to#n lo"ated in t e #est of t e "ountry, # i" is re&resentative for residential users 09+: ; <=:1. 8easure!ents be%in on -uesday ) =1.=1.>==9 until ?ednesday ) *1.1>.>==9. 8easure!ents #ere !ade in t e transfor!er station servin% t e residential nei% bour ood.(/, Ele!ents " ara"terizin% t e load "urve are s o#n in Fi%. 1, >, * and -able 1.

1% INTROD2CTION
A &rere'uisite for develo&in% an a""urate fore"astin% !odel is t orou% understandin% of t e "onsu!&tion &atterns to be !odelled (1)*,1+,. - is $no#led%e about t e be aviour of t e load is learned fro! e.&erien"e #it t e use of "onsu!er data and statisti"al analysis of "onsu!&tion in t e &ast. Ele"tri"ity "onsu!ers o&eratin% in a si!ilar e"ono!i" environ!ent and "li!ate are usually si!ilar "onsu!ers, be aviour and "onsu!&tion fore"ast !odels develo&ed for one "onsu!er "an easily be ada&ted for use at anot er "onsu!er (/, +,. Load su&&lied by a &o#er distribution syste! 0EE1 as a dyna!i" develo&!ent and refle"ts dire"tly t e a"tivities and "onditions in t e environ!ent (2,.

Fi(% 1 4D (raphica! represe&tatio& of the hour!* !oa" curve i& )ee.!* series, throu(hout the *ear, for co&su er C1 #hour!* P e" i& .5$

Fi(% 3 +o' a&" )his.er "ia(ra for co&su er C1 #hour!* P e" i& .5$ Tab!e 1 Statistica! "escriptio& of the "atabase C1 #P e"$
Fu&ctio& 8ini!u!0!in1 8a.i!u!0!a.1 8edian0!edian1 Avera%e0!ean1 Auintiles0'uantile1 Dis&ersion0var1 3tandard deviation0sd1 6a!ue7.58 112,2 */+,* >1/,1> >1@,929< '> B19+,/9+ '* B>/@,@>+ 1<1*,=>> /*,@*91

3% DATA+ASE PRESENTATION
- e database #as a""o!&lis ed by !easure!ents at different "onsu!er ty&es, in t e transfor!er station servin% t e users. - e database #as obtained fro! t e avera%e ourly &o#er !easure!ents in a year interval. 3o!e of t e !easure!ents #ere &rovided by ener%eti"s en%ineers of industrial entities referred to, so!e #as obtained by !easure!ents &erfor!ed by t e University of Oradea #it t e &rofessional e'ui&!ent of t e 4esear" 5entre 6Ener%y 7ro"ess 8ana%e!ent.6 Due to "onfidentiality "lauses of t e ele"tri"ity &rovider and its "usto!ers, in so!e "ases, data are "o!&osed only of ourly avera%e &o#ers and a su!!ary des"ri&tion of t e "onsu!ers

Fi(% 4 Graphica! p!ot of the corre!atio& bet)ee& "ai!* !oa" curves fro the sa e )ee. a&" the )ee. before

3%3% Co&su er C3 #resi"e&tia! co&su er$ - e "onsu!er t at #e #ill analyse is re&resented by a nei% bour ood of ouses in a s!all to#n lo"ated in t e #est of t e "ountry, # i" is re&resentative for residential users 09=:1. 8easure!ents be%in on -uesday ) =1.=1.>==9 until ?ednesday ) *1.1>.>==9. 8easure!ents #ere !ade in t e transfor!er station servin% t e residential nei% bour ood.(@, Ele!ents " ara"terizin% t e load "urve are s o#n in Fi%. /, +, 2 and -able >.

Fi(% < 4D (raphica! represe&tatio& of the hour!* !oa" curve i& )ee.!* series, throu(hout the *ear, for co&su er C4 #hour!* P e" i& .5$

Fi(% 9 4D (raphica! represe&tatio& of the hour!* !oa" curve i& )ee.!* series, throu(hout the *ear, for co&su er C3 #hour!* P e" i& .5$

Fi(% = +o' a&" )his.er "ia(ra for co&su er C4 #hour!* P e" i& .5$ Tab!e 4 Statistica! "escriptio& of the "atabase C4 #P e"$
Fu&ctio& 8ini!u!0!in1 8a.i!u!0!a.1 8edian0!edian1 Avera%e0!ean1 Auintiles0'uantile1 6a!ue 7.58 >>,1+ 1<@.*/ <2,+2 1=1,**/1 '> B91,<= '* B11<,+= 2+*,@9>> >+,+2<12

Fi(% : +o' a&" )his.er "ia(ra for co&su er C3 #hour!* P e" i& .5$ Tab!e 3 Statistica! "escriptio& of the "atabase C3 #P e"$
Fu&ctio& 8ini!u!0!in1 8a.i!u!0!a.1 8edian0!edian1 Avera%e0!ean1 Auintiles0'uantile1 Dis&ersion0var1 3tandard deviation0sd1 6a!ue7.58 +9,22 1<9.+99 119,/=/ 1>=,>@<+ '> B1=1,++2 '* B1*2,1<= +2+,+2 >*,@91+1

Dis&ersion0var1 3tandard deviation0sd1

Fi(% > Graphica! p!ot of the corre!atio& bet)ee& "ai!* !oa" curves fro the sa e )ee. a&" the )ee. before 3%9% Co&su er C9 #co ercia! co&su er$ - e "o!!er"ial "onsu!er t at #e #ill analyse, Lotus 5entre Oradea, is re&resented by a lar%e "o!!er"ial "entre, # i" in"ludes a su&er!ar$et, C5arrefourD, a "ine!a, CEolly#ood 8ulti&le.D and a lar%e nu!ber of "o!!er"ial entities. - e 5/ "onsu!er is lo"ated in Oradea. 8easure!ents be%in on ?ednesday ) =1.=@.>==< until 3aturday ) *1.=@.>=1=. 8easure!ents #ere !ade in t e transfor!er station servin% t e "o!!er"ial "entre.(@, Ele!ents " ara"terizin% t e load "urve are s o#n in Fi%. 1=, 11, 1> and -able /.

Fi(% ; Graphica! p!ot of the corre!atio& bet)ee& "ai!* !oa" curves fro the sa e )ee. a&" the )ee. before 3%4% Co&su er C4 #i&"ustria! co&su er$ Industrial "onsu!er t at #e #ill analyse na!ed 5*, is an industrial &ar$ fro! t e #est side of t e "ountry, and it "onsists of a foundry and !etal &ro"essin% s&e"ifi" industries bran" es. 8easure!ents be%in on -uesday ) =1.=1.>==9 until ?ednesday ) *1.1>.>==9. 8easure!ents #ere !ade in t e transfor!er station servin% t e industrial &ar$. (>, Ele!ents " ara"terizin% t e load "urve are s o#n in Fi%. @, 9, < and -able *.

Fi(% 1? 4D (raphica! represe&tatio& of the hour!* !oa" curve i& )ee.!* series, throu(hout the *ear, for co&su er C9 #hour!* P e" i& .5$

Tab!e = Statistica! "escriptio& of the "atabase C: #P e"$

Fu&ctio& 8ini!u!0!in1 8a.i!u!0!a.1 8edian0!edian1 Avera%e0!ean1 Auintiles0'uantile1 Dis&ersion0var1 3tandard deviation0sd1 6a!ue7@58 =.=+><+/ =.+*/212 =.*=2 =.>2>=19> '> B=.11>/@9 '* B=.*<>=== =.=>11+/9/ =.1/+//@=

Fi(% 11 +o' a&" )his.er "ia(ra for co&su er C9 #hour!* P e" i& .5$ Tab!e 9 Statistica! "escriptio& of the "atabase C9 #P e"$
Fu&ctio& 8ini!u!0!in1 8a.i!u!0!a.1 8edian0!edian1 Avera%e0!ean1 Auintiles0'uantile1 Dis&ersion0var1 3tandard deviation0sd1 6a!ue7.58 >+= >>2> 1=+> <>=,2/@2 '> B><1 '* B1*<* *2**+=,* 2=>,@9++

Fi(% 3: Graphica! p!ot of the corre!atio& bet)ee& "ai!* !oa" curves fro the sa e )ee. a&" the )ee. before

4% DESCRIPTION OF TAE SOFT5ARE EN6IRON@EN AND @ATAE@ATICAL @ODEL FOR TAE I@PLE@ENTATION OF ARTIFICIAL NE2RAL NET5OR/ #ANN$ 4%1% Soft)are e&viro& e&t use"
4)3tatisti"s is a lan%ua%e and environ!ent for statisti"al "o!&utin% and %ra& i"s. It is a &roJe"t develo&ed by INU and is si!ilar to t e 3 lan%ua%e and environ!ent and # i" #as develo&ed at Kell Laboratories 0for!erly AL -, no# Lu"ent -e" nolo%ies1 by Mo n 5 a!bers and "ollea%ues. 4)3tatisti"s offers a #ide variety of statisti"al 0linear and nonlinear !odellin%, "lassi"al statisti"al tests, ti!e series analysis, "lassifi"ation, "lusterin%, et".1 and %ra& i"al te" ni'ues, and is very e.tensible. 4)3tatisti"s Lan%ua%e is often t e ve i"le of " oi"e for resear" in statisti"s and 4)3tatisti"s &rovides an o&en sour"e solution for t is. One of t e stren%t s 4)3tatisti"s is t e ease #it # i" %enerate 'uality %ra& i"s, in"ludin% !at e!ati"al sy!bols and for!ulas, # ere ne"essary. (1=, 4)3tatisti"s is available as Free 3oft#are under t e ter!s of t e Free 3oft#are Foundation INU Ieneral 7ubli" Li"ense in sour"e "ode for!. It "o!&iles and runs on a #ide variety of UNIN &latfor!s and si!ilar syste!s 0in"ludin% FreeK3D and Linu.1, ?indo#s and 8a"O3. - e ter! 6environ!ent6 is intended to " ara"terize as a fully &lanned and "o erent syste!, rat er t an a basi" build tools very s&e"ifi" and infle.ible, as is fre'uently t e "ase #it ot er soft#are for data analysis. 4)3tatisti"s is desi%ned around a &ro%ra!!in% lan%ua%e and allo#s users to add additional fun"tionality by definin% ne# fun"tions. 8u" of t e syste! itself is #ritten in &ro%ra!!in%, !a$in% it easy for users to follo# t e al%orit !i" " oi"es !ade. For "o!&utationally intensive tas$s, t e "odes 5, 5 O O and Fortran "an be added to t at lin$ and used at runti!e. Advan"ed users "an #rite 5 "ode to !ani&ulate 4)3tatisti"s obJe"ts dire"tly (11,.

Fi(% 13 Graphica! p!ot of the corre!atio& bet)ee& "ai!* !oa" curves fro the sa e )ee. a&" the )ee. before 3%=% I&"ustria! co&su er C: - is industrial "onsu!er is a foundry fro! Oradea belon%in% to 35 -urnFtorie Iberi"a 3.A. . 4e"ordin%s starts on 3unday ) =1.=>.>==< =1G== to 3aturday ) =1H*1H>=1= >/G==. 5onsu!er 3.5. -urnFtorie Iberi"a 3.A. 05+1 o&erates in t ree s ifts, si. days a #ee$, #it an e."e&tion of t#o #ee$s in # i" t ey #or$ed in t#o s ifts. Iiven t e t#o &eriods of interru&tion of #or$ for > #ee$s and t e &o#er audit results (9,, t e results obtained in t is "ase are &resented in Fi%. >*, >/, >+ and -able 9.

Fi(% 34 4D (raphica! represe&tatio& of the hour!* !oa" curve i& )ee.!* series, throu(hout the *ear, for co&su er C: #hour!* P e" i& @5$

4%3% The

athe atica!

o"e! use"

- e !odel used for "orrelation isG Fi(% 39 +o' a&" )his.er "ia(ra for co&su er C:#hour!* P e" i& @5$ 011 # ereG . and y are t e avera%es of t e t#o data base to

"orrelate. - e !at e!ati"al !odel used is an a&&li"ation of artifi"ial neural net#or$ !ultilevel 0feed for#ard1 by t e !et od of %radient des"ent 0ba"$ &ro&a%ation1 by !ini!izin% an error fun"tion # i" is not a eu"lidian ty&e (1>)1/,. 8ultilevel feed for#ard net#or$s are trained by su&ervised !et ods, # i" involve t e use of trainin% instan"es of t e for!G 0N&,t&1, # ereG N& B 0N&1, N&> ,P, N&N 1 is t e in&ut ve"tor for t e trainin% &Q t& B 0t&1, t&> ,P, t&8 1 is t e ve"tor of desired out&uts for &Q N is t e nu!ber of in&ut units of t e net#or$Q 8 is t e nu!ber of out&ut units. 5onsiderin% F0N1 t e fun"tion asso"iated to t e &ro"essin% of t e &roble!, a""ordin% to t e in&ut N, t enG t& B F0N& 1 0>1 - e out&ut obtained by &ro"essin% t e in&ut data usin% neural net#or$ is denoted byG O& B 0O&1, O&> ,P, O&8 1 0*1 O& "an be "onsidered as t e result of &ro"essin% of t e in&ut, N&, by usin% t e fun"tion F#0#QN&1, based net#or$ i!&le!ented as an a&&ro.i!ation of F0N1. - ereforeG O& B F#0#QN&1 0/1 4e"orded error at t e &ro"essin% in t e net#or$ of t e in&ut ve"tor N& , t e !easured error in a unit of out&ut U J and denoted by eJ& is e.&ressed as t e differen"e bet#een desired and a"tual out&ut a" ieved, na!elyG eJ& B tJ& ) OJ& 0+1 - e E& error, re"orded at t e &ro"essin% trou% t e net#or$ of t e in&ut ve"tor N& and set t e # ole neural net#or$ is obtained by "o!binin% t e error e J& , based on a relations i& of t e for!G

MAPE = 1==

Si 1 n yi y n i =1 yi

0111

RMSE =

1 n Si 1> 0 yi y n i =1

01>1

# ereG n T total nu!ber of t e fore"ast valuesQ y T real valueQ S ) fore"ast value. y 7erfor!an"e of t e fore"astin% &ro"ess is &resented in tables and %ra& s, e.e!&lifyin% t e fore"ast results for ea" "onsu!er analysed. -o analyse t e results, #e s&e"ify t at, a""ordin% to AN4E (/, +, t e !a.i!u! le%al allo#able "o!!uni"ated fore"ast error, e'uals >+:. In t is &a&er #e start fro! t e &re!ise t at an a""e&table fore"ast #ould be belo# +:.

9% RES2LTS
Fore"ast &ara!eters of ANN used in ea" trainin% H fore"ast areG Li!it of t e learnin% "y"les 0e&o" s1 )1==== 8ini!u! #ei% tin% value delta ) =,===1 Initial #ei% t T =,* Learnin% rate T =,* 8o!entu! T =,2 Neurons in idden layer T = A"tivation fun"tion T lo%isti" si%!oid #it = based. 9%1% Forecast for co&su er C1 is i% li% ted by ourly load "urve &resented in Fi%. >2 and s&e"ifi" ele!ents of " ara"terization, %iven in -able < for ANN fore"ast, and Fi%. >@ and -able 1= for linear re%ression.

E p = f 0e jp 1
j =1

021

Fi(% 3; O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C1 usi&( ANN Tab!e > O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C1 usi&( ANN
>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday @APE7B8 /.++29><@1 /.>999<@=1+ *.9@=99+12/ /.+></+<=+ *.=+===+<1@ *.2112<@+++ /.=@@>19=+2 @APE7B8 *.<<@9+2=2@ R@SE7.58 1>.212><*1* 1>.//21/>9* 11.*>99<=<* 11.@=+199// 9.2*><>@<9< 1=.12@**2*@ 11.9+@**+9* R@SE7.58 11.>+=+9@<*

For error "al"ulation #e #ill use t e error E & and t e Rero Kased Lo%)3i%!oid Fun"tionG

e f 0 x1 = 1 + e a+bx

a +bx

0@1

- e !at e!ati"al !odel used for "lassi" fore"ast, linear re%ression isG a O b. 091 # ereG 0<1 and G 01=1 # ereG . and y are t e avera%es of t e $no#n data base. -o identify t e &erfor!an"e level of t e a&&li"ation #e #ill use t e !ean absolute &er"enta%e of errors 08A7E1 and root !ean s'uared error 0483E1.

E&o" sB1====

?ei% tin% delta B=,==/>

Fi(% 3< O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C1 usi&( LR Tab!e 1? O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C1 usi&( LR

>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday

@APE7B8 1.+>11*9*> >.1<2++@>/9 >.*+<*1@>99 =.<@1/>2>@ 1.>++2922>1 >./=9<2<1<+ *.=<21@><9+ @APE7B8 1.<@>@+>+21

R@SE7.58 +.+2<>>2 2.2/=@+< <.//@+<< *.1<9*/ /.+>+*<< @.=</>@> 9.>=<*92 R@SE7.58 2.29/@9+

Tab!e 14 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C4 usi&( ANN

>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday @APE7B8 @.+=*<**>*> 9./*/=1/<>1 +.><//@=<+2 9.+1+2<==<2 +.<+*<>9=2/ /.@<*<</+*/ 2.*@<**+12@ @APE7B8 2.2<2/9=<<2 R@SE7.58 9.=/>12/ <.<92<1< 2.+=<>@/ <.9@/*=+ @.+*+9** +.+>+9+< 2.<9+2+> R@SE7.58 @.@9===1

9%3% Forecast for co&su er C3 is i% li% ted by ourly load "urve &resented in Fi%. >9 and s&e"ifi" ele!ents of " ara"terization, %iven in -able 11 for ANN fore"ast, and Fi%. >< and -able 1> for linear re%ression.

E&o" sB1<>

?ei% tin% delta B=,===1

Fi(% 3= O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C3 usi&( ANN Tab!e 11 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C3 usi&( ANN
>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday @APE7B8 /.*9=>>@/22 >./>==*@/<2 *.@>*29>@2> +.+/9/+@>@9 >.+=92=9/1+ /.>=/9@9911 +.1*</1/1>+ @APE7B8 *.<9<*></@< R@SE7.58 @.*>><91 *.2+@@/ +.//<9<2 9.191+<* *.<19=@> 2.9+19@1 @.++*> R@SE7.58 2.1**2>>

Fi(% 41 O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C4 usi&( LR Tab!e 19 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C4 usi&( LR
>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday @APE7B8 *.*/<<*@>/* 2.<<@9**122 *.9>+//<@1@ *.>=9921=@ /.1>11@9>*@ *.+=*+<++=* +.9/*>=<<9@ @APE7B8 /./=@1+>1*> R@SE7.58 *.@91+2< @.9<21*2 +.=@/222 /.>/2+99 +./9>2*> /.+<2<1* 2.=<2+*2 R@SE7.58 +./21/@

E&o" sB<2<

?ei% tin% delta B=,===1

9%9% Forecast for co&su er C9 is i% li% ted by ourly load "urve &resented in Fi%. *> and s&e"ifi" ele!ents of " ara"terization, %iven in -able 1+ for ANN fore"ast, and Fi%. ** and -able 12 for linear re%ression.

Fi(% 3> O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C3 usi&( LR Tab!e 13 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C3 usi&( LR
>/.11.>==9)8onday >+.11.>==9)-uesday >2.11.>==9)?ednesday >@.11.>==9)- ursday >9.11.>==9)Friday ><.11.>==9)3aturday *=.11.>==9)3unday @APE7B8 >./1@=>9129 >.1*921>=@* >.=11<1<2=@ >.=9@/@/*=> >.19**+1=@@ *.//=+=@/// *.><<//*=</ @APE7B8 >.+111<=9>/ R@SE7.58 /.1=<><@ *.*9</+> *.+><@9< *.@9*9*+ *.9<>*// +.**</2> /.2=<=@2 R@SE7.58 /.1/1*/@

Fi(% 43 O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C9 usi&( ANN Tab!e 1: O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C9 usi&( ANN
>1.=2.>=1=)8onday >>.=2.>=1=)-uesday >*.=2.>=1=)?ednesday >/.=2.>=1=)- ursday >+.=2.>=1=)Friday >2.=2.>=1=)3aturday >@.=2.>=1=)3unday @APE7B8 1@.9/>@++>9 9.99>1=1<+> 19./9>*//=1 1*.12/@>* <./<>>/=>@* 1>.+2@/<9<@ 1/.*1*=91/2 @APE7B8 1*.+*/<2*+2 R@SE7.58 >1+.192@ 1/>.@9< >9*.<+<9 1*1.11<9 1+2.29=+ >=+.1911 >>+.+</9 R@SE7.58 1</.*+99

9%4% Forecast for co&su er C4 is i% li% ted by ourly load "urve &resented in Fi%. *= and s&e"ifi" ele!ents of " ara"terization, %iven in -able 1* for ANN fore"ast, and Fi%. *1 and -able 1/ for linear re%ression.

E&o" sB1====

?ei% tin% delta B=,==2@

Fi(% 4? O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C4 usi&( ANN

Fi(% 44 O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C9 usi&( LR

Tab!e 1; O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C9 usi&( LR

>1.=2.>=1=)8onday >>.=2.>=1=)-uesday >*.=2.>=1=)?ednesday >/.=2.>=1=)- ursday >+.=2.>=1=)Friday >2.=2.>=1=)3aturday >@.=2.>=1=)3unday @APE7B8 2.=>>>1>111 9.9<12<+@*9 <.++>*2@==9 <.<9+++@<99 1>.1@<*91** @.><*>@2=@ <.@2/+1>>/> @APE7B8 <.=<9/>9<>@ R@SE7.58 2/.+9=1/ 11+.@9> 1/=.+>2@ 1=>.1<=+ 1+>.9/// <1.+>1*+ 111.@2+* R@SE7.58 11/.2*<@

9%=% Forecast for co&su er C: is i% li% ted by ourly load "urve &resented in Fi%. /= and s&e"ifi" ele!ents of " ara"terization, %iven in -able >* for ANN fore"ast, and Fi%. /1 and -able >/ for linear re%ression.

"orrelations &erfor!ed on t e database and t e o&ti!al ty&e of fore"ast for a &arti"ular ty&e of "onsu!er. 4esidential "onsu!ers are " ara"terized by a "orrelation "oeffi"ient bet#een t e values of t e &revious #ee$ and t is #ee$ t at are very i% . For t is ty&e of "onsu!er, t ere is a !u" better a""ura"y # en usin% traditional fore"astin% !et ods. Industrial and "o!!er"ial "onsu!ers ave a "orrelation "oeffi"ient # i" varies %reatly, !eanin% very #ea$ "orrelation bet#een t is #ee$ values and t e #ee$ before analysis. For t is ty&e of "onsu!er a&&lyin% t e dyna!i" ANN based fore"ast results in a !u" better a""ura"y of t e fore"ast !et od.

REFERENCES
8.L. ?illis, A.E. 3" auer, M.E.D. Nort "ote, -.D. Uis!or T CFore"astin% distribution syste! loads usin% "urve s a&e "lusterin%D, IEEE -rans. 7o#er A&&aratus 3yst. 1=> 0/1 01<9*1 9<*T<=1. (>,. Dan Mi%oria)O&rea, Ku"ur LuVtrea, V.a. T WEu!an !a" ine interfa"e for daily load s ort ter! fore"astin% usin% re"ursive artifi"ial neural net#or$D, 7ro"eedin%s of t e <t ?3EA3, Ienoa, Italy, >==< (*,. Uir%il Du!bravF, et all. T W5ase study re%ardin% t e load &rofile utilisation for t e 4o!anian ele"tri" ener%y !ar$etD, Ener%eti"a 8a%azine, +2, nr. /H>==9 (/,. *** AN4E T W@* de"ree fro! 2 au%ust >==<, re%ardin% t e a&&roval of t e ele"tri" ener%y fore"ast &ro"edureD, 8. Of. +<1) >==< (+,. *** AN4E T WEle"tri" ener%y fore"ast &ro"edure fro! 2 au%ust >==<D, 8. Of. +<1)>==< (2,. X. Ioude. T C-ra"$in% t e best &redi"tor #it a dete"tion based al%orit !D. In 7ro"eedin%s of t e Moint 3tatisti"al 8eetin%s 0M371, >==9b. (@,. Felea I., et all. WDo"u!entation for t e ele"tri" &o#er balan"e at 3.5. Lotus 5enter 3.A.D, Oradea University, >=1= (9,. E. 5o"a, C?EK)Enabled Utility 8eter Interfa"e, Advan"es in Ele"tri"al and 5o!&uter En%ineerin%D, Uolu!e /, No.>, >==/, A"ade!y of -e" ni"al 3"ien"es Of 4o!ania, Fa"ulty of Ele"tri"al En%ineerin%, University of 3u"eava, I33N 1+9>)@//+, &&. @=)@* (<,. Felea I., Dan F. D3u!!ary of t e ener%y audit &erfor!ed on t e !a" ines t at develo& alu!iniu! &arts by inJe"tionD , Murnal of 3ustainable Ener%y, vol. I, nr./, &%. +*)2= T de"e!brie T >=1= (1=,. 3tefan - euYl, A" i! Reileis, ) W5ollaborative 3oft#are Develo&!ent Usin% 4)For%eD - e 4 Mournal, Invited &a&er on C- e Future of 4D, Uolu!e 1, 8ay>==<, &.<T1/ (11,. 7aul 8urrell, ) WDra#in% Dia%ra!s #it 4D - e 4 Mournal, Invited &a&er on C- e Future of 4D, Uolu!e 1H1, 8ay >==<, &. 1/ T >1 (1>,. 5onstanta Kodea T CArtifi"ial Intelli%en"e Le"tureD 0A3E Ku"uresti1 ###.ia.ase.roHIAH5ursH5urs:>=nr)1=.&df vie# at =1H=*H>=11 (1*,. Zilyeni [t., et all. ) DDaily load fore"astin% usin% re"ursive Artifi"ial Neural Net#or$ vs. "lassi" fore"astin% a&&roa" esD 7ro"eedin%s of t e +t International 3y!&osiu! on A&&lied 5o!&utational Intelli%en"e and Infor!ati"s 03A5I1, >==< -i!iVoara, 4o!\nia, &./9@ ) /<= (1/,. 3 anti 3#aru&, Z., 3atis , K. T CInte%rated ANN a&&roa" to fore"ast loadD, IEE 5o!&uter A&&li"ations in 7o#er, a&ril, >==>, &./2 T +1. (1+,. IavrilaV 8. W Artifi"ial intelli%en"e and er a&&lian"e in ener%eti"sD, Uolu!e I, I . Asa" i 7ublis in% Eouse, IaVi, >==> (1,.

Fi(% 9? O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C: usi&( ANN Tab!e 34 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C: usi&( ANN
>/.=1.>=1=)8onday >+.=1.>=1=)-uesday >2.=1.>=1=)?ednesday >@.=1.>=1=)- ursday >9.=1.>=1=)Friday ><.=1.>=1=)3aturday *=.=1.>=1=)3unday @APE7B8 >=.>@<<<2@1 <.9**9@=1/2 1*.+1*2<=* 1>.=/9+=@/< 1=.=/@92//+ */.>>9*++@2 >>.2=<@1=+2 @APE7B8 1@.+=99+2/< R@SE7.58 =.=+21<1 =.=/@9@1 =.=21=99 =.=+*22* =.=/+<* =.=+</9 =.=>>=/* R@SE7.58 =.=/</22

E&o" sB1====

?ei% tin% delta B=,=/1/

Fi(% 91 O&e )ee. ahea" hour!* forecast for C: usi&( LR Tab!e 39 O&e )ee. ahea" forecast accurac* for C: usi&( LR
>/.=1.>=1=)8onday >+.=1.>=1=)-uesday >2.=1.>=1=)?ednesday >@.=1.>=1=)- ursday >9.=1.>=1=)Friday ><.=1.>=1=)3aturday *=.=1.>=1=)3unday @APE7B8 <.<2/<@9/* 2.@9**@/91 /.@==1<*=/< 1>.>>/=11<< 1/>.<@@<<@< >+.=+9/12*1 1/.+>*/@><@ @APE7B8 *=.9<=*/<*2 R@SE7.58 /<.=/222 *>.<@92/ >=.9*/11 *<.*<=< 11>.1*>1 */.>/*2< 12.9=/1 R@SE7.58 +>.@<

:% CONCL2SION
3-LF is t e !ain ele!ent of analysis of t is resear" , t e develo&!ent or !odifi"ation of de"isions at various sta%es of !ana%e!ent of t e ele"tri"ity su&&ly servi"e is i% ly related to t e load fore"ast. Ea" of t e fore"astin% !et ods used are suitable for ea" of t e t ree ty&es of "onsu!ers analysedG stati" !et od ) linear re%ression and dyna!i" !et od ) based on artifi"ial neural net#or$s. - ere is an interde&endent relations i& bet#een t e

(12,. Iraur A., Filote 5. T CA ne# A&&ro" of t e Instantaneous A"tive and 4ea"tive 7o#er

8easure!entD, Develo&!ent and A&&li"ation

3yste!s, I33N 1>>>)@>*/, 3u"eava, nr.<, 1<<9, &&. >+1)>+