The Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Integrated Report

Date: Wednesday April 2nd, 2014 Biology 4A03

Adam Armstrong 1046412 Alanna Smolarz 1132029 Emily Hague 1052572 Michael Hafezi 1067616 Samantha Stead 1057188 Shelby Hofstetter 1157695

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Acknowledgments Dear Reader, The Eco-Aware Climate Consultants would like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. Lovaye Kajiura for her mentorship throughout the many steps taken to create this report. Through her guidance this report was able to flourish into what it is today, and become an incredible capstone to many of our groups final year at McMaster University. We would further like to thank Emily Stacy our teaching assistant for her guidance throughout the semester. The time that was taken in order to answer our many questions is greatly appreciated. Continuing we would also like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. Graham Scott for allowing us the time to sit down with our group for an interview. Your insight into species plasticity was greatly appreciated. Furthermore we would like to thank our colleagues in Biology 4A03/ 2014 for allowing us to share in your ideas and learning. Together we have all worked to create meshing reports that truly prove how interconnected our world is. Lastly we would like to thank our families and friends for their continued support throughout these past couple of months. Whether it was helping us practice for presentations, editing our work, or just being there for support your efforts did not go unnoticed.

Sincerely Thank You,

The Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Adam Armstrong Alanna Smolarz Emily Hague Michael Hafezi Sam Stead Shelby Hofstetter

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Table of Contents
List of Figures and Tables 1. Introduction 1.1 Climate Change 2. Synthesis 2.1 Question 1: Response and Prediction of Changes 2.1.1 Introduction 2.1.2 Terrestrial Environments 2.1.2.1 Range Shifts 2.1.2.2 Phenotypic Plasticity and Phenology 2.1.2.3 Predicting Changes 2.1.2.4 Species Management 2.1.2.5 Future Directions 2.1.3 Marine Environments 2.1.3.1 Changing Phenology 2.1.3.2 Temperature Effects 2.1.3.3 Range Shifts 2.1.3.4 Predicting Changes 2.1.3.5 Future Directions 2.2 Question 2: Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters 2.2.1 Effects of Climate Change on Occurrence of Natural Disasters 2.2.2 Disturbances, Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis and Resilience 2.2.3 Introduction to Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters 2.2.3.1 Floods 2.2.3.2 Droughts 2.2.3.3 Forest Fires 2.2.3.4 Landslides 2.2.3.5 Hurricanes 2.2.4 Conclusions 2.2.5 Future Directions 2.3 Question 3: Ecological Based Human Measures 2.3.1 Introduction 2.3.2 Management Options for Terrestrial Ecosystems Affected by Wildfires 2.3.3 Restoration Strategies for Wetland Habitats Affected by Storm Surges 2.3.4 Conservation Strategies for Marine Environments affected by Ocean Warming 2.3.5 Future Directions 3. Integration 3.1 Agricultural Implications of a Warming Climate 3.1.1 Impacts of Agriculture on Global Warming 3.1.2 Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture 3.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health 3.2.1 Disease Vectors Page # 6 8 9 11 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 24 24 24 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 34 34 37 40 43 45 47 47 48 52 52 3|Page

3.2.2 Heat Waves 3.2.3 Natural Disasters 3.2.3.1 Floods 3.2.3.2 Hurricanes 3.3 Effect of Floods on the Spread of Contaminants 3.3.1 Future Directions 3.4 The Relationship between Climate Change and Poverty 3.4.1 Increased Carbon Emissions 3.4.2 Unsustainable Livelihood and Climate Warming 3.4.3 Unsustainable Livelihoods Increases Risks 3.4.4 Increased Vulnerability to Natural Disasters 3.4.5 Future Directions 3.5 Climate Change and Drought Resistant Crops 3.5.1 Climate Change-Mediated Crop Yield Loss and Future Food Security 3.5.2 Possible Climate Change Outcomes Due to Human Activity 3.5.3 Global Food Security and Areas of Need 3.5.4 Improving Drought-Tolerance by Breeding and Genetic Modification 3.5.5 Potential Risks of Genetic Modification 3.5.6 Present Genetically Modified Drought-Tolerance and Future Interests 3.5.7 Conclusions and Future Directs 3.6 Sustainable Solutions to Anthropogenic Changes and Climate Change 3.6.1 Introduction 3.6.2 Adaptive Water Management to Mitigate Direct Climate Change Effects 3.6.3 Strategies to Manage Indirect Effects of Climate Change 3.6.3.1 Clear Cutting in Relation to Wildfires and Landslides 3.6.3.1.1 Wildfires Caused by Clear cutting, Enhanced by Climate Change 3.6.3.1.2 Landslides Caused by Clear cutting, Enhanced by Climate Change 3.6.3.2 Sustainability of Costal Protection and Alternate Strategies 3.6.3.3 Effects of Hydroelectric Dams on the Climate and Earthquakes 3.6.4 Future Directions 4. Conclusions 4.1 Concluding Remarks 5. Reflections 5.1 Agricultural Implications of a Warming Climate 5.2 Insights Gained 5.3 Learning Experiences 5.3.1 Within Groups 5.3.2 Between Groups 5.4 Challenges Faced and Resolutions 5.5 Developed Skills 5.6 Future Goals 5.7 Final Remarks 6. References

53 54 54 55 57 58 60 60 61 62 63 63 66 66 66 67 68 69 69 70 73 73 73 75 76 76 78 79 80 82 84 85 87 88 88 89 89 89 90 91 92 92 93

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7. Appendix Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Appendix F Appendix G Appendix H Appendix I

116 117 124 128 137 158 165 167 187 194

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List of Figures and Tables

Figure 1. Fluctuations of temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctic ice cores (Whittingstall). Figure 2. Global temperature anomalies since 1870 (Dahlman, 2009). Figure 3. This diagram was used to represent the vulnerability of a species or ecosystems based on its exposure to climate change (x- axis) as well as its sensitivity and its ability to adapt (yaxis) (Dawson et al. 2011). Figure 4. Graphical representation of the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis showing species richness for different levels of disturbance (Wilkinson, 1999). Figure 5. Mean annual relative growth rates by drought class (1, no drought 4, severe drought) for pine, oak and mesophytic species groups (Klos et al. 2009). Figure 6. Graphical summary of the correlation between temperature increase and area burned (Gillett et al. 2004). Figure 7. Inforgraphics provided for public distribution depicting the current trends of wildfires and climate change in western United States (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013) Figure 8. Intensity of hurricane according to the Saffir- Simpson scale from categories 1-5. It is seen that for both number of intense hurricanes and percent of intense hurricanes, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes is increasing. Category 1,2 and 3 hurricanes appear to be decreasing (Webster et al. 2005). Figure 9. Visual representation of the differences between conventional coastal engineering (left) and ecosystem-based coastal defence (right). Blue arrows indicate an increase in intensity of storm waves and storm surges. The green arrows represent the wetland sedimentation stimulated by storm waves (Temmerman et al. 2013). Figure 10. Map showing the global need for coastal flood protection and large-scale samples. Potential application of ecosystem-based defence is also shown: dark green has the greatest potential, pale green has moderate potential, orange represents cities with minimal potential, blue are cities existing directly on coasts with the least potential (Temmerman et al. 2013). Figure 11. The distributions of peak surge heights along four profiles across mangrove zones of varying widths (coloured lines). The black solid line represents surge amplitudes along a profile without mangrove effects (Zhang et al. 2012). Figure 12a. Relationship between rice spikelet sterility and the mean maximum temperature during the 20 days before and after anthesis (Taro et al. 2006).

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Figure 12b. Relationship between maize yield and mean diurnal temperature in summer (Taro et al. 2006). Figure 13. The projected levels of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from both developed (OECD) and developing (Non-OECD) nations (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). Figure 14. The different components of adaptive management represented in an extended PSIR (Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework (Pahl-Wostl, 2007). Figure 15. Susceptibility of forests to wildfires as a result of damages caused by clear cutting (Franklin & Forman, 1987). Figure 16. Fire risk compared to time since landscape was first clear-cut. The landscape was differentiated between ignition points and forest edges (Lindenmayer et al. 2009). Figure 17. This map constructed using Google Maps but provided by International Rivers displays the locations worldwide of suspected reservoir-induced seismicity (International Rivers, 2014). Table 1. Cumulative area bound, forested area and percent area burned for ecozones in Canada between 1980 and 1999 (Flannigan et al. 2005). Table 2. Summary of main findings on landscape-wildfire interactions in Mediterranean Europe to address and proposed policy and landscape management responses (Moreira et al. 2011).

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1. Introduction

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1. 1 Climate Change
Planet Earth formed

approximately 4.6 billion years ago. Fluctuations in climate have occurred history, throughout following a Earths cyclical

pattern ranging from periods of warming to ice ages. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon
Figure 2. Fluctuations of temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctic ice cores (Whittingstall, 2012).

dioxide levels and atmospheric temperatures (Figure 1). Recently, specifically since the Industrial Revolution, there has been a dramatic dioxide increase emissions in carbon due to
Figure 1. Global temperature anomalies since 1870 (Dahlman, 2009).

anthropogenic activities. This has

led to an increase in global temperatures (Whittingstall, 2012). Temperatures have risen in recent years; for example, Whittingstall (2012) documented an increase of about 0.7C from normal values (Figure 2). This increase in temperature, while seemingly insignificant, has many pervasive and devastating impacts throughout the worlds ecosystems. As temperatures increase, tolerance limits are breached, forcing species to relocate to new elevations and latitudes. This poses a

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threat to native species in these regions as it can alter ecosystem functioning through different interactions (Malcom & Pitelka, 2000). This is one of many ways that ecosystems are altered as a result of a warming climate. A further facet of climate change is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events (IPCC, 2007). For example, as sea and atmospheric temperatures increase, hurricanes are forecasted to increase in frequency and severity (IPCC, 2007). The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis shows the relevance of increasing extreme climate events in terms of ecosystem dynamics. A change to an ecosystems disturbance regime may result in an increase or decrease in biodiversity based on the specific system being investigated. Many tactics are being investigated as potential solutions for ecosystem defense and remediation in response to climate change-induced natural disasters. Based on the observations of increasing climate change and natural disasters, it is extremely important to understand and adapt to changes that this will cause within natural ecosystems. With this in mind, it was decided that the focus of this report would be divided into three sections, based on three research questions: 1) How do ecosystems respond to climate change and how can we predict these changes? 2) What are the impacts of climate change-induced natural disasters within an ecosystem? 3) What measures, based on ecological principles, can be taken by humans to help ecosystems affected by various climate change-induced natural disasters?

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2. Synthesis

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Question 1

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2.1 Question 1: Response and Prediction of Changes 2.1.1 Introduction

The synthesis of this concept addresses the question: What are the responses of species and ecosystems to climate change and how can we predict the overall impact of these responses. This synthesis will discuss responses observed in both terrestrial and marine environments, touching on similar points relevant to both of these ecosystems.

2.1.2 Terrestrial Environments

Although land-use change is the main cause of biodiversity loss due to habitat destruction, climate change is becoming an increasing threat to terrestrial ecosystems (Dawson et al. 2011). Species have evolved under a particular set of conditions and climate warming is pushing these organisms to their tolerance limit and upsetting the delicate balance of the ecosystem as a whole.

2.1.2.1 Range Shifts

Organisms and species can respond in many ways to a changing environment. Many species will migrate to a region where environmental conditions are the same as those to which they have adapted. Range shifts have already been reported with many different arthropods in terrestrial ecosystems. In the absence of extreme winter temperatures in a warming climate, these organisms are able to survive through the winter, allowing for a northward movement of their range (Tuite et al. 2013). These species are then considered to be invasive species and can often have detrimental impacts on the ecosystems that they enter. For example, the deer tick, a transmitter of Lyme disease caused by bacteria in the genus Borelia, is spreading throughout 13 | P a g e

higher latitudes of North America, affecting many lifeforms (Tuite et al. 2013). Another example of a species invading a terrestrial ecosystem is the Mountain Pine Beetle, which are also increasing in range due to less extreme winter temperatures. These beetles cause widespread die-offs of tree stands and a resulting increase in forest fires (Kurz et al. 2008), ultimately resulting in a positive feedback to climate warming. Expansion of ranges will be a required response to climate change by many species, both beneficial and non-beneficial to humans. Since many desirable organisms are limited by physical habitat barriers caused by fragmentation, efforts can be put towards facilitating the migration of these species to more suitable environments (Dawson et al. 2011). This could serve as an effective conservation strategy for species at risk.

2.1.2.2 Phenotypic Plasticity and Phenology

Along with the previously discussed migration strategies, terrestrial organisms can cope with changing conditions in other ways. One method is adaptation, the natural selection of genes that incur a higher fitness. This is a long-term response and effects species rather than individuals. Short-lived species with high reproduction rates will be able to adapt more quickly to changing conditions and therefore be more likely to survive in the long term. Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of an organism to change the phenotype expressed under different environmental conditions, is another mechanism used (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006). Phenotypic plasticity has been demonstrated in response to changing phenological events for terrestrial ecosystems (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006). A phenological event occurs periodically in response to seasonal cues. If two trophic levels are adapted to different environmental cues that do not co-vary under global warming, there will be a mismatch between these species. For example, European Great Tits feed caterpillars to their young and therefore, the success of their 14 | P a g e

offspring is dependent on the availability of this food source (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006). Global warming has resulted in snowmelt occurring on an earlier date and therefore an earlier spring. As a result, caterpillars have been reaching maturity and therefore peaking in abundance earlier. The Great Tits, however, have not been hatching at an earlier date and as a result there is a mismatch between these two trophic levels (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006). The Great Tits most able to modify their time of egg-laying will have the most reproductive success and therefore, there will be a directional selection for this trait (Bradshaw & Holzapfel, 2006). This case study shows an adaptive shift to birds with greater phenotypic plasticity.

2.1.2.3 Predicting Changes

In light of current trends of climate change, it is important to know whether organisms have the necessary genetic architecture to respond to expected temperature changes or whether they must migrate. Studying terrestrial organisms tolerance ranges for different physical

parameters (i.e. temperature) can reveal the environments in which organisms can inhabit. However, in order to determine the environment in which an organism will inhabit, the ecological context must be considered. This refers to the concept of the fundamental niche versus the realized niche. For example, a particular species may be able to inhabit a region with higher temperatures, but its food source cannot. It is often considered easier to predict how organisms will respond to warming temperatures rather than how ecosystems will respond. This information can then be integrated with information on how terrestrial ecosystems have changed in the past to create models, such as climate envelope models (CEMs), that will predict future changes and facilitate the application of human-mediated conservation strategies (Duncan et al. 2009).

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CEMs are used to determine the range of a species in a different climate (Duncan et al. 2009). These models have been criticized because they do not factor in variables other than climate, such as biotic interactions, dispersal limitations and environmental constraints (Duncan
et al. 2009). If a CEM can accurately predict a species range under different climates, then it is

assumed that climate limits distribution. CEMs were developed for South African dung beetles in their native region and subsequently were used to predict their range when introduced to Australia. The predicted and actual ranges were not always the same for the introduced species, indicating that non-climatic variables were having an impact (Duncan et al. 2009). More extreme results of climate change can include a decreased abundance and local extirpation of species when insufficient time is available for them to adopt or evolve avoidance strategies (McCain & King, 2014). In order to assess the vulnerability of a species to climate change, three components must be analyzed: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Dawson et al. 2011). CEMs only explore exposure, which is the predicted change in climate for the range of the species. Adaptive capacity and sensitivity takes into account the ability of species to respond with phenotypic plasticity, adaptation, and migration (Dawson et al. 2011). Furthermore, vulnerability assessments have been suggested to identify which species will be most at risk in a changing climate (Dawson et al. 2011). For instance, traits that have been associated with higher risk include poor dispersal abilities, long generation times, low reproductive output, large body size and small geographic ranges (Dawson et al. 2011). Long generation times and low reproductive rate result in higher risk because they decrease a species ability to genetically adapt to environmental changes. It was hypothesized for terrestrial ecosystems that smaller animals may be able to persist as climate warms by taking advantage of different microhabitats (McCain & King, 2014). In addition, it has been shown that those species

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that are at higher latitudes and elevations such as polar bears, pika and caribou are at a greater risk (McCain & King, 2014). Lastly, species with larger relative brain sizes are likely better respond to challenges posed by global warming, such as colonizing new regions (Sol et al. 2006). For example, a study done by Sol et al. (2006) showed that bird species with larger relative brain sizes experience less mortality.

2.1.2.4 Species management

Methods have been developed for determining whether a particular species requires intervention (Figure 3). They are based on the same three factors of vulnerability discussed

previously: exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity. Exposure can be

Figure 3. This diagram was used to represent the vulnerability of a species or ecosystems based on its exposure to climate change (x-axis) as well as its sensitivity and ability to adapt (y-axis) (Dawson et al. 2011).

predicted from climate models, while the other two variables are

physiological characteristics. Species with low exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity are not at risk currently but must be monitored because minor changes in environment would put them at risk. Contrastingly, species with high exposure, low adaptive capacity and high sensitivity require high intervention (Dawson et al. 2011). However, low-intensity intervention is required for species with high exposure, low sensitivity and high adaptive capacity. An example of low-intensity intervention is in reserves in Yellowstone, WY, where there is the occasional introduction of top predators and eradication of invasive species (Dawson et al. 2011). Intervention may require costly procedures and therefore economic costs must be 17 | P a g e

reviewed as well (Dawson et al. 2011). In addition, the economic services provided by an ecosystem will be taken into account when deciding what efforts should be applied for the species (Dawson et al. 2011).

2.1.2.5 Future Direction

There are many areas where further research is needed. Ecologists, climatologists and physiologists should continue to work together to develop models to be used to predict ecosystem changes in light of a changing climate. A part of this should include further research on the tolerance limits of different species. In addition, human intervention costs should be weighed using the adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure of a species to determine whether the benefits would outweigh the costs. If decided that intervention is required, different

management practices such as translocation of species or facilitating migration could be solutions to easing the challenges faced by species in a warming climate.

2.1.3 Marine Environments

Climate change is having a significant impact on the worlds oceans and many of these changes are affecting levels of aquatic biodiversity. Some of these changes include increases in ocean surface temperatures, increasing acidification of the water, and rises in ocean levels. These changes in the oceans environment are leading to different species compositions. Many of these species have to adapt to their ever-changing environment in ways that they have never had to before.

2.1.3.1 Changing Phenology

The phenology of many species is changing in response to the climatic shift and this is causing cascading effects throughout aquatic ecosystems on many different species. One of these 18 | P a g e

changes is affecting different members of the plankton taxa. A long-term study from 1958 to 2002 determined that plankton blooms across all taxa have been changing (Edwards & Richardson, 2004). Many of these species are blooming earlier in the season, which may be causing a decoupling in the feeding time of other species which depend on the plankton as a food source (Edwards & Richardson, 2004). One phylum in particular, Echinodermata, was shown to have changed its blooming time to 47 days earlier fron 1958 to 2002 (Edwards & Richardson, 2004). This study shows that although some plankton species moved drastically forward in their blooming event and some backwards there was an overall trend of deviation from their original blooming times (Edwards & Richardson, 2004).

2.1.3.2 Temperature Effects

As stated previously, changes in ocean temperatures are affecting the species that survive within them. Although specific effects range from species to species, the general ecology of the oceans have been changing due to the increase in ocean temperature resulting from anthropogenically-induced climate change. Many species within the oceans already lived close to their thermal tolerance levels prior to recent warming and so rises in ocean temperatures is only expected to be negatively impacting many of these species (Hughes et al. 2003). An example of this negative influence is the increase in mass bleaching events of coral in the past century (Hughes et al. 2003). These mass bleaching events, which will be discussed further in the synthesis of the third question, result in the destruction of coral reef systems which support a large proportion of the oceans biodiversity.

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2.1.3.3 Range Shifts

Along with changes in species phenology, climate change has also had an effect on species ranges. Species that are capable of migration are moving into new territories which are now more suitable to their survival. These species are following the favourable conditions that they require for survival which include, but are not limited to environmental temperature, food availability, and more. As surface temperatures in the tropics and mid-latitudes warm beyond species tolerance levels, there is a general migration towards the polar regions of the planet where the temperatures are more fitting for their survival (Mueter & Litzow, 2008). One dramatic example of this range shift is that of the diatom Neodenticula seminae, which occurred in 1999. This species, a common primary producer in the North Pacific, was able to infiltrate the North Atlantic for the first time in 800,000 years due to decreased Arctic ice cover (Doney et al. 2012). Continuing with this trend, migratory changes have also been seen in the North Sea, a portion of the Atlantic located between the United Kingdom, Norway and Germany. From 1986 to 2005 the species richness in the North Sea increased by nearly 50% (Doney et al. 2012). The main increase in this richness came from increases in small-bodied southern species which, due to warming water temperatures, were able to infiltrate and expand into the new North Sea environment. Along with the North Sea example, there have also been noticeable differences in the fish species that reside in the North Atlantic. In a study that examined a range of fish species in this area, it was found that about half of the fish species studied had moved northward and could now be found at deeper profiles of the ocean (Nye et al. 2009). Along with this discovery, it was found that the temperatures which the fish were living were not different from where they were found previously. This suggests that fish species will continue to adapt their ranges as long as they are able to keep a constant environmental temperature (Walmsley, 2012). While this

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tactic will work for species in the near future it is not a sustained method of survival. As climate change continues to take its toll, eventually species will travel as far north or southward as they can go. With nowhere further to go, these species will most likely die off as they are no longer able to adapt to the changing oceanic environments.

2.1.3.4 Predicting Changes

Predicting the changes in ecosystems that will result from climate change is a difficult task as there are many complex processes involved in natural environments. While it is well known that climate change is having a large impact on the species in the oceans, currently there is no way to completely predict what will happen. Some scientists suggest a top-down approach (predators to primary producers) while others suggest that a bottom-up approach (primary producers to predators) is best to predict what will happen to the oceans in the future. Though these are both valid approaches, individual areas of the oceans will most likely be affected to different degrees by functional redundancy (the amount of species that perform similar function in the environment), the rate at which the community structure is changing, as well as further methods of community change (Doney et al. 2012). Thus, further knowledge of climate changes impacts on community structure is required.

2.1.3.5 Future Directions

Further research needs to be done in a couple of different areas in order to better understand the effects that climate change is having on marine species. Firstly, better understanding of the warming trends in the oceans will allow more accurate predictions on where species will migrate to and approximation of the time it will take for this migration to occur. Furthermore, research into the tolerance limits of marine species will better help to predict which species will be most affected by further climate change and ocean environmental changes. These 21 | P a g e

two areas of study would greatly increase the accuracy of predictions being made by scientists across the globe in this area of study.

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Question 2

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2.2 Question 2: Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters 2.2.1 Effects of Climate Change on Occurrence of Natural Disasters
As mentioned previously, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (IPCC, 2007). In the future, a warmer climate will result in increased droughts (IPCC, 2007). Increased temperatures also allow the atmosphere to hold more water, which causes an increase in intense precipitation events, leading to flooding (IPCC, 2007). In addition, the increased prevalence of precipitation can lead to an increased frequency of rainfall-triggered landslides (Burma & Dehn, 1998). Models have also projected an increase in the severity of tropical storms, with greater intensities of precipitation and winds (IPCC, 2007). After a hurricane, damaged trees and plants increase the risk of wildfire which may be exacerbated by temperature increases and summer dryness (Turton, 2012). Some of these projected changes have already been observed, including an increase in frequency of heat waves and intense precipitation events, as well an increase in the average number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the past 30 years (IPCC, 2007).

2.2.2 Disturbances, Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis and Resilience

In 1978, Joseph Connell proposed the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, suggesting that species richness of an ecosystem is highest at medium levels of disturbance (Figure 4) (Wilkinson, 1999). Low levels of disturbance will lead to lower species diversity due to competitive exclusion while high levels of disturbance will lead to
Figure 4: Graphical representation of the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis showing species richness for different levels of disturbance (Wilkinson, 1999).

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lower levels of species diversity due to the persistence of pioneering species (Wilkinson, 1999). This theory demonstrates the importance of disturbance regimes in maintaining a diverse ecosystem. Disturbance can be classified in multiple ways based on their cause (either natural or anthropogenic) or severity and frequency (chronic, stochastic or catastrophic) (Finkelstein et al. 2010). Chronic disturbances are constantly occurring and are generally of low intensity (i.e. seasonal harvesting), stochastic disturbances are of low to moderate intensity and occur erratically (i.e. weather events), and catastrophic events occur rarely but have the potential to be of a very high intensity (i.e. hurricane) (Finkelstein et al. 2010). Thus, the disasters previously discussed can be attributed primarily to natural causes, despite their anthropogenically-induced increases, and can be classified as either stochastic or catastrophic. While natural disasters have the potential to cause a severe short-term population decline, some species have developed defenses for these naturally occurring disturbances (Finkelstein et al. 2010). A resilient ecosystem is one that can resist damages caused by disturbance and retains the same species composition without undergoing a phase shift (Turton, 2012). A phase shift involves an abrupt, often permanent change of ecosystem composition and function into a new qualitative state (ex. phase shift between vegetation types), once certain environmental thresholds have been crossed (Turton, 2012). Phase shifts depend on both the external disturbance to the system as well as the internal resilience of the system (Turton, 2012). Environmental degradation of an ecosystem as well as disturbances of greater severity would increase the potential for a phase shift.

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2.2.3 Introduction to Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters

Despite most assumptions of their destructive impacts on ecosystems, many natural disasters result in no significant ecosystem impacts, and some even have positive impacts on an ecosystem (National Research Council, 1999). Climate change-induced natural disasters include many different types of disturbances and therefore have differing effects on ecosystems. It is often assumed that due to their greater spatial and temporal extent, disturbances such as droughts and floods generally create greater environmental and long lasting impacts compared to hurricanes, severe winter storms and thunderstorms (National Research Council, 1999). Natural disasters are expected to have a more significant effect on small and isolated populations, which can lead to extinction if they are endemic to the area of the disturbance (Dalsgaard et al. 2007). The synthesis of this concept addresses the question: What are the impacts of climate changeinduced natural disasters within an ecosystems.

2.2.3.1 Floods
Floods play an important role in shaping an ecosystem (LeRoy Poff, 2002). In general, large floods are considered to have positive impacts on some species and negative impacts on others (National Research Council, 1999). Floods can often directly kill organisms such as small fish and invertebrates through scouring, burial or displacing them into less favourable habitats (LeRoy Poff, 2002). However, they also create new habitat, which many species are adapted to exploit. Within floodplains, floods serve to saturate organic matter that has accumulated, promoting the cycling of nutrients and therefore boosting the ecosystems productivity ( LeRoy Poff, 2002). This process has been shown to increase the production of various types of plankton which supports juvenile fish, leading to increased yields from some floodplain fisheries during flood pulses (LeRoy Poff, 2002). Some species rely on flooding as a part of their lifecycle, for 26 | P a g e

example Cottonwood trees, which rely on seasonal snowmelt flooding in order to transport their seeds (LeRoy Poff, 2002). Another example of the dual effects of a flood is in a great flood that occurred in the American Midwest in 1993, where many fish species were able to spawn on the inundated floodplain, which also increased the amount of food present for wading birds (National Research Council, 1999). However, this flood had a negative impact on long-lived species such as trees due to the stress caused by the long inundation (National Research Council, 1999). An increase in the magnitude and/or frequency of flooding is expected to cause a nonuniform response throughout river ecosystems due to their variability (LeRoy Poff, 2002). Seasonal floods in some cases are expected to occur up to one month earlier in the year, which would have a significant impact on species such as riparian trees that rely on snowmelt to transfer their seeds (LeRoy Poff, 2002).

2.2.3.2 Droughts
Droughts, unlike floods, are generally seen to have mostly negative impacts on ecosystems (National Research Council, 1999). The millennium drought in Australia, had effects throughout most southern and eastern parts of the county, lasting for over a decade (Bond et al. 2008). In a study of its effects within aquatic ecosystems it was found that drought can cause the waters edge to contract, effectively isolating habitats and stranding different species. This can lead to death of robust riparian trees (Bond et al. 2008). In testing the effects of drought on a forested ecosystem in the United States, one study found that droughts can cause a decrease in growth or mortality of some species as well as have indirect effects by making trees more susceptible to other biotic and abiotic factors such as fire and disease (Klos et al. 2009). There was a decrease in mean annual growth seen in several tree species as the severity of drought increased (Figure 5) (Klos et al. 2009). Different species act differently to drought 27 | P a g e

depending on their tolerance to this form of disturbance (Klos et al. 2009). The insignificant amount of change in annual growth rate within the Oak species shows a greater tolerance of drought in this species (partially due to greater root depth) and suggests that an increase

Figure 5. Mean annual relative growth rates by drought class (no drought (1) - severe drought (4)) for pine, oak, and mesophytic species groups (Klos et al. 2009).

in frequency and/or intensity of drought may cause a shift to an Oak tree-dominant community (Klos et al. 2009). Despite the fact that ecosystems with seasonal droughts are well-adapted to this disturbance regime, severe drought conditions can push the limits of this adaptation (Bond et al. 2008). Additionally, due to their potentially large spatial scale, droughts have the ability to affect vast areas and cause complete species extinctions (Bond et al. 2008).

2.2.3.3 Forest Fires

As mentioned, the occurrence of forest fires is increasing due to global climate change. This is one of the most dominant type of disturbance of the forests in the United States (Flannigan et al. 2000). Total area burned is strongly related to an increase in both observed
Figure 6. Graphical summary of the correlation between temperature increase and area burned(Gillett et al. 2004)

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and simulated temperatures (Figure 6) (Gillett et al. 2004). This increase in fire is also aided by an increase in cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, which can serve as ignition agents (Flannigan et al. 2005). Forest fires, in some cases, can be beneficial to an ecosystem. However, if they occur too frequently, or not frequently enough, they can upset the delicate balance in place (Flannigan et al. 2000). The severity of a fire is measured by the amount of fuel it consumes; the more fuel eaten up by the fire, the more severely it is classified (Flannigan, et al. 2000). Fire causes an increase in the erosion of soils as well as the surface runoff (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960). Ahlgren and Ahlgren (1960) described how the loss of vegetation on stream banks post-fire led to the collapse of these banks. The erosion and runoff was a product of the fire causing lower infiltration rates of the soil, up to 38 percent in some studies (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960). In some cases, the decrease in the soil fertility caused very young seedling growth to be impaired (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960). Germination has also been reported to be much lower on soils covered in ash (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960). In some cases, however, burning of the soil has proven to increase plant growth, specifically the germination of the Scots pine (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960). There are also a variety of impacts on the vegetation of burned ecosystems. In one study, it was found that burning increased growth of lichens and mosses. The removal of upper vegetation by the burning caused an increased in sunlight, which was beneficial for growth of vegetation on the forest floor (Ahlgren & Ahlgren, 1960).

2.2.3.4 Landslides
Landslides are natural disasters associated with the destructive repositioning of soil and sediment from an area of higher elevation to one of lower elevation. Typically, they are caused by precipitation or earthquakes and can result in substantial changes in the local ecosystem 29 | P a g e

composition due to their destructive nature (Walker et al. 1996). Following heavy precipitation, the saturation of soils on steep slopes can result in slips, which may cause damages to areas below (Iverson, 2000). With increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, some have predicted that small-scale landslides will decrease in frequency due to increased evaporation rates, resulting in the future risk of large-scale landslides (Collison et al. 2000). In addition to the initial damages caused by a landslide on the local ecosystem, the introduction of a new layer of topsoil and the clearing of foliage in the surrounding area can present the opportunity for the establishment of pioneering species. Most notably, the presence of seeds and nutrients in newly laid soil can determine how rapidly pioneer species will establish themselves before succession of long-standing species (Walker et al. 1996). However, the soils of landslides tend to possess less organic matter than the areas below them, which can significantly impact the rate at which these areas are able to recover. In a study of 12 landslides by Walker et al. (1996), it was found that soil nutrients in the upper levels took up to 55 years to reach comparable levels to the nutrient levels of the indigenous soils below. Though recovery from a landslide can be slow, the availability of cleared topsoil means that pioneer species will eventually establish themselves, fuelling the recovery of the local ecosystem. Despite this, recovery of long-established species can be a slow process and with the predicted increase in large-scale landslides, such ecosystems face an increased threat (Collison et al. 2000).

2.2.3.5 Hurricanes
Hurricanes are considered to be a large, infrequent disturbance (Lugo, 2008) and generally have less of an effects on an ecosystem (National Research Council, 1999). In a review of literature on the effects of hurricanes in forested ecosystems, it was found that while hurricanes have many visible effects, such as defoliation, debris accumulation, etc., they rarely 30 | P a g e

cause significant changes in ecosystem processes (Lugo, 2008). With a path of 50-150 miles wide, damages often include erosion of shorelines as well as tree destruction (National Research Council, 1999). Any effects on fauna in these ecosystems, including bird and lizard species, did not occur during the actual hurricane event, but rather as a result of habitat destruction (Lugo, 2008). For example, the Roe Deer was minimally impacted by Hurrican Lothar, which passed through their habitat in 1999. Instead, populations actually increased following the hurricane due to the creation of openings in their forest habitat, which enhanced their foraging abilities (Gaillard et al. 2003). Following Hurricane Larry on the West Tropics Forest region of northeast Australia, many endemic mammals, as well as many beetle populations, were not significantly impacted by the event (Turton, 2012). In addition, invasion of weeds in riparian areas that did occur as a result of the disturbance were often short-lived, dying out following regrowth of the forest canopy within 1-2 years (Turton, 2012). Damages are often dependent on location within the path of the hurricane, being generally less extensive further from the center of the storm (Turton, 2012).

2.2.4 Conclusions
Although natural disasters tend to be associated with negative impacts, it can be seen that this is not always the case. Ecosystems have adapted to specific disturbance regimes and can even benefit from certain conditions that are created following such disturbances. Though many predictions can be made, it is not known what effects an increase in frequency and severity of these events will have on ecosystems, even ones with species well adapted to these events.

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2.2.5 Future Directions

The effects of natural disasters on ecosystems are many and varying, leading to a diverse and complex area of study. With such complex processes and systems involved, it is unlikely that the effects of any type of natural disaster will be completely understood and predicted. However, further research into this complex topic as well as into climate models projecting changes in occurrence of these disturbances will be integral in allowing for more effective planning of the protection or remediation of ecosystems. General circulation models (GCM) are commonly used in studies to simulate this future climate change and are built around the effects of various concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Flannigan et al. 2005). They are multipurpose and can be used to explore the many effects of these gases on oceans and land surfaces (Flannigan et al. 2005). For example in one study it was projected that the forest area burned by the end of the century would increase by anywhere from 74% to 118% (Flannigan et
al. 2005). These models will likely never be completely accurate, therefore, there is always room

for improvement. With the predicted increase in frequency of such events, further research into the effects of compounded disturbances within an ecosystem and how this affects the ecosystem resilience will also be of increasing relevance.

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Question 3

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2.3 Question 3: Ecological Based Human Measures 2.3.1 Introduction

The geophysical events mentioned previously, including earthquakes, landslides, flooding, and hurricanes, have been classified as natural disasters as a result of human influence (Alcantara-Ayala, 2002). As previously discussed, climate change, although a natural phenomenon, has been accelerated by human activities and has had detrimental impacts on ecosystems around the world, both marine and terrestrial alike (OBrien et al. 2006). There are impending risks to ecosystems associated with increasing natural disasters induced by accelerated climate change. Since little can be done to resolve anthropogenic mistakes committed against the environment, greater attention needs to be paid towards preparing for the expected changes, as opposed to remediating damages done. The synthesis of this concept addresses the question: what measures, based on ecological principles, can be taken by humans to help ecosystems affected by various climate change-induced natural disasters. Management, restoration, and conservation are the three approaches humans can take to help combat the effects of natural disasters on terrestrial ecosystems, wetland habitats, and marine environments respectively.

2.3.2 Management Options for Terrestrial Ecosystems Affected by Wildfires

Projected climate change for the 21st century is expected to directly and indirectly alter climate-sensitive processes of ecosystems. It has also been shown that climate change will bring about changes in terrestrial disturbance regimes, particularly regarding wildfires (Schumacher & Bugmann, 2006). Recent studies have begun to focus on assessing the interactions amongst

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forest dynamics, climate change, and large-scale disturbances such as fire in order to develop effective forest management strategies. Siberia, Canada, Alaska and the Western United States are likely to be most greatly affected by increased wildfires associated with climate change (Flannigan et al. 2005). Table 1 summarizes the fire properties in Canada, an area of growing importance due to its vulnerability with respect to future climate change. Similarly, the Western United States is of even greater concern due to the longer fire seasons, drier conditions, increased amounts of fuel,
Table 1. Cumulative area burned, forested area and percent area burned for ecozones in Canada between 1980 and 1999 (Flannigan et al. 2005).

and increased lightning storms, all of which are associated with climate change (Westerling et al. 2006). The infographic on wildfires in Western US provided by the Union of Concerned Scientists (2013) illustrates the expected effects (Figure 7). Although these areas are permitted to have prescribed burns and, despite current fire management which is able to control close to 97% of all fires before they reach 200 ha in size, 3% of all fires surpass human capability to
Figure 7. Infographics provided for public distribution depicting the current trends of wildfires and climate change in western United States (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013)

suppress and account for almost 97% of the total area burned

(Stocks et al. 2002). This is alarming considering the expected increases in numbers of longer and larger wildfires. Weather variables, such as atmospheric moisture, wind, and precipitation

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patterns have all been shown to influence wildfires greatly. However, temperature appears to be the most important variable as an increase leads to drier fuels, due to increased evapotranspiration, and lightning storms (Flannigan et al. 2009). Fire management via landscape policies is not a new concept, and has been occurring since the early 1900s in certain areas of the world. However, although certain countries, specifically Canada, are recognized as leaders in fire management, there is a need for better policies focussed on prevention rather than suppression. This is supported by the evidence showing that fire suppression policies can increase fuel accumulation and incidentally increase wildfire severity. Adaptation to the emerging reality of longer fire seasons, increased fire occurrences, and increased fire intensity will likely include the recognition that current management policies will be insufficient in handling fire in the near future. Therefore, current landscape management policies should make a strategic shift towards adopting proactive planning strategies by means of developing preventative approaches to mitigate worsening wildfires (Stocks et al. 2002). At the ecological level, forest planning can integrate area-wide fuel modifications which are extensive applications of fuel treatments at the forest stand level that include reduction of fuel load and disruption of fire favoured habitats (Moreira et al. 2011). Such treatments refer to fuel type conversion which involves replacing highly flammable vegetation with low growing, less fire-prone species (Rigolot et al. 2009). Another viable option is the application of a fuel break strategy, which involves fragmenting large areas of fire-prone landscape with a network of less fire prone corridors (Moreira et al. 2011).

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2.3.3 Restoration Strategies for Wetland Habitats Affected by Storm Surges

The risk of flood disasters, attributed to sea-level rise and increased instances of hurricanes and associated storm surges, is increasing for many coastal areas around the world as a result of global climate changes. At the same time, current conventional coastal engineering solutions, including sea walls, dykes and embankments, are becoming increasingly challenged by environmental pressures and in some cases are no longer fulfilling their protective role towards coastlines (Temmerman et al. 2013). For example, Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005 after the levee system failed, Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 severely impacted the central Philippines (Temmerman et al. 2013). These, and similar low-lying coastal areas around the world, require better flood protection techniques. Ecosystem creation and restoration can provide protection from these storms by reducing storm surges and acting as buffers against intense hurricanes and typhoons. Recent climatic research indicates that major hurricanes, considered category 3 or higher on the universally used Saffir-Simpson scale, may intensify in response to warming sea surface temperatures associated with global

warming. This is demonstrated by a decline in number and percent of category 1 storms and an increase in category 4+5 storms (Figure 8) (Webster et al. 2005). Harper (2011) discuss the addition of a sixth category to the current SaffirSimpson category 1-5 scale to address storms outside this range of severity. What is even more concerning is the combination of expected sea level rise with increased coastal storms and subsequent
Figure 8: Intensity of hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson scale from categories 1 to 5. It is seen that for both number of intense hurricanes and percent of intense hurricanes, the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes is increasing. Category 1, 2 and 3 hurricanes appear to be decreasing (Webster et al. 2005)

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intensification of storm surges (Mousavi et al. 2011). The reality is that the coupled impact of storm intensification and sea level rise is projected to increase hurricane flood elevation by an average of 0.5m and 1.8m respectively, by the 2030s and 2080s (Mousavi et al. 2011). Therefore, in preparation for expected changes, coastal protection management needs to develop strategies that can withstand future storms. Conventional coastal engineering, such as the building of structures including sea walls and embankments, is widely accepted as the most appropriate solution for combating flood risks associated with coastal storms. However, these defenses are becoming increasingly recognized as unsustainable and unsuitable for keeping up with increasing flood risk. Furthermore, application of conventional coastal engineering often hinders the natural capacity of shorelines to respond to sea level rise, which ultimately leads to land subsidence as they compromise the longterm build-up of beaches and dunes (Temmerman et al. 2013). Recently, application of ecosystem-based-defense, which is directed on restoring the natural capacity of coastlines to handle intensification of storms with the goal being long-term sustainability, has intensified (Temmerman et al. 2013). The foundation of this concept is creation and restoration of ecosystems such as tidal marshes, mangroves, dunes and coral reefs to reduce storm surges and keep up with sea-level rise by natural accretion of sediments. Specifically, this approach can be successfully implemented in areas that have become increasingly urbanized along shorelines. Comparison between conventional coastal engineering and ecosystem-based-defence was completed to visually demonstrate the concepts behind each approach (Figure 9). For cities located in estuaries or deltas such as New Orleans, London and many large Asian cities in the low-lying areas of the continent (dark and pale green in Figure 10) restoring large tidal

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Figure 9. Visual representation of the differences between conventional coastal engineering (left) and ecosystem-based coastal defence (right). Blue arrows indicate an increase in intensity of storm waves and storm surges. The green arrows represent the wetland sedimentation stimulated by storm waves. (Temmerman et al. 2013)

Figure 10. Map showing the global need for coastal flood protection and large-scale examples. Potential application of ecosystem-based defence is also shown: dark green has the greatest potential, pale green has moderate potential, orange represents cities with minimal potential, blue are cities existing directly on coasts with the least potential (Temmerman et al. 2013)

marshes and mangroves along the coasts will provide many benefits (Temmerman et al. 2013). Not only will it provide extra water storage areas and friction, which mitigates the landward transgression of storm surges, it will provide added benefits associated with sustainability, which is discussed in the integration section. Studies have been completed on viability of this flood defense approach in areas around the world. For instance, Zhang et al. (2012) demonstrated, using field observations, how the 6-30 km-wide mangrove forest along the Gulf Coast of South 39 | P a g e

Florida effectively attenuated storm surges from the Category 3 hurricane Wilma and resulted in a surge amplitude decrease at a rate of 50cm/km across the forest. The results of this study show that, with no mangrove forest (black solid line), distributions of peak surge heights were well above those of areas where mangrove zones of varying widths were present (solid coloured lines which indicate width of mangrove zone) (Figure 11). This study provides evidence for the ability of coastlines, including mangroves for example, to buffer the impacts of waves, storm
Figure 11. The distributions of peak surge heights along four profiles across mangrove zones of varying widths (coloured lines). The black solid line represents surge amplitudes along a profile without mangrove effects (Zhang et al. 2012)

surges and tsunamis on coastal properties (Zhang et al. 2012). In a similar sense, a study performed by Wamsley et al. (2010) demonstrated the potential for wetlands to reduce surges based on observations in South-eastern Louisiana along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although there is significant variability in the ability of wetlands to successfully protect coastlines against storms, which is attributed to both key storm parameters and wetland properties, there is evidence that in general, wetlands do attenuate surges and therefore should be considered when developing comprehensive coastal protection plans (Wamsley et al. 2010).

2.3.4 Conservation Strategies for Marine Environments Affected by Warming

Habitats such as marine environments, specifically coral reefs, are susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change. Separate from the expected increases in storm intensity, sea level rise, freshwater influx, and ocean acidification (lowering of pH as oceans absorb increasing 40 | P a g e

levels of carbon dioxide), mass bleaching events are thought to have the greatest negative effect on corals and has increased over the past two decades (Keller et al. 2009). As the Earth warms, sea surface temperature increases along with ocean temperature in general which can result in coral bleaching. Along with the potential damages caused by climate change, human induced fragmentation of coral reef habitats undermine reef resilience and make them even more susceptible to future climate change. Clearly, the capacity of coral reef ecosystems to withstand future changes needs to be managed more actively in order to sustain these sensitive environments. This can be done by implementing networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) to improve coral reef resilience and sustain corals capacity to persist in changing conditions (Hughes et al. 2003). Resilience can be defined in several ways, but for marine environments it is a measure of a systems ability to sustain itself by absorbing perturbations, as caused by climate change for example, and continue to function successfully (Keller et al. 2009) Coral bleaching occurs when heat-stressed corals expel the pigmented microalgal eudosymbionts, called zooxanthellae, which terminates the symbiotic relationship between the two, ultimately leading to death of corals (Hughes et al, 2003). Bleached corals may recover their symbiotic populations of zooxanthellae in the weeks and months following the disturbance events if the conditions were mild and short-lived (Gibson et al. 2007). Recently, however, mortality of corals has reached 100% more often due to extended periods of stressful conditions lasting weeks. Repeated instances of these increased stressful periods due to recent ocean warming were not seen until 1979 (Gibson et al. 2007). Since then, hundreds to thousands of square kilometers of coral reef in almost every region of the world have been affected, with the most severe global episode of coral bleaching occurring in 1998 when 16% of the worlds corals died (Hughes et al. 2003). Although climate change has been determined as the major cause of

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mass coral bleaching events, mitigating its effects will not necessarily return the system to its former state, as climate change is not easily reversible. However, if appropriate conservation measures are properly implemented, coral reef resilience towards ocean warming can be improved. The preceding list of potential effects of climate change on oceans are considered boundary-less threats in the sense that they have the potential to continuously increase in severity regardless of what tactics humans adopt at this point to slow the effects of global climate change (Davis, 2013). Despite the inability of MPAs to protect against these disasters, they do serve as a significant and useful tool for conservation. For instance, (1) they provide unique protection for marine ecosystems and may therefore increase the resilience of these habitats to disturbances caused by climate change; (2) they help maintain the natural range of species (Notarbartolo di Sciara, 2007; Wells et al., 2008). Networks of MPAs also integrate biological connectivity by enabling adequate mixing of the gene pool to maintain natural genetic characteristics of the population, which may also lead to greater resiliency by facilitating evolution of favourable survival traits (Davis, 2013). Therefore, protection of biodiversity by maintaining the natural range of species and facilitating development of more resilient ecological functions is a major role of MPAs. There is a key relationship between resilience and biodiversity as they pertain to MPAs, which stems from the ecological functions that species, especially corals perform. Each species is capable of fulfilling a limited number of ecological functions, which accumulate as more species are added to the ecosystem, generating greater biodiversity (Keller et al. 2009). These diverse systems have been proven to re-establish ecological functions faster when they are impaired or lost to perturbations as a result of climate change, for instance (Davis 2013). MPAs can thus facilitate the maintenance of higher degrees of ecosystem resilience in areas where these

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functions are lost, by providing sufficient protected space and opportunities for these ecosystems to absorb climatic perturbations without facing further anthropogenic disturbances (e.g. Fishing). While MPA networks have immense potential for conserving marine biodiversity by improving ecosystem resilience, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies such as fisheries regulations and reductions of land-based pollution if they are to be at all effective in the near future given the current trends of climate change (Keller et al. 2009).

2.3.5 Future Directions

Future directions in sustainable management of future increases in wildfire occurrence should focus on assembling flexible management policies that can easily be adapted to situations on either ends of the severity scale for wildfires. Management of wildfires in peatland ecosystems as well as areas of permafrost will also become increasingly important. Severe fire activity in peatlands results in the combustion of deep peat layers which can occur for several months, releasing continuous greenhouse gases including methane and carbon dioxide (Flannigan et al. 2009). In the more northern habitats, permafrost can either hinder wildfires or increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to burning (Flannigan et al. 2009). Future research should be geared towards identifying which ecosystems these are in order to develop management strategies for those which are at greatest risk of experiencing negative impacts of climate change enhanced wildfires. Application of ecosystem-based defense has increased in recent years, as it is recognized as a cost effective and sustainable solution. However large-scale implementation of wetland restoration for food defense is still very limited despite the extreme potential for this method to reduce effects of flooding associated with rising sea levels and storm intensification. Current findings on the numerous benefits of ecosystem-based defense demonstrate the potential for 43 | P a g e

widespread implementation of this approach and should further stimulate joint research by ecologists and engineers (Temmerman et al. 2013). Future research should be geared towards identifying the potential for wider implementation of ecosystem-based defense over larger areas in order to motivate governments and industries to adopt such restoration techniques. Marine protected areas have the potential for being effective conservation tools humans can implement to improve ecosystem resilience against climate change-induced stressors, for example corals and mass bleaching events. However, spread of disease and the threat of invasive species is also a reality of these systems that needs to be addressed in future research. Unfortunately, the same characteristics that make invasive species successful r-strategists, or invaders, may also make them already adapted to ocean warming which could therefore facilitate expansion of these species throughout MPAs (Keller et al. 2009). Similarly, pathogens and diseases are likely to respond positively to the warmer ocean temperatures associated with climate change. Often, these negative side effects of networks of MPAs spread rapidly due to the lack of dispersal barriers and eventually compromise the resiliency of species and consequently, the entire ecosystem (Keller et al. 2009). Future research therefore, should focus on identifying ways in which these biotic stressors can be reduced or controlled either by minimizing pollution and overfishing, or by developing strategies to combat these issues. Also, due to the uncertainties and difficulties associated with managing marine systems, such as expensive data collection, inability to observe communities directly, and vast areas covered by these expansive habitats, the importance of more research is essential for the future. Pursuing more detailed understanding of these systems should therefore be the goal.

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3. Integration

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Integration with:

From the Ground Up

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3.1 Agricultural Implications of a Warming Climate 3.1.1 Impacts of Agriculture on Global Warming
Following the Green Revolution in the 1900s, agricultural intensity has increased in many countries. This has contributed to the anthropogenically-induced global warming in many ways. When land is cleared to make way for crops and livestock, trees are cut down and soil is exposed. This results in an increase in carbon dioxide emissions both directly through the decay of organic material, which previously sequestered carbon dioxide. In addition, agriculture increases the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere via direct emissions. Next to transportation, agriculture is the leading industry in fossil fuel consumption (Hosking, 2009). The transportation of crops, livestock, pesticides, fertilizers etc. to different locations, as well as the manufacture of such pesticides and fertilizers, contributes to these emissions. Another important greenhouse gas is nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is a by-product of different microbial processes within the soil that are referred to as denitrification and nitrification (Cornell et al. 2012). The application of industrial nitrogen-based fertilizer will increase the nitrous oxide emissions to the atmosphere (ABARES, n.d.). Park et al. (2012) have found a way to determine where particular nitrous oxide emissions have originated. This allows for the monitoring of different countries nitrous oxide emissions resulting from nitrogen-based fertilizer. Many proposals to reduce nitrous oxide emissions have been made. Reduction efforts may include minimizing the fertilizer applied before anticipated rainfall because of the fact that moisture increases microbial activity and, as a result, nitrous oxide emissions (Park et al. 2012). Natural fertilizers, such as legume crops (e.g. alfalfa and clover) (ABARES, n.d.), could be used versus synthetic fertilizers. Legumes have symbioses with nitrogen-fixing bacteria and phosphorus-acquiring fungi (Scheublin et al. 2004). It has been suggested that alternating sugar cane and soybeans (a legume) between growing 47 | P a g e

seasons reduces the need for synthetic fertilizer (ABARES, n.d.). In addition, cover crops could be planted to take up excess nitrogen following removal of crops (ABARES, n.d.). Lastly, enhanced efficiency fertilizer (EEF) could work to decrease the rate at which nitrous oxide is produced by adding different compounds that inhibit its synthesis (ABARES, n.d.). Methane is another greenhouse gas, which is 21 times as potent as carbon dioxide (Boadi et al. 2004). Methane is formed in the digestive tract of cattle by microbial processes and is eventually released to the atmosphere (Boadi et al. 2004). Boadi et al. (2004) explain how feeding cattle grain-based diets vs. roughage-based diets will both increase their productivity and decrease their methane emissions. However, the increase in nitrogen fertilizer that is essential for growing the food grain will contribute to both nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions (Boadi et al. 2004). Therefore, the overall greenhouse gas emissions impact must be evaluated. Currently, livestock production accounts for 42% of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (Boadi et al. 2004). These are some of many ways that the agricultural industry contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and therefore to global warming.

3.1.2 Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture

These emissions will cause a subsequent warming due to the greenhouse effect, which in turn negatively impacts the agricultural industry. For example, as stated previously, global warming will result in changes in the ranges of different species. Currently, there is more evidence for an increase in range due to climate warming than a decrease (Dawson et al. 2011). This applies to many different pests, including the soybean aphid, which is native to Asia (Heimpel et al. 2013). This aphid has become one of the biggest soybean pests in North America (Heimpel et al. 2013). It is estimated that the manufacture, transport, and application of insecticides against soybean aphid results in approximately 10.6 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent 48 | P a g e

greenhouse gasses being emitted per hectare of soybeans treated (Heimpel et al. 2013). The spread of crop pests will result in a positive feedback to climate warming. Different control methods are being investigated such as crop-resistance as well as importing biological control agents from Asia. Heimpel et al. (2013) found that if a pesticide threshold was implemented in coalition with using biological control agents, the GHG emissions could be reduced by about 207 million kg of carbon dioxide equivalent gasses per year. There are many agricultural implications of a warming climate and as a result our food system is at risk. As shown with wild populations, crops will also experience a decrease in available suitable habitat. Increasing temperatures have been shown to negatively correlate with crop yields. A study by Tao et al. (2006) shows an increase in rice sterility with an increase in the maximum temperature (Figure 12a) and a decrease in maize yields with a decrease in diurnal temperature range, which results with greater night-time temperatures (Figure 12b). These studies were both done in research stations in China. It is speculated by Tao et al. (2006) that higher temperatures will increase the rate of phenological development to the extent that yields are negatively impacted. In contrast, crop yields are benefiting from the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (Tao et al. 2006). As carbon dioxide is a necessary component of

photosynthesis, which is required for plant growth, an increase in this gas will result in what is often referred to as carbon dioxide fertilization. Further research is necessary to elucidate the overall impact of higher carbon dioxide levels and higher temperatures on crop yield. Under our integration with Team Biotech we will be discussing ways in which we can aid in the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these crops in a changing climate.

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a)

b)

Figure 12. a) Relationship between rice spikelet sterility and the mean maximum temperature during the 20 days before and after anthesis. b) Relationship between maize yield and mean diurnal temperature in summer (Tao et al. 2006).

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Integration with:

Youre Infected

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3.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health 3.2.1 Disease Vectors

Climate Change is having a large impact on human health all over the globe. One of the specific instances of this impact is the increasing prevalence of Lyme disease in Canada. Lyme disease is transferred to humans through the bite of an infected deer tick. The specific bacterium that causes this disease is Borrelia burgdorferi (Chief Medical Officer of Health, 2010). When a tick inserts its head into the host skin it will start to feed on the blood of the host. Through this attachment, it is able to pass on the Lyme disease bacteria after feeding for a minimum of 24 hours (Chief Medical Officer of Health, 2010). Ticks live in the dead leaves that cover the forest floor and any other ground coverage (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). When they are young, they feed on mice and other forest animals, which is where they contract the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. In the past, most of the deer ticks would die in the winter months since they are not able to survive in conditions lower than 4C (Chief Medical Officer of Health, 2010). However, due to climate change, there are now more ticks surviving the winter months and into the following spring than before. In addition to this, songbirds returning from their wintering grounds in the south bring more ticks every year into Canada (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). Although ticks are only able to travel a few meters per year due to their size, they are expanding at a rate of nearly 46-50km per year northward (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). This is due to the help that they are receiving from both songbirds and the White-Footed mouse. The White-Footed mouse is known for carrying the Lyme disease bacteria. As climate change expands their range, it is also leading to a correlated increase with the deer tick (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). The current trajectory of this species is expanding 10 kilometers per year northward and it is expected, by the year 2050, the White52 | P a g e

footed mouse will populate nearly the entire province of Quebec (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). This means that the deer ticks, as well, will populate the whole of Quebec. The expansion of the deer tick in Canada has been quite rapid. In 1989, the only established deer tick population was in the Long Point region of southern Ontario (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). However in 2002 deer ticks were being observed all over the country. They started appearing in the Maritimes followed by Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and even British Columbia (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). Their ability to colonize any environment suitable for their biology has helped them to expand at such a rapid rate (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). Currently their expansion is taking them through the most densely populated areas of Canada and by 2020 it is predicted that 80% of Canadians will be exposed to deer ticks (Bradford & Hunka, 2013). This greatly increases the risk for Canadians to contract Lyme disease. Therefore, due to climate change, the Canadian population is facing a new health threat as a direct result of climate change.

3.2.2 Heat Waves

Due to climate change and the warming planet, heat waves have been steadily rising in the past decades. Heat waves are of biggest concern to the elderly and younger population, whom are most susceptible to the negative effects of extreme temperatures. This is generally caused by elderly people having pre-existing medical conditions that put them at higher risk. Also, elderly people are generally considered to be less able to moderate their internal temperature, which further increases their risk of death from heat waves (McMichael et al. 2006). An example of the disastrous effects that heat waves can have on human health came in August 2003 in France when 14,802 people died in a heat wave (Haines et al. 2006). During heat waves, the most severely affected places are city centers due to urban heat island effects (Haines et al.

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2006). Heat islands in city centers cause the centers of cities to be warmer than the surrounding regions and this is why the effects are larger in city centers (Haines et al. 2006).

3.2.3 Natural Disasters

With the increasing prevalence of climate change, there is a correlated increase in climate related natural disasters. These natural disasters often have a direct effect on the health of humans living in the areas affected. These effects are further increased in third world countries where their infrastructure is not properly designed and therefore, are not capable of appropriately dealing with the natural disasters. The disasters that have the most impact on human health are floods and hurricanes.

3.2.3.1 Floods
Floods are impacting humans by not only physically destroying cities and home, but also adversely affecting human health. These impacts can be both short- and long-term. Short-term health impacts are generally in the form of physical injuries sustained from flood debris or death (Haines et al. 2006). Long-term health effects sustained from flooding often include mental health issues that result from the actual flooding event (Haines et al. 2006). Here, the focus will be on the short term health effects that people suffer from flood events. An example of a flood event that significantly impacted human health was in 2002 in Dresden, Germany. This flood left people without electricity and clean drinking water for nearly a week (Haines et al. 2006). After flood events there is an increase in reported diarrhea and respiratory illnesses (Haines et al. 2006). Although this is a concern in developed countries, the effects in third world countries are more severe. In these countries, access to proper medical treatments for the health concern is usually lacking. Thus, the mortality rate from floods is increased due to decreased access to
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proper healthcare (Haines et al. 2006). Contrary to this, in countries that have increased access to healthcare like those in North America and Europe these common illnesses rarely result in death during flooding events. Thus the set-up of a countries medical system prior to a flooding event will greatly affect the human health toll after the event has occurred.

3.2.3.2 Hurricanes
Hurricanes are very publicized and talked about events in the media, mainly due to the great impact on the health of people affected by them. One of the most famous is hurricane Katrinam, which impacted the United States on August 29, 2005. This hurricane in particular had drastic effects on infrastructure in the areas that it decimated. The increased water levels created breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and led to increased mould levels and decreased availability of drinking water (Frank, 2013). Due to the increase in habitat for mosquitoes, outbreaks of West Nile virus became a large concern for human health in the New Orleans area (Frank, 2013). In other areas of the world, these increases in mosquito breeding grounds could cause increases in even more severe diseases such as Malaria. Thus, due to a hurricanes ability to severely destroy infrastructure, they pose large threats to human life and human health. With climate related natural disasters expected to increase in the future, these effects on human health are likely to increase.

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Integration with:

Waste Not Want Not

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3.3 Effect of Floods on the Spread of Contaminants

As discussed, an increase in rainfall intensity has been predicted as a result of climate change (Schiermeier, 2011). This increase in rainfall has led to increased flooding in many regions of the world. In particular, mountainous areas, which are inhabited by nearly a billion people worldwide and cover one quarter of the Earths land surface, are at increased risk (Allamano et al. 2009). Since water runs downhill in many of these mountainous landscapes, people living in these areas are at an increased risk for flooding due to pooling of water in the low-lying valleys (Allamano et al. 2009). In some areas of the world, it is predicted that an increase in greenhouse gases will also cause an increase monsoon precipitation (Monirul Qader Mirza, 2002). With a larger flood volume, bodies of water may experience overflow, and it may take extended periods of time before the water is able to return to safe levels (Monirul Qader Mirza, 2002). Elevated levels of water for extended periods of time pose a threat to the safety of humans. Due to improper disposal, many sources of water that enter water treatment plants contain a variety of pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics and steroids (Nikolaou et al. 2007). Flooding may have a negative effect on this issue. When there is an increase in the amount of rainfall, the levels of water in the sewer system and treatment plants may exceed their capacity (Rose et al. 2001). When the capacity of the sewer system is exceeded, these chemically contaminated waters are discharged into the surface water bodies nearby (Rose et al. 2001). Chemicals in the floodwaters can now be spread to other sources, such as nearby rivers and lakes (Nikolaou et al. 2007). In Southern Ontario, a study examined the waters of seven tributaries that received input from agricultural lands (Nikolaou et al. 2007). In all seven tributaries, pharmaceutical waste was detected. This shows that the spread of chemicals through the water can be transported into
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agricultural lands, potentially even causing the chemicals to be taken up by the plants and enter food sources. Varying weather systems can also have an impact on the quality of water (Rose et al. 2001). Storms have the ability to increase the transport of chemicals from the original source to other locations (Rose et al. 2001). This demonstrates that with the predicted increase in extreme weather events, there is also an increase in the potential for spread of contaminated water.

3.3.1 Future Directions

Moving forward, in an effort to decrease the effects and spread of contaminated water throughout ecosystems, public education is extremely important. In increasing the awareness of the general public to the effects of improper disposal to an ecosystem, the amount of pollution into water sources could effectively be reduced. As well, in order to prevent the spread of contaminants in the water system, better methods for dealing with increased rainfall and extracting chemicals from the water will need to be examined. For example, the separation of storm water sewer systems and household water sanitation sewer systems could reduce the occurrence of system overflows, which often involves the spread of polluted water into surface water bodies. Increasing the effectiveness of water treatment plants will also be a necessity in the future in preventing the spread of chemicals and other pollutants through water sources.

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Integration with:

Team Getting There

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3.4 The Relationship between Climate Change and Poverty 3.4.1 Increased Carbon Emissions
Climate change, as well as the resulting increase in natural disasters, integrates well with poverty. It is predicted that a greater portion of greenhouse emissions will come from

developing countries compared to more developed countries (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). The levels of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from both developed (OECD) and developing (Non-OECD)

nations are projected to increase (Figure 13) (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). It is predicted that if no new policies limiting emission of greenhouse gases are established, by 2040, emissions will have increased from 31.2 billion metric tons in 2010 to 45.5 billion metric tons in 2040 (U.S.
Figure 123. The projected levels of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from both developed (OECD) and developing (NonOECD) nations (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013)

Energy Information Administration, 2013). Within this model, 69% of projected emissions will be from developing nations (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). On a global level, this demonstrates the role that less wealthy countries will play in future climate change. Contributions of developing countries to emissions will be increasing largely due to a growing population size and will likely meet their growing populations energy demands with fossil fuels (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013). Overall, global population is expected to

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increase; most predictions estimating that population will reach 9.2 billion by 2050 (Bryan et al. 2009). The greatest surges in population will be experienced in developing countries. For example, by 2050, the populations of both Rwanda and Uganda are expected to double (Bryan et al. 2009). This increase in population size will account for a majority of the growing emissions from these countries.

3.4.2 Unsustainable Livelihood and Climate Warming

As a result of the desperate conditions that many developing countries face, they often resort to extracting natural resources in unsustainable ways. For example, in Indonesia, palm oil plantations are a major cause of deforestation and peatland clearing. This has implications for carbon sequestration, and contributes to global warming. Both deforestation and peatland

clearing result in large amounts of carbon dioxide being emitted to the atmosphere that would otherwise have been sequestered in this biomass. Peatlands in Indonesia sequester a significant amount of carbon; it is estimated that they store 37.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (MacKinnon, 2009). Although attempts to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) are increasing, it is still more profitable to clear land to be used for palm oil plantations ($3,835 - $9,630 per hectare) than to preserve it for carbon credits ($614$994 per hectare) (Butler et al. 2009). Indonesia is the worlds leading palm oil producer and in 2008, generated about 7.64 billion Euros (MacKinnon, 2009). In 2007, Indonesia banned the use of peat lands for palm oil plantations. However, they have slowly removed this policy (MacKinnon, 2009).

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3.4.3 Unsustainable Livelihoods Increases Risks

In addition to the increased carbon emissions, these unsustainable livelihoods also have implications for mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. For example, deforestation can influence flood control following storm surges. As mentioned previously, forests are cleared for palm oil plantations in Indonesia. Bradshaw et al. (2007) found that a decrease in natural forest cover of 10% was predicted to increase the occurrence of floods by 4-28% and the duration of floods by 4-8%. This demonstrates how deforestation lowers the resilience of an ecosystem to flooding events, which are likely to increase in a warming climate. Therefore, deforestation could result in increased flood damages and further contribute to the impoverished conditions faced by these countries. Another example can be seen with the cutting of mangrove forests in various countries. As discussed in the synthesis, mangroves act as a natural defence against hurricanes, reducing the effect of wave action and storm surges (Van Lavieren et al. 2012). In certain areas, where poverty is rampant, there is a high dependence of local communities on the mangrove forests specifically for firewood, due to a lack of alternatives (Badola et al. 2012). In 2009, a cyclone struck the coast on India and it was estimated that mangroves significantly reduced the number of deaths by an average of 1.72 lives per village within 10 km of coastal areas (Vincent & Das, 2009). In the recently created Bhitarkanika Conservation Area in India, it was found that, while people did understand and appreciate the storm protection provided to them by the mangroves, 18% felt that their rights had been violated from the creation of the conservation area, in which mangroves were now protected. About 12% of people living within 3km of the forests said that they would pilfer from the forest (Badola et al. 2012).

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In developing countries, individuals face challenges that pose more of an immediate concern than climate change or the threat of increasing natural disasters, such as surviving in harsh living conditions. This can result in less concern for the environment and in turn can result in greater damage following natural disasters. This has a positive feedback loop that increases the poverty of these countries.

3.4.4 Increased Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

Not only does poverty often lead to a greater amount of environmental degradation and climate change (Samal et al. 2003), the results of these changes can also often have larger impacts within these countries and communities than in their wealthier counterparts (IPCC, 2012). Developing nations are often less financially-equipped to adopt the appropriate measures to respond and adapt to changes in climate and extreme weather events (IPCC, 2012). This can be demonstrated by the fact that between the years of 19702008, 95% of natural disaster-caused deaths occurred in developing countries (IPCC, 2012).

3.4.5 Future Directions

A complicated relationship exists between poverty and climate change. Although developing countries are predicted to be the hardest hit by climate change, they are the least able to respond due to limited resources and the desperate conditions they face. For example, although high carbon dioxide emissions are resulting from deforestation, Indonesia is faced with the impossible decision of supporting current generations or protecting future ones. It is

therefore important that countries with more resources step up and provide the support needed so that the implementation of laws, such as those protecting peatland, can become a viable option for these countries. Education should also be considered as a potential solution for mitigating
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poverty to ensure that the efforts put forth by other countries are sustained over time and into the future. All members of society in each country should have the same opportunities and strive for a sustainable future.

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Integration with:

Team Biotech

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3.5 Climate Change and Drought Resistant Crops 3.5.1 Climate Change-Mediated Crop Yield Loss and Future Food Security
The topic of climate change can be integrated well with biotechnology when looking at the challenge of producing enough food globally to feed a growing population. As mentioned, it is estimated that by 2050, the human population will reach 9.2 billion by 2050 (Bryan et al. 2009). To produce enough food to meet global demands, crops around the world have already been adapted to produce greater yields and to withstand stresses such as heat, drought, and salinity (Mittler & Blumwald, 2010). Although these adaptations have been successful in the past, the projected effects of climate change in the future reveal that crops in many areas will face increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns (Parry et al. 2004). These changes will result in longer and more frequent periods of drought, which, as mentioned previously, can greatly reduce crop yields.

3.5.2 Possible Climate Change Outcomes Due To Human Activity

To understand the importance of crop adaptation to climate change, simulations of global, long-term climate change and human activity towards these changes on crop yields can be used to estimate global crop production. In terms of human activity towards changing crop yields, simulations are developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Parry et al. 2004). The SRES uses potential human activity towards future climate changes to determine how rapidly these changes will occur. For example, one scenario outlines a world where humanity remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels and nations do not share technological advances. In this case, climate changes will occur rapidly and as a result, developing regions such as Africa and parts of Asia will experience greater crop
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yield loss when compared to a scenario of a more integrated and sustainable world (Parry et al. 2004). Since humans are largely responsible for recent climate change, the SRES is useful as each possible outcome presents different conditions, which can be prepared for depending on future global emission patterns. Though simulations take into account benefits of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to the growth of some crops and farmer mediated adaptation strategies, simulations cannot account for all possibilities (Parry et al. 2004). Most notably, the possible outcomes of initiatives towards reducing climate change such as the Kyoto Protocol are not considered in the SRES (Solomon et al. 2007).

3.5.3 Global Food Security and Areas of Need

In the Northern hemisphere it has been estimated that by 2050, temperatures will have risen by 2-3C (Mittler & Blumwald, 2010). Additionally, it is understood that areas of high salinity and aridity face the most risk of crop yield loss in the future. In these areas, the typically low availability of water and proper farming practices means these regions require the most attention as they are at the greatest risk of hunger. Simulations of climate change scenarios predict that developing regions such as Africa and parts of Asia may face up to 30% in crop yield loss due to climate change by 2080 (Parry et al. 2004). Though many developing regions do not possess much of the technological sophistication, which allows for the mass production of crops as in developed countries, a major bottleneck in countries such as Africa is the unavailability of fresh water. Recently, it has been estimated that 92% of fresh water used annually is used for agricultural practices (Hoekstra & Mekonnen, 2012). In developing regions such as Africa, much of the fresh water available must be used for drinking water. Additionally, simulations show that many developing regions at risk for hunger are those found in arid or semi-arid environments
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(Parry et al. 2004). As climate change continues, arid landscapes will become more common in many developing regions. In contrast, developed regions such as North America are expected to experience improved crop yields as increases in precipitation in these areas will offset increases in temperature (Parry et al. 2004). However, although crop yields are expected to increase somewhat in developed regions, it is believed that the decreases in crop yields in developing countries will almost equal those gained (Parry et al. 2004). As a result, developing countries will need to depend more greatly on trading with developed countries to feed their populations unless crop varieties that improve drought-tolerance are developed and made available to countries at risk of hunger. Furthermore, improvements in drought-tolerance and water-use efficiency in crops can be beneficial globally. In North America alone, up to 40% of annual maize yield loss is due to drought (Castiglioni et al. 2008). Therefore, improved drought-tolerance and water use efficiency in crops should be strived for to allow developing regions to continue to produce their own crops and to retain or improve crop yields globally.

3.5.4 Improving Drought-Tolerance by Breeding and Genetic Modification

Presently, crop varieties can be produced through breeding programs and genetically modified (GM) crops. When using breeding to achieve a new crop variety, crops are artificially selected and crossbred, selecting for traits that improve growth and crop yield (Mitra, 2001). Breeding programs have been used extensively in the past on many crops and are the more conventional method for producing new crop varieties. GM crops can use genes from other organisms to produce crop varieties targeted towards reducing the negative effect of a specific factor in the environment on crop yields. Examples of GM crops developed in the past include pest-resistant and herbicide-resistant crop varieties. Bt cotton is a variety of pest-resistant cotton

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that has been genetically modified to produce its own insecticide without harming the growth of the crop (Qaim & Zilberman, 2003).

3.5.5 Potential Risks of Genetic Modification

The use of GM crops is much more controversial than breeding programs as the genes added to GM crops may cause pleiotropic effects which can result in negative outcomes in a number of ways. For example, GM crops can be detrimental to wild plants if GM crop seeds enter local ecosystems as these may out-compete local plants or the transgene may begin to be expressed in other organisms (Craig et al. 2008). In addition, GM crops may pose a risk to those who ingest them as a pleiotropic effect of a particular gene may result in unintended negative health outcomes (Craig et al. 2008). Since GM crops pose a potential risk both locally and to the target consumer, GM crop varieties require extensive testing to ensure that added genes do not possess any negative pleiotropic effects. Another factor that must be taken into account is whether the addition of the transgene has any negative influence on crop yield. Though a transgene may reduce the negative impacts of a particular environmental stressor, the metabolic activity required to express the transgene may be sufficient to reduce crop yields.

3.5.6 Present Genetically Modified Drought-Tolerance and Future Interests

With an understanding of the risks of GM crops, it is apparent that much testing is required before making these crops commercially available. In 2013, Monsanto made available a genetically modified variety of maize designed to increase drought-tolerance. The mechanism behind improving drought-tolerance in this strain is through the expression of a bacterial cold shock protein, which decreases water absorption in dry conditions (Eisenstein, 2013). Though this does not improve the crops water use efficiency, decreasing the water absorption rate is
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believed to allow for more crops to survive until water becomes available through precipitation or from aquifers (Eisenstein, 2013). An early report states that this crop variety does not significantly out-perform drought-tolerant crop varieties achieved through breeding (Eisenstein, 2013). Although this may be the case, this GM drought-tolerant maize variety is the first of its kind to be made commercially available. Due to the complexity of plant physiology, improving drought-tolerance will likely require multiple transgenes as many factors can influence water absorption, water retention and water use in plants. For example, roots are used for water absorption and show a great amount of plasticity dependent on the presence of water and nutrients in the soil (Bengough et al. 2006). As a result, there is an interest in finding genes that improve root length without sacrificing root architectural efficiency (Tuberosa & Salvi, 2006). Another factor that is of interest is the improvement of transpiration efficiency in crops. Transpiration efficiency is the ratio between carbon fixation and water lost through evaporation (Masle et al. 2005). The leaves of plants possess small pores known as stomata which control gas exchange, allowing carbon dioxide to enter through the leaves (Condon et al. 2002). However, the opening of these pores allows water vapour to escape, which can have negative effects on crop yields in water-starved regions. Therefore, to improve transpiration efficiency in crops, genes that control stomatal structure and functioning are of most interest to researchers (Masle et
al. 2005; Condon et al. 2002).

3.5.7 Conclusions and Future Directions

Though these examples provide a few ways of improving drought-tolerance in crops, the implementation of any single GM gene in a commercially available crop requires extensive research and testing to ensure its safety to the local environment and its target consumer. As a result, improvements to drought-tolerance through the development of GM crops are likely to
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progress slowly. However, ongoing research on both breeding programs and GM crop development should continue as both lines of research have the potential of producing improved crop yields in the face of drought. Looking forward, improved drought-tolerance in crops achieved through breeding or genetic modification is necessary to retain crop yields in future years. However, drought conditions are already prevalent in developing regions such as Africa, areas already at the greatest risk of hunger (Thornton et al. 2009). To aid these areas presently, initiatives such as the Water Efficient Maize for Africa (WEMA) project can be beneficial by both improving crop yields and raising awareness of the negative consequences of climate change on crops (Monsanto, 2014). The WEMA project aims to improve crop yields in Africa by producing and making available GM drought- and insect-tolerant maize varieties. As research continues and new varieties of drought-tolerant crops are developed through breeding or genetic modification, the implementation of these varieties in areas at risk of hunger will be beneficial for reducing the impact of climate change on crop yields.

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Integration with:

Sustainable Squirrels

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3.6 Sustainable Solutions to Anthropogenic Changes and Climate Change 3.6.1 Introduction
Climate change as a result of human activities has been a reoccurring concept throughout this report. It is clear there is no viable solution to reverse the effects of climate change and therefore disaster planning is a necessary step towards developing sustainable solutions to climate change-induced natural disasters. This is not intended to emphasize that disaster planning is more important than reducing the sources of anthropogenic landscape alterations (i.e. pollution, carbon dioxide emissions, ecosystem degradation etc.). However, the reality of

climate change and the unlikelihood of current rates being reduced in the near future have raised the concern of coping with the current conditions and preparing for expected changes whilst continuing to try and slow rates of climate change. This idea of humans adopting ecologicalbased disaster management strategies can be integrated with the group Sustainable Squirrels. There are examples of sustainable solutions to current anthropogenic landscape alterations, which are in fact worsening the effects of already enhanced natural disasters as an indirect result of climate change. Though disasters may be natural in origin, the way in which societies have developed has led them to become more severe, for instance uncontrolled urbanization and a lack of proper water management strategies.

3.6.2 Adaptive Water Management to Mitigate Direct Climate Change Effects

Direct effects of climate change on environments include any instances where the effects of global warming are immediately experienced by habitats, for example, temperature. As was discussed above, the ways in which species respond to these changes varies, and depend on the species capability to migrate, adapt, adopt phenotypic plasticity. Although considered a part of
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nature, humans can withstand much more variable conditions and have a higher tolerance for extreme temperature conditions. However, unlike most species in nature, which change their own behaviours or ecological ranges to survive effects of climate change, humans opt to change the environment around them and exploit resources such as water to cope with global warming. This exploitation of natural resources is arguably worsened by the current trend of uncontrolled urbanization and fast industrialization in developing and threshold countries (Pahl-Wostl, et al. 2007). These anthropogenic landscape alterations are developing unsustainably. Therefore, water management is facing major challenges to increasing pressures as a result of climate change as well as by fast changing developing societies. Although technologies and knowledge in general is available for alleviating pressures on water as a resource, the implementation into practical actions is slow (Pahl-Wostl, 2007). If properly conducted, however, adaptive water management can be a successful sustainable solution for current water use in developing countries experiencing fast changing socio-economic conditions and climate change (Pahl-Wostl, et al. 2005). Adaptive water management is based on the idea that the unpredictability of climate change and population urbanization limits current water management strategies, which only operate in a static manner (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2005). Hence, management must be adaptive and dynamic to effectively sustain water resources around the world. There are several components to adaptive water management, which is often represented in a PSIR (Pressure-state-impactresponse) framework (Figure 14). A key step in the adaptive approach involves increasing the ability of the entire water system including water as a resource, technologies, and humans to function sustainably under a wider range of environmental variation caused by climate change (Pahl-Wostl, 2007). This involves addressing not only the involvement of governance, but also
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social issues in terms of the peoples perception of proper water use. If needed, subsequent learning strategies can help those countries that lack knowledge on such systems to
Figure 14. The different components of adaptive management represented in an extended PSIR (Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework (PahlWostl, 2007)

understand the importance of water management. Sustainable management

thus implies that the pillars of social equity, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability are considered when integrating water management regimes (Pahl-Wostl, 2007). This will allow for the successful implementation of sustainable water management in times of expected changes due to climate change and urbanization.

3.6.3 Strategies to Manage Indirect Effects of Climate Change

The direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise) on humans are less noticeable due to the highly adaptable nature of humans and tolerance for changing conditions. Climate change becomes much more noticeable when it causes fatal natural disasters and thus catches the attention of the world. However, the reality is that although climate change is often to blame for worsening disasters, often times anthropogenic landscape alteration such as clear-cutting, construction of protective sea walls, and hydroelectric dams are the initiating factors which induce climate change enhanced natural disasters including wildfires and landslides, flooding, and earthquakes.

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3.6.3.1 Clear Cutting in Relation to Wildfires and Landslides 3.6.3.1.1 Wildfires Caused by Clear Cutting, Enhanced by Climate Change
A common anthropogenic landscape alteration is clear cutting, a forestry practice where all trees in an area are uniformly cut down to the ground, leaving behind barren and exposed landscapes. Attempts to replant the forests after wildfires lead to monocultures, which facilitate the spread of larger and more severe wildfires (Flannigan et al. 2006). In other words, as demonstrated by Franklin and Forman (1987), as the percent area of clear-cut forest increases, the landscapes susceptibility to wildfire increases (Figure 15). It can also increase the susceptibility of forest patch to ignition, especially along the forest edge (Figure 16). As
Figure 15. Susceptibility of forests to wildfires as a result of damages caused by clear cutting (Franklin & Forman, 1987).

an example, Flannigan et al. (2006) used historical relationships between weather/fire danger and area burned in tandem with two GCMs to estimate future area burned in Canada. The results (Table 3), obtained by Flannigan et
al. (2009), are as follows: results

suggest an increase of 74118% in area burned by the end of this. Since temperature is the most important predictor of area burned in Canada, warmer temperatures
Figure 16. Fire risk compared to time since landscape was first clear-cut. The landscape was differentiated between ignition points and forest edges (Lindenmayer et al. 2009).

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are likely to be associated with increased area burned (Flannigan et al. 2006). Therefore, since climate change is likely to drive substantial changes in fire regimes and
Table 2. Summary of main findings on landscape-wildfire interactions in Mediterranean Europe to address and proposed policy and landscape management responses (Moreira et al. 2011)

industrial logging has the capability to change fire proneness, then interactions between logging and climate change could lead to cumulative negative impacts of wildfires (Lindenmayer et al. 2009). Furthermore, the likelihood of suppressing these worsening fires is very low and so landscape management strategies should focus on preparation and prevention as opposed to suppression. A sustainable measure humans can apply to help ecosystems already experiencing the effects of climate change enhanced wildfires involves diversifying the reforestation regimes to prevent the ignition and spread of wildfires. Moreira et al. (2011) summarized the changes to
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landscape management strategies in preparation of expected increases in wildfires. For instance, to prevent homogenization of landscapes after clear cutting has occurred, which results in regrowth of fire-prone shrubs, the goal would be to increase landscape heterogeneity by planning land covers with alternate higher and lower fire hazard, different stand age, and less vulnerable plant species which would reduce the probability of fires. Furthermore, as the frequency of large fires increases, the goal would be to invest more in prevention (fuel management) rather than suppression policies because the size of fires and severity are likely to become harder to control under extreme fire weather conditions.

3.6.3.1.2 Landslides Caused by Clear Cutting, Enhanced by Climate Change

Increase in landslides has also been attributed to clear-cutting practices. As trees are removed, landscapes are left open and exposed to greater amounts of precipitation, which would otherwise be intercepted by forest canopy. In turn, landslides frequently occur as there is no protection from precipitation and the tree roots left behind after clear cutting are not capable of holding the landscape together since they are dead and decaying. Therefore, to cope with increasing landslides as a result of clear cutting, management strategies should focus on reducing the size of clear cuts as well as emphasize slope stabilization. Slope stabilization can involve construction of barrier structure to hold the landscape together which often becomes quite costly and unsustainable as they require constant maintenance. A more sustainable solution involves a similar approach to dealing with wildfires, diversification. Stokes (2007) revealed the importance of plant diversity at the level of root systems, functional groups, and stand age, and of planting and harvesting practices to manage land sliding in human-influenced ecosystems (Restrepo et al. 2009). The reason for this being that soil cohesion is attributed to root strength, which will decrease as roots, dies and decay after clear-cutting has occurred. Therefore, reforestation should
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focus on diversification at the root level specifically to ensure plants that are able to penetrate the soil to hold it together are included.

3.6.3.2 Sustainability of Coastal Protection and Alternate Strategies

As was previously mentioned, natural disasters are simply hazards that have become disasters due to the way societies have developed and are affected. This concept applies to the construction of sea walls and embankments to protect coastlines from storm surges and flooding as a result of hurricanes. Flooding is only considered a natural disaster when these structures fail to protect the densely populated cities scattered along coastlines, which are, then subject to severe damages, significant economic losses, and countless fatalities (OBrien et al. 2006). Conventional engineering solutions are not only facing environmental challenges from hurricanes, they are also challenged by raised maintenance costs. For example, in preparation for increasing flood risks, improvements to the Dutch Flood defence system are expected to cost up to $2.4 billion per year by 2050 which is minimal compared to the potential cost of damages which could amount to $5,600 billion (Temmerman et al. 2013). The economic drawbacks are matched by equally concerning ecological drawbacks including the erosion of tidal habitats and land subsidence (Temmerman et al. 2013). In other words, sea walls and embankments are clearly unsustainable anthropogenic landscape alterations. As discussed previously in answering the third question of this project, integrating an ecosystem-based defence to costal protection strategies is a sustainable and cost effective solution. It emphasizes remediated estuaries and wetlands to restore the natural capacity of these costal systems to reduce storm surges. Remediated wetlands and estuaries not only protect coastlines, they also have several additional benefits including improved water quality, carbon sequestration, facilitate establishment of new fisheries, and habitat conservation, all of which
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increase the economic value of these systems (Temmerman et al. 2013). For example, studies on the Humber estuary in the United Kingdom revealed that 25 years after restoration of tidal marshes, the system proved to be economically more beneficial than maintaining the dykes (Turner et al. 2007). Similarly, the Scheldt estuary in France is expected to recover the initial costs of its restoration after a period of 20 years, an economic benefit of taking an ecosystembased defense that conventional coastal engineering cannot offer (Turner et al. 2007).

3.6.3.3 Effects of Hydroelectric Dams on the Climate and Earthquakes

Construction of hydroelectric dams is a surprisingly harmful and unsustainable anthropogenic landscape alteration. Although they provide clean energy, store water during droughts, and act as attractive tourist locations, the flooding which results from the construction of these massive structures leads to substantial amounts of carbon dioxide release due to decomposition and rotting of submerged organic matter (plants, algae, plankton) (Lima et al. 2008). It is well known that this is a greenhouse gas that fuels global warming and leads to worsening natural disasters. According to the most detailed estimate available, done by Lima and colleagues (2008) from Brazils National Institute for Space Research (INPE) the worlds 52,000 large dams contribute more than 4% of the total warming impact of human activities as 104 million metric tonnes of methane are emitted annually from reservoir surfaces. Although no one has yet calculated the total climate impact of dams, which would include releases of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, it is still acceptable to conclude dam reservoirs are the largest single source of human-caused methane emissions, contributing around a quarter (23%) of these emissions (Lima et al. 2008). Humans, however, can remove dams that are no longer working optimally, which unexpectedly are more abundant than one would think. In 2013, the United States American Rivers Association added 51 dam removals to its database of nearly 1150 dams
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that have been removed across the country since 1912, most of which were removed in the past 20 years (International Rivers, 2014). Decommissioning and subsequent removal of dams which are no longer performing optimally or are no longer required will allow ecosystem to be restored and the natural capacity to absorb changes (flooding) to be renewed since most productive wetlands are inundated by construction of dams. For instance, more than 400,000 square kilometres have been inundated by reservoirs worldwide (International Rivers, 2014). This represents 0.3% of the worlds land area, but the significance of the loss is greater than the figure suggests as river valley land provides the worlds most fertile farmland, and most diverse forests and wetland ecosystems (Marks, 2007). In terms of natural disasters, earthquakes have been suggested to be increasing in frequency and severity around the world as a result of climate change (McGuire et al. 2012). The reasoning behind this relates current trends is ice cover decrease and sea level rise as stressors on tectonic plates. Earthquakes have been well documented and studied in the past but are only recently being thought of as possible consequences of the current state of global warming (McGuire et al. 2012). Therefore, along with the already stressed state of the tectonic plates, hydroelectric dams are further increasing the risks of earthquake related natural disasters. There are over 10,000 dams in Canada of which 933 are categorised as large dams (Canadian Dam Association, 2013). The resulting weight accumulation on tectonic plates, which are otherwise not accustomed to such large change, can induce earthquakes or seismic activity. Hence, dam removal will reduce reservoir induced seismicity. Globally, there are over 100 identified cases of earthquakes that scientists believe were triggered by reservoirs. Currently, there are 32 reservoirs that are capable of inducing earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.0 (Figure 17) (International Rivers, 2014). The best, most sustainable solution to reduce the risk of earthquakes
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and decrease the amount of greenhouse gases emitted from reservoirs would therefore be decommissioning of dams no longer performing optimally.

Figure 17. This map constructed using Google Maps but provided by International Rivers displays the locations worldwide of suspected reservoir-induced seismicity (International Rivers, 2014).

3.6.4 Future Directions

Unfortunately, there is still a range of gaps in knowledge that exist with regards to key factors of adaptive water management. Furthermore, some developing countries do not have the political stability, reliable administrative framework, or basic technologies useful for achieving successful water management (Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007). This does not mean it is not possible, however, since the main benefit of adaptive water management is it can be tailored to the needs of these countries in ways that will eventually lead to a more stable and sustainable management framework. In relation to ecosystem-based defense strategies and decommissioning hydroelectric dams to reduce the risk of flooding and earthquakes, respectively, future research should aim to identify locations where these approaches can be applied. Many coastal cities have great

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potential for remediating existing estuaries, mangrove forests, and wetlands to restore their natural capacity to reduce storm surges. The problem is many of these cities are unaware of the benefits of restoring these systems. On the other hand, in terms of hydroelectric dams and earthquakes, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the correlation between climate change and earthquakes. Therefore, to better support the decommissioning of large hydroelectric dams, greater evidence needs to be collected regarding the link between the two (McGuire et al. 2012).

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4. Conclusions

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4.1 Concluding Remarks

The massive contribution of the human race to global warming has been a dominant theme throughout this report. The adoption of lifestyles disconnected from nature has led humans to dump wastes, in the form of greenhouse gases, into our own backyards. Collectively, we have disregarded the beautiful and complex ecosystems that provide the pillars for our survival and persistence on planet earth. We are contributing in many ways to the deterioration of these ecosystems; from the saturation of our soils with pesticides, to the poisoning of our waters with plastic. Human encroachment on planet earth has been disastrous for many other organisms in many ways. The anthropogenically-induced climate warming has negatively impacted countless species, from those that provide us with food through pollination, to those who clean our air. These species are resorting to different survival strategies such as range shifts, adaptation and phenotypic plasticity and in some cases this is not enough. Furthermore, the climate changeinduced shift in disturbance regimes due to increased frequency and severity of natural disasters upsets the delicate balance of these ecosystems. Some species must find ways to cope with these changes in disturbance regimes as well, or potentially face extirpation or even extinction. Many species have gone extinct in the past decade and many are at high risk, specifically those at higher elevations and latitudes. The importance of maintaining a diverse planet is especially important due to the fact that many species provide us with valuable ecosystem services. For example, pertaining to human agriculture, birds are of great importance as they pollinate crops, eliminate pests, as well as disperse seeds (Cotton et al., 2009). Although awareness of global warming and its ecological impacts is increasing, it seems unlikely that serious action will be taken to reduce emissions in the near future. Therefore,
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different strategies for mitigating these negative impacts have been discussed. Unlike most species in nature, which change their own behaviours or ecological ranges to survive effects of climate change, humans change the environment to fit their agenda, causing further damage to ecosystems. Reducing the human alterations of the natural world has been discussed as a good place to start. Management of anthropogenic landscape alterations as well as ecosystem-based defence were both proposed as a viable response to climate change-induced natural disasters. The ecological impacts of climate change can be seen in many facets of our lives, as was shown though integration, including our means of food security and our health. Conditions will likely worsen unless immediate actions are taken; for example, a decrease in crop yields and an increase in Lyme disease have both been projected. While some countries find themselves in a constant loop, struggling to survive, others are living in enriched conditions. It is essential that the countries that are able to, recognize the urgency of this situation and put ecosystem protection at the forefront of all initiatives. The short-sightedness of our current resource management is indisputable and awareness of global warming as a threat to our survival is increasing. However we continue to live very destructive lifestyles. The first step to rehabilitating the integrity of our planet is to come together as a species and recognize that we are no more than a single piece of a very large puzzle and that if we dont dedicate ourselves to this cause, we will fail not only the natural world but ourselves as well.

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5. Reflections

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5. 1 Introduction
As we have neared the end of the course, Advanced Topics in Ecology, it seems only fitting to reflect upon our experiences in Biology 4A03 while critically thinking about the numerous skills we developed individually, and in a group setting. Throughout the duration of the course, groups were provided the opportunity to develop skills in a student-centered setting that facilitated self-directed learning within and between groups. The unorthodox organization of the course, to which most students in a university setting are not often exposed, resulted in a unique learning experience. Many aspects of the course were unconventional compared to the universal lecture style demonstrated in most classes at all levels of the education system. However, this exposure to self-directed learning was beneficial to us as we were not only able to direct our own success, but also gain insights with regards to what the reality of group-centered research is outside a typical classroom, including the significance of collaboration.

5. 2 Insights Gained
The student-centered foundation of Biology 4A03 provided our group with many opportunities to gain insights with regards to self-directed learning. Before taking this course, each member of our group had experienced minimal exposure to group work to the extent that was an integral aspect of this course. As third and fourth year students, we are no strangers to the various group projects that needed to be completed to fulfill requirements and gain participation marks. However, throughout university, little time was spent developing skills during group work, but rather trying to get the work done efficiently. However, what we have learned from this course is that time management, personal investment and contribution, proper organization, problem solving, and many more aspects that will be discussed, are all required aside from meeting the guidelines of the rubrics.
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5.3 Learning Experiences

Significance of group work is another insight that was gained as a result of taking this course which also served as a beneficial learning experience. The dynamics within our group initially provided the basis of our understanding of the importance of working together towards a common goal. However, it was the relations between other groups that facilitated the integration of our topic with many other groups, which may have otherwise been overlooked if focus had just been on our information. Even so, work within and between groups served as insightful learning experiences that ultimately led to the successful culmination of our Proposal Presentation (Appendix H), Final Presentation (Appendix I) and Final Integrated Report. 5.3.1 Within Group It was made clear that addressing issues within groups needed to be done relatively quickly in order to maintain stability while ensuring individuals did not feel undermined. This served as a useful learning experience because we wanted to ensure that jobs for each of the graded components of this course were equally distributed while still maintaining group morale. This involved having frequent discussions and meetings both in and outside designated class time. 5.3.2 Between Groups The collaborations with other groups served as a useful learning experience which emphasized the many benefits of integrating with other topics to further the success of each. Suggestions for other groups was encouraged which also led to the sharing of ideas. It was also interesting to see how other members of the class interpreted our topic during the Proposal and Final Presentations. This taught us to always consider the audience when providing information to ensure they are able to learn from your topic. Understanding of our topic was also
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accomplished through the responses we provided to questions posed by other groups (See Appendix C). This style of question and answer was very useful and we encouraged questions from other groups throughout the term.

5.4 Challenges Faced and Resolutions

The greatest challenge we faced as a group, and believe other groups experienced as well, was trying to cover as many topics as possible while still staying rooted to our topic. The number of connections that exist between topics used in this class are too many to count and so we had difficulty choosing which to focus on and how best to organize the connections in an understandable way. Our Final Integrated Report is simply one version of the ways in which connections can be made. In the end, we all were able to come to agreements on what connections needed to be made where and was done in a way we believe best demonstrates the connectedness of our topic with other groups. Based on the presentation requirements for this course, a challenge faced by our group was determining who was most comfortable presenting. Certain group members preferred to work more behind the scenes for the presentations. Therefore, our resolution was to incorporate their parts in the form of videos that were pre-recorded and edited for the presentation. This allowed the group members to formulate their speeches and compile videos that were added to our presentation (See Appendix B). To ensure the equal distribution of work, the group members that did not present during the final presentation worked on the formatting of the presentations. Another problem that we encountered through our research collaborations was within our own group. Coordinating six university students in different programs can be somewhat difficult. However, we were able to establish a communication system via Facebook and Doodle (See Appendix F). Furthermore, we were able to allocate jobs and stay on top of the tasks at hand
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using our weekly progress reports as reference points to where we left off, what had been done, and what needed to be done as a group and for each member (See Appendix D).

5.5 Developed Skills

There were several skills developed amongst group members throughout the duration of this course. For instance, the fact students were encouraged to exercise their creative abilities resulted in many of us learning how to make a website which we proudly compiled at the beginning of the term and were able to edit and add information to as the course progressed (See Appendix A). We also learned important skills with regards to providing effective constructive criticism. Although many of us had heard of the Sandwich Model before, we were able to apply it to the constructive criticisms given to other groups as well as observe it in the criticism we received from other groups (See Appendix E). Our organization skills and communications skills developed via the use of Facebook, Doodle (See Appendix F) as well as during each of our group meetings. Furthermore, the presentations completed in class allowed for further development of communications skills which are based upon appropriate delivery and ability to engage the audience. The final culmination of everything we accomplished in this class in our Final Integrated Report also served as a useful learning experience for development of organization skills. Not only did group members have to learn to manage their time, they also learned the necessary sacrifices that sometimes need to be made to finish projects on time.

5.6 Future Goals

When asked the question What would you do if your group was given 10 million dollars, we were slightly overwhelmed with what an appropriate answer would be. Our

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immediate response was with regards to our own group. We briefly discussed the various ways we would distribute the money to help mitigate and facilitate understanding of climate change and natural disasters around the world. However, upon further reflection, we believe the money should be distributed amongst all groups equally so that for each group, topics of food security, health, public awareness, poverty, technology, and sustainability would be considered of equal importance. This pertains to the reality of our future as well. There are multiple issues faced by humans and nature alike, many of which are caused or affected by climate change. Therefore, in order to sustain our Earth, each issue needs to be addressed but with consideration of the relations and potential influences on other problems. In terms of the knowledge we had before taking this course compared to what was acquired by the end, there is no doubt we expanded our understanding of topics related to all aspects of the current state of our Earth. The knowledge we have gained, regarding both factual information on topics of ecology and awareness of the benefits of collaborations within and between groups, will be applied in other areas of our lives. Hopefully, the future will hold promising careers for each of us which we will have attained by demonstrating the skills gained throughout and preceding this course.

5.7 Final Remarks

As a result of taking this course, each member developed skills that enhanced our abilities to work effectively and efficiently in groups, with a strong foundation in ensuring each member recognized the importance of equal contribution. If we are to take on the challenges posed by climate change and be successful in sustainably restoring and conserving all aspects of our Earth, we need to be prepared to face it together, as one group, systematically driven towards a common goal.
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6. References

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Ahlgren, I. F. & Ahlgren, C. E. (1960). Ecological effects of forest fires. Bot. Rev., 26(4), 483533. This paper explores the many changes of fires to ecosystems, both negative and positive effects. It examines many studies performed on the different components of the ecosystem, and how they are altered after the occurrence of a forest fire. Alcntara-Ayala, I. (2002). Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries. Geomorphology, 47(2), 107-124. The perspective of this article provided insight into the context of natural disasters and what differentiates these events from natural hazards. Interestingly, consideration of societal changes was also discussed which was useful in showing how humans can enhance climate change induced natural disasters. Allamano, P., Claps, P. & Laio, F. (2009). Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36(24). This article discusses the risk of increased precipitation of mountainous areas. Increases in the precipitation due to global warming leads to an increase risk of flooding to the human inhabitants of these areas. ABARES. (n.d). Reducing nitrous oxide emissions. Retrieved from: http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/~/media/Documents/Animals%20feed%20and%20environmen t/Environment/Climate-tool-kit/Research/reducing-nitrous-oxide-emmisions.pdf This is a document released by the Government of Australias Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. It outlines the need to reduce nitrous oxide as well as different approaches that have been taken (Appendix G). Badola, R., Barthwal, S. & Ainul Hussain, S. (2012). Attitudes of local communities towards conservation of mangrove forests: A case study from the east coast of India. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 96, 188-196. This is a study of the Bhitarkanika Conservation Area in India, and the attitudes of local inhabitants in this area towards both exploitation and conservation of the areas mangrove forests. General information on these individuals such as occupation, income, etc. are given as well as their opinions on many issues surrounding the mangroves forests. Issues include the protection from storms given by mangroves, use of forests for firewood, opinions on the creation of the conservation area. Boadi, D., Benchaar, C., Chiquette, J. & Masse, D. (2004). Mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emissions from dairy cows: update review. Can. J. Anim. Sci., 84, 319-335.

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This is a review paper that discusses the production of methane by ruminants as well as management strategies that have been investigated as a potential means of reducing emissions.

Bond, N. R., Lake, P. S. & Arthington, A. H. (2008). The impacts of drought on freshwater ecosystems: an Australian perspective. Hydrobiologia, 600(1), 3-16. This is a study of the effects that the millennium drought was having on aquatic ecosystems in the affected areas of Australia. The article summarizes that many negative impacts on different areas of these ecosystems in respect to nutrients and oxygen as well as on specific species. It also provides some general information on the overall impacts of drought and the potential destruction they can cause to different species due to their large extents. Bradford, A. (Producer), & Hunka, R. (Director). (2013). Ticked Off: The Mystery of Lyme Disease [Video file]. CBC News. Retrieved from: http://www.cbc.ca/natureofthings/episodes/ticked-off-the-mystery-of-lyme-disease This video was used for background research on the current trend of increasing deer tick prevalence in Canada. It provide great background and specific facts into the deer tick invasion of Canada (Appendix G). Bradshaw, W.E. & Holzapfel, C.M. (2006). Evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Science, 312, 1477-1478. This review article outlines several studies demonstrating the genetic shift in different species associated with climate change. These shifts are in response to changes in cues related to seasonality, for example the first day of spring, instead of changes in temperature directly. Bradshaw, C.J., Sodhi, N.S., Peh, K. S-H. & Brook, B.W. (2007). Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Glob. Change Biol., 13, 1-17. This article examines the impacts of reducing forest cover on flooding frequency and duration. A model was created using data from 56 developing countries from 1990 2000. Bryan, L., Carver, L., Butler, C.D. & Anage, A. (2009). Climate change and family planning: least-developed countries define the agenda. B. World Health Organ., 87, 852-857. This document by the World Health Organization summarized the effects of population growth within developing nations and the impacts that this has in these countries with relationship to climate change and adaptation to predicted climate change. Themes of
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degrading natural resources, increasing demand for these resources and an increased vulnerability to natural disasters are explored. Burma, J. & Dehn, M. (1998). A method for predicting the impact of climate change on slope stability. Environ. Geol., 35(2/3), 190-196. This article looks is based on the knowledge of an increase in landslides expected through climate change. It looks into the possibility of linking slope stability and hydrology to climate change through the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs). They found this to be fairly successful but also demonstrated the importance of local climate change studies. Butler, R.A., Pin Koh, L. & Ghazoul, J. (2009). REDD in the red: palm oil could undermine carbon payment schemes. Conserv. Lett., 2(2): 67-73. This article discusses how the success of reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) depends on the profitability of alternate land-uses. The profitability of converting a piece of land from a palm oil plantation to forest is examined. Canadian Dam Association (2013). Home. Retrieved from: http://www.imis100ca1.ca/cda This website provides a great deal of factual data regarding hydroelectric dams across Canada and around the world. The organization of information on various topics regarding these dams, including size, number, advantages, disadvantages, etc., was very easy to navigate. The data was also credible (Appendix G). Castiglioni, P., Warner, D., Bensen, R.J., Anstrom, D.C., Harrison, J., Stoecker, M., Heard, J.E. (2008). Bacterial RNA chaperones confer abiotic stress tolerance in plants and improved grain yield in maize under water-limited conditions. Plant Physiol., 147, 446-455. This study investigates the improved stress tolerance gained through the expression of bacterial cold-shock proteins in plants. Present crop yield losses are also discussed and were used for this project. Chief Medical Officer of Health. (2010). Lyme disease is on the increase [Brochure]. Queen's printer for Ontario. This brochure was very helpful in determining what effects deer ticks had on humans. It helped to explain specific symptoms as well as treatments for when a human is infected with Lyme disease. Collison, A., Wade, S., Griffiths, J. & Dehn, M. (2000). Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England. Eng. Geol., 55, 205-218.
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This study uses general circulation models to predict future increases in temperature and precipitation in southeast England due to climate change. From this, it is determined that small-scale landslides will likely decrease in frequency in future years.

Condon, A.G., Richards, R.A., Rebetzke, G.J., & Farquhar, G.D. (2002). Improving intrinsic water-use efficiency and crop yield. Crop. Sci., 42, 122-131. This study investigated methods for measuring and improving water-use efficiency in crops. Measurements of carbon isotopes were shown to accurately represent water-use efficiency. Information regarding transpiration rates their controlling factors is also discussed. Coole, D. (2013). Too many bodies? The return and disavowal of the population question. Environ. Pol., 22(2), 195-215. This article discusses rapid population growths experienced globally and mentions the stresses of large populations on ecological systems. An estimation of future population size is also mentioned. Cotton, K., Fry, M., Holmer, S., King, A., Schroeder, D., Shire, G. (2009). Saving migratory birds for future generations: The success of the Neotropical migratory birds conservation act. American Bird Conservancy . This online document outlines different threats to migratory birds and tactics that could be put in place to mitigate losses. Cornell, S.E., Prentice, I.C., House, J.I. & Downy, C.J. (2012). Understanding the earth system: Global change science for application. New York: Cambridge University Press. This textbook provides different contributors to climate change. It focuses on different feedback mechanisms as well as the role of the biosphere in propagating climate warming. Craig, W., Tepfer, M., Degrassi, G. & Ripandelli, D. (2008). An overview of general features of risk assessment of genetically modified crops. Euphytica, 164(3), 853-880. This article discusses the risk assessment of the use of genetically modified crops. Potential risks of using genetically modified crops and their impacts on local ecosystems and target consumers are also investigated. Dahlman, L. (2009) Climate Change: Global Temperature. Understanding Climate. Retrieved from: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-globaltemperature This article looks at the increasing trend of the average global temperatures. Warming may not be uniform across the planet, but there are more areas experiencing warming
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worldwide than there are areas experiencing cooling (Appendix G). Dalsgaard, B., Hilton , G. M., Gray , G. A. L., Aymer, L., Boatswain, J., Daley, J., Martin, J. (2007). Impacts of a volcanic eruption on the forest bird community of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles. Ibis, 149(2), 298-312. This study begins with a brief overview of the predicted effects of environmental catastrophes on different populations. It investigates into the effects of volcanic eruption on an area known as the Lesser Antilles Endemic Bird Area, a biodiversity hotspot home to many species of endemic birds. They determined that while volcanic activity had an impact on many of the studied species, the amount of rainfall in the previous year was just as important, if not more important in determining a species population size. Davis, N. (2013) What role for marine protected areas in a future of climatic change. Biodiversity of British Columbia. Lab for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University of British Columbia. Retrieved from: http://www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/MarineProtectedAreasUnderClimateChange.html This unpublished article from the University of British Columbia provided a great deal of insight into the potential for marine protected areas to improve corals resilience towards climate change induced ocean warming. It was further elaborated upon how MPAs could in turn improve biodiversity levels (Appendix G). Dawson, T.P., Jackson, S.T., House, J.I., Prentice, I.C. & Mace, G.M. (2011). Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science. 332(6025), 53-58. This article outlines different ways of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. It focuses on the varying resilience of organisms to climate change as well as how to consider this in management policies. Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Duffy, J. E., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., ... Talley, L. D. (2012). Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Marine Sci., 4. This article encompassed a wide ray of ideas. Of these ideas the changes in species ranges was a large portion. It looked into how species ranges had been changing in the past and currently. Duncan, R.P., Cassey, P. & Blackburn, T. (2009). Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions. Proc. R. Soc. B., 276, 1449-457. This article investigates the use of climate envelope models (CEMs) in predicting the change in a species range in response to climate change. The range of dung beetles in different climates is analyzed to elucidate the effectiveness of CEMs.

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Edwards, M. & Richardson, A. J. (2004). Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature, 430(7002), 881-884. This source was used in order to assess the changes in plankton species within the oceans. It provided valuable insight into how species phenology has been changing in the oceans in the past couple of decades. Eisenstein, M. (2013). Discovery in a dry spell. Nature, 501(7468), 57-59. This article talks about past crop improvements and stresses the importance of developing drought-resistant crops to retain crop yields as climate changes increase the prevalence of drought conditions. Also discussed is the effectiveness of breeding compared to genetically modified crops. Emanuel, K. (2007). Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation. J. Climate., 20(22), 5497-5509. This article examines the change in kinetic energy of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and North Pacific. This article explains that there is a strong correlation with sea surface temperature and storm intensity. Finkelstein, M. E., Wolf, S., Goldman, M., Doak, D. F., Sievert, P. R., Balogh, G. & Hasegawa, H. (2010). The anatomy of a (potential) disaster: Volcanoes, behavior, and population viability of the short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus). Biol. Conserv., 143(2), 321-331. This article begins with a description of the different classifications of disturbances to an ecological system, emphasizing the importance of more research into large catastrophic disturbances. It then goes on to determine the effects of volcanic eruptions on the shorttailed albatross on the active volcanic island Torishima. They found that due to the populations rapid population growth, it had the ability to rebound fairly quickly after such a disturbance. Flannigan, M. D., Amiro, B. D., Logan, K. A., Stocks, B. J. & Wotton, B. M. (2006). Forest fires and climate change in the 21st century. Mit. and Adapt. Strat. for Global Chang., 11(4), 847-859. This paper is a review paper in which the results of many model studies of the interaction of fire and climate are summarized. Flannigan, M. D., Logan, K. A., Amiro, B. D., Skinner, W. R. & Stocks, B. J. (2005). Future area burned in Canada. Climate Change, 72(1-2), 1-16. This paper provides a great deal of background information regarding the impact wildfires can have on landscapes, specifically in Canada. Not only did it summary the importance of landscape management strategies in preparation for wildfires, it also provided other policies which could be implemented as a means of what humans can do to help ecosystems cope with climate change induced natural disasters.
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Flannigan, M., Stocks, B., Turetsky, M. & Wotton, M. (2009). Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Glob. Change Biol., 15(3), 549-560. Similarly to the previous article by Flannigan et al., this paper provides a great deal of information on relevant impacts of climate change on fire activity. The article also provides further discussion as to how humans can manage the effects of wildfire by preparing for the worst rather than focussing on suppression. This is highly useful as it applies to both integration and helps to answer the third question. Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J. & Wotton, B. M. (2000). Climate change and forest fires. Sci. Total Environ., 262(3), 221-229. This article explores the impact of climate change on the rate of forest fires. This paper uses models to estimate the range and severity of forest fires in future years in North America. Frank, B. (2013). The Health Effects of Hurricane Katrina. Geology and Human Health. Retrieved from: http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/health/case_studies/hurricane_Katrina.html This webpage was used in order to gain information on the health effects related to hurricanes. In particular this webpage looked into the health effects that were caused from hurricane Katrina (Appendix G).

Franklin, J. F. & Forman, R. T. (1987). Creating landscape patterns by forest cutting: ecological consequences and principles. Landscape Ecol., 1(1), 5-18 This article provides a foundation of knowledge regarding the impacts clear-cutting and various other logging techniques are having on the natural defense forests have against wildfires. This information is highly useful and the data can be used in support of finding sustainable solutions to clearcutting. Gaillard, J., Duncan, P., Delorme, D., Laere, G. V., Pettorelli, N., Maillard, D. & Renaud, G. (2003). Effects of Hurricane Lothar on the population dynamics of European roe deer. J. Wildlife Manage., 67(4), 767-773. This article involved the direct study of the effects of the 1999 Hurricane Lothar on the population of Roe Deer in two different study plots in France. Based on factors including a lower survival of the youngest and oldest deer, as well as male deer and also lower pregnancy rates, this study predicted a decrease in deer population. The results of the study showed no support for these hypotheses however, indicating the importance of understanding the effects of disasters on populations from a human management perspective.
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Gibson, R. N., Atkinson, R. J. A. & Gordon, J. D. (Eds.). (2007). Oceanog Mar. Biol.: An Ann. Rev. (Vol. 45). CRC press. This book was very useful in providing relevant data regarding corals. Information pertained to climate change and the subsequent effects on increasing ocean temperatures. Data on mass coral bleaching events was also provided and was helpful in describing the negative effects on biodiversity. Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W. & Flannigan, M. D. (2004). Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31(18). This article looks at the rate of forest fires in Canada and how they have changed in recent years due to climate change. The effects of human-induced climate change on the area burned by the fire are also explored. Gray, L. C. & Moseley, W. G. (2005 ). A geographical perspective on povertyenvironment interactions. Geographical J., 171(1), 9-23. This article looked at the interactions between poverty and the environment, discussing the importance of the proper definition of poverty as well as the historical significance of this relationship. A focus on farming was taken, using several examples including Honduras. In addition to this the creation of conservation areas was discussed, demonstrating that they often cut off locals from the natural resources they require to sustain themselves. Haddad, N. M., Bowne, D. R., Cunningham, A., Danielson, B. J., Levey, D. J., Sargent, S. & Spira, T. (2003). Corridor use by diverse taxa. Ecology, 84(3), 609-615. This article summarizes information regarding marine and terrestrial conservation corridors. This is highly useful as it provides a better understanding of the relation between land corridors and marine protected areas which both serve a common goal of biodiversity conservation. Haines, A., Kovats, R. S., Campbell-Lendrum, D. & Corvaln, C. (2006). Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public Health, 120(7), 585-596. This article was very useful as a resource for the impacts of natural disasters on human health. Harley, C. D., Randall Hughes, A., Hultgren, K. M., Miner, B. G., Sorte, C. J., Thornber, C. S., Williams, S. L. (2006). The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecol. Lett., 9(2), 228-241.

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This article examined the effects of temperature on spawning times of certain fish species. It looked into how with changing life history traits there is starting to be a mismatch in food availability between co-evolved species.

Harper, J. (2011, Aug. 23). Are Category 6 Hurricanes Coming Soon? Sci. Am. Retrieved from: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-category-6-hurricanes-coming/ This article posted to Scientific America provided current information regarding the possibility of category 6 storms developing and being added to the current SaffirSimpson scale. Since this is a relatively new idea, there are contrary perspectives which conflict (Appendix G). Heimpel, G.E., Yang, Y., Hill, J.D. & Ragsdale, D.W. (2013). Environmental consequences of invasive species: greenhouse gas emissions of insecticide use and the role of biological control in reducing emissions. Plos One. 8(8), e72293. This article discusses the impacts of warming on pest distribution as well as the subsequent increase in pesticide application. In addition, it investigates the potential impact of introducing a pesticide threshold and the use of biological agents on GHG emissions. Hoekstra, A.Y. & Mekonnen, M.M. (2011). The water footprint of humanity. P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 3232-3237. This study measures the use of rainwater as well as ground and surface water globally. Also discussed are how these water sources are being consumed, outlining the importance of water use for agricultural practices. Hosking, R. (Director). (2009). Natural World: Farm for the Future. [Documentary]. UK: BBC. This BBC documentary follows a woman in Devon, England who is inquiring about how to make her farm more sustainable in a world where fossil fuels accessibility is decreasing. She discovers permaculture and the different benefits that it provides. Hughes, T. P., Baird, A. H., Bellwood, D. R., Card, M., Connolly, S. R. & Folke, C. (2003). Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science, 301(5635), 929-933. This article discussed climate change, human impacts and the resilience of coral in relation to each other and the degrees to which each are affected by the general trend of global warming. The article also discussed the need to try and increase corals tolerance to preserve biodiversity in light of climate change which was very useful for this integrated report. International Rivers (2014).International Rivers. Home. Retrieved from: http://www.internationalrivers.org/
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This website is a great tool for finding information regarding dams, reservoirs, rivers etc. It is easy to navigate which allows for easy access to facts, newspaper articles, papers and current data on all aspects related to international rivers (Appendix G).

IPCC. (2007). Faq 10.1 are extreme events, like heat waves, droughts or floods, expected to change as the earths climate changes? IPPC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Retrieved from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-10-1.html This frequently asked question page on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change answers the question of whether extreme climate events including droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. are expected to increase with a changing climate. It goes through the various types of extreme weather events that are expected to increase, giving examples of evidence already observed (Appendix G). IPCC. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special Report. Retrieved from: http://www.ipccwg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPMbrochure_FINAL.pdf This special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a Summary for Policy Makers about managing the risks to Extreme Events and Disasters. The scientific literature behind the expected increase in these disasters is summarized as well as the implications of these events and potential management strategies (Appendix G). Iverson, R.M. (2000). Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour. Res., 36, 18971910. This study presents a mathematical model for predicting landslides based on rain saturation of soils on slopes. Keller, B. D., Gleason, D. F., McLeod, E., Woodley, C. M., Airam, S., Causey, B. D., ... & Steneck, R. S. (2009). Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas. Environ. Manage., 44(6), 1069-1088. Coral reefs are identified as especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events. This article discusses the approach of networked marine protected areas and introduction of management strategies in order to improve corals ability to withstand such disturbances. Klos, R. J., Wang, G. G., Bauerle, W. L. & Rieck, J. R. (2009). Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the southeast USA: An analysis using forest health and monitoring data. Ecol. Appl., 19(3), 699-708. This study used Forest Health and Monitoring data from Alabama, Georgia and Virginia to look into the effects of drought on different tree species, particular as it effects growth and mortality. They generally found a decrease in tree growth across species and an
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increase in mortality with an increasing drought severity. The exception to this was the oak species, which showed significant tolerance to drought events. Kurz, W.A., Dymond, C.C., Stinson, G., Rampley, G.J., Neilson, E.T., Carroll, A.L., Safranyik, L. (2008). Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature, 452, 987-990. This review article discusses the impact of mountain pine beetles in western North American forests. Outbreaks of this insect reduce the forests ability to sequester carbon via an increase in dead and decaying plant material as well as a subsequent increase in forest fires. This results in a positive feedback to global warming which increases the frequency of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in North America.

LeRoy Poff, N. (2002). Ecological response to and management of increased flooding caused by climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., A., 360(1796), 1497-1510. This study looked into the responses of an ecosystem to floods, giving examples of several different types of species affected by seasonal flooding. It discussed the actual effects that human intervention strategies to prevent flooding have within an ecosystem as well as the potential impacts of an increase in frequency and severity of future flooding. Lima, I. B., Ramos, F. M., Bambace, L. A. & Rosa, R. R. (2008). Methane emissions from large dams as renewable energy resources: a developing nation perspective. Mit. and Adapt. Strat. for Global Chang., 13(2), 193-206. This report summarizing the ways in which hydroelectric dams are harming our environment in relation to emissions from reservoirs. The data presented in this paper is relevant to this topic as it provides evidence for the need to create sustainable solutions to hydroelectric dams. Lindenmayer, D. B., Hunter, M. L., Burton, P. J. & Gibbons, P. (2009). Effects of logging on fire regimes in moist forests. Conserv. Lett., 2(6), 271-277. This article discusses the effects of logging on fire regimes, specifically in moist forests. However, the data can still be applied to the third question of this research topic as it provides evidence for the need to develop fire management policies. Lugo, A. E. (2008). Visible and invisible effects of hurricanes on forest ecosystems: an international review. Aust. J. Ecol., 33(4), 368-398. This article summarizes the effects of hurricanes on forest ecosystems based on an international review of hurricane literature. While the immediate visible effects of hurricanes are obvious, this article aims to better investigate and summarize the longterm impacts of such occurrences. Immediate impacts, as well as long lasting impacts
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ranging on a time span from 1 100 years after a hurricane are investigated. A compiled list of 6 ecological roles of hurricanes is also included. MacKinnon, I. (2009, Feb. 18). Indonesia reopens peatland to palm oil plantation. The Guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/18/indonesia-peat-palm-oil This article was published in the Guardian to discuss how, in Indonesia, the laws protecting peatlands from degradation have become less strict over time (Appendix G). Malcom, J. R. & Pitelka, L. F. (2000). Ecosystems and Global Climate Change: A Review of Potential Impacts on U.S. Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity. Pew Center on Global Climate Change. This report discusses the impacts that global climate change has had and will have on ecological systems. It talks about possible events that will happen in the future if climate change progresses in the direction it is already headed. Marks, J. C. (2007). Down go the dams. Sci. Am., 296(3), 66-71. This pamphlet provides a great deal of information regarding the importance of decommissioning hydroelectric dams. It also discusses the benefits to doing so which can be integrated with sustainable solutions for anthropogenic climate change. Masle, J., Gilmore, S.R. & Farquhar, G.D. (2005). The ERECTA gene regulates plant transpiration efficiency in Arabidopsis. Nature, 436(7052), 866-870. This report demonstrates improvements to plant transpiration efficiency through the inclusion of an isolated gene, which confers transpiration efficiency. Also discussed are the mechanisms driving these improvements, showing that the inclusion of a single gene can have a variety of effects on plant growth. McCain, C.M. & King, S.R.B. (2014). Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change. Glob. Change Biology. This article discusses a study that determined two physiological characteristics, which affect the vulnerability of a species to climate change. McGuire, B. (2012). Waking the Giant: How a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes. Oxford University Press. This book provided some insight into the recent claim that there is a correlation between climate change and increases in earthquakes. The data on earthquakes is abundant but what McGuire attempts to do in this article is address the gap in knowledge regarding a relationship between climate change and earthquakes. This insight was of great use for the discussion on earthquakes.
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McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E. & Hales, S. (2006). Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet, 367(9513), 859-869. This article was an overview on a couple of different types of natural disasters and how they affected human health. Mitra, J. (2001). Genetics and genetic improvement of drought resistance in crop plants. Curr. Sci. India, 80(6), 758-763. This review discusses the methodology used to produce new drought-tolerant crop varieties through breeding and genetic modification. Also discussed are challenges and future directions for improving factors such as genetic screening. Mittler, R. & Blumwald, E. (2010). Genetic engineering for modern agriculture: Challenges and perspectives. Annu. Rev. Plant Biol., 61, 443-462. This article discusses the challenges of producing genetically modified drought-tolerant crops. Beyond screening, an understanding of the plant physiology and how environmental stressors influence crop growth as well as the proper testing of crop growth before genetically modified crop varieties are made commercially available are necessary to properly address the challenge of improving drought-tolerance in crops. Monirul Qader Mirza, M. (2002). Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Global Environ. Chang., 12(2), 127-138. This article discusses the impact of flooding on Bangladesh and the impact of climate change on crops.

Monsanto. (2014). Water efficient maize for Africa. Improving Agriculture. Retrieved from: http://www.monsanto.com/improvingagriculture/pages/water-efficient-maize-for-africa.aspx The Water Efficient Maize for Africa project aims to bring drought- and insect-tolerant maize varieties to Africa to aid farmers in producing crop yields adequate to feed local populations as the negative effects of climate change on crop yields will have great impacts on Africa in years to come (Appendix G). Moreira, F., Viedma, O., Arianoutsou, M., Curt, T., Koutsias, N., Rigolot, E., ... & Bilgili, E. (2011). Landscapewildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management. J. Environ. Manage., 92(10), 2389-2402. The foundation for this review article is to discuss the available knowledge on relationships between landscapes and wildfires in the Mediterranean region. Moreira et al. focuses on the application of landscape management guidelines to lower fire hazard and improve the ecosystems ability to resist wildfire disturbances. One of the emphasized

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concepts is to promote landscape heterogeneity, which becomes homogenized after wildfires. Mousavi, M. E., Irish, J. L., Frey, A. E., Olivera, F. & Edge, B. L. (2011). Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding. Climatic Change, 104(3-4), 575-597. This article discussed the potential of hurricane intensification and sea level rise as a result of climate change and the subsequent influences on coastal flooding. The information provided was very useful and provided evidence for climate change induced natural disasters. Mueter, F. J. & Litzow, M. A. (2008). Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. Ecol. Appl., 18(2), 309-320. This article examined the shifts in species ranges due to climate change. It examined how species will travel northward in order to maintain temperatures suitable to their survival. National Research Council. (1999). The impacts of natural disasters: A framework for loss estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Retrieved from: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=6425&page=55 In this report by the Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters from the National Research Council, the impacts on many different types of natural disasters are explored, including, floods, droughts, hurricanes and tropical storms, severe local storms and high winds. Impacts both economically and environmentally are discussed, with information on the latter being used for the purposes of this project (Appendix G). Nikolaou, A., Meric, S. & Fatta, D. (2007). Occurrence patterns of pharmaceuticals in water and wastewater environments. Anal. Bioanal. Chem., 387(4), 1225-1234. This article examines the different chemicals found in water, and the ability of these chemicals to spread to other sources

Notarbartolo di Sciara, G. (2007). Guidelines for the establishment and management of marine protected areas for cetaceans. Migrate. Retrieved from: http://lifeprojectmigrate.com/guidelinesfor-the-establishment-and-management-of-marine-protected-areas-and-cetaceans-accobamsmedmpa-unepcbd/ This report is a useful summary of how to establish and properly maintain marine protected areas. It offers a great deal of information regarding the benefits of marine protected areas, which is useful for answering the third question of our research topic (Appendix G).

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Nye, J. A., Link, J. S., Hare, J. A. & Overholtz, W. J. (2009). Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 393, 111-129. This was a study of a group of fish species to determine how their ranges had been affected by climate change. It found that nearly half of the species studied had moved their ranges northward or into deeper water in order to maintain external environmental temperatures. O'Brien, G., O'Keefe, P., Rose, J. & Wisner, B. (2006). Climate change and disaster management. Disasters, 30(1), 64-80. The current trends of climate change have prompted research on appropriate disaster management, which is what this article summarizes. The need for adaptive management for developing countries is emphasized as being the most important goal for the future. Pahl-Wostl, C., Downing, T., Kabat, P., Magnuszewski, P., Meigh, J., Schuter, M., ... Werners, S. (2005). Transition to adaptive water management: the NeWater project. Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrck. This article specifically addressed the ways in which current water management infrastructure can be transitioned into an adaptive water management approach. The NeWater project in Singapore was used as an example which provided better understanding in the steps that need to be taken to effectively switch from the current management of most countries to one that focuses on adaptive strategies. Pahl-Wostl, C. (2007). Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change. Water Resour. Manag., 21(1), 49-62. This article not only discussed the appropriate steps needed to be taken towards implementation of adaptive water management, but also emphasized the importance of doing so. Current trends of climate change and global population increases has prompted interest in switching from static management strategies to dynamic ones, which was a concept discussed in this integrated report. Pahl-Wostl, C., Sendzimir, J., Jeffrey, P., Aerts, J., Berkamp, G. & Cross, K. (2007). Managing change toward adaptive water management through social learning. Ecol. Soc., 12(2). This article effectively discussed the importance of teaching local populations about adaptive water management strategies so implementation of policies can be successful. One of the goals of adaptive water management is to act as a long-term solution, which can be achieved if knowledge is provided on benefits of this type of management.

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Park, S., Croteau, P., Boering, K.A., Etheridge, D.M., Ferretti, D., Fraser, P.J., Trudinger, C.M. (2012). Trends and seasonal cycles in the isotopic composition of nitrous oxide since 1940. Nature, 5, 261-265. This article discusses a study that determined how to elucidate the origin of atmospheric nitrous oxide. It also outlines the implication of this finding for monitoring reductions in nitrous oxide emissions. Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Chang., 14, 53-67. This study investigates the effects of future climate change on global crop yields and uses simulations of human activity towards climate change to estimate regions that will likely face the risk of hunger unless crop yields are improved. Qaim, M. & Zilberman, D. (2003). Yield effects of genetically modified crops in developing countries. Science, 299, 900-902. This study discusses field trials of Bt cotton in India and comments on improvements to insect-tolerance and yield increases. Also discussed is the importance of making genetically modified crop varieties available in developing countries as economic constraints can have negative impacts on crop yields. Restrepo, C., Walker, L. R., Shiels, A. B., Bussmann, R., Claessens, L., Fisch, S., ... Velzquez, E. (2009). Landsliding and its multiscale influence on mountainscapes. BioScience, 59(8), 685698. Restrepo et al., present a conceptual model in which feedbacks between biotic and geomorphic processes are hypothesized to drive the dynamics of mountain ecosystems. They discuss the attributes that contribute to ecosystem resilience and the influence landscape management can have on resolving the issues presented by landslides. They also emphasize the importance of collaboration amongst many disciplines using examples from Ecuador, Uganda, Mexico, and Peru. Rigolot, E., Fernandes, P. & Rego, F. (2009). Managing Wildfire Risk, Prevention, Suppression. Living with wildfires, what science can tell us. EFI Discussion Paper, 15, 49-52. One of the reoccurring themes throughout this integrated report is the focus on prevention as opposed to suppression. The article presented by Rigolot et al. helps support this idea that climate change is likely to lead to more severe natural disasters that humans are incapable of suppressing. Rose, J. B., Epstein, P. R., Lipp, E. K., Sherman, B. H., Bernard, S. M. & Patz, J. A. (2001). Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water-and foodborne
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diseases caused by microbiologic agents. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109, 211-220. This article delves into the effect of climate variability on water contaminants and its potiential negative effects on human health.

Samal, P. K., Palni, L. M. S. & Agrawal, D. K. (2003). Ecology, ecological poverty and sustainable development in central Himalayan region of India. Int. J. Sust. Dev. World, 10(2), 157-168. This article was focused on the interaction of poverty and environmental degradation in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). The use of the natural environment by inhabitants in this area was discussed as well as the impacts that this use has on this environment and subsequently themselves was thoroughly discussed. Schiermeier, Q. (2011). Increased flood risk linked to global warming. Nature, 470(7334), 316316. This article looks at the risk of flooding and its link to global warming.

Scheublin, T.R., Ridgway, K.P., Young, J.P.W. & Van der Heijden, M.G.A. (2004). Nonlegumes, legumes, and root nodules harbor different arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities. Appl. Environ. Microb., 70, 6240-6246. This article discusses the symbiotic relationships between legumes and different microcommunities. It outlines how these plants acquire nutrients through this symbiosis, which is relevant to the use of legume as an alternative to industrial fertilizer. Schumacher, S. & Bugmann, H. (2006). The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Global Chang. Biol., 12(8), 1435-1450. Using the forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps as the basis for their research, Schumacher and Bugmann model the influence and interactions of the various drivers of landscape dynamics. They address the relative importance of climatic effects and wildfires on landscapes and discuss the ability of forests to provide protection against natural disasters. They emphasize how the direct and indirect effects respectively result from climate change and fire activity. Scott, G. 2014. Personal communication. Dr. Graham Scott is a professor in the biology department with a focus on physiology. We discussed with him the implications of physiology on predicting ecosystem changes in response to climate change.

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Sol, D., Szekely, T., Liker, A. & Lefebvre, L. (2006). Big-brained birds survive better in nature. Proc. R. Soc. B., 274(1611), 763-769. This article shows how birds with relatively larger brain size have experienced lower mortality rates. It discusses the cognitive benefits associated with larger brain sizes and how this aids in environmental problem solving (Appendix G). Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (2007). Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Summary for policymakers. IPCC. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf This report discusses climate changes globally and how human activities can impact future climate changes. Also discussed are climate change scenarios which outline a number of ways humans may react to climate change and the effects these actions will have on the environment (Appendix G). Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Todd, J. B., Bosch, E. M., Wotton, B. M., Amiro, B. D., ... Skinner, W. R. (2002). Large forest fires in Canada, 19591997. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 814, FFR 5-1 FFR 5-12. This article effectively summarized the results of studies conducted in northern Canada on the size and severity of wildfires. A correlation was made between increasing wildfires as a result of global warming. The time period for which this information was gathered increases the credibility of the data. Stokes, A. (Ed.). (2007). Eco-and Ground Bio-engineering: the Use of Vegetation to Improve Slope Stability: Proceedings of the First International Conference on Eco-engineering 13-17 September 2004 (Vol. 103). Springer. Similarly to the paper by Luckman et al., this report summarizes the importance of improving slope stability in light of increasing landslide events due to climate change. This was highly useful in answering the third question of this research. Storms, D., Said, S., Fritz, H., Hamann, J. L., Saint-Andrieux, C. & Klein, F. (2006). Influence of hurricane lothar on red and roe deer winter diets in the northern Vosges, France. Forest Ecol. Manag., 237(1-3), 164-169. This article is in response to earlier studies suggesting an increase in the population of deer following Hurricane Lothar due to tree-fall clearings causing an increase in grass for consumption by deer. This study analyzed the foraging patterns of both Roe and Red Deer in study areas in France and found partial support for previous hypotheses by finding an increase in the proportion of grass in the diet of Roe Deer following the hurricane. The study also discusses the potential of population growth occurring due to setbacks in succession of the forest.
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Tao, F., Yokozawa, M., Xu, Y., Hayashi, Y. & Zhang, Z. (2006). Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 138(1), 82-92. This article discusses the impacts of a warmer climate on crop yields. It outlines different studies that have associated warmer temperatures with decreased crop success. Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M., Ysebaert, T. & De Vriend, H. J. (2013). Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change. Nature, 504(7478), 79-83. This article successfully communicates the importance of an ecosystem-based defense in response to flooding. It addresses that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable and cost-effective alternative to conventional coastal engineering. The issue of viability of such an approach is discussed using examples such as Hurricane Katrina and cities other than New Orleans which are susceptible to flooding. Thornton, P.K., Jones, P.G., Alagarswamy, G., & Andresen, J. (2009). Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Global Environ. Chang., 19, 54-65. This study investigates climate data in East Africa to understand the effects of climate change on crops now and in the future. Also discussed are methods for improving crop yields by aiding smallholder households adapt to climate changes.

Tuberosa, R. & Salvi, S. (2006). Genomics-based approaches to improve drought tolerance of crops. Trends Plant Sci., 11, 405-412. This review discusses genomics-based approaches used to improve drought-tolerance in crops. Also discussed are quantitative trait loci and how the derived genes can influence crop growth. This review investigates the importance of root length and architectural efficiency to improving drought-tolerance. Tuite, A.R., Greer, A.L., Fisman, D.N. (2013). Effect of latitude on the rate of change in incidence of Lyme disease in the United States. Can. Med. Assoc. J., 1, 43-47. This study analyzed data on Lyme disease in the USA from 1993 to 2007. Results showed that Lyme disease incidences increased as a whole across the time period, however, the northern-most states were where the increase was experienced. A background on the transmission of Lyme disease is given in addition to the change in the ticks geographical range and its association with climate change. Turner, R. K., Burgess, D., Hadley, D., Coombes, E. & Jackson, N. (2007). A costbenefit appraisal of coastal managed realignment policy. Global Environ. Chang., 17(3): 397-407.
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This article discusses the economic benefits as well as challenges faced by adaptive coastal management policies for water. The objective of this article was very clear and allowed for the understanding of this topic. In particular, developing countries were discussed as the areas with greatest potential for such management strategies in terms of water use and consumption.

Turton, S. M. (2012). Securing landscape resilience to tropical cyclones in Australia's wet tropics under a changing climate: Lessons from cyclones Larry (and Yasi). Geogr. Res., 50(1), 15-30. This study looked at the impacts of hurricanes within the Wet Tropics region of Northeast Australia, in particular in response to tropical cyclone Larry. It looked at the impacts on several different species as well as summarized the ideas of ecosystem resilience as well as phase shifts within an ecosystem. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2013). Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. International Energy Outlook 2013. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm This webpage outlines the energy related carbon dioxide emissions on a global basis, including both past and projected future trends. A breakdown between developed and non-developed countries is provided as well as a breakdown of the main players within each group, with an emphasis on the Untied States of America and Asia (Appendix G). Wells, S., Sheppard, V., van Lavieren, H., Barnard, N., Kershaw, F., Corrigan, C., UNEPWCMC (2008). National and Regional Networks of Marine Protected Areas: A Review of Progress. UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. This report provides a useful compilation of information regarding the current and future progress of developing networks of marine protected areas. It not only discusses the state of current policies, but also improvements that could be made to ensure the conservation of marine biodiversity. Union of Concerned Scientists. (2013). Infographic: Western Wildfires and Climate Change. Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved from: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfiresclimate-change.html This website provided a useful infographic on wildfires in the western United States. This visually demonstrated the current trends and data on wildfires which are likely to increase. This website also provided subsequent, credible information that was used in this report (Appendix G).

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Van Lavieren, H., Spalding, M., Alongi, D. M., Kainuma, M., Clsener-Godt, M. & Adeel, Z. (2012). Securing the future of mangroves. Policy brief, UN Univ. Inst. Water Env. Health, Hamilton, Can. Retrieved from: http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002192/219248e.pdf This policy by the United Nations University gives an overview of the importance of mangrove ecosystems. It summarizes their value economically, environmentally and culturally in many areas of the world. The decline of mangrove forests is discussed as well as programs that are being put in place for sustainable living that protects local economy and also allows for mangrove conservation (Appendix G). Vincent, J. R. & Das, S. (2009). Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone. P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106(18), 73577360. This article is a concise investigation of the potential ability of mangrove forests to save human lives during large storm events. Information was used from hundreds of villages on the Eastern Coast on India after a super-cyclone struck in 1999. This study predicts that an additional 1.72 deaths per village within 10km of the coast would have occurred in the absence of mangrove protection. Walker, L.R., Zarin, D.J., Fetcher, N., Myster, R.W. & Johnson, A.H. (1996). Ecosystem development and plant succession on landslides in the Caribbean. Biotropica, 28, 566-576. This study investigates the damages to the local ecosystem caused by landslides as well as the ecosystems subsequent recovery. Soil nutrient levels in newly laid soils are often significantly lower than long-standing soils which can negatively affect the rate at which pioneer species are able to establish themselves. Walmsley, J. (2012). State-of-the-environment reporting for the Gulf of Maine. Am. Fish. Soc. Symp., 79, 61-72. This article suggested that species will continue to adapt their ranges in order to maintain external environments that are suitable to their biological needs. Wamsley, T. V., Cialone, M. A., Smith, J. M., Atkinson, J. H. & Rosati, J. D. (2010). The potential of wetlands in reducing storm surge. Ocean Eng., 37(1), 59-68. The researchers in this article demonstrated the potential of wetlands to reduce storm surges. The results of their study, conducted in southern Louisiana, provided evidence for this which thus supports the implementation of an ecosystem based defense for hurricane prone coastlines. This helped to answer one of the three questions posed by this integrated report. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., & Chang, H. R. (2005). Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.
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The researchers examined the number of tropical cyclones as well as the intensity of each over the past 35 years (before 2005). The data they collected demonstrated the increase in these storms over this time period as a result of ocean warming caused by climate change. This data is evidence for climate change induced natural disasters.

Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R. & Swetnam, T. W. (2006). Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science, 313(5789), 940-943. The data from this article demonstrates the changes in wildfire regimes due to earlier spring in the western US, which has ultimately been caused by global warming. This collection of information and interpretation of results was very useful and served as a source of valid information for this report (Appendix G). Whittingstall, D. (2012, March 5). Simple Climate. Retrieved from: http://climatesoscanada.org/blog/2013/03/05/projected-effects-and-historical-overview-ofcivilizational-forced-climate-change/ This article discusses the predicament of rising global temperatures and the correlation with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The detrimental effects of global warming are examined in this article (Appendix G). Wilkinson, D. M. (1999). The disturbing history of intermediate disturbance. Oikos , 84(1), 145147. This article gives a brief summary of the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH) as proposed by Connell in 1978 as well as discusses the history behind this popular ecological theory and it development within the scientific community. Zhang, K., Liu, H., Li, Y., Xu, H., Shen, J., Rhome, J. & Smith III, T. J. (2012). The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 102, 11-23. The study performed by these researchers, conducted on the Gulf Coast of South Florida showed the effective attenuation of storm surges from a category 3 hurricane by the mangrove forest. This information provided valid evidence for the potential of coastlines to naturally reduce the risks of flooding by hurricanes without construction of sea walls and embankments.

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7. Appendices

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Appendix A:

Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Website Screenshots

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Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Website

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The Further Integrations section of our website is intended to allow other groups to collaborate and share possible integrations with their groups

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Appendix B:

Final Presentation Film Clip Scripts

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Team Biotech Integration for the Final Presentation One of the ways the topic of climate change integrates with team Biotech is through the development of drought-resistant crops to combat these changes. Presently, the production of key crops such as corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans has been essential for maintaining a world food supply adequate to feed growing populations. However, increasing global temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will result in more frequent droughts, decreasing crop yields. Though farmers can take action to adapt to climate change, simulations of long-term climate change predict that many of these adaptations will result in decreases in crop yields with time. Simulations investigate scenarios of human activity towards climate change and take into account general circulation models to estimate climate changes globally. Farmer-mediated adaptation strategies such as changing planting dates, using different varieties of crops, and increasing crop irrigation are also considered in simulations as these can improve crop yields. Simulations studied by Parry et al. (2004) predict that crop yields will decrease in developing countries such as Africa and parts of Asia and increase in developed regions such as North America, Australia, and parts of South America. As temperatures continue to rise and drought becomes more common, the development of drought-resistant crops through either breeding or genetic engineering is necessary to avoid crop yield loss. In 2013, Monsanto released their first genetically modified strain of corn designed to withstand periods of drought by decreasing water absorption in dry conditions. However, many claim that this strain does not perform any better than drought resistant strains achieved through breeding. Looking forward, developments towards improved drought resistance in crops will be beneficial in both the developed and developing world.

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Team Waste Not Want Not Integration for the Final Presentation A few weeks ago we heard from Waste Not Want Not on the impact of contaminants in the water. They stressed the detrimental effects of improper water treatment for pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceuticals, as well as other contaminants in the water, can pose many threats to humans and other animals. Many people are actually unaware of the consequences of improper waste disposal, and the inadequate treatment of water to remove these contaminants. But how does this link to climate change, you ask? Well, what if there was a flood and it caused these contaminated waters to be washed into agricultural land, or into the lakes? For more than a decade, there has been a significant increase in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to global warming, which could lead to flooding. Many studies have found that climate change is directly linked to an increase in the number of floods. In cities that are unable to handle a large increase in rainwater, this can be very harmful, as water from the sewers rises and potentially spreads to many different sources. Chemicals in the environment may lead to physical changes in animals, and has been linked to disruptions in the endocrine systems of animals and humans. Runoff of the contaminated water from the flooded sewers and water plants into larger water bodies and surrounding agricultural land can further exacerbate the issue. In Southern Ontario, a study examined seven tributaries receiving agricultural input and detected pharmaceutical waste. In order to prevent the spread of contaminants in the water system, better methods for dealing with increased rainfall and extracting chemicals from the water will need to be examined.

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Team Youre Infected Integration for the Final Integration Climate change is having a larger impact on human health than many people realise. It is responsible for increasing the ranges of many pest species that are known vectors for disease. One of these many pests is the Deer tick which is responsible for transferring Lyme disease to humans. The lyme disease bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi is transferred to humans through the bite of an infected tick. Since ticks are so small their attachment to human hosts often goes undetected until after the bacteria has been passed onto the host. In 1989 the known deer tick population in Canada was limited to the Long Point region in Southern Ontario. However, since 1989 the range of deer ticks has been increasing at an alarming rate. In 2002 deer tick populations were popping up all over Canada first in the Maritimes followed by Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and even as far west as British Columbia. Climate change is the main reason for this rapid expansion. Currently ticks are expanding through the most densely populated areas of Canada at a rate of nearly 46-50km per year northward. It is predicted that by 2020, 80% of Canadians will be exposed to deer ticks increasing their risk for contracting lyme disease. Lyme disease can be quite debilitating to those infected and usually results in the patient requiring weeks to months of antibiotic treatment. As such the increase in prevalence of the deer tick could cause increased strain on an already overloaded medical system.

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Appendix C:

Proposal Presentation Answers to Questions Posed from other Groups

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Question from Waste Not Want Not

1.

What are the greatest obstacles associated with successful implementation of climate change remediation policies (ex. Cost, awareness, public interest etc.)?

The implementation of remediation policies is not very realistic in the face of the highly unpredictable occurrence of natural disasters. Strategies and appropriate remediation techniques are more likely to be applied in response to climate change induced natural disasters. Even so, more often than not it is difficult to model exactly when, where, and how severe natural disasters such as drought, floods, storms, and wildfires will be. This is partly due to our lack of ability to distinguish between climatic variability and natural fluctuations which is why in most cases we are unprepared for the occurrence of natural disasters. It also represents a major obstacle when trying to develop appropriate strategies. Therefore two phrases, what if and so what are important components to consider when developing these strategies. It is also important to note that these strategies are meant to act less as solutions to problems natural disasters have already caused, but rather as defenses against potential natural disasters (Mortsch, 1998). Rather than approach things from a predictive point of view, we need to consider if certain conditions occurred, what would be the impact and what could be done in order to prevent it or at least minimize the impact. This addresses the idea again of an ecosystem-based defense approach and application of strategies (Temmerman et al. 2010). The impacts of climate change may not be managed by the implementation of policies. However, knowledge of ecosystem responses assists in determining how robust natural systems are and ways in which we can improve their ability to cope with and successfully recover from effects of climate change induced natural disasters. Another obstacle pertains to the limitation of time. Global warming is occurring at an accelerated rate meaning natural systems do not have sufficient time to respond and subsequently adapt appropriately. Not only are these systems struggling to keep up with the current trend of increased natural disasters as a result of global warming, humans are also having difficulty developing strategies in time before the next disaster strikes our ecosystems. The development process requires research, ecosystem monitoring, weather reporting, disaster predictions, climate forecasts and much more (Hanuta, 2007). Furthermore, the application process and subsequent monitoring takes time to determine the successfulness.

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However, until we can accurately forecast the predictability of natural disasters with 100% confidence, the best approach would be to develop more robust ecosystem based-defense strategies.

References

Hanuta, I. (2007). A proposed national drought strategy for Canada. Retrieved February 08, 2014, from http://www.drinetwork.ca/Presentations/WS2/partner_hanuta.pdf

Mortsch, L. D. (1998). Assessing the impact of climate change on the Great Lakes shoreline wetlands. Climatic Change, 40(2), 391-416. doi:10.1023/A:1005445709728

Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M. J., Ysebaert, T., & De Vriend, H. J. (2013). Ecosystembased coastal defence in the face of global change. Nature, 504(7478), 7983. doi:10.1038/nature12859

2.

How does Canada compare with other countries in terms of remediation protocols for natural disasters in response to climate change?

The Canadian Parks Council has created a forum that allows different governments to share their plans of action for maintaining protected areas in their natural state. This will allow for uniform strategies and cooperative management across Canada. In addition, the Canadian Parks Council (2007) has created a document outlining principles and guidelines of restoration, which were developed by different working groups, including government panels, aboriginal groups, and academics. This will allow for cooperation from all stakeholders and lead to more successful restoration. The document outlined 7 steps for implementing ecological restoration in Canadas protected land: (1) identify the sites natural and heritage value, (2) define the problem, (3) develop restoration goals, (4) develop objectives, (5) develop a detailed restoration plan, (6) implement detailed restoration plan to the site, and (7) monitor and report the outcomes of the restoration plan (Canadian Parks Council, 2007). Attempts were made to include stakeholders, communities and the general public. Many recommendations were made for restoration following natural disasters. For example, the disruption of natural cycles of disturbances is not recommended (e.g.

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removal of fallen wood after a storm). Additionally, commencing major restoration activities after a disturbance instead of allowing natural regeneration to take place is not recommended. There are many other recommendations, however we will not go into all of them. Due to the alteration of disturbance regimes as a result of climate change, new guidelines will need to be made in order to decide how we must intervene.

The protocols are similar across the world in terms of the steps of implementation (SER International, 2004). However, certain ecosystems still require sustainable human interactions, for example, from the cultural livelihood of indigenous people (SER International, 2004). Before large-scale development, these humans were a key part of natural, balanced ecosystems. Therefore, the North American approach of creating ecosystems completely devoid of human interference may be inefficient in places such as Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America where these cultures previously thrived (SER International, 2004). As a result, cultural practices are being turned to as a means of ecological restoration in these areas.

References

Society for Ecological Restoration International. (2004). The SER international primer on ecological restoration . Retrieved from http://www.ser.org/docs/default-document-library/english.pdf

Canadian Parks Council. (2007). Principles and guidelines for ecological restoration. Retrieved from http://www.pc.gc.ca/docs/pc/guide/resteco/guide_e.pdf

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Questions from From the Ground Up

1.

In your presentation you mentioned that Roe Deer did not have reduced survival or lower fecundity as a result of Hurricane Lothar. Is this typical of species following natural disasters (ie. seemingly no negative impact after a natural disaster)? How can you tie this finding into your second question (indirect effects of climate change)?

There is no set way to determine how a natural disaster will affect a population of animals after a natural disaster has struck. In the case of the Roe Deer there was an increase in their population because of a multitude of factors. For starters, when hurricane Lothar swept through the region it knocked over trees which allowed for an increase in biomass of highquality food for the deer (Gaillard et al, 2003). In conjunction with the increase in biomass of food, the human population in the area determined, prematurely, that the deer population would have been adversely affected by the hurricane and thus they did not hand out as many tags that year during hunting season (Gaillard et al, 2003). Since less deer were killed from hunting season more were available for breeding and so the population saw an increase in numbers in the following season (Gaillard et al, 2003). Continuing, the deer have adapted a precise escape behaviour which allows them to avoid injuries and deaths from falling trees during storms. Due to this escape behaviour lower numbers of Roe Deer died from the hurricane (Gaillard et al, 2003). The Roe deer example was used as a way to show that not all disasters have a negative impact on the populations that are affected by the disaster. In general the affect of a natural disaster would be best analysed using different principles related to disturbance hypotheses. When a natural disaster occurs it can affect the ecosystem in a various ways. These effects can occur on a large or small scale. When little damage occurs small gaps occur and are filled in with mainly local flora and fauna (Freedman et al, 2011). However in
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the case of larger disturbance events, certain areas of the landscape can be affected differently. In the case of a tsunami, the coastlines are affected to a greater extent than areas that are located further inland (Freedman et al, 2011). This causes the shoreline to be reduced to an earlier successional stage than the areas further inland. The shoreline then will initially be populated by r-selective species while K-selective species will move in later after the ecosystem has started to recover (Freedman et al, 2011). Furthermore, species that are able to move out of the way of the disaster will suffer less than the species that are not able to move easily away from the impending danger (Freedman et al, 2011). Thus, the species that are not able to move may be affected more adversely than those that have a larger range and are able to move to avoid the disaster. However the adverse affects may be limited to those species that are not able to move as they may have adaptations that allow them to survive the natural disaster without the need to move. Therefore predicting the affects, positive or negative, on populations after a natural disaster has affected an area is difficult as there are numerous factors at play and no two natural disasters will be the same. Our second question is stated as: What are the indirect effects of climate change (causing natural disasters) on ecosystem (population/community structure and interactions, succession)? Therefore the findings of the Roe Deer tie in quite nicely. The direct affect on the ecosystem from the natural disaster (hurricane Lothar) was the falling trees creating clearings in the forest that allowed for an increase in biomass of food for the deer. Indirectly related to this is the humans in the region believing that the population had been adversely affected thus they did not hunt the deer as heavily that season. Due to less predation (hunting) by the humans there were larger amounts of deer mating in the region and so there was an increase in the population of the

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deer. So in conclusion as a result of hurricane Lothar damaging the local ecosystem, indirectly the Roe Deer population increased.

References Freedman, B., Hutchings, J. A., Gwynne, D. T., Smol, J. P., Suffling, R., Turkington, R., & Walker, R. L. (2011). Ecology A Canadian Context. Toronto, Ontario: Nelson Education. Gaillard, J., Duncan, P., Delorme, D., Laere, G. V., Pettorelli, N., Maillard, D., & Renaud, G. (2003). Effects of hurricane lothar on the population dynamics of european roe deer. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 67(4), 767-773. doi: 10.2307/380268

2.

Is there any support in the media that climate change can dramatically alter the phenotypes of animals over a short time period, such as ten years from now? Are we able to predict what impacts that will have on ecosystems? Also, is it possible that different phenotype arising in local ecology affect the human way of life?

When climate fluctuations in a particular ecosystem vary more greatly than an organism is evolutionarily adapted to, it can respond by migrating to another ecosystem or modify some expressed phenotype to combat the change. The strategy employed by a particular organism depends on how quickly it is able to migrate. However, introducing an alien species to a novel ecosystem often results in phenotypic plasticity as well since a new environment can present different challenges that require more than behavioural adaptation to survive. An example of this is a field experiment conducted by McGeoch et al. (2006) which investigated the effects of experimentally reduced precipitation and increased temperature on the
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desiccation resistance of two soil- and surface-dwelling arthropods, springtails and mites. This experiment took place on Marion Island and the experimental manipulations used were chosen to simulate the effects of climate change on this environment. Polycarbonate sheets were placed over a keystone species of plants that the two arthropods rely on to prevent rain from directly reaching these plants for a year. Springtails and mites commonly reside in the soil near these plants as they provide shelter which retains soil moisture and keeps soil temperatures low. After a year with no direct exposure to rain, most springtail species in the experimental area decreased in both abundance and biomass with the exception of one species, which became abundant enough that it dominated over all other springtails in the experimental environment. Mite species on the other hand were largely unchanged in relative abundance. However, one mite species which thrived in the control environment further increased in relative abundance, largely dominating over all species in this community. This field experiment demonstrates that the increased warming and drying of certain terrestrial ecosystems typical of climate change can cause relative species abundances to change drastically over a short period of time. However, due to the nature of the experiment, it is difficult to distinguish between evolutionary and phenotypic adaptation. It is challenging to properly assess what impacts phenotypic plasticity as result of climate change may have on a particular ecosystem. Climate change is a gradual and on-going process and phenotypic plasticity typically aids an organism in situations of local, short-term adaptation. Therefore, as climates shift further from their natural conditions, it is unclear to what extent a particular species will be able to adapt phenotypically. This may lead to the migration or extinction of species unable to combat a particular change in an ecosystem. Additionally, as this experiment shows, community interactions can further obscure the effects of climate change on phenotypic plasticity.
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I have been unsuccessful in finding a case where local phenotypic plasticity caused by climate change has influenced human life. Since phenotypic changes promote the survival of a species to short-term changes in a local environment, it may be unlikely that any phenotypic changes brought about by climate change will adversely affect humans. The only possible case I know of where phenotypic plasticity may be aiding in affecting human life is our example of invasive species from our proposal presentation. In this example, it was explained that Lyme disease incidence was increasing significantly in Northern states as species of ticks which act as vectors for the disease have expanded their habitable range (Tuite et al, 2013). Though the expansion of these species habitable range is primarily due to climate change, adaptation to these novel environments is likely achieved through phenotypic plasticity.

References McGeoch, M.A., Le Roux, P.C., Hugo, E.A., & Chown, S.L. (2006). Species and community responses to short-term climate manipulation: Microarthropods in the sub-Antarctic. Austral Ecology, 31, 719-731. Retrieved from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.libaccess.lib.mcmaster.ca/doi/10.1111/j.14429993.2006.01614.x/full Tuite, A.R., Greer, A.L., & Fisman, D.N. (2013). Effect of latitude on the rates of change in incidence of Lyme disease in the United States. Canadian Medical Association, 1, 43-47. Retrieved from http://www.cmajopen.ca/content/1/1/E43.full.pdf+html

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Appendix D:

Weekly Progress Reports

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PROGRESS REPORT 1 POSTED JANUARY 18TH Three Questions: 1. What are the long term and short term effects of climate change on ecosystems structure? (Resistance vs. resilience) ecosystem movement vs. ecosystem modification examples: population dynamics of different bird species due to volcanic activity, changes in population distribution in forest as a result of hurricane activity specific case study used TBD 2. How do marine and terrestrial ecological organisms and populations respond to climate change? PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY AND ADAPTATION - Phenology and Match-Mismatch Theory discontinuity if two trophic levels are triggered by different environmental cues that do not covary in a changing climate. Organisms must adapt to new environmental cues (often not temperature but day length) e.g. Egg laying time in European Great Tits must align with peak in caterpillar abundance later on and therefore changed to respond to different environmental cue - Food Availability may need to make changes to diet based on whats available under new environmental conditions Organisms/species unable to find a new food source will die off e.g. Pikas eating moss in warmer climate CHANGE IN RANGE OF SPECIES Invasive Species climate change shown to favour many invasive species - native species will die off when outcompeted - can bring with them disease e.g. Lyme disease with deer ticks - can increase risk of forest fires e.g. Beetle in western Canada positive feedback 3. How can humans remediate/restore ecosystems in response to the climatic fluctuations? What conservation measures can be taken in response to various climate changes and natural disasters? TERRESTRIAL: migration patterns/migration sanctuaries; intervening when natural processes no longer occurring as nature intended (ongoing debate) AQUATIC: coral bleaching/coral restoration (artificial reef reconstruction) WEEK 2: PROGRESS - Redefined the 3 questions - Created a Facebook group - created a doodle schedule to use for future scheduling of meetings - Learned how to use Poll Everywhere for potential use in presentation - Began considering case studies to incorporate for each question - Discussed with Dr. Kajiura the breakdown of our presentation and the relative format - Allocated jobs - Looked up research at McMaster in the biology department, considered potential interviewees/profs ALLOCATION OF JOBS - Background information research/presentation hook: Emily, Adam - Presentation of the groups unknowns: > Question 1: Shelby > Question 2: Sam > Question 3: Alanna - What needs to be done (Summarized by Michael) To do for next week: Alanna prepare 2 min speaking part for the presentation Research question 3 background information

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 Shelby Sam Emily Adam

provide evidence for question (newspaper article/recent developments in the news) prepare 2 min speaking part for the presentation research information and evidence for the relevance of question 1 decide on strongest case study to use for final presentation prepare 2 min speaking part for the presentation researched responses of ecosystems to climate change found examples of organisms responding to ecosystem change to support each point prepare 2.5 min speaking part for the presentation Research the effects of global climate change on human populations worldwide Research the long and short term effects of climate change and global warming prepare 2.5 min speaking part for the presentation research how global climate change has affected ecological zones worldwide (general) determine a final case study to help cover question three of our topic prepare 1 min speaking part for the presentation gather from other group members what is left to be done provide general timeline for when certain components should be complete by before the final presentation

Michael

All members - brainstorm creative component ideas - ensure group has 20 references - Look into interviewing research profs - possibly contact the Center for Climate Change in BSB WEEK 3: EXPECTATIONS - Think of creative presentation options for next week - Decide who will be in charge of compiling/writing/posting weekly progress reports scheduling meetings organizing references working projection system organizing interviews/research discussions with relevant faculty - Have preliminary research done by Monday - Meeting on Wednesday (during class) Finalize research Put together presentation (powerpoint) Decide how to run the presentation (what information will be provided before and/or during the presentation; practice using the in class presentation system) Discuss creative component incorporation into the presentation - Tentative Meeting Date: Thursday (12:30) > Run through presentation at least twice; work on timing RELATION TO OTHER GROUPS Poverty natural disasters (and climate change) have the potential to exacerbate poverty and therefore reduce the importance of conserving/repairing natural ecological system Pollution pollution one of the causes of climate change (and increased amount of natural disasters) Biotechnology is there a potential use for different bio-technologies in the reducing the effects of climate change and/or catastrophic disturbances in ecological populations

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how can biotechnology be used in remediation of ecological zones which have been adversely affected by climate change or natural disasters Human Health loss of biodiversity (due to climate change) could mean losing potential treatments for diseases e.g. rare plant in ecuador recently found to have chemicals that could potentially treat Hepatitis C and diabetes invasive species warming increases the range of certain organisms which contain disease and could cause a health concern e.g. ticks and lyme disease bacteria grows more quickly at higher temperatures e.g. salmonella flooding caused by heavy rainfall can cause sewage treatment plants to overflow and contaminate crops and water sources Agriculture climate change and natural disasters affect the viability of agricultural practices in certain areas- making some areas more suitable for growing crops, and some areas less suitable look at impacts on crop yields and livestock (include fisheries?) invasive species warming increases the range of certain pests which could be detrimental to crop yields positive feedback as insecticides used have high GHG emissions seawater brought inland by tsunami can flood crops and increase salt concentration in soil, affecting longterm crop yields

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PROGRESS REPORT 2 POSTED JANUARY 25TH Three Questions (Revised question 1 and 2) 1. What are the direct effects of climate change on ecosystem (species, behaviour, range, phenotypic plasticity, etc.)? (SAM) - climate change = change 2. What are the indirect effects of climate change (causing natural disasters) on ecosystem (population/community structure and interactions, succession)? - climate change= increase in natural disasters= change 3. How can humans remediate/restore ecosystems in response to the climatic fluctuations? What conservation measures can be taken in response to various climate changes and natural disasters? WEEK 2: PROGRESS - Monday, January 20 in class meeting Emily and Adam: Meeting Tuesday to compile introduction Shelby, Alanna, Sam: Meet Tuesday, 3:30 in BSB lobby Michael: Construct a universal email to send to potential interviewees - Tuesday, January 21 meetings Adam and Emily: Discussed arrangement of speaking parts; began putting together slides Shelby, Alanna, Sam: revised questions; came up with presentation flow chart - Wednesday, January 22 meetings discussed points from separate meetings decided on StrawPoll (or other internet-based polling site) for use in this presentation instead of PollEverywhere (due to time constraints) came up with poll questions (see below) Poll Questions: (link to be put on avenue -> get class to answer in class on Monday ) 1. When did climate change start? a. 4.6 billion years ago b. at the end of the last glaciation c. at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution d. when automobiles became a common mode of transportation 2. Which of the following are ecosystem responses to climate change? a. northward shift of treeline b. earlier reproduction by Canadian Red Squirrels c. Pikas eating moss d. all of the above 3. In December 1999, Hurricane Lothar swept through France causing widespread destruction of forested areas (Storms et al. 2006). Would this have had a negative impact on the population of Roe Deer in these forests? a. Yes b. No 4. What is the best remediation technique in response to climate induced natural disasters? a. landscape management b. ecosystem defence c. nature reserves d. all of the above Questions to Ask Dr. Kajiura: - do we need to mention specific authors of studies mentioned in presentation? - proof-read email about interviewing professors

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Important dates: Tuesday, January 21: Adam and Emily meet Sam, Shelby and Alanna meet Wednesday, January 22: All research for the presentation to be done Saturday, January 25: Progress report to be posted Everyone have slides finished and posted on google presentation by 6:00pm Monday, January 27 Meet at 12:00 (Adam coming at 12:30) to run through presentation and practice Announce in class for everyone to participate in online poll during class Wednesday, January 29 Proposal presentation! To do: Alanna Put together Powerpoint on Saturday/Sunday Bring necessary cords for presentation practice on Monday Come up with 2 min speaking part Annotate at least 4 references Send Michael to do points Sam Annotate at least 4 references Post slides on google presentation by Saturday Send Michael to do points Shelby Annotate at least 4 references Post slides on google presentation by Saturday Send Alanna flow chart to include for presentation Send Michael to do points Adam Annotate at least 4 references Post slides on google presentation by Saturday Emily Annotate at least 4 references Post slides on google presentation by Saturday Michael Proofread email for profs Compile to do part of the presentation In charge of running the online Poll on Monday (post link on avenue)

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PROGRESS REPORT 3 POSTED JANUARY 31ST Monday January 27th Meeting: - checked over poll questions and posted poll questions on avenue - look up possibilities for creating website - decided on wix.com - decided on pages to include in website - background - climate change - natural disasters - human action - references - progress reports - about us - created gmail account for easy communication between other groups when writing integrated reports - decided to distribute business cards to class giving them email address and link to website - decided on template for business cards - decided on hurricane logo and found one online to be included on business cards and website Monday in Class: - announced to class about completing poll questions - went around before the end of class to encourage participation in poll - completed business cards to be printed - continued work on homepage and setup of website TO DO FOR TUESDAY MEETING ALL - complete writeup for your section of the website - complete annotated references and post onto annotated bibliography google doc - add writeup, bio and references onto website - have your part of the presentation prepared for Tuesday night runthrough Tuesday Jan 28, Shelby and Alanna Meeting: - inquired at Titles about cardstock paper to print business cards on - unsuccessful - inquired at the Underground about printing off business cards - printed off sheets of business cards at the Underground - cut individual cards Tuesday Jan. 28 Meeting, Everyone: - checked over and formatted annotated bibliography - posted annotated bibliography onto website and onto avenue - added screenshots of completed poll results into slides - fixed citations and some information on the slides - double-checked over powerpoint slides and emailed to Emily - timed run-through and found that presentation was too long - discussed what could be cut from presentation in order to keep under 12 minutes - discussed wardrobe for presentation TO DO FOR WEDNESDAY PRESENTATION: ALL - memorise and go over your part of presentation - maintain 2 minute limit of information - read over supplementary information posted by other groups presentations IMPORTANT DATES: - Constructive criticism due Feb 10th TO DO: - be sporadically checking email account and avenue - be prepared with ideas to complete constructive criticism during Mondays class - discuss next steps during Mondays class - Edit website content with any new information that pertains to the topics(updated progress report)

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- Watch video of presentation and examine for areas of improvement in future presentations. - Email potential profs for interviews ASAP, look into who needs to attend (if the research pertains to their topic) - Redistribute group role in terms of final integrated report and final presentation email: ecoawarecc@gmail.com website: http://ecoawarecc.wix.com/climate-consultants

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PROGRESS REPORT 4 POSTED FEBRUARY 8TH Monday February 3rd in class: Set time and date of next meeting (February 6th at 12:30pm) Sandwich model activity during class Completed within group criticism forms (not for marks) Wednesday February 5th in class: divided up work for feedback forms and questions to ask other groups and worked on this emailed Dr. Graham Scott to ask if hes available for an interview discussed the idea of including interviews and mock weather forecast in our integrated presentation responded to Graham Scotts email to set up meeting time checked EACC email no mail Completed criticisms for Sustainable squirrels (Shelby, Alanna) Completed criticisms for Youre Infected (Sa m, Emily) Came up with 2 questions each to be posted on their Q/A page (Adam, Michael) TO DO BEFORE THURSDAY MEETING: finish feedback forms and questions for other groups have brainstormed potential ways to integrate other groups i nformation Thursday February 6th meeting: decided to incorporate clips of experts from their field site Came up with ways to integrate other group information divided up who is focusing on which integration and how their topics relate

determine what is the next step for each question we are addressing Discussed who will be presenting during final presentation and who will be doing the video clips (to be determined final organization/order and who will be involved) Important Dates: Answer questions on avenue Q&A by Sunday, Feb 9 afternoon (Alanna, Sam, Adam, Michael) Input how well the groups answered the questions Sunday, Feb 9 (Shelby, Emily) Constructive Feedback due Feb 10 print 3 copies of each (Alanna: Sunday Night)

Feedback of how useful criticism was due Wed, Feb 12 Meeting with Kajura Web, Feb 12 in class TO DO: Sam Respond to Graham Scotts email/set up a time and date for interview Respond to second question on discussion board Q/A look further into first question and integration with From the Ground Up and Youre Infected Emily Research into the relationship between climate change and increased flooding for the integration of Waste Not Want Not Include how well the group answered our questions for Youre Infected Research additional ways of integration of Waste Not Want Nots topic with our own. Michael Answer one question posted on the discussion board Research ways to integrate with Sustainable Squirrels and Biotech Shelby Post progress report before Saturday at 4pm Include how well the group answered our questions for Sustainable Squirrels organize information to be presented on indirect effects of climate change for final presentation complete more research on this if necessary

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research into integration with Getting There for presentation in relationship to the cutting of mangroves (which are a natural protection from natural disasters affecting coastal areas) in impoverished areas and the effects of the severity of natural disaster strikes in these areas watch the remaining presentation videos to come up with further integration ideas for the report Adam Answer one of the questions posted on the discussion board Research further into the first question so as to integrate with From the Ground Up and Youre Infected Create questions to post to Sustainable Squirrels and Youre Infected discussion board Alanna Answer first question on discussion board Q/A Print 3 copies each of constructive criticisms Sunday Night Research 3rd question more if necessary. Organize information to be presented on remediation techniques Integrate Sustainable Squirrels and Biotech information. Show relation to our topic Corridors and habitecture *possibly relate this to the marine ecosystems...networked marine protected areas require corridors. Also, terrestrial land management policies geared towards landscape heterogeneity to reduce fire hazard terrestrial and marine GMO crops: drought resistant and salt resistant plants introduced to crops terrestrial Also look into the potential of integrating Getting There: ecosystem based defense approach to flooding (mangroves) interface

EVERYONE Watch our proposal presentation/look at things we could improve Go over other groups criticism of our proposal presentation Answer how helpful the criticism was (due Wednesday)

Start thinking about integrated report (look at other groups examples) email: ecoawarecc@gmail.com website: http://ecoawarecc.wix.com/climate-consultants

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PROGRESS REPORT 5 POSTED FEBRUARY 17TH Monday, February 10th in class Handed in constructive criticism of Sustainable Squirrels and Youre Infected Received constructive criticism from Waste Not Want Not and From the Ground Up Spoke to respective groups about our criticism and asked questions to clarify some of their comments Compared similarities between each criticism and discussed parts we agreed with and how they could be incorporated into our final report TO DO BEFORE WEDNESDAY MEETING IN CLASS Adam: complete initial assessment of the groups constructive criticisms to be reviewed by rest of group on Wednesday Sam and Emily: review Dr. Graham Scotts relevant research paper on the topic of interest Wednesday, February 12th in class: Shelby, Alanna, Adam and Michael: reviewed constructive criticisms from other groups and completed our assessment of the usefulness of their comments. Sam and Emily: finalized questions for Dr. Graham Scott interview at 3:30 Edited interview questions as an entire group. Came up with basic timeline for completion of components for final presentation Checked EACC email - no mail Adam uploaded questions to the website under a new tab: FAQ Met with Kajura to discuss her feedback/constructive criticism of our presentation Wednesday, February 12th: Sam and Emily Dr. Scott Interview: Voice recorded interview to possibly include in our final presentation IMPORTANT DATES Monday February 24th o Come up with ideas for filming. o Construct a preliminary schedule for filming for each of the chosen dates o Discuss who will be featured in the videos o Confirm presenters for final presentation Wednesday February 26th o All respective research expected to be done o Combine research and integration to other groups individual group members completed over reading week o Discuss whether we will be using PowerPoint or Prezi Saturday March 1st and Sunday March 2nd o Film clips to be incorporated in final presentation Wednesday March 5th o Have all videos edited o Have all slides completed for the final presentation (Preliminary, black and white, arial font, relevant images and references) Saturday March 8th o Compile final powerpoint o Post on the fb group to be reviewed by presenters o People who arent presenting update website Sunday March 9th o Edit final powerpoint o Get together to practice Wednesday March 12th o Final presentation! TO DO OVER READING WEEK: Shelby Organize information to be presented on indirect effects of climate change for final presentation Complete more research on this if necessary

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Alanna Finalize research for third question to be covered in final presentation - further developments, why we chose to ask this question, any answers found that were not discussed during proposal presentation, etc. Research integration of sustainable squirrels into final presentation (as it relates to the third questions) Look into links between Getting There and the third question of our presentation. Discuss with Shelby relevance to each topic and potential to integrate to both questions (2 and 3) without too much overlap (i.e. use of mangroves as an ecosystem based defense remediation strategy) Research integration of Biotech to the third question of human remediation strategi es. Convene with Michael current research directions Investigate possibility of incorporating local examples and organizations to the final presentation as suggested by Dr. Kajiura Sam Research link between From the Ground Up and climate change look into the effect of temperature on crop yields, the effect of temperature on pest range and livestock and greenhouse gases Potentially contact From the Ground Up to discuss integration Review voice clip of Dr. Scott and highlight sections relevant to final presentation and that should be included in presentation Edit voice clip on iMovie Do further research on climate change and how it impacts ecosystems how to predict how species will respond as well as the community as a whole by looking at phenotypic plasticity, which species are most likely to respond, long-term how populations adapt and which are most likely to survive (genetics) Investigate what certain organizations are doing to minimize the impact of climate change on different species Make rough slides before Wednesday February 26th Emily Research into the integration between our topic and Waste Not, Want Not look into the relationship of global warming and the increase of floods, and the risk posed by this on waste management. Review the voice clips of the interview with Dr. Scott for relevant information to include in the second presentation Prepare slides for the Final presentation Adam Research the integration of our topic with team Youre Infected - increasing species ranges cause pests to move into new niches, these pests carry disease and help disease spread Prepare slides for final presentation Start preparing all research for final integrated report Michael Research integration of our third question with Biotech Discuss possible r esearch direction with Alanna towards captive-bred Atlantic salmon being released intentionally and unintentionally into the wild Complete research for final presentation Prepare slides for final presentation Everyone Complete all research for final presentation Complete basic outline of important information to be presented in each individual area of research for the final presentation Think about video clip ideas/structure Update their information on website

Research into integration with Getting There for presentation in relationship to the cutting of mangroves (which are a natural protection from natural disasters affecting coastal areas) in impoverished areas and the effects of the severity of natural disaster strikes in these areas Be collecting any research for potential integration to be used for progress report edit references on website, correcting small mistakes pointed out by Dr. Kajiura Add Integration tab to website (Coming Soon) Look into local organisation suggested to us by Dr. Kajiura

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PROGRESS REPORT 6 POSTED MARCH 1ST Monday, February 24th In class: Found out we can have two screens by renting projector from library (one for the videos, one for the presentation) Confirmed research to be done for Wednesday 14 minute presentation (asked for 2 min extra) o 4 minute each topic o 1.5 min video integrations x 3 o 2.5 for each question/integration x 3 o 2 min for intro and conclusion1 video for each topic (3 people not presenting) voice clip for Sams part which will be playing on second screenInstead of having the website on the second screen (second screen strictly for playing videos) provide screen shots on a handout Handout o website screenshots o simple diagram (only including discussed integrations) o complex diagram (with all integrations) What is our position on the questions AND discuss integration (rather than having our topic as the focus, have each group clearly identified) Make up a table or flow chart (dont cover all integrations during presentation, wont likely have time) Agreed on using powerpoint Preliminary flow chart used throughout presentation, show complex flow chart at end (provide it in table form in a handout) o Alanna will conclude the presentation with the chart and give an example of the other connections with mangroves Wednesday, February 26th in class Audience engagement??? Discussed updates to the website page with integration (just what is discussed during the presentation) Prezi playing on second projector throughout presentation Embed videos on powerpoint Discussed parts to be filmed on Friday and how to make them more engaging/ entertaining (discussed whether editing with green-screen technology is possible) Friday, February 28th, 4:30 Meeting Decided to use only one screen and not to use Prezi for schematic diagram to avoid overwhelming classmates during presentation and to avoid any technical difficulties that may occur while presenting Read through and edited all three scripts (Michael, Emily and Adam) Decided on final filming formats (Michael as farmer, Emily in rainstorm, Adam as Doctor) Filmed multiple takes of each clip in order to have sufficient film for editing (Michael and Emily in front of greenscreen in BSB room, Adam in MDCL/Hospital hallway) IMPORTANT DATES Friday February 28th o Sam bring labcoat o Adam bring scrub caps o people in films come with their parts Adam: Film in hospital (by MDCL bridge) Emily: Spencer Creek Trail (switched to green-screen) Michael: labs in MDCL, 4th floor (switched to green-screen) Wednesday March 5th o Have all videos edited o Have all slides completed for the final presentation (Preliminary, black and white, arial font, relevant images and references)

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TO DO Michael Adam Sam Emily Shelby Alanna

Saturday March 8th o Compile final powerpoint o Post on the fb group to be reviewed by presenters o People who arent presenting update website Sunday March 9th o Edit final powerpoint o Get together to practice Wednesday March 12th o Final presentation!

edit both my own and Emilies film clips using green screen technology (by Wednesday) add detailed information about integration section onto website complete annotated bibliography and add to website as well edit my film clip using footage of multiple takes and voice recording (by Friday) add more detailed information about integration onto website complete annotated bibliography and add to website References page add detailed information about question 1 and integration to respective pages on the website complete annotated bibliography and add to website finish slideswrite script for final presentation Write script for Friday February 28th, so part for the presentation can be filmed Finish slides for the final presentation Plan Shelbys introduction to the video segment add information from Integration research to website finish editing write-up to be included on website website re-edit this write up, reducing detail in order to make it an appropriate length for final presentation (2.5 minutes) think about best way to introduce and conclude the presentation complete rough slides to be used for final presentation add information to website (both under Natural Disasters tab and under Integration tab) finish and post weekly update complete annotated bibliography (also to be added to website) finish speaking part (include integration with sustainable squirrels and answer to third question) compile PowerPoint presentation complete flow chart diagram and animations add information to website (including this weeks progress report) complete annotated bibliography (also to be added to website)

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PROGRESS REPORT 7 POSTED MARCH 8TH Monday, March 3 in Class: Discussed logistics of final powerpoint slides (order, screen shots, inclusion of videos) edited videos to be ready for Wednesday (with the exception of Adam, will have video edited by Friday, March 7) Began putting together presentation handoutWent through integration ideas with other groups Integration written on board: o Youre Infected: increased pest range through climate change o Sustainable Squirrels: clear cutting-> wildfires hydroelectric dams -> flooding protected areas -> corridors o Getting There: cutting of mangroves in impoverished villages exacerbates effect of storms o From the Ground Up: pests increase in range, leading to greater pesticide usecattle emissions o Waste Not, Want Not effect of flooding on waste management o Biotech: drought resistant crops Wednesday, March 5 in Class: Looked over first two edited videos Discussed introduction and conclusion Discussed structure of presentation with Dr. Kajiura Tested out audio on computer with help from Emily Set timeline for the rest of the week Discussed adding comments section to website and continuing to add to both the integration and other tabs related to the three questions IMPORTANT DATES Saturday March 8th Compile final powerpoint, post on the fb group to be reviewed by presenters Monday March 10th Edit final powerpoint (ensure all screenshots of the website are included) Get together to practice in the evening Update website and bibliography Wednesday March 12th Final presentation! Wednesday March 26th rough draft of integrated report completed to allow for one week to edit and print final copy TO DO: Shelby edit script to match what was discussed in class cut it down to 2:30 practice presenting slides done by Saturday March 8th website done by Monday March 10th add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th meet Alanna on Friday March 7th in classroom to test audio on final edited video ensure references are annotated Alanna slides done by Saturday March 8th Complete presentation o include screen shots

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o ensure all animations work website done by Monday March 10th add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th meet Shelby and Adam on Friday March 7th in classroom to test audio on final edited video test audio in the classroom on Monday ensure references are annotated Finish script, 2:30 min Finish concluding remarks for the presentation Sam slides done by Saturday March 8th website done by Monday March 10th add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th ensure references are annotated practice part for presentation discuss with From the Ground Up for integration Emily slides done by Saturday March 8th website done by Monday March 10th add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th ensure references are annotated Adam slides done by Saturday March 8th website done by Monday March 10th (including looking into adding comments section) add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th edit video for final presentation ensure references are annotated Michael slides done by Saturday March 8th website done by Monday March 10th add information to handout for integration by Monday March 10th ensure references are annotated Handout-diagram explained in chart email: ecoawarecc@gmail.comwebsite: http://ecoawarecc.wix.com/climateconsultants

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PROGRESS REPORT 8 POSTED MARCH 15TH Monday in Class: checked order of integration on website to match presentation/handout checked that everything on the website has been updated, references page, adding comments section, checking uniformity gave handout to Dr. Kajiura to make copies for Wednesday wrote introduction and conclusion for final presentation Alanna, Shelby and Sam went over slides o chose screen-shots to include on slides o double-checked audio for Adams video discussed jobs for integrated report so those not presenting can begin working on there parts Worked on group member assessment to be handed in the day of our presentation chose to remove screenshots from handout Monday Night Meeting (Sam, Shelby, Alanna, Adam): shared final product of handouts from Dr. Kajiura read over scripts together went through logistics of slide transitions triple checked computer system in our class (audio and video) went through presentation multiple times, taking note of the individual timing of each part of the presentation and cutting where necessary discussed wardrobe options for Wednesday Wednesday Before Class: planned to meet to run through presentation o did not happen due to school being closed Wednesday In- Class: Would have presented and observed other groups presentations. University closed at 11:30 IMPORTANT DATES Wednesday March 19th Final presentation! Wednesday March 26th rough draft of integrated report completed to allow for one week to edit and print final copy TO DO: schedule time to get together to organize timeline for the writing of the integrated report Shelby complete group evaluation form to bring to classcontinue to practice part for final presentation remember to bring photocopied handouts to class for presentation write rough draft of integrated report for synthesis of second question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with team Getting There Alanna complete group evaluation form to bring to class remember to bring HDMI cord to connect to presentation system continue to practice part for final presentation write rough draft of integrated report for synthesis of third question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Sustainable Squirrels Sam complete group evaluation form to bring to class continue to practice part for final presentation write rough draft of integrate report for synthesis of first question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with team From the Ground Up Emily be prepared to take notes on groups for which constructive criticism needs to be done write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Waste Not Want Not

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 Adam

think about format and organization of final report complete group evaluation form to bring to class be prepared to take notes on groups for which constructive criticism needs to be done write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Youre Infectedthink about format and organization of final report

Michael in charge of ensuring references on website are updated to proper format complete group evaluation form to bring to classbe prepared to take notes on groups for which constructive criticism needs to be done write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Team Biotech think about format and organization of final report All Group Members Adam, Michael, Emily start to construct general organization of integrated report (Acknowledgements, table of contents, appendix, references, etc.) look up ways to present the integrated report ( binder, bound booklet, etc.) ensure all references on website are in proper format/are all included somewhere on the website continue to check email for Eco-AwareCC

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PROGRESS REPORT 9 POSTED MARCH 22ND Monday in Class: handed in group evaluation forms looked through examples of last years integrated reports to get a sense of what sections should be included as well as the length of each section discussed some clarifications with Emily and Dr. Kajiura split up topics among group members to write everybody to include their own appendixes, references, etc. to be compiled at a later date discussed timeline for integrated report writing looked into potential dates for group editing sessions Wednesday in Class: completed our final presentation! enjoyed other groups presentations gave external hard-drive to Dr. Kajiura to get copy of final presentation videos IMPORTANT DATES: Wednesday March 26th rough draft of integrated report completed to allow for one week to edit and print final copy potential night editing session Friday March 28th group editing session that night Sunday March 30th group editing session afternoon/nightWednesday April 2ndIntegrated Report Due! TO DO: Shelby write rough draft of integrated report for synthesis of second question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with team Getting There Alanna write rough draft of integrated report for synthesis of third question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Sustainable Squirrels Post most recent progress report on the website Upload pdf of presentation to avenue discussion board Post website reminder of each groups discussion forum Sam write rough draft of integrated report for synthesis of first question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with team From the Ground Up Emily write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Waste Not Want Not write rough draft of integrated report section on forest fire for first question think about format and organization of final report Adam write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Youre Infected think about format and organization of final report Michael in charge of ensuring references on website are updated to proper format write rough draft of integrated report section on landslides for first question write rough draft of integrated report for integration with Team Biotechthink about format and organization of final report All group members Adam, Michael, Emily start to construct general organization of integrated report (Acknowledgements, table of contents, appendix, references, etc.). Look up ways to present the integrated report (printing options to be put in binder)

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 Ensure all references on website are in proper format/are all included somewhere on the website continue to check email for Eco-AwareCC PROGRESS REPORT 10 POSTED MARCH 28TH Monday in Class: discussed final presentations with each group shared final presentation videos with other group members to aid in integration portion of final integrated report looked through examples of last years integrated reports to get a sense of what sections should be included as well as the length of each section discussed timeline for integrated report writing

Wednesday in Class: discussed final presentation and grade with Dr. Kajiura discussed and planned overall organization of final integrated report i.e. sections to include and which order they will be compiled in discussed use of Appendix with Emily as well as what needs to be included in these Appendixes discussed logistics of writing and editing integrated report (usb, vs. google doc)

Wednesday Afternoon (Shelby and Alanna): visited the Underground to enquire about cost of printing report as well as different printing options and paper types

Wednesday Night Meeting (Sam, Michael, Shelby, Alanna): discussed portions of integrated report that have already been written decided on who will be editing which section (for those that have already written majority of their parts) o Sam to edit Michaels Biotech Integration portion o Shelby to edit Sams and Adams Question 1 section o Michael to edit Shelbys Question 2 section (and add his part to it) o Discussed flow of portions that are to be compiled together

Friday Night: group meeting at 4:30 pm editing individual parts start compiling parts for the appendix start compiling the final report document discuss the outline and placement of different aspects of the report

IMPORTANT DATES: Sunday March 30th group editing session afternoon/night

Wednesday April 2nd Integrated Report Due!

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TO DO: Shelby Sam Michael Adam Alanna Emily compile material for the appendix future directions section for Waste Not Want Not integration send integration portion of report to Adam edit integration of Youre Infected from Adam edit Alannas integration portion of the final report edit Waste Not, Want Not Integration for final report add future directions to Youre Infected integration finish compiling constructive criticisms for final integrated report send Shelby Emilys edited section about forest fires add subtitles to question 1 section add future directions to Agriculture integration reread Sams edit of Poverty Integration input Michael and Emilys additions to the question two synthesis

All group members: Ensure all references on website are in proper format/are all included somewhere on the website continue to check email for Eco-AwareCC as well as comments section of website Show up prepared for an editing party on Sunday to finish compiling the Integrated Report.

email: ecoawarecc@gmail.com website: http://ecoawarecc.wix.com/climate-consultants

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Appendix E:

Constructive Criticisms from Proposal Presentation

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WINTER 2014 BIOLOGY 4A03 ADVANCED TOPICS IN ECOLOGY CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK ASSIGNMENT Completed by: _From the Ground Up______________________ Date: ___Feb 5 2014____ Please submit TWO typed copies of your constructive feedback one for Dr. Kajiura & one for your peers. CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM for: Eco-Aware Climate Consultants_ Date of Presentation: Jan. 28 2014 Presentation Topic: Ecological Impact of Climate Change SUMMARY OF THE PRESENTATIONS TOPICS & FORMAT Introduction/Background Question 1: Indirect effects of climate change? Question 2: Direct effects of climate change? Question 3: What measures can humans take to help ecosystems? They used case studies, scholarly articles, and their own poll to emphasize the importance of their topic. Needed more connection between questions better flow. 0.75 / 1 mark THREE STRENGTHS 1. The way that your poll tied into your research questions gave us a picture of how well the class previously understood the topic 0.5 / 0.5 mark 2. Your PowerPoint was very visually appealing, nice use of graphs and images. Accompanied with good explanations 0.5 / 0.5 mark 3. Website has relevant background information. Its really well designed. Its a huge attribut e and helps the other groups 0.5 / 0.5 mark THREE AREAS for IMPROVEMENT 1. The long line of people waiting to present was distracting. It looked unprofessional. 0.25 / 0.5 mark 2. There were many word fillers (um and like). Make sure that you memorize your material so you dont need word fillers or clipboards/ cue cards. 0.25/ 0.5 mark 3. Make sure you clearly define all terms, ex. phenology, as people in the class come from different backgrounds. 0.25 / 0.5 mark ABILITY TO ENGAGE AUDIENCE Poll was very engaging; it brought the class opinions into your presentation. Voices were projected. Great ability to engage the audience.

1 / 1 mark

ABILITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS You were very thorough when researching and answering questions. It was very impressive! The examples you used were informative and very useful. Every new concept that you introduced was explained in your response. Great job! 2 / 2 marks THREE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE THE PRESENTATION 1. To make your presentation run more smoothly try to practice in front of friends and family. This will help you memorize your section of the presentation and minimize your word fillers. If you do not feel comfortable presenting dont feel pressured to present. Some presenters were already great at this already while others needed improvement. Try to showcase the strengths of every group member. 0.5 / 1 mark 2. Re-think the way that you organize presenters. Wed suggest splitting people up onto either side of the PowerPoint. Also when you are not presenting, people are still looking at you - be aware of your body language at all times. We noticed that some group members appeared bored or were leaning on the blackboard. Try to remain engaged with the entire presentation. 0.75 / 1 mark 3. Instead of having some slides reiterate what you say, type a general summary point onto the slide. This will make your presentation easier to follow and de-clutter your slides. The reason why we say this is because it was overwhelming to read and listen simultaneously. 0.75 / 1 mark

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TOTAL = 8 / 10 MARKS 2014 Copyright L. Kajiura Department of Biology, McMaster University WINTER 2014 BIOLOGY 4A03 ADVANCED TOPICS IN ECOLOGY CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK ASSIGNMENT Completed by: Waste Not, Want Not Date: Feb 5, 2014 Please submit TWO typed copies of your constructive feedback one for Dr. Kajiura & one for your peers. CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM for: Eco Aware Date of Presentation: January 29th, 2014 Presentation Topic: Climate Change & Natural Disasters SUMMARY OF THE PRESENTATIONS TOPICS & FORMAT Concise and professional presentation of topic regarding climate change and its effect on natural disasters. They also discussed the impact of these natural disasters (ex. Deer case study). THREE STRENGTHS THREE AREAS for IMPROVEMENT 1. Good flow of presentation (organized, concise, 1. More engaging body language and presentation skills professional appearance) 2. Increase interactive and A/V component of 2. Good choice in case studies (keeps listeners engaged, relatable) presentation 3. Website, e-mail address, online poll and business cards 3. Try to focus on lesser-known information, go more were a creative component of their presentation in-depth ABILITY TO ENGAGE AUDIENCE Most voices projected well, however not all presenters seemed to engage with the audience. Survey results presented throughout the presentation was a creative way to engage the audience in their topic. Presenters seemed to be regurgitating definitions and technical terms rather than focusing on their insights and case studies. ABILITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS Your groups answers to our inquiries were very intriguing and well written. The refer ences you cited within your answers were valid and made your answers more significant and relevant. Not only were our questions answered, but you also provided some facts that allowed the reader to think and question. For question 2, we were looking for a little more information on remediation protocols for other countries so they could be compared to Canada. Overall, you definitely made us believe that your group is very critical and analytical towards your topic, and you are knowledgeable about the details and facts associated with your topic. THREE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE THE PRESENTATION 1. Slides were very concise and professional in appearance. Good use of highlighting important information on a large table. Good use of PowerPoint features. When not presenting, group members could appear more engaged towards the presenter. Do not appear bored, or look away from the presenter. This gives the audience more of a feel that everyone in the group is engaged in not only their own efforts but those of the entire group. Orient yourselves towards the presenter, try to smile more, seem more enthusiastic even when not presenting. Try not to cross your arms, makes you seem closed off. Proper posture (ex. standing up straight, not fidgeting, no crossing legs or leaning over). Organize consistent group attire. Not necessarily professional clothing, but more of a cohesive appearance (ex. Same colour clothing). No hats, it was a bit distracting. Enunciate all your words, project voices more. Less reading off cue cards. This will help make you seem more confident in what you are telling us. Record yourselves presenting, go over the recording/give to a friend to listen to critique. Make sure to practice regularly to ensure the presentation does not go over the allotted time. 2. The website and e-mail address for the group was creative. There was great application of poll results during the presentation. We thought that the group did not go into detail or elaborate on how to use them and what you hoped for us to learn from them. Our question to you is what do you plan on using the e-mail for (ex. Contacting external sources for interviews, medium for other groups to ask questions, etc.)? We suggest that announcements on Avenue to Learn or in-class about how the website and email would be used and/or what types of information can we find, would make your creative components more powerful and applicable to your presentation. 3. We thought that the break down of ideas and concepts was great. There was attention shifted towards background and technical terminology. One area of improvement for this aspect of your presentation is to allocate more time and effort towards your actual questions and insights. There was some topics discussed that was common Ecology content, and did not require in-depth explanations. We suggest that the use of supplementary materials dedicated to background information, and general concepts/definitions can keep the presentation more concise and timely towards your groups research q uestions and

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insights. This would also keep the audience more engaged with your presentations content, and allow for more thought-provoking opportunities.

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2014 Copyright L. Kajiura Department of Biology, McMaster University WINTER 2014 BIOLOGY 4A03 ADVANCED TOPICS IN ECOLOGY CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK ASSIGNMENT Completed by: Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Date: 09/02/2014 Please submit TWO typed copies of your constructive feedback one for Dr. Kajiura & one for your peers. CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM for: Sustainable squirrels Date of Presentation: 29/01/2014 Presentation Topic: Sustainability of Anthropogenic Landscape Alterations SUMMARY OF THE PRESENTATIONS TOPICS & FORMAT The presenters introduced relevant terms regarding habitat fragmentation and destruction. They addressed their 3 questions on the topic before discussing urban sprawl including the negative effects and sustainable solutions to urbanization. The rest of the presentation included the introduction of forestry techniques in Canada as well as surfacing mining as different anthropogenic activities. The group members ensured solutions and sustainable practices were applied to each of the previously mentioned subtopics before concluding with their proposed next steps. 0.75 / 1 mark THREE STRENGTHS THREE AREAS for IMPROVEMENT 1. The presenters were well prepared for their parts 1. There was more information than necessary on the which increased their confidence during the presentation. slides. This lead to some confusion during the The presentation seemed well rehearsed which increased presentation as the audience tried to follow along with the successfulness of the proposal. 0.5 / 0.5 mark the slides and the presenters. 0.4/ 0.5 mark 2. The presenters provided interesting and relevant 2. In relation to how well the 3 questions were subtopics that the audience could understand. A wide addressed, the organization of the presentation led to variety and coverage of topics resulted in a very some confusion as to how the subtopics were related to informative presentation. This enabled the audience to be each of the questions. After reviewing the presentation a exposed to the current knowledge of anthropogenic few times it became more obvious how each subtopic influences and sustainable solutions. 0.45 / 0.5 mark was incorporated to each question. However it still 3. All groups members were equally involved in lacked definitive clarity since there was no obvious presenting the information which showed the successful factor during the presentation which indicated what collaboration of their research. 0.45/ 0.5 mark question was being addressed. 0.35/ 0.5 mark 3. The transition between slides in terms of content as well as the transition to different group members was lacking fluidity. Group members seemed to jump into their topics following the end of the previous speaker without addressing how the current topic related to the previously presented information and the 3 questions 0.4/ 0.5 mark ABILITY TO ENGAGE AUDIENCE The presenters spoke very clearly and directly to the audience. They successfully made eye contact with the entire classroom which helped keep the audience engaged. The level of enthusiasm could have been slightly higher to help capture the audiences attention more and keep them interested in what each person was talking about. Also, the use of preliminary information in the form of an online pamphlet was useful in communicating important information that was otherwise unable to be included during the presentation. A great opportunity for audience engagement was the poll results from a survey done before the presentation. Engagement could have been facilitated better however in relating how the results to this poll were related to the information being presented. 0.8 / 1 mark ABILITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS The sustainable squirrels were able to adequately answer questions regarding sustainable expansion of cities into agricultural areas as well as fire occurrence in natural versus "monocultured" forests. This may have required completing additional research, which will ultimately be beneficial for their final presentation and integrated report. Their ability to answer in depth questions regarding their topic shows that they have researched efficiently and are sufficiently well-informed, beyond the introductory information presented in their presentation. 1.5/ 2 marks

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THREE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE THE PRESENTATION 1. Each member of the group did an excellent job presenting their information clearly and confidently, however, to avoid abrupt transitions between presenters it might be better to incorporate transition/connecting sentences at the end or beginning of each group members section. Furthermore, each presenters speaking role should be more distinct to avoid back-and-forth confusion. In other words, try to structure the presentation so members have distinct roles whether they strictly introduce or conclude the presentation. 0.7 / 1 mark 2. The subtopics chosen describing different causes of anthropogenic landscape alterations (urbanization, forestry, industrial activities and tourism) were very interesting and covered a broad spectrum of interests. However, to provide more clarity on how the information presented relates to the three questions presented, it might be helpful to include a small schematic diagram on each slide representing this relationship. This will allow the audience to follow along and provide a more effective means of structuring the presentation. 0.7 / 1 mark 3. The slides presented were very neat and organised. However, in order to prevent having more information than necessary on the slides, it could be beneficial for each group member to individually present to friends or family not involved in the presentation. This way they could provide feedback on their perception of the appropriateness of the amount of information presented on the slides. 0.8 / 1 mark TOTAL = 7.8 / 10 MARKS 2014 Copyright L. Kajiura Department of Biology, McMaster University

WINTER 2014 BIOLOGY 4A03 ADVANCED TOPICS IN ECOLOGY CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK ASSIGNMENT Completed by: The Eco-Aware Climate Consultants . Date: February 10, 2014 . Please submit TWO typed copies of your constructive feedback one for Dr. Kajiura & one for your peers. CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM for: _Youre Infected ______ Date of Presentation: January 29, 2014___ Presentation Topic: Human Health and Ecology . SUMMARY OF THE PRESENTATIONS TOPICS & FORMAT The group explored the effect of influenza (specifically H1N1 strain) on the human population. They briefly discussed the history and evolution of the H1N1 virus and its relevance to the human population. Treatments (specifically vaccines) were explored as an option for prevention. The ecological factors of drug disposal were mentioned and the effects that improper disposal has on the environment. Lastly, the group covered the socioeconomic impacts of influenza as well as the implemented policies and procedures. 0.8 / 1 mark THREE STRENGTHS THREE AREAS for IMPROVEMENT 1. Inclusion of supplementary material (voice clip) 1. Focus on the ecological impact should be stressed added to the presentation 0.5/ more than the socioeconomic impacts. I.e. impacts on food and water sources 0.4/ 0.5 mark 0.5 mark 2. Use of the skit was good but the side-talk about the basketball distracted from the actual information of the 2. Overall presentation layout (town council meeting) presentation. 0.2/ 0.5 mark was easy to follow. Additionally, having only 3 members present made it easy to follow. 0.45/ 0.5 mark 3. Learn proper pronunciation for scientific words in the 0.45/ 0.5 mark 3. All members spoke clearly and knew what they were presentation. talking about 0.5/ 0.5 mark 4. The coverage of the evolution of the influenza virus and its ability to mutate was well done, allowing for everyone to fully understand its background ABILITY TO ENGAGE AUDIENCE The group had a strong ability to communicate with the audience and get their points across. They all had their parts memorized and were able to make good eye contact. They showed enthusiasm while presenting, making it more interesting to follow along. 0.9 / 1 mark ABILITY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS Youre Infected were able to answer our questions thoroughly, using examples and explaining protocols currently in place for dealing with influenza pandemics. The group also explains the selection process of vaccines that is executed each year. Both questions showed that the groups completed additional research to answer the given

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questions. Their ability to provide sufficient answers to their topic showed that the group was knowledgeable and well researched. 1.8/ 2 marks THREE SPECIFIC SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE THE PRESENTATION 1. Focus on the ecological impact should be stressed more than the socioeconomic impacts. Instead of focusing on the changes in human behavior due to an influenza outbreak, the focus should be laid on the response of the surrounding ecosystems. You could also explore the impact of the influenza strains specifically on both the pig and duck populations (an increase in the H1N1 virus in the human population and how this affects the pig population). Lastly, go into more detail on the specific impacts of improper disposal of vaccines on the surrounding ecosystems. 0.8/ 1 mark 2. We suggest examining where the resources for our medication are coming from. As a large portion of our medication is extracted from plants within tropical regions, deforestation and over-extraction could pose a threat to our national health. It would be interesting to cover which drugs have been used for major epidemics in the past and the plants they have been extracted from. E.g. the Western Yew and chemotherapy treatments 0.7/ 1 mark 3. Perhaps if youre going to encourage the flu shot, it would be beneficial to go into the potential risks associated with the vaccine. 0.7/ 1 mark TOTAL = 8.2 / 10 MARKS

2014 Copyright L. Kajiura Department of Biology, McMaster University

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Appendix F:

Eco-Aware Climate Consultants Group Organization Methods

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Organization Methods Scheduling Management

Group Facebook Page

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Appendix G:

Homepage Screen Shots of Websites Used

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ABARES. (n.d). Reducing nitrous oxide emissions. Retrieved from: http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/~/media/Documents/Animals%20feed%20and%20envi ronment/Environment/Climate-tool-kit/Research/reducing-nitrous-oxide-emmisions.pdf

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Bradford, A. (Producer), & Hunka, R. (Director). (2013). Ticked Off: The Mystery of Lyme Disease [Video file]. CBC News. Retrieved from: http://www.cbc.ca/natureofthings/episodes/ticked-off-the-mystery-of-lyme-disease

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Canadian Dam Association (2013). Home. Retrieved from: http://www.imis100ca1.ca/cda

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Dahlman, L. (2009) Climate Change: Global Temperature. Understanding Climate. Retrieved from: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-changeglobal-temperature

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Davis, N. (2013) What role for marine protected areas in a future of climatic change. Biodiversity of British Columbia. Lab for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University of British Columbia. Retrieved from: http://www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/MarineProtectedAreasUnderClimateChange.html

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Frank, B. (2013). The Health Effects of Hurricane Katrina. Geology and Human Health. Retrieved from: http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/health/case_studies/hurricane_Katrina.html

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Harper, J. (2011, Aug. 23). Are Category 6 Hurricanes Coming Soon? Sci. Am. Retrieved from: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-category-6-hurricanes-coming/

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International Rivers (2014).International Rivers. Home. Retrieved from: http://www.internationalrivers.org/

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IPCC. (2007). Faq 10.1 are extreme events, like heat waves, droughts or floods, expected to change as the earths climate changes? IPPC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Retrieved from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-101.html

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IPCC. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special Report. Retrieved from: http://www.ipccwg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPMbrochure_FINAL.pdf

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MacKinnon, I. (2009, Feb. 18). Indonesia reopens peatland to palm oil plantation. The Guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/18/indonesia-peatpalm-oil

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Monsanto. (2014). Water efficient maize for Africa. Improving Agriculture. Retrieved from: http://www.monsanto.com/improvingagriculture/pages/water-efficient-maize-forafrica.aspx

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National Research Council. (1999). The impacts of natural disasters: A framework for loss estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Retrieved from: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=6425&page=55

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Notarbartolo di Sciara, G. (2007). Guidelines for the establishment and management of marine protected areas for cetaceans. Migrate. Retrieved from: http://lifeprojectmigrate.com/guidelines-for-the-establishment-and-management-ofmarine-protected-areas-and-cetaceans-accobams-medmpa-unepcbd/

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Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (2007). Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Summary for policymakers. IPCC. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf

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U.S. Energy Information Administration (2013). Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. International Energy Outlook 2013. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm

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Union of Concerned Scientists. (2013). Infographic: Western Wildfires and Climate Change. Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved from: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographicwildfires-climate-change.html

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Van Lavieren, H., Spalding, M., Alongi, D. M., Kainuma, M., Clsener-Godt, M. & Adeel, Z. (2012). Securing the future of mangroves. Policy brief, UN Univ. Inst. Water Env. Health, Hamilton, Can. Retrieved from: http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002192/219248e.pdf

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Whittingstall, D. (2012, March 5). Simple Climate. Retrieved from:

http://climatesoscanada.org/blog/2013/03/05/projected-effects-and-historical-overviewof-civilizational-forced-climate-change/

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Appendix H:

Proposal Presentation Slides

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Appendix I:

Final Presentation Slides

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