Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
publ i sh date : 5/2/2014 Author : Alex Bernal, CMT alex@aetheranalytics.com 805.252.7161 DISCLAIMER
The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.
This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.
The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.
No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
Report Details Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included. Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. Com User Guide Download Link > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf
Table of Contents Section 1 : Quick Glance Table Summary Section 2 : Currencies Section 3 : Energy Complex Section 7 : Grains & Softs Section 9 : Dow 30 Stocks Section 10 : Sample Portfolio Tracking AUDCAD WTI CRUDE Corn AXP T Section 11 : Appendix AUDJPY Brent Crude Soybeans BA TRV AUDNZD Natural Gas Soybean Oil CAT UNH AUDUSD Section 4 : Interest Rates Oats CSCO UTX EURAUD 10 Year Treasury Note Wheat CVX V EURCAD 30 Year Treasury Bond Coffee DD VZ EURGBP Ultra Bond Sugar DIS WMT EURJPY Section 5 : Indices Cotton GE XOM EURNZD S&P 500 Cocoa GS EURTRY Nasdaq 100 Section 8 : SDPR Sector ETFs HD EURUSD Russell 2000 XLB IBM GBPAUD DJIA XLE INTC GBPCAD VIX (VXX / VXZ) XLF JNJ GBPJPY Nikkei XLI JPM GBPNZD Shanghai XLK KO HKDJPY Heng Seng XLP MCD NZDJPY Jakarta XLU MMM NZDUSD Section 6 : Metals XLV MRK USDCAD Gold XLY MSFT USDHKD Silver NKE USDJPY Platinum PFE Palladium PG Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Recommended Entry Price Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame AUDCAD Entry 1.01 Triggered 1/2 @ 1.035 1/2 @ 1.028 0.99 & 0.96 Trade is Live Daily & Weekly AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.00 , 1/2 @ 96.29 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live. Daily AUDNZD AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.914, 1/2 @ 0.936 91 & 88 Trade is Live Daily EURAUD Entry 1.488 Triggered 1/2 @ 1.47, 1/2 @ 1.45 1.5948 minimum Trade is Live Weekly EURCAD Possible Bearish Reciprocal AB = CD EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.59, 1/2 @ 1.587 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live. *about to get stopped out of 1/2 Daily EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly GBPAUD Retesting HS neckline with bearish reciprocal GBPCAD Possible complex head and shoulders top pattern GBPJPY Possible bearish 1 : 0.618 rhombus GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.93 & 1/2 @ 1.94 2.002.03, LT 2.10 Trade is Live Daily HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.87 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is Live (STOPS WERE NOT REVISED FOR HS PATTERN) Daily USDCAD Bearish 5-0 USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Recommended Entry Price Current Stop Targets Quick Note Time Frame USDJPY No tradable patterns. USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade. USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet USDTRY No tradable patterns. WTI CRUDE Entry Triggered 102.58 1/2 @ 102.21 94 Trade is Live. 1/2 of position taken off at target 1 99.00 Daily BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested. Large Scale symmetrical triangle on weekly Nat Gas 10 YEAR NOTE Buy stop entry 125,05 1/2 @ 123.11, 1/2 @ 123,17 128 Reverse Head and shoulders setting up. Small long trade suggested. Daily 30 YEAR BOND Entry Triggered 135.16 130.88 142.16 Trade is Live Weekly Ultra Bond Similar pattern to ZB SP500 No tradable patterns. NASDAQ 100 Gartley Resistance at 3655 RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended DJIA 1:1 ABC Rhombus VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns. NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2184, 1/2 @ 2160 1980 Trade is Live Daily NASDAQ 100 No tradable patterns RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended DJIA No tradable patterns. Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Time Frame Recommended Entry Price Current Stop Targets Quick Note HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE BOMBAY SENSEX Weekly Sell stop entry 22000 1/2 @ 24133, 1/2 @ 23639 19000 Bearish crab & 5 wave complete EW impulse GOLD Weekly Buy stop entry 1400 1/2 @ 1196.3, 1/2 @ 1153 1650 Weekly Possible bullish reverse head and shoulders SILVER Daily Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.55 1/2 @ 18.19 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entry Platinum No tradable pattern Palladium Daily Sell stop entry 800 1/2 @ 857.96, 1/2 @ 846.69 770 & 720 High pattern rank Bearish deep crab. Three drives to a high also here at the D point. Corn Three drives to a high pattern Soybeans Weekly Daily Sell stop entry 1440 1/2 @ 1604, 1/2 @ 164 1300 & 1050 Multi Harmonic Resistance on Weekly Pattern. Clear 5 wave impulse complete on daily Soybean Oil Gartley Levels shown Oats No tradable patterns. Wheat Double top setting up Coffee Low Pattern Rank Alt Bat Sugar No tradable patterns. Cotton No tradable patterns. Cocoa Weekly Sell stop entry 2866 1/2 @ 3150, 1/2 @ 3234 2600 & 2200 Bearish Crab Pattern Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Recommended Entry Price Current Stop Targets Quick Note Time Frame XLB No tradable patterns. XLE No tradable patterns. XLF No tradable patterns. XLI No tradable patterns. XLK No tradable patterns. XLP 43.50 1/2 @ 46.44, 1/2 @ 45.75 39.50 Bearish Three Drives with Price and Time rhombus Weekly XLU 41.75 1/2 @ 45.76, 1/2 @ 44.99 38 Bearish Butterfly and Bearish 1 : 0.786 Rhombus Weekly XLV No tradable patterns. XLY No tradable patterns. AXP No tradable patterns. BA No tradable patterns. CAT Weekly Gartley Low Pattern Rank CSCO 1 : 0.886 rhombus CVX No tradable patterns. DD No tradable patterns. DIS No tradable patterns. GE Fractals GS No tradable patterns. HD Fractals IBM No tradable patterns Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level Time Frame Recommended Entry Price Current Stop Targets Quick Note INTC No tradable patterns. JNJ Fractals JPM, No tradable patterns. KO Low structure rank. No trade suggested. MCD No tradable patterns. MMM Failed Gartley MRK Daily Sell stop entry 57.99 1/2 @ 61.64, 1/2 @ 60.93 53 51 Few high symmetry 5 wave complete EW cycle impulse MSFT No tradable patterns. NKE Weekly Double Top PFE No tradable patterns. PG Diamond top T Low pattern rank. Bearish Bat TRV No tradable patterns. UNH No tradable patterns. UTX No tradable patterns. V Bullish support lower VZ No tradable patterns. WMT Bearish Bat setting up XOM Failed bearish gartley Currencies AUDCAD - Daily Trade is Live. Sell stop to entry triggered 1.01, Stop levels are at 1.035 & 1.028. Possible targets are .99 and .96. Analysis : Extended bearish Butterfly. Clear im- pulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a possible wave 3 of 5 up secondary wave. I believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade set- up. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the last up wave. As trade developed we were glad to see a bearish cup and handle pattern at the top structure.
AUDCAD - Weekly On the weekly scale the pattern is even more convincing for a reversal here. We have a really nice ABC retracement pattern within the Gartley pattern. AUDCAD has been testing the upper volatility boundary. Wave C target possibility is 0.92 to 0.88. We suggest using the daily chart for execution. Nice symmetry ranking on week- ly. AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are at 97.00 & 96.29. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved reversal here. Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at 97.15 for 1/2 the position and 96.41 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.
AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix this could be a nice reversal. No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low. Potential bullish support at 1.06
AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.942 & 0.936. Price is currently testing the A C trendline if we see a break below could be nice impulse move down to target level 1. EURAUD - Trade is Live. Buy stop entry triggered at 1.488 still Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. Clearly a nice area to get long with the prevailing trend. Current stops 1/2 @ 1.47, 1/2 @ 1.45, Minimum expected target is 1.59
EURCADPossible bearish reciprocal AB = CD. No trade suggested.
EURGBPPossible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern
EURJPYCorrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation. 144.00 bullish breakout level. 140.00 bearish breakout level. Measured move targets at 150 (bullish) & 133 (bearish)
EURNZDBuy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.598 for 1/2 the position and 1.587 for 1/2. Preceding structure lacks the traits of a 5 wave im- pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade. Seems like our initial analysis is correct in terms of low structure rating. Trade is about to get stopped out for 1/2 as of Friday May 2, 2014. EURUSD Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal juncture. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401 has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive traders. No formal trade is suggested yet until the PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten- tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term. GBPAUD Retest of the primary head and shoulders pattern. No trade recommended due to low structure rating but suggested stops are shown for those whom want to take the risk. (1.86 & 1.85). If we do see a reversal here then I have laid out possible wave 5 moves that would fit the pattern symmetry. 1.74 would be a typ- ical wave 5 move. GBPCAD Complex head and shoulders pattern setting up here. Measured move target 1.77 if it breaks the neckline. GBPJPY Potential bearish Rhombus here. The Length of X to A : B to C is 1 : 0.618. Also it is hitting the double top resistance level from the March and April highs.. A prospective wave C move target would be approximately 168 if the current move is assumed to be B in nature. We are not suggesting a trade setup here but for those who like the idea prospective stops would be at 175.63 & 174.52
GBPNZD Trade is Live. Buy stop to entry was triggered at 1.953. Current Stops at 1.928 and 1.94 Measured move targets at minimum at 2.00 and we suggest taking off 3/4 of the total position if this is reached since the target 2 is beyond what we see feasible in the next move. Current weakness after breakout is dis heartening but our stops are placed and we will see if this comes to fruition. NZDJPY Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a Bat-Crab in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 35 wave termination points its a very high conviction trade setup. We recommend 200% normal position size for ag- gressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70. NZDUSD Sitting on nice profits here. Sell stop to entry was triggered on 4/11/2014 at 0.8635. Stops are now at 0.876 and 0.86 Potential targets include 0.8472 and 0.8150. Even though the trailing stops adjusted down since we think this top is still developing into a head and shoulders so we are going to leave them at last weeks suggested levels. This is an example of a very rare occasion where will override the system during a live trade. If H&S pattern confirmed we will move stops lower than ATR to compensate for time at risk added at this point. USDCAD Nice turn from last weeks suggested bearish 5-0 USDSGD potential bullish Bat, PRZ not yet reached. I have measured out the typical wave 5 symmetry and its quite curious that it is very close to the bullish bat sup- port on the larger term pattern setting up here. Energy WTI Crude Oil Trade is Live. 1/2 of the original trade position was taken off for profits at 99.00. Current stop for remaining 1/2 is at 102.28. Target 2 of 94.00 is next place we will take profits if position is not stopped out before then. Interest Rates US Ten Year Treasury NoteBullish bat in early April supported the Head and Shoulders bottom pattern setting up here. A small long trade is suggested on a break of the neck line at 125,05. If filled stops would be placed at 123,50 & 123,11. Measured move target is 128. US 30 Year Treasury BondTrade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Stops are at 132. possible target measured move is 143. US 30 Year Treasury BondDaily Look current up wave could find harmonic resistance at 138.04. we will move stops up tighter when this level is being tested. Ultra Bond Daily Look Indices NASDAQ 100 Daily Look, Potential Gartley Resistance. Trade setup will be valid if PRZ is hit. DJIA Daily Look, nice 1 : 1 ratio rhombus here. Double top right at the January major high swing. Also could be setting up a head and shoulders top. We are cur- rently forming the right shoulder. If we see a reversal down a sell stop to entry could be recommended at 16290 for aggressive traders. SHANG HAI INDEX Trade is live, Entry triggered at 2185. Stops are revised to 2184 for 1/2 and 2160 for 1/2. Jakarta IndexUpdate : ENTRY Suggestion Not triggered yet. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position size than normal. Bombay Sensex IndexUpdate : PRZ was hit on a bearish Bat Crab (1/2 way between). There is also high ranking symmetry in respect to the 5 wave sequence that we labeled starting at the Harmonic A point. On a long term basic we feel like this market is way over extended and the potential retrace is quite substantial. Sell stop to entry is suggested at 22000 with stops at 24133 & 23639. Minimum hold target would be 19000 Metals Gold Weekly Possible bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern off of the Major harmonic support level zone. If neck line is breached at 1400 a small buy stop to entry for long trade is recommended with stops at 1196 and 1153 respectively. Minimum measured move target would be 1650. Silver Nice Bullish Bat setting up here . Suggested Buy stop entry 20.00 with stops at 1/2 @ 18.55, 1/2 @ 18.19 with Targets at 22 & 24. Also clear bullish three drives pattern down here at the D zone. Palladium Bearish Deep Crab. With nice structure rating. This complex three drives high suggests there is distribution up here at the PRZ. This could be a good spread trade with Gold's bullish set up. If Gold and Silver fail support here it should drag this leader down. Suggested entry is a sell stop to short at 800 with targets of 770 and 720 to the down side. With stops at 857 and 846 for 1/2 of position. Since ATR is quite high right now it has pushed the stops a good distance away from PRZ so a small position size is recommended. Grains & Softs Corn Clear three drives to a high pattern. Soybeans Weekly There is two separate harmonic patterns here both with resistance PRZ at the 1520 +/- region. Clear ABC up swing suggests a new down im- pulse should form. Suggested entry zone is 1440 for a sell stop to entry short. With stops at 1646 & 1604. Targets are the recent lows at 1280 and below at 1050. Soybeans Daily LookReally good example of a Copsey modified elliott wave. With a clear 3 wave impulse for wave 1. Double top at 1520. see weekly chart for trade setup. Soybeans Oil Daily Look Wheat Double Top CoffeeBearish ALT bat. The pattern has a low structure ranking so we are not suggesting a trade. But we have plotted the suggested stop levels if you feel so in- clined. CocoaBearish Crab Pattern on the weekly scale. Nice structure rating here. This is a high probably trade set up. We recommend using 150% larger size on this trade. Sell stop to entry short is 2866 with stops at 3150 and 3234. Targets are 2600 and 2200. SDPR Sector ETFS XLP Consumer Staples Three drive to a high top pattern here (1.618 and 1.272 ratio between highs) Also in the last 2 swings a bearish rhombus has formed with nice price and time symmetry. Sell stop to entry at 43.50 with stops at 46.44 & 47.45. Target at 39 or EPA Line XLU Utilities Three drive to a high top pattern here with a Bearish Butterfly as well. Also in the last 2 swings a bearish rhombus has formed with nice price and time symmetry. Sell stop to entry short is suggested at 41.75 with stops at 45.76 and 44.99. Targets of 38 & 35 to the downside. Dow 30 Stocks CATWeekly Bearish GartleyLow Pattern Rank CATWeekly Bearish GartleyLow Pattern Rank GEFractals HDFractals JNJFractals JPMFractals KOFractals. Low structure rank. No trade suggested. MRK High pattern rank complete EW 5 wave up cycle. Sell stop to short at 57.99. with stops at 61.64 & 60.93. Targets at 50% and 61.8% 52, 51 levels. Nice bearish butterly to compliment the 3 to 5 wave reversal zone. NKEDouble Top PGDiamond Top TLow pattern rank bearish bat WMTLow pattern rank bearish bat. PRZ not confirmed yet XOM Potential Garfly Portfolio Tracking Sample Portfolio Tracking In the effort to help our subscribers learn how to effectively manage a forex, futures & Stock portfolio we have build a sample portfolio tracking log that utilizes a base $100,000.00 NAV starting amount for 3 separate portfolios; $100,000 for futures , $100,000 for forex & $100,000 for stock trades. In efforts to simplify this log we will not include commissions or broker fees since these will vary from subscriber to subscriber. This is in no way meant to be representative of actual capital being man- aged but solely for educational purposes to show the subscriber how we are performing with our trade suggestions and risk management. We will strive to keep the most accurate trading performance statistics possible and also keep our log simplified and transparent. - Forex : We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 10 Mini forex lots for all FX trades unless noted otherwise. (10,000 units of quote currency) Futures: We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 1 standard futures contract for all futures trades unless noted otherwise.
Equities : %200 NAV of portfolio will be the base multiplier for share size. (rounded up to nearest whole)
Subscribers are responsible for calculating there own optimal position sizes in accordance to there own individual risk tolerances.
The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such infor- mation is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.
This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or other- wise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment de- cisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are de- nominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.
The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.
No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, repre- sentatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein. Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price *Size (Mini lots or contracts) Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L *$ P&L EURNZD 4/11/2014 Long 1.605 10 1.58 1.570 NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Short 0.8635 10 0.88 0.89 AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Short 95.00 10 97 96.29 AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Short 0.935 10 0.914 0.936 NZDUSD 4/15/2014 Short 0.863 10 0.88 0.87 EURAUD 4/23/2014 Long 1.488 10 1.47 1.45 GBPNZD 4/16/2014 Long 1.953 10 1.93 1.94 WTI Crude 4/22/2014 Short 102.58 2 105.21 104 5/1, 1 @ 99.00 3.58, Shanghai 4/22/2014 Short 2185 *Index 2284
2160 AUDCAD 4/29/2014 Short 1.01 10 1.035 1.028 30 Year 5/1/2014 Long 135.16 2 130.88
Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page Sample Portfolio Performance Performance Table * Portfolio Performance is calculated from month end only on closed trades Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Jan 2014 0.0% 0.0% 2015 Risk Return Profile
Performance YTD Performance since inception Max Draw Down Annual RoR Monthly Annual Compound Return Sharpe since inception Profit Factor Next UpdateJune 30th Appendix Methodology & Strategy Harmonic any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.
The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number. - J.M. Hurst
Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that we have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We dont believe in the subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or forecasted.
Common Newsletter Nomenclature Pattern RankOur proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment (longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.
PRZPotential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern
Pattern NamesBAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point fractal structures that appear in the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full specifics and details for each pattern
Detrended OscillatorOne of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is very similar to RVALUE indicator laid out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great tool in analyzing the over extending to the up and downside of a markets normal behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and momentum. Appendix Trade Management We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often util ize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR 14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out. Position Sizing
There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our confidence rating in the context of each trade. When we mention Normal position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your specific risk tolerance and trade management style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have slightly less confidence in & 6/4 (150%) or 8/4 (200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each trade. We never ever recommend betting the farm or going all in in any trade because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formulas that we recommend is the following:
Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolio equity to risk per trade (2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR
Author Bio
Alex Bernal, CMT Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivatives markets. Alex also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co. in the wealth management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical arbitrage in areas such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year treasuries floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analytics in 2009 with the intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce quantifiable edge through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to reveal the repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.
Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.com, Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.