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Extended expert view:
Consolidation in CEE fuel retail
Acquisitions and value enhancing developments
put the creation of a CEE champion on hold
It is three years since stories about the creation of a central European oil champion involving
Austria's OMV, Hungary's MOL and Poland's PKN started to circulate. However, with the
three companies tackling different acquisition priorities over the last 2-3 years and now
focusing on enhancing company value, the deal is firmly on the backburner.
Although the bulk of this value will come from upstream activities, this also requires the
development of a clearly defined downstream proposition and the attainment of a more
efficient forecourt network, especially in the case of PKN Orlen.
Reference Code: BFEN0084
Publication Date: May 2005


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Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retail
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 2
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Executive Summary


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 3
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE have been pronounced
It is three years since stories about the creation of a central European oil champion
involving Austria's OMV, Hungary's MOL and Poland's PKN started to circulate, and
over a year since the latter two signed a document stating their intention to start
consolidating. However, with the three companies tackling different acquisition
priorities over the last 2-3 years, the deal is firmly on the backburner.
Network improvements are required to enhance competitive
performance
Now that the consolidation in Central and Eastern European forecourt retailing has
entered a second phase, the focus for the companies involved is achieving increased
market value in light of their newly acquired assets. Although the bulk of this value will
come from upstream activities, this also requires the development of a clearly defined
downstream proposition and the attainment of a more efficient forecourt network,
especially in the case of PKN Orlen.
Freshly developed markets may prove attractive to the major
oil companies
Only when MOL, OMV and PKN have enhanced their company valuations and CEE
market activity subsides a little, will a large-scale co-operation become more of a
reality. However, by this time, a truly global Western oil player, or indeed an eastern
company might attempt to buy its way into the market.



Table of Contents


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 4
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE have been pronounced 3
Network improvements are required to enhance competitive performance 3
Freshly developed markets may prove attractive to the major oil companies 3
INTRODUCTION 6
FORECOURT RETAIL ACQUISITIONS IN CEE HAVE BEEN
PRONOUNCED 7
NETWORK IMPROVEMENTS ARE REQUIRED TO ENHANCE
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE 12
FRESHLY DEVELOPED MARKETS MAY PROVE ATTRACTIVE
TO THE MAJOR OIL COMPANIES 15
APPENDIX 17
Related products 17
European Forecourt Retailing Database 17
Forecourt Retailing analyst contacts 17
Table of Contents


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 5
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: PKNs move into the Czech Republic increases its site numbers by
14% 11
Figure 2: OMV and MOLs average site throughput exceeds PKNs 12
Figure 3: OMV has a stable ownership structure 16


Introduction


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 6
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
INTRODUCTION
In the first four months of 2005 all eyes have been focused on Central and Eastern
Europes forecourt retailing markets as the first major stage of regional consolidation
comes to an end. As the key players involved, including OMV, PKN and MOL, now
focus on enhancing company value, this is a trend which is unlikely to dissipate any
time soon.
This Extended Expert View highlights the core retail developments in this region,
focusing on three of the most important players, Hungarys MOL, Polands PKN Orlen
and Austrias OMV. It outlines recent acquisition activity and summarizes the strategic
intentions of the companies in their key markets from a retail perspective.
The Expert View comprises three further sections. The first section details the
acquisition activity in CEE markets over the last 2 to 3 years. The second section
discusses the new retail positions of MOL, OMV and PKN in terms of the relative
efficiency of their recently acquired sites and touches on the strategic intentions of the
companies.
Finally, some of the speculation surrounding the future of these companies is touched
upon, namely the likelihood that a combination of these three companies will create a
regional force and the prospect of Western European or Eastern players waging
acquisition efforts on the freshly developed companies.
Further information on Datamonitors European Forecourt Retailing Database is given
in the Appendix.


Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE
have been pronounced


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 7
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
FORECOURT RETAIL ACQUISITIONS IN CEE HAVE BEEN
PRONOUNCED
It is three years since stories about the creation of a central European oil champion
involving Austria's OMV, Hungary's MOL and Poland's PKN started to circulate, and
over a year since the latter two signed a document stating their intention to start
consolidating. However, with the three companies tackling different acquisition
priorities over the last 2-3 years, the deal is firmly on the backburner.
OMV
Austrias OMV is one of the largest oil groups in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
with annual sales reaching almost EUR10 billion. It was this companys core
acquisition of Romanias Petrom, coupled with the approval of PKNs takeover the of
Czech Republics Unipetrol, which signaled the end of the first phase of regional
consolidation in the industry.
The strong domestic position of OMV and the geographic location of the Austrian
retail market leader have given the company easy access to the growth markets of
CEE, providing a strong basis for a comprehensive expansion programme across the
region. The company now has a retail presence in over half of the CEE countries,
including the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.
In late 1998, the company acquired BPs networks in the Czech Republic, Slovakia
and Hungary. By 2000, it had a 24.5% fuel retail share in Slovenia, 11% in Slovakia,
10% in Hungary and 9% in the Czech Republic. Organic growth in each of these
markets is apparent as the market shares now sit at 26.2%, 14.7%, 16% (or 15%
excluding recently acquired Avanti volumes) and 10.1%, respectively. This is a
positive result given that a market share of at least 10% was stated as desirable to
ensure profitability.
Additionally, OMV extended its CEE fuel retailing operations by entering the high
growth potential markets of Bulgaria and Romania. These two markets were its
priority in terms of acquisition investment. In Bulgaria it purchased 25 sites from
Petrol but the takeover of Romanias Petrom in 2004 has been OMVs most pertinent
purchase to date.
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE
have been pronounced


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 8
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
Until the Petrom deal, MOL has gotten the better of OMV in regional acquisitions.
However, given that MOL had stated in 2002 that it intended to double the value of
the company, something of the magnitude of the Petrom acquisition was necessary to
achieve this.
To date, the Petrom acquisition has produced very desirable results. In J anuary 2005
it was the most valuable company on the stock markets in CEE, a result
accomplished in part through a capital injection from OMV. Its value on the Bucharest
Stock Exchange rose by more than EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 5.59 billion in one month.
It was worth around EUR 1.27 billion in J anuary 2004 and is now around 4.5 times
that. OMVs planned investment in Petrom is between EUR 300 million and EUR 400
million per annum over the next three to five years, with the majority of its short and
medium-term objectives focusing on upstream operations.
The upstream assets of the Romanian company present OMV with huge
opportunities in the Danube area and in Iran, Pakistan and Kazakhstan. However,
with regards to forecourt retailing its focus is largely on the CEE region, and Romania,
a country of some 22 million people that will likely join the European Union by 2007,
holds great potential in this regard.
Given the investment needed in Petrom and its upstream priorities, OMV has
admitted that a strategic cooperation with MOL, PKN or both, is not something which
is likely to happen any time soon. Indeed, the company is on the way to meeting its
core objectives without such partnerships or consolidation.

Table 1: OMVs strategic goals and their achievement

2001 2004
With
Petrom
2008
target

Oil and gas production (boe/day) 78,000 125,000 345,000 350,000
Market share in the Danube region 9% 14% 18% 20%
Number of filling stations 1,160 1,773 2,385 -

Refinery capacity 13 18.4 26.4 -

Source: Datamonitor/ Portfolio.hu/Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE
have been pronounced


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 9
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MOL
MOL, a former state owned company, is the largest integrated oil and gas company in
Hungary in terms of sales. It is now a listed company with shares listed on the
Budapest, Luxembourg, and more recently, the Warsaw Stock Exchange. OMV also
has a 10% interest in the company.
As a forecourt retailer, MOL has historically dominated the Hungarian market with a
43.1% market share in volume terms at the end of 2003. Running in parallel to its
consolidation activity has been a network improvement effort in its domestic market,
typical of a former national company. Investments in modernization of these sites has
allowed MOL to increase its average site throughput from 3.45 million litres in 2000 to
4.10 million litres at the end of 2003, a 19% increase over a three year period.
Much of MOLs consolidation activities over the last 5 years have been focused
downstream as this was where the greatest opportunities existed. It is now hoping to
invest more upstream.
MOL firstly acquired Slovak market leader, Slovnaft in 2000. This relationship was
initiated in March 2000 when it purchased a 36.2% stake in the company. The newly
formed company planned a coordinated network development programme initially
with a focus on the Romanian market. The long-term objective was to be among the
top three fuel retailers in the country. MOLs market share of the Romanian market
has increased from 2.7% in 2001 to 5.7% in J anuary 2004. However, given that this is
a little shy of its target of 8-10% it has taken measures to meet this through the
acquisition of 57 Shell Romania stations, announced in November 2004. This
acquisition has made MOL the second largest petrol retailer in the country with over
130 sites.
In 1999, MOL also entered the Croatian market, opening the first station of the small
planned network. Recent activity has significantly strengthened its position in this
market also. In 2004 it took 25% of INA, Croatias state-owned oil and gas company,
and in J une it plans to bid for a controlling stake. MOL has also shown interest in
buying a stake in Bosnia's Energopetrol.
Although it has been suggested that MOLs recent acquisition activity and its listing on
the Warsaw Stock exchange will facilitate its eventual merger with Polands PKN
Orlen, this is unlikely to happen in the short term. MOL has admitted that Poland is an
interesting market and the prospect of a strategic partnership is something that is not
out of the question.
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE
have been pronounced


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 10
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
PKN Orlen
Of the three players, PKN Orlen seems to be the one speaking most positively about
some kind of partnership with another one of the CEE majors. Although it has been
making progress in improving its operations it has acknowledged that it lacks the
scale to survive as an independent.
However, it is in a strategic quandary over where it is directing its investments, which
serves to decrease the attractiveness of the company to potential partners. To date,
most investments have been focused downstream, and this hasnt proved as
profitable as initially hoped. Consequently, the company is reassessing its lack of
oilfield assets. It currently secures supplies through term contracts with Russian oil
suppliers.
The first major downstream investment was the purchase of around 490 petrol station
sites in Germany, which have yet to make a profit. As a result, the company is
currently reviewing its German network, which operates under the brands of Orlen
Deutschland and Star. The company is reported to be in discussions regarding a
potential sale of the network or, alternatively, a strategic partnership with another
German player.
The company has recently had better luck with the EU Commissions approval of its
acquisition of Unipetrol, signifying PKNs entrance into the Czech forecourt retailing
market. PKN Orlens acquisition of a 62.99% stake in Czech Unipetrol, estimated at
$480 million, was originally agreed in April 2004. The Unipetrol group consists of the
wholly-owned subsidiaries Chemopetrol, Kaucuk, and Benzina. Through the
acquisition of Benzina, PKN Orlen will acquire over 300 Benzina branded petrol
station sites, making it the largest forecourt retailer in the Czech market in terms of
network coverage and second to Shell in terms of market share.
As the key national player, one of Benzinas major advantages is its countrywide
network coverage. However, many of its sites are inefficient and require further
investment. PKN has recently announced that it will sell some 100 of the acquired
stations and will also consider buying some 70 BP Aral stations up for sale in the
Czech Republic.
Forecourt retail acquisitions in CEE
have been pronounced


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 11
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied

Figure 1: PKNs move into the Czech Republic increases its site numbers
by 14%



Source: PKN Orlen / Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

PKN's lack of focus on upstream activities compared to OMV and MOL means that it
is behind them in terms of market valuation. The net worth of both MOL and OMV is
over 50% higher than PKN. However, when the merger was originally discussed the
three players had a similar market value. Until PKN catches up with its CEE peers,
the prospect of a merger will fade further into the distance.
Network improvements are required to
enhance competitive performance


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 12
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
NETWORK IMPROVEMENTS ARE REQUIRED TO
ENHANCE COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
Now that the consolidation in CEE forecourt retailing has entered a second phase, the
focus for the companies involved is achieving increased market value in light of their
newly acquired assets. Although the bulk of it will come from upstream activities this
also requires the development of a clearly defined downstream proposition and the
attainment of a more efficient forecourt network, especially in the case of PKN Orlen.
Despite CEE forecourt retailing companies having made some strides towards
network enhancement, especially in their traditional markets, most are still some way
behind the Western European major oil companies, not only in terms of market share,
but also network efficiency.
Figure 2: OMV and MOLs average site throughput exceeds PKNs

BP
J et
MOL
OMV
Shell
Esso
Repsol
Cepsa
Galp
PKN Orlen
Total
Statoil
Agip
Texaco
Q8
Benzina AS
ErgPetroli
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Average site throughput (m litres per year)
S
u
m

o
f

s
i
t
e
s

(
J
a
n

2
0
0
4
)
Volume Share (2003)
BP
J et
MOL
OMV
Shell
Esso
Repsol
Cepsa
Galp
PKN Orlen
Total
Statoil
Agip
Texaco
Q8
Benzina AS
ErgPetroli
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Average site throughput (m litres per year)
S
u
m

o
f

s
i
t
e
s

(
J
a
n

2
0
0
4
)
Volume Share (2003)
Source: Datamonitor D A T A M O N I T O R

Network improvements are required to
enhance competitive performance


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 13
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied

Table 2: Euro 26
1
network efficiency and volume share


Average site throughput
(litres m per year)
Sum of sites
(Jan 2004)
Volume Share
(2003)

BP 5.5 5,814 10.8%
J et 4.8 2,104 3.4%
MOL 3.8 430 0.6%
OMV 3.4 1,258 1.5%
Shell 3.3 11,176 12.5%
Esso 3.2 8,264 9.0%
Repsol 3.1 3,721 3.9%
Cepsa 3.0 1,765 1.8%
Galp 2.9 1,053 1.0%
PKN 2.6 1,890 1.7%
Total 2.6 8,973 7.9%
Statoil 2.6 1,953 1.7%
Petrom 2.5 683 0.6%
Agip 2.1 9,004 6.3%
Texaco 2.0 2,278 1.6%
Q8 1.8 3,885 2.4%
Benzina 1.7 313 0.2%
Slovnaft 1.6 303 0.2%
Erg 1.4 1,975 0.9%

Source: European Forecourt Retailing Database, 2004 D A T A M O N I T O R

1
Euro 26 includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
By using 2003 company volumes and market share data in their respective markets, we have produced a
Euro 26 market share figure for each of the companies listed above. E.g. The Euro 26 market share for
OMV will =(OMV Austria volumes +OMV Czech Rep volumes +OMV Hungary volumes +OMV Bulgaria
volumes) / Total Euro 26 volumes, i.e. it does not take account of OMV's sales in markets where its
presence is marginal. Nevertheless, this is a valid representation of their share of the total volumes sold
across all of the 26 markets listed above.
.
Network improvements are required to
enhance competitive performance


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 14
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MOL and OMV are in a superior position to PKN in terms of network efficiency. Their
average annual volumes per site are 3.8 and 3.4 million litres respectively, whilst
PKNs average is 2.6. This calculation captures MOLs network in Hungary, Romania
and Slovenia, OMVs sites in these three markets in addition to Austria, Czech
Republic, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia and PKNs sites in Poland.
Encouragingly, PKN has recently announced a new retail strategy with an objective to
enhancing the performance of its networks. It is segmenting the network into premium
and economy with approximately 1,000 premium stations and 900 economy stations.
The planned average yearly capital expenditure is PLN390 million (EUR 94 million)
over 2005-2009. It hopes to exceed an average throughput of 2.5 million litres per
annum across its company-owned stations.
When examining OMV and MOLs newly acquired sites, scope for improvement is
also apparent. OMVs Petrom had an average throughput of 2.5 million litres in 2003,
whilst its owners existing sites were more efficient at 3.4 million litres per year.
Similarly, although MOL achieves an average yearly site throughout of 3.8 million
litres per year, the newly acquired Slovnaft is 1.6 million litres per year. PKN is in a
similar situation with Benzinas average site throughput being less than half of many
of its competitors, at 1.7 million litres per year. Whilst this is partly due to the rural
location of many sites, there is scope to significantly reduce this differential, without
compromising its national geographic presence.
Fortunately OMVs key strategic priority is development of the newly acquired Petrom
assets in Romania. Additionally, MOL has just announced investments of EUR 70
million to expand its Romanian network to 190-200 filling stations in next 5 years. This
includes EUR 12 million for the integration of the 59 Romanian petrol station sites it
purchased from Shell. Therefore, OMV must waste no time in ensuring that it
maximizes the amount of fuel going through its network to sustain volume share in
this rapidly liberalizing market.
Freshly developed markets may
prove attractive to the major oil
companies


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 15
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
FRESHLY DEVELOPED MARKETS MAY PROVE
ATTRACTIVE TO THE MAJOR OIL COMPANIES
Only when MOL, OMV and PKN have enhanced their company valuations and CEE
market activity subsides a little, will a large-scale co-operation become more of a
reality. However, by this time, a truly global western oil player, or indeed an eastern
company might attempt to buy its way into the market.
Whilst all three players agree that further consolidation, or at the very least, strategic
partnerships may make sense in the long run, it is difficult to foresee a compromise
being reached. Currently PKN and the Polish government envisage an even merger
between itself and MOL, for example. However, given the current market valuations
of the two companies, MOL shareholders consider this objectionable. Although the
Polish state selling its 10% share would serve to reduce this obstacle, PKNs price will
have increased by the time this happens.
With or without a tie-up, the CEE market will settle and be concentrated around two to
three players over the next 3-5 years. Ironically, when this time comes there is a
strong likelihood that an external player from the east or west might show interest in a
grand acquisition.
The perceived competitive threat of Russian companies at the moment varies. Whilst
OMV representatives have stated that Lukoil, especially in conjunction with
ConocoPhillips, for example, is a serious competitive threat, others feel comfortable
that Russian companies are not a concern given their management structures and
bureaucratic and political pressures.
Meanwhile, the Western European major oil companies are slowly moving away from
the CEE markets. Shell has sold its Romanian stations to MOL, and BP is leaving the
Czech market. However, this isnt to say that one wont attempt to snap up a key CEE
player at a later date. The activity of these companies in 5 years time is impossible to
predict. A lot depends on the ownership structure of the companies involved. OMVs
shareholder structure can be described as stable, with IPIC (the Abu Dhabi-based oil
company) and the Austrian government as the core owners. Their combined stake in
OMV is now 49%. It is OMVs desire that the two core shareholders will never
account for anything less than 40%+.

Freshly developed markets may
prove attractive to the major oil
companies


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 16
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
Figure 3: OMV has a stable ownership structure


MOL
OMV
10%
Slovintegra, Slovbena
8%
Hungarian
government
12%
Domestic or domestic
depositary
8%
MOL Treasury
5%
International
institutional investors
56%
MOL employees
1%
OMV
IPIC
18%
Freefloat
50%
IAG (Austrian State
Holding co.)
32%
PKN Orlen
Nafta Polska S.A.
17%
State Treasury
10%
The Bank of New
York
12%
Others
61%
MOL
OMV
10%
Slovintegra, Slovbena
8%
Hungarian
government
12%
Domestic or domestic
depositary
8%
MOL Treasury
5%
International
institutional investors
56%
MOL employees
1%
MOL
OMV
10%
Slovintegra, Slovbena
8%
Hungarian
government
12%
Domestic or domestic
depositary
8%
MOL Treasury
5%
International
institutional investors
56%
MOL employees
1%
OMV
IPIC
18%
Freefloat
50%
IAG (Austrian State
Holding co.)
32%
OMV
IPIC
18%
Freefloat
50%
IAG (Austrian State
Holding co.)
32%
PKN Orlen
Nafta Polska S.A.
17%
State Treasury
10%
The Bank of New
York
12%
Others
61%
PKN Orlen
Nafta Polska S.A.
17%
State Treasury
10%
The Bank of New
York
12%
Others
61%
Source: Datamonitor / Company websites D A T A M O N I T O R

Irrespective of what the future holds the key thing is that regional integration is
working effectively to ensure there is strong impetus behind further development in
CEE, providing benefits for customers and shareholders alike.
Appendix


Extended expert view: Consolidation in CEE Fuel Retailing
BFEN0084
Datamonitor (Published May 2005) Page 17
This report is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
APPENDIX
Related products
European Forecourt Retailing Database
Covering over 20 forecourt retailing markets across western and central Europe, we
provide you with in-depth data regarding site numbers, market shares, fuel sales,
shop and car wash sales, all at the touch of a button. Updated annually, this versatile
database enables you to examine historic trends as well as forecasts to 2008, and
compare developments in market segments and competitor performances.
Key reasons to use this database
Dissect over 20 of Europe's markets into key categories including market
volumes, value and network analysis
Benchmark over 60 fuel retailers across Europe by comparing network
ownership, throughput, shop coverage and unmanned networks
Plan by using national forecasts to 2008 for site numbers and fuel volumes
Forecourt Retailing analyst contacts
Anne Marie Davis 0044 (0) 20 7675 7871 adavis@datamonitor.com
Andrew Hill 0044 (0) 20 7675 7096 adhill@datamonitor.com

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