INTRODUCTION

BODY

(A) WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY IN GLOBAL WARMING?

(A1) NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES RELATED TO

(A.1.1) GLACIERS, SEA, OCEANS AND RIVERS
(A.1.2) WEATHER
(A.1.3) FORESTS AND WILDFIRE
(A.1.4) AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION
(A.1.5) HEALTH AND DISEASES
(A.1.6) WATER AND LIVING STANDARD
(A.1.7) ECONOMY
(A.1.8) MIGRATION AND SPECIES
(A2) POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES RELATED TO
(A.2.1) ECONOMY
(A.2.2) AGRICULTURE
(A.2.3) HEALTH AND LIVING CONDITIONS

(B) WHAT IS BEING DONE TO MINIMIZE HARMFUL CHANGE IN FUTURE?

(B.1) IPCC & UNFCCC
(B.2) EARTH SUMMITS
(B.3) KYOTO PROTOCOL 1997

CONCLUSION

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FINAL FINISHED ESSAY

THE FUTURE OF MANKIND IN A GLOBAL WARMING PERSPECTIVE

INTRODUCTION
"Yesterday is impossible to recover, but tomorrow is in our hands to win or lose"
– Lydon B. Johnson. Scientific advancement and technology have revolutionized every
aspect of human life. With a click of button, information from the farthest corner of the
globe could be obtained within a fraction of second. Distances traveled in years are
reduced to hours. The imagination of the past is the reality of today. In fact, the advance
world of today is able to predict the probable future realities of life.
 Global warming and its effects as climate change are the growing concern of 6.5
billion people of this globe. Reports and findings of leading environmental scientists
reveal the rise in temperature of the globe. Besides, real life experience of unprecedented
change in weather phenomena makes one believe that global warming is a reality. That
leaves no doubt that temperature is going up, but the question is what one could
expect in future.

BODY

(A) WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY IN GLOBAL WARMING?

(A1) NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES RELATED TO

No place is free from the effects of the climate change. There are both negative
and positive consequences of global warming in future. Cost and benefit analysis
crystallizes the reality that cost outweigh benefit. Some regions would be in advantage
owing to favorable consequences. Nevertheless, a large part of the globe will face the
bitter consequences of the global warming.

(A.1.1) GLACIERS, SEA, OCEANS AND RIVERS

Like, surge in temperature will completely vanish Glaciers and Icecaps in
Northern and Southern poles. In fact, record melting of the glaciers has already
started, for instance, the fastest disappearing glaciers of Himalayas. Although not at
that pace, other glaciers of the globe are also quick in melting. Water from melted-
ice flows into rivers, lakes, canals, and finally moves into seas and oceans. An
excessive water flowing into the rivers forms devastating floods that engulf a large
portion of land besides innumerable loss of life. Therefore, future could be more
destructive and overwhelming if melting continues. IPCC report predicts more
inflicting floods for India, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

Water expands in volume by heat and water from fast melting glaciers will
reinforce the expansion of sea and ocean. According to IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change), sea-level rose to 5 to 10 inches in 20th century, and it
could rise to 40 inches in 21st century. Furthermore, a 40 inches rise in coastal water
level will submerge 17.5 percent of Bangladesh and 6 percent of the Netherlands.
The coastal population of poor countries will have only one option to migrate on
upper land; however, the richer countries will have to spend more on the
embankments. In fact, the report says if not properly dyked, a modest 20 inches rise
in water level will submerge 50 percent of the US coastal wet lands.

(A.1.2) WEATHER

IPCC assessment reports predicted that the temperature could rise on the
average 5.8 degree Celsius or 10.4 degree Fahrenheit by the year 2100. High
temperature will increase the rate of evaporation of vast water reservoirs in sea,
oceans, and rivers. More evaporation means more clouds and humid air. Both of
these conditions are highly favorable for heavy downpour. Frequent and heavy
rainfall erodes the soil, buildings, roads, and statues. Early rainfall will spoil the
cultivated land; thus, productivity of farmlands will affect. As humidity traps the
heat, therefore, nights will be hotter than the days.

Recently, not only the frequency of hurricanes has increased, but also their
intensity has become severe in turmoil. Number of Hurricanes developing in Atlantic
oceans has been double. Hurricane Katrina that struck the US in 2005 was one of the
deadliest in the US history. Formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane hit the US on
August 23, 2005, killing about 2000 people in New Orleans alone. In October 2004,
the deadliest typhoon hit Japan in which at least 70 people were dead.

In addition, heavy rainfall, floods, landslides, cyclones have affected at least

20 million in South Asia in 2007 monsoon and killed several thousands. All civic
services came to a halt in major cities like Mumbai, Karachi, and Hong Kong. Also, in
China, most of the places braced this century's most catastrophic flooding. At least
2.5 million people had to evacuate their homes and the damages surpassed 3 billions
dollars.

(A.1.3) FORESTS AND WILDFIRE

As some areas will see heavy downpour and flooding, the others will be facing
severe droughts. The consequence of prolong dry weather will be forest wildfires that
may damage a vast area of timberland besides other losses. In 2003, Europe saw
one of its most catastrophic forest wildfire, which killed 20 people, and destroyed
more than 420,000 hectares of forest and vegetations in Portugal.

Global warming at the same pace will devastate 1/3 of the forests of the
globe at the end of 21st century. Attack of pests will be unprecedented because of
their early maturation and low resistance of trees and plants. Frequent forest
wildfires will throw tons of Carbon dioxide into the atmosphere; hence, loss of trees
means loss in the absorption capacity of Carbon dioxide. However, Thomas Karl,
director of National Climate Change Centre, predicts that initially forests will increase
in area because of increase in the concentration of Carbon dioxide that acts as
fertilizer; but in the long-term, fire, pests, drought, diseases will reduce the capacity
of forests.

(A.1.4) AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION

A report published by the UN says that global warming will hit hard on poor
nations already short in their food supply. Droughts will negatively influence the
productivity. The areas in tropics and sub-tropics are more prone to temperature
fluctuation as compared to high latitude regions. However, overall agriculture
production of the globe will not have any significant change. For instance, some
areas will be more productive as Southern regions in Canada, but most regions in
Africa will suffer from drought and famine.

Robert Lester, founder of Earth Policy Institute, reported that agriculture yield
of wheat and rice would reduce by 10 percent with a 1 degree Celsius rise in
temperature. Furthermore, researchers in Carnegie Institution showed that from
1981 to 1998, one degree Centigrade rise in temperature had reduced the yield of
soybean and corns by 17 percent.

Consequently, low yield of agriculture in most of the regions will be a cause of

food inflation. Because of high prices, poor sections of society will not have a proper
diet. As a result, malnutrition and various diseases will affect the underprivileged
regions. The quick receding of glaciers will initially runoff the rivers, causing
widespread flooding that will devastate the agriculture farmlands. Later on, water
level will significantly decline and this will further worsen the misery, causing
shortage of water.

(A.1.5) HEALTH AND DISEASES

Deaths due to sunstroke and unbearable temperature are rising. Leaving
aside developing countries, the developed countries are not spared from temperature
related deaths. Hundreds of people have died from hot weather in Europe alone. The
statistics of developing countries is more gruesome. Global warming has made the
life difficult especially for elderly, patients, and children.

The rate of allergic reactions will increase. Prolong warm weather will affect
the daily consumables and perishable items. Chances of food poisoning will be
frequent with increase in the rate of microbial growth due to warming climate.
Disease of temperate areas such as Dengue fever, Yellow fever, Malaria,
Encephalitis, will be prevalent on such regions where these are absent today. In fact,
such disorders are frequently seen today in many places where they have been
unknown. Repetitive exposure to antibiotics in several microbial diseases will make
the pathogens resistant.

(A.1.6) WATER AND LIVING STANDARD

UN press release in June 2003 said, "about 1 billion people are without
potable water and 2.4 billions are devoid of sanitation." A study conducted by
UNESCO reported that fresh water constitutes 2.5 % of the Earth, and most of it
originates from glaciers and snow covers that collects in the river basins. After few
decades, the glaciers will disappear and rivers will dry. Much of the available fresh
water will contaminate due to extensive flooding. Unhygienic drinking water and
living circumstances will be a cause of several diseases; thus, more expenditure on
health. Water of rivers, seas, oceans will expand to the surface of the land. That will
reduce the living space; therefore, the shortage of land will significantly raise the
real estate cost and rent.

Consumption of the electricity will be high on air-conditioning as well as

refrigeration in industries, hospitals, offices, and homes; therefore, cost of
production and services will augment. The ultimate burden of the high prices of
goods and services will be consumers. Labor industry in temperate and hot regions
will be in severe stress and this will raise the labor cost. Vegetables, fruits, and other
perishable items will deteriorate fast because of warmer climate.

(A.1.7) ECONOMY
Not only the cost of living will rise on micro level, but also the economy will
be in severe strain on macro level. Floods, hurricanes, typhoons, and heavy rainfalls
will hamper the growth of poor countries. Furthermore, frequent load shedding will
hit the industrial progress and economy. Population of submerging coastal regions
will migrate upwards; therefore, in such regions the governments will be required to
provide for shelter and amenities of basic life to the migrants. Consequently, the
economy will weaken and decline, as they spend more on the outcomes of climate
change.

In future, governments will have to bear excessive infrastructure

maintenance expenditure on roads, railway lines, airport runways, pipelines.
Insurance companies will suffer severely because of climate change disasters.
World's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re and Swish Re, estimated in a
2002 study that climate change eventualities would cost insurance firms about 150
billion dollars in coming decade.

(A.1.8) MIGRATION AND SPECIES

Animals, plants and even the whole ecosystems are not free from climate
change disasters. To avoid the consequences, animals will migrate towards favorable
territories. Those species of animals that do not find a suitable place for migration
will die. Likewise, plants will also shift their places towards favorable ones. Research,
published in the journal "Nature", says that between 15 to 37 percent of all animals
species could extinct by 2050.

Migration timing, breeding, and feeding habitats of millions of birds will affect.
Some birds will arrive earlier at their places of migration. Therefore, for feeding, they
will not find their usual plant diet in mature form. They will feed on plant roots and it
will eradicate the source of their own future food supply and of other birds. Polar
bears in Arctic are declining in their number very fast. They need sea ice for mating
and hunting. Melting of sea ice is making life harder for these animals. Eventually, if
the melting continues, they will completely diminish in their population.

(A2) POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES RELATED TO

Global warming, with some of its harsh realities, does possess a few benefits;
however, smaller as compare to losses. The beneficiaries of such areas are smaller in
number than the temperate ones.
(A.2.1) ECONOMY
Reduced labor cost will benefit firms and corporations functioning in extreme
cold climate. Labor demands more wages and privileges in harsh working
environments. However, if temperature increases, then it will decline the total cost of
labor because workers will agree on taking less. A research estimated that in such
areas labor would be willing to give up annually $30 to $100 billion for a 2.5 degree
Centigrade increase in temperature. In addition, real estate in some regions will
boost many times in their value. It is because of widespread migration as well as loss
of land by flooding and submersion.

(A.2.2) AGRICULTURE
Research by National Science Foundation reveals that 12th and 14th centuries
temperature of the planet was 0.5 degree Centigrade warmer than it is today. For
this reason, Norse settlers were able to cultivate profusely in America, Europe and
Southern regions of Greenland. The temperature that IPCC has predicted between
2030 and 2050 is similar in that nature of 13th and 14th centuries. Therefore, it is
probable that Greenland and other regions will be cultivable again. Moreover, Carbon
dioxide acts as a fertilizer, because it reduces the rate of evaporation, and helps in
photosynthesis; therefore, this could be beneficial in increasing the productivity of
the farmlands.
(A.2.3) HEALTH AND LIVING CONDITIONS
Rise in temperature will be of some benefits for regions where climate is
extremely cold for whole of the year. For instance, warmer climate in the US will reduce
40,000 deaths per year on 2.5 degrees Centigrade rise in temperature and medical costs
caused by low temperature will reduce by 20$ billion annually.
(B) WHAT IS BEING DONE TO MINIMIZE HARMFUL CHANGE IN FUTURE?

Although global warming has some benefits, yet the loss that will probably incur
in near future outweighs the advantages. Consequently, after realizing the ultimate future
threats of climate change, one would think of the solution for avoiding such devastations.
Therefore, the responsibility lies for tackling the climate change consequences from an
individual to nation states. World Summits, Kyoto Protocol, and UNFCCC (United
Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change) are some of the steps taken in that
direction.
(B.1) IPCC & UNFCCC
Established by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and UNEP (United
Nation Environment Protection Agency), IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change) provides the information on global warming and climate change. It is mainly a
collaboration of the leading environmental scientists of the world.

IPCC successfully formulated UNFCCC (United Nation Convention on Climate

Change) in 1990 and published four of its reports on climate change. The UNFCCC,
adopted by the UN in 1992, lays the policy framework for handling the climate change
issues. IPCC first report published in 1990; a supplementary report in 1992; second
assessment report (SAR) in 1995; third assessment report (TAR) in 2001; and a fourth
assessment (AR4) report in 2007.

(B.2) EARTH SUMMITS

June 1994 was unique in history because for the first time 170 countries
participated in discussions related to environment protection and global warming. The
meeting took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and a declaration called "Rio Declaration"
was announced. Rio declaration called for the greater cooperation in the development of
environment friendly economies, and for that, the developed countries pledged to support
the developing nations in their quest for resolving environmental issues.
(B.3) KYOTO PROTOCOL 1997
Later on in 1997, 160 nations assembled in a city of Japan, Kyoto, where they
developed a consensus on a treaty called "Kyoto Protocol" for reducing the greenhouse
gas emissions. The treaty requires the 38 developed countries, which release 55% percent
of total global emission of greenhouse gases annually, to reduce their Carbon dioxide
emissions 5 % lower than 1990. The treaty would be effective in February 2005.

Under Kyoto Protocol, European Union and Japan agreed on 8% and 6%

reductions respectively. However, the US initially promised on 7% reduction, but later
on, in 2001, the newly elected US president George W. Bush got back of the promise. He
said that reduction in greenhouse would be harmful for the US economy. Besides, he
objected that the treaty did not bind all the developing nations to reduce Carbon dioxide
emission.

Whatever the differences, however, the Kyoto Protocol is an excellent treaty for
controlling greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the point system in the treaty gives
advantages to the nations who are unable to reduce further emissions; they could
purchase emission credits from other fully compliant nations.

CONCLUSION
To conclude, global warming is a reality and the future is not supposed to be a
good omen. However, there is some positive side of global warming but the negative one
outweighs it. That future is not far away, in fact, it is knocking at the doors of humanity.
Thousands of people are dying every year because of climate change. Widespread
flooding, heavy rainfall, intense heat, frequent and severe hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes
etc, are showing a glimpse of future devastations. A consolidated and collective effort of
all the nations in the world is the best alternative solution.