Strategic baggage

M Saeed Khalid
The News,Tuesday, June 10, 2014
From Print Edition


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Early June has been particularly hectic on the domestic front. Ishaq Dars
business-friendly budget remained in the limelight very briefly as it was quickly overtaken by
other developments like the raid on Altaf Bhais London residence, his arrest and the consequent
shut down of the countrys economic capital. The six-week-long turmoil in the private media
reached a crescendo with the temporary closure, this time official, of Geo News.

However, all this has been overtaken by an intensification of the terrorists war against the
people and the state of Pakistan, like the daring attack near the capital resulting in five deaths
including two army colonels. The sectarian killers staged another murderous attack on Shia
pilgrims.

Then came the attack against Karachi airport on Sunday night, which will go down as one of the
most audacious acts of terrorism in the country. It naturally brings into focus the need to review
the strategy to deal with the terror networks including a possible revival of talks with the TTP.

The latest attacks raise questions over the federal governments decision to hand over
responsibility to the army for operations against the terrorists as well as to hold talks through the
tribal elders. The corps commander at Peshawar is being assisted in the talks by the governor of
KP. This is an interesting departure from the earlier method of conducting talks with the help of
religious figures.

However, the mechanism of setting up committees and talking through intermediaries failed to
progress beyond a temporary truce and decline in terrorist attacks. The process petered out,
because among others, the army had been left out of the loop.

The new intended permutation of talks, aiming to return to the format of 2006-07 puts the army
in the driving seat, supports the tribal elders and governors role to try once again to restore the
governments writ. The government negotiators are holding a stick and some carrots, with the
expulsion of foreign terrorists a major objective.

As a result of these contacts, a full-fledged military operation is likely to be delayed though not
ruled out. The calculated army action and air strikes so far have the militants on the run
hundreds having moved across the border into Afghanistan. They continue to plan and launch
attacks in Pakistan. Besides, thousands of common people have been rendered homeless. The
situation is complicated by the movement of many tribal families to live with relatives on the
Afghan side.

In the midst of reports of civil-military tensions in Pakistan, news from Peshawar indicates that
the two have reached an understanding how to handle the situation in the tribal areas bordering
Afghanistan just as the transition in that country gathers momentum. As usual, the situation has
been vitiated by Afghan accusations about Pakistans interference.

Accusations of interference are not confined to Pakistan nor are such actions the monopoly of
any one country. The US was the first to develop these assets by providing funds, technical
expertise and weapons to the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet forces. Since the Soviet
withdrawal from Afghanistan, a number of countries notably Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran
have been helping their favourite factions in Afghanistan.

The situation changed radically after 9/11 when US forces occupied Kabul with the help of the
Northern Alliance, pushing the Al-Qaeda rank and file as well as many Afghan Taliban into
Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban grew out of this jihadi environment but their assault on the
states authority and later spreading attacks across Pakistan earned them the title of the bad
Taliban.

Thus began a gradual process of weaning away. The terrorists retaliated by stepping up their
attacks, hitting in the process the army headquarters as well as naval and air bases. A significant
toughening of the armys stance vis--vis the militants has been witnessed since the change of
command in the army as of September, 2013.

Ironically, this determination of the military high command to take on the TTP and allies came
after the strongly anti-militancy parties in power were replaced by the PML-N in Islamabad and
the PTI in Peshawar both strongly in favour of talks with the militants.

The events of the past few days have confirmed that, irrespective of what happens in
Afghanistan, the army is now determined more than ever to bring an end to the stranglehold of
Pakistani and foreign militants in North Waziristan. There is a parallel phenomenon of Afghan
and Indian secret services helping those Pakistan Taliban commanders who are opposed to the
talks to launch attacks on Pakistani territory. The two are also cooperating in helping the
insurgents in Baluchistan.

As the US and allied forces leave, the Afghan Taliban who took refuge in Pakistan are likely to
return to help their comrades within Afghanistan. A new round of proxy wars involving
Afghanistan, India and Pakistan through their strategic assets has appeared on the horizon.
However, if you approach the problem from a peacemakers viewpoint, these assets are more
like strategic excess baggage that will hinder efforts for reconciliation in Afghanistan as well as
the search of a modus Vivendi between Afghanistan and its neighbours.

If peace and reconciliation have to come to Afghanistan, the leaders and intelligence agencies of
these countries have to come up with a new plan. Failing this, we should brace for more trouble
ahead. Pakistan stands to be the second main sufferer for being most closely interwoven with
Afghanistan every which way.