FredHickeyTheHighTechStrategist

BarronsTheArtofSuccessfulInvestingConferenceOctober21,2013
Thetechconferencecallsthisquarterwerealmostexclusivelybad
PCcompaniesseeingdoubledigitdeclinesinsales
IBMhashad7quartersofmissesnow,weaknessinChina
Thesmartphonemarketiscommoditizingveryrapidly
Googlesearningsbeat[sentthestockfrom$890to$1000]wasnotabeatatall
o Theybeatrevisedestimatesbutwerestillbelowtheoriginalearningsestimates
o Believestechinvestorsarehungryforgrowthbuttheyrenotgettingitathistorical
levels
o Googlesgrowthwasonly11%
Thetechindustrysdesperationforgrowthinamoneyprintingenvironmentisnotagoodsign
o Teradata(TDC)shouldbewinningrightnowbutitsnot
Thismarketisnotlikethe2000s.
o The2000swereextremelyinsane.Nowitsjustinsane.
o 2/3rdsoftechIPOshavenoearnings
ShortAmazon(AMZN)fortheupcomingearningsrelease
PracticingwhathecalledGuerillaShorting
o Shorttermtechshortsbeforeearningsreleasesplayingthetrendofunderperforming
techearningsannouncements
Therehasbeenalotofwealthcreatedsincethelowsbutallofthiswealthhasbeenfunneledto
averysmallgroupofpeople.
Madetheobservationthatthereisallsortsoftalkaboutgoingtothecloudandhowitsthe
waveofthefuture,butinfact,thestocksandtheindustryarestillextremelysmall.
Heisbullishaboutsomecompaniesbuttheirpricesaretoohigh
Telecomequipmentisagoodsectortobelong
o Sprint,ITT,Vodafone
AAPLestimatesarewaydown,seesabeatnextannouncement
3Dprintingisthenextbigthingbutitcouldeasilybe10yearsaway.
Wearablesmaybecomeagrowingproductcategorybutsofartheproductsonthemarketare
notveryexciting[GoogleGlass,SamsungGalaxyGearWatch]
o NotrulingoutAAPLcreatingthiscategoryliketheyhavedoneothersinthepast
HesaidyearsagothatBlackberrywouldsufferalongandpainfuldeathandhewasright
Whengoldhititspeak,itwasoverextendedandweshouldhaveexpectedacorrectionafter
compoundingat15%
In197576therewasasimilarcorrectioninGoldbeforeitwenthigher
o Peoplethoughttheproblemswerefixedbuttheywerentsimilartotoday
Goldisntgoingtoreflectthefundamentalsuntilthereisabigdeclineinsomeoftheinflated
assets
Usesgoldasahedge,doesntwanttoownitbutfeelshehasto
ChinesespendingatU.S.techcompaniesisdownsignificantlysincetheSnowdenrevelations.
Solarisaterribleindustrytheeconomicsjustarentthere