TreyReikBristolInvestmentPartners:Gold:endoferaorfatpitch?

GrantsInterestRateObserverFall2013ConferenceOctober22,2013
Nonfinancialcreditisthebestindicatorofdebtlevels
o Nonfinancialcreditisdefinedastheloansthatfinancialinstitutionsmaketonon
financialinstitutions
o Financialcreditisunreliablebecauseitsometimesdoublecountsloansmade
betweenfinancialinstitutions
o Nonfinancialcreditisanunequivocalclaimonfutureearnings
InflationisnotshowingupintheCPIbutitsdefinitelyshowingupinfinancialassets
o QEwasexplicitlycreatedtoinflatethevalueofteasuries
Goldwentupfor9yearsbeforeQEbegan
o Thisislargelyafunctionoftheincreasingnonfinancialdebtlevels
Goldisdownrightnowbecause
o CPInotshowinginflation
o Everyonethinksthingsaregettingbetter
o Dollarisstable
o Beliefthateconomyisdeleveraging
o Dollarhasbeenstable
Allcapitalformationcomesfromsavings
FedisdoingQEtopropupthedebt,nottoreachfullunemployment
o Needtoadd$2trilliontononfinancialdebteveryyearbyhisestimatetokeepthe
marketsfromcollapsing
Nonewdebtceiling
o Manypeopledontknowthisbutthedealwasactualtonotenforcethedebt
ceiling,nottoraiseit
o ie.theycanspendwhatevertheywantuntilFebruary
ThegoldthatlefttheGLDisnowinAsia
o WhenGLDgoesdownthatmeanssomeonewantedthegold
o WhenCOMEXcollapses,itsbecausesomeonetookdelivery
o Chinahasboughtormined3000tonsinthepast3years
Believestheyretakinggovernmentownershipupto10000tons
GoldinIndiaissubjecttoa10%importtax
o PhysicalgoldpricesinIndiaare$300higher
DoesntlikelargergoldminerslikeABX
o Goingtohaveadifficulttimereplacingreserves