RELI ABI LI TY ENGI NEERI NG UNI T

ASST4403
Lec t ur e 21 RELI ABI LI TY TESTI NG
Learning outcomes g
What reliability testing is for
What the consumer and producer must agree on
The types of test plans The types of test plans
Reliability demonstration through acceptance/
qualification testing qualification testing
The consumers and producers risk
Zero failure test
Reliability Testing Reliability Testing
Performed against the System Specification in the g y p
Contract.
R lt i d i i t t j t t Results in a decision to accept or reject systems.
Reliabilityis not a deterministic quantity like speed Reliability is not a deterministic quantity like speed,
weight , etc
Reliability is stochastic (Random or chance process)
The Paradox: The true reliability is only known at the The Paradox: The true reliability is only known at the
end of service (i.e. when it is too late!)
3
Reliability Testing Reliability Testing
In planning a reliability demonstration, the producer p g y , p
and customer must agree on:
o Test Method (including parameters for testing) o Test Method (including parameters for testing).
o Level of risk each is willing to agree on.
o Test environment o Test environment.
o Failure definitions.
o Mission profiles. p
Testing should be performed under test conditions
that simulate the actual use environment.
4
Reliability Demonstration Test
Plans
Fixed Length Test Fixed Length Test
Probabilistic Ratio Sequential Test (PRST)
5
Fixed Length Test Plan Fixed Length Test Plan
Should be used when the exact length and cost Should be used when the exact length and cost
of the test must be known beforehand and when
it is necessary to demonstrate a specific it is necessary to demonstrate a specific
reliability or MTTF to a predetermined
confidence level as well as reach an confidence level, as well as reach an
accept/reject decision
6
Probabilistic Ratio Sequential
Test
The equipment is tested until an accept or reject
decision is reached where the test duration
depends on the number of failures experienced,
(allows early accept or reject decision to be made)
7
Acceptance Risks p
Consumers Risk Acceptance when the item is Bad
Type I Error | risk
Producers Risk Rejection when the itemis Good Producer s Risk Rejection when the item is Good
Type II Error o risk
Accept Item Reject Item
Item Good OK Type II
Item Bad Type I OK
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Reliability Demonstrations Reliability Demonstrations
Measuring Reliability seeks to answer the question
Wh t i th t li bilit f th d t? What is the true reliability of the product?
The question we are asking is how can I be sure q g
the reliability is satisfactory?
Demonstrating reliability uses hypothesis testing Demonstrating reliability uses hypothesis testing,
therefore, the demonstrations are designed to
accept or reject a hypothesis within acceptable
i k risks.
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Binomial acceptance testing
To demonstrate the asset reliability at T is R
1
(R(T) R ) (R(T)=R
1
)
n units on test and X failures observed by time T
Desired reliability is demonstrated if Xs r
Otherwise, we conclude that R(T)<R
1
Test plan: based on specifying n and r for p p y g
acceptance
Consumers risk | and producers risk o
X has a binomial probability distribution with
t d 1 R (R t li bilit t T) parameter n and p=1-R (R=true reliability at T)
We desire: find values for n and r that will result a
high probability of acceptance if R(T)=R
1
A lowprobability of acceptance if R(T)=R
2
<R
1
A low probability of acceptance if R(T) R
2
R
1
o =probability of incorrectly rejecting
| =probability of incorrectly accepting
The problem to solve The problem to solve
Our task: specify R
1
, R
2
, o and |, find n and r to
satisfy the above (in)equations satisfy the above (in)equations
Easier to specify R
1
, R
2
, n and r, solve for 1- o and
||
Using trial and error, repeat until values for n and r
are found
Example
Solve for 1- o and | for combinations
of n and r to generate some reliability
acceptance plans. Let o<0.1 and
|<0.1.
Solution: let R
1
=0.99, R
2
=0.9, n=50,
r=1, we have
Since o=0.089<0.1 and |=0.034<0.1,
it is an acceptable plan
Alternatives can be found Alternatives can be found
Zero Failure Tests e o a u e ests
If we test n samples for t time and have no failures we can p
accept a product with the predetermined risk that we may have
accepted products with the defined characteristic life.
Products with a higher characteristic life will have a higher
probability of passing the test.
Products with a lower characteristic life will have a lower
probability of passing the test. probability of passing the test.
14
Developing a Demonstration Developing a Demonstration
The simplest demonstration is a Zero Failure The simplest demonstration is a Zero Failure
demonstration, that is, r=0.
A number of samples are tested for a specified period
of time. After the specified time if no failures have
occurred the product is accepted as meeting the
requirement.
For this demonstration we need to determine the:
Test length
Sample size
Acceptable risk
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Acceptable risk
For Weibull distribution For Weibull distribution
The reliability function for a Weibull distribution is: The reliability function for a Weibull distribution is:
shape
t
|
|
|

|
t
e R
q
|
.
|

\
|

=
R = The probability of failure free operation (for a given
time t). )
t = operating time.
q characteristic life (q >0) q = characteristic life (q >0).
|
shape
= shape parameter (|
shape
> 0).
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For Weibull distribution
When several items are tested the reliability function When several items are tested the reliability function
for a Weibull distribution is:
shape shape shape shape
t
n
t t t
e e e e R
|
q
|
q
|
q
|
q
|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|

= = * * *
n = The number of items tested n = The number of items tested
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For Weibull distribution For Weibull distribution
Select the minimum characteristic life that is acceptable or the
hi h t h t i ti lif th t ld ll b d highest characteristic life that we would call bad.
Determine the risk we are prepared to take of accepting a g
product with this characteristic life.
This risk is the probability of a badproduct having no failures This risk is the probability of a bad product having no failures
during the test.
Assuming we have an estimate for shape parameter | and
shape
t
n
|
|
.
|

\
|

Assuming we have an estimate for shape parameter |

shape
and
a known sample size, the risk is:
n
e
q
|
.

\
= Risk
The equation is solved for t, the only unknown.
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The equation is solved for t, the only unknown.
Example: Zero Failure Tests p
For example if we are willing to take a 10%risk of For example if we are willing to take a 10% risk of
accepting a product with a defined bad q and |
shape
=
2 and can test 100 items: 2 and can test 100 items:
2
100
10 . 0
|
.
|

\
|

=
q
t
e
2
| |
2
100 10 . 0 ln
|
.
|

\
|
=
q
t
023 0
|
|

|
t
023 . 0 =
|
.
|

\
|
q
t
q 15 . 0 = t
100 samples are tested for time = 1.5q. If there are no
failures the product is accepted
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failures the product is accepted.
Balancing the Risks g
To formulate a test that satisfies both risks proceed as To formulate a test that satisfies both risks proceed as
follows:
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Balancing the Risks - Exponential
The assumption of a constant failure rate for the The assumption of a constant failure rate for the
exponential distribution permits us to derive a test
allowing for failures by using the Poisson formula: allowing for failures by using the Poisson formula:
( )
( )
( )
e u
u
r

( )
( )
! r
e u
r P =
! r
Where: Where:
P(r) = the probability of exactly r events
u = the expected (mean) number of events
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u the expected (mean) number of events
Balancing the Risks - Exponential
Knowing the expected number of failures in time t = Knowing the expected number of failures in time t
t/q, the probability of exactly r failures with time equal
to t is: to t is:
t
t
r
|
.
|

\
|

|
|

|
q
( )
!
e
t
r P
. \
|
.
|

\
|
=
q
q
( )
! r
Note: q=MTTF for exponential
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Balancing the Risks - Exponential
If we test to time =t and r failures are allowed the If we test to time t and r failures are allowed the
probability of passing the test (consumers risk for q
1
=
badMTTF) is: bad MTTF) is:
|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
r
t
i
e
t
1
q
( )

=
|
.

\
= =
r
i
i
e
r P
0
1
!
q
|
By allowing a different number of failures, all of which
id t bl ' i k provide an acceptable consumer's risk we can
formulate a test that is acceptable (almost) to both
ti
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parties.
Balancing the Risks - Exponential
If we test to time =t and r failure are allowed the If we test to time t and r failure are allowed the
probability of passing the test (producers risk for q
2
=
goodMTTF) is: good MTTF) is:
|
|

|
| |
t
i
( )

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
= =
r
t
i
e
t
r P
2
!
1
2
q
q
o ( )

= i
i
0
!
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Example: Fixed Length Test a p e: ed e gt est
Assume a plan with (exponential TTF):
a consumers risk of 20%(| =0 2)
We fix |=0.2
using q
1
first
a consumer s risk of 20% (| = 0.2)
a producers risk of 20% (o = 0.2)
required MTTFs of 500hrs (q
1
=500hrs) and (q
2
=1000hrs)
g q
1
Solving for zero failures gives t = 805hrs but o = 0.553
Solving for one failure gives t = 1497hrs but o = 0.441
Calculat
e o
Solving for two failures gives t = 2140hrs but o = 0.361
Solvingfor three failures gives t =2758hrs but o =0 299
using q
2
Solving for three failures gives t = 2758hrs but o = 0.299
Solving for four failures gives t = 3360hrs but o = 0.248
Solving for five failures gives t = 3953hrs but o = 0.208
Although this iterative method is tedious it can be done on a
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oug s e a e e od s edous ca be do e o a
spreadsheet relatively quickly once the formulas are entered.