FORECASTING RAGWEED

POLLEN DISPERSAL IN
EUROPE
Branko ikoparija, Michel Thibaudon,
Carsten A. Skjth, Matt Smith
Research Group Aerobiology and Pollen
Information
Department of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology
What to forecast?
1. The beginning of the exposure
(Start of pollen season)
e.g. Laaidi, 2003
2. The intensity of exposure
(daily or bi-hourly pollen concentration)
BASED ON HEALTH IMPACT OF RAGWEED POLLEN:
Observation-orientated models
Predict daily concentrations based on
regularity of flowering phenophaze and
environmental factors influencing its
development
Using mathematical models helps in taking into
consideration all important factors
Traditionaly by relating pollen concentrations to
measurable/predictable variable using various
statistical procedure:
Regression analysis
Time-series analysis
Computational intelligence techniques
(e.g. neural networks)
e.g.
Makra et al., 2011 using Time-series analysis
Predictors: pollen concentration of the previous
day, precipitation, temperature, wind
Stark et al., 1997 using Regression analysis
Predictors: rainfall, wind speed, temperature,
time measured from the start of the season
Pollen concentration =
local source flowering + pollen transport
Source-orientated models
take into consideration both knowledge of source conditions and
diffusion and dispersion of airborne particles.
Mathematical formulae of diffusion are used to calculate
concentrations at various distances from the source or release site.
HU vs. D
All sources
Source inventory
COSMO-ART (Zink et al., 2011)
red = proportion of correct scores
Location and amount of sources in a grid the biggest uncertainty
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Airborne pollen modelling studies
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EMISSION PATTERN
Conclusion
COSMO-ART (Zink et al., 2011)
CHIMERE (Chaxel, 2011))
ragweed pollen
concentrations simulated by
COSMO-ART and CHIMERE
models and presented using
geostatistics
Refferences (small print):
Chaxel, E., C. Rieux, C., Rios, I., Thibaudon, M., Oliver, G. 2012., Modeling the 2011 ragweed season in the French
region Rhne-Alpes with the dispersion model CHIMERE. 2ndIRC Lyon, France
Chaxel, E 2011., Modelling Ambrosia pollen in the air : Forecast and prospective. ATOPICA meeting (LSCE, Saclay)
Efstathiou, C., Isukapalli, S., Georgopoulos, P. 2011. A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large-scale
emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens. Atmospheric Environment 45, 2260-2276.
.
Helbig, N., Vogel, B., Vogel, H., Fiedler, F., 2004. Numerical modelling of pollen dispersion on the regional scale.
Aerobiologia 20, 3-19.
Kawashima, S., Takahashi, Y., 1999. An improved simulation of mesoscale dispersion of airborne cedar pollen using a
flowering-time map. Grana 38, 316-324.
Laaidi M, Thibaudon M, Besancenot JP 2003 Two statistical approaches to forecasting the start and duration of the
pollen season of Ambrosia in the area of Lyon (France). Int J Biometeorol 48:6573.
Pasken, R., Pietrowicz, J., 2005. Using dispersion and mesoscale meteorological models to forecast pollen
concentrations. Atmospheric Environment 39, 7689-7701.
Prank, M., Sofiev, M., Chapman, D. 2012., Emission and dispersion of the ragweed pollen in Europe: first results and
evaluation of the SILAM model. 2ndIRC Lyon, France
Schueler, S., Schlnzen, K., 2006. Modeling of oak pollen dispersal on the landscape level with a mesoscale
atmospheric model. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 11, 179-194.
Sofiev, M., Siljamo, P., Ranta, H., Rantio-Lehtimki, A., 2006. Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air
transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study. International Journal of Biometeorology 50,
392-402.
Stark, P., Ryan, L., McDonald, J., Burhe, H. 1997. Using meteorologic data to predict daily ragweed pollen levels.
Aerobiologia 13, 177-184
Vogel, H., Pauling, A., Vogel, B., 2008. Numerical simulation of birch pollen dispersion with an operational weather
forecast system. International Journal of Biometeorology 52, 805-814.
Zink, K., Vogel, H., Vogel, B., Magyar, D., Kottmeier, C. 2011 Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia
L.pollen with the model system COSMO-ART. Int J Biometeorol, DOI 10.1007/s00484-011-0468-8
Thank You!!
Research Group Aerobiology and Pollen Information
Department of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology