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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine


covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock


picks, and commentary can be found HERE.

Suttmeier's Four in Four video can be watched on the web HERE.

November 24, 2009 – The Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile is today’s key data

The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, the NABE is too optimistic, Quantitative Easing
should be allowed to sunset, and a new trend in bank mergers.
The Third Quarter FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile is released this morning at 10:00 AM
The economic calendar shows several economic reports out today including: Preliminary Real
GDP for Q3 2009, which should be revised downward from 3.5% in last month’s advanced
reading. Some say the downside revision could be below 3%, which will not be expected by the
market.
The Case / Shiller home price index should continue to show a year over year decline, but
sequential increases should continue. This data is for September when the first time home
buyer $8,000 tax credit was in full swing.
On Monday, Existing Home Sales was up 10.1% to 6.1 million units. This data was bulged with
33% from first time home buyers and 30% from distressed sales. This takes demand from new
home sales, which has been a drag on the home builders.
Consumer Confidence for November should remain under 50, but even if it is not it will be well
below 90 to 120, which is the neutral zone for confidence.
Not on anyone’s economic calendar is the most important release – The Q3 2009 FDIC
Quarterly Banking Profile, which will be my leading indicator to justify my call that “The Great
Credit Crunch” will continue through 2011 and into 2012.

The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile is the most important data I study, as this is the balance
sheet for the US economy and is a leading indicator for GDP growth.
The NABE says “The Great Recession is over”
I have to disagree with this group of prominent economists once again. I say “The Great Credit
Crunch” will continue though 2011 maybe 2012.
The NABE says that GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2010. By the end of 2010 they expect GDP to
return to its all time high of $14.55 trillion. Not with deteriorating assets in the banking system.
The NABE says job losses will bottom out in the first quarter 2010. Not with continued layoffs
that we seem to hear about or read about recently.
The NABE represents Wall Street firms. Wall Street still does not realize the problems of Main
Street.
St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard wants the Fed to extend quantitative easing
He’s pressing the law concerning Conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Conservatorship is supposed to begin to unwind the portfolios of the GSEs in 2010, and the
Fed has already pushed the law by extending the purchase of mortgages and debt of Fannie
and Freddie to the end of the first quarter of 2010. I guess this is just another law our banking
regulators choose to ignore.
People's United Financial to Acquire Financial Federal Corp
People’s United (PBCT) will pay $738 million for Financial Federal, which is not an FDIC-
insured financial institution. Perhaps this is a new trend, where community and regional banks
buy financial companies such as credit unions to dilute bad assets and place the purchased
deposits under the guarantee of the FDIC. I have not seen a statement from the FDIC on this
transaction.
Send me your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on
our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Check out Forex TV’s Markets Review, which is also available HERE.

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Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website
www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of
equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products
include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to
www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample issues of my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

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