POLI 211 Notes, 2/26

Rally-round-the-Flag Effect: The public will support the leader in times of crisis, giving them a

Influence of Vietnam Protests: the Folklore
Protests influenced public opinion influenced policy.
This is unlikely. Most people did not like the protesters, and Korea and Vietnams
popularity follow the same path, mostly in a negative correlation to how many Americans have
died in the war.
Support for the war may have been inaccurately measured. Pollers at the time asked the
Mistake Question: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do
you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam? A person could
have been opposed to entering but could currently support the conflict.


3/14

Terrorism: Non-state actors using violence to incite fear. Different from international
crime, warfare, and guerillas.
International Crime: For financial profit.
Warfare: Between state actors.
Guerillas: Restricted to a territory.
Bush Doctrine: can strike first if terrorists are a threat.
Idealism: Supports building IGOs. Overcoming individual sovereignty. Self-
determination is a big deal, and equality between countries.


3/17

Leaders Management Style:
Formalistic- Can only hear one opinion. Info boiled down to one recommendation.
Competitive- Get two opposing opinions and let them argue it out.
Collegial- Diversity of opinion without argument.

Study of Individuals
Method Strength Weaknesses
Biography Detail
Focus on specifics
Put in own terms
Generalizations are difficult
Can you get enough info?
Aberrant Personality Theory-based
Can generalize
Assumes all leaders are
mentally ill
Need info (perhaps from
childhood?)
Traits/Dimension Less info needed
Better sources
Closer to political career
Superficial
Usually analysis after the fact
Bargaining Strategies
Appease- Escalating positive inducements.
Reciprocate- Respond in kind to last action taken by opponent.
Bully- Escalating negative inducements.


Impact of Background Conditions on Chances of War
Condition Chances of War?
States contiguous Increases
Relatively even in capability Increases
Major powers on both sides Increases
Arms Competition (non-nuclear) Increases
Allied to each other Decreases
Both wealthy and growing (economies) Decreases
Both democracies Decreases
Trade a lot with each other Decreases

Impact of Past Conflict on Chances of War
Condition Chances of War?
Enduring rivalry (used force before) Increases
Success; repeat bargaining strategy ??? (Stoll said either/or can happen)
Failure; a tougher bargaining strategy Increases

Cause of Dispute
Condition Chances of War?
High politics issue; territory Increases
States join disupte; they are contiguous Increases
Use of bullying strategy Increases
Stressless rational decisions Increases
Major power(s) intervene Decreases
Firm but fair bargaining strategy Decreases

Stress, trade, and the type of government all play no role in Realist theory.

Steps to War, 1816-1945
States contend over territorial issues
Both sides get allies
Engage in repeated crises; becomes a rivalry
Engage in arms race
Later crisis escalates to war.

Steps to War, 1946-1989
Arms races do not lead to war.
States contend over territorial issues.
Rivalry is curvilinear.
Both sides get allies, reduces chance of war.
Steps to War, 1990-2001
Like 1816-1945 time period.
States contend over territorial issues
Both sides get allies
Engage in repeated crises; becomes a rivalry
Engage in arms race
Later crisis escalates to war.

Why dont people make a deal to avoid war? Avoid bloodshed, just make an agreement based on
the predicted outcome of the war. But its not that easy
Both sides keep private information and secrets so no one knows for sure what they
might do, and who might win.
Power balances can change, so there is a commitment problem.
Indivisibility issues. Territories can theoretically be split up but its usually all-or-nothing
in the real world.

Why does trade reduce conflict?
Costs of breaking mutually beneficial bonds
Interactions leads to greater knowledge about the other state
Can use economic relationship as leverage, rather than force

The concept of Democratic Peace is non-Realist.