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TrajStat: GIS-based software that uses various trajectory

statistical analysis methods to identify potential sources from


long-term air pollution measurement data

Y. Q. Wang 1*, X. Y. Zhang1, Roland R. Draxler 2

1
Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services,
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

2
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA

Corresponding Author:

Dr. Yaqiang Wang


Center for Atmosphere watch and services, Chinese Academy of Meteorological
Sciences
46, Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081, China

Email: wangyq@cams.cma.gov.cn

Fax: +86-10-62176414

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Abstract: Statistical analysis of air mass back trajectories combined with long-term

ambient air pollution measurements are useful tools for source identification. Using

these methods, the geographic information system (GIS) based software, TrajStat, was

developed to view, query, and cluster the trajectories and compute the potential source

contribution function (PSCF) and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) analyses

when measurement data are included. The paper presents the software structure and

computational details. An example application of the software is shown to identify the

sources and dust pathways to Jiuquan in springtime. The results indicate that the dust

mainly come from west of Jiuquan via the Taklimakan desert and the Kumtag desert.

Keywords: Trajectory Statistics, GIS, Clustering, PSCF, CWT

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Software availability

Program title: TrajStat —Trajectory Statistics.

Developer: Yaqiang Wang.

Contact address: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46, Zhong-Guan-Cun

South Avenue, Beijing, 100081, China. Email: wangyq@cams.cma.gov.cn.

Availability: Freely available at http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/hysplit4.html.

First available: 2008.

Hardware required: PC.

Software required: MS Windows with Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0 installed.

Program language: Visual Basic.

Program size: 9.3 MB.

1. Introduction

Identification of pollutant sources using ambient air quality data is essential for

air pollution management. Air mass back trajectory analysis is frequently used to

point out the direction and sources of air pollution at a receptor site (José et al., 2005;

Rousseau et al., 2004). Trajectory position error is typically considered to be about

20% of the traversed distance (Stohl, 1998), but the statistical uncertainty will be

reduced with large sets of trajectories. Trajectory clustering techniques, which assign

trajectories into representative spatial groups, is a popular method to combine the

flow climatology and pollutant transport pathways with particle or gas measurements

at a sampling station (Dorling et al., 1992; Sirois and Bottenheim, 1995).

Another trajectory-based approach for source identification was developed in

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1980’s by computing the potential source contribution function (PSCF), also called

residence time analysis (RTA). The PSCF is a conditional probability function to

calculate and describe possible source locations using back trajectories (Ashbaugh et

al., 1985). This method tends to give good angular resolution but poor radial

resolution because the trajectories converge as they approach the receptor

(Vasconcelos et al., 1996). A limitation of the PSCF method is that grid cells can have

the same PSCF value when sample concentrations are either only slightly higher or

much higher than the criterion. As a result, it can be difficult to distinguish moderate

sources from strong ones.

The concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), also called a concentration field

(CF), can more easily distinguish source strength by assigning the concentration

values at the receptor site to their corresponding trajectories (Seibert et al., 1994). The

mean or logarithmic mean concentration is computed and used as weight for the

residence time of the trajectory in each grid cell. In CWT method, a measured

concentration is assigned equally to all segments of its trajectory, but sources of the

air pollutants are often concentrated in “hot spots”. Using the redistributed CWT field,

a refined method called residence-time weighted concentrations (RTWC) was

developed (Stohl, 1996) to account for the hot-spots.

Considering the uncertainties of trajectories, Keeler and Samson (Keeler and

Samson, 1989) developed the quantitative transport bias analysis (QTBA). When

applied to multi-site data, QTBA fields were overlaid to locate the sources (Keeler

and Samson, 1989). Based on the coupling of residence time analysis and a known

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emission inventory, the relative source contribution function (RSCF) was developed

to show the contribution of different kinds of sources (Lin and Chang, 2002). PSCF

and CWT methods have been used widely in recent published studies (Abbott et al.,

2008; Begum et al., 2005; Hsu et al., 2003; Park et al., 2008).

For air mass trajectory visualization and statistical analysis applications, a new

software application called TrajStat was developed in which a geographic information

systems (GIS) technique was used for spatial data management, visualization and

analyses. This paper will describe the structure and functions of the software and

demonstrate its use to determine the sources of dust to Jiuquan in spring time.

2. Methods

3.1. Trajectory calculation

In TrajStat, the trajectory calculation function comes from the Hybrid

Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT ) (Draxler and

Hess, 1998). The trajectory model, although included with the TrajStat distribution

and integrated into the GIS, is an external process to the TrajStat software.

In the HYSPLIT trajectory calculation, a particle is assumed to passively follow

the wind, so its trajectory is just the time (t) integration of the particle position vector

(P) in space. The final position for each trajectory segment is computed from the

average velocity (V) at the initial position (P) and first-guess position (P’),

P(t + ∆t ) = P(t ) + 0.5[V ( P, t ) + V ( p' , t + ∆t )]∆t , (1)

P' (t + ∆t ) = P(t ) + V ( P, t )∆t . (2)

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3.2. Trajectory clustering

Cluster analysis is a multivariate statistical technique that splits a data set into a

number of groups. Cluster analysis is often described as an objective classification

method, but the selection of the clustering algorithm, the distance definition and the

number of clusters, are subjective. Several different clustering algorithms (Brankov et

al., 1998; Dorling et al., 1992; Harris and Kahl, 1990; Sirois and Bottenheim, 1995)

have been developed, but in TrajStat, Ward’s hierarchical method (Ward, 1963) is

used to form the clusters by combining the nearest trajectories. Euclidean distance is

often used to define the distance between two trajectories using the latitude and

longitude locations as variables. In this case, the distance is given by

n
d12 = ∑ (( X (i ) − X
i =1
1 2 (i )) 2 + (Y1 (i ) − Y2 (i )) 2 ) , (3)

where X1 (Y1) and X2 (Y2) reference backward trajectories 1 and 2, respectively. The

main disadvantage of using the Euclidean distance is that two backward trajectories

that followed the same path, but with one having higher speed, may be classified into

two different clusters. If the main interest is to determine the direction from which the

air masses reach the site, one could use angle distance (Sirois and Bottenheim, 1995),

which is defined using the law of cosines.

1 n ⎛ ( A + Bi − Ci ) ⎞⎟
d12 = ∑
n i =1
cos −1 ⎜ 0.5 i
⎜ A B ⎟
, (4)
⎝ i i ⎠

where

Ai = ( X 1 (i ) − X 0 ) 2 + (Y1 (i ) − Y0 ) 2 , (5)

Bi = ( X 2 (i ) − X 0 ) 2 + (Y2 (i ) − Y0 ) 2 , (6)

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Ci = ( X 2 (i ) − X 1 (i )) 2 + (Y2 (i ) − Y1 (i )) 2 . (7)

The variables X0 and Y0 define the position of the receptor site (backward

trajectory origin point) and d12 is the mean angle between the two backward

trajectories, as seen from the trajectory origin point.

Both Euclidean and angle distance algorithms are included in TrajStat and visual

inspection of the best cluster line shown by the software is used to determine the final

number of clusters.

3.3. Potential source contribution function

Air parcel back trajectories from the receptor site are represented by the segment

endpoints. To calculate the PSCF, the whole geographic region covered by the

trajectories is divided into an array of grid cells whose size is dependent on the

geographical scale of the problem. The PSCF will be a function of location as defined

by the cell indices i and j while the number of segments with endpoints that fall in the

ijth cell is denoted by nij. The number of endpoints in the ijth cell associated with a

trajectory that arrives at the sampling site at the same time as a corresponding

measured pollutant concentration higher than an arbitrary criterion value is defined by

mij. The PSCF value for the ijth cell is then

PSCFij = mij / nij . (8)

The PSCF value can be interpreted as the conditional probability that the

concentrations of a given pollutant sample greater than the criterion level are related

to the passage of air parcels through the ijth cell during transport to the receptor site.

That is, cells with high PSCF values are associated with the arrival of air parcels at

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the receptor site that have measured concentrations higher than the criterion value.

These cells are indicative of areas of ‘high potential’ contributions for that pollutant.

3.4. Concentration weighted trajectory

Like the PSCF method, in the CWT method a grid is superimposed over the

domain of the trajectory computations. Each grid cell is assigned a residence-time

weighted concentration from the measured sample associated with the trajectories that

crossed that grid cell as follows:


M
1
C ij = ∑ cτ

M l ijl
τ
l = 1 ijl
l =1
(9)

where Cij is the average weighted concentration in the ijth cell, l is the index of the

trajectory, M is the total number of trajectories, Cl is the concentration observed on

arrival of trajectory l, and τijl is the time spent in the ijth cell by trajectory l. The time a

trajectory spends in a cell could be represented by the number of trajectory segments

located in the cell. Also the concentrations can be transformed to their logarithmic

value if less weight is desired for the high concentration outliers. A high value for Cij

implies that air parcels traveling over the ijth cell would be, on average, associated

with high concentrations at the receptor.

In both the PSCF and CWT methods, cells with few endpoints may result in high

uncertainty. Thus, to reduce the influence of those grid cells, an arbitrary weight

function is multiplied into the PSCF or CWT value (Polissar et al., 1999).

3. Software description

3.1. GIS functions

There are three approaches to using GIS functionality for an application. In most

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cases, applications are built in the GIS environment, which offers a special macro or

programming language. More rapid development and access to many different

professional GIS functions are the main advantages of this kind of approach.

However, a major limitation is that the application can only run in the GIS

environment where it was developed. A second choice would be to use a standard

programming environment to create the application with a GIS component that can be

run without any installed GIS environment. A third approach would be to write all the

required GIS functions directly into the application. But this approach adds too much

complexity and programming overhead to relatively simple applications. To obtain

the most flexibility and software independency, the second approach was used to

develop TrajStat.

Many environmental models and related software use commercial GIS

components such as MapObjects and MapX to build their GIS functions (Rees et al.,

2006; Shen et al., 2005; Symeonidis et al., 2004). However these commercial

approaches are expensive and there are limitations in distributing the software. In

contrast, TrajStat uses the open-source GIS component MapWindowGIS ActiveX

control (MapWindow open source team, 2007) to generate its basic GIS functions

which all use the ESRI shapefile data formats. These GIS functions include shape

layer management, shape view, map zoom options, attribute data view and edit, label,

shape layer legend edit and several others. All shape layers in a trajectory analyses

task could be saved as one project file, which is convenient for multi-task

management. Bitmapped (BMP) raster images with relevant background coordinates

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can be included in the project for more colorful and attractive map views.

3.2. System structure

Microsoft Visual Basic 2005 was chosen for implementation of the program. Fig.

1 shows the structure of the TrajStat system, which is divided into two parts:

trajectory data preparation, and trajectory statistics. The trajectory calculation function

and adding measurement data into trajectory are included in the first part. The second

part consists of three models: clustering, PSCF and CWT. The GIS functions of the

system were used to generate, edit and view the corresponding shape files for each

part. The detailed steps and data flow are described as below.

Trajectory calculation: The HYSPLIT model is used to calculate trajectories,

which are loaded into the system as an external process. The meteorological data can

be downloaded freely from HYSPLIT website

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/hysplit4.html. A TrajStat interface was developed to set

the trajectory model parameters to compute one month’s worth of trajectories. These

parameters consist of the start location, start time, run duration, top of the model,

vertical motion method, meteorological data file path and name, and the trajectory file

output path and name. Individual endpoint text files will be generated from this step

for each trajectory.

Generate trajectory shape file: Internally, the endpoint files from the previous

step are first converted to comma-delimited text files prior to converting them to the

ESRI shape file format. The trajectories calculated from HYSPLIT are

three-dimensional, so “PolylineZ” was selected as the “Shape Type” for trajectories.

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In this type of shape file the x, y and z properties of each point are defined by its

longitude, latitude and air pressure along the trajectory. The MapWindowGIS object

creation functions of point, shape and shapefile were used to generate the trajectory

shape file. In addition, the trajectory start date and height attribute were added to the

shapefile.

Trajectory View: The trajectories can be shown in various spatial projections.

For instance, using only the height (z) coordinate, the air pressure profile of each

trajectory can be showed as a two-dimensional figure. When combined with its

longitude and latitude values, the three-dimensional trajectories can be plotted.

Add measurement data to trajectories: Before the pollution pathways and

sources for a given receptor site can be analyzed, the long-term measurement data

should be assigned to their corresponding trajectories by adding a comma delimited

measurement data column to the trajectory shape file attribute table according to the

date field column.

Trajectory query: A query function was developed to identify the trajectories to

which a user could add an attribute field. For instance, a marker can be added to each

trajectory to distinguish it as a polluted or clean trajectory from a large number of

trajectories and then the pollutant pathway could be roughly estimated through

querying the trajectories with high measurement concentration.

Trajectory clustering: As in the previous steps, the trajectory endpoint files

must first be converted to shape files prior to running the clustering model. Euclidean

distance or angle distance can be selected as the cluster model and the maximum

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number of clusters to output should also be preset. The clustering output text file

includes the cluster number for each trajectory. The “calculate mean trajectories” for a

given cluster number will generate the corresponding mean trajectory shape file for

that cluster. A reasonable maximum cluster number can be decided through visual

inspection and comparison of the mean-trajectory maps. Then the cluster id could be

added to each corresponding trajectory in the trajectory shape files. The mean

pollutant concentration for each cluster can be computed using the cluster statistics

function. Pollutant pathways could then be associated with the high concentration

clusters.

PSCF and CWT analyses: A function is provided in the system to create

polygon shapes from gridded data such as the PSCF and CWT analyses according to

the extent of the domain and grid cell size. For each cell in the PSCF shape file, the

total endpoint number and pollutant endpoint (with corresponding measured pollutant

concentration higher than an arbitrary criterion value) number were counted using the

“PointInShape” function of shapefile object in the MapWindowGIS component. The

total endpoint number was also counted in CWT shape file. Then the PSCF and CWT

values were calculated using Eqns. 8 and 9. To reduce the effect of small total

endpoint numbers, the weighting function should be set in the analyses. Weighted

PSCF or CWT fields could be plotted as polygon maps with various color schemes.

High PSCF or CWT cells identify potential source regions to the receptor site.

4. Application example and results

The deserts in the middle latitude area of Asia (such as the Gobi) were

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considered as the primary sources of Asian dust. Previous studies have shown that the

deserts of south Mongolia, the Taklimakan and Badain Juran in China contributed to

about 70% of total Asian dust emissions (Zhang et al., 2003). However, for a given

receptor site the source attribution results may be quite different and therefore

additional special studies are required to determine the site’s primary dust sources.

These studies may include different chemical tracer analyses (Kanayama et al., 2002;

Wang et al., 2005; Zhang et al., 1996), sensitivity model experiments (Escudero et al.,

2006), and trajectory statistical methods combined with PM10 concentration

observation data (Wang et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2004).

Jiuquan, located in north of Gansu province with the Kumtag desert in west and

the Badain Juran desert in east (Fig 2), is one of the operational sand and dust storm

monitoring stations established by China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

The PM10 (particle matter with diameter less than 10 µm) concentration data in spring

of 2004-2006 have been reported by Wang et al. (Wang et al., 2008). These data will

be used in an example application of the TrajStat software to show how trajectory

statistical methods can be used to identify the dust sources and transport pathways to

Jiuquan during the springtime.

Using TrajStat, daily 3-day back trajectories were calculated during springtime

of 2004-2006, and then the corresponding PM10 measured concentration data were

assigned to each trajectory. Trajectory view functions, spatial distribution, air pressure

profile and 3-D distribution, are shown in Fig. 2 providing a visualization of the

detailed path of each trajectory. The trajectory query function was used to distinguish

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the most polluted trajectories by displaying only those trajectories with PM10

concentrations larger than 150 µg m-3, the limiting value of the Class Ⅱcategory of

the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in China. These most polluted trajectories

were mainly from west, with only a few from east (Fig. 3).

Because air mass transport direction is our main interest in the analysis of dust

storm source regions, angle distance was chosen as the clustering model. A final

cluster number of 5 was selected after the visual examination of the mean trajectory

maps for different cluster numbers (Fig. 4). After the cluster number identification

was assigned to each trajectory, the statistical results of the mean concentration of all

trajectories and only the polluted trajectories was calculated (Fig. 4) for each cluster.

Cluster 4, with 89 trajectories, showed the highest mean PM10 concentration of 227.41

µg m-3 of all clusters and with 37 it also had the most number of polluted trajectories

with a mean PM10 concentration of 427.74 µg m-3. These results indicate that the dust

transport pathway to Jiuquan is mainly from west, via the Taklimakan desert and the

Kumtag desert.

The TrajStat PSCF and CWT analysis results are shown in Fig. 5 and Fig. 6,

respectively. The dust source locations identified by these two methods were very

similar to the clustering results. The eastern part of Taklimakan desert and the Kumtag

desert showed the highest PSCF and CWT values and therefore are the main dust

sources to Jiuquan in the spring time.

5. Conclusions

The TrajStat software provides an integrated GIS interface to create, view, and

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statistically analyze multiple trajectories and the corresponding sampling data. The

GIS environment is created using open source MapWindowGIS components that have

no commercial licensing restrictions. The software’s trajectory statistical analysis

tools include clustering, PSCF and CWT methods all of which can be associated with

measurement data at the receptor site (backward trajectory origin) by assigning each

measurement to its corresponding trajectory. In this way pollutant pathways and

source regions can be identified using the software. The trajectory statistical

analysis process is not entirely automated, in that some subjective decisions are

required according to nature of the problem under investigation. A user is needs to

specify the final cluster number desired, the clustering method, and the grid cell size

and weighing function for the PSCF and CWT methods.

The capability of TrajStat was demonstrated through analyses of dust pathways

and sources to Jiuquan during the springtime. In this application, the trajectories could

be viewed in either two or three dimensions, providing detailed position information

for each trajectory. With the option of two trajectory distance clustering definitions,

trajectories could be clustered according to direction and speed or just according to

direction. Users could also select PSCF and CWT analyses of the trajectories and

measurement data using TrajStat. The example results showed that the Taklimakan

and Kumtag deserts were main sources of dust to Jiuquan.

This paper summarizes the applications available in the first version of TrajStat.

Although there are some limitations, the software does include the most common

trajectory analysis methods, such as clustering, PSCF, CWT, and weighting functions

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to reduce the uncertainty of the grid cells with a small number of trajectories.

Additional functions will be considered for future upgrades such as applying

confidence intervals and smoothing functions for CWT (Seibert et al., 1994) and

adding the RTWC (Stohl, 1996) analysis function.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by grants from the Basic Scientific and Operational

Research Fund of CAMS (2008Z004) and National Basic Research Program of China

(2006CB403700).

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Figure Captions

Figure 1. The structure of TrajStat.

Figure 2. The spatial distribution, 2-D air pressure profile, and 3-D view of the
backward trajectories from Jiuquan .

Figure 3. Trajectories associated with PM10 concentration larger then 150 µg m-3.

Figure 4. Cluster-mean back trajectories and cluster statistical results for Jiuquan
using a final cluster number of 5.

Figure 5. PSCF map of dust sources contributing to high values at Jiuquan.

Figure 6. CWT map of dust sources contributing to high values at Jiuquan.

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Meteorological
Data

HYSPLIT
Model

Measurement Trajectory Trajectory


data shape file view & query

Clustering PSCF CWT


Model Model Model

Clustering PSCF analysis CWT analysis


analysis result result result

Figure 1. The structure of TrajStat.

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Figure 2. The spatial distribution, 2-D air pressure profile, and 3-D view of the
backward trajectories from Jiuquan

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Figure 3. Trajectories associated with PM10 concentration larger then 150 µg m-3.

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Figure 4. Cluster-mean back trajectories and cluster statistical results for Jiuquan
using a final cluster number of 5.

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Figure 5. PSCF map of dust sources contributing to high values at Jiuquan.

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Figure 6. CWT map of dust sources contributing to high values at Jiuquan.

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