42 Rice Today July-September 2014

Grain of truth GG
by Tony Fischer
R
ice is the most important
staple food for more than
half the planets population,
particularly for the poor
of Asia. World rice yield, herein
called farm yield (FY), is currently
increasing constantly at only 1%
per year relative to the 2010 global
average yield of 4.3 tons per hectare.
To understand yield prospects
to 2050, when the number of rice
eaters will be more than ever, FY
must be disaggregated into the key
rice-growing regions and underlying
yield drivers. For the later, we dene
potential yield (PY) as the yield
obtained, usually in breeders plots
grown across the region of interest,
with the best-yielding new varieties
and without biotic stresses such
as diseases and pests, and abiotic
stresses such as drought, ooding,
salinity, heat, and cold. The PY to FY
dierence is the yield gap, which is
expressed as a percentage of FY. With
risk and economics being considered,
a minimum yield gap of no less than
30% can be met by the best farmers.
FY progress arises from an increase
in PY and closure of the yield gap.
For each of the worlds seven
major rice mega-environments, 13
recent case studies were used to
explore FY, PY, and the yield gap over
the past 2030 years. The FY increase
was signicant in all situations and
ranged from 0.2% to 2.2% per year.
The current rates for PY progress
(and also of water-limited PY, one
case) were also all signicant, ranging
from 0.6% to 1.3% per year, with an
average of 0.8%. By dierence, the
rate of yield gap closing varied from
as high as 1.5% per year to -0.6% per
year (i.e., widening not closing) for an
average closing of 0.4% per year.
Yield increase prospects
for rice to 2050
The sample average yield gap for
rice was 76% but the range was large
(25% to 150%) with a smaller gap for
irrigated rice (57%) than for rainfed
rice (123%). These results show that it
is important to continually lift PY for
future FY progress, especially with
irrigated rice, which contributes to
about 80% of world production. The
results also point to the generally
slow rates of yield gap closing, but
gap closing cannot be neglected as it
often targets the poorest producers.
Yield gaps in rice are inevitably
due to many agronomic constraints,
poor farmer knowledge, and weak
rural infrastructure and institutions.
Some constraints can be alleviated
with targeted agronomic research
and breeding for beter stress
resistance, which is beginning to
show promise and is also likely to
benet from genetic engineering (GE).
In Brazils irrigated rice region,
yield gap closing is impressive
(1.3% per year) because farmers,
and the public and private sectors
are highly involved in technology
transfer. Similar concerted eorts,
which target all players and are
accompanied by rural development,
will likely deliver substantial yield
gap closing. However, the shrinking
size of Asian rice farms and their
weak human resource base pose a
special challenge.
Lifting the rate of PY progress
will be more di cult, as the
harvest index is above 0.5 in the
best materials around the world
and is unlikely to increase much
more. Studies in Japan suggest that
recent breeding progress in PY has
increased leaf photosynthetic rate
around panicle emergence, and
there may be scope to further exploit
natural variation in photosynthetic
traits as rice genetic resources are
explored. We dont expect GE (e.g.,
C
4
rice) to lift PY at least for several
decades. Hybrid rice from tropical
areas will likely give a one-o
boost to PY by 1020% over the
next decade or so. And this has not
been considered in the rate of PY
progress.
To 2050, any negative eects
arising from temperature rise driven
by climate change are likely to be
balanced by the benet of rising
CO
2
for crop photosynthesis. The
substantial global warming eect
of methane from paddy rice and
the ine ciencies in water and
nitrogen use and the tendency for
pesticide overuse in rice cropping
are weaknesses to be overcome. This
will need substantial research and
much improved crop management if
rice production is to be sustainably
intensied globally. However, the
greatest potential environmental
impact arises from further land
clearing for any type of cropping.
Lifting rice FY progress to
more than 1% per year will likely be
needed to eliminate direct or indirect
pressure for land clearing for rice.
But, this will be di cult and will
require more substantial investment
in R&D and in rural development
generally.
Dr. Fischer, a former member of IRRIs
Board of Trustees (2005-10), is an
honorary research fellow at Australias
Commonwealth Scientic and Industrial
Research Organisation. More details
on yields for rice and a host of other
important crops can be found in his just-
released book (see page 9).
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