Dear Partner, Our net performance for Q2 was 2.0%, bringing our YTD results to 1.9% vs. YTD indices of: 3.7% Barclay Hedge Fund Index, 3.2% Russell 2000 and 7.1% S&P 500. Though we tracked to high single digit returns for most of June, results were painted adversely on paper by several percent by a bizarre technical impact in the market caused by the Russell 2000 rebalance on the last day of the month which I discuss below. This quickly reversed itself and I look forward to providing a July update shortly. I am pleased with our performance to date, especially given the transition period we went through earlier this year. The second half of the year is shaping up to be a more challenging market environment with the end of quantitative easing (finally) that should allow us to separate ourselves from the crowd meaningfully.
Russell Rebalance: Forced Selling Driving Stocks Up? Index funds that aim to mimic the composition of the large cap S&P 500 or small cap Russell 2000 have become increasingly popular and now manage an estimated 7% of all equity capital. Where elephants eat, they leave crumbs. The rebalancing of these market-cap weighted indices: where growing companies are added and shrinking companies are kicked off, has become a hunting ground for traders. We too are interested in sources of non-economic supply and demand as thats what makes markets mispriced. However, if there are too many mice trying to get the crumbs then things can get strange. As recently as five years ago, there was a fairly predictable increase in prices on the last trading day of June (when the Russell rebalance is official) for those added and decline for those kicked off as the mechanically forced buyers and sellers moved roughly 7% of the stocks shares. A really interesting phenomenon occurred this year that I had never seen and supports the thesis I have shared in prior letters that there has been a secular shift in the markets and there are few easy trades left. The stocks that had increased over the last year and looked likely to be added to the index (it is a simple market cap cut off) started having notable increases in buying a full two months before the end of June while the deletes had selling pressure (and increasing short interest). Keep in mind the official list is only announced several weeks before the end of June so there was real risk being taken by those playing this game anticipating who would make the cut. Then on the last day of June, the deletes actually spiked UP while the adds declined! We have never participated systematically in this trade because it is easy and I have no interest in participating in any kind of highly competitive race to the bottom. It would appear that a large number of unsophisticated traders must have lost money trying to play the last day of the money and squeezed each other. 2
The effect this had on us was nothing other than to temporarily paint a good portion of our book against us for a couple days (unfortunately right at the end of the quarter) as our target market caps tend to be around the ~$200mm market cap range which was about the cutoff point this year. Our thesis on these names has nothing to do with their inclusion in an index, we are short some deletes with mounting debt that are on their way to zero So seeing this was more a curiosity but I think does highlight how important it is now to identify truly hard-to-copy competitive advantages: the obvious or easy trades are increasingly crowded and to be avoided.
Everyones an Activist Now It seems like with all of the media hype around activist investors, everyone is trying to find a way to claim the title by putting out press releases or writing letters, or perhaps thinking about activism. An example that really counts we came across (i.e. searched for methodically using our software platform) was an interesting case of the proxy battle that wasnt. As someone who has been very up close and personal with what happens behind the scenes, Ken Ehrmans activism at ID Systems is quite impressive and in line with our approach of non-disruptive, entrepreneurial-focused activism. ID Systems makes devices and software for tracking vehicles and shipping containers, allowing more efficient maintenance and utilization of expensive fixed assets. Ken was #2 at IDSY, reporting to the (now former) CEO and frustrated with the attitude at the board. Based on my reading of the compensation structure in the proxy, I can imagine the (now former) board of directors instructing the management to simply go into their office and crank up the revenue and profit levers while turning down the cost knob what could be simpler? Well, business is hard Growing revenues and profits requires investment which means tough choices and depressing numbers in the short term thats life. Not facing that reality, i.e. we cant pull over for gas because well be late, ultimately lead to a boardroom coup where Ken managed to replace the majority of the board and install himself as CEO. We are happy to let others do the work for us, especially when they happen to also be the founder and the largest individual stockholder! As an investment, ID Systems has a number of attractive characteristics. The fundamental changes occurring at the business (and board) serve both as a business catalyst and also obfuscates the stock from being already bid up by the market: New BOD & CEO: mid 40s Stanford Engineer who has worked in the space his whole career, founded the company, largest individual shareholder with 5% Cash cushion of $10mm+ to execute new strategy without dilution Low capital intensity business (software, device design w/ outsourced manufacturing) High gross margins (~50%) lead to high operating leverage for new units sold Currently subscale but shifting focus to a more recurring service-oriented model driven by analytics (very sticky and valuable business) Already have large blue chip customers in place, need to increase wallet share 3
Under the radar of the value screens: Losing money today and sales dont appear to be growing steadily because of a one-time project last year. Sales are growing 20% right now, Company expects to be profitable Q1 2015 Trades at ~1.4X EV/Sales (vs 6X EV/Sales for comp buyout post-turnaround)
Hooper Holmes (HH), which we mentioned last letter, had a similar profile of fundamental change and growth obfuscated by cleaning up the messes of the past. It has performed well for us so far this year and is up about 50% from our cost basis in under a year. We are aiming to have 20-30 long ideas like this at any given time and have successfully ramped up the book to capacity now that our sourcing and research platform is fully up and running. Our experience as the cause of change makes us uniquely able to source and understand this kind of fundamental business change that stays under the radar of more conventional investment analysts. Having seen things up close both when they are going well and not helps keep us out of trouble as well!
Portfolio Update Our largest position, InfuSystem reported strong Q1 numbers with revenue up double digits. The major regulatory risk from CMS competitive bidding was clarified in a highly favorable direction just two weeks ago with infusion pumps being dropped from Round 2 as abruptly as it was added the week we assumed control of the board in April 2012. This doesnt change our behavior but is certainly nice to have some clouds part as the foot is on the floor under CEO Eric Steens excellent leadership, transforming the company into a true growth company. Lucas Energy has weighed on our results year to date but thankfully has shrunk down to being a smaller position where it cannot contribute further pain. I finish what I start and from the current lower valuation it is still an attractive investment as we work with our bankers. Going forward our efforts are much more productive for understanding and causing change at operating businesses where there are not large external forces beyond our control. The experience at Lucas has ironically been invaluable to our expertise and profitability on the short side and as Warren Buffett says, You dont have to make it back the same way you lost it. Odyssey Marine Exploration continues its daily march towards the absorbing barrier and likely has only about two weeks of cash remaining in the bank. With mounting debt and no prospects for revenues in the near future we expect to see some fundamental business changes in the coming month. It has been a long journey that I could write a book about but will wait until the dust has settled before saying too much. Going forward our activist positions, where we assume illiquidity as insiders, will represent a smaller portion of the portfolio. After this transition period, I am happy with the structure of the portfolio now and given our new ability to systematically source many more ideas than previously, I believe we can have the same or higher return expectations with a fraction of the risk and volatility. This would not be 4
possible without the massive upfront investment over the last 18 months to develop our software sourcing platform to quickly identify and evaluate businesses that are under the radar of conventional crowded stock screens. I am particularly looking forward to the rest of the year and ideally a declining market where it will be easier to demonstrate the differentiating power of this new integrated approach.
Being Market Agnostic at a Time When it Really Matters We continue to see data indicating the market is at or near all-time high valuations which means low return expectations for the average investor going forward say 5-10 years. We have spent the last 5 years building a cumulative framework to be anything but average, with occasional demonstrations amid the process. Im proud of our high single digit performance to date and very excited about our positioning to make above average returns regardless of the overall market environment. We have a robust book and deep pipeline on both the long and short side and welcome a market environment that I expect will create discomfort for less well equipped investors. Please email me at rmorris@mesoncapital.com or call at 607-279-5382 if you have any questions or are interested in investing. As always, thank you for reading.
Sincerely,
Ryan J. Morris
President Meson Capital Partners LLC
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