55 - India Economics - MacroJunction 24mar14

Macro Junction
Flows defy the Fed; We love Chinese imports!

Indian markets were taken over by global cues last week, as the
Fed conducted its monetary policy meet, the first one for
chairman (we are egalitarian!) Janet Yellen. As the Fed cut its
monetary stimulus by a further $10bn (to an incremental
US$55bn monthly), there were major concerns in emerging
markets on a potential slowdown in FII inflows, but flows to
India remained intact (Debt: $5.9bnYTD, Equity: $1.9bn YTD).
Prospectively, global Mfg. PMI for China does not point to a
rosy picture, but Eurozone and Germany are still doing well in
the positive (50+) zone. And sticky core inflation means the RBI
would likely keep rates unchanged on the new fiscals first bi-
monthly credit policy on April 1
st
.
Our chart of the week shows how the sustained INR dip vs. the
Yuan over the last three years has had little impact on bilateral
trade with the Middle Kingdom. Trade deficit has risen to more
than US$30bn, and interestingly, to even US$37bn, depending
on your choice of the data source. RBI data shows weaker
exports (US$14bn vs. US$17bn), and robust imports (US$49bn
vs. US$52bn) vs. data from Chinese Customs. Granted, FX rate
has a role to play, but a ~20%+ gap?
Global Mfg. PMI reflect marginally weakness: China Mfg. PMI
contracted further in March to 48.1 from 48.5 in Feb, as domestic
demand and lower output weighed onto their economic slowdown.
Eurozone PMI fell marginally to 53, but it still remains a robust
quarter, as even though Germany PMI slipped slightly in March, the
recovery prospects in France (after two and a half years of muted
growth) add hope of an economic revival in the near-term.
Fed continues to taper by $10bn in Mar 19 policy meet: The Federal
Reserve continues to taper by $10bn in the March policy meet, with
monthly purchases of Treasury/MBS purchases now whittled down to
US$30bn/US$25bn starting April vs. US$35bn/US$30bn earlier. Also,
Fed commentary points to rates witnessing an assuming orderly hike
of 25bps starting from Jul15, as tapering should potentially end by
this year. We believe that the Fed will now find it difficult to get out of
its current auto-taper mode, lest it confuses, or sends a negative signal
to the markets on the current recovery path.
We remain hopeful of an inventory build-up being a minor part of the
recovery. (4QGDP at 2.4%). Consumption levels still remain shaky,
partly explaining the low inflation levels, even as the housing recovery
is likely to sustain, albeit marginally. Moreover, the unemployment
rate does show early signs of a recovery for the job environment this
year, even after adjusting for the falling participation rate.
This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. Where the report is distributed by Religare Capital Markets
(UK) Limited (RCM UK), the firm is an Appointed Representative of Elevation Trading Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section
at the end of this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSE
restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Economics
INDIA

24 March 2014

REPORT AUTHORS
Tirthankar Patnaik
(91-22) 6766 3446
tirthankar.patnaik@religare.com
Prerna Singhvi
(91-22) 6766 3413
prerna.singhvi@religare.com
Saloni Agarwal
(91-22) 6766 3438
agarwal.saloni@religare.com
India foreign flows in equity and debt (US$bn)

Source: Bloomberg, RCML Research
Global Mfg. PMI continues to remain robust

Source: MOSPI, RCML Research
INR remains at stable levels for now


9.2
20.4
(10.4)
18.7
40.2
8.0
41.4
12.0
8.5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014TD
(US$bn)
FII Equity FII debt
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr-98 Jun-01 Aug-04 Oct-07 Dec-10 Feb-14
PMI (R) 50
50
54
58
62
66
70
1-Apr-13 25-Jul-13 17-Nov-13 12-Mar-14
Macro Junction
Flows defy the Fed; We love Chinese
imports!

Economics
INDIA

24 March 2014 Page 2 of 18

Macro estimates
Fig 1 - Key macroeconomic estimates
Year to 31 March FY13 FY14E FY15E Comments
Real Indicators
GDP growth (%) 4.5 4.7 5.3
Growth may have bottomed out but overall business activity remains weak and
recovery could stretch well into FY15. Economic growth is likely to remain
below-potential on elevated cost of funds until structural issues (directed rural
transfers, rent-seeking in agri, etc.) are addressed. We maintain our FY14 est. at
4.7% and see some downside risks to the Govt.s first advance estimate of
4.9%. Expect some recovery to 5.3% in FY15.
Agriculture growth (%) 1.4 3.6 2.5
Bumper southwest monsoons bode well for agri production in FY14 with scope
for better- than-expected growth of 4.6%. However, the sharp upside in the Agri
sector is unlikely to continue into FY15.
Industry growth (%) 1.0 1.6 3.1
Industrial growth in FY14 is the lowest in 22 years, thanks to much weaker
domestic and global demand. A marginal demand revival and low base should
help support growth in FY15.
Services growth (%) 7.0 6.4 6.9
A prolonged slowdown has hurt the Services sector which has hitherto been
comparatively resilient, and has reported a sub-7% print in FY14 after more than
a decade, with meaningful turnaround unlikely in the near term.
External Sector (US$bn)
Trade deficit (196) (156) (172)
Sustained hike in import duties and implementation of quantitative-based
restrictions would result in a 20% decline in trade deficit in FY14. However, a
pickup in demand and gradual relaxation of restrictions on gold imports would
likely boost overall imports in FY15.
Current Account Deficit (88) (44) (55)
Sharply falling trade deficit along with steady software earnings would likely
result in much-needed relief on the current account deficit (CAD) in FY14.

% to GDP* (4.8) (2.6) (2.8)
External Debt 400 450 470
ECBs (Commercial Borrowings) remain the biggest component of external debt
in India, accounting for ~30% of overall liabilities. Overall levels remain
comfortable vs. peers.
% to GDP* 21.7 26.2 24.0
Exchange Rate
US$/INR - year end 54.3 62.0 65.0
The INR stabilised towards the latter part of the year on a sharp decline in
imports and huge inflows via the central banks forex swap window.
Expectations of a strengthened dollar on a potential US recovery, along with
domestic growth (imports) revival, would keep the INR under pressure in FY15. % depreciation 1.9 14.2 4.8
Monetary
Indicators (%YoY)

Money supply 12.4 13.0 13.0

Inflationary pressures are rising and while some near-term relief is expected as
food prices come off, structural problems need to be addressed to lower inflation
beyond seasonal shifts. Rates therefore are likely to be stronger for longer. Inflation - WPI (Avg.) 7.7 6.0 5.5
Fiscal Indicators (%GDP)
Center's fiscal deficit 4.9 4.6 4.2
The Govt. has lowered its revised estimate for FY14 to 4.6% from 4.8%, mainly
led by sharp expenditure cuts and subsidy deferral, even as tax collections
surprise negatively. But, its FY15BE looks optimistic at 4.1% (RCMLe: 4.2%).
State fiscal deficit 2.7 2.7 2.7 Fiscal balances remain a matter of concern given SEB worries.
Source: RCML Research *Based on our FY14 GDP estimates

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Chart of the Week: Has the INR depreciation
helped Indias trade with China?
Marginally, if at all. And theres the devil in the details. Indian data points
to a distinctly grimmer scenario vis--vis its Chinese counterpart.
Fig 2 - Indias trade with China (Rolling 12M in US$bn) and the INR

Source: RCML Research, Datastream
Fig 3 - Indias trade deficit with China (Rolling 12M in US$bn)

The INR has been depreciating on a
steady basis vs. the Yuan, especially in
the last three years, touching a low of
10.7 in August 2013.
That has not helped its fortunes in
bilateral trade with China, however.
Annual (rolling) imports have risen to
over US$50bn since 2011, and remain
uncomfortably high, despite being flat
since.
Exports have fared worse, with annual
figures falling from the US$20bn
figures seen in FY12.
So has the latest depreciation helped?
To some extent, if at all as seen from
the rising exports figures.
Why do we have four lines for exports
and imports? We considered trade
figures from two sources, viz., Chinese
Customs, and the RBI.
Interestingly, Indian, as in RBI data
points to a weaker trade deficit vis--
vis what China has to offer.
Export figures are weaker, and imports
are higher. To the extent that the trade
deficit differs by nearly US$7bn
annually.
We use the daily FX rate for the RBI
figures, but does that explain the ~20%
gap? We think not.
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Global Manufacturing PMIs for Mar14
reflect broader weakness
Chinas Mfg. PMI contracted further to 48.1 in Mar from 48.5 in Feb lowest in
eight months reflecting a slowdown in the economy and softening domestic
demand, as output contracted at its quickest pace in 18 months. With major rating
agencies reducing Chinas growth estimates, Beijing will need to issue several policy
measures such as lowering entry barriers on private investment, spending on
subways, air cleaning and public housing, and reducing interest rates.
Germanys Mfg. PMI fell marginally to 53.8 in Mar from 54.8 in Feb, a 4-month low,
as expansion in private sector activity slowed, but still remained remarkably high.
There was a sharp rise in hiring for the fifth consecutive month, while workforce
numbers rose marginally. Service sector growth also reached its highest level in
three years, as economic conditions helped boost confidence.
Eurozones Mfg. PMI fell marginally to 53 in Mar from 53.2 in Feb, but this quarter
has seen a major uptick in business activity the strongest since 2QCY11. The
survey also signals a 0.5% increase in GDP in the first quarter, and while Germanys
PMI slipped slightly in March, the recovery prospects in France (after two-and-a-half
years of muted growth) add hope to an economic improvement by 2Q this year.
This optimistic stimulus was felt across the region, but deflationary pressures
remain an argument for further stimulus, especially if rates cool off again in April.
Fig 4 - China PMI falls further to 48.1 in Mar Fig 5 - Germany PMI declines to 53.8 4 month low

Source: Markit Economics, Bloomberg, RCML Research

Fig 6 - Eurozone PMI falls slightly to 53 from 53.2 in Feb Fig 7 - Global PMI continues to trend higher


0
4
8
12
16
20
45
48
51
54
57
60
Jul-09 Sep-10 Nov-11 Jan-13 Mar-14
(%)
PMI (L) 50 IIP growth (R)
-25
-15
-5
5
15
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
(%)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
35
42
49
56
(%)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr-98 Jun-01 Aug-04 Oct-07 Dec-10 Feb-14
PMI (R) 50
Latest PMI & IIP data for major countries
PMI IIP (%)
India* 52.5 0.1
China 48.1 8.6
US* 56.7 2.8
Japan* 55.5 10.3
Germany 53.8 5.0
Eurozone 53.0 2.2
Russia* 48.5 2.1
Brazil* 50.4 (2.4)
JP Morgan Global* 53.3 -
Source: RCML Research, Bloomberg
*Note: US, India, Russia, Japan, Brazil and Global
PMI for Feb14, rest for Mar14. China, US and
Russia IIP for Feb14, rest for Jan14
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Confusing policy from Fed this time
but tapering continues
Fed continues to remain optimistic on a potential US recovery
Policy decision: The Fed continued to taper by $10bn in the last policy meet
(18-19 March), with monthly purchases of Treasury/MBS now whittled down to
US$30bn/US$25bn starting April (from US$35bn/US$30bn earlier). Also, the Fed
commentary points to rates witnessing an assuming orderly hike of 25bps starting
Jul15, as tapering should potentially end by this year.
Growth outlook: Despite a higher 2014 GDP guidance of 2.5-2.8% (in Jan), the policy
indicates that economic growth has slowed down due several reasons, including: (1)
adverse weather conditions, (2) mixed labour market indicators, (3) a slowdown in
the housing sector, and (4) elevated employment levels. But the Fed remains
optimistic, as indicated in the press release below.
The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and labor market as
nearly balanced. (see Fed Press Release dated March 19th)
Our take: We believe that the Fed will now find it difficult to come out of its current
auto-taper mode, lest it confuses, or sends a negative signal to the markets on the
current recovery path. We remain hopeful of an inventory build-up being a minor
part of the recovery. (4QGDP at 2.4%). Consumption levels still remain shaky, partly
explaining the low inflation levels, even as the housing recovery is likely to sustain,
albeit marginally. Moreover, the unemployment rate does show early signs of a
recovery for the job environment this year, even after adjusting for the falling
participation rate.
Fig 8 - US growth led by net trade in Q4 hopefully this
trend continues
Fig 9 - Slight uptick in consumption, but disposable income
continues to remain weak

Source: Datastream, RCML Research

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Fig 10 - US housing starts tumble in Jan due to further
payback from Novs surge, and weather disruptions
Fig 11 - leading to lower unemployment levels in Jan,
which has marginally improved in February


Effective unemployment rate marginally coming off
Unemployment levels have fallen to ~6.7% from ~11% in 2008, leading to a drop in the
adjusted labour participation rate (percentage of workers applying for a job), albeit
marginally down from 66% in Mar08 to 63% in Feb14.
The unemployment rate adjusted for the Mar08 participation rate (i.e. the number of
employed wrt to the people searching in Mar08) shows an improvement in the US job
market (Fig 12).
A quick look at the unemployment rates after the past six recessions indicates that the
unemployment rate has grown the slowest this time (since 2007 recession).
Fig 12 - Labor participating rate is falling, albeit
marginally
Fig 13 - but unemployment recovery has been slower
than usual



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Inflation remains low signaling weak demand
Inflation in the US, despite huge money creation over the last five years, has remained
stubbornly low and much below the FOMCs long-term objective of 2%, clearly indicating
weak demand. As such, still high unemployment levels and a much lower-than-projected
inflation levels have forced the Fed to maintain the current low federal funds rate till
2015. The inflationary concerns have been highlighted in the press release, as stated
below:
The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2% objective could pose
risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for
evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Fig 14 - US inflation still below Feds 2% projection Fig 15 - continuing to keep Fed fund rates at low levels



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Macro snippets
Indias crude oil production up by 1.9% in Feb
Crude oil production in India grew by 1.9%YoY in Feb14, according to data released by
Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas. Crude oil companies produced 2.93mn tonnes of
crude oil as compared 2.88mn tonnes in Feb13. The two state-owned upstream
companies: ONGC and OIL reported a poor performance on production front.
Indias refinery throughput up by 3.2% in Feb
According to data released by the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of
Petroleum & Natural Gas, refinery throughput in India increased by 3.2%YoY in Feb14.
Indian refineries processed around 18mn tonnes of crude oil as compared to 17.4mn
tonnes in the corresponding month a year ago.
Retail price inflation for agricultural and rural labourers falls in February
CPI inflation for agricultural labourers, measured by the CPI-AL declined to 8.1% in
Feb14 from 9.1% in Jan14. The fall in retail price inflation for rural labourers, measured
by the CPI-RL, was only a shade lower; from 9.2% in Jan14 to 8.3% in Feb14. The fall in
headline inflation was due to a higher base, as prices remained unchanged.
RBI eases gold import restrictions
The Reserve Bank of India has allowed five domestic private banks - HDFC Bank, Axis
Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank and IndusInd Bank to import gold. This is believed
to be a significant step towards easing of tough curbs on gold imports imposed last year
to cut the countrys trade deficit. The Govt. had allowed only six nominated banks and
three state-run trading agencies to import gold or jewellery earlier
Railway freight traffic rises by 4%YoY in Feb
The Indian Railways carried 86.9mn tonnes of revenue-earning freight traffic in Feb14
as compared to 83.6mn tonnes carried in Feb13, leading to a rise of 4%YoY. A healthy
growth in the freight traffic of iron ore (15%), cement (9%) and foodgrains (9%)
supported the growth in overall freight traffic. Earnings increased by a higher 10.9%
from Rs.71.1bn in Feb13 to Rs.78.8bn in Feb14. The IRs average earnings from freight
increased from Rs.850/tonne in Feb13 to Rs.906.3/tonne in Feb14.

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Key macro indicators
Average daily LAF borrowing over the last week has remained at Rs327bn, still within
the RBIs comfort zone. Amidst tight liquidity conditions due to tax payments last
week, and 14 states borrowing ~Rs56.65bn tomorrow, the RBI conducted two term
repos of Rs100bn (March 19) and Rs400bn (March 21) to ease the liquidity pressures.
With headline inflation cooling off, but the core still remaining sticky, we do not rule
out the possibility of further hikes (in FY15), but expect these to be few and far
between, depending on the inflation trajectory. We expect the RBI to maintain status
quo on rates in the April 1
st
policy meet.
Call-money rates rose to 8.18% from 7.88% last week.
The credit-deposit ratio increased to 77.18 from 77.08 a fortnight ago.
The investment-deposit ratio fell to 29.09 from 29.51 a fortnight ago.
Cash-deposit ratio rose to 4.76 from 4.70 a fortnight ago.
FX reserves rose to $297.3bn from $295.4bn a week ago.
Average daily borrowing at LAF remained flat at Rs 327bn last week.
Fig 16 - Credit and Deposit growth trend
Fig 17 - Credit-deposit and Investment-deposit trend

Source: RCML Research, RBI

Fig 18 - Cash-deposit trend
Fig 19 - FX reserves growth trend

Source: RBI, RCML Research

Source: RBI, RCML Research
15.2%
13.9%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
24.0%
May-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14
(%)
Deposits growth Credit growth
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
70
72
74
76
78
80
(%)
Credit-Deposit Ratio Investment-Deposit Ratio ( R)
4.76
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14
(%)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
250
270
290
310
330
(%) (US$bn)
Total FX reserves % growth yoy (R)
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Fig 20 - Broad Money (M3) trend Fig 21 - Narrow Money (M0) growth trend


Fig 22 - Call Money rate trend Fig 23 - LAF borrowing trend


Fig 24 - CP issuance trend Fig 25 - CD issuance trend



11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
20
40
60
80
100
(%) (Rsbn)
M3 M3 growth (R)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
8
10
12
14
16
18
(%) (Rsbn)
Reserve Money (M0) % growth (R)
8.18%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
(%)
2
5
8
11
14
17
20
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14
(%) (Rsbn)
Amount Outstanding (LHS) Low High
3
6
9
12
15
-
800
1,600
2,400
3,200
4,000
4,800
Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14
(%) (Rsbn)
Amt outstanding (LHS) Low High
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Markets
Equity markets across the globe were up last week as the US market rebounded after
positive manufacturing data (Philadelphia fed business survey); this along with leading
indicator reports suggested that the slowdown from weather disruptions was
temporary.
Domestic indices were mixed last week on concerns that foreign capital inflows will
slow after the Fed continued its tapering program, reducing monetary stimulus for the
US economy and signaling a potential rise in interest rates. Amidst these concerns, FII
buying continued in India (debt: $5.9bn YTD, equity: $1.9bn YTD). FMCG and Metals
were the winners, while Oil & Gas declined by 1.7%. The INR appreciated by 0.4%.
Fig 26 - Key global indices weekly returns Fig 27 - Key domestic indices weekly returns



Fig 28 - Sector-wise weekly return

Fig 29 - Institutional fund flow and Sensex


-0.3%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.8%
-0.7%
1.4%
2.2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Sensex MSCI IndiaMSCI India
($)
MSCI EM MSCI EM
Asia
S&P500 Shanghai
-0.3%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.4%
1.7%
2.4%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
Sensex NIFTY Defty BSE100 BSE500 Midcap Small-cap
-0.6%
0.4%
-1.5%
3.3%
0.6%
-0.8%
3.5%
-1.7%
0.2%
-1.3%
-0.3%
-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
A
u
t
o
B
a
n
k
s
C
a
p
.
G
o
o
d
s
F
M
C
G
P
h
a
r
m
a
I
T
M
e
t
a
l
s
O
i
l

&

G
a
s
P
o
w
e
r
R
e
a
l
t
y
T
e
l
e
c
o
m
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
(US$mn) FII DMF Sensex (R)
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Fig 30 - INR versus key currencies (1W) Fig 31 - Price of Indian crude oil basket)


Source: PPAC, RCML Research
Fig 32 - India equity market volatility Fig 33 - India 10-year G-sec yield (%)



0.43
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
(%)
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500
90
100
110
120
130
Jul-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Jul-13 Mar-14
(Rs/bbl) (US$/bbl) India crude basket in US$/bbl (L)
India crude basket in Rs/bbl (R)
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2-Dec 17-Dec 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 2-Mar 17-Mar
(%)
7.0
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.4
1-Jan 13-Mar 23-May 2-Aug 12-Oct 22-Dec 3-Mar
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Global markets
IMF Global GDP forecast (%)
2013E 2014E 2015E
Developed 1.3 2.2 2.3
Emerging 4.7 5.4 5.4
World 3.0 3.7 3.9
Source: IMF, RCML Research *Note: Updated on Jan14
Fig 34 - Key global indices Weekly returns Fig 35 - Global crude oil prices

Source: RCML Research, Bloomberg. *MSCI indices

Fig 36 - Global and BRIC policy rates Fig 37 - MSCI global equities indices


Fig 38 - Global Commodities Jefferies Index Fig 39 - Inflation across Emerging Markets


6.9
5.3
1.3
0.9 0.7
0.5 0.5 0.4
(0.1)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.8)
(1.5) (1.6)
(5.0)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
B
R
R
U
U
S
M
Y
W
o
r
l
d
K
R
U
K
C
N
I
N
G
S
C
I
E
M

A
s
i
a
T
H
T
W
J
P
I
D
(%)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jul-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Jul-13 Mar-14
(US$/bbl)
India crude basket in Rs/bbl
Brent crude in US$/bbl (R)
Oman Crude Oil US$/bbl (R)
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14
250
270
290
310
330
Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
(%)
Russia Brazil China India
Malaysia Indonesia Thailand
IEA forecasts on global oil demand
(mb/d) 2012 2013E 2014E
America 23.7 23.8 23.7
Europe 13.7 13.5 13.4
Asia 8.6 8.4 8.3
Source: RCML Research, IEA
IIP for major countries
(%) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
US 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8
China 10.3 10.0 9.7 - 8.6
Europe 0.4 2.8 1.2 2.2 -
Germany 1.2 3.9 3.6 5.0 -
Japan 5.4 4.8 7.1 10.3 -
Source: Bloomberg *China IIP average for Jan and Feb
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Macroeconomic snapshot
Year to 31 March FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
National Income Indicators*
Nominal GDP (Rs bn) 21,687 23,483 25,307 28,379 32,422 36,934 42,947 49,871 56,301 64,778 77,841 90,097 1,01,133 1,10,132
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 475 494 524 618 721 834 948 1,239 1,226 1,366 1,708 1,879 1,856 1,762
Real GDP growth (%) 4.3 5.5 4.0 8.1 7.0 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.6 9.3 6.7 4.5 4.7
Agriculture growth (%) (0.0) 6.0 (6.6) 9.0 0.2 5.1 4.2 5.8 0.1 0.8 7.9 5.0 1.4 3.6
Industry growth (%) 6.0 2.6 7.2 7.3 9.8 9.7 12.2 9.7 4.4 9.2 9.2 7.8 1.0 1.6
Services growth (%) 5.4 6.9 7.0 8.1 8.1 10.9 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.5 9.8 6.6 7.0 6.4
By Demand* (%YoY)
Private Consumption 3.4 6.0 2.9 5.9 5.2 8.6 8.5 9.4 7.2 7.4 8.6 8.0 4.0 4.1
Public Consumption 1.4 2.4 (0.2) 2.8 4.0 8.9 3.8 9.6 10.4 13.9 5.9 8.6 3.9 5.5
Gross Fixed Capital Form. (1.4) 15.3 (0.4) 10.6 24.0 16.2 13.8 16.2 3.5 6.8 7.5 5.5 1.7 0.2
Cons., Inv., Savings ** (%GDP)
Consumption 77.5 77.6 75.9 73.9 70.1 69.2 68.0 67.3 69.4 69.7 68.7 67.7 68.7 68.7
Gross Capital Formation 24.2 25.7 25.0 25.3 32.5 34.3 35.9 38.0 35.4 35.8 34.8 35.5 35.6 35.6
Gross Domestic Savings 23.8 24.9 25.9 29.0 32.4 33.5 34.6 36.9 32.2 33.7 31.5 30.0 28.5 30.0
Real Indicators (%YoY)
Cement dispatches (domestic) (0.6) 9.8 8.4 5.5 8.5 11.4 9.7 8.0 8.0 10.4 4.5 7.0 9.0 5.0
Commercial vehicle sales (12.3) 5.4 28.0 36.8 25.5 12.4 32.1 6.2 (22.3) 35.4 31.4 18.8 (3.2) 10.0
Car sales (7.5) (5.5) 9.6 34.3 19.4 7.3 20.6 11.5 9.7 26.9 22.4 5.1 (3.7) (2.0)
Two-wheelers (0.8) 15.0 15.9 12.8 16.8 15.1 12.3 (5.0) 4.6 24.5 26.5 15.7 2.4 3.0
Diesel consumption 12.4 9.2 7.8 (2.7) 2.1 5.1 7.0 5.0
Electricity growth (%) 4.2 3.2 3.0 6.1 5.2 4.9 7.5 7.8 2.6 7.9 1.4 8.1 4.0 4.0
Fertilizers growth (%)*** 0.5 (4.4) 1.6 (2.6) 8.1 (0.4) (11.5) 5.9 0.3 14.0 3.1 0.2 8.1 6.0
Urea growth (%)*** (0.7) (3.4) (2.0) 2.3 6.3 (0.8) 0.9 (2.1) 0.4 6.0 3.6 0.6 2.6 1.0
Rest of fertilizers growth (%)*** 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 9.1 4.0
Aviation passenger km (%)***** 7.6 (5.9) 10.9 13.5 23.8 31.4 41.5 24.5 (11.2) 18.4 20.7 11.7 (5.9) (10.0)
Crude Steel growth (%) 4.8 4.0 8.0 28.2 12.2 7.0 9.4 6.0 1.2 20.8 5.7 na 5.4 4.0
Coal Dispatches**** 203 211 304 235 333 350 375 401 415 516 527 465 470
Port traffic - Import growth(%)***** (1.8) 0.1 4.9 7.5 10.9 13.5 9.8 10.8 3.7 12.2 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.0
Port traffic - Export growth(%)***** 16.9 7.8 18.6 11.9 13.3 4.3 7.2 12.5 1.1 0.4 0.7 (8.8) (9.2) 2.0
External Sector (%YoY)
Exports (US$ bn) 44 44 53 64 84 103 126 163 183 178 251 303 307 322
%YoY 20.1 (0.4) 20.2 20.9 30.7 23.4 22.5 29.1 12.3 (2.6) 40.6 20.9 1.1 5.2
Imports (US$ bn) 50 49 62 78 111 149 185 250 299 288 369 488 502 478
%YoY 0.5 (3.0) 26.7 27.1 42.5 33.8 24.1 35.0 19.8 (3.9) 28.4 32.2 2.8 (4.8)
Trade deficit (US$ bn) (6) (5) (9) (14) (28) (46) (59) (87) (116) (109) (119) (185) (196) (156)
Invisibles (US$ bn) 9.8 15.0 17.0 27.8 31.2 42.0 52.2 75.7 91.6 80.0 84.6 111.6 108 111
Current Account Deficit (US$ bn) (2.7) 3.4 6.3 14.1 (2.5) (6.9) (9.6) (15.7) (27.9) (38.2) (45.9) (78.2) (88) (44)
% to GDP (0.6) 0.7 1.2 2.3 (0.3) (0.8) (1.0) (1.3) (2.3) (2.8) (2.7) (4.2) (4.8) (2.6)
Forex Assets (ex. gold) (US$ bn) 39.6 48.1 71.9 107.5 135.6 144.8 191.9 299.2 241.4 259.7 278.9 264.5 260 55.6
Months of imports 9.5 11.9 14.0 16.5 14.6 11.7 12.4 14.4 9.7 10.8 9.1 6.5 6.2 3.2
External Debt (US$ bn) 101.3 98.8 104.9 111.6 133.0 138.1 172.4 224.4 224.5 260.9 305.9 345.8 390 450
Short Term debt (US$ bn) 3.6 2.7 4.7 4.4 17.7 19.5 28.1 45.7 43.3 52.3 65.0 78.2 97 25
Exchange Rate

US$/INR - annual avg 45.6 47.6 48.3 45.9 44.9 44.3 45.3 40.2 45.9 47.4 45.6 47.9 54.5 62.5
% depreciation 7.0 4.3 1.6 (4.9) (2.1) (1.5) 2.3 (11.1) 14.1 3.3 (3.9) 5.2 13.7 14.7
US$/INR - year end 46.7 48.3 48.0 45.6 43.5 45.1 44.2 39.4 48.4 46.6 44.6 53.3 54.3 62.0
% depreciation 4.8 3.4 (0.6) (4.9) (4.7) 3.7 (2.1) (10.8) 22.7 (3.6) (4.3) 19.5 1.9 14.2
Monetary Indicators (%YoY)
Money supply 16.8 14.1 14.7 16.8 12.3 21.2 21.3 21.4 19.3 16.9 16.1 13.2 12.4 13.0
Inflation - WPI (Avg) 7.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.5 4.5 6.6 4.7 8.1 3.8 9.6 8.9 7.4 6.0
CPI (Avg) 3.8 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4 6.7 6.2 9.1 12.4 10.5 9.0 10.2 9.0
Bank credit growth 16.6 11.4 26.6 16.0 26.2 38.0 28.1 22.3 17.5 16.9 21.5 17.0 14.6 14.0
Deposit growth 16.2 25.2 11.6 23.7 19.0 25.4 16.7 15.0 16.7 26.2 21.2 11.8 13.0 13.5
Fiscal Indicators (%GDP)
Center's fiscal deficit (5.5) (6.0) (5.7) (4.3) (3.9) (4.0) (3.3) (2.5) (6.0) (6.4) (4.9) (5.7) (4.9) (4.6)
State fiscal deficit (4.1) (4.1) (3.9) (4.3) (3.2) (2.3) (1.7) (1.7) (2.5) (3.0) (2.7) (2.3) (2.7) (2.7)
Combined deficit (Center + State) (9.6) (10.1) (9.7) (8.6) (7.1) (6.3) (5.0) (4.3) (8.5) (9.5) (7.6) (8.2) (7.6) (7.3)
Source: CMIE, RBI, CSO, RCML Research
* At constant price ** At current prices ***Government Estimates for FY13 ****Only for CIL *****CMIE Estimates
Macro Junction
imports!

Economics
INDIA


Balance of Payments snapshot
US$ bn FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Current Account
Exports 251 303 307 322 342
%YoY 40.6% 20.9% 1.1% 5.2% 6.1%
Imports 369 488 502 478 515
%YoY 28.4% 32.2% 2.8% -4.8% 7.6%
Trade balance (RBI) (131) (190) (196) (156) (172)
%GDP -7.6% -10.1% -10.6% -9.1% -8.8%
Software Earnings 56.8 61.0 63.5 67.1 70.4
%YoY 17.8% 7.3% 4.2% 5.6% 5.0%
Remittances 53.4 63.5 64.3 64.5 67.1
%YoY 2.5% 18.9% 1.4% 0.3% 4.0%
Rest (25.5) (12.8) (20.4) (20.2) (20.0)
Invisibles Total 85 112 107 111 118
%YoY 5.8% 31.8% -3.7% 3.6% 5.5%
Current Acc. Balance (46) (78) (88) (44) (55)
%GDP -2.7% -4.2% -4.8% -2.6% -2.8%
Capital Account
Loans 27.9 19.3 31.1 18.3 19.3
ECBs 12.5 10.3 8.5 6.4 6.7
Short-term Loans 11.0 6.7 21.7 10.8 11.4
Rest of loans 4.36 2.30 0.98 1.08 1.24
NRI deposits 3.2 11.9 14.8 25.0 15.0
Foreign investments 37.4 39.2 46.7 13.7 26.0
%YoY -22.3% 4.8% 19.1% -70.6% 89.8%
FDI 7.14 22.06 19.82 12.21 11.23
FII 30.29 17.17 26.89 1.50 14.80
Capital Account 60 68 89 56 58
%YoY 18.6% 13.4% 31.8% -37.7% 4.1%
%GDP 3.5% 3.6% 4.8% 3.2% 3.0%
Balance of Payments 11 (13) 3.83 11.22 2.98
USDINR (end of year) 45.6 47.9 54.3 62.0 65.0
Source: RBI, RCML Research *Note numbers have been revised
Macro Junction
imports!

Economics
INDIA


Fiscal budget snapshot
(Rsbn) FY13 FY14BE FY14RE %YoY FY15BE %YoY FY15E %YoY
Central govt. net tax revenue 7,403 8,841 8,360 12.9% 9,864 18.0% 9,546 14.2%
Of which -
Income Tax 2,015 2,476 2,417 20.0% 3,065 26.8% 2,900 20.0%
Corporate Tax 3,563 4,195 3,937 10.5% 4,510 14.6% 4,425 12.4%
Custom Duties 1,653 1,873 1,751 5.9% 2,013 15.0% 1,926 10.0%
Excise Duties 1,765 1,976 1,795 1.7% 2,006 11.7% 1,939 8.0%
Service Tax 1,326 1,801 1,649 24.4% 2,155 30.7% 2,095 27.0%
Other Taxes 39 37 40 2.0% 44 8.3% 43 8.0%
States and UTs' share (2,915) (3,470) (3,182) 9.2% (3,877) 21.8% (3,732) 17.3%
NCCD transferred to the National
Calamity/Disaster Funds
(44) (48) (47) 4.9% (51) 8.6% (51) 8.6%
Non-tax revenue 1,374 1,723 1,932 40.7% 1,807 -6.5% 1,784 -7.7%
Telecom auctions 18,902 40,847 40,847 116.1% 38,954 -4.6% 38,954 -4.6%
Dividends and profits 538 739 882 64.0% 772 -12.4% 750 -15.0%
Central govt. revenue receipts 8,776 10,563 10,293 17.3% 11,671 13.4% 11,329 10.1%
Non-debt Capital Receipts 422 665 366 -13.1% 675 84.1% 543 48.1%
Divestment Proceeds 259 558 258 -0.2% 569 120.3% 400 54.8%
Total Receipts 9,198 11,228 10,659 15.9% 12,346 15.8% 11,872 11.4%
Non-plan Expenditure 9,967 11,100 11,149 11.9% 12,079 8.3% 12,045 8.0%
Of which Capital Expenditure 824 1,171 872 5.8% 1,001 14.8% 967 10.8%
Of which Revenue Expenditure 9,143 9,929 10,277 12.4% 11,078 7.8% 11,078 7.8%
Subsidy outgo 2,577 2,311 2,555 -0.8% 2,557 0.1% 2,573 0.7%
Food 850 900 920 8.2% 1,150 25.0% 1,160 26.1%
Fertilizers 660 660 680 3.0% 680 0.0% 680 0.0%
Oil 969 650 855 -11.8% 634 -25.8% 640 -25.1%
Others 98 101 101 2.7% 93 -7.5% 93 -7.5%
Plan Expenditure 4,136 5,553 4,755 15.0% 5,553 16.8% 5,270 10.8%
Of which Capital Expenditure 844 1,121 1,037 22.8% 1,130 9.0% 1,089 5.0%
Of which Revenue Expenditure 3,292 4,433 3,719 13.0% 4,423 18.9% 4,181 12.4%
Total Expenditure 14,104 16,653 15,904 12.8% 17,632 10.9% 17,315 8.9%
Fiscal Deficit (4,906) (5,425) (5,245) 6.9% (5,286) 0.8% (5,443) 3.8%
Revenue Deficit (3,659) (3,798) (3,703) (3,829) (3,930)
Primary Deficit (1,774) (1,718) (1,445) (1,016) (1,186)
Nominal GDP 1,01,133 1,13,205 1,13,205 11.9% 1,28,400 13.4% 1,28,400
Fiscal Deficit/GDP 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.2
Revenue Deficit/GDP 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.1
Primary Deficit/GDP 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.9
Source: India Budget documents, CGA, RCML Research
Macro Junction
imports!

Economics
INDIA


Previous reports
Fig 40 - RCML Economics and Strategy Reports over the last month
Date Title
18-Mar-14 Macro Junction - Inflation comes off; Rabi remains robust
14-Mar-14 Feb WPI at 4.7% YoY - Follows CPI down, but core bucks the trend
12-Mar-14 Jan IIP: 0.1%; Feb CPI: 8.1% - IIP recovers amid marginal drop in core CPI
11-Mar-14 Feb14 trade deficit at $8.1bn - Import-led relief continues
10-Mar-14 Macro Junction - Blockbuster week for India
7-May-14 India Strategy: 2014 Elections: Andhra Pradesh - No alliance yet, fragmented mandate likely
6-Mar-14 India Strategy: INR at ~3-month highs: Debt > Equity on FX stability, but not for long
5-Mar-14 Q3FY14 Balance of Payments - Q3 CAD: 0.8%; INR saved by NRIs
3-Mar-14 Macro Junction - Q3 GDP: 4.7%, a protracted recovery ahead
Source: RCML Research


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Flows defy the Fed; We love Chinese imports!

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