Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR) and value of alpha (a%) for Islamic banks in Bahrain / GCC. Phenomenal growth of Islamic Banking and Finance in recent years has highlighted needs for policies to help integrate Islamic finance in the national and global financial system.
Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR) and value of alpha (a%) for Islamic banks in Bahrain / GCC. Phenomenal growth of Islamic Banking and Finance in recent years has highlighted needs for policies to help integrate Islamic finance in the national and global financial system.
Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR) and value of alpha (a%) for Islamic banks in Bahrain / GCC. Phenomenal growth of Islamic Banking and Finance in recent years has highlighted needs for policies to help integrate Islamic finance in the national and global financial system.
Displaced commercial risk (DCR) and value of alpha (%) for
Islamic banks in Bahrain/GCC
Dr. Mohammad Omar Farooq Head of Center for Islamic Finance Bahrain Institute of Banking and Finance, Kingdom of Bahrain Email: farooqm59@gmail.com
Sowmya Vivek Research Analyst/Coordinator Bahrain Institute of Banking and Finance, Kingdom of Bahrain
Paper accepted for Gulf Research Council, July 11-14, 2012 at University of Cambridge, UK
I. Introduction The phenomenal growth of Islamic Banking and Finance in recent years has highlighted needs for policies to help integrate Islamic finance in the national and global financial system. There has also been an understandable increased interest of researchers into understanding unique aspects of Islamic banking and finance and how it can be standardized across the globe. Risk Management in particular is drawing a lot of interest given the current turmoil in the financial system and infrastructure. Few Islamic Bankers believe that Islamic banks overall are less susceptible to risk on account of their nature. However an overwhelming majority rightly feel that in additional to risks which conventional banks follow, Islamic banks face certain risk which are unique to its nature. These risks include risks like Fiduciary risk and Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR). Displaced commercial risk is a unique risk applicable to an Islamic bank particularly in a dual banking environment. Displaced Commercial Risk (DCR) is a special risk Islamic banks are exposed to due to the commercial pressure of a having to pay a rate of return equivalent to a competitive rate of return and absorb a portion of losses which normally would have been borne by investment account holders in order to prevent massive withdrawal of funds. Banks employ a great deal of measures to combat this risk. Profit Equalization Reserves (PER) and Investment Risk Reserve (IRR) play a critical role in the management of DCR in Islamic banks. The PER is retained from the total income before the profit is allocated between shareholders and Investment Account Holders and the calculation of Mudarib Share. IRR is retained only from the profits attributed to Investment Account Holders (After deduction of Mudarib share). The provisioning for these reserves is generally outlined in the contract and is decided by the management. Islamic banks normally invest these reserves to generate additional returns to investment account holders and smooth the returns on PSIA. If the reserves are adequate to avoid the transfer of income from shareholders to Investment Account Holders, there is no exposure to DCR. However DCR is positive if these reserves are insufficient and there is transfer of some proportion of shareholders returns to depositors. The recognition of DCR requires adjustment to Capital adequacy ratio of Islamic banks. IFSB has come up with two methods to adjust the capital adequacy ratio of Islamic banks to account for DCR. The first method excludes risk weighted assets funded by PSIA and hence assumes that the risks are fully absorbed by investment account holders. The second method requires a proportion % of risk-weighted assets financed by Profit Sharing Investment Accounts to be included in the calculation of capital adequacy ratio. This method is more aligned with the market reality in that it recognizes that investment account holders dont fully absorb the risk. % which can take any value between 0 and 1 is taken as a proxy of DCR and moves in a positive relationship with DCR. % is decided by the central bank and all Islamic banks within its jurisdiction are expected to key in this value while calculating their capital adequacy ratio. Given this background our paper looks at the issue of DCR and alpha across GCC with particular emphasis on Bahrain. The paper uses the IFSB methodology to calculate DCR and value of alpha for banks in Bahrain.
II. Literature review Though there has been studies done on DCR and the value of Alpha, not much has been done with focus on GCC, primarily due to lack of disclosures and data. A number of notable research works in this area have been done by Simon Archer and Rifaat Ahmed Abdel Karim (2006; 2010) and Vasudevan Sundarajan (2002). Also substantial research in this area has been done by the Malaysia based Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). 1
III. Challenges regarding profit-sharing contracts 3.1 Management of PSIA and the mudaraba contracts As per definition from AAOIFI, Mudaraba contracts essentially are a partnership in profit between capital and work. It may be conducted between investment account holders as providers of funds and Islamic bank as a mudarib. The Islamic banks announces its willingness to accept the funds of investment amount holders, the sharing of profits being as agreed between the two parties and the losses being borne by the provider of funds except if they were due to misconduct, negligence, or violation of the conditions agreed upon by the Islamic bank. In the latter cases, such losses would be borne by the Islamic bank. 2
There are two types of Mudharbah contracts that the Islamic banks offer namely the restricted profit sharing investment accounts (RPSIA) and unrestricted profit sharing investment accounts (UPSIA).In Restricted PSIA (RPSIA) investment account holders imposes certain restrictions as to where, how and for what purpose his funds are to be invested. Further the Islamic bank may be restricted from commingling its own funds with the restricted investment account funds for purpose of investment. 3
In contrast under Unrestricted PSIA (UPSIA),the investment account holder authorizes the Islamic bank to invest the account holders funds in a manner which the Islamic bank deems appropriate without laying any restrictions as to where, how and for what purpose the funds should be invested. Under this arrangement the Islamic bank can commingle the investment account holders funds with its own funds or with other funds the Islamic bank has the right to use (e.g. current accounts). The investment account holders and the Islamic bank generally participate in the returns of the invested funds. 4
The management of the comingled fund is as shown in Figure 1, where the commingled funds are invested in a specified pool of assets reflecting the general business and management strategy of the Islamic bank. 5
From a Shariah perspective, Mudarabah PSIAs are essentially profit-sharing and loss-bearing investment accounts. However Islamic banks are often forced to smooth the returns on UPSIA owning mainly due to supervisory and commercial pressure. Hence UPSIAs end up being shariah compliant alternative to conventional deposit accounts that are capital guaranteed and have a contractually determined rate of return. Overall the nature and treatment of UPSIA differs from country to country. At one extreme, UPSIA can be highly protected instruments so that UPSIA tend to be deposit-like products where the returns are more or less guaranteed by the Islamic bank. At the other extreme, UPSIA are investment-like products that fully bear the risk of fluctuations in returns and even losses on the underlying investments (i.e. typical Mudarabah investments). However in most cases, UPSIA tend to be a mixture of the two extremes, depending upon the extent of investment risks actually borne by the URIAH. The resulting challenge to Islamic banks and their supervisory authorities is to determine the level of risk sharing between the bank and the IAH. 3.2 Concept of Displaced Commercial Risk and the value of alpha () Displaced commercial risk refers to the extent of additional risk (volatility of returns) borne by an Islamic Banks shareholders compared to the situation where PSIA assume all commercial risks as specified in the Mudarabah contract. IFSB Standard defines DCR as: the risk arising from assets managed on behalf of Investment Account Holders which is effectively transferred to the Islamic Financial Institutions own capital because the Institution forgoes part or all of its mudaribs share (profit) of on such fund, when it considers this necessary as a result of commercial pressure in order to increase the return that would otherwise be payable to Investment Account Holders. 6
As per the Mudarabah contract, an Islamic bank in its capacity as Mudarib does not bear losses if they are not due to negligence and/or misconduct. Hence, the definition of DCR does not include covering of losses of IAH, which in principle are covered by IRR. 7
As discussed earlier, Islamic banks are under commercial pressure to absorb the losses from the UPSIA and pay a competitive rate of return on these accounts. Islamic banks worldwide use smoothing mechanism when determining the rate of return for UPSIA. The smoothing mechanism includes: 3.2.1 Usage of Prudential Reserves The most commonly used method to smooth IAH returns is to set aside reserves like Profit Equalization reserve (PER) and Investment Risk Reserve (IRR). PER is essentially used to stabilize profit payouts to IAHs whereas IRR may be used to cushion losses attributable to IAH. PER is retained from the total income before the profit is allocated between shareholders and Investment Account Holders and the calculation of Mudarib Share and hence forms part of the equities of IAH and shareholders, respectively, which can be drawn down to smooth the profit payouts to IAH when investment returns decline. The accumulated IRR however entirely belongs to IAH and can be used only to cushion any losses (negative asset returns) attributable to IAH that might arise from time to time. Islamic banks make appropriation to PER when the actual asset returns are higher and these appropriations may be reversed when actual asset returns are lower than market-related levels. In addition, appropriations to IRR can be made from the IAH share of profit, to be reversed when asset returns are negative. As long as Islamic banks can manage the distribution of returns on PSIA entirely though adjustments in PER without any recourse to income transfer from shareholders and/or adjusting the Mudarib share of profits, there will be no DCR at the point of assessing the requirement for additional capital charges. However there are some limitations on the accumulations of these reserves. In many countries the central bank put an upper limit on the appropriations to these reserves mainly on account of intergenerational problems. 3.2.2 Adjusting the Mudarib Share The second recourse which Islamic banks utilize to smooth the return is by temporarily reducing its Mudarib share below the contractual share. However, this mechanism can only be used for income smoothing in the absence of losses, as investment losses on PSIA funds are to be borne by IAH themselves, while the Islamic banks merely receives no share of profit as Mudarib. 3.2.3 Transfers from Shareholders Funds The last alternative to smooth the returns of IAH (but not to cover losses) is that Islamic banks management may (with the shareholders approval) donate some portion of the shareholders income to IAH, so as to offer the latter a level of return close to the market benchmark level, when the investment returns of the IIFS are lower than the benchmark. The size of the donation from shareholders required to achieve a desired rate of return to IAH depends upon the available level of PER, the market benchmark return, and the actual investment return of the IIFS. Prior research in this aspect clearly reveal that there is significant absorption of risks by Islamic banks, since many banks with sharply divergent risk profiles and rates of return on assets seem to be offering almost identical rates of return to IAH, and these rates are generally in line with the general rate of return on deposits in conventional institutions. In fact Islamic banks prefer to have DCR on their books and have a mechanism of transfer of income from shareholders to IAH instead of facing liquidity and withdrawal risks that may result from IAH being dissatisfied by the returns they receive. Hence Islamic banks essentially make a trade-off between DCR and withdrawal risk, with its systemic characteristics. 3.2.4 Definition of alpha Alpha is the ratio of actual risk transferred to shareholders- that is the DCR in the situation of full risk transfer to shareholders ( that is the full risk of the actual profit being below the benchmark, but not the risk of IAH losses) implying the maximum value of DCR. A value of alpha near 0 implies an investment like product with the IAH bearing the risk whereas value of alpha close to 1 implies a deposit like product with the IAH bearing virtually no risk as shown in figure 2. IV. Capital adequacy and supervisory implications The recognition of DCR makes it necessary for Islamic Banks to provide capital for the same, subject to any risk mitigation including appropriation to PER and IRR accounts. There are essentially two methods advocated by IFSB to adjust the capital adequacy ratio to account for DCR. The first method is called the standard formula whereby risk weighted assets funded by PSIA are excluded and hence it assumes that the risks are fully absorbed by investment account holders. In this case UPSIA are treated like pure investment products wherein IAH bears 100% of credit and market risk of assets funded by them. The CAR in this case will be Eligible capital Total RWA (Credit + market risks) + Operational risk Less RWA funded by PSIA (credit + market risks) The second method also called the supervisory discretion formula requires a proportion % of risk-weighted assets financed by Profit Sharing Investment Accounts to be included in the calculation of capital adequacy ratio. This method is more aligned with the market reality in that it recognizes that investment account holders dont fully absorb the risk. % which can take any value between 0 and 1 is taken as a proxy of DCR and moves in a positive relationship with DCR. % is decided by the central bank and all Islamic banks within its jurisdiction are expected to key in this value while calculating their capital adequacy ratio. Hence under this method, UPSIA are treated as a mix of both deposit and investment products. Under this, Islamic banks bear a proportion of credit and market risk of assets funded by IAH. Alpha is the corresponding proportion of assets funded by unrestricted PSIA, as determined by national supervisors. The CAR in this case will be Eligible capital Total RWA (Credit + market risks) + Operational risk Less RWA funded by Restricted PSIA (credit + market risks) Less (1- ) (RWA funded by unrestricted PISA (credit + market risk) Less (RWA funded by PER and IRR of unrestricted PSIA (credit +market risks) 4.1 CAR based on IFSB methodology: An Example The example below indicates the computation of CAR for a hypothetical Islamic Bank. The example also highlights how a change in alpha will impact the capital adequacy ratio.
Table 1: CAR computation of a hypothetical Islamic Bank Liabilities Demand Deposits 200 URIAH 500 RIAH 250 PER and IRR 50 Shareholder's capital 20
Risk-adjusted assets financed by IAH 100 Risk adjusted assets financed by PER and IRR 10 Alpha 30% Adjustment for market and operational risk 62.5
CAR according to the standard Formula
20 = 9.88% (250+62.5)-(100+10)
CAR according to the supervisory discretion formula
20 = 8.15% (250+62.5)-(0.7X100-0.3X10)
If Alpha is changed to 60%
CAR according to the supervisory discretion formula would be
20 = 7.18% (250+62.5)-(0.4X100-0.6X10)
The above example illustrates how a change in alpha can impact the Capital adequacy ratio. This highlights the importance of setting a value for alpha that fairly reflects the amount of DCR, taking account of the risk mitigating effects of the PER and IRR. Setting up of the right value of alpha is very important and has very important supervisory implications. If supervisory authorities set alpha at 0 when in fact it should be set close to 1, the result is likely to be Islamic banks that are significantly undercapitalized, with consequent threats to financial stability. Conversely, setting alpha close to 1 when in fact it should be set much lower, will result in Islamic banks being required to carry excess amounts of capital, which will impair their ability to compete. Thus, accurate supervisory assessments of alpha is very important to fostering stability without undermining the competitive position of Islamic banks, and to providing adequate incentives for Islamic Banks to manage the DCR in respect of their PSIA. This paper, therefore, sets out to provide a method whereby an appropriate value for alpha can be approximated using a set of relevant data. The model uses basic accounting definitions in defining the value of DCR and alpha. The data for this model has been taken from Banks annual reports and disclosures. 8
It is very important for Islamic banks to know about the appropriate levels of PER and IRR, given their exposure to DCR. The purpose of setting aside these reserves is not just to improve the CAR as calculated formulaically. Rather, the appropriate value of alpha needs to be determined taking into account the incidence of DCR and the actual mitigating effects of these reserves. The following section addresses these issues. 4.2 The model and the overall accounting framework 9
We will start with developing the basic accounting framework for defining the DCR and alpha. The model outlined below is based on the model developed by IFSB to measure DCR and alpha and uses the same accounting framework as developed by IFSB. Risk in this model is modeled using variability of asset returns. Unexpectedly, low returns that fall below a threshold value or unexpectedly high losses that exceed a threshold level at a specified probability level, serve as the measures of risks that Islamic banks shareholders will face under various scenarios. In order to assess the returns to PSIA, and the associated risks measured by the variability of these returns, a basic framework is needed for measuring the mudarabah profits, defined as profits that are available for distribution between IAH as capital provider and the IIFS as mudarib. This framework is shown in Figure 1. Below are the definitions and accounting equations of variables we will use in the model. 4.2.1 Mudarabah Profits The existing applicable accounting standards, as per IFSB Guidance Note, state that when an Islamic bank commingles its own funds and the Mudarabah funds of unrestricted IAH (UIAH), profits are first allocated between Mudaribs own funds (shareholders funds) and UIAH funds according to the capital contribution of each of the two parties. The share of an Islamic bank as a Mudarib for its role as fund manager is then deducted from the share of profits allocated to UIAH. Based on this, Mudarabah profits (before allocating Mudarib share) attributable (i.e. after appropriations to or releases from PER) between UIAH and the IIFS as a Mudarib can be defined as investment income from balance sheet assets (the latter may include other assets in the investment pool, based on other sources of funds, including current accounts) plus trading income minus provisions, minus appropriations to PER, minus income attributable to sources not included in the investment pool. Mudarabah income before allocating the Mudarib share can therefore be written as follows: RM = A.(R A S P ) A.R P KR K
Where: RM: Mudarabah income A: Total assets, equal to the sum of shareholders funds (K), and UPSIA funds (DI) and other funds (OF) R A : The gross rate of return on assets S P : Provisions made out of current income as a percentage of assets R P : Appropriation to PER as a percentage of total assets KR K : Income attributable to the shareholders outside of the Mudarabah, such as income from assets funded by current accounts, and before the attribution of the Mudarib share, expressed in terms of a rate of return on shareholders funds, RK.
4.2.2 Rate of Return to IAH The IAH get their returns only from the specified profit-sharing ratio applied to Mudarabah profits. The amount of profit distributed to IAH is, therefore, the agreed share of Mudarabah profit net of appropriations to (or plus releases from) PER and, where applicable, IRR plus any income transfer from shareholders funds. This is not the same as the income attributable to PSIA that is, the amount of the agreed Mudarabah profit share of PSIA before any transfers in or out of the PER and/or IRR. RI = .RM/DI R IR
Where: : % of IAH share RM: Mudarabah income DI: UPSIA funds R IR : Appropriation to IRR as a percentage of total assets
4.2.3 Rate of Return to Shareholders Equity The returns to shareholders are derived from both their share of returns in the pool of investment assets acquired using the commingled IAH/shareholders funds, plus their share of Mudarabah profits for the services as a Mudarib, and the net earnings from other funds for example, income from other banking services and other non-PSIA assets that are funded from other sources. Accordingly, the rate of return on shareholders equity (R E ) 10 can be written as follows: R E = (1 ). {RM/K + A. R P /K} + R K
Where: (1 B): Mudaribs share RM: Mudarabah income K: Shareholders funds A: Total assets, equal to the sum of shareholders funds (K), and UPSIA funds (DI) and other funds (OF) R P : Appropriation to PER as a percentage of total assets R K : The rate of return on shareholders funds that is invested in other assets.
4.2.4 Net Profits, and Return on Assets As a measure of profitability, return on assets is defined as the sum of net profits to shareholders plus income attributable to PSIA (i.e. total net profits of the year before distribution to IAH) expressed as a percentage of total assets. (Total assets are defined as the sum of shareholders and UPSIA funds.) The gross rate of return on assets is equal to the rate of return on assets after adding back provisions expressed as a percentage of assets. The conventional measure of the rate of return on assets defined as total net profits before any distribution to IAH as a percentage of average total assets can also be used for estimation purposes. 4.2.5 Other Data Estimation of DCR and alpha also requires other data including the amounts of transfers made from and/or to PER and IRR, Mudarib share as a percentage, amounts of transfers made from shareholders' funds, total assets, average UPSIA, a market benchmark for the rate of return to be paid to IAH, the amount of provisions appropriated from the gross income, gross income for the financial year, gross income to shareholders, and gross income available for IAH. 4.3 The model The model we are using to calculate DCR and alpha is based on the model developed by IFSB. The IFSB model relies on basic accounting equations to define DCR and deduce the value. The IFSB model assumes that rate of return to be paid to IAH (Ri) can be modelled as a function of two variables: the rate of return on assets (RA), which represents the income available for distribution between IAH and IIFS shareholders; and the market benchmark rate (Rm), which represents alternative returns available to depositors generally, including IAH, in the market. 11
The section below outlines the methodology developed by IFSB in measuring DCR and Alpha. 4.3.1 Estimation of DCR and Alpha The method developed by IFSB for calculating DCR and alpha involves the following steps: Step 1: Estimate w. Step 2: Estimate return to shareholders under alternative scenarios. Step 3: Compute unexpected losses to shareholders under alternative scenarios. Step 4: Estimate DCR and alpha. The procedures required for each step are further detailed in the following paragraphs. Step 1: Estimation of w The relationship between the co-movement of rate of return on assets and market benchmark, and rate of return to IAH can be modeled as : R i = w. (R m ) + (1 w). R A
Where R m : Market benchmark rate Step 2: Estimation of return to shareholders under alternative scenarios Scenario 1: PSIA are treated as pure investment products Under this scenario, all commercial risks arising from assets funded by IAH are borne by the IAH themselves. In other words, there is no smoothing of payouts to IAH. Therefore, there will not be DCR and, accordingly, values of alpha and w will be zero. Other risk determinants PER and IRR, transfer of income from shareholders to IAH will also be zero, and Mudarib's share will be fixed (i.e. under this scenario, alpha = 0, w = 0, R I = R A S P , IRR/PER = 0). Therefore, the rate of return to shareholders will depend strictly on investment return (i.e. return on assets and Mudarib's share): R E0 = R A S P
The standard deviation of R E0 will give an estimate of unexpected losses under this scenario. Scenario 2: PSIA are treated as pure deposit-like products Under this hypothetical scenario, IAH bear no losses and all commercial risks arising from assets funded by IAH are borne by shareholders. Therefore, DCR will be at its maximum and, accordingly, values of alpha and w will also be at their maximum that is, 1. Other risk determinants PER and IRR, Mudaribs share and income transfer from shareholders to IAH will vary according to the payout policy adopted by the Islamic bank (i.e. under this scenario, alpha = 1, w = 1, R I = R m ). The rate of return to equity will be as follows: R E1 = (R A S P ) + DI/K.(R A S P R m ) The standard deviation of R E1 will give an estimate of unexpected losses under this scenario. Scenario 3: PSIA are treated as being in-between pure investment and deposit-like products Under this scenario, which represents an intermediate situation between the two extreme cases (scenarios 1 and 2), the payout to IAH is a weighted average of market return and investment return. Accordingly, there is risk-return sharing between IAH and shareholders of the IIFS resulting in some DCR. The values of alpha and w will, therefore, fall between zero and 1. Other risk determinants: PER and IRR, Mudaribs share, and transfer of income from shareholders to IAH will depend on the Islamic Banks payout policy and sufficiency of reserves held by IAH. The rate of return to equity is expressed as follows: R E2 = (R A S P ) + DI/K.w.(R A S P R m ) The standard deviation of R E2 will give an estimate of unexpected losses under this scenario. Step 3: Computation of unexpected losses to shareholders under alternative scenarios Assuming a normal probability distribution, and using the standard deviations of rate of return on equity (RE) that are obtained in step 2, the corresponding unexpected loss to shareholders under the three above-mentioned scenarios of PSIA can be calculated as follows: Scenario 1: Unexpected loss to shareholders when PSIA are treated as pure investment products: UL 0 = a multiple of the standard deviation of R E0
Scenario 2: Unexpected loss to shareholders when PSIA are treated as pure deposit like products: UL 1 = a multiple of the standard deviation of R E1
Scenario 3: Unexpected loss to shareholders when PSIA are treated as being in between pure investment and deposit-like products: UL 2 = a multiple of the standard deviation of R E2
Step 4: Estimation of DCR and alpha From the unexpected losses to shareholders that were obtained in step 3, DCR and alpha can be obtained using the following equations: DCR = UL 2 UL 0
Maximum DCR = UL 1 UL 0
Alpha = (UL 2 UL 0 ) / (UL 1 UL 0 ) We follow the same model as developed by IFSB however we have calculated scenario 3 as simulated returns of scenario 1 and 2. 12
V. Treatment of URIAH accounts in Bahrain and other GCC countries Bahrain is undoubtedly the most established financial center in the Gulf and a global hub for Islamic Finance with a growing number of Islamic banks and financial institutions. The country was amongst the first few to recognize the potential and demand for Islamic banking and developed the industry at a time when it was not drawing the international interest and attention. As of 2010, the country has 24 Islamic banks operating (of which 23 are locally incorporated) with a total asset base of USD 36 billion. In the last five Bahrain's Islamic financial assets has more than doubled from being worth 16 billion dollars in 2006 to 36 billion dollars in 2010. 13
Besides Bahrain UAE and Qatar are also emerging centers for Islamic finance accounting for approximately 20% and 10% respectively of the global Islamic asset base. As of 2010, UAE has 10 Islamic banks operating in the country whereas Qatar has 5 Islamic banks within its territory. 14
Table 2. Alpha levels in Practice Country Level of alpha Bahrain 0.3 Dubai 0.35 Indonesia 1 Malaysia 1 Qatar 0.35 Sudan 0.5
5.1 Treatment of URIAH accounts in Bahrain Under URIAH contracts, banks are authorized by the IAH to invest the account holders funds on the basis of Mudaraba contract in a manner which the bank deems appropriate without laying down any restrictions as to where, how and for what purpose the funds should be invested. Islamic banks in Bahrain comingle the equity of the IAHs investment funds with its own funds or with other funds like the current accounts. The bank and IAH generally participate in the returns on the invested funds. The banks do not take liability for any losses incurred on the joint pool other than the loss resulting from gross negligence or willful misconduct on the part of the bank or due to the banks violation of the terms and condition as agreed between the bank and the IAH. The banks normally invest the amount received from the customer on account of equity if investment account holder in a portfolio of investments. The banks are required to maintain a cash reserve from this account with the CBB. The income allocated to the IAH is in accordance with the utilization of such deposits. The utilization rate is determined by the ALCO with the approval of the Shariah supervisory board. The URIAH accounts include different maturity range starting from 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 12 month and 36 month. The customer signs written contract covering all terms and conditions of the investment, including tenor, basis of profit allocation and early withdrawal. URIAH accounts are significant source of funds for Banks in Bahrain and account for approximately 50% of the total asset base. 15 Hence banks are very sensitive to maintain these deposits and regularly monitor rate of return offered by competitive banks to evaluate the expectation of its IAH. Profits from URIAH accounts are allocated between the bank and URIAH based on the contribution of each of the group. Operating expenses incurred by the banks are not charged to investment account. Banks in Bahrain recognize the concept of DCR and provide for the same. Though banks set aside PER and IRR, foregoing mudarib share is the preferred method for adjusting DCR. Also there is no upper limit on appropriation to PER and IRR accounts imposed by the central Bank. Banks in Bahrain typically invest URIA funds in short and medium term Murabaha, Sukuks and Ijarah Muntahia Bittamleek. Funds are normally invested after deductions of mandatory reserve and sufficient operational cash requirements. The rate of return payable to URIA holders is decided by ALCO, keeping in view the rate of return earned from the portfolio financed by URIA. The central bank of Bahrain recognizes the concept of DCR and requires banks to have a policy in place for the management of DCR. Also all Islamic banks are required to make detailed disclosures in their annual report on URIAH accounts. The disclosure requirements for Islamic Banks in Bahrain are detailed in Appendix A. 5.2 Measurement of DCR and alpha for banks in Bahrain As discussed earlier the central bank of Bahrain requires Islamic banks to make detailed disclosure regarding URIAH accounts in their annual reports. However while evaluating annual reports of banks in Bahrain we found that not all banks make disclosures as required by Central bank. Hence we have restricted our analysis to three Islamic banks in Bahrain For the sake of sensitivity of data we choose not to name the banks and refer to them as Bank A, B and C. 16
Data collected and calculations are shown in the tables below. Table 3a. Measurement of DCR and alpha for banks in Bahrain Name Year Average UPSIA (DI) Average Equity (K) DI+K Total end of period assets Gross return on UPSIA before funding cost Return on UPSIA % (RA) Bank A 2010 192439 123775 316214 419216 8254 4.29% 2009 184394 130530 314924 473604 11103 6.02% 2008 128814 136486 265300 464993 8953 6.95% 2007 38405 88782 127187 269511 3012 7.84% Bank B 2010 480308 357000 837308 1446700 19104 3.98% 2009 503207 350000 853207 1373400 25045 4.98% 2008 211917 256600 468517 1284700 10862 5.13% Bank C 2010 741382 128600 869982 935700 33083 4.46% 2009 680293 158300 838593 912000 35694 5.25% 2008 624119 176800 800919 874000 36934 5.92%
Table 3b. Measurement of DCR and alpha for banks in Bahrain Name Year PER Total PER as % of average UPSIA (RP) IRR Total IRR as a % of UPSIA (RIR) Mudaraba income Mudaraba income for distribution (RM) Benchmark rate Bank A 2010 0 0 0 0 8254 8254 3.41% 2009 560 0.30% 452 0.25% 11103 10543 3.65% 2008 443 0.34% 339 0.26% 8953 8510 3.78% 2007 146 0.38% 91 0.24% 3012 2866 3.91% Bank B 2010 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 19104 19104 3.41% 2009 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 25045 25045 3.65% 2008 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 10862 10862 3.78% Bank C 2010 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 33083 33083 3.41% 2009 0 0.00% 167 0.02% 35694 35694 3.65% 2008 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 36934 36934 3.78%
Table 3c. Measurement of DCR and alpha for banks in Bahrain Name Year Mudarib share in absolute amount % of Mudarib share (1- B) Implied share of IAH % of IAH implied share (B) Rate of return attributable to IAH (RI) Rate of return paid to IAH (Ri) Bank A 2010 2469 30% 5785 70% 3.01% 4.04% 2009 1772 17% 8771 83% 4.76% 4.58% 2008 1903 22% 6607 78% 5.13% 4.87% 2007 566 20% 2300 80% 5.99% 5.75% Bank B 2010 5300 28% 13804 72% 2.87% 2.87% 2009 4228 17% 20817 83% 4.14% 4.14% 2008 997 9% 9865 91% 4.66% 4.66% Bank C 2010 10467 32% 22616 68% 3.05% 2.39% 2009 11517 32% 24177 68% 3.55% 2.61% 2008 13183 36% 23751 64% 3.81% 2.81%
5.3 Measuring Rate of Return to Shareholders under Three Scenarios Scenario 1 The first scenario is the profit sharing investment account (PSIA) is treated as pure investment product. Therefore, rate of return to shareholders (R e0 ) is measured as follow: R e0 = R A S p
Scenario 2 The second scenario is the PSIA is treated as pure deposit-like product. Here, the R e1 is measured as follow: R e1 = (R A S P ) + DI/K. (R A S p R m ) Scenario 3 (R e2 ) The third scenario is the PSIA is treated as being in between pure investment and deposit-like products. We have calculated this by simulating returns obtained under scenario 1 and 2. 17
5. 4 Measuring Unexpected Losses under Three Scenarios After getting the results for the Re under these three scenarios, unexpected losses (UL) for each R e then need to be calculated, in order to determine the displaced commercial risk (DCR) and Alpha. The UL0 is standard deviation of Re0 while UL 1 and UL 2 are standard deviations of Re1 and Re2 respectively. The results are shown in the table below: Table 4. Unexpected losses (UL) under alternative scenarios Name Year Return to shareholders if UPSIA are treated like investment (Re0) Return to shareholder if UPSIA are treated like deposits (Re1) Simulated return to shareholders (Re2) Standard Deviation of Re0 Standard Deviation of Re1 Standard Deviation of Re2 Bank A 2010 2.25% 0.44% 1.31% 2.24% 3.90% 3.10% 2009 4.07% 4.66% 4.38% 2008 6.95% 9.94% 8.61% 2007 7.84% 9.54% 8.70% Bank B 2010 3.98% 4.74% 4.37% 0.51% 0.90% 0.69% 2009 4.98% 6.89% 5.95% 2008 5.13% 6.24% 5.66% Bank C 2010 4.46% 10.53% 7.50% 0.59% 1.20% 0.90% 2009 5.25% 12.11% 8.59% 2008 5.92% 13.46% 9.71%
5.5 The Determination of DCR and Alpha The DCR and Alpha can be determined based on the following formulas: DCR = UL 2 UL 0
Maximum DCR = UL 1 UL 0
Alpha = UL 2 UL 0 / UL 1 UL 0
The calculations are shown in the table below: Table 5. Calculated values of DCR and Alpha Name DCR Maximum DCR Alpha Bank A 0.86% 1.66% 52.05% Bank B 0.18% 0.39% 45.59% Bank C 0.31% 0.60% 50.85%
VI. Conclusion The paper attempts to understand DCR calculation and treatment of URIAH accounts in Bahrain. As illustrated in the paper the capital adequacy ratio of an Islamic bank is highly sensitive to the value of alpha. Also choosing the right value of alpha is very important to maintain the competitiveness of Islamic banks particularly in a dual banking environment. The estimation of alpha requires historical data which in turn requires banks to make periodic disclosures in their annual reports. Our study was constrained to a significant extent due to lack of disclosures in other GCC countries. Even in Bahrain where the disclosures are mandatory as per central banks guidelines we found that banks are not making the necessary disclosures regarding URIAH accounts. In the absence of historical data it is impossible to fit in a statistical/econometric model to calculate alpha as some researchers have developed. Also it is much more practical for banks to use the IFSB model which uses the basic accounting information and definitions. Hence the paper illustrates the calculation of DCR using the IFSB method. We find that using the methodology as described for the banks in Bahrain the alpha should be in the range of 50-60% which is significantly higher than the alpha required by the central bank of Bahrain. This also ties in with our survey of Islamic bankers who feel that URIAHs are more or less shariah compliant alternative of conventional deposit accounts and hence alpha should be much higher than the central bank requirement of 30%. As a concluding remark we would like to highlight the importance of public disclosures on part of Islamic Banks. The central banks need to be more aggressive in getting Islamic banks to make disclosures in their annual reports. Also the Islamic banks must realize that they need to produce the necessary data for their own purposes as part of their risk management procedures with respect to DCR and capital adequacy.
1 The Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) is an international standard-setting organisation that promotes and enhances the soundness and stability of the Islamic financial services industry by issuing global prudential standards and guiding principles for the industry, broadly defined to include banking, capital markets and insurance sectors. 2 AAOIFI standards, Appendix D: glossary.
7 IFSB guidance note in connection with the IFSB capital adequacy standard: the determination of alpha in the capital adequacy ratio for institutions offering only Islamic Financial services- March 2011
8 In order for the necessary data to be available, Islamic banks need to make the necessary disclosures. Public disclosure would, however, have the substantial-added advantage that information intermediaries such as rating agencies and research analysts would have ready access to it, thus contributing to market discipline. Moreover, retail-oriented disclosures of relevant data can help manage the risk-return expectations of IAH. Islamic banks
should of course produce the necessary data for their own purposes as part of their risk management procedures with respect to DCR and capital adequacy.
9 IFSB guidance note in connection with the IFSB capital adequacy standard: the determination of alpha in the capital adequacy ratio for institutions offering only Islamic Financial services- March 2011
10 IFSB. Guidance Note in Connection with the IFSB Capital Adequacy Standard: The Determination of Alpha in the Capital Adequacy Ratio for Institutions (Other than Insurance Institutions) Offering only Islamic Financial Services, March 2011, Available at: <URL: http://www.ifsb.org/standard/eng-GN-4%20Guidance%20Note.pdf>, Access Date: March 16, 2012.
11 IFSB conducted a survey on DCR in 2009 to evaluate the treatment of UPSIA and DCR in different countries. The survey showed that in many countries unrestricted PSIA are treated like semi-deposits owing to market considerations and/or regulatory requirements and DCR exists at different levels in all surveyed countries. The rationale for the treatment of PSIA varies from one country to another, in part due to the prevailing regulatory requirements in each country. While regulations in all countries tend to protect the principal capital of PSIA (not the returns), for market considerations IIFS are inclined to pay smoothed rates of return that are competitive with those paid by their peers and conventional counterparts. The survey results also revealed that IIFS determine rate of return to be paid to IAH based on two factors, actual rates of return and market benchmarks.
12 We conducted a survey on DCR and treatment of URIAH accounts in banks in Bahrain. The survey focused on areas like how banks decide on the adjustment factor (defined as w in IFSB model) while benchmarking their rates to the market rate. The decision on the w factor is essentially taken by the ALCO committee based on the liquidity requirement of the bank. Hence we feel that there cannot be a uniform w which can be applied to all banks. Also lack of prior time series data makes it difficult to put in a statistical model to calculate as recommended by the IFSB. 13 Data as per Bankscope
14 Data as per Bankscope
15 Based on data in annual report
16 For bank B and C data for 2007 is not available
17 For doing simulations we have used the Monte Carlo simulation method wherein a random value is selected for each of the tasks, based on the range of the estimates. Given that R e2 lies between R e0 and R e1 we have simulated the returns within this range. The simulations are done in excel and the average simulated return is taken as a proxy of R e2 .
Appendix A Central bank of Bahrain Disclosure requirements with respect to URIAH accounts
The central bank of Bahrain has a detailed disclosure requirement with respect to DCR and URIAH accounts . All banks in Bahrain are required to make the following disclosures with respect to DCR: 1. The bank's policy on DCR, including the framework for managing the expectations of its shareholders and unrestricted IAH, the sharing of risks among the various stakeholders, and the range and measures of risk facing unrestricted IAH based on the bank's general business strategies and investment policies.
2. The historical data over the past five years for the following: Total Mudaraba profits available for sharing between unrestricted IAH and shareholders as Mudarib (as a percentage of Mudaraba assets) Mudaraba profits earned for unrestricted IAH (as a percentage of assets) before any smoothing Mudaraba profits paid out to unrestricted IAH (as a percentage of assets) after any smoothing Balances of PER and IRR, and movement of these in determining unrestricted IAH payout Variations in Mudarib's agreed profit-sharing ratio from the contractually agreed ratio Market benchmark rates selected by the bank
3. Five year comparison of historical rate of return of unrestricted IAH in relation to the market benchmark rate selected by the bank
4. Five year comparison between the percentage rate of returns to IAH and the percentage returns to shareholders from Mudaraba profits
5. Amount and percentage of profits appropriated to PER and IRR
6. Analysis of the difference between aggregate Mudaraba-earned profit and profit distributed to IAH as a function of movement in PER, IRR and the Mudarib's share
7. Analysis of the proportion of the RWA funded by IAH that should be considered in arriving at the total RWA together with an explanation of the underlying rationale.
The following quantitative disclosures should be made when the concerned Islamic bank has unrestricted investment accounts: Amount of IAH funds The ratio of Profit Equalization Reserves (PER) to the total amount of PSIA by type of IAH The ratio of Investment Risk Reserves (IRR) to the total of PSIA by type of IAH ROAA and ROAE Ratio of profit distributed to PSIA by type of IAH. The bank must disclose the profit sharing formula used for the calculation and distribution of profits The management fee (Mudarib share) as a percentage of the total investment profit, and the extent to which it is subject to partial or total waiver in order to pay a competitive rate of return to IAH Ratio of financing to PSIA by type of IAH Percentage of financing for each type of Shariah-compliant contract to total financing Share of profits earned by IAH, before transfers to or from reserves (amount and as a percentage of funds invested) Share of profits paid out to IAH, after transfers to or from reserves (amount and as a percentage of funds invested); Share of profits paid out to the bank as Mudarib; Movement on PER and IRR during the year; The utilization and computation of PER and/or IRR during the period; Average declared rate of return or profit rate on PSIA by maturity (3-month, 6-month, 12-month, 36-month); Types of assets in which the funds are invested and the actual allocation among various types of assets; Changes in asset allocation in the last six months; Off-balance sheet exposures arising from investment decisions, such as commitment and contingencies; Limits imposed on the amount that can be invested in any one asset; The treatment of assets financed by IAH in the calculation of RWA for capital adequacy purposes; Profits earned and profits paid out over the past five years (amount and as a percentage of funds invested); and Amount of total administrative expenses charged to unrestricted IAH.
Figure 1: A Framework to compute Mudaraba income and returns to IAH
Source: Islamic Financial Services Board. Exposure Draft: Guidance Note in Connection with the IFSB Capital Adequacy Standard: The Determination of Alpha in the Capital Adequacy Ratio, November 2010, p. 16.
Other funds such as current accounts Funding Shareholders funds IAH Funds from PSIA Portion commingled with other funds Portion commingled with IAH funds Invested Portion Reserves Financing Other assets Pool of assets held by commingling IAH funds with shareholder funds Returns Earnings on other assets and reserves Unsmoothed profits on commingled funds Profits assigned to share holders PER Smoothed profits after subtracting PER. This is Mudarabah income Retain to IAH, based on a profit share applied to Mudarabah income the share of PER is held as equity of IAH and not distributed; and hence not included in IAH return Mudaribs share, 1 of Mudarabah income Returns to Shareholders Includes a share 1 of PER
Figure 2- Understanding the concept of DCR and alpha
BIBLIOGRAPHY Archer, Simon and Karim, Rifaat Ahmed Abdel (2006). "On Capital Structure, Risk Sharing And Capital Adequacy In Islamic Banks", International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 9(3), pp. 269-280.
Archer, Simon, et. al. (2010). "Supervisory, regulatory, and capital adequacy implications of profit-sharing investment accounts in Islamic finance", Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 1(1), pp.10-31. Boumediene, Aniss (2011). "Basel III: Relevance for Islamic Banks," SSRN, Available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1852205> , Access Date: April 23, 2012. Hutapea, Erwin and Kasri, Rahmatina (2010). "Bank Margin Determination: A Comparison Between Islamic and Conventional Banks in Indonesia," SSRN, Available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1685206> , Access Date: April 23, 2012. IFSB (2011). Guidance Note in Connection with the IFSB Capital Adequacy Standard: The Determination of Alpha in the Capital Adequacy Ratio for Institutions (Other than Insurance Institutions) Offering only Islamic Financial Services, March, Available at: <URL: http://www.ifsb.org/standard/eng-GN-4%20Guidance%20Note.pdf>, Access Date: March 16, 2012. IFSB. (2010). Exposure Draft: Guidance Note in Connection with the IFSB Capital Adequacy Standard: The Determination of Alpha in the Capital Adequacy Ratio, November, Available at: <http://www.ifsb.org/docs/IFSB-%20GN04%20Final%20Alpha%20_Nov%202010_.pdf>, Access Date: April 20, 2012. Kaouther, Toumi, Viviani, Jean-Laurent and Belkacem, Lotfi, (2010). A Value at Risk Based Model for the Measurement of Displaced Commercial Risk in Islamic Banks, Available at <http://ssrn.com/abstract=1867407>, Access Date: April 23, 2012. Kaouther, Toumi and Viviani, Jean Laurent (undated). "Islamic Banks Exposure to Displaced Commercial Risk: Identification and Measurement," undated, Available at: <URL: http://cermat.iae.univ- tours.fr/IMG/pdf/Islamic_banks_exposure_to_displaced_commercial_risk_Identification_and_M easurement.pdf>, Access Date: March 17, 2012. PricewaterhouseCoopers (2008). "Growing Pains: Managing Islamic Banking Risks," available at: <URL: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/financial-services/pdf/growing_pains.pdf>, Access Date: March 15, 2012.
Sundararajan, Vasudevan, and Errico, Luca (2002). Islamic Financial Institutions and Products in the Global Financial System: Key Issues in Risk Management and Challenges Ahead. IMF Working Paper No. 02/192 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Van Greuning, Hennie and Iqbal, Zamir (2008). Risk Analysis for Islamic Banks. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.
Foundational Theories and Techniques for Risk Management, A Guide for Professional Risk Managers in Financial Services - Part II - Financial Instruments