Monterrat Volcano Observatory Scientific Report

M o n L s e r r a L v o l c a n o C b s e r v a L o r y
age 1

MVC sc|ent|f|c report for vo|can|c act|v|ty between 1 November 2011 and 30 Apr|| 2012
Cpen I||e keport CIk 12-01

Ash venLlng occurrlng on 23 March 2012 from a new venL ln Lhe 11 lebruary 2010 collapse scar.
Ashfall can be seen occurrlng on Lhe wesLern flank (8lghL hand slde).

! #$%&' ( )*++' , #-./+0$1-&.' 2 345&.0' ! 67/0-' 8 60&9*.0' : 60/;0$;' 8 6<&.+' ! =/%%/*7+


age 2
Lxecut|ve Summary

1hls reporL summarlses Lhe volcanlc acLlvlLy aL Soufrlere Pllls MonLserraL for Lhe perlod 1 november
2011 Lo 30 Aprll 2012, lncludlng all monlLorlng and vlsual observaLlons.
AcLlvlLy durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod has generally been low. 1he excepLlon Lo Lhls has been Lhe evenLs of
Lhe 22 and 23 March 2012, whlch lnvolved shorL buL lnLense volcano LecLonlc earLhquake swarms, ash
venLlng and lncreased SC
2
emlsslons.
Seven selsmlcally deLecLable lahars have occurred ln Lhe 8elham valley reglon assoclaLed wlLh heavy
ralnfall durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod.
Cround deformaLlon recorded by Lhe CS neLwork conLlnues Lo show slow lnflaLlon slmllar Lo prevlous
pauses ln acLlvlLy.
1he SC
2
ouLpuL was lnlLlally below Lhe erupLlon average buL perlods of lncreased buL flucLuaLlng SC
2

have occurred: ln november 2011 and followlng Lhe 23 March evenL, when very hlgh values were
recorded. 1he 'pause' ln lava exLruslon whlch sLarLed on 11 lebruary 2010 conLlnues and ls LwenLy slx
monLhs long aL Lhe Llme of wrlLlng.


age 3
Contents
1. Vo|can|c Act|v|ty for the per|od 1 November 2011 to 30 Apr|| 2012
1.1 Narrat|ve .................................................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Se|sm|c Act|v|ty from 01 November 2011 to 30 Apr|| 2012 .......................................................... S
1.3 Ground Deformat|on ................................................................................................................ 14
1.4 Gas Mon|tor|ng ......................................................................................................................... 19
1.S Dome Vo|ume and Morpho|ogy ................................................................................................ 20
2. D|scuss|on of act|v|ty and compar|son w|th past act|v|ty ................................................................. 22
2.1 ause |n dome growth .............................................................................................................. 22
2.2 Dome Stab|||ty .......................................................................................................................... 23
2.3 Cr|ter|a for cont|nuat|on of act|v|ty ........................................................................................... 23
3. nazard and k|sk ................................................................................................................................. 24
4. MVC Mon|tor|ng Networks ................................................................................................................. 24
4.1 Se|sm|c Mon|tor|ng ................................................................................................................... 24
4.2 Ground Deformat|on Mon|tor|ng .............................................................................................. 26
4.3 Gas Mon|tor|ng ......................................................................................................................... 27
4.4 Dome Vo|ume .......................................................................................................................... 28
4.8 Su|phur D|ox|de (SC
2
) D|ffus|on 1ubes ...................................................................................... 30
4.6 Infrason|c mon|tor|ng ............................................................................................................... 32
S. MVC Cperat|ons ................................................................................................................................... 32
S.1 Staff|ng ..................................................................................................................................... 32
S.3 Lducat|on and Cutreach ........................................................................................................... 32
S.4 ne||copter ................................................................................................................................ 33
S.S Vo|unteers ................................................................................................................................ 33
S.6 Co||aborat|on ............................................................................................................................ 33
S.7 Lxterna| kesearch ro[ects w|th s|gn|f|cant MVC |nvo|vement .................................................. 34
S.8 WL8C8S ................................................................................................................................... 34
keferences ................................................................................................................................................. 34
A1.1 Introduct|on and Chrono|ogy .................................................................................................. 36
A1.2 Craters ................................................................................................................................... 37
A1.3 Se|sm|c|ty on 22 and 23 March 2012 ....................................................................................... 38
A.1.4 Stra|n .................................................................................................................................... 47
Append|x 2: Ioca| mechan|sms of V1 earthquakes on March 22-23 2012. ............................................. 30
A2.1 March 22 swarm .................................................................................................................... S0
A2.2 March 23 swarm .................................................................................................................... S3
Append|x 3: GS-Measured Deformat|on at SnV .................................................................................... 36
A3.1 GS post process|ng ............................................................................................................... S6
A3.2 1ecton|c |ate Mode| for Montserrat ...................................................................................... 60
A3.3 LDM Network ......................................................................................................................... 61


age 4
1. Vo|can|c Act|v|ty for the per|od 1 November 2011 to 30 Apr|| 2012
1.1 Narrat|ve

I|gure 1.1.1 Selsmlc, CS and SC
2
monlLorlng daLa for Lhe perlod 1 november 2011 - 30 Aprll 2012. 1op: number
of selsmlc evenLs deLecLed and ldenLlfled on selsmlc sysLem. Mlddle: CS measured radlal dlsplacemenL of cCS
sLaLlon MvC1 radlally away from Lhe SPv venL -llnearly deLrended. 8oLLom: Measured dally SC
2
flux.

AcLlvlLy has been low durlng mosL of Lhe reporLlng perlod, alLhough sporadlc relaLlvely small
degradaLlon pyroclasLlc flows (ls) and rockfalls (8ls) have occurred. 1he source of Lhese 8ls and ls
has been slmllar Lo Lhose LhaL occurred earller durlng Lhe pause, however Lhere has been some
lnsLablllLy and 8l acLlvlLy Lo Lhe SW above Clngoe's ChauL LhaL has prevlously been sLable. 1here have
been very few 8ls or ls from oLher areas of Lhe dome and one observed l ln Lhe Cages valley ln early
March 2012.

SelsmlclLy has generally been low wlLh only brlef bursLs of volcano LecLonlc (v1) earLhquake 'sLrlngs'
whlch have occurred a number of Llmes durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod. 1he evenLs of 22 and 23 March
2012 were Lhe only eplsode of slgnlflcanL acLlvlLy durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod (alLhough a v1 sLrlng ln
early uecember mlghL also have been slgnlflcanL). 1hese evenLs conslsLed of Lwo lnLense v1 swarms
lnvolvlng parLlcularly large v1 earLhquakes (up Lo M
L
3.9). lL ls also worLh noLlng LhaL Lhere was a sllghL


age 3
buL noLlceable lncrease ln 8l acLlvlLy whlch began a few weeks prlor Lo Lhe 22 March (for deLalls of Lhe
evenLs of 22-23 March see Appendlx A1).

I|gure 1.1.2 Selsmlcally deLecLed lahars ln Lhe 8elham valley reglon (red llnes) from 1 november 2011 Lo 1 May
2012. 8lue llnes are ralnfall (mm/hour) from Wlndy Plll Llpplng buckeL raln gauge. Creen llnes are SL Ceorges Plll
weaLher sLaLlon Llpplng buckeL raln gauge.
1here have been seven selsmlcally recorded lahars ln Lhe 8elham valley reglon durlng Lhe reporLlng
perlod (llgure 1.1.2). llve of Lhese evenLs occurred ln november and uecember assoclaLed wlLh Lhe end
of Lhe 2011 ralny season. All excepL one lahar occurred assoclaLed wlLh ralnfall above 10 mm /hour
(llgure 1.1.2). MvC currenLly has Lwo operaLlonal weaLher sLaLlons, one aL SL Ceorges and anoLher aL
Wlndy Plll.

1.2 Se|sm|c Act|v|ty from 01 November 2011 to 30 Apr|| 2012
1.2.1 Summary
1he level of selsmlc acLlvlLy recorded aL SPv durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod has been low ln Lhe conLexL of
Lhe whole erupLlon. llgure 1.2.1 shows Lhe dally counLs of Lhe dlfferenL earLhquake Lypes for Lhe perlod
1 november 2011 Lo 30 Aprll 2012 lncluslve, and shows LhaL Lhe paLLern of decllnlng numbers of rockfall
evenLs and sporadlc v1 earLhquakes has largely conLlnued LhroughouL Lhls pause (pause 3). Low-
frequency selsmlclLy, encompasslng long-perlod evenLs, hybrld evenLs and long-perlod rockfalls, has
been mosLly absenL. 1hls paLLern of selsmlclLy ls Lyplcal of a pause ln lava exLruslon and remalns
conslsLenL wlLh Lhe level of acLlvlLy seen ln prevlous pauses.


age 6
1he excepLlon Lo Lhls was Lhe eplsode on 22 and 23

March (Appendlx A1), when Lwo slgnlflcanL v1
swarms each of around 30 earLhquakes occurred. 1he second swarm was more energeLlc Lhan Lhe flrsL,
wlLh Lhe largesL evenL havlng a local magnlLude of M
L
3.9, one of Lhe largesL v1 earLhquakes Lo have
been recorded aL SPv. 1he mosL lnLense phase of Lhe swarm ended wlLh 3 large hybrld earLhquakes. A
very long-perlod selsmlc slgnal (below 0.1Pz) was also observed across Lhe MvC neLwork durlng Lhls
swarm, colncldenL wlLh a large ampllLude sLraln slgnal. 1hls selsmlclLy was followed by mlld ash venLlng
on Lhe mornlng of March 23.
1.2.2 Current |eve|s of se|sm|c|ty
1he LoLal counLs and mean dally evenL raLe for each evenL Lype are glven ln 1able 1.2.1. 1he counLs are
glven for boLh Lhe reporLlng perlod and for Lhe perlod slnce Lhe end of hase 3, from 12 lebruary 2010
onwards.
8ockfall acLlvlLy has been generally low, and has broadly conLlnued a decllnlng Lrend as Lhe dome
sLablllzes. Powever, a sllghL lncrease ln numbers from 1 March 2012 ls vlslble ln llgures 1.2.1 and 1.2.4,
alLhough Lhe low absoluLe numbers make lL dlfflculL Lo [udge lLs slgnlflcance.
Several more v1 sLrlngs occurred durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod (see SecLlon 1.2.3), and wlLh Lhe excepLlon
of Lhe March 22 and 23 eplsodes, Lhe raLe of v1 earLhquake occurrence has remalned roughly consLanL.
1he average dally raLe of v1s has been marglnally hlgher for Lhe lasL 6 monLhs Lhan for Lhe average
across Lhe whole of Lhe currenL pause, alLhough Lhls wlll be somewhaL skewed by Lhe large number of
evenLs durlng Lhe swarms of March 22 and 23. llgure 1.2.3 shows Lhe hypocenLres of all v1 earLhquakes
recorded by Lhe MvC neLwork LhaL were able Lo be locaLed. 1hese locaLlons are, as usual, sub[ecL Lo
large errors and neLwork blases, buL Lhe locaLlons are conslsLenL wlLh all recenL v1 selsmlclLy aL SPv,
locaLed wlLhln a relaLlvely small selsmogenlc volume beneaLh Lhe dome aL depLhs beLween 1 and 4 km.
1he lncrease ln SC
2
flux durlng early uecember 2011 appears Lo have colnclded wlLh several v1 sLrlngs
whlch occurred ln november and uecember 2011 (1able 1.2.3). 1here was also a clear SC
2
response Lo
Lhe March 22/23 eplsode wlLh one of Lhe hlghesL dally SC
2
fluxes recorded by Lhe uCAS neLwork of 4394
1 occurrlng on 26 March.
Low-frequency selsmlclLy has been low. Powever, Lhree large (approxlmaLely M
L
3.3) hybrld evenLs
occurred aL Lhe end of Lhe lnLense v1 swarm on March 23, and a furLher 7 hybrld and 3 L earLhquakes
were recorded durlng Lhe followlng 48 hours.
Comparlng Lhe currenL evenL raLes ln 1able 1.2.1 wlLh Lhe raLes calculaLed for prevlous pauses ln 1able
1.2.2, Lhe LoLal mean dally evenL raLe for Lhls pause remalns conslsLenL wlLh Lhe evenL raLes seen durlng
prevlous pauses.


age 7

Lvent 1ype
(a) ause S (s|nce 11-Ieb-2010) (b) 01-Nov 2011- 30-Apr-2012
1ota| Lvents]Day 1ota| Lvents]Day
L]kockfa|| 81 0.10 3 0.02
nybr|d 93 0.12 10 0.06
L 63 0.08 4 0.02
kockfa|| 1240 1.33 96 0.33
V1 721 0.89 244 1.33

1ota| 2198 2.72 337 1.97

1ab|e 1.2.1. 1oLal number of evenLs and mean dally evenL raLes for each earLhquake Lype durlng (a) Lhe whole
of currenL 'pause' and (b) Lhe perlod covered by Lhls reporL.

Lvent
1ype
ause 1 ause 2 ause 3 ause 4a ause 4b
1ota|
Lvents
]Day
1ota|
Lvents
]Day
1ota|
Lvents
]Day
1ota|
Lvents
]Day
1ota|
Lvents
]Day
LkIs 44 0.07 2 0.00 34 0.07 31 0.34 12 0.04
nybr|d 627 1.00 1696 2.72 393 0.82 78 1.37 2 0.01
L 273 0.44 143 0.23 1438 3.02 74 1.30 12 0.04
kI 6336 10.11 237 0.41 434 0.94 133 2.68 174 0.64
V1 3689 3.88 236 0.41 432 0.89 84 1.47 172 0.63

1ota| 10969 17.49 2339 3.78 2797 3.80 420 7.36 372 1.36

1ab|e 1.2.2. 1oLal number of evenLs and mean dally evenL raLes for each earLhquake Lype recorded aL SPv durlng
pauses ln lava exLruslon. 1he daLes of Lhe pauses are deflned as ause 1: 10-Mar-1998 Lo 27-nov-1999, ause 2:
01-Aug-2003 Lo 13-Apr-2003, ause 3: 04-Apr-2007 Lo 29-!ul-2008, ause 4a: 14-CcL-2008 Lo 10-uec 2008 and
ause 4b: 04-!an-2009 Lo 04-CcL 2009.


age 8

I|gure 1.2.1 ually counLs of Lhe dlfferenL earLhquake Lypes recorded by Lhe MvC neLwork beLween 01 november
2011 and 30 Aprll 2012. 1he LoLal counL of all evenL Lypes ls shown aL Lhe Lop, followed by lndlvldual counLs for
v1s, 8ockfalls, Pybrlds, L evenLs and L/8ockfalls.


age 9

I|gure 1.2.2 ually counLs of Lhe dlfferenL earLhquake Lypes recorded by Lhe MvC slnce Lhe end of hase 3, l.e.
from 12 lebruary 2010 unLll 30 Aprll 2012. 1he LoLal counL of all evenL Lypes ls shown aL Lhe Lop, followed by
lndlvldual counLs for v1 evenLs, 8ockfalls, Pybrlds, L evenLs and L/8ockfalls. v1 sLrlngs" are marked by Lhe red
sLars on Lhe v1 ploL.


age 10

I|gure 1.2.3 PypocenLres of locaLed v1 earLhquakes recorded on Lhe MvC selsmlc neLwork beLween 01 november
2011 and 30 Aprll 2012 (206 evenLs ln LoLal). noLe Lhls lncludes Lhe locaLable evenLs of Lhe 100 or so v1
earLhquakes whlch occurred across Lwo swarms on Lhe 22 and 23 March 2012. Lrror bars lndlcaLe Lhe error
esLlmaLes ln hypocenLral laLlLude, longlLude and depLh.


age 11

I|gure 1.2.4. ually counLs of rockfall evenLs slnce Lhe end of hase 3, l.e. from 12 lebruary 2010 unLll 30 Aprll
2012. 1he red llne represenLs a 60-day movlng average, and Lhe green a 60-day low-pass fllLer of Lhe dally evenL
counLs. 1he lasL 6 monLhs of acLlvlLy durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod ln general conLlnue Lo show a Lrend of slowly
decllnlng rockfall acLlvlLy LhaL was noLed ln Lhe prevlous Lwo reporLs, alLhough a sllghL lncrease can be seen from
around Lhe sLarL of March 2012.

I|gure 1.2.S. v1 earLhquakes and SC
2
flux slnce Lhe end of hase 3. 1op: dally counLs of v1 earLhquakes, wlLh v1
sLrlngs marked by red sLars. 1he red llne represenLs a 60-day medlan fllLer and Lhe green llne a 60-day low-pass
fllLer. noLe LhaL some values are cllpped Lo show Lhe Lrend. Mlddle: avallable MvC local magnlLudes for locaLed v1
earLhquakes. 8oLLom: ually SC
2
flux, wlLh 7-day medlan fllLer shown ln green. noLe Lhe cllpped value of 4394 1 on
26 March 2012, lndlcaLed by Lhe red sLar.


age 12
1.2.3 V1 Str|ngs
As dlscussed aL some lengLh ln prevlous reporLs, v1 sLrlngs, loosely deflned as shorL, lnLense swarms of
v1 earLhquakes, have become a feaLure of Lhls erupLlon slnce laLe 2007.
1able 1.2.3 llsLs 8 more sLrlngs LhaL occurred durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod, whlch ln general show a lower
number of earLhquakes per sLrlng compared Lo earller examples. lL should be noLed LhaL 1able 1.2.3 only
llsLs earLhquakes large enough Lo Lrlgger Lhe earLhworm evenL deLecLlon algorlLhm, and ln mosL cases
more, lower ampllLude evenLs were ldenLlfled from manual lnspecLlon of Lhe conLlnuous daLa.
1he swarms of v1 earLhquakes LhaL occurred on 22 and 23 March are llsLed ln Lhls Lable, buL are
dlscussed ln more deLall ln secLlon 1.2.4. Cf Lhe oLhers, shown ln llgure 1.2.6, Lhe sLrlng on 6 uecember
2011 was Lhe largesL ln Lerms of earLhquake numbers and magnlLudes, wlLh 10 Lrlggered evenLs
occurrlng ln only 3 mlnuLes, Lhe largesL wlLh a local magnlLude of M
L
3.2.
1he LoLal number of v1 sLrlngs ldenLlfled ls now 41 slnce november 2007, and, lf Lhe March 23 swarm ls
lncluded, 11 of Lhese have dlrecLly preceded surface acLlvlLy.

#
uaLe / 1lme
(u1C)
1rlggerlng
v1s
LocaLed
v1s
uuraLlon of SLrlng
(mlnuLes)
1 18-nov-2011 00:22 6 6 74
2 01-uec-2011 03:19 4 4 2
3 06-uec-2011 17:36 10 10 3
4 14-uec-2011 20:46 7 3 3
3 17-!an-2012 16:02 9 8 11
6 29-leb-2012 13:36 3 2 8
7 22-Mar-2012 20:04 49 40 47
8 23-Mar-2012 07:10 30 30 137

1ab|e 1.2.3 1able llsLlng Lhe v1 SLrlngs observed aL SPv beLween 01 november 2011 and 30 Aprll 2012. 1he Lable
llsLs Lhe daLe and onseL Llme of Lhe sLrlng, Lhe number of v1 evenLs LhaL Lrlggered Lhe earLhworm evenL deLecLlon
algorlLhm, Lhe number of evenLs LhaL were locaLed, and Lhe approxlmaLe duraLlon of Lhe sLrlng ln mlnuLes. 1he
swarms on 22 and 23 March are dlscussed ln more deLall ln Lhe nexL secLlon.


age 13

I|gure 1.2.6 SecLlons from hellcorder ploLs of sLaLlons M8l8 and M8L?, showlng Lhe flsL slx v1 sLrlngs llsLed ln
1able 1.2.3. 1he sLrlng on 6 uecember 2011 was Lhe largesL ln Lerms of earLhquake numbers and magnlLudes.
none of Lhese sLrlngs were followed by subsequenL Lremor slgnals or surface acLlvlLy. 1he swarms of v1
earLhquakes on 22 and 23 March are dlscussed ln more deLall ln Appendlx A1.

1.2.4 Low amp||tude V1 swarm act|v|ty on 30 March 2012
ApproxlmaLely one week afLer Lhe selsmlclLy on 22 and 23 March, from around 18:20 u1C on 30 March
Lhere was some low-level v1 acLlvlLy, wlLh 11 Lrlggered and many more smaller v1 earLhquakes,
occurrlng across Lwo perlods ln approxlmaLely 24 hours (see llgure 1.2.7). 1hls paLLern of low-level v1
selsmlclLy, susLalned over several hours, ls unllke Lhe characLerlsLlc shorLer bursLs of earLhquakes LhaL
we have become accusLomed Lo observlng wlLh v1 sLrlngs over recenL years. Powever, Lhe acLlvlLy dld
noL conLlnue beyond Lhls 24-hour perlod.
1he evenLs were mosLly small magnlLude, [usL vlslble on Lhe hellcorders, parLlcularly Lhe closer sLaLlons
M8l8 and M8LC. Cnly Lhe 11 largesL evenLs Lrlggered Lhe earLhworm evenL deLecLlon algorlLhm. 1hls


age 14
was parLly due Lo Lhe low ampllLude of Lhe evenLs, buL Llmlng errors of >1s aL M8l8 and M8L? also
conLrlbuLed, as Lhese sLaLlons would Lherefore noL have Lrlggered aL Lhe same Llme as Lhe oLhers (e.g.
M8LC).
1hls selsmlclLy also appears Lo have colnclded wlLh an lncrease ln sLraln, recorded by Lhe sLralnmeLer aL
1ranLs (see llgure A1.12).

I|gure 1.2.7. Pellcorder ploL from M8l8, showlng low-level v1 acLlvlLy ln Lwo perlods across 24 hours of daLa from
30-Mar-2012 13:13u1C.

1.3 Ground Deformat|on
Cround deformaLlon measuremenLs made durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod lndlcaLe a slgnal LhaL ls Lyplcal of
repose perlods, suggesLlng a general Lrend of ongolng 'lnflaLlon' of Lhe volcanlc edlflce. varlaLlons ln
lnflaLlon raLe have occurred over shorLer Llmescales (weeks-monLhs). near fleld deformaLlon
measuremenLs lndlcaLe a posslble change over recenL monLhs.

1.3.1 GS
MeasuremenLs from Lhe local conLlnuous CS (cCS) neLwork lndlcaLe ongolng long-Lerm lnflaLlon of
Lhe volcanlc edlflce LhaL has malnLalned a conslsLenL raLe over longer Llmescales (monLhs-years). llgure
1.3.1 shows radlal dlsplacemenLs of MonLserraL cCS sLaLlons slnce before hase 3 (SepLember 2009).
1he daLa show radlal moLlon away from Lhe volcano LhroughouL ause 3. A sLep offseL of ~1.6 cm
occurred aL PermlLage on 23 March 2012 (labelled). A slmllar slgnal may be evldenL aL WhlLe's ?ard and
lergus 8ldge - analysls ls ongolng. noLe LhaL Lhe sLep ln Llmeserles on 27 !anuary 2012 (labelled) ls an
arLefacL of neLwork sLablllsaLlon, due Lo problems aL one of Lhe reference sLaLlons (kCu8). More deLalls
are presenLed ln Lhe appendlces.


age 13

I|gure 1.3.1 CuLward radlal dlsplacemenLs of cCS sLaLlons from a flxed volcanlc venL locaLlon (coloured crosses)
and assoclaLed uncerLalnLles (grey bars). A background plaLe veloclLy of [L 1.06 , n 1.40] cm/yr was removed from
Lhe daLa, as descrlbed ln Lhe appendlces. PorlzonLal coloured llnes lndlcaLe a zero-veloclLy (mean) reference for
Lhe respecLlve sLaLlons. 1he hase 3 lava exLruslon perlod ls shaded plnk. A sLep offseL ln all Llmeserles on 27
Lh

!anuary 2012 ls a processlng arLefacL. ulsplacemenLs due Lo anLenna changes have been correcLed auLomaLlcally.

A low-pass fllLer was applled Lo Lhese daLa, allowlng observed dlsplacemenLs Lo be compared beLween
successlve pauses. llgure 1.3.2 shows Lhe radlal and verLlcal dlsplacemenLs measured aL 9 sLaLlons ln
auses 3 Lo 3. 1hese ploLs lndlcaLe LhaL Lhe naLure of currenL deformaLlon Lrends ls comparable Lo Lhe
prevlous Lwo pauses.

27 !an
23 Mar


age 16

I|gure 1.3.2 8adlal (lefL) and verLlcal (rlghL) componenLs of dlsplacemenL measured aL 9 cCS sLaLlons around
MonLserraL durlng auses 3 (black), 4b (red) and 3 (blue). Solld llnes lndlcaLe co-pause deformaLlon, dashed llnes
show deformaLlon durlng Lhe subsequenL exLruslon phase. A 60-day low-pass fllLer was applled Lo Lhe daLa.

llgure 1.3.3 shows horlzonLal veloclLy vecLors esLlmaLed from CS daLa durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod,
compared Lo Lhose of Lhe whole of durlng ause3. vecLors are broadly conslsLenL wlLh a Lrend of edlflce
lnflaLlon due Lo a pressure source beneaLh Lhe volcano, suggesLlng LhaL Lhe sysLem remalns acLlve and
conLlnues Lo yleld deformaLlon slgnals LhaL are slmllar Lo Lhose observed durlng prevlous pauses ln
exLruslon.


age 17

I|gure 1.3.3. PorlzonLal deformaLlon veloclLles measured aL cCS and eCS sLaLlons around MonLserraL durlng
ause 3 (12 leb 2010 Lo presenL, black) and for Lhe reporLlng perlod (11 nov 2011 Lo presenL, red). veloclLles are
calculaLed relaLlve Lo a reglonal LecLonlc plaLe model deflned uslng veloclLles from local and reference sLaLlons LhaL
provlde a sLaLlsLlcally conslsLenL plaLe roLaLlon pole/ veloclLy.
1.3.2 LDM
LuM measuremenLs provlde some of Lhe mosL near-fleld deformaLlon daLa. llgure 1.3.4 shows basellne
lengLh changes recorded over Lhe LuM neLwork. A neLwork map, showlng some of Lhe newer basellnes,
ls provlded ln Lhe appendlces Lo Lhls documenL. AL leasL Lwo of Lhe LuM basellnes (Lu88_LuW8 - on
Lhe souLhwesLern flank - and MvC2_Luul - on Lhe norLhern flank) show a slgnlflcanL Lrend change aL


age 18
around lebruary 2012. 8oLh Lhese llnes show shorLenlng by 2-4 cm durlng Lhls Llme. lL should be noLed
carefully LhaL Lhe boulder aL Luul, lnLo whlch Lhe reflecLor ls flxed, began Lo spllL open ln laLe 2011.
Powever, basellne daLa from Lu88_Luu8 (wesLern flank) may show a slmllar Lrend, Lhough Lhe
Llmeserles for Lhe new slLe ls very shorL. 1here ls no slgnlflcanL change on Lhe Lu!P-LuPL llne
(norLheasL), whlch has Lyplcally shorLened durlng exLruslon, buL Lhe oLher llnes were lnsLalled slnce
hase 3 so Lhere are no comparable daLa. 1he sudden shorLenlng of Lhree basellnes may be slgnlflcanL
and lndlcaLe a change ln Lhe dlsLrlbuLlon of deformaLlon, perhaps assoclaLed wlLh an acceleraLlon of
lnflaLlon over Lhe pasL ~2 monLhs. Such concluslons can only be drawn speculaLlvely from daLa recorded
on unknown basellnes, as Lhere may be a locallsed response Lo larger-scale changes ln deformaLlon.

I|gure 1.3.4 Changes ln Lhe lengLh of LuM-measured basellnes around SPv. MvC2: MvC llemmlngs, LuCM:
Lower Cages MounLaln summlL, Lu88: 8roderlck's uCAS slLe, LuW8: upper WhlLe 8lver/ SL aLrlck's, Luu8: upper
8roderlck's/ Sprlng's, Luul: upper larrell's plaln (boulder appears Lo be spllLLlng slnce nov 2011), Lu!P: !ack 8oy
Plll, LuPL: PermlLage cCS slLe.
1.3.3 Stra|n
SLraln measuremenLs have shown slgnlflcanL deformaLlon assoclaLed wlLh Lhe 23 March 2012 selsmlc/
venLlng evenL. 1hese daLa and dlscusslons are lncluded ln Appendlx A1.

-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
01/Aug/10 30/!an/11 31/!ul/11 29/!an/12 29/!ul/12
L
|
n
e

L
e
n
g
t
h

C
h
a
n
g
e

(
m
)

MvC2_LuCM Lu88_LuW8 Lu88_Luu8 MvC2_Luul Lu!P_LuPL


age 19
1.4 Gas Mon|tor|ng
1.4.1 SC
2
Lm|ss|ons
1hls reporL covers Lhe perlod from !anuary 2011 unLll 13 Aprll 2012, durlng whlch daLa was obLalned for
83 (388) of Lhe days. 1he dally average durlng Lhls perlod was 420 L/d, a sLrlklng feaLure of Lhe perlod
ls Lhe deparLure of Lhe SC2 fluxes from Lhe ~2.3 pulsaLory slgnal observed from 2002-2010. 1he dally
average from !anuary 2011-mld lebruary 2012 was 389 L/d, afLer whlch Lhe dally average was 720 L/d,
from Lhen unLll Lhe end of Lhe reporLlng perlod. 1here are pulses of elevaLed flux presenL ln Lhe slgnal
on Lhe order of monLhs, occurrlng ln March 2011 -!une 2011, AugusL 2011- CcLober 2011 and november
2011- !anuary 2012. 1he March 2011 -!une 2011 and november 2011- !anuary 2012 pulses , correlaLe
well wlLh v1 earLhquake acLlvlLy (llg 1.4.1). 1he lncreased dally average sLarLlng ln mld lebruary 2012,
was lnlLlally lndependenL of earLhquake acLlvlLy however Lhe lnLense selsmlc evenLs of March 22
nd
and
23
rd
correlaLed well wlLh a furLher lncrease ln Lhe SC2 emlsslon raLe. 1here was a Llme lag beLween Lhe
occurrence of Lhe earLhquakes and Lhe SC
2
whlch responded on Lhe 24
Lh
(2400 L/d). 1he dally flux value
of 4600 L/d on March 26
Lh
ls Lhe Lhlrd hlghesL value measured by Lhe specLromeLer neLwork slnce lLs
lnsLallaLlon ln 2002.

I|gure1.4.1 - ually SC2 flux varlaLlon from !an -2011 Llll presenL. 8ed llne ls 11 day fllLered daLa, green verLlcal llnes
represenL volcano-1ecLonlc earLhquake sLrlngs/swarms.
1he SC
2
emlsslon raLe wenL down on 27 March, and sLayed low (dally average 400 L/d) unlLll early Aprll.
1he SC
2
emlsslon raLe once agaln lncreased Llll mld Aprll (880 L/d), afLer whlch Lhe average dally
emlsslons were back aL 400 L/d Llll Lhe end of Lhe reporLlng perlod.


age 20

1.S Dome Vo|ume and Morpho|ogy
1.S.1 Dome Vo|ume
1here has been no exLruslon of lava slnce Lhe end of hase 3 on 11 lebruary 2010. 1herefore, Lhere has
been no lncrease ln Lhe dome volume. 1here has, however, been some mlnor l and 8l acLlvlLy LhaL has
conLlnued Lo remove very small amounLs of maLerlal from Lhe dome. uurlng Lhe currenL reporLlng
perlod, Lhere has been only one l whlch occurred on 9 March 2012. As wlLh prevlous ls durlng Lhls
currenL pause, lL has noL been posslble Lo make dlrecL measuremenLs of Lhe deposlL volume for Lhe
evenL due Lo lLs proxlmlLy Lo Lhe dome. Powever, uslng an emplrlcal relaLlonshlp beLween runouL and
flow volume (Calder eL al., 2002, Wadge eL al., 2010), Lhe small l on 9 March 2012 ls esLlmaLed Lo have
a volume of Lhe order of 10
4
m
3
. 1hus, Lhe volume of Lhe dome aL Lhe end of Lhe currenL reporLlng
perlod ls sLlll approxlmaLely 190 x 10
6
m
3
.

1.S.2 Dome Morpho|ogy
1he general morphology of Lhe dome remalns largely Lhe same as descrlbed ln MvC 8eporL Lo SAC 16
(MvC 2011). Mlnor changes have occurred durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod, relaLed Lo mass wasLlng
processes and Lhe ash venLlng ln March 2012 (Appendlx 1).
When observaLlons were posslble, lL was noLed LhaL mlnor rockfall acLlvlLy conLlnued Lo remove
maLerlal from Lhe sLeep faces ln Lhe norLhern (collapse scar), easLern, souLhwesLern and wesLern secLors
of Lhe dome.
uurlng an observaLlon fllghL on 17 lebruary 2012, a new Lhermal feaLure on Lhe easL slde of Lhe dome
was observed for Lhe flrsL Llme by MvC sLaff (llg. 1.3.1). 1he fumarole area ls locaLed aL Lhe base of Lhe
cllff ln Lhe 2006-7 dome, aL Lhe head of Lhe 1ar 8lver valley and appears Lo be slLuaLed ln a rubbly unlL of
lava (llg. 1.3.1). 1here ls an area of yellow and whlLe sulphur deposlLs on Lhe cllff above Lhe reglon
where Lhe warmesL LemperaLures have been ldenLlfled. 1hls area has been Lhe slLe of warm
LemperaLures (< 60 C) prlor Lo !anuary 2012, however, Lhe LemperaLures recorded on 17 lebruary were
conslderably hlgher, ranglng from ~90 C Lo a maxlmum of 273 C.


age 21

I|gure 1.S.1: vlsual and Lhermal l8 lmages of Lhe larger and warmer fumarole area locaLed aL Lhe base of Lhe cllff ln
Lhe 2006-07 dome aL Lhe head of Lhe 1ar 8lver valley. All lmages acqulred 17 lebruary 2012. 1he black box ln Lhe
upper panel shows Lhe approxlmaLe locaLlon of Lhe close up shoL of Lhe fumarole reglon ln Lhe lower rlghL panel.
1he small l LhaL occurred 9 March 2012 Lravelled approxlmaLely 1.3 km down Lhe wesL flank and lnLo
Lhe head of Sprlng ChauL. 1he source of Lhe flow, whlch appears Lo be ln Lhe same area on Lhe flank as
prevlous ls, close Lo Lhe summlL of Chance's eak appears Lo be marked by a small overhang. 1hls l
occurred 3 days afLer an unseen large 8l/small l orlglnaLed from Lhe same locaLlon, formlng a warm


age 22
spoL on Lhe flxed lLl8 camera aL MvC. 1he warmspoL was sLlll vlslble on 8 March and dld noL appear Lo
lncrease ln elLher LemperaLure or area followlng Lhe l on 9 March.
1he mosL slgnlflcanL changes Lo Lhe dome occurred assoclaLed wlLh Lhe ash venLlng on 23 March 2012,
whlch saw Lhe formaLlon of Lwo new venLs on Lhe norLhern and nW flanks of Lhe dome (for more deLalls
see Appendlx A1).
1.S.3 Dome |ncandescence and fumaro|e temperatures
lncandescence conLlnues Lo be observed on Lhe dome durlng excepLlonally clear nlghLs from Lhe varlous
feaLures descrlbed ln MvC Cpen llle 8eporL 11-02. 1he v1 swarms and ash venLlng ln laLe March 2012
do noL appear Lo have affecLed Lhe number or locaLlon of lncandescenL feaLures. 1he long-esLabllshed
gas venL locaLed ln Lhe floor of Lhe collapse scar conLlnues Lo record uncorrecLed LemperaLures > 200 C.
2. D|scuss|on of act|v|ty and compar|son w|th past act|v|ty
2.1 ause |n dome growth

I|gure 2.1.1 Selsmlc, CS and SC
2
monlLorlng daLa for Lhe perlod 1 !anuary 1993 - 30 Aprll 2012. LxLruslve phases
and pauses are ln shown red and green respecLlvely. 1op: number of selsmlc evenLs deLecLed and ldenLlfled on
selsmlc sysLem. Mlddle: CS daLa smooLhed wlLh 7day runnlng mean fllLer. red: 8adlal dlsplacemenL of sLaLlon


age 23
MvC1 (CAMl1 processlng), llnearly deLrended.. black: CS PelghL of PA88. 8oLLom: Measured SC
2
flux, fllLered
wlLh 7day runnlng medlan fllLer.

1he currenL pause ls now 27 monLhs long, easlly Lhe longesL pause ln Lhe erupLlon so far. Slmllar Lo Lhe
SAC 16 reporLlng perlod (1 March Lo 30 CcLober 2011) Lhls slx monLh perlod has been one of low acLlvlLy
and no vlslble exLruslon. uegradaLlon rockfalls and pyroclasLlc flows have been rare LhroughouL Lhe
perlod. Powever Lhe evenLs of 22-23 March demonsLraLe LhaL Lhe volcano has noL shuL down and
lnLerpreLaLlon of Lhe geophyslcal monlLorlng sysLem lndlcaLes LhaL Lhese evenLs were lnvolved wlLh
dynamlc processes occurrlng aL depLhs of aL leasL 6 km and LhaL surface acLlvlLy occurred assoclaLed
wlLh Lhls ln Lhe form of ash venLlng.

2.2 Dome Stab|||ty
1he lava dome aL Soufrlere Pllls conLlnues Lo exhlblL remarkable sLablllLy. 1here has been only one l ln
Lhe currenL reporLlng perlod, on 9 March 2012, from Lhe Cage's llank, and Lhe number of rockfall evenLs
has remalned low, averaglng less Lhan one evenL per day (see secLlon 1.2.1). 1he conLlnued decllne ln
rockfalls and ls probably reflecLs Lhe conLlnued coollng of Lhe dome lnLerlor leadlng Lo a more sLable
ouLer carapace.
1he selsmlc and ash venLlng acLlvlLy from 23 March has noL dlsLurbed Lhe overall lnLegrlLy of Lhe dome
wlLh no new fumaroles or fracLures formlng on Lhe dome (alLhough clear observaLlons have been rare).

2.3 Cr|ter|a for cont|nuat|on of act|v|ty
AL SAC 16 lL was agreed LhaL we would move away from Lhe noLlon of ldenLlfylng Lhe 'end of Lhe
erupLlon'. 8aLher we wlll now conslder Lhree esLabllshed crlLerla LhaL lndlcaLe Lhe poLenLlal for fuLure
acLlvlLy, Lhese are:
SelsmlclLy - low frequency selsmlc swarms and Lremors
Cas - dally SC
2
raLes above 30 Lonnes per day
Cround deformaLlon -slgnlflcanL ground deformaLlon

AlLhough low-frequency selsmlclLy has been low, some of Lhe largesL v1 earLhquakes Lo have been
recorded aL SPv occurred durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod. SC
2
levels are around 420 Lonnes per day (on
average slnce !anuary 2011) and have had perlodlc marked lncreases. lurLhermore Lhe cCS neLwork
conLlnues Lo show ongolng slow lnflaLlon whlch ls consldered slgnlflcanL. 1herefore Lhere ls abundanL
evldence LhaL Lhe volcano ls sLlll acLlve and llnked Lo Lhe deep plumblng sysLem.


age 24
3. nazard and k|sk
1he remalnlng lava dome ls sLlll of conslderable slze. 1hls was esLlmaLed aL 190Mm
3
aL Lhe sLarL of Lhe
pause ln lebruary 2010. Cnly a few percenL of Lhe dome has been removed by rockfalls and pyroclasLlc
flows slnce Lhen. As so llLLle maLerlal has been shed ln Lhe pasL 6 monLhs Lhe slLuaLlon wlLh Lhe sLablllLy
of Lhe dome and Lhe quanLlLy of maLerlal avallable ls near ldenLlcal Lo LhaL ln SAC 16. We conslder LhaL
llLLle has changed ln wlLh regards Lo Lhe Pazard and 8lsk assoclaLed posed by SPv slnce SAC 16.
4. MVC Mon|tor|ng Networks
4.1 Se|sm|c Mon|tor|ng
1he MvC selsmlc neLwork has performed adequaLely, alLhough monlLorlng capaclLy and daLa quallLy aL
some sLaLlons ln Lhe neLwork has been compromlsed by ongolng Llmlng lssues, and a lack of funcLlonlng
spare hardware- parLlcularly dlglLlsers and CS anLennas.
4.1.1 Instrumenta| changes at stat|ons
1able 4.1.1 below llsLs Lhe changes Lo lnsLrumenLs LhaL have Laken place aL lndlvldual selsmlc sLaLlons
durlng Lhe perlod covered by Lhls reporL, and speclflc lssues LhaL have been resolved.
SLaLlon uaLe ueLalls of changes
M88?
8roderlck's ?ard

13-!an-2012
SLaLlon offllne from 30-nov-2011 due Lo power cable
problem and waLer ln Lhe plL, followlng heavy ralnfall. 8e-
esLabllshed on 13-!an-2012 afLer a change of selsmomeLer,
dlglLlser and selsmomeLer cable. 136233 (CMC-3LSC)
replaclng 14343.
M8C8
Carlbaldl Plll

14-leb-2012
uue Lo Lhe consLrucLlon of Lhe new LlML bulldlng Lhls
sLaLlon has now moved from Lhe Lop of Carlbaldl Plll Lo a
pre-exlsLlng concreLe vaulL a few meLres SouLh down Lhe
slope. 1he slLe now operaLes wlLh lndependenL power and
ls LelemeLred dlrecL Lo MvC.
M8PA
Parrls

21-nov-2011
lnsLrumenL 14C67 was re-lnsLalled aL Parrls on 21-nov
2011, buL Lhe sLaLlon has slnce suffered from a Llmlng
problem, wlLh Lhe dlglLlser unable Lo geL a CS flx from
several dlfferenL anLennas.
M88v
8endezvous

11-Apr-2012
SLaLlon offllne as lnsLrumenL and dlglLlser were reLrleved
and broughL back Lo MvC for LesLlng.
M8WW vlslL and exLenslve malnLenance by !. neuberg and Leam
from unlverslLy of Leeds. A dlfferenL 120s CMC-31 (1333)


age 23
SLaLlon uaLe ueLalls of changes
WaLerworks 26-Mar-2012 lnsLrumenL has now been lnsLalled. A brand new 6 channel
dlglLlser and new CS anLenna were also lnsLalled.

4.1.2 Cngo|ng prob|ems and known |ssues
M8PA, M8LC and M88? aL Parrls, Long Cround and 8oches ?ard on Lhe LasLern slde of Lhe lsland have
had conLlnual LelemeLry problems wlLh regular dally daLa gaps. WheLher Lhls ls due Lo lnLerference
durlng radlo LelemeLry or ln Lhe neLwork paLh vla Sllver Plll ls sLlll unresolved.
Several sLaLlons have experlenced Llmlng problems, noLably M8lL, M8l8, M8C8, M8PA and M8L?. 1hls
ls seemlngly due Lo a comblnaLlon of faulLy CS anLennas and/or dlglLlsers.
Cn 9 lebruary 2012, Lhe clocks of dlglLlsers aL Lhree sLaLlons (M8lL, M8CP and M8L?) slmulLaneously
[umped by 1 second due Lo a leap-second bug relaLed Lo cerLaln 1rlmble-Lassen CS anLennas. 1hls lssue
was correcLed by manually applylng a paLch Lo Lhe affecLed dlglLlser's flrmware as advlsed by Curalp.
lor several weeks durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod Lhe sLaLlon aL M8L? appeared Lo show a sLep change ln
galn or senslLlvlLy on Lhe verLlcal componenL LhroughouL Lhe day. 1here were also some sLrange low-
ampllLude nolse/splkes LhaL were seen as regular llnes (allased) ln Lhe specLrograms. AfLer
correspondence wlLh Curalp, Lhls lssue remalns unresolved. We suspecL Lhe dlglLlser ls faulLy as lL
currenLly reporLs Lhe Llmlng aL Lhls sLaLlon ls Ck desplLe an obvlous offseL ln Lhe daLa.
no avallable slx-channel dlglLlsers has meanL daLa from Lhe lnfrasound sensor aL M8C8 ls currenLly noL
belng recorded.
4.1.3 Iuture deve|opments
4.1.3.1 Short term goa|s
12 new CS anLennas and cables have been ordered from Curalp. Also, 7 dlglLlsers have been senL back
Lo Curalp for repalr, and wlll be reLurned Lo MvC shorLly. 1hese, LogeLher wlLh Lhe new CS anLennas
should help, ln Lhe shorL-Lerm, Lo resolve Lhe perslsLenL Llmlng problems aL some sLaLlons and reduce
some of Lhe pressure on resources.
4.1.3.2 Longer term p|ans
ln Lhelr proposal Lo manage MvC, S8C and lC suggesLed LhaL Lhe selsmlc monlLorlng sysLem should be
revlewed before Lhe end of Lhe flrsL flve-year conLracL. 1he recommendaLlons from Lhls revlew wlll form
parL of Lhe proposal LhaL wlll be submlLLed for Lhe renewal of Lhe MvC managemenL conLracL. 1hls
reporL ls now almosL compleLe, and ls currenLly belng cosLed. rellmlnary proposals lnclude:
SLandardlslng equlpmenL and lnsLallaLlons


age 26
8eplaclng older equlpmenL
upgradlng verLlcal shorL-perlod sLaLlons Lo broadband
1wo new broadband sLaLlons aL SouLh Soufrlere (collocaLed wlLh cCS), and !ack 8oy Plll (re-
occupylng exlsLlng slLe)
Several poLenLlal new near-dome sLaLlons Lo help wlLh depLh consLralnLs and deLecLlon of
smaller magnlLude evenLs. CandldaLe slLes are PermlLage, Calways and Cages MounLaln.
lnLegraLlon of Lwo S8C-funded sLaLlons (aL slLes ln Sllver Pllls and 8edonda) and one more Leeds
sLaLlon (borehole sensor ln ClvesLon)
Mlnor revlslons and upgrades Lo sofLware

4.2 Ground Deformat|on Mon|tor|ng
4.2.1 cGS
upgrades and malnLenance of Lhe cCS neLwork ls ongolng. A new cCS slLe aL SL Ceorge's Plll (SCP1)
was acLlvaLed on 16
Lh
Aprll 2012. 1he rusLlng splke monumenL aL WhlLe's ?ard (W1?u) was replaced wlLh
a braced, relnforced cemenL monumenL ln March 2012. 1wo new nASA-funded sLaLlons were lnsLalled
aL 8oache's ?ard and norLhwesL 8luff (Sllver Pllls) ln Aprll 2012 wlLh help from unAvCC englneers. 1he
slLes are parL of a collaboraLlve venLure by C. MaLLloll wlLh MvC. Cne furLher MvC slLe lnsLallaLlon aL
8edonda ls scheduled for laLe May 2012. MvC wlll be asslsLed by unAvCC Lo lnsLall a CC8S-sLandard
slLe and daLa wlll be pooled publlcly lnLo Lhe (unAvCC) CCCCneL pro[ecL.
1elemeLred access Lo MvC cCS sLaLlons has remalned good LhroughouL mosL of Lhe reporLlng perlod.
1he conLlnuous Llnk Lo S8l (Sprlng LsLaLe) has been resLored. uaLa from four cCS sLaLlons operaLed by
Lhe CALlSC pro[ecL are avallable publlcly and used by MvC ln rouLlne processlng. numerous reglonal
reference sLaLlons are used ln sLablllsaLlon of CS processlng resulLs. 1here has been slgnlflcanL loss and
degradaLlon of daLa from Lhe kCu8 (kourou) reference sLaLlon, whlch ls lmporLanL ln local daLa
sLablllsaLlon. lL remalns unclear wheLher and when Lhls wlll be flxed.
lollowlng a llghLnlng sLrlke, Lhe whole Alr SLudlos (CALlSC) slLe, lncludlng Al8S cCS, was offllne. An
lnLerlm recelver seLup was lnsLalled on 30 March 2012 and collecLed daLa unLll Lhe slLe was overhauled
ln Aprll 2012. Corroslon of Lhe anLenna cable aL Sprlng LsLaLe (S8l) cCS caused loss of daLa beLween
22 leb and 3 May 2012.

4.2.2 eGS
A neLwork of eleven benchmark surveylng plns are occupled eplsodlcally (for abouL a week every ~2
monLhs), Lo exLend MvC's deformaLlon surveylng coverage. upgrades Lo some of Lhese slLes ls ongolng,
lnsLallaLlon of a shorL, Lhreaded rod anLenna mounLs aL selecLed slLes wlll lmprove lnsLallaLlon accuracy
and speed up deploymenL Llme.
4.2.3 GS Arch|v|ng & rocess|ng


age 27
SlgnlflcanL efforL has been made Lo re-converL and organlse archlve CS daLa (pre-2004). An absence of
deLalled records and meLadaLa logs has been a ma[or obsLacle buL Lhe archlve ls approachlng a sLage aL
whlch Lhe daLa can be processed. upgrades Lo Lhe currenL acqulslLlon and archlvlng rouLlnes aL MvC are
also ln progress ln order Lo accommodaLe raw CS daLa formaLs from newer recelver models ln use.
rocesslng of raw CS daLa ls carrled ouL uslng Lhe Ml1 CAMl1/CLC8k sofLware sulLe. A new sulLe of
auLomaLed MA1LA8 scrlpLs now read CAMl1/CLC8k ouLpuL, apply correcLlon and quallLy conLrol
algorlLhms and roLaLes each sLaLlon's Llmeserles daLa lnLo a radlal, LangenLlal and verLlcal local
coordlnaLe frame. A serles of ploLs, such as Lhose lncluded ln Lhls reporL, are Lhen auLomaLlcally
generaLed each day from Lhe up-Lo-daLe CS daLa. 1hls ouLpuL wlll shorLly be synchronlsed wlLh
WL8C8S.
4.2.4 LDM
8ouLlne LuM surveylng ls ongolng and lncorporaLes a number of slngle basellnes (see map ln
appendlces). Cne new reflecLor was lnsLalled aL upper 8roderlck's (Luu8) Lo provlde a radlal basellne on
Lhe wesL-souLhwesL flank. 1hls slLe ls measured from 8roderlck's uCAS (Lu88) and wlll also be
measurable from Lhe new cCS slLe aL SL Ceorge's Plll.
4.2.S 1||t
MvC has Lwo plaLform LllLmeLers awalLlng lnsLallaLlon when dlglLlser(s) become avallable. 1he prlorlLy of
Lhls work remalns low due Lo Lhe conslderable rlsk LhaL Lhe lnsLrumenLs are noL sufflclenLly senslLlve Lo
measure volcanlc slgnals from Lhe slLes LhaL Lhey could be deployed aL (wlLhouL Lhe expense of large-
scale slLe consLrucLlon). 8orehole LllLmeLer lnsLrumenLs would be more approprlaLe for lnsLallaLlon on
MonLserraL and Lhe poLenLlal for such a pro[ecL conLlnues Lo be explored. 1he largesL obsLacle Lo
overcome ls acqulrlng approprlaLe drllllng equlpmenL Lo make a deep enough borehole.
4.2.6 Stra|n
SLraln daLa are measured aL Lhe CALlSC sLaLlons and daLa are Lransferred Lo MvC. Alr SLudlos was
offllne for mosL of Lhe reporLlng perlod as lL awalLed repalrs. 1he Leam from ClW vlslLed MonLserraL ln
Aprll 2012 and overhauled Lhe sLralnmeLer acqulslLlon sysLem. 1he updaLed acqulslLlon sysLem aL MvC
synchronlses Lhe sLraln daLa archlve wlLh Lhe maln unAvCC reposlLory.

4.3 Gas Mon|tor|ng
4.3.1 UV network upgrade
1he four new specLromeLers LhaL form parL of Lhe neLwork upgrade are belng LesLed aL MvC Lo assess
Lhe sLablllLy of Lhe operaLlonal and reLrleval sofLware. 1o daLe Lhe longesL duraLlon of conLlnuous
operaLlon wlLhouL crashlng has been nlne days. uurlng Lhe LesLlng Lhe lnsLrumenLs are belng conLrolled
remoLely Lhus Lhe LelemeLry llnk ls also belng LesLed and has worked well LhroughouL Lhe LesLlng perlod.
When Lhe robusLness of Lhe sofLware and LelemeLry has meL saLlsfacLory sLandards (approxlmaLely


age 28
anoLher monLh), Lhe nexL sLep wlll be Lo lnsLall Lhe specLromeLers aL Lhe 4 chosen slLes. AL around Lhls
Llme LhaL Lhe flnal vlslL from vlLchko 1sanev ls expecLed where Lhe processlng of Lhe acqulred daLa wlll
be addressed. 1raverses (from Lhe hellcopLer and boaL) uslng new specLromeLers have been performed
on an ad-hoc basls slnce !une 2011, Lraverses have been used Lo LesL Lhe lnLegrlLy of Lhe daLa obLalned
from scanner neLworks (e.g. Salerno eL al., 2009). 1here are Lwo lmporLanL observaLlons from Lhe
comparlson, flrsL ls LhaL Lhe values obLalned from Lhe Lraverses are conslsLenLly hlgher LhaL Lhe values
obLalned from Lhe neLwork (llgure 4.3.1), Lhe second ls a slmllar Lrend on boLh daLaseLs from uecember
2011 Llll presenL.
Date
Jun-2011 Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Mar-2012
S
O
2

t
/
d
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Network
Boat Trav
Heli Trav

I|gure 4.3.1- Comparlson of dally flux values obLalned from Lraverses wlLh Lhe new uS82000+ specLromeLers and
Lhe S2000 neLwork specLromeLers.

4.4 Dome Vo|ume
no changes Lo MvC's capablllLles for measurlng uome volume have occurred ln Lhe reporLlng perlod.
1he Av1lS3 lnsLrumenL and sLereo phoLogrammeLry remaln Lhe meLhods for daLa acqulslLlon.
1he Av1lS3 lnsLrumenL, whlch had been ouL of commlsslon slnce laLe SepLember 2011 due Lo a problem
wlLh Lhe compuLer and glmbal (see MvC reporL Lo SAC 16, MvC 2011), has been repalred and ls
currenLly walLlng Lo be redeployed Lo Wlndy Plll.


age 29
4.S kemote Cameras
CurrenLly, MvC has Lwo remoLe cameras ln operaLlon aL Parrls LookouL and Carlbaldl Plll. 8oLh cameras
have experlenced shorL-Lerm ouLages due Lo varlous power and flrmware lssues LhaL were resolved
qulckly. ParborLronlcs, manufacLurers of Lhe Llme-lapse klL ln operaLlon aL Parrls LookouL, released a
flrmware upgrade for Lhelr dlglsnap conLroller Lo flx lssues relaLlng Lo random freezes. 1hls upgrade was
lnsLalled ln laLe Aprll 2012. 1here are plans Lo acqulre one addlLlonal SLaruoL l camera for lnsLallaLlon aL
a slLe, mosL llkely Parrls, on Lhe nL slde of Lhe volcano for observlng changes ln Lhe scar. 1he camera
damaged by llghLnlng ln SepLember 2011, ls on lLs way back Lo Lhe manufacLurer Lo see lf lL can be
repalred.
A new SLaruoL l camera has been lnsLalled ln Lhe 8elahm valley, [usL easL of Cork Plll. 1hls camera,
provlded by Mel lroude and !ennl 8arclay of uLA, ls LelemeLered back Lo MvC and ls for monlLorlng
lahars. lmages from Lhe camera are avallable Lhrough Webobs.

4.6 1herma| Cameras
1he flxed lLl8 (lorward Looklng lnfrared) Lhermal camera mounLed on Lhe roof of Lhe MvC has
conLlnued Lo be an lmporLanL parL of monlLorlng acLlvlLles. no problems have been encounLered durlng
Lhe currenL reporLlng perlod. 1he handheld camera conLlnues Lo be used on observaLlon fllghLs and from
varlous vanLage polnLs around Lhe volcano whenever weaLher permlLs clear observaLlons of Lhe dome.
AlLhough useful, Lhe camera ls raLher old and somewhaL llmlLed ln Lerms of lLs speclflcaLlon. 1he exlsLlng
baLLerles have reached Lhe end of Lhelr llfe and replacemenLs have been ordered. ln addlLlon, a range of
opLlons for purchaslng a new, much more sophlsLlcaLed handheld Lhermal lmager are belng
lnvesLlgaLed.

4.7 kemote Sens|ng Data
AcqulslLlon of 1erraSA8-x radar lmagery conLlnues on a monLhly schedule. ConLlnued confllcLs wlLh Lhe
1anuLM-x saLelllLe acqulslLlons mean LhaL only lmagery from Lhe ascendlng orblL, from whlch Lhe besL
vlew of Lhe wesLern flanks of Lhe volcano ls galned, ls conslsLenLly acqulred. no lmagery has yeL been
acqulred from Lhe descendlng orblLs LhaL lmage Lhe easLern flanks of Lhe volcano. A soluLlon Lo Lhls ls
sLlll belng lnvesLlgaLed.


age 30
4.8 Su|phur D|ox|de (SC
2
) D|ffus|on 1ubes
Cround level SC
2
concenLraLlons are measured uslng dlffuslon Lubes (passlve samplers) aL Len locaLlons
on MonLserraL, Lhe Lubes are supplled by Cradko LnvlronmenLal who are accredlLed by Lhe unlLed
klngdom AccredlLaLlon Servlce (ukAS).
Alr quallLy guldellnes are formulaLed Lo assess Lhe healLh lmpacLs assoclaLed wlLh SC
2
concenLraLlons
and recommendaLlons vary dependlng on Lhe counLry. SC
2
guldellnes Lend Lo be for shorLer averaglng
perlods (10 mlnuLes Lo 24-hours) and Lherefore cannoL be used when looklng aL Lhe monlLored SC
2

dlffuslon Lube concenLraLlons on MonLserraL. 1he unlLed SLaLes naLlonal AmblenL Alr CuallLy SLandards
lnclude an annual llmlL of 30ppb whlch could be used when looklng aL Lhe annual mean monlLored
concenLraLlons.
ConcenLraLlons were averaged on a monLhly basls, uslng Lhree (3) Lubes as of !uly 2010, and Lwo(2)
Lubes prlor Lo LhaL Llme. 1he Chances eak slLe was added ln november 2011.
1he average concenLraLlon of Lhe dlffuslon Lubes aL each locaLlon slnce Lhe beglnnlng of ause 3 Lo Lhe
end of lebruary 2012 are shown ln llgure 4.8.1.

I|gure 4.8.1 MonlLored SC
2
concenLraLlons (ppb) leb 2010 Lo lebruary 2012.
llgure 4.8.1 shows average concenLraLlons durlng Lhls perlod have remalned relaLlvely sLable, excepL for
LhaL of Chances eak, whlch ls ln very close proxlmlLy and downwlnd of Lhe volcano. 1he readlngs for
0
30
100
130
200
230
300
330
S
C
2

C
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
n
o
n

(
p
p
b
)

o||ce nead uarters, |ymouth k|chmond n||| Sugar M||| St. Georges n|||
Weekes Vue o|nte note| St.Augusnnes r|mary Schoo|
St. Iohns (DMCA) Iack 8oy n||| 8roder|cks (DCAS S|te)
Sa|em C||n|c 8rades r|mary Schoo| Chances eak


age 31
Chances eak were dlluLed by flve (3) Lo read wlLhln Lhe meLhod of Lhe callbraLlon range. 1he low level
readlngs, corresponds wlLh Lhe low level of volcanlc acLlvlLy durlng Lhls monlLorlng perlod. Powever,
resulLs correspondlng Lo Lhe v1 acLlvlLy ln March were noL recelved up Lo Lhe reporLlng perlod. 1here
have been several peaks ln daLa aL boLh Lhe lymouLh (.P.C.) and 8roderlcks (uCAS) monlLorlng slLes.
As expecLed, monlLored concenLraLlons are hlgher aL Lhose locaLlons closer Lo Lhe volcano and
downwlnd of Lhe plume (lymouLh (.P.C.), Chances eak and 8roderlcks).
1he annual mean concenLraLlons of Lubes aL some locaLlons, ls shown ln llgure 4.8.2. 1he resulL shown
for 2012 ls from Lhree readlngs collecLed Lhus far.

I|g 4.8.2. A comparlson of concenLraLlon of Lubes Lo LhaL of 1he unlLed SLaLes naLlonal AmblenL Alr CuallLy
SLandards whlch has an annual llmlL of 30ppb. Slnce 2009, only Lhe expecLed slLes closesL Lo Lhe volcano were
showlng readlngs of above 30ppb. SlLes furLher away ln lnhablLed areas are noL shown, buL remaln way below Lhe
30ppb llmlL.

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
lymouLh
8lchmond Plll
SL Ceorges Plll
Weekes
vue olnLe
30ppb
8roderlcks


age 32
4.6 Infrason|c mon|tor|ng
1he lnfrasound array aL MvC, operaLed by 1he unlverslLy of llorence, has been lnoperaLlve durlng Lhls
reporLlng perlod. 1hls ls due Lo hardware damage caused by Lhe 17 SepLember 2011 llghLnlng sLrlke, and
Lhe lnsLallaLlon ls currenLly awalLlng replacemenL parLs for repalr.
uurlng malnLenance of Lhe M8WW (WaLerworks) selsmlc sLaLlon ln March by a Leam from Lhe
unlverslLy of Leeds, Lhe Lhree lnfrasound sensors aL Lhls slLe were found Lo be damaged. 1hese have
been removed and are yeL Lo be replaced.
1he Lwo lnfrasound sensors operaLed by MvC aL selsmlc sLaLlons M8lL (llemmlngs) and M8CP (SL.
Ceorge's Plll) have conLlnued Lo funcLlon durlng Lhls reporLlng perlod. Powever, daLa from Lhe
lnfrasound sensor aL M8C8 (Carlbaldl Plll) has noL been recorded slnce Aprll 11 due Lo a lack of avallable
6-channel dlglLlsers.
S. MVC Cperat|ons
S.1 Staff|ng
1here have been no sLafflng changes aL MvC durlng Lhe reporLlng perlod. Powever ur Penry CdberL wlll
be leavlng hls poslLlon as of 18 May 2012. A replacemenL for hlm ls belng soughL. lnLervlews wlll be held
before Lhe end of May 2012. ln Lhe meanLlme cover for ground deformaLlon wlll be provlded by S8C
sLaff.

S.2 Loca| Staff|ng kev|ew
A revlew of Local SLaff compensaLlon packages lncludlng new [ob descrlpLlons, Lerms and condlLlons and
lnLroduclng performance relaLed pay for all local MvC sLaff was flnally underLaken by Ms Sarah
Polloway ln lebruary and March 2012.

S.3 Lducat|on and Cutreach
ln november2011, MvC organlsed a poeLry compeLlLlon Lhemed volcano ln my 8ackyard" for
MonLserraL schoolchlldren.140 sLudenLs parLlclpaLed and Lhe wlnners presenLed Lhelr poems aL Lhe
'Alllouagana lesLlval of Lhe Word' ln november 2011.oeLry enLrles are on dlsplay on MvC's webslLe
and MonLserraL ubllc Llbrary.

MvC's monLhly radlo programme volcano vlbes" debuLed ln laLe lebruary and has alred regularly
slnce. 1he programmes are posLed as podcasLs on MvC's webslLe and ln l1unes.
MonLserraL Sclence Week was held ln laLe !anuary. 1he evenL was organlzed ln collaboraLlon wlLh oLher
groups on lsland and lncluded acLlvlLles LhaL feaLured Soufrlere Pllls volcano, 8eefs, Sea LurLles, Lhe
endangered MounLaln Chlcken, and Lhe MonLserraL Crlole AcLlvlLles lncluded Lhree publlc presenLaLlons
(LhaL were well aLLended), MvC Cpen uay, an lnformaLlonal dlsplay aL Lhe MonLserraL ubllc Llbrary, a
gulded foresL hlke, a gulded boaL Lour from LlLLle 8ay Lo lymouLh led by ur. aul Cole, a Chlldren's lun


age 33
uay, and a Chlldren's Scavenger PunL. 1he MvC's Cpen uay lncluded a Lour of Lhe CperaLlons 8oom
wlLh lnLeracLlve selsmlc acLlvlLles, hands-on demonsLraLlons of deformaLlon monlLorlng, gas monlLorlng,
and safeLy equlpmenL, and vlewlng of volcanlc rocks and arLefacLs.88 sLudenLs parLlclpaLed ln Lhe
Chlldren's Scavenger PunL and Lhe wlnners recelved a hellcopLer rlde Lo vlew Lhe volcano and 1ranLs.
ln addlLlon Lo regularly posLlng news arLlcles, Lhe webslLe has been updaLed wlLh such Lhlngs as an Ask-
a-CuesLlon" buLLon, whlch ls used by people from boLh MonLserraL and abroad. Cn requesL from
schools, classroom vlslLs and school fleld Lrlps, ranglng from nursery chlldren Lo secondary
schoolchlldren, Lo MvC have been conducLed.

S.4 ne||copter
1he conLracL beLween MvC and Carlbbean PellcopLers has been renewed for anoLher year unLll 31
March 2013. 1hls conLlnues Lo be an excellenL worklng relaLlonshlp, alLhough a fuel source on
MonLserraL ls sLlll Lo be esLabllshed. 1he currenL conLracL lncludes a mlnlmum of 2 hours per week
LhroughouL Lhe year.
S.S Vo|unteers
1he volunLeer program remalns popular wlLh Lhree dlfferenL volunLeers belng aL MvC over Lhe
reporLlng perlod. 1he volunLeers, who have worked on a varleLy of pro[ecLs have lncluded:

vlcLorla Sword-uanlels November 2012

Seb Mueller unlverslLy of LancasLer, uk, March-Apr|| 2012. phoLogrammeLry Lools for exLracLlng dlglLal
Lerraln models of Lhe dome from obllque aerlal phoLographs.

1om Sheldrake 8rlsLol unlverslLy March Apr|| 2012

S.6 Co||aborat|on
Selwyn Sacks and oLhers from Carnegle lnsLlLuLe of WashlngLon uC, uSA vlslLed for CALlSC slLe
malnLenance ln Apr|| 2012.

UNAVCC Lechnlclans lnsLalled 2 new cCS sLaLlons ln Apr|| 2012. 1hese are collaboraLlve wlLh Clen
MaLLloll aL unlverslLy of 1exas.

uav Maclarlane, (unlverslLy of SL Andrews, uk) Av1lS malnLenance /LroubleshooLlng Apr|| 2012

!urgen neuberg and a Leam from Lhe unlverslLy of Leeds vlslLed for malnLenance of Lhe M8WW selsmlc
sLaLlon ln March 2012. 1hey were accompanled by ?an Lavallee, 8eLLlna Scheu and oLhers from LMu
Munlch, Lo gaLher fleld samples for Lhelr research.


age 34
ln Iebruary 2012, Penry CdberL vlslLed 8enolL 1alsne and SLeve 1alL aL lC Lo sLarL a pro[ecL
lnvesLlgaLlng a new approach Lo deformaLlon modelllng, accounLlng for surface loadlng, source
deformaLlon, magma decompresslon and more reallsLlc source geomeLry.
ln Ianuary 2012 Penry CdberL organlsed a CAMl1/CLC8k workshop aL wlLh 13 overseas parLlclpanLs.
vlLchko 1sanev / 8rlan !ones (Cambrldge unlverslLy, uk) - uCAS upgrade December and Ianuary 2012

S.7 Lxterna| kesearch ro[ects w|th s|gn|f|cant MVC |nvo|vement
ln March and Aprll 2012 ur Adam SLlnLon was lnvolved ln ICD Lxped|t|on 340: 'Lesser Ant|||es
Vo|can|sm and Lands||des' as member of Lhe sclenLlflc sLaff. 1he expedlLlon drllled and recovered
sedlmenL cores Lhrough volcanlclasLlc and marlne deposlLs ad[acenL Lo Lhe lslands of MonLserraL and
MarLlnlque. 1he expedlLlon proved Lo be very successful and collaboraLlon wlll conLlnue wlLh
researchers from Lhe unlverslLy of SouLhampLon (uk), 1uffs unlverslLy and Cregon SLaLe unlverslLy
(uSA) on Lhe Lephrochronology of a slLe SW of MonLserraL.

S.8 WL8C8S
uevelopmenL of WL8C8S aL MvC, Lo lncorporaLe more sophlsLlcaLed handllng and access Lo daLaseLs
and auLomaLed ploLLlng Lools, ls ongolng. lnfrasLrucLure for equlpmenL managemenL has been
lncorporaLed and slmple lssue-Lracklng modules ln WL8C8S have been developed buL noL yeL
compleLed. 1he use of WL8C8S for Lracklng lmporLanL changes ln monlLorlng neLworks/ equlpmenL
upgrades and repalrs provldes a relaLlvely easy means of prevenLlng loss of lnformaLlon, as has
happened prevlously.

keferences
Pardebeck, !eanne L. and eLer M. Shearer, 2002. A new meLhod for deLermlnlng flrsL-moLlon focal
mechanlsms, 8ulleLln of Lhe Selsmologlcal SocleLy of Amerlca, 92,2264-2276.
Pardebeck, !eanne L. and eLer M. Shearer, 2003. uslng S/ AmpllLude 8aLlos Lo ConsLraln Lhe local
Mechanlsms of Small LarLhquakes. 8ulleLln of Lhe Selsmologlcal SocleLy of Amerlca, 93, 2434-2444.
8easenberg, . and Cppenhelmer, u., 1983. lpflL, fpploL, and fppage: lorLran compuLer programs for
calculaLlng and dlsplaylng earLhquake faulL plane soluLlons. 1echnlcal reporL, u.S. Ceol. Survey.
8oman, u., neuberg, !., & LuckeLL, 8., 2006. Assesslng Lhe llkellhood of volcanlc erupLlon Lhrough
analysls of volcanoLecLonlc earLhquake faulL-plane soluLlons, LarLh laneL. Scl. LeLL., 248, 244-232.
Salerno, C. C., 8urLon, M. 8., Cppenhelmer, C., CalLablano, 1., 8andazzo, u., 8runo, n. and Longo, v
(2009). 1hree-years of SC2 flux measuremenLs of ML. LLna uslng an auLomaLed uv scanner array:


age 33
Comparlson wlLh convenLlonal Lraverses and uncerLalnLles ln flux reLrleval. !ournal of volcanology and
CeoLhermal 8esearch 183(1-2): 76-83

Snoke, !. A., Munsey, !. W., 1eague, A. C., and 8olllnger, C. A., 1983. A program for focal mechanlsm
deLermlnaLlon by comblned use of polarlLy and Sv- ampllLude raLlo daLa. LarLhquake noLes, 33.
Wadge, C., 8. Perd, C. 8yan, L. S. Calder, and !.-C. komorowskl, 2010, Lava producLlon aL Lhe Soufrlere
Pllls volcano, MonLserraL, 1993-2009, Ceophys. 8es. LeLLs., 37, L00L03, dol:10.1029/2009CL041466,


age 36
Append|x 1. Lvents of 22 -23 March 2012
A1.1 Introduct|on and Chrono|ogy
Cn 22 and 23 March selsmlclLy lncreased markedly aL SPv ln Lhe form of Lwo v1 swarms. 1he flrsL
occurred aL 20:04 u1C on 22 March wlLh 49 v1 evenLs over 47 mlnuLes and had no vlslble surface
acLlvlLy assoclaLed wlLh lL. Lleven hours laLer aL 07:10 u1C on 23 March a second more lnLense v1
swarm occurred over more Lhan Lwo hours (see nexL secLlon on selsmlclLy for deLalls). 1here were no
precursors Lo Lhe v1 swarms alLhough Lhere had been a sllghL lncrease ln rockfalls for Lhe Lwo weeks or
so prlor.
1he flrsL vlslble acLlvlLy occurred aL around 12:00 u1C on 23 March when lncreased fumarollc acLlvlLy
was noLlced, LogeLher wlLh a sLeam plume emanaLlng from a prevlously unknown locaLlon behlnd Cages
mounLaln (See whlLe arrow on llg A1.1a). AL Lhls Llme ash was belng weakly emlLLed from Lhe collapse
scar/dome summlL reglon. Ash emlsslon Lhen lncreased ln lnLenslLy and vlgour over Lhe nexL few hours,
wlLh fallouL occurrlng on Lhe wesLern flanks (llg A1.1b). 1hls reached a peak aL 13:43 u1C wlLh lnLense
black [eLs or 'cocks Lalls' rlslng Lo helghLs of 300 m above Lhe craLer floor (llg A1.1c) and lasLed 10 Lo 13
mlnuLes. 1he ash venLlng plumes reached maxlmum alLlLudes of around 6000 fL durlng Lhe mornlng of
23 March.
Cbservers aL !ack 8oy hlll conflrmed LhaL Lhls ash venLlng was occurrlng from Lhe back of Lhe collapse
scar and noL Lhe long-llved fumarole LhaL had prevlously been ldenLlfled (8lack arrow ln llg A1.1c)

I|g A1.1 vlews of volcano on mornlng of 23 March 2012 from MvC. (a) 8:00am L1 whlLe arrow lndlcaLes new
fumarole and craLer formed someLlme afLer Lhe v1 swarm earller on 23 March (b)10:30 am L1 showlng ash venLlng
and ashfall (c) eak of ash venLlng aL 11:33am L1 showlng sLrong black [eLs.


age 37
A1.2 Craters
1he maln venL, whlch was Lhe source of Lhe ash venLlng, was locaLed ln Lhe floor of Lhe 11 lebruary
2010 collapse scar, souLh of Lhe remnanLs of Lhe old Lngllsh's CraLer wall and souLhwesL of Lhe long-
llved, hlgh LemperaLure fumarole (8lack arrow ln llg A1.1, 'Cas venL' ln llg. A1.2). 1he venL ls esLlmaLed
Lo be around 30 and 30 meLres across and has a sllghLly elllpLlcal shape, elongaLed ln Lhe nnL-SSW
dlrecLlon. A slgnlflcanL Lephra ramparL was consLrucLed around Lhe rlm of Lhe venL. 1he second, smaller
venL ls locaLed ouLslde of Lhe collapse scar, on Lhe slope beLween Cage's MLn and Lhe lava dome. 1hls
venL, esLlmaLed aL 30 m long, has a more elongaLe shape, havlng a flssure-llke appearance. lL ls
elongaLed crudely ln a L-W dlrecLlon and appears Lo be allgned wlLh Lhe gas venL ln Lhe floor of Lhe
collapse scar. Powever, Lhere appears Lo be no obvlous sLrucLural relaLlonshlp beLween Lhe Lhree venLs.
1hermal lmages acqulred on 13 Aprll revealed Lhree hoLspoLs and a maxlmum (uncorrecLed)
LemperaLure of approxlmaLely 43 C lnslde Lhe venL, whlle observaLlons on 24 Aprll revealed waLer was
pondlng lnslde Lhe venL ouLslde Lhe collapse scar. no Lhermal lmages or close vlsual observaLlons of Lhe
new ash venL ln Lhe collapse scar have been made due Lo cloud condlLlons.

I|gure A1.2 : 1wo obllque aerlal phoLographs of Lhe new venLs formed durlng Lhe ash venLlng on 23 March 2012.
1he lmage on Lhe lefL shows Lhe locaLlon of Lhe maln venL lnslde Lhe 11 lebruary 2010 collapse scar relaLlve Lo Lhe
long-llved gas venL and Lhe remnanLs of Lngllsh's CraLer. hoLo by Creg ScoL, Carlbbean PellcopLers, 4 Aprll 2012.
1he second lmage shows Lhe new sLeam venL locaLed Lo Lhe wesL of Lhe 11 lebruary 2010 collapse scar, behlnd
Cage's MLn.
1.3 kockfa|| act|v|ty
AlLhough Lhe numbers are low, Lhere was a sllghL lncrease ln Lhe number of rockfall evenLs beglnnlng 3
March 2012, 18 days prlor Lo Lhe flrsL v1 swarm on 22 March. 1he sLarL of Lhe lncrease cannoL be
correlaLed wlLh heavy raln or changes ln SC
2
flux (due Lo Lhe lack of daLa) suggesLlng lL ls a posslble
precursor Lo Lhe v1 swarms and ash venLlng.


age 38

I|gure A1.3.1 CumulaLlve ploL of dally rockfall evenLs as recorded by Lhe MvC selsmlc neLwork agalnsL Lhe SC
2
flux
for Lhe perlod 3 november 2011 Lo 23 Aprll 2012. 1he orange sLar marks Lhe occurrence of Lhe Lwo v1 swarms.
lncreases ln rockfall acLlvlLy have occurred prlor Lo acLlvlLy ln prevlous pauses aL SPv (e.g., ause 1,
norLon eL al., 2002) and oLher volcanoes e.g., 8edoubL, 2003 (ue8oln and McnuLL, 2012), so lL ls
reasonable Lo assume Lhls Lhe lncrease observed from 3 March ls relaLed Lo Lhe v1 sLrlngs on 22 and 23
March 2012. 1he cause of Lhe lncrease ls noL known, Lhough one posslblllLy mlghL due Lo sllghL
pressurlsaLlon lnslde Lhe dome.
lL ls perhaps somewhaL surprlslng LhaL, alLhough Lhe Lwo v1 swarms on 22 and 23 March are Lwo of Lhe
mosL lnLense slnce 1993 and lncluded evenLs LhaL were reporLed as belng felL locally on MonLserraL,
Lhere was almosL no 8l acLlvlLy on Lhe 22 and 23 March wlLh only Lhree evenLs on 23 March, Lwo of
whlch occurred several hours afLer Lhe v1 swarm and ash venLlng had begun. Clearly Lhe v1 acLlvlLy dld
noL shake Lhe dome enough Lo generaLe rockfalls.

A1.3 Se|sm|c|ty on 22 and 23 March 2012
Swarm 1: 22 March 2012
8eglnnlng aL around 20:04 u1C on March 22, a sLrlng or swarm of v1 earLhquakes occurred, lncludlng
several relaLlvely large ampllLude evenLs. A LoLal of 49 evenLs were Lrlggered by Lhe earLhworm
deLecLlon algorlLhm ln 47 mlnuLes beLween 20:04 and 20:31 u1C, alLhough Lhls number ls somewhaL
sub[ecLlve as Lhe hlgh evenL raLe meanL some Lrlggered flles conLalned several evenLs whlch had Lo be
manually selecLed and cuL ouL. A manual counL, lncludlng many smaller evenLs ldenLlflable ln Lhe
conLlnuous daLa, gave a LoLal 113 evenLs ln [usL less Lhan 1 hour beLween 20:04 and 20:39 u1C. 1hree


age 39
60s 8SAM alarms were Lrlggered aL 20:11:08, 20:20:07 and 20:26:06 u1C, correspondlng Lo some of Lhe
largesL evenLs ln Lhe swarm wlLh MvC local magnlLudes of beLween M
L
2.6 and M
L
2.9.
uue Lo ouLages and Llmlng errors aL several sLaLlons (parLlcularly Lwo of Lhe closesL M8l8 and M8L?) a
maxlmum of only 7 sLaLlons were avallable for plcklng phases. 1hls meanL large errors ln Lhe deLermlned
hypocenLres, parLlcularly Lhe depLh consLralnLs. neverLheless, Lhe locaLlons appear Lo show Lhe vasL
ma[orlLy of evenLs occurred <2km below Lhe norLhern parL of Lhe dome, wlLh no obvlous mlgraLlon of
Lhe hypocenLers wlLh Llme (llgure A1.3). 1here was no vlslble lncrease ln degasslng, ash venLlng or
accompanylng Lremor lmmedlaLely afLer Lhls selsmlclLy, however lL was followed by a more lnLense v1
swarm approxlmaLely 11 hours laLer.

I|gure A1.3. PypocenLers of all locaLed v1 earLhquakes durlng Lhe swarm on 22 March 2012. 1op: 30 mlnuLe long
verLlcal componenL selsmogram recorded aL sLaLlon M8LC. LefL: PypocenLers of 40 locaLed evenLs wlLh assoclaLed
errors. 8lghL: 1emporal evoluLlon of Lhe local magnlLudes and hypocenLer coordlnaLes.
llve of Lhe besL consLralned of Lhese earLhquakes were selecLed for furLher analysls. 1hese were
selecLed on Lhe basls of Lhe smallesL depLh error and clearesL flrsL-moLlon polarlLles. v1 earLhquakes
such as Lhese are slmllar Lo small LecLonlc earLhquakes, and focal mechanlsms of such evenLs are
Lyplcally deLermlned from !-wave flrsL-moLlon polarlLles. laulL-plane soluLlons calculaLed ln Lhls way,
uslng a small number of polarlLles, are noLorlously senslLlve Lo varlous sources of error, lncludlng
polarlLy errors and poorly consLralned local selsmlc veloclLy sLrucLure (Pardebeck & Shearer, 2002,
2003). neverLheless, hypocenLers and some deLermlned focal mechanlsms for Lhese 3 earLhquakes are
shown ln llg A1.4. lor more deLall, furLher examples and dlscusslon on Lhe quallLy of Lhe soluLlons, see
Appendlx A2.


age 40
llrsLly, Lhe focal mechanlsms, alLhough ln some cases badly consLralned, show LhaL Lhere are a range of
faulL-orlenLaLlons and soluLlons ln Lhese evenLs. 1here are however some slmllar mechanlsms, wlLh
evenLs 1 and 3 closely locaLed and sharlng slmllar mosLly normal-faulL Lype mechanlsms. LvenLs 2 and 4,
wlLh mosLly sLrlke-sllp mechanlsms are acLually among Lhe leasL robusL (see Appendlx A2), and do noL
correspond Lo Lhe roLaLed" evenLs of 8oman eL al. (2006), as Lhe 1-axls azlmuLhs are closer Lo Lhe un-
roLaLed nL-SW Lrend.

I|gure A1.4. 8esL-flLLlng average focal mechanlsms for 3 of Lhe besL consLralned evenLs from Lhe March 22 v1
swarm. 1hose shown are esLlmaLes of Lhe besL soluLlons wlLh assoclaLed errors, uslng polarlLles only and generaLed
by uSCS PASP sofLware (Pardebeck & Shearer, 2002,2003). See Appendlx A2 for more deLalls.

Swarm 2: 23 March 2012
AL 07:10 u1C on March 23, an lnLense swarm of v1 earLhquakes occurred, lncludlng several very large
ampllLude evenLs, undoubLedly some of Lhe largesL magnlLude v1 earLhquakes Lo have occurred aL SPv
durlng Lhe lasL few years. A LoLal of 32 v1 evenLs were Lrlggered by earLhworm beLween 07:10 and
09:27 u1C, alLhough Lhe ma[orlLy (and Lhe largesL magnlLude) occurred ln only 13 mlnuLes beLween
07:10 and 07:23. Agaln, Lhls counL of Lrlggered evenLs ls somewhaL sub[ecLlve due Lo Lhe hlgh evenL
raLe. A manual counL gave a LoLal 123 evenLs ln 79 mlnuLes beLween 07:10 and 08:29 u1C. 8ecause of
Lhe very large ampllLude and overlapplng codas due Lo Lhe close Lemporal spaclng, Lhls ls llkely Lo be an


age 41
underesLlmaLe and some smaller evenLs wlll llkely have been mlssed. 1hree 60s 8SAM alarms were
Lrlggered aL 07:12:04, 07:20:04 and 07:22:03u1C, correspondlng Lo some of Lhe largesL evenLs ln Lhe
swarm wlLh MvC local magnlLudes of up Lo M
L
3.9, slgnlflcanLly larger Lhan Lhe swarm 11 hours earller,
or any v1s recorded aL SPv slnce Lhe end of hase 3.
1he end of Lhe mosL lnLense sequence of large magnlLude v1s was marked by Lhe largesL ampllLude
earLhquake aL 07:19:38. 1here were several felL reporLs from MonLserraL, and Lhls evenL was recorded
reglonally and able Lo be locaLed by S8C, wlLh a recorded duraLlon magnlLude of 3.3. 1hls was followed
by 3 dlsLlncL large magnlLude (M
L
3.3) hybrld evenLs aL 07:20:31, 07:21:00 and 07:21:43 (llgures A1.3 and
A1.6). 1he specLrogram ln llgure A1.3 shows LhaL Lhese hybrld evenLs had energy concenLraLed beLween
0.3-3Pz, dlsLlncLly dlfferenL Lo Lhe broader specLral conLenL and lack of low frequencles seen ln Lhe v1
evenLs. 1he Lhlrd large hybrld evenL aL 07:21:43 was able Lo be locaLed aL a depLh of 3.0 km 1.2km bsl.
lollowlng Lhls 13-mlnuLe long sequence, Lhe swarm conLlnued for approxlmaLely 2 hours, buL aL a much
reduced raLe and ampllLude. CuLages and Llmlng errors aL several sLaLlons, and Lhe close spaclng and
overlapplng codas hlndered plcklng of flrsL arrlvals for some evenLs. 1herefore Lhe errors ln Lhe
deLermlned hypocenLers (llgure A1.7) are even larger Lhan for Lhe swarm on March 22. Agaln, Lhere was
no clear mlgraLlon or evoluLlon of Lhe hypocenLers.
As for Lhe March 22 swarm, slx of Lhe besL consLralned earLhquakes were selecLed for furLher analysls,
agaln selecLed on Lhe basls of Lhe smallesL depLh error and clearesL flrsL-moLlon polarlLles. PypocenLers
and deLermlned focal mechanlsms for Lhese earLhquakes are dlsplayed ln llg A1.8. Agaln, for more
deLall and dlscusslon on Lhe quallLy of Lhe faulL-plane soluLlons see Appendlx A2. Cne observaLlon ls LhaL
Lhe largesL magnlLude M
L
3.9 evenL appears Lo have occurred sllghLly Lo Lhe norLh of Lhe oLhers, even
wlLh errors consldered, placlng lL beneaLh Lhe 11 lebruary 2010 collapse scar, raLher Lhan below Lhe
dome summlL (llgure A1.8).
1he focal mechanlsms agaln show a range of faulL orlenLaLlons, alLhough Lhese are even worse
consLralned, as Lhe exLremely close Lemporal spaclng of Lhese evenLs wlll llkely have led Lo polarlLy
errors. 1here are some slmllarlLles wlLh Lhe prevlous swarm, wlLh Lwo of Lhe shallower evenLs, 1 and 3,
showlng slmllarly orlenLed normal-faulL Lype mechanlsms. Agaln, Lhe Lwo mosLly sLrlke-sllp Lype
soluLlons would lf anyLhlng, correspond Lo Lhe un-roLaLed soluLlons of 8oman eL al. (2006) wlLh nL-SW
Lrendlng 1-azlmuLhs raLher Lhan Lhe 90 roLaLed nW-SL Lrendlng soluLlons.
Cn Lhls basls, Lhe evldence does noL appear Lo supporL Lhe lnLerpreLaLlon of an openlng of a nW-SL
Lrendlng dyke, whlch could be lnferred from Lhe sLraln daLa, alLhough lL cannoL be ruled ouL elLher.
Powever, Lhe poor quallLy of Lhe soluLlons, and Lhe facL LhaL only a small subseL of Lhe evenLs have been
analysed suggesLs any lnLerpreLaLlon should be LreaLed wlLh cauLlon.
As dlscussed earller, followlng Lhls selsmlclLy on Lhe mornlng of March 23 Lhere was a clear lncrease ln
degasslng from a new fumarole on Lhe flank behlnd Cages mounLaln and ash venLlng from a new venL ln
Lhe collapse scar. Cnly mosL vlgorous phase of Lhe venLlng was accompanled by low-ampllLude Lremor,
shown alongslde a phoLo of Lhe venL ln llgure A1.9. 1he Lremor slgnal was clearesL on sLaLlons closesL Lo


age 42
Lhe dome, and has a broad specLral conLenL, wlLh energy beLween 3 and 12 Pz, and lasLed for
approxlmaLely 7 mlnuLes.

I|gure A1.S. verLlcal componenL selsmogram and assoclaLed specLrogram showlng Lhe 3 large hybrld evenLs LhaL
occurred aL Lhe end of Lhe v1 swarm, followlng Lhe largesL M
L
3.9 v1 evenL. noLe Lhe energy concenLraLed beLween
0.3-4Pz, ln conLrasL Lo Lhe 3 v1 earLhquakes beLween Lhese hybrlds, whlch shown a lack of low-frequency conLenL.


age 43

I|gure A1.6. verLlcal componenL selsmograms recorded aL 6 broad-band sLaLlons showlng Lhe waveforms of Lhe 3
large hybrld evenLs LhaL occurred aL Lhe end of v1 swarm. 1races are arranged ln approxlmaLe order of dlsLance.
1hese Lhree evenLs occurred ln 2 mlnuLes, wlLh Lhe Lhlrd evenL havlng a local magnlLude of M
L
3.3

I|gure A1.7. PypocenLers of all locaLed v1 earLhquakes durlng Lhe swarm on 23 March 2012. 1op: 13 mlnuLe long
verLlcal componenL selsmogram recorded aL sLaLlon M8LC. LefL: PypocenLers of 30 locaLed evenLs wlLh assoclaLed
errors. 8lghL: 1emporal evoluLlon of Lhe local magnlLudes and hypocenLer coordlnaLes.


age 44

I|gure A1.8. 8esL-flLLlng average focal mechanlsms for 6 of Lhe besL consLralned evenLs from Lhe March 23 v1
swarm. 1hose shown are esLlmaLes of Lhe besL soluLlons, wlLh assoclaLed errors, uslng polarlLles only generaLed by
uSCS PASP sofLware (Pardebeck & Shearer, 2002,2003). See Appendlx A1 for more deLalls.


age 43

I|gure A1.9. hoLo and selsmogram showlng Lhe Lremor slgnal assoclaLed Lhe mosL vlgorous phase of ash venLlng
on March 23. noLe LhaL sLaLlon M8L? used ln Lhe flgure has a Llmlng error of around 20s, buL possessed Lhe besL
slgnal-Lo-nolse raLlo ln order Lo dlsplay Lhe Lremor slgnal. noLe Lhe small rockfall slgnal aL ~260s and v1 evenL aL
~330s on Lhe ploL. 1he phoLo was Laken from !ack 8oy Plll aL approxlmaLely 13:48 u1C.


age 46
Very |ong-per|od s|gna|
llgure A1.10 shows Lhe very-long perlod (below 0.1Pz, greaLer Lhan 10s perlod) selsmlc slgnal, LhaL was
recorded by Lhe MvC neLwork durlng Lhe lnLense phase of Lhe v1 swarm on March 23. lL shows verLlcal,
radlal and Lransverse componenL veloclLy selsmograms from Lhe operaLlonal broadband sLaLlons, low-
pass fllLered uslng a 2-pole zero-phase 8uLLerworLh fllLer wlLh a 0.1Pz cuL-off. 1he domlnanL perlod
varles beLween sLaLlons, buL ls as long as 100s seconds and below aL some sLaLlons.
1he ampllLude has been correcLed for lnsLrumenL galn and dlglLal callbraLlon (buL Lhe lnsLrumenL
response has ;$0 been removed) and normallzed for each sLaLlon. lnLeresLlngly, Lhe horlzonLal
componenLs domlnaLe aL some sLaLlons such as M88?, buL aL oLher such as M8C8, Lhe verLlcal
ampllLude ls much more slgnlflcanL, rullng ouL LllL as a source of Lhe slgnal. 1he daLa also appear Lo show
Lhree dlsLlncL pulses aL mosL sLaLlons, alLhough Lhe horlzonLal componenLs of Lhe closesL sLaLlon (M8LC)
ln parLlcular have much more complex waveforms. 1hese Lhree pulses colnclde wlLh each of Lhe Lhree
phases seen ln Lhe large ampllLude sLraln slgnal recorded aL 1ranLs, shown LogeLher wlLh Lhe selsmlc
slgnal ln llgure A1.11. 1he source of Lhls very long-perlod slgnal ls sLlll belng lnvesLlgaLed.

I|gure A1.10. verLlcal, 8adlal, and 1ransverse componenL selsmograms, low-pass fllLered below 0.1Pz.1he
ampllLudes have been normallzed for each of seven broadband sLaLlons, showlng Lhe relaLlve ampllLude beLween
horlzonLal and verLlcal componenLs. noLe ampllLudes have been llnearly correcLed Lo veloclLy and are uncorrecLed
for Lhe lnsLrumenL response. 1he Lraces are arranged ln approxlmaLe order from Lhe source (closesL aL Lop)


age 47

I|gure A1.11. Selsmlc, sLraln and hlgh-raLe CS daLa for Lhe evenL on March 23. 8oLh panels show 900 seconds of
daLa beglnnlng aL 07:10:00 u1C, wlLh daLa ln Lhe rlghL-hand panel low-pass fllLered below 0.1Pz. 1he selsmlc daLa
are verLlcal componenL selsmograms recorded aL M88? and M8C8. SLraln daLa are hlgh-raLe (30Pz) and 1Pz
slgnals recorded aL 1ranLs. 1he 1Pz CS daLa show Lhe verLlcal, norLh and easL componenLs of moLlon from 3
sLaLlons aL Parrls, PermlLage and WhlLe's ?ard, processed relaLlve Lo sLaLlon MvC1.

A.1.4 Stra|n
noLable sLraln measuremenLs were recorded durlng Lhe selsmlc/ash venLlng evenL of 23 March 2012.
llgureA1.12 shows sLraln daLa recorded by Lhe 1ranLs borehole sLralnmeLer ln March and Aprll. A clear
~dlurnal varlablllLy ln Lhe daLa ls Lhe ocean Llde loadlng aL 1ranLs. Long Lerm lnsLrumenL drlfL (poslLlve
change) ls approxlmaLely llnear and ls caused by ongolng equlllbraLlon of Lhe borehole lnsLrumenL. 1he
drlfL ln Lhe Llmeserles ls more complex ln Lhe weeks elLher slde of a perlodlc valve reseL, one of whlch
occurred on 17 Aprll 2012.
A 'sLep' of abouL 230 nanosLraln (nL) occurred aL 1ranLs durlng Lhe selsmlc acLlvlLy of 23 March. Plgh-
raLe deLall of Lhe sLraln Llmeserles ls shown ln llgure A1.11. 1hough Lhe evenL appeared Lo generaLe an


age 48
lnelasLlc sLraln slgnal ln Lhe shorL Lerm, lL seems LhaL some or all of Lhe sLraln sLep was reversed over Lhe
followlng 4-3 days. 1here ls no ready explanaLlon for a long-Lerm (>>hours) negaLlve gradlenL ln Lhe
daLa, oLher Lhan such a release. 1he lncrease ln sLraln aL 1ranLs beLween 30 March and 3 Aprll was
perhaps a repeaL of a slmllar process, assoclaLed wlLh v1 acLlvlLy on 30
Lh
/31
sL
March. 1hree small (10s of
nL) sLraln sLeps occurred ln laLe Aprll 2012, and Lhese may correspond Lo very small fragmenLaLlon
evenLs ln Lhe shallow condulL. 1here was no selsmlclLy assoclaLed wlLh Lhese evenLs.
1yplcally, daLa from mulLlple sLralnmeLers can slgnlflcanLly consLraln Lhe source of sLraln slgnals. uaLa
recovered from Lhe Cerald's sLralnmeLer by Lhe ClW Leam lndlcaLes LhaL Lhe sLraln source was
conslsLenL wlLh a shallow reservolr and dyke (Mogl+Ckada) source. noLably, Lhese exLra daLa can be
used Lo confldenLly exclude Lhe lnvolvemenL of a lower pressure source (deep reservolr). 1o Lhls exLenL,
Lhe March 2012 appears Lo have slmllarlLles wlLh Lhe March 2004 exploslve acLlvlLy.

I|gure A1.12. SLraln measuremenLs made aL 1ranLs (Lr) beLween 13 March and 10 Aprll 2012. uaLa are
sampled aL 1Pz and unfllLered. CallbraLlon facLor provlded by A.Llnde

A1.S SC
2
pu|se
SC
2
pulses assoclaLed wlLh prevlous v1 acLlvlLy has been recognlsed, however ln Lhe oLher prevlous
cases Lhe gas pulses were less lnLense and had longer duraLlons. 1he SC
2
pulse assoclaLed wlLh Lhe
evenLs of 22-23 March occurred roughly a monLh afLer Lhe SC2 emlsslon raLes sLarLed lncreaslng from
an average of ~400L/d. 1he delayed pulse began on Lhe 24
Lh
, and peaked on Lhe 26
Lh
. 1he flux value on
Lhe 23
L
March was conslderably lower (690 L/d) Lhan Lhe days elLher slde. 1he CMl saLelllLe mounLed
specLromeLer produced flux esLlmaLes of > 1000-2000 L/d on Lhe 24

March and 600-1300 L/d on Lhe 27
Lh
,
no daLa was avallable for Lhe 23
Lh
and 26
Lh
. 1hese observaLlons are conslsLenL wlLh Lhe lncreased flux
raLes obLalned from Lhe neLwork specLromeLers.


age 49
A1.6 Summary and some specu|at|ve |nterpretat|on
1he evenLs of Lhe 22-23 March represenL a remarkable occurrence ln Lerms of Lhe magnlLude of boLh
Lhe selsmlclLy and sLraln slgnal generaLed. Surface acLlvlLy was less sLrlklng, buL Lhe ash venLlng was
cerLalnly Lhe sLrongesL Lo have occurred durlng Lhls 'pause' and Lwo new craLers were formed, one by
Lhe ash venLlng and anoLher assoclaLed wlLh sLeam-rlch fumarollc acLlvlLy.
1he sllghL lncrease ln rockfalls abouL Lwo weeks prlor, and some proxlmal deformaLlon suggesLed by Lhe
LuM daLa up Lo Lwo monLhs prlor, as well as lncreased levels of SC
2
emlsslons suggesL some precursory
local near-fleld deformaLlon of Lhe dome and lmmedlaLe surroundlngs. Such proxlmal deformaLlon
shallow ln Lhe edlflce could perhaps be explalned by an lnLruslon of magma wlLhln Lhe dome, alLhough
Lhe low rockfall numbers and lack of slgnlflcanL Lhermal anomalles lndlcaLe Lhe volume of such an
lnLruslon ls llkely small. A broader deformaLlon sLep-change ls evldenL ln Lhe mosL proxlmal conLlnuous
CS sLaLlons before and afLer Lhe evenL.
1he v1 earLhquakes on 23 March were some of Lhe largesL recorded aL SPv. local mechanlsms of a
selecLlon of evenLs show no obvlous paLLerns, alLhough more deLalled analysls mlghL reveal more.
1he absoluLe magnlLudes (100s nL) and raLlo of Lhe sLraln slgnals measured aL 1ranLs and Ceralds
lndlcaLe LhaL Lhe source of deformaLlon ls conslsLenL wlLh Lhe shallow magma reservolr and dyke wlLh
no conLrlbuLlon from Lhe deeper sysLem. 1he relaLlvely shorL duraLlon of Lhe sLraln slgnal, and Lhe
lnferred speed of mass LransporL Lhrough Lhe dyke, suggesLs gas raLher Lhan magma was Lhe drlvlng
force, enLerlng a dyke/fracLure above a shallow (~6 km) magma reservolr. 1haL Lhls dld noL lead Lo
exploslve fragmenLaLlon ls perhaps surprlslng. 1he correlaLlon of Lhree vL selsmlc slgnals wlLh Lhree
dlsLlncL phases ln Lhe sLraln slgnal suggesL a propagaLlon of Lhe sLraln source, and furLher analysls may
place some depLh consLralnLs on Lhe source of Lhese slgnals.
1he 22-23 March evenLs have broad slmllarlLles wlLh v1 sLrlngs LhaL have occurred aL SPv slnce 2007, ln
Lerms of Lhe relaLlvely shorL duraLlon of Lhe v1 selsmlclLy and correlaLlon wlLh ash venLlng and lncreased
degasslng. 1he sLrong pulse of SC
2
assoclaLed wlLh Lhls evenL ls slmllar Lo lncreases ln emlsslon
assoclaLed wlLh several oLher v1 sLrlngs. Powever, Lhe magnlLude of Lhls evenL was clearly much larger
and sLraln evenLs have noL been ldenLlfled wlLh oLher v1 sLrlngs. lL seems LhaL Lhese evenLs llkely share
some, buL perhaps noL all, of Lhe same sysLem dynamlcs.


age 30
Append|x 2: Ioca| mechan|sms of V1 earthquakes on March 22-23 2012.
local mechanlsm analysls was underLaken for Lwo daLaseLs comprlslng of Lhe besL consLralned
(hypocenLers) evenLs selecLed from Lhe v1 swarms on March 22 and 23 2012 (see SecLlon A1.3).
ln order Lo Lry and assess Lhe quallLy and robusLness of Lhe focal mechanlsms deLermlned, Lhls appendlx
presenLs varlous LesLs LhaL were performed on Lhe daLaseLs for each swarm. 1he soluLlons were
calculaLed uslng several dlfferenL sofLware packages and approaches, and Lhe senslLlvlLy Lo Lhe
(relaLlvely) large depLh errors was explored. 1he use of SP Lo ampllLude raLlos Lo Lry and furLher
consLraln Lhe soluLlons was also Lrlalled.
A2.1 March 22 swarm
Compar|son of methods

I|gure A2.1 local mechanlsms for Lhe 3 besL consLralned evenLs chosen from Lhe v1 swarm on March 22. Lach
focal sphere shows focal mechanlsms deLermlned uslng flrsL moLlon polarlLles only by Lhree dlfferenL meLhods.
oslLlons of Lhe and 1 axes are also marked. 8lue: besL flLLlng average soluLlon compuLed by uSCS PASP sofLware
(Pardebeck & Shearer 2002,2003). Creen: soluLlon compuLed from lnv momenL Lensor lnverslon sofLware, 8ed:
soluLlon deLermlned uslng lll1 forLran sofLware (8easenberg & Cppenhelmer 1983).


age 31
Depth sens|t|v|ty

I|gure A2.2 uepLh senslLlvlLy of focal mechanlsms for selecLed March 22 evenLs. 1he soluLlons were deLermlned by
movlng Lhe hypocenLer verLlcally wlLhln lLs depLh error bounds. 1op: soluLlons for upper depLh bound (LruncaLed
Lo 0.3km bsl lf above), Mlddle: soluLlons uslng orlglnal hypocenLral depLh. 8oLLom: soluLlons for lower depLh
bound. local mechanlsms were deLermlned uslng a 10 search angle uslng lCCMLC (Snoke eL. al 1984) by varylng
Lhe hypocenLer depLh and recompuLlng Lhe approprlaLe Lake-off angles.


age 32
Sn to amp||tude rat|os

I|gure A2.3 local mechanlsms for March 22 evenLs consLralned uslng SP (LangenLlal) Lo (verLlcal) ampllLude
raLlos ln addlLlon Lo flrsL-moLlon polarlLles. 1op: SoluLlons deLermlned uslng lCCMLC wlLh a 3 search angle.
8oLLom: 8esL flLLlng average soluLlons compuLed uslng PASP sofLware.

1he Lhree meLhods employed use sllghLly dlfferenL approaches. lll1 uses a grld search meLhod Lo flnd
Lhe double -couple faulL plane soluLlon LhaL besL flLs a glven seL of observed flrsL-moLlon polarlLles.
PASP also uses polarlLles buL ln addlLlon can employ ampllLude raLlos, and one of Lhe advanLages wlLh lL
ls LhaL lL flnds one or a few besL soluLlons, raLher Lhan havlng Lo selecL one from amongsL many as wlLh
lCCMLC. 1he lnv program makes a prellmlnary besL faulL plane soluLlon based on polarlLles, by
lnverLlng for an assumed double-couple momenL Lensor wlLh unlL ampllLudes.
1he resulLs ln llgure A2.1 show LhaL Lhe Lhree meLhods are ln broad agreemenL for mosL of Lhe evenLs,
alLhough evenL number 4 ls Lhe worsL consLralned, perhaps suggesLlng polarlLy errors.
llgure A2.2 shows LhaL some of Lhe soluLlons obLalned are more robusL (e.g. evenL 1), and less senslLlve
Lo depLh, as Lhe soluLlons appear sLable across Lhe depLh range. CLher evenLs show mulLlple soluLlons
(parLlcularly evenL 3) whlch show dlsLlncL famllles, posslbly relaLed Lo Lhe neLwork conflguraLlon.


age 33
llgure A2.3 suggesLs LhaL uslng ampllLude raLlos does noL necessarlly lmprove or beLLer consLraln Lhe
soluLlons, alLhough lL dld reduce Lhe range of soluLlons found by lCCMLC. 1hose generaLed by PASP ln
parLlcular, change llLLle from Lhe soluLlons uslng polarlLles only, alLhough evenL number 2 swlLches from
sLrlke-sllp. 1he many assumpLlons and sources of error lnLroduced by uslng ampllLudes such as: poorly
consLralned veloclLy sLrucLure, olsson's raLlo, > model and slLe effecLs, as well as dlfflculLy ln ldenLlfylng
some 6-wave arrlvals, suggesLs Lhelr use should be avolded as Lhe lmpacL on Lhe soluLlons appears
mlnlmal. More plcks and polarlLles, from a fully funcLlonlng neLwork wlLhouL Llmlng errors, would llkely
help Lo lmprove hypocenLral locaLlons and consLraln focal mechanlsms more.
A2.2 March 23 swarm
Compar|son of methods

I|gure A2.4 local mechanlsms for Lhe 6 besL consLralned evenLs chosen from Lhe v1 swarm on March 23. Lach
focal sphere shows focal mechanlsms deLermlned uslng flrsL moLlon polarlLles only by Lhree dlfferenL meLhods.
oslLlons of Lhe and 1 axes are also marked. 8lue: besL flLLlng average soluLlon compuLed by uSCS PASP sofLware
(Pardebeck & Shearer 2002,2003). Creen: soluLlon compuLed from lnv momenL Lensor lnverslon sofLware, 8ed:
soluLlon deLermlned uslng lll1 forLran sofLware (8easenberg & Cppenhelmer 1983).
1he dlfferlng meLhods are agaln ln general agreemenL, alLhough maybe noL as much as for Lhe March 22
swarm. LvenL 1 seems Lhe mosL reasonable and agaln, ln general, Lhe normal faulLlng mechanlsms seem
Lo be more robusL.


age 34
Depth sens|t|v|ty

I|gure A2.S uepLh senslLlvlLy of focal mechanlsms for selecLed March 23 v1 evenLs. 1he soluLlons were deLermlned
by movlng Lhe hypocenLer verLlcally wlLhln lLs depLh error bounds. 1op: soluLlons for upper depLh bound
(LruncaLed Lo 0.3km bsl lf above), Mlddle: soluLlons uslng orlglnal hypocenLral depLh. 8oLLom: soluLlons for lower
depLh bound. local mechanlsms were deLermlned uslng 10 search angle uslng lCCMLC (Snoke eL. al 1984) by
varylng Lhe hypocenLer depLh and recompuLlng Lhe approprlaLe Lake-off angles.


age 33

Sn to amp||tude rat|os

I|gure A2.6 local mechanlsms for March 23 evenLs consLralned uslng SP (LangenLlal) Lo (verLlcal) ampllLude
raLlos ln addlLlon Lo flrsL-moLlon polarlLles. 1op: SoluLlons deLermlned uslng lCCMLC wlLh a 3 search angle.
8oLLom: 8esL flLLlng average soluLlons compuLed uslng PASP sofLware.

llgure A2.3 shows Lhe largesL magnlLude M
L
3.9 evenL (number 6) appears Lo be very depLh senslLlve -
wlLh a dlfferenL soluLlon ln Lhe mlddle of lLs range compared Lo Lhe exLremes. 1hls ls reflecLed ln Lhe
dlfferenL soluLlon generaLed by lll1 and PASP, whlch show someLhlng closer Lo sLrlke-sllp Lhan Lhe
dlp-sllp soluLlon produced by lCCMLC. As Lhls evenL was deLecLed reglonally and locaLed by S8C, lL ls
planned Lo lncorporaLe Lhese furLher dlsLal plcks and polarlLles Lo Lry and consLraln Lhe soluLlon furLher.

lL should be noLed LhaL all Lhe soluLlons shown ln Lhls appendlx have assumed a pure-double source
mechanlsm, so Lhls analysls does noL glve any lnformaLlon abouL any volumeLrlc or CLvu componenLs of
Lhe earLhquake sources.


age 36
Append|x 3: GS-Measured Deformat|on at SnV
A3.1 GS post process|ng
llgures A3.1-A3.3 show Lhe radlal, LangenLlal and verLlcal componenLs of dlsplacemenL aL MonLserraL
cCS sLaLlons, compared Lo AnLlgua. 1he flrsL-order response of ground deformaLlon Lo volcanlc acLlvlLy
ls mosL pronounced ln far fleld sLaLlons ln Lhe horlzonLal (radlal) componenL and near fleld sLaLlons ln
Lhe verLlcal componenL.

I|gure A3.1 PorlzonLal dlsplacemenL of cCS sLaLlons radlally ouLward from Lhe volcano. A flxed LecLonlc
moLlon has been removed from Lhe daLa buL no oLher de-Lrendlng was used. AuLomaLed sLep-offseL
ad[usLmenLs were applled where equlpmenL has been changed over Lhe years. SLaLlons are arranged ln
order of lncreaslng radlal dlsLance from Lhe venL. A zero-veloclLy reference llne ls shown aL Lhe zero-
mean poslLlon for each sLaLlon, coloured accordlngly. hases of lava exLruslon are shaded plnk
(LranslLlonal phases ln pale plnk). CrnamenL ls oLherwlse as used ln Lhe MvC reporL Lo SAC 16.


age 37

I|gure A3.2 PorlzonLal dlsplacemenL of CS sLaLlons LangenLlally, clockwlse around Lhe SPv venL. uaLa
manlpulaLlon oLherwlse as descrlbed ln llgure A1.1.


age 38

I|gure A3.3. verLlcal dlsplacemenL of CS sLaLlons on MonLserraL. no LecLonlc slgnaLure ls removed
from Lhese daLa. uaLa manlpulaLlon oLherwlse as descrlbed ln llgure A1.1.


age 39

I|gure A3.4. PorlzonLal radlal dlsplacemenL of campalgn (e)CS sLaLlons on MonLserraL beLween 2009
and 2012. uaLa manlpulaLlon and ornamenL as descrlbed ln llgure A1.1.


age 60

I|gure A3.S. verLlcal dlsplacemenL of eCS sLaLlons on MonLserraL beLween 2009 and Aprll 2012. uaLa
manlpulaLlon and ornamenL as descrlbed ln llgure A1.1.

A3.2 1ecton|c |ate Mode| for Montserrat
1he LecLonlc componenL of dlsplacemenLs recorded on MonLserraL would ldeally be removed before
analyslng Llmeserles daLa and veloclLy esLlmaLlons. 1hls LecLonlc componenL can be gleaned from
knowledge of reglonal plaLe moLlons or derlved from our own daLa. 1he CAMl1/CLC8k sofLware
conLalns a 'plaLe' module, whlch has allowed us Lo esLlmaLe Lhe LecLonlc moLlon of Lhe AnLllles reglon
based on daLa recorded on MonLserraL and reglonal sLaLlons. 1hls approach has been used Lo remove
Lhe LecLonlc componenL of Llme serles shown ln Lhls reporL and Lhe followlng brlef explanaLlon serves as
a summary/ reference.
veloclLles were esLlmaLed from Lhe compleLe cCS Llmeserles record. Longer Llmeserles generally
consLraln veloclLy esLlmaLes beLLer. 1he meLhod for deflnlng a plaLe model for use ln geodeLlc
compuLaLlon lnvolves grouplng a serles of sLaLlons whlch are sLaLlsLlcally conslsLenL when compared Lo a
flxed-plaLe roLaLlon (l.e. Lhelr resldual veloclLy Lo LhaL 'plaLe' ls accepLably low). 1he plaLe moLlon may
Lhus be deflned by Lhree roLaLlon veloclLles, around Lhree orLhogonal earLh-cenLred axes. 1he plaLe
model removed from Lhe daLa shown here ls deflned by roLaLlon veloclLles of -0.084, -0.110 and 0.117
degrees per mllllon years abouL Lhe x, ? and Z axls of Lhe WCS84 LarLh-CenLred, LarLh-llxed (LCLl)


age 61
CarLeslan reference frame. 1hls ls used ln con[uncLlon wlLh a-prlorl veloclLles of varlous sLaLlons used ln
Lhe processlng rouLlne Lo esLlmaLe veloclLles LhaL are approxlmaLely relaLlve Lo a flxed norLhern AnLllles
LecLonlc plaLe.

A3.3 LDM Network
llgure A3.6 shows Lhe dlsLrlbuLlon of LuM basellnes around Lhe flanks of SPv for reference Lo Lhe maln
reporL LexL.

I|gure A3.6 MvC LuM neLwork slLes (clrcles) and measured basellnes (dashed llnes). ale red lndlcaLe
slLes LhaL are noL used ln rouLlne surveylng.

Monterrat Volcano Observatory Scientific Report

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