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A2 PHYSI CAL GEOGRAPHY

EARTH HAZARDS
You need to:
Have knowledge and understanding of the meaning of
hazards and their degree of predictability
Be able to explain the short and long term impacts on an environment and a community
Have knowledge of case studies selected from different areas and scales appropriate to the hazards being
examined.
Questions for investigation?
1. What are the hazards associated with mass movement and slope failure?
2. What are the hazards associated with flooding?
3. What are the hazards associated with earthquake and volcanic activity?
4. Why do the impacts on human activity vary over time and location?
5. How can hazards be managed to reduce their impact?
KEY TERM NATURAL HAZARD

CONSIDER
1. Are natural hazards becoming more frequent or are more people living in hazardous environments?
2. Are there ways in which human activities are leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of
hazards?
3. In what ways are Earth hazards socially selective?




NATURAL HAZARDS are naturally occurring events (including mass movements, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods).
What makes them hazardous is the adverse affect they have on economy and society. These often cause death
and injury, destroy property and infrastructure and disrupt social and economic systems.
Natural hazards only occur when natural events interact with people e.g. a volcanic eruption on an uninhabited
island is non hazardous.
When natural hazards result in major loss of life, injury and economic damage, they are known as a natural
disaster.
Despite their name natural hazards can be caused, or made worse by human activities e.g. deforestation can
trigger mass movements or cause serious flooding. People have a more direct effect on the impact of natural
hazards. The distribution and density of population, the level of economic development, the preparedness, are
just some of the human factors that influence the impact of hazardous events.
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EARTH HAZARD 1: MASS MOVEMENTS
SYLLABUS CONTENT
Questions for
investigation
Key Ideas Content
What are the hazards
associated with mass
movement and slope
failure?
Mass movement is more likely
to occur when both physical
and human factors disturb the
equilibrium of a slope. Mass
movement has a range of
environmental and social
impacts on the areas affected,
which create a range of human
responses to the hazard.
The study of the processes and conditions that lead to
mass movements:
Physical conditions (including slope angle,
weathering, vegetation, climate and weather,
drainage and rock types) and human activities
(including deforestation, adding weight,
undercutting slopes, quarrying) leading to
various types of mass movement
Processes involved in the main types of mass
movement: slides, flows and creeps
The study of at least two mass movement events to
illustrate:
The interaction of physical and human factors
in causing the hazard events;
The resulting impacts (environmental, social
and economic)
The human reaction in both the short term
(emergency rescue) and long term (planning
and management)
CASE STUDIES:
1)
2)

Photos:
Slumping at the Holderness Coastline Rotational Slip, Walton on the Naze


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MASS MOVEMENTS
TASK: TEXT BOOK SUMMARY background reading before the lesson
Mass wasting refers to the gravity induced movement of loose, earthy material (soil and regolith) downslope from
positions of lesser stability to greater stability. Many environmental factors influence the mass wasting process, but
each can be linked to two fundamental controls: the shear strength of the material (the resisting force holding the
material in place), and shear stress (the driving force pulling the material downslope). The shear strength of an
unconsolidated material is related to its cohesion, internal friction, and effective normal stress, while the shear
stress is related to the materials mass and slope angle on which it lies; decreasing shear strength and/or increasing
shear stress will cause greater instability. Cohesion is principally a function of binding agents such as living roots and
decayed organic matter present in the soil, so loss of cohesion occurs when vegetation is removed (by forest fires
and/or timber harvesting). Internal friction is related to the abundance of coarse, angular grains within an earthy
material, characteristics that enhance their potential to interlock; loss of friction occurs with greater weathering and
an increase in clay content, and by shaking the material (such as may occur during an earthquake or volcanic
eruption). Effective normal stress results from the water found in the material, the highest effective normal stresses
occurring under moist conditions, but the lowest under saturated conditions, such as may occur after intense rainfall
or during seasonally wet periods. Mass is most commonly enhanced by the addition of water from rain and/or
snowmelt, while slope angle can be increased when slopes are undermined by streambank erosion or the formation
of gullies (or by the building of roadways).
In the western U.S., the naturally steep slopes of mountainous terrain and the naturally wet conditions that prevail
for much of the year, combine to enhance shear stress. Add to that the multitude of roads built mainly for timber
harvesting, and shear stresses climb even more. Shear strength is lost by natural and human-caused forest fires and
timber harvesting which reduces vegetative cover and soil cohesion, by high rates of soil weathering in moist
climates, by the significant potential for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions which reduce internal friction, and the
naturally wet conditions that saturate earthy material and reduce effective normal stress.
Mass wasting occurs most commonly by gentle, persistent creep, and as infrequent, but more catastrophic rock falls,
debris slides and flows, generally categorized on the basis of water content and rate of movement (Figure
17). Creep occurs universally, even on slopes of very low angle; the process is a result of freeze-thaw of wet soil
during cool periods and/or hydration-dehydration of clay minerals in soil. Rock falls literally involve blocks of falling
rock that have been loosened from cliffs and other steeply sloping exposures. The process usually involves physically
prying the rocks loose by frost action and often results in the construction of a talus cone, a conical mound of debris
stacked against the base of the cliff. Slides occur as a coherent mass that slips along a distinct failure surface such as
a bedding plane oriented downslope, or where a mass of soil and regolith, such as glacial debris, rests on
bedrock. Flows involve loose, earthy material that deforms and moves downslope as an incoherent, plastic
mush. Flows can be slow to fast, depending on water content; earth flows containing the less water and being the
slowest, debris flows with more water and faster still, and mud flows containing the greatest amount of water and
flowing most rapidly. Flows often begin as coherent slide blocks, begin to break up as they move down slope and
incorporate water, and as they enter streams, become mud flows in the end. Flows are abundant features on steep
slopes and highly weathered soils. Lahars are a unique form of flow incorporating pyroclastic material, formed
during or subsequent to a volcanic eruption, and commonly found in volcanic terrains.






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MASS MOVEMENTS
KEY TERM
Mass movement The downhill transfer of slope materials as a coherent body.
Include any large-scale movement of the earths surface, which are not accompanied by a
moving agent such as river, glacier or ocean wave.
They include small movements, such as soil creep and frost heave (which cause very little
damage to people and property) to large, fast movements such as avalanches and landslides
(which can be extremely hazardous). They vary from dry movements, such as rock falls, to
very fluid movements such as mud flows.

THE CAUSES OF MASS MOVEMENTS
Therefore, slope failure can be caused by either
1. A reduction in the resisting forces (also known as the internal resistance, or shear strength) and/ or,
2. An increase in the driving forces, which attempt to pull a mass down a slope (also known as shear stress)



Some slopes are more prone to mass movements than
others, it can depend on the material characteristics of the
slope, the angle of the slope, the weathering processes that
operate in that environments (weather, water availability
and climate), the rock structure and lithology (the number
of faults, joints and bedding planes)
Draw a small diagram to represent the forces
acting on a slope

Slopes represent a balance between driving and resisting forces. Mass movements occur when the downslope
forces exceed the upslope forces.
When the slope failure occurs, the slope angle is lowered which restores stability.
5

A number of factors (both natural and induced by human activity) may tip the balance between the resisting and
driving forces, triggering slope failure:
Steepening and undercutting at the base of a slope increases the driving force. This can result from natural
erosion e.g. valley side slope undercut by a river) or human activity (e.g. road cutting)
Loading the slope increases the driving force. The most common cause of loading is heavy rain, which adds
to the mass of material on the slope. Loading may also result from rock fall and building on the slopes.
Heavy rain lubricates slope materials and decreases the resisting force.
Heavy rain increases water pressure within the pores of mineral materials, reducing their coherence and
decreasing the resisting force. Water reduces the cohesion of particles by saturation. Water pressure in
saturated soils (pore water pressure) decreases the frictional strength of the slope material. Weakening the
slope.
Deforestation removes the binding effects of tree roots on slopes and increases the amount of water
absorbed by slope materials. Its effect is twofold: to reduce the resisting force and increase the driving force
Earthquakes reduce the resistance of slope materials through violent shaking






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TYPES OF MASS MOVEMENT HAZARDS
There are different types of mass movement, not all of which are hazardous. Slides can, potentially, lead to
hazardous events, they are they are masses of material that move across a clearly defined slide plane. This means
velocity is uniform throughout the sliding mass. Flows, which decrease in velocity with depth, can also be potentially
hazardous. Both slides and flows vary in their speed of movement, water content and particle size most hazardous
ones are fast moving and give people little time for evacuation. Heaves, however, do not tend to be particularly
hazardous.
There are many different types of mass movement, not all of which are classified as landslides. The diagram below
shows some of the different types of mass movement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrV4uCVwmfk - make a note of the causes and types of landslides
Read through the USGS leaflet on landslides http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2004/3072/pdf/fs2004-3072.pdf, and briefly
outline the different types of mass movement
Note Regolith, a region of loose unconsolidated rock and dust that sits atop a layer of bedrock.






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MASS MOVEMENTS SUMMARY TABLE Complete, or personalise
TYPE OF MASS
MOVEMENT
DESCRIPTION PHOTOGRAPH/ DIAGRAM
EARTHFLOWS The most common type
Consist of bodies of granular regolith which flow downhill.
Have a lower water content than mudflows
A steep scarp defines the hard
In a long profile earthflows are concave near the head and
convex upward, near the toe
Rates of movement range from a few centimeters a month to
over 100kmh-1

MUDFLOWS More mobile, saturated flow
Comprising of clay and silt-sized particles
More rapid than earthflows
Most common in areas with sparse vegetation cover
In hot deserts mudflows often form large fans at the foot of
mountain slopes
In areas of active volcanism, where loose ash is easily
transported by runoff, mudlfows are known as lahars.

DEBRIS FLOWS Consists of coarse regolith including boulders and other debris
e.g. timber
Rates of flow can reach 50kmh-1
Associated with heavy rainfall events
Produce coarse, lobe-like deposits (alluvial fans) along
mountain fronts

ROTATIONAL
SLIDE
Deep landslides which take place across a curved slide plane
The moving mass shows evidence of rotation with titled back
slopes
Rotational slides often occur on steep slopes where basal
undercutting (by a river or waves) steepens the gradient
Found where permeable caprocks overlie impermeable rocks
such as shale or clay

DEBRIS SLIDES
& MUDFLOWS
Mass movements of loose rock debris
Material rolls/ slides downslope forming irregular hummocky
deposits
Fast moving landslides of mud
Resemble flows due to their high water content but unlike
mudflows all movement occurs along a basal side plane
Occur when torrential rain saturates steep slopes until they
become unstable

The science of landslides (video) http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/world/asia/aid-effort-begins-at-scene-of-
afghan-landslides.html?_r=0





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WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS OF & RESPONSES TO A LANDSLIDE HAZARD?
The effects of a landslide vary in severity depending on factors such as the rock type, climate, amount of rainfall, the
countrys level of development etc. We will look at the effects of a landslide, which can be physical, economic and
social in relation to specific case studies.
Similarly, the responses to mass movement hazards will vary depending on the location and specific circumstances
of the hazard. Short-term responses can include establishing evacuation centers, emergency aid, disaster relief funds
and longer term responses involve reconstruction and redevelopment. Again, these will be looked at within the
context of our case studies.
You need two mass movement case studies, of countries at different levels of economic development. You may use
the ve
CASE STUDY: WASHINGTON, 23 MARCH, 2014 (MEDC CASE STUDY USA)
CNN -
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/25/us/washington-
landslide/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
New York Times -
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/us/washingt
on-mudslide-search-continues.html?hp
Los Angeles Times -
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-mudslide-
20140325,0,6253245.story#axzz2wzouuNzM
BBC News - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-
canada-26726746 and
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-
26728886

NPR - http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-
way/2014/03/25/294201722/national-guard-
to-join-search-in-washington-state-mudslide
USA Today -
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/natio
n/2014/03/25/washington-state-mudslide-
oso-arlington/6855733/ and
http://www.usatoday.com/media/cinematic/
video/6852995/ and
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/20
14/03/24/rain-precipitation-weather-
washington-landslide/6836587/ and
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nati
on/2014/03/25/6852995/


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CASE STUDY: BADAKHSHAN, 2
ND
MAY, 2014 (LEDC CASE STUDY AFGHANISTAN)

BBC - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27272937
NY times - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/world/asia/aid-effort-begins-at-scene-of-afghan-
landslides.html?_r=0
Washington Post - http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/aid-rescue-efforts-mounted-after-deadly-
landslide-in-northern-afghanistan/2014/05/03/851d2c5e-d2cf-11e3-aae8-c2d44bd79778_story.html

Other references
Office of disaster preparedness and management - http://www.odpm.gov.tt/node/17
USGS landslides - http://landslides.usgs.gov
Video (case study) http://landslides.usgs.gov (highlights different types of landslides in California)
Landslides glossary http://landslides.usgs.gov/learn/glossary.php
Landslides 101 http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/101-videos/landslides
PAST PAPER QUESTIONS: MASS MOVEMENTS:
January 2013 study figure 1. A classification of mass movements. Outline a geographical issue indicated and
suggest appropriate strategies for its management (10)
January 2012 assess the extent to which risk from mass movement results more from human rather than
physical factors (30)
January 2011 to what extent is there a range of human responses to hazards associated with mass movement?
(30)
January 2010 study figure 1, which shows mass movements and slope failture. Outline a geographical issue
indicated and suggest appropriate strategies for its management (10)

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MASS MOVEMENT CASE STUDY 1:
PHYSICAL CAUSES
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-washington-
mudslide-cause-geology-20140325,0,5556584.story#axzz2xbLQ2FFZ

HUMAN CAUSES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
SOCIAL IMPACTS
SHORT TERM RESPONSES
LONG TERM RESPONSES (planning & management)
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MASS MOVEMENT CASE STUDY 2:




PHYSICAL CAUSES
HUMAN CAUSES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
SOCIAL IMPACTS
SHORT TERM RESPONSES
LONG TERM RESPONSES (planning &
management)
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EARTH HAZARDS: FLOODING
Questions for
investigation
Key Ideas Content
What are the hazards
associated with
flooding?
Flood risk reflects a
combination of physical and
human factors and these vary
from place to place. Flooding
has a range of environmental
and social impacts on the areas
affected, which create a range
of human responses to the
hazard.
The study of one river and one coastal area prone to
flooding, to illustrate:
The physical factors involved (including height,
relief, drainage regime, climate, vegetation and
rock type)
The human factors involved (including
settlement building, farming, deforestation,
drainage)
The resulting impacts (environmental, social,
and economic) of flooding
The human reaction in both the short term
(emergency rescue) and long term (planning
and management)


FLOOD HAZARDS AT A GLOBAL SCALE
200 million people, in more than 90 countries are exposed to severe floods
they are the worlds greatest natural hazard
between 1980-2000 = 170,000 deaths due to floods
Relative vulnerability = number of deaths as a proportion to the size of the exposed population
TASK: Looking at the graphs on Pg 22 and 23:
1. Which countries have the most vulnerable populations?
2. Which countries have the highest relative vulnerability?
3. Can you explain why populations in these countries are most at risk of flooding?
4. What is the time frame for these statistics? Does this make a difference?


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RIVER FLOODING
Remember! Floods are naturally occurring events, most rivers flood annually or biannually. Floods only become a
hazard when floodwaters threaten property and put lives at risk.
Floods occur when rivers burst their banks. This may be due to physical or human factors (or a combination of both)

The severity of a flood hazard depends partly on its predictability.
Flash floods, caused by sudden, torrential downpours develop rapidly and are difficult to predict. This makes
them particularly hazardous.
In contrast, heavy and prolonged rainfall often produces slow floods. When rivers rise slowly people have
time to protect their property and evacuate their homes. In large parts of tropical Asia, Africa and South
America, flooding is a predictable part of the climate. Indeed, millions of people in India and Bangladesh
depend on the annual monsoon floods for their survival. In countries like these, human activities have
adapted to the natural cycle of floods, which are essential to farming.


Physical/ natural causes of RIVER flooding Human causes of RIVER flooding
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River discharge - River discharge is defined as the volume of water passing a measuring point or gauging station in a river in a
given time. It is measured in cubic metres per second (cumecs).

The storm hydrograph (shown to the left) shows variations in a
river's discharge over a short period of time, usually during a
rainstorm. The starting and finishing level show the base flow of
the river. As storm water enters the drainage basin the discharge
rises, shown by the rising limb, to reach the peak discharge,
which indicates the highest flow in the channel. The receding
limb shows the fall in the discharge back to the base level. The
time delay between maximum rainfall amount and peak
discharge is the lag time.
Hydrographs are graphs which show river discharge over a
given period of time and show the response of a drainage basin
and its river to a period of rainfall.
A storm hydrograph shows how a river's discharge responds
following a period of heavy rainfall. On a hydrograph, the flood is
shown as a peak above the base (normal) flow of the river.
Analysis of hydrographs can help hydrologists to predict the
likelihood of flooding in a drainage basin. The response of a river
to a rainfall event can be measured in terms of the lag time - the
time between peak rainfall and peak discharge.
Rivers with a short lag time respond rapidly to rainfall events and
are therefore more prone to flooding than rivers with a longer lag
time. River discharge does not respond immediately to rainfall
inputs as only a little of the rainfall will fall directly into the
channel. The river will start to respond initially through inputs
from surface runoff (the fastest flow of water) and its discharge
will later be supplemented through inputs from throughflow and
groundwater flow

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The fastest route to the river is via overland flow. If most of the water in a drainage basin travels in this way, a river will respond
quickly to heavy rainfall and the hydrograph shape will be 'peaky' (graph A) with steep rising and recessional limbs. The lag time
will be short and there will be a greater risk of flooding. Where more water is able to pass into the soil and travel to the river via
throughflow / groundwater flow, there will be a slower rise in discharge and the river will respond slower (graph B). The lag
time will be longer and the risk of flooding will be much lower
Flash floods are unpredictable and often violent. A combination of physical factors is associated with flash floods in
the UK. These include:
Upland areas, where mechanical (ornographic) uplift intensifies convectional storms
Small & steep catchments with high drainage density, which speed up runoff & shorten lag times
Impermeable geology
Limited tree cover
CASE STUDY these conditions were evident in the Ryedale floods in North Yorkshire (2005) and Boscastle in
Cornwall (2004), these examples are covered extensively in the text books
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CASE STUDY: RIVER FLOODING

PHYSICAL CAUSES
- height
- relief
- drainage regime
- climate
- vegetation
- rock type
HUMAN CAUSES
- Settlement building
- Farming
- Deforestation
- drainage
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
SOCIAL IMPACTS
SHORT TERM RESPONSES
LONG TERM RESPONSES (planning &
management)
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APPROACHES TO RIVER FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN THE UK
NON STRUCTURAL MEASURES
APPROACH DESCRIPTION ADVANTAGES/ DISADVANTAGES
Catchment
flood
management
plans CFMP
Holistic approach to environmental management
or drainage basins
Primary concern sustainable flood management
Other environment issues inc. water abstraction,
pollution, land use change, wildlife conservation
2007 River Ribble (pilot study)
plans for 80 in England/ Wales
Drainage basins are natural units. Until recently
they were managed piecemeal by different
agencies e.g. water authorities, Environment
Agency (EA), DEFRA.
CFMPs provide an opportunity for coordinated
planning of environmental resources within
natural geographic units
Afforestation
and land-use
change
changing land use in headwaters to prevent
flooding
afforestation => slower runoff, increases water
loss through evapotranspiration, reduces peak
flows
discouraging artificial drainage in upland
catchments to reduce peak flows
conserving areas of wetland increases lag times
Difficulty getting landowners to agree to land use
changes
Changes such as afforestation and wetland
conservation benefit wildlife and improve
amenity.
Controlling
development
on floodplains
the government provides local authorities with
guidelines to control floodplain development
sustainable development
currently 10% of England is exposed to significant
flood risk
annual cost of damage could be 20 billion a year,
by 2080
Huge demand for housing in the Uk = pressures
to build on the floodplains, including brownfield
sites
Flood
insurance:
exposure and
vulnerability
average claim for a house flooded to a depth of
1m in winter is 35K
insurance companies produce flood risk maps
vulnerability to flooding can be reduced by
designing homes where the ground floors are
garage spaces, and where materials are less easily
damaged by flood water
Insurance premiums will rise as flood hazards
increase with climate change. Many households
will be unable to afford the premiums, or will be
forced to buy insurance with large excesses (e.g.
they pay the first 20K of damage)
Washlands or
flood basins
floodwaters stored temporarily on floodplains,
reducing flood risk to settlements downstream
Washlands can be used for grazing for most of
the year and, when flooded, provide valuable
refuges for wildlife. Washlands work with nature
as they occupy areas that flood naturally.
Flood warnings information provided by the Environment Agency
floodline telephone
websites
3 levels of alert flood watch, flood warning,
severe flood warning
Flood alerts allow people to prepare for flooding
and minimize threats to property and life
Flood risk maps maps published by the EA for rivers and coastal areas
(online)
The EAs flood maps at 1:50,000 give only a
general view of areas at risk.
More detailed maps, based on GPS data will
eventually become available and enable
insurance companies to assess risk more
accurately
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STRUCTURAL MEASURES
APPROACH DESCRIPTION ADVANTAGES/ DISADVANTAGES
Flood
embankments
and levees
flood embankments and walls (often earthen) on
either side of the river channel.
Increase channel capacity = reduce risk of
floodwaters spilling onto the floodplain
Flood embankments are often unslightly and may
cause rivers to flow above the floodplain. If flood
embankments fail the potential damage is much
greater than a normal flood. Embankments can
also raise flood levels, accelerate channel erosion
m and are expensive to build and maintain, and
in the long term are unsustainable
Dams and
reservoirs
Daming of rivers and their tributaries allows
floodwaters to be stored and released gradually
Dam construction involves huge capital costs and
reservoirs may flood valuable farmland and/ or
environmentally important valleys. Unusually
large flood events can overtop dams e.g. Prague
floods, 2002
Dams have benefits e.g. HEP prodiction, water
supply, water based recreation and leisure, such
as Geln Canyon Dam, Arizona and Lake Powell,
Utah
Channel
straightening
Meanders are removed, increasing channel
gradient, flow velocity and depth
straightened channels may be lined with concrete
to prevent meanders reforming
Increasing gradient gives a river surplus energy
which results in it scouring its bed, eroding
laterally and re-establishing its meandering
channel. Straightening a river is only sustainable
if the channel is hardened to prevent erosion.
Channel straightening is also aesthetically
unattractive.
Flood relief
channels
artificial channels are constructed, diverting some
of the flow from a river
e.g. Jubilee River scheme created a river channel
on the River Thames to give flood protection to
communities in Maidenhead, Windsor and Eton
Flood relief channels are effective in preventing
flooding in places they are designed to protect,
but do nothing to prevent flooding further
downstream. They are used infrequently and
hwen empty are unsightly empty concrete boxes


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CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING

Future climate change is likely to increase the risk of flooding severity, frequency and costs of river and coastal
flooding. For this reason governments in many MEDCS are developing sustainable flood management strategies.
INSERT something on the Thames management strategy following winter 2013/4 floods
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27658249
1 June 2014 Last updated at 19:51
Climate change to boost summer flash floods, says study

By Matt McGrath, Environment correspondent, BBC News

Flash flooding struck the north Cornwall village of Boscastle in the
summer of 2004
Global warming will lead to a significant increase in extreme
summer downpours in the UK, a study suggests.
The Met Office and Newcastle University researchers say there could be five times the number of "extreme rainfall
events" exceeding 28mm per hour, under extreme warming projections.
This would cause "really severe" flash flooding in many parts of the UK, according to the scientists. However, they
caution that this result is based on only one computer model. Flash flooding in Britain has had devastating impacts
on communities in recent years.

We are talking about thresholds of 30mm and above in an hour over quite a large area here, which would be
associated with really severe flash flooding Dr Lizzie Kendon, Met Office
20
In Boscastle, north Cornwall, about 200mm (8in) of rain fell in four hours in August 2004 causing a 3m wall of water
to sweep through the village. In the summer of 2012, in Newcastle, the equivalent of a month's rain fell in just two
hours, causing widespread flooding in the city.

Super models
Researchers have struggled to work out how global warming might affect these types of events. Until now, their
climate models have not been good enough to work out the effect on extreme hourly rainfall in the warmer months.
To improve the resolution of their model, researchers in this latest experiment used 1.5km grid spacings instead of
the normal 12km.To gain this extra clarity, the Met Office supercomputer was employed for nine months to run the
simulations. Even then, they could only model the southern half of the UK.


While the total amount of rainfall might decline,
downpours are likely to increase "Most people
would be familiar with this model," Dr Lizzie
Kendon, the report's lead author told BBC
News.

"It is the same one that is used for the weather
forecasts on the BBC, so it is incredibly realistic
and it represents these very intense convective-
type storms that haven't been captured
before."


The researchers used both the low resolution and the high resolution models to examine the climate patterns that
have occurred in recent years and to look ahead to what might happen at the end of this century. They assessed the
period up to the year 2100 using the most high-end climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. When they looked at rainfall patterns for the winter months, they found that both the 12km and
1.5km grid models showed an increase in rainfall. Both models found that summers in the future would be drier
overall. However, when it came to intense downpours, defined as more than 28mm per hour, the higher resolution
model saw a significant increase.

The study suggests that flash flooding events in the summer
could become much more common in the UK. It found that
there could be up to five times the number of events per
hour than we see currently.

"It is dry periods interspersed with these very intense
downpours, and we are talking about thresholds of 30mm
and above in an hour over quite a large area here, which
would be associated with really severe flash flooding," said
Dr Kendon.

The researchers stress that this is the result of just one model run and it is not a definitive forecast. Temperatures
may not rise at the level used in the model. However, the scientists believe that their work shows that global
warming will make downpours a more frequent event in British summers.

"From this model experiment and consistent with our theoretical understanding, we have quite a bit of confidence in
this result." Prof Hayley Fowler, from Newcastle University, who is another author of the paper, said the new study
was an important step to understanding the flooding risks of the future. She hopes that other research groups will
try to replicate the study. "The next steps are to see if these changes are consistent with observed trends in summer
rainfall extremes and changes projected by climate models in other parts of the world," she added.

The study has been published in the journal, Nature Climate Change.