Modeling Sea Level Rise in The Hudson River Estuary

1
Midterm Report:
Modeling Sea Level Rise in
the Hudson River Estuary
Midterm Report:
Modeling Sea Level Rise in
the Hudson River Estuary
Jery R. Stedinger & Wenqi Yi
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Cornell University
in collaboration with
Jery R. Stedinger & Wenqi Yi
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Cornell University
in collaboration with in collaboration with
Kristin Marcell
Special Projects Coordinator
NYS DEC Hudson River Estuary Program
October 2009
in collaboration with
Kristin Marcell
Special Projects Coordinator
NYS DEC Hudson River Estuary Program
October 2009
Hudson
River
Estuary:
Hudson
River
Estuary: Estuary:
Battery
to
Troy Dam
above
Estuary:
Battery
to
Troy Dam
above
Albany:
150 miles
Albany:
150 miles
http://travelhudsonvalley.org/
Estuary Modeling Estuary Modeling
Using publicly available hydrodynamic computer Using publicly available hydrodynamic computer
program HECRAS based upon Hudson Estuary forecast program HECRAS based upon Hudson Estuary forecast
Using publicly available hydrodynamic computer Using publicly available hydrodynamic computer
program HECRAS based upon Hudson Estuary forecast program HECRAS based upon Hudson Estuary forecast
model developed by the NOAA National Weather model developed by the NOAA National Weather
Service (NWS) to describe impact of climate Service (NWS) to describe impact of climate--change change
scenarios on estuary stages. scenarios on estuary stages.
Use data from NOAA, DEC, and USGS to develop Use data from NOAA, DEC, and USGS to develop
model developed by the NOAA National Weather model developed by the NOAA National Weather
Service (NWS) to describe impact of climate Service (NWS) to describe impact of climate--change change
scenarios on estuary stages. scenarios on estuary stages.
Use data from NOAA, DEC, and USGS to develop Use data from NOAA, DEC, and USGS to develop
alternative scenarios and for any recalibration of the alternative scenarios and for any recalibration of the
Hudson Estuary model. Hudson Estuary model.
Will provide public Will provide public--friend informative results. friend informative results.
alternative scenarios and for any recalibration of the alternative scenarios and for any recalibration of the
Hudson Estuary model. Hudson Estuary model.
Will provide public Will provide public--friend informative results. friend informative results.
Model Can Integrate Model Can Integrate
Tidal variation(as observed 4 Tidal variation(as observed 4--5 feet swing) 5 feet swing) Tidal variation(as observed 4 Tidal variation(as observed 4--5 feet swing) 5 feet swing) Tidal variation (as observed, 4 Tidal variation (as observed, 4--5 feet swing) 5 feet swing)
Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average) Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average)
Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft) Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft)
Proposed storm surge (10 foot peak) Proposed storm surge (10 foot peak)
Wind setup Wind setup
Tidal variation (as observed, 4 Tidal variation (as observed, 4--5 feet swing) 5 feet swing)
Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average) Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average)
Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft) Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft)
Proposed storm surge (10 foot peak) Proposed storm surge (10 foot peak)
Wind setup Wind setuppp
Any channel changes, shoreline modifications, Any channel changes, shoreline modifications,
Future land movement (uplift, subsidence) Future land movement (uplift, subsidence)
pp
Any channel changes, shoreline modifications, Any channel changes, shoreline modifications,
Future land movement (uplift, subsidence) Future land movement (uplift, subsidence)
2
Goals for Effort Goals for Effort
Allow public to see river stages over time that result Allow public to see river stages over time that result
from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea
Allow public to see river stages over time that result Allow public to see river stages over time that result
from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea
level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications, level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,
and the relative contribution of each. and the relative contribution of each.
Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates of Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates of
possible water levels in the Hudson estuary with possible water levels in the Hudson estuary with
different climate different climate- -change scenarios. change scenarios.
level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications, level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,
and the relative contribution of each. and the relative contribution of each.
Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates of Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates of
possible water levels in the Hudson estuary with possible water levels in the Hudson estuary with
different climate different climate- -change scenarios. change scenarios.
Allow investigation of value of improved data related to Allow investigation of value of improved data related to
bathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel bathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel
characteristics and tributary flows. characteristics and tributary flows.
Allow investigation of value of improved data related to Allow investigation of value of improved data related to
bathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel bathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel
characteristics and tributary flows. characteristics and tributary flows.
Hudson
River
Estuary
Hudson
River
Estuary Estuary Estuary
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
NWS Forecasts for Albany NWS Forecasts for Albany
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=aly&gage=albn6&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0
Historical
Stage and
Flow
Historical
Stage and
Flow
What would these What would these What would these
look like under
different climate
change scenarios?
What would these
look like under
different climate
change scenarios?
3
Illustrative Model Output Illustrative Model Output
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 01 hr Water Profile - Base Case, t = 01 hr
4
5
6
Illustrative Model Output Illustrative Model Output
7
8
9
Water Profile - Question Water Profile - Question
How can a 5 foot tide How can a 5 foot tide
at the Battery travel 150 miles
to Albany and still be
be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,
despite the energy losses
at the Battery travel 150 miles
to Albany and still be
be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,
despite the energy losses despite the energy losses
to resistance?
despite the energy losses
to resistance?
Hudson
River
Estuary
Hudson
River
Estuary
Troy 600 ft 6 ft
N. Albany 900 ft 17 ft
S. Albany 1100 ft30 ft
Estuary Estuary
PK 2,400 ft 50 ft
Battery 4,500 ft 35 ft
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
Water Profile - Max/Min Water Profile - Max/Min
Max&MinWaterSurface
15
5
5
15
25
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
35
25
DistancefromBattery,
lowestchannelelevationmaximumelevation minimumelevat
Profile - Max/Min High/Low Flows Profile - Max/Min High/Low Flows
25
15
5
5
15
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
35
25
DistancefromBattery,NY(f
lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowmin channelbottomelevation
10
Profile Upper Estuary -
Max/Min High/Low Flows
Profile Upper Estuary -
Max/Min High/Low Flows
25
25
15
5
5
15
600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000 720000 740000 760000 780000 800000
35
25
DistancefromBattery,N
lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowmin channelbottomelevati
Castleton-on-Hudson
Flows only affect estuary stage above Castleton-on-Hudson.
Profile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ft Profile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ft
TidalSwingRange(maxminwatersurfaceelevation
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Di f B NY ( il DistancefromBattery,NY(mile
channelbottom 0ftsealevelrisetidalswingran
2ftsealevelrisetidalswingrange 4ftsealevelrisetidalswing
Tides have 12 hour period - amplitude varies over estuary.
Profile - Max/Min - Storm Surge Profile - Max/Min - Storm Surge
15
25
25
15
5
5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
35
DistancefromBattery,
stormsurgemax stormsurgemin channelbottomeleva
Storm surge is a long wave lasting 1-2 days - no variation.
Key Findings Key Findings
1. What information does one team need from another to complete
their work: NONE
1. What information does one team need from another to complete
their work: NONE
2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make sure
we are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using current
geometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.
3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.
Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works for
public.
4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect final
2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make sure
we are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using current
geometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.
3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.
Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works for
public.
4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect final
product by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how key
factors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.
5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:
Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.
product by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how key
factors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.
5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:
Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.

Modeling Sea Level Rise in The Hudson River Estuary

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