Hamilton Election Issues

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President

lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
EisenbergerwithmayoralleadinHamilton
Largestnumberundecided
TORONTOSEPTEMBER26th,2014Inarandomsamplingofpublicopiniontakenby
theForumPollamong839Hamiltonvoters,justmorethanonequarterwillvote
forFredEisenbergerformayorintheupcomingmunicipalelection(26%),compared
toasixthwhowillvoteforBradClark(17%).Eisenbergerhastwicethesupportof
BrianMcHattie(12%)oranyothercandidates(11%).Thelargestsinglegroup,one
third,arestillundecided(34%).Eisenberger'svoteiscommontomales(30%),the
leastwealthy(31%),renters(32%),provincialNDPvoters(36%),thosewhoagree
HamiltonneedsaRapidTransitsystem(33%),inthedowntownandinDundas(30%
each).BradClark'ssupportischaracteristicoftheoldest(29%),provincialPCvoters
(29%),thosewhodisagreethereisaneedfortransit(27%),whovotedforBob
Bratinalasttime(25%)andinStoneyCreek(26%),Flamborough(25%caution:
smallbasesize)andGlanbrook(39%caution:verysmallbasesize).BrianMcHattie
appealstotheleastwealthy(17%)thebesteducated(postgrad22%)andin
Dundas(22%)
TORONTO
September 26th, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
Justmorethanonequarter
willvoteforFredEisenberger
formayorintheupcoming
municipalelection(26%),
comparedtoasixthwhowill
voteforBradClark(17%).
Morethan8in10areaware
ofFredEisenberger(83%),
andamongthesehis
approvalisattwothirds
(64%).
Onefifthofvotersselect
taxesasthesinglemost
Eisenbergerwithhighestawarenessandapproval
importantissueoutofsix
Morethan8in10areawareofFredEisenberger(83%),andamongthesehis
(20%)inthiscampaign,and
approvalisattwothirds(64%).BradClarkisknowntotwothirds(68%)and
thisisfollowedbyjustfewer
approvedbythemajorityofthem(53%).BrianMcHattiehasawarenessamong
whooptforleadership(16%).
morethanhalfthevoters(57%)andheisapprovedbyonehalfofthem(50%).
Closetoonehalfagree
Hamiltonneedsrapidtransit
Taxesmostimportantissueincampaign
(46%),butjustfewer
Onefifthofvotersselecttaxesasthesinglemostimportantissueoutofsix(20%)in
disagree(42%).
thiscampaign,andthisisfollowedbyjustfewerwhooptforleadership(16%).Then, Inthreescenarioswherejust
economicdevelopment(15%),transitandcityservices(13%each)andpoverty
twocandidatescompete,
(12%).Eisenbergervotersaremostlikelytosayleadershipandeconomic
JohnToryhastheadvantage,
development(20%each),whileBradClark'ssupportersarelikelytocitetaxes(28%)
winningbotha1on1
andtransit(26%).McHattiesupportersareconcernedaboutleadership(25%).
againstDougFord(57%to
35%)andagainstChow(49%
Splitinopiniononneedforrapidtransit
to35%).
ClosetoonehalfagreeHamiltonneedsrapidtransit(46%),butjustfewerdisagree
(42%).Justonetenthdon'thaveanopiniononthisimportantissue
(13%).Agreementwiththeneedforrapidtransitischaracteristicoftheyoungest
(51%),theleastwealthy(54%),renters(57%),mothersofchildren(52%),provincial
Liberals(62%),Eisenberger(59%)andMcHattievoters(62%)andthoseinthe
180BloorStreetW.,#1400
downtown(53%).
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
1
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forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lightrailstronglypreferredtorapidbus,specialtaxrejected
AmongthosewhoagreeHamiltonneedsatransitsystem,thebroadmajorityagree
itrequireslightrail(60%)ratherthanarapidbussolution(28%).Onetenththink
bothareneeded(11%).Whenasked,onlytheminorityagreerapidtransitwill
benefittheirfamilies(36%),comparedtomorethenhalfwhothinkitwillnot(54%).
Whenaskediftheyagreedwithadedicatedtaxtopayforimprovedtransit,two
thirdsdisagree(64%)andfewerthanonequarteragree(23%).Agreementwitha
dedicatedtaxismostlikelytocomefromtheyoungergroups(31%),theleast
wealthy(30%),thewealthier($60Kto$80K33%),thewealthiest(34%),thebest
educated(postgrad43%),McHattiesupporters(50%)andinthedowntown(32%).
"Byhewingadistinctlycentristcoursebetweenthemoreconservativeappealof
BradClarkandBrianMcHattie'sprogressivepopulism,FredEisenbergerseemsto
haveplacedhimselftoadvantageinthemayor'srace,withamonthstilltogo.The
largenumberofundecidedwillhavetobewhittleddown,however,"saidForum
ResearchPresident,Dr.LorneBozinoff.
LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.isthepresidentandfounderofForumResearch.Hecanbe
reachedatlbozinoff@forumresearch.comorat(416)9609603.

416.960.9603
TORONTO
HIGHLIGHTS:
Amongthosewhoagree
Hamiltonneedsatransit
system,thebroadmajority
agreeitrequireslightrail
(60%)ratherthanarapidbus
solution(28%).
"Byhewingadistinctly
centristcoursebetweenthe
moreconservativeappealof
BradClarkandBrian
McHattie'sprogressive
populism,FredEisenberger
seemstohaveplacedhimself
toadvantageinthemayor's
race,withamonthstilltogo.
Thelargenumberof
undecidedwillhavetobe
whittleddown,however,"
saidForumResearch
President,Dr.LorneBozinoff.
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
Methodology
TheForumPollwasconductedbyForumResearchwiththeresultsbasedonan
interactivevoiceresponsetelephonesurveyof839randomlyselectedvotersin
Hamilton,Ontario.ThepollwasconductedonSeptember25th,2014.
TORONTO
Resultsbasedonthetotalsampleareconsideredaccurate+/3.4%,19timesout
of20.Subsampleresultswillbelessaccurate.Marginsoferrorforsubsample
(suchasage,gender)resultsareavailableat
www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp
Whereappropriate,thedatahasbeenstatisticallyweightedbyage,region,and
othervariablestoensurethatthesamplereflectstheactualpopulationaccording
tothelatestCensusdata.
Thisresearchisnotnecessarilypredictiveoffutureoutcomes,butrather,
capturesopinionatonepointintime.ForumResearchconductedthispollasa
publicserviceandtodemonstrateoursurveyresearchcapabilities.Forumhouses
itspollresultsintheDataLibraryoftheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatthe
UniversityofToronto.
WithofficesacrossCanadaandaroundtheworld,100%CanadianownedForum
Researchisoneofthecountrysleadingsurveyresearchfirms.ThisForum
PollandotherpollsmaybefoundatForum'spollarchive
atwww.forumresearch.com/polls.asp
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
MayoralCandidateApprovalRanking
Approve
Disapprove
Aware
FredEisenberger
64
36
83
BradClark
53
47
68
BrianMcHattie
50
50
57
TORONTO
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
Clark/Eisenberg/McHattie
WhowillyousupportformayorinthemunicipalelectiononOctober27,
2014?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
BradClark
FredEisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Someothercandidate
Undecided
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
839
17
26
12
11
34
60
7
30
14
15
33
68
15
21
10
13
41
154
15
29
11
8
35
245
23
22
10
10
34
312
29
25
12
7
27
372
18
30
12
12
28
467
17
23
11
10
39
Region
%
Sample
Clark
Eisenberger
McHattie
Other
Undecided
Tota
l
839
17
26
12
11
34
Downto
wn
Hamilton
169
12
30
17
11
29
Dundas
Stoney
Creek
Flambo
rough
Ancaster
Glanbrook
78
20
30
22
8
20
160
26
19
5
12
39
51
25
8
8
16
43
74
17
20
6
9
48
34
39
22
8
3
26
Education
242
21
Completed
collegeor
university
269
16
Post
graduate
studies
121
13
23
26
27
28
12
10
10
22
11
14
12
34
37
31
38
28
Total
Secondary
schoolorless
Somecollege
oruniversity
Sample
BradClark
Fred
Eisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Someother
candidate
Undecided
839
17
207
18
26
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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ApprovalofFredEisenberger
DoyouapproveordisapproveofFredEisenberger?
[HeardofFredEisenberger]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
754
64
36
43
73
27
50
63
37
142
68
32
222
57
43
297
59
41
329
64
36
425
65
35
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
HouseholdIncome
Total
<$20K
$20$40K
$40$60K
$60$80K
$80$100K
$100$250K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
754
64
36
76
78
22
135
62
38
125
62
38
89
58
42
74
63
37
95
59
41
Region
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
754
64
36
Downtown
Hamilton
149
69
31
Dundas
72
64
36
Stoney
Creek
140
60
40
Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

43
51
49
69
62
38
30
54
46
Education
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
754
64
36
Secondary
schoolorless
185
68
32
Somecollegeor
university
218
60
40
Completedcollege
oruniversity
239
62
38
Postgraduate
studies
112
70
30
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
754
64
36
187
59
41
222
70
30
218
71
29
31
37
63
45
65
35
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
ApprovalofBradClark
DoyouapproveordisapproveofBradClark?
[HeardofBradClark]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
649
53
47
31
49
51
43
53
47
116
50
50
195
55
45
264
56
44
289
44
56
360
60
40
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Region
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
649
53
47
Downtown
Stoney
Dundas
Hamilton
Creek
127
63
132
35
59
30
43
40
66
61
55
65
57
60
34
39
45
35
HouseholdIncome
Total
<$20K
$20$40K
$40$60K
$60$80K
$80$100K
$100$250K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
649
53
47
57
48
52
115
66
34
110
46
54
78
61
39
63
52
48
83
43
57
Education
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
649
53
47
Secondary
schoolorless
157
54
46
Somecollegeor
university
185
59
41
Completedcollege
oruniversity
209
51
49
Postgraduate
studies
98
44
56
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
649
53
47
162
68
32
191
44
56
191
51
49
29
40
60
39
48
52
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
ApprovalofBrianMcHattie
DoyouapproveordisapproveofBrianMcHattie?
[HeardofBrianMcHattie]
Age/Gender
TORONTO

416.960.9603
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
571
50
50
25
68
32
30
55
45
103
50
50
180
44
56
233
41
59
259
44
56
312
56
44
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Region
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
571
50
50
Downtown
Hamilton
122
58
42
62
54
46
Stoney
Creek
96
52
48
Dundas

30
52
48
50
36
64
23
31
69
HouseholdIncome
Total
<$20K
$20$40K
$40$60K
$60$80K
$80$100K
$100$250K
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
571
50
50
39
48
52
100
45
55
99
38
62
69
65
35
61
58
42
79
51
49
Education
Total
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
571
50
50
Secondary
schoolorless
130
50
50
Somecollegeor
university
162
41
59
Completedcollege
oruniversity
189
49
51
Postgraduate
studies
90
66
34
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Approve
Disapprove
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
571
50
50
132
35
65
182
57
43
164
52
48
24
64
36
36
39
61
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
MostImportantIssue
Whichonewillissuewillinfluenceyourvoteinthemunicipalelectionmore
thananyother?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO

416.960.9603
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
839
20
13
16
13
15
12
11
60
14
13
11
14
14
11
23
68
22
13
10
13
13
19
10
154
19
11
17
12
24
10
7
245
28
12
18
9
12
13
9
312
23
16
25
14
11
8
4
372
23
13
16
12
17
10
9
467
18
13
16
13
13
13
13
Sample
Taxes
Transit
Leadership
Cityservices
Economicdevelopment
Poverty
Somethingelse
Region
839
20
13
16
13
Downtown
Hamilton
169
12
17
13
22
78
12
13
29
13
Stoney
Creek
160
29
8
13
8
15
14
12
11
11
12
Total
Sample
Taxes
Transit
Leadership
Cityservices
Economic
development
Poverty
Something
else
Dundas

51
39
11
12
8
74
18
20
21
8
34
26
11
12
5
19
12
15
22
22
14
10
15
MayoralVotePreference
%
Sample
Taxes
Transit
Leadership
Cityservices
Economic
development
Poverty
Somethingelse
839
20
13
16
13
Brad
Clark
186
28
26
14
12
Fred
Eisenberger
205
18
13
20
17
Brian
McHattie
95
10
15
25
9
15
10
20
12
11
6
4
6
5
Total
Other Undecided
75
27
6
11
11
278
20
8
13
11
18
15
18
5
14
26
16
17
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
HamiltonRapidTransitSystem
DoyouagreeordisagreeHamiltonneedsarapidtransitsystem?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
839
46
42
13
60
51
33
16
68
50
37
13
154
50
38
12
245
44
46
10
312
32
57
11
372
43
44
13
467
48
39
12
Region
Total
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don't
know
839
46
42
Downtown
Hamilton
169
53
27
13
19
78
41
52
Stoney
Creek
160
47
43
10
Dundas

51
39
52
74
41
46
34
30
59
13
10
Total
BradClark
FredEisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Other
Undecided
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
839
46
42
13
186
26
65
8
205
59
31
10
95
62
28
10
75
31
58
11
278
45
37
18
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
839
46
42
13
203
32
56
13
237
62
30
7
234
45
41
14
37
39
51
10
50
44
45
11
10
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
RapidTransit:Busesvs.LightRail
Shouldthisrapidtransitsystemberapidbusesorlighttail?
[AgreeHamiltonNeedsaRapidTransitSystem]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
%
Sample
Rapidbuses
Lightrail
Both
Neither
Somethingelse
Don'tknow

416.960.9603
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
348
28
60
11
0
0
1
27
31
54
16
0
0
0
35
26
68
6
0
0
0
77
23
64
10
0
0
3
108
30
57
10
2
1
0
101
30
60
7
0
2
1
150
26
64
8
0
1
1
198
29
57
13
0
0
1
Region
Total
Sample
Rapid
buses
Lightrail
Both
Neither
Something
else
Don't
know
348
Downtown
Hamilton
84
31
Stoney
Creek
69
28
24
21
60
11
0
65
10
0
0
1
Dundas

16
28
15
38
40
30
23
69
4
0
53
8
1
56
4
0
63
7
0
61
16
0
Total
BradClark
FredEisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Other
Undecided
Sample
Rapidbuses
Lightrail
Both
Neither
Somethingelse
Don'tknow
348
28
60
11
0
0
1
46
34
56
7
1
1
0
103
25
66
8
0
0
1
57
14
68
18
0
0
0
27
56
36
8
0
0
0
115
30
57
11
0
0
1
11
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
RapidTransit:FamilyBenefits
Doyouagreeordisagreeimprovedrapidtransitwillbenefityouandyour
family?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
TORONTO
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow

416.960.9603
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
839
36
54
10
60
42
45
13
68
45
48
7
154
38
53
10
245
33
58
9
312
20
71
9
372
35
56
9
467
36
53
11
Region
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don't
know
839
36
54
Downtown
Hamilton
169
51
36
10
13
Total
78
33
58
Stoney
Creek
160
37
54
Dundas

51
25
74
74
31
64
34
18
76
Total
BradClark
FredEisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Other
Undecided
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
839
36
54
10
186
23
73
5
205
45
44
10
95
51
43
6
75
21
69
10
278
34
52
13
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
839
36
54
10
203
20
70
9
237
50
41
9
234
37
52
11
37
35
55
10
50
28
61
11
12
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
RapidTransit:DedicatedTax
Wouldyouapproveordisapproveofadedicatedtaxtofundimproved
transit?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
839
23
64
13
60
23
66
11
68
31
56
13
154
23
62
15
245
19
67
13
312
20
68
12
372
25
63
12
467
21
65
13
Region
Total
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don't
know
839
23
64
Downtown
Hamilton
169
32
54
13
15
78
39
48
Stoney
Creek
160
19
68
14
13
Dundas

51
18
68
74
10
77
34
18
78
13
13
Total
BradClark
FredEisenberger
BrianMcHattie
Other
Undecided
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
839
23
64
13
186
18
70
12
205
26
66
8
95
50
43
7
75
10
77
13
278
18
63
18
ProvincialVote
%
Sample
Agree
Disagree
Don'tknow
Total
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Otherparties
839
23
64
13
203
8
77
15
237
31
57
12
234
29
62
9
37
41
57
3
50
21
70
10
13
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
Formoreinformation:
LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.
President
ForumResearchInc.
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Hamilton Election Issues

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Hamilton Election Issues

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Lorne Bozinoff, President

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

Flamborough Ancaster Glanbrook

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