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9/26/2014 8:44:52 PM
Web Eco 45 Statistics
Final Exam Su 12

Odd end digit of LU ID#

Your LU ID__________________

Name_____________________
9/26/14 8:44:52 PM

INSTRUCTIONS BEFORE THE EXAM:

l. Print out this Word document. You should have 8 separate sheets including this page.
2. Write your name on each separate sheet you submit.
2. The exam is divided into two parts:
* Part I contains 5 short answer questions (total 30 points; 6 points each).
**Part II contains 6 problems (total 70 points; points as noted).
3. Write your answers on the exam sheets that youve printed or the Excel output if you have chosen to use
Excel to do the computations.
Write your name on each page.
Number each page
Write the question number for each answer.
If you use more than one side of a sheet, be sure to note where the rest of your answer is (go to back of
page, see next page, etc).
4. You must show ALL work for full credit for each question. There will be no credit for an answer that has no
explanation. If you use Excel for any problem, you must write out your interpretation of the Excel results on the
output hard copy. Do not assume that I (Prof. King, the grader) will know what any of the numbers produced by
Excel mean or how you chose to input the data or formulas.
5. You can use up to 3.0 hours to complete this midterm exam, excluding housekeeping chores, e.g., printing,
typing and emailing the short answer Word document.

INSTRUCTIONS AFTER THE EXAM: See CS Final Exam folder for details, similar to the Midterm
exam.

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Part I: SHORT ANSWER
1. (6 points) Define and compare/contrast the standard error of the mean and the standard error of the
regression.

2. (6 points) State and Explain Briefly: The Central Limit Theorem and why it is important.

3. (6 points) Define and explain what is meant by least squares regression. What is the basic objective of this
procedure? Use a graph to illustrate the concept. Give one alternative to least squares.

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Part I: SHORT ANSWER (Cont)
4. (6 points) Define the context and concept of Type I and Type II errors. How does one decide which is more
serious?

5. (6 points) In regression analysis, compare and contrast a confidence interval for Y-hat (a point estimate of the
dependent variable) with a prediction interval for Y-hat (the same estimate of the dependent variable).

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Part II: PROBLEMS
l. a. (7 points) Professor K was concerned that teaching Intro Statistics on the Web adversely affected students'
performance on statistics midterm exams. From the population of all past scores for exams he has given to oncampus classes, he knows that the mean score has been 59 points and the standard deviation was 10 points.
This summer he gave a midterm to 64 web-based students and the mean grade was a 61. What is the
significance level that would be necessary to accept the conclusion using electronic teaching methods did have a
significant negative impact on the mean grade? Explain and document your answer with a graph. (Hint: This
is a one population test for Intro Stat students.)

b. (3 points) Based on your answer to a, do you think the web approach has had a significant detrimental effect
on the exams of these 64 students?

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2. (10 points) The Bethlehem Christmas City (CC) Fair organizers are planning the early September 2012
annual program. They will provide free refreshments to the 2600 special guests who have been invited to attend
the opening ceremonies at the 2012 CC Fair. The planners want to have enough food on hand so they have
hired you to estimate the proportion of guests who will come to the opening event. In the past, 60 percent of the
invited guests have come to similar special events. The planners ask you for an estimate within 1.0 percent of
the true proportion so that they can have 99% confidence in the final estimate. How many of the potential 2600
invited guests should you sample to meet these requirements? Explain your answer fully.

3a. (7 points) In planning for the August 1, 2012, game of the new LV Iron Pigs minor league baseball team, a
random survey of 27 fans who have already bought tickets indicated that the estimated mean planned gamerelated expenses for this game will be $ 45 per person with an estimated variance of 64 $2. Assume all
expenditures that will be made by the forecasted 4000 attendees will be approximately normally distributed.
Estimate with 98% confidence the mean amount per person and then the total amount by which the selling
businesses can expect sales to increase due to game attendees.

b. (3 points) Interpret your answer to (a) in accordance with the exact meaning of "confidence interval."

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4. The owner relations manager of a major automobile manufacturer has found in the past that 70 percent of all
new owner complaints could be resolved by recommending immediate dealer attention to the problem. The
company has just begun selling a new model. However, for this particular car only 30 out of 50 recent buyers
have been satisfied by a speedy call from the dealer attending to the complaint. (Hint: n = 50 and assume the
normal distribution applies at least approximately.)
a. (7points) Would you advise upper management that, at the 5% significance level, this recent evidence
represents a significant reduction in proportion of satisfied buyers, so the company needs a new program to
solve problems encountered from this new car model? Explain clearly and completely. (Include your decision
rule.)

b. (3 points) Sketch the power curve for the hypothesis above to show what happens to the probability of a
Type II error if the true proportion of complaints satisfied by immediate dealer attention is .55 and not .70?

5. The scores on a qualifying exam for graduate school are known to have a pdf with a mean of 580 and a
standard deviation of 30 points.
a. (5 points) If you also know that the scores can be assumed to be normally distributed, what is the probability
that a student will score between 600 and 650?

b (5 points) If 25 of your classmates in undergraduate school take this test and the standard deviation of 30
points was estimated from this student group, what is the probability that the mean grade for your colleagues
will exceed 585?

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6. Use the data file (Alumni Giving) on alumni giving at 48 colleges and university (ASW Ch 15, Case
Problem 2, p. 705-6, for a brief description) from the CS Final Exam folder. Note there are 5 US regions added
as one more variable to ASWs original Excel data set Alumni:
Northeast (ne), Middle Atlantic (ma), South (s), North Central (ncent) and West (w)
If your last name begins with the following letters use the data for the following areas for the subproblems below:
A-R use the sample of schools from Western (w) states
S-Z use the sample of schools from Middle Atlantic (ma) states
Reminder: write your explanations on the Excel output that documents your reasoning, showing what part of the
output goes with which part of your answer. Dont forget to write your name and the page number on each
sheet of Excel output.
a. (4 points) Provide Excel descriptive statistics for your areas alumni giving rate then explain and verbally
compare the descriptive statistics for central tendency and dispersion for your area vs. rest of the 48 schools.

b. (6 points) We wish to test whether your assigned area schools have a significantly different mean for the
alumni giving rate than the rest of the 48 schools. State the hypotheses for a two-population test; explain your
sampling distribution, use Excel to find the approximate p-value for your test and state your conclusion
(decision).

c. (2 points) From your Excel output, does your conclusion (decision) from b change if the test was for a
higher mean of one area over the other? Explain.

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1 d. (3 points) Explain which single variable is the best predictor of the three independent variables for alumni
giving rate for your area. Provide Excel output for each simple regression; explain and analyze each of the
three estimated models and how to compare among them.

e. (4 points) What is the best multiple regression model for your area for all three independent variables?
Provide Excel output; explain and analyze the results for each coefficient and the overall estimated equation.

f. (1 point) Interpret (explain in words) any one confidence interval estimate from the Excel output. Be sure to
highlight or otherwise show where on the Excel output you found this interval.